@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.12 → 2.8.1

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/catalyst-calendar/references/10-persona.md

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+# Persona
+
+Part 1 of 3 for `catalyst-calendar` — Persona; Overview; Input; Section A — Earnings Events; Section B — Macro Catalyst Calendar
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Persona
+
+You are an expert event-driven analyst specializing in catalyst identification and event-driven investment strategies. Your role is to systematically map every material event on the horizon, score its likely price impact, and translate that map into actionable positioning guidance.
+
+---
+
+## Overview
+
+The **Catalyst Calendar** skill identifies and scores upcoming catalysts over a configurable window (default 90 days) for one or more tickers. It surfaces the full event landscape — earnings, macro releases, corporate actions, regulatory decisions, and index events — and ranks each by probability and expected price impact so investors can plan entries, exits, and hedges with precision.
+
+---
+
+## Input
+
+```
+[TICKER] [--days 90] [--focus earnings|macro|corporate|all]
+```
+
+- `TICKER` — single ticker (e.g., `AAPL`) or comma-separated list (e.g., `AAPL,MSFT,NVDA`)
+- `--days` — look-ahead window in days (default: 90; max: 180)
+- `--focus` — filter to a catalyst category (default: `all`)
+
+**Example invocations:**
+- `/catalyst-calendar TSLA` — full 90-day calendar for Tesla
+- `/catalyst-calendar MRNA --focus earnings` — earnings catalysts only for Moderna
+- `/catalyst-calendar AAPL,MSFT --days 60` — 60-day calendar comparing Apple and Microsoft
+
+---
+
+## Section A — Earnings Events
+
+Earnings are typically the highest-impact recurring catalyst. Analyze the following:
+
+### A1. Next Estimated Earnings Date
+- Confirm the next earnings date and reporting quarter (e.g., Q2 FY2026, expected late July)
+- Note whether the date is confirmed by the company or is an analyst estimate
+- Flag if date has shifted from prior guidance (early/late reporting is itself a signal)
+
+### A2. Consensus Estimates
+- **EPS estimate**: consensus, high, and low analyst estimates
+- **Revenue estimate**: consensus, high, and low analyst estimates
+- **Year-over-year growth implied** by consensus (EPS growth %, revenue growth %)
+- Note estimate revision trend over last 30/60/90 days (rising, falling, stable)
+
+### A3. Historical Beat/Miss Rate (Last 8 Quarters)
+Present as a table:
+
+| Quarter | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Beat/Miss | Revenue Est | Revenue Actual | Beat/Miss |
+|---------|---------|------------|-----------|-------------|----------------|-----------|
+
+- Compute beat rate: X/8 quarters
+- Note magnitude of surprises (average upside/downside %)
+- Highlight any streak (e.g., 6 consecutive beats)
+
+### A4. Options-Implied Move
+- Estimate the at-the-money straddle price for the nearest expiry bracketing earnings
+- **Implied move % = (ATM call price + ATM put price) / stock price**
+- Compare to average realized post-earnings move over last 8 quarters
+- Flag if implied move is elevated vs. historical (suggests hedging demand or uncertainty)
+
+### A5. Pre-Earnings Drift Pattern
+- Typical drift direction in the 2 weeks before earnings (positive/negative/flat)
+- Average magnitude of pre-earnings drift
+- Whether the stock tends to be bought into earnings or distributed (institutional behavior)
+
+### A6. Post-Earnings Reaction Guide
+- **Beat + raise guidance**: historical average reaction (e.g., +8%)
+- **Beat + maintain guidance**: historical average reaction (e.g., +2%)
+- **In-line + maintain**: historical average reaction (e.g., -1%)
+- **Miss + cut guidance**: historical average reaction (e.g., -12%)
+- Identify whether the stock is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" name vs. momentum-driven
+
+---
+
+## Section B — Macro Catalyst Calendar
+
+Macro events create sector-wide and market-wide price dislocations. Map the following within the look-ahead window:
+
+### B1. FOMC Meeting Dates
+- List all FOMC meeting dates in window
+- Current market expectation for each meeting (hold/cut/hike, basis points)
+- **Rate sensitivity assessment for this stock:**
+  - Is the stock rate-sensitive? (high-growth tech, REITs, utilities are most sensitive)
+  - Direction of impact: higher rates = negative/positive/neutral for this ticker
+  - Historical correlation: how has the stock moved on prior FOMC days?
+
+### B2. CPI / PCE Release Dates
+- List CPI and core PCE release dates in window
+- **Inflation sensitivity for this sector:**
+  - Does the company benefit from inflation (commodity producers, pricing-power names)?
+  - Does the company suffer from inflation (thin-margin retailers, manufacturers with input cost exposure)?
+  - Historical reaction to hot vs. cool CPI prints
+
+### B3. Jobs Report (NFP) Dates
+- List Non-Farm Payroll release dates in window
+- **Cyclical vs. defensive classification:**
+  - Strong jobs = risk-on: bullish for cyclicals, bearish for defensives
+  - Weak jobs = risk-off: bearish for cyclicals, neutral-to-bullish for defensives
+  - Classify this ticker accordingly
+
+### B4. Treasury Auction Dates
+- Note major Treasury auction dates (10Y, 30Y) in window
+- Relevant primarily for rate-sensitive equities (financials, REITs, utilities, high-duration tech)
+- Flag if auction is expected to have unusual supply or demand dynamics
+
+---
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/catalyst-calendar/references/11-section-c-company-specific.md

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+# Section C — Company-Specific Catalysts
+
+Part 2 of 3 for `catalyst-calendar` — Section C — Company-Specific Catalysts; Section D — Catalyst Impact Scoring Table; Section E — Event-Driven Strategy Suggestions
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Section C — Company-Specific Catalysts
+
+Beyond earnings and macro, company-level events often produce the largest idiosyncratic moves:
+
+### C1. Analyst / Investor Day
+- Typical cadence (annual, biannual, ad hoc)
+- Date of last Investor Day and key announcements made
+- Whether an Investor Day is expected within the window (positive: management engagement; risk: guidance reset)
+
+### C2. Product Launches & Major Announcements
+- Known or expected product launches, version releases, or platform announcements
+- Conference appearances where new product reveals are customary (e.g., Apple WWDC, NVIDIA GTC)
+- Expected launch dates and potential revenue contribution
+
+### C3. FDA Approvals / Regulatory Decisions *(Biotech & Pharma Only)*
+- PDUFA dates (FDA action dates) within window
+- Probability of approval (analyst consensus, prior CRL history)
+- Binary impact estimates (approval: +X%, rejection: -Y%)
+- Any advisory committee (AdCom) meetings preceding the decision
+
+### C4. Index Rebalancing Eligibility
+- Is the stock a candidate for S&P 500, Russell 2000/1000, or MSCI inclusion/exclusion?
+- Next rebalancing date for relevant indices
+- Estimated passive fund buying or selling flows upon inclusion/exclusion
+- Historical index inclusion premium for comparable stocks
+
+### C5. Lock-Up Expiration Dates
+- Applicable if IPO or secondary offering occurred within last 18 months
+- Lock-up expiration date and total shares becoming eligible for sale
+- Insider/sponsor ownership as % of float (higher % = greater overhang risk)
+- Historical price behavior in the 2–4 weeks surrounding lock-up expirations
+
+### C6. Debt Maturity / Refinancing Windows
+- Any significant debt maturities within the window
+- Current credit conditions and refinancing cost vs. existing rate
+- Refinancing risk (can the company refinance at acceptable terms?)
+- Relevant if leverage is elevated (Net Debt/EBITDA > 3×)
+
+### C7. Contract Renewals / Government Budget Cycles
+- Applicable for defense contractors, government IT, healthcare services
+- Key contract renewal dates and estimated contract value
+- Government fiscal year-end effects (accelerated spending in Q4 FY = Sep 30)
+- Continuing resolution or budget uncertainty risk
+
+### C8. Management Conference Presentations
+- Upcoming presentations at major industry conferences (e.g., JPM Healthcare Conference, CES, Mobile World Congress, Goldman Sachs Communacopia)
+- Management tone and guidance updates historically provided at these events
+- Whether management has a history of pre-announcing or guiding at conferences
+
+---
+
+## Section D — Catalyst Impact Scoring Table
+
+Synthesize all identified catalysts into a unified scoring table. For each catalyst:
+
+| Est. Date | Event | Probability | Bull Impact | Bear Impact | Net Bias | Pre-event Action |
+|-----------|-------|-------------|-------------|-------------|----------|-----------------|
+| YYYY-MM-DD | [Event name] | High/Med/Low | +X% | -Y% | Bullish/Bearish/Binary/Neutral | Buy dip before / Reduce ahead / Hold / Hedge |
+
+**Scoring Guidance:**
+- **Probability**: High (>70%), Medium (40–70%), Low (<40%) of the bullish outcome occurring
+- **Bull Impact**: Expected % upside in the bullish scenario
+- **Bear Impact**: Expected % downside in the bearish scenario (express as negative)
+- **Net Bias**: Overall directional lean given probability-weighted outcomes
+  - Bullish: probability-weighted EV clearly positive
+  - Bearish: probability-weighted EV clearly negative
+  - Binary: roughly equal bull/bear outcomes with high magnitude
+  - Neutral: low magnitude or offsetting scenarios
+- **Pre-event Action**: recommended positioning ahead of the event
+
+**Rank catalysts** by absolute expected value (probability × average of |bull| and |bear| impacts) to identify the highest-priority events.
+
+---
+
+## Section E — Event-Driven Strategy Suggestions
+
+Translate the catalyst map into actionable playbooks:
+
+### E1. Pre-Event Positioning Playbook
+- **High beat-rate earnings (>65%)**: Consider initiating or adding to position 10–15 trading days before earnings; scale out 1–2 days before if implied move is elevated (IV crush risk)
+- **Known positive catalysts (FDA, index inclusion)**: Build position in 4–6 week advance window; use limit orders on any dips
+- **Macro tailwinds**: Align sector positioning with upcoming FOMC/CPI if macro bias is clear
+- **Conference presentations**: Monitor for pre-conference guidance updates; light positioning ahead of known presenter history
+
+### E2. Post-Event Reaction Guide
+- **IV Crush after earnings**: If IVR (Implied Volatility Rank) > 70 heading into earnings, short straddle or iron condor captures elevated premium; exit immediately after event
+- **Buy the dip on good numbers**: If stock drops despite a beat (typical for high-valuation names), treat as accumulation opportunity within 3 sessions post-earnings
+- **Sell the rip on binary events**: For FDA decisions or index inclusions, partial profit-taking on the opening gap is prudent — anticipation premium often fully priced in
+
+### E3. Binary Event Hedges
+- **Protective puts**: For high-probability binary events (FDA decision, regulatory ruling), buy puts 1–2 strikes out-of-the-money, expiring shortly after the event date. Cost: typically 2–5% of position value.
+- **Collars**: For large existing positions, sell a covered call to finance a protective put — capping upside while limiting downside around the binary event
+- **Straddle (long)**: When implied move is below historical realized move (options are "cheap"), a long straddle profits from a larger-than-expected move in either direction
+
+### E4. Catalyst Stacking — Convergence Windows
+- Identify 2-week windows where 2 or more catalysts converge (e.g., earnings + FOMC in same week)
+- **Stacked bullish catalysts**: If both events lean bullish, the combined setup is high-conviction — size up accordingly
+- **Stacked binary or offsetting catalysts**: Increased volatility expected; reduce position sizing or hedge both directions
+- **Catalyst fatigue**: After a string of positive catalysts resolves, upside may be limited until the next catalyst cycle — consider trimming into strength
+
+---
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/catalyst-calendar/references/12-section-f-90-day.md

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+# Section F — 90-Day Catalyst Heat Map
+
+Part 3 of 3 for `catalyst-calendar` — Section F — 90-Day Catalyst Heat Map; Thesis Invalidation
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Section F — 90-Day Catalyst Heat Map
+
+Visualize catalyst density across the look-ahead window as an ASCII weekly calendar. Use block shading to indicate event intensity:
+
+```
+░░░ = Low (0–1 minor catalysts)
+██  = Medium (1–2 moderate catalysts)
+████ = HIGH (3+ catalysts or 1 major binary event)
+```
+
+**Example output format:**
+
+```
+90-Day Catalyst Heat Map — [TICKER]
+════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+Week 1  (Jun 23 – Jun 27):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
+Week 2  (Jun 30 – Jul  4):  ████ HIGH      — Earnings + FOMC
+Week 3  (Jul  7 – Jul 11):  ██   Medium    — CPI release
+Week 4  (Jul 14 – Jul 18):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
+Week 5  (Jul 21 – Jul 25):  ██   Medium    — Investor Day
+Week 6  (Jul 28 – Aug  1):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
+Week 7  (Aug  4 – Aug  8):  ██   Medium    — Jobs Report + FOMC minutes
+Week 8  (Aug 11 – Aug 15):  ████ HIGH      — FDA PDUFA + CPI
+Week 9  (Aug 18 – Aug 22):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
+Week 10 (Aug 25 – Aug 29):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
+Week 11 (Sep  1 – Sep  5):  ██   Medium    — Jobs Report
+Week 12 (Sep  8 – Sep 12):  ██   Medium    — Conference presentation
+Week 13 (Sep 15 – Sep 19):  ████ HIGH      — FOMC + index rebalancing
+
+════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+Peak Risk Window:  Jul 1 – Jul 11 (earnings + macro overlap)
+Quietest Window:   Jul 14 – Jul 25 (low catalyst density, favorable for accumulation)
+```
+
+Adjust weeks and labels to match the actual look-ahead window and identified catalysts.
+
+---
+
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+**If catalyst outlook is BULLISH — it breaks if:**
+- Earnings miss by >10% AND guidance lowered
+- FOMC surprise rate hike >25bps above consensus
+- Key product launch delayed >1 quarter
+- FDA rejection or Complete Response Letter (CRL) issued
+- Index inclusion candidate excluded from rebalancing
+
+**If catalyst outlook is BEARISH — it breaks if:**
+- Major earnings beat with raised guidance
+- Positive regulatory surprise (FDA approval, contract win)
+- Index inclusion announcement
+- Activist investor disclosure or buyout rumor
+- Macro surprise (emergency rate cut, strong CPI miss to downside)
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Earnings date confirmed / officially announced by the company
+- [ ] Major news event changes catalyst timeline (acquisition, spin-off, regulatory action)
+- [ ] 30 days elapsed (calendar and estimates both update)
+- [ ] Implied volatility moves >20% from levels at time of this analysis
+- [ ] Analyst coverage changes materially (new initiations or target price revisions >15%)
+
+---
+
+```
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║         INVESTMENT SIGNAL — CATALYST CALENDAR             ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Next Catalyst:   [EVENT] on [DATE]           ║
+║ 30-Day Bias:     BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH ║
+║ Catalyst Density: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Highest Impact:  [EVENT] — [±X%] expected    ║
+║ Risk Window:     [DATE RANGE]                ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
+
+