@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.12 → 2.8.1

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/references/11-ownership-concentration-analysis.md

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+# Analysis Framework(continued)
+
+Part 2 of 4 for `institutional-ownership` — Analysis Framework
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+### 5. Ownership Concentration Analysis
+
+Assess how concentrated institutional ownership is:
+
+**Concentration Metrics**
+- **Top 3 holders**: [%] of shares outstanding
+- **Top 10 holders**: [%] of shares outstanding
+- **Top 25 holders**: [%] of shares outstanding
+- **HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index)**: [Score] (concentration measure)
+
+**Interpretation**
+- **High concentration** (Top 10 > 50%):
+  - Pro: Strong conviction from major holders
+  - Con: Volatile if large holder exits
+  - Common in: Small-caps, founder-led companies
+
+- **Medium concentration** (Top 10 = 30-50%):
+  - Balanced ownership structure
+  - Most large-cap companies
+
+- **Low concentration** (Top 10 < 30%):
+  - Widely distributed ownership
+  - More stable, less influenced by single holder
+  - Common in: Mega-caps, index heavyweights
+
+**Turnover Analysis**
+- Holder retention rate: [%] of holders from 1 year ago still holding
+- New entrants (last 12 months): [N] institutions
+- Complete exits (last 12 months): [N] institutions
+- Net holder change: [+/-N]
+
+**Stability Assessment**
+- High retention + new entrants = Strengthening conviction (Bullish)
+- High retention + no new entrants = Stable (Neutral)
+- Low retention + exits = Weakening conviction (Bearish)
+
+### 6. Activist & Strategic Holders
+
+Identify and analyze activist investors or strategic stakeholders:
+
+**Activist Investors (>5% ownership or known activist activity)**
+
+For each activist position:
+- **Investor Name & Fund**
+- **Ownership %**: Current stake
+- **Entry Date & Price**: When position was initiated
+- **Current Value**: Mark-to-market
+- **Activist Thesis**: What changes they're pushing for
+- **Progress**: Status of their initiatives
+- **Track Record**: Success rate in similar situations
+
+**Types of Activist Campaigns**
+1. **Operational Improvements**: Cost cuts, margin expansion, divestitures
+2. **Capital Allocation**: Increased buybacks, dividends, M&A
+3. **Strategic Alternatives**: Sale of company, merger, spin-offs
+4. **Board Changes**: New directors, CEO replacement
+5. **Governance**: ESG initiatives, compensation reforms
+
+**Impact Assessment**
+- Historical success rate of this activist at peer companies
+- Management's receptiveness to proposals
+- Other shareholders' support
+- Potential value unlock if successful
+- Timeline to value realization
+
+### 7. Portfolio Weight Analysis
+
+Analyze how important the position is to each holder:
+
+**High-Conviction Holders** (Position is >5% of their portfolio)
+| Institution | Shares | Value ($M) | % of Their Portfolio | Rank in Portfolio | Recent Action |
+|-------------|--------|------------|---------------------|-------------------|---------------|
+| Akre Capital | 4.2M | $630 | 8.5% | #2 holding | Increased |
+| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
+
+**Interpretation**
+- **High portfolio weight**: Strong conviction, more research depth
+- **Top 10 holding**: Likely actively managed and monitored
+- **Increases to high-conviction holding**: Very bullish signal
+- **Decreases from high-conviction**: Concerning if thesis change
+
+**Position Sizing Trends**
+- How many institutions have it as top 10 holding: [N]
+- How many increased portfolio weight: [N] (bullish)
+- How many decreased portfolio weight: [N] (bearish)
+- Average portfolio weight: [%]
+
+### 8. Stock Price Performance Correlation
+
+Analyze relationship between ownership changes and stock performance:
+
+**Performance During Institutional Activity**
+```
+Period: [Qn YYYY]
+Institutional Change: [±%] ownership (net buying / selling)
+Stock Price Change: [±%]
+S&P 500 Change: [±%]
+Outperformance: [±%]
+```
+
+**Historical Pattern Analysis**
+- Correlation between institutional buying and subsequent returns
+- Lead/lag relationship (do institutions front-run or follow?)
+- Performance after smart money buys vs. sells
+
+**Predictive Value**
+- **High predictive value scenarios**:
+  - Multiple smart money managers buying
+  - Activist initiating position
+  - Institutions buying during weakness
+  - First-time institutional coverage
+
+- **Low predictive value scenarios**:
+  - Index rebalancing flows
+  - ETF creation/redemption
+  - Tax-loss selling end-of-year
+  - Merger arbitrage activity
+
+### 9. Data Sources & Filing Requirements
+
+Reference the following sources for institutional ownership data:
+
+**Primary Source - SEC 13F Filings**
+- **What**: Quarterly holdings reports required of institutional investment managers exercising investment discretion over **≥ $100 million in Section 13(f) securities** (the test is 13(f) securities under management, not the firm's total AUM)
+- **Who**: Institutional investment managers
+- **When**: Filed within 45 days of quarter-end
+- **Where**: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&type=13F
+
+**13F Filing Calendar**
+- Q1 (Mar 31) → Filed by May 15
+- Q2 (Jun 30) → Filed by Aug 14
+- Q3 (Sep 30) → Filed by Nov 14
+- Q4 (Dec 31) → Filed by Feb 14
+
+**Important Limitations**
+- 45-day lag (data is stale)
+- Only long positions reported (shorts not disclosed)
+- Options and ADRs may not be reported
+- Some holdings can be confidentially withheld
+- $200K or 10,000 share threshold per position
+
+**Schedule 13D/G Filings** (>5% ownership)
+- **13D**: Activist investors with intent to influence
+  - Initial filing within **5 business days** of crossing 5% (SEC rule effective 2024-02-05; previously 10 calendar days)
+  - Amendments for material changes (≥ 1%) within **2 business days**
+  - Includes plans and intentions
+
+- **13G**: Passive investors, no control intent
+  - Deadlines depend on filer type (revised schedule in force since 2024-09-30): qualified institutional investors — 45 days after the quarter-end in which they cross 5%, or 5 business days after month-end once above 10%; passive investors — 5 business days after crossing 5%; exempt investors — 45 days after quarter-end
+  - Verify the current deadline on sec.gov before dating a filing as late
+  - Simplified reporting for passive positions
+
+**Aggregator Services**
+- **WhaleWisdom.com**: Free 13F database with analytics
+- **Dataroma**: Tracks super investor portfolios
+- **GuruFocus**: Premium institutional tracking
+- **Whalewisdom**: Advanced screening and alerts
+- **Bloomberg/FactSet**: Comprehensive institutional data (paid)
+
+
+This section is not finished here: `Analysis Framework` continues in `references/12-red-flags-warning-signs.md`.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/references/12-red-flags-warning-signs.md

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+# Analysis Framework(continued)
+
+Part 3 of 4 for `institutional-ownership` — Analysis Framework; Input Formats; Output; Interpretation Guidelines; Usage Examples; Integration Notes; Standard Signal Output
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+### 10. Red Flags & Warning Signs
+
+Identify concerning patterns in institutional ownership:
+
+**High-Severity Red Flags**
+- Multiple smart money managers exiting simultaneously
+- Decreasing ownership despite rising stock price (selling into strength)
+- Activist investor exiting after failed campaign
+- Large holders selling >50% of position
+- Net institutional selling for 3+ consecutive quarters
+
+**Medium-Severity Red Flags**
+- Increasing number of holder exits (even if small positions)
+- Declining portfolio weights across multiple holders
+- No new institutional buyers despite attractive valuation
+- High turnover among holders (low retention)
+
+**Positive Signals**
+- Smart money buying during market selloff
+- New positions from value-oriented long-term holders
+- Activist entering with specific value-creation plan
+- Increasing high-conviction holdings (>5% of portfolio)
+- Multiple quarters of consistent net institutional buying
+
+## Input Formats
+
+### Format 1: Ticker Symbol
+```
+User: /institutional-ownership AAPL
+
+Claude retrieves latest 13F data and analyzes recent changes
+```
+
+### Format 2: Specific Holder Tracking
+```
+User: /institutional-ownership TSLA --track "Berkshire,ARK,Scion"
+
+Claude focuses on specific institutional holders' activity
+```
+
+### Format 3: Custom Data Analysis
+```
+User: /institutional-ownership --data
+
+[Paste 13F data table from WhaleWisdom or SEC]
+
+Claude analyzes provided institutional holdings data
+```
+
+## Output
+
+Provide comprehensive institutional ownership analysis report with:
+
+### 1. Executive Summary
+- **Overall Institutional Sentiment**: Bullish / Neutral / Bearish
+- **Confidence Level**: High / Medium / Low
+- **Key Findings**: 3-5 most important insights
+- **Investment Signal**: Buy / Hold / Sell indication
+- **Smart Money Direction**: Net buying / selling
+
+### 2. Ownership Overview
+- Current institutional ownership %
+- Trend over last 4 quarters
+- Number of holders and change
+- Total value held
+
+### 3. Top 10 Holders
+Detailed table with position sizes, changes, and portfolio weights
+
+### 4. Recent Activity Summary
+- New positions count and notable investors
+- Increased positions (>25% increases)
+- Decreased positions (>25% decreases)
+- Eliminated positions
+
+### 5. Smart Money Tracker
+Notable investors' activity with signal strength assessment
+
+### 6. Ownership Concentration
+- Top 3/10/25 holder concentration
+- Turnover and stability metrics
+- Assessment of ownership structure
+
+### 7. Activist & Strategic Holdings
+Any activist investors or strategic stakeholders (>5% ownership)
+
+### 8. High-Conviction Holders
+Institutions with >5% portfolio weight in this stock
+
+### 9. Performance Correlation
+Stock performance during periods of institutional buying/selling
+
+### 10. Red Flags & Positive Signals
+- Warning signs identified
+- Bullish indicators present
+- Severity assessment
+
+### 11. Investment Implications
+- Overall assessment and confidence
+- Key bullish factors from institutional data
+- Key bearish factors or concerns
+- Recommended action
+- Key levels/catalysts to monitor
+
+### 12. Data Sources & Timing
+- 13F filing quarter analyzed
+- Number of 13F filings reviewed
+- Any data limitations or gaps
+
+## Interpretation Guidelines
+
+### When Institutional Buying is STRONGLY Bullish
+1. Smart money managers initiating or significantly increasing (>50%)
+2. Multiple value investors buying same stock
+3. Activist investor initiating with specific value-creation plan
+4. Net institutional buying for 3+ consecutive quarters
+5. Buying during market weakness (contrarian signal)
+
+### When Institutional Buying is MODERATELY Bullish
+1. Increasing ownership trend (1-2 quarters)
+2. Growing number of institutional holders
+3. New positions from credible active managers
+4. Increasing portfolio weights across multiple holders
+
+### When Institutional Selling is LESS Concerning
+1. Index fund rebalancing (mechanical selling)
+2. Profit-taking after significant appreciation
+3. Small position eliminations (<1% of portfolio)
+4. Single quarter of selling after long accumulation
+5. Sector rotation or style drift
+
+### When Institutional Selling is CONCERNING
+1. Smart money managers exiting completely
+2. Activist investors giving up and selling
+3. Selling during stock decline (lack of confidence)
+4. Multiple quarters of net institutional selling
+5. Decreasing number of holders
+
+### Signal Reliability Factors
+- **Quality of holders**: Smart money > Index funds
+- **Conviction level**: High portfolio weights = stronger signal
+- **Consistency**: Multiple quarters of buying/selling = stronger
+- **Context**: Buying weakness or selling strength = stronger signal
+- **Magnitude**: Large position changes = stronger signal
+
+## Usage Examples
+
+### Example 1: Basic Analysis
+```
+User: /institutional-ownership NVDA
+
+Claude: Reads the latest quarter's 13F filings and reports the change in
+institutional ownership, new and exited holders, and the largest adds and
+trims by named manager, then closes with the signal block.
+```
+
+### Example 2: Smart Money Tracking
+```
+User: /institutional-ownership META --smart-money
+
+Claude: Restricts the holder analysis to the smart-money list above and
+reports each manager's position change for the quarter.
+```
+
+### Example 3: Comparative Analysis
+```
+User: /institutional-ownership AAPL MSFT GOOGL --compare
+
+Claude: Runs the same ownership-trend and smart-money checks on each ticker
+and ranks them by net institutional accumulation.
+```
+
+## Integration Notes
+
+- Combine with /insider-trading for complete ownership analysis
+- Use with /stock-eval for comprehensive due diligence
+- Feed to /report-generator for visual ownership trend charts
+- Best used quarterly after 13F filing deadlines (May, Aug, Nov, Feb)
+- Particularly valuable for small-mid cap stocks where institutional buying can be catalyst
+- Less meaningful for mega-caps where ownership changes are primarily index-driven
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/references/13-thesis-invalidation.md

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+# Thesis Invalidation
+
+Part 4 of 4 for `institutional-ownership` — Thesis Invalidation
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- top 3 holders reduce positions by >20% in a single quarter
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- 2+ top-tier institutions (BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity) initiate new positions
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
+- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
+- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
+
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+**Score Guide**: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+**Confidence**: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+**Horizon**: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
+
+