@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.12 → 2.8.1

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/SKILL.md

@@ -40,417 +40,16 @@ Data & Sources
 
 Comprehensive analysis of earnings call transcripts to extract investment insights, management sentiment, strategic themes, and potential red flags.
 
-## Analysis Framework
+## Read the Parts
 
-### 1. Executive Summary Analysis
+Everything below the surface of this file lives in `references/`. **whole, with no line window** — quoting a rule or a template out of a slice of one is how a
+file gets reported as read when it was only skimmed. The file names below are the only
+addressing this entry has.
 
-Extract and synthesize:
-- **Overall Sentiment**: Bullish / Neutral / Bearish
-- **Key Takeaways**: 3-5 most important points from the call
-- **Guidance Changes**: Raised / Maintained / Lowered / Withdrawn
-- **Surprise Factors**: Unexpected announcements or revelations
-- **Market-Moving Statements**: Comments likely to impact stock price
+- `references/10-analysis-framework.md` — Analysis Framework
+- `references/11-data-sources.md` — Data Sources; Input Formats; Output; Analysis Guidelines; Usage Examples; Integration Notes; Standard Signal Output
+- `references/12-thesis-invalidation.md` — Thesis Invalidation
 
-### 2. Management Tone Assessment
-
-Analyze management's communication style and confidence:
-
-**Confidence Indicators**
-- Use of definitive language ("will", "committed", "confident")
-- Specific quantitative guidance with narrow ranges
-- Proactive discussion of challenges with clear solutions
-- Long-term vision and strategic clarity
-
-**Caution Indicators**
-- Hedging language ("may", "could", "hope", "expect")
-- Wide guidance ranges or lack of specific targets
-- Deflection of difficult questions
-- Focus on short-term rather than strategic issues
-
-**Red Flag Indicators**
-- Evasive or defensive responses
-- Frequent changes in financial definitions or metrics
-- Blame shifting to external factors
-- Reduced transparency or detail vs. prior quarters
-
-### 3. Key Themes Extraction
-
-Identify and categorize main topics discussed:
-
-**Strategic Initiatives**
-- New product launches or market expansion
-- M&A activity and integration plans
-- Digital transformation initiatives
-- Cost reduction or efficiency programs
-- R&D investments and innovation pipeline
-
-**Operational Performance**
-- Revenue drivers and growth catalysts
-- Margin trends and cost pressures
-- Supply chain and operational challenges
-- Customer trends and demand patterns
-- Geographic or segment performance variations
-
-**Market Dynamics**
-- Competitive landscape changes
-- Industry trends and macro headwinds/tailwinds
-- Regulatory or policy impacts
-- Technology disruptions or opportunities
-
-**Capital Allocation**
-- Dividend policy and changes
-- Share buyback plans
-- Capex priorities and timing
-- Debt management and balance sheet strategy
-
-### 4. Financial Guidance Analysis
-
-Compare and analyze forward-looking statements:
-
-**Guidance Components**
-- Revenue guidance: Range, growth rate, key assumptions
-- Earnings guidance: EPS range, margin expectations
-- Segment-specific guidance
-- Full-year vs. next-quarter outlook
-
-**Guidance Changes from Prior Quarter**
-- Magnitude of change (%)
-- Reasons cited for changes
-- Credibility assessment based on track record
-- Comparison to analyst consensus expectations
-
-**Key Assumptions**
-- Macro assumptions (GDP, rates, FX)
-- Volume and pricing assumptions
-- Cost inflation expectations
-- One-time items or adjustments
-
-### 5. Q&A Session Analysis
-
-Evaluate analyst questions and management responses:
-
-**Question Themes** (by frequency)
-1. [Most frequently asked topics]
-2. [Second most common questions]
-3. [Emerging concerns]
-
-**Management Response Quality**
-- Direct and substantive vs. evasive
-- Quantitative detail provided
-- Consistency with prepared remarks
-- New information revealed vs. scripted responses
-
-**Analyst Concerns**
-- Recurring questions (indicating lack of clarity)
-- Challenging questions about weaknesses
-- Questions about competitive threats
-- Governance or strategic direction inquiries
-
-**Notable Exchanges**
-- Tense or defensive moments
-- Particularly illuminating answers
-- Questions management avoided or deflected
-
-### 6. Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
-
-Compare with previous earnings calls (if available):
-
-**Messaging Consistency**
-- Changed narratives or priorities
-- Previously emphasized themes now downplayed
-- New strategic focuses or pivots
-
-**Tone Shifts**
-- More/less confident than prior quarters
-- Defensive vs. offensive positioning
-- Transparency level changes
-
-**Performance vs. Prior Guidance**
-- Did they deliver on previous commitments?
-- Track record of guidance accuracy
-- Patterns of over-promising or sandbagging
-
-### 7. Red Flags & Warning Signs
-
-Identify potential concerns:
-
-**Financial Red Flags**
-- Missed guidance for consecutive quarters
-- Declining margins despite revenue growth
-- Working capital deterioration
-- FCF significantly below net income
-- One-time charges becoming recurring
-
-**Operational Red Flags**
-- Customer concentration risks
-- Key executive departures
-- Product delays or quality issues
-- Market share losses
-- Failed M&A integrations
-
-**Communication Red Flags**
-- Lack of transparency or detail reduction
-- Frequent changes in reporting metrics
-- Aggressive accounting interpretations
-- Dismissive attitude toward legitimate concerns
-- Unrealistic optimism despite evidence
-
-**Governance Red Flags**
-- Board or management conflicts
-- Related-party transactions
-- Insider selling patterns
-- Lack of succession planning
-
-### 8. Investment Implications
-
-Synthesize analysis into actionable insights:
-
-**Overall Assessment**
-- Bullish / Neutral / Bearish sentiment justified by evidence
-- Confidence level in management's strategy and execution
-- Visibility and predictability of future performance
-
-**Key Investment Drivers**
-- Most important positive factors
-- Most significant risks and concerns
-- Catalysts for outperformance
-- Potential downside scenarios
-
-**Valuation Impact**
-- Likely direction of analyst estimate revisions
-- Impact on earnings growth rate expectations
-- Multiple expansion/contraction considerations
-- Fair value reassessment based on new information
-
-**Recommended Action**
-- Buy / Hold / Sell recommendation with rationale
-- Price target adjustment (if applicable)
-- Position sizing considerations
-- Time horizon for thesis to play out
-
-## Data Sources
-
-Reference the following sources when analyzing earnings calls:
-
-### Primary Sources
-- **SEC EDGAR 8-K Filings**: Official transcripts filed within 4 days of call
-  - Search: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
-  - Look for: Item 2.02 (Results of Operations and Financial Condition)
-
-- **Company Investor Relations**: Live webcasts and archived recordings
-  - Typically at: [company-website.com]/investors/earnings
-  - May include slides and supplemental materials
-
-### Transcript Services
-- **Seeking Alpha**: Free transcript archive with searchable database
-  - Format: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/[TICKER]/earnings/transcripts
-
-- **AlphaSense**: Premium transcript service with AI search (paid)
-- **Bloomberg Terminal**: Real-time transcripts and historical archive (paid)
-- **FactSet**: Transcript archive with analytics (paid)
-
-### Supplementary Information
-- **Earnings Press Release**: Published before call, contains prepared financial results
-- **Investor Presentation Slides**: Visual aids referenced during call
-- **10-Q/10-K Filings**: Detailed financials for context
-- **Prior Quarter Calls**: For comparison and trend analysis
-
-## Input Formats
-
-Accept earnings call data in the following formats:
-
-### Format 1: Transcript Text
-```
-Paste the full transcript text from the earnings call, including:
-- Corporate Participants section
-- Prepared Remarks
-- Q&A Session
-- Forward-Looking Statements disclaimer (if present)
-```
-
-### Format 2: Transcript URL
-```
-Provide URL to transcript:
-- Seeking Alpha URL
-- Company IR page URL
-- SEC EDGAR filing link
-```
-
-### Format 3: Call Details for Manual Analysis
-```
-Company: [Name]
-Ticker: [SYMBOL]
-Quarter: Q[1-4] [YEAR]
-Call Date: [MM/DD/YYYY]
-
-Key Questions to Focus On:
-- [Specific aspects to analyze]
-```
-
-## Output
-
-Provide comprehensive earnings call analysis report with:
-
-### 1. Call Metadata
-- Company name and ticker
-- Quarter and fiscal year
-- Call date and time
-- Participating executives
-- Transcript source
-
-### 2. Executive Summary (1-2 paragraphs)
-- Overall assessment and sentiment
-- Key takeaways (3-5 bullet points)
-- Investment implication (Buy/Hold/Sell)
-
-### 3. Management Tone Rating
-- Confidence Level: High / Medium / Low
-- Transparency: Excellent / Good / Fair / Poor
-- Notable tone characteristics
-- Supporting evidence (quotes)
-
-### 4. Key Themes (Ranked by Importance)
-For each theme:
-- Description
-- Management's stance
-- Supporting quotes
-- Investment relevance
-
-### 5. Guidance Analysis
-- Detailed guidance breakdown
-- Changes from prior guidance
-- Comparison to consensus estimates
-- Credibility assessment
-
-### 6. Q&A Insights
-- Top 5 analyst questions
-- Quality of management responses
-- New information revealed
-- Questions avoided or deflected
-
-### 7. Red Flags & Concerns
-- Identified warning signs (if any)
-- Severity assessment
-- Historical context
-- Recommended monitoring items
-
-### 8. Quarter-over-Quarter Changes
-- Messaging shifts
-- Tone differences
-- Strategic pivots
-- Performance vs. prior commitments
-
-### 9. Investment Recommendation
-- Overall sentiment: Bullish / Neutral / Bearish
-- Confidence level: High / Medium / Low
-- Key investment drivers (bullish case)
-- Key risks (bearish case)
-- Suggested action with rationale
-- Time horizon
-
-### 10. Notable Quotes
-5-10 most significant quotes from management with context
-
-## Analysis Guidelines
-
-### Best Practices
-
-1. **Read the Entire Transcript**: Don't rely only on prepared remarks; Q&A often reveals more
-2. **Compare to Prior Calls**: Context is critical for identifying changes
-3. **Cross-Reference with Financials**: Verify claims against actual 10-Q/10-K data
-4. **Watch for Language Patterns**: Hedging, definitiveness, evasiveness
-5. **Note What's NOT Said**: Absence of previously discussed topics is meaningful
-6. **Consider the Audience**: Different messages for different analyst types
-
-### Common Pitfalls to Avoid
-
-1. **Over-Optimism Bias**: Management is inherently promotional
-2. **Recency Bias**: One quarter doesn't make a trend
-3. **Cherry-Picking**: Consider full context, not just favorable quotes
-4. **Ignoring Tone**: What's said matters, but HOW it's said matters more
-5. **Missing Red Flags**: Defensiveness and evasion are important signals
-
-### Analyst Question Interpretation
-
-- **If analysts ask about guidance**: They may expect a beat or miss
-- **If questions focus on one issue**: It's likely a consensus concern
-- **If analysts challenge management**: Credibility may be in question
-- **If questions are softball**: Either results are stellar or relationships are managed
-
-## Usage Examples
-
-### Example 1: Basic Transcript Analysis
-```
-User: /earnings-call-analysis AAPL
-
-[Paste transcript text or provide URL]
-
-Claude analyzes the transcript and provides comprehensive report with all sections
-```
-
-### Example 2: Focused Analysis
-```
-User: /earnings-call-analysis TSLA --focus "production guidance,margin outlook"
-
-[Provide transcript]
-
-Claude emphasizes analysis of specified topics while still covering full call
-```
-
-### Example 3: Comparative Analysis
-```
-User: /earnings-call-analysis NVDA --compare Q3-2024
-
-[Provide current quarter transcript]
-
-Claude compares with prior quarter (Q3 2024) to highlight changes and trends
-```
-
-## Integration Notes
-
-- Can be used standalone or in conjunction with /stock-eval
-- Output can be fed to /report-generator for HTML/PDF export
-- Particularly valuable around earnings season (Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct)
-- Best used within 1-2 days of earnings release while market is digesting information
-
-## Standard Signal Output
-
-All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
-
-```
-## Thesis Invalidation
-
-After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
-
-**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- management lowers full-year guidance by >10% OR CEO/CFO departure announced within 30 days
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- major earnings beat >15% AND multi-year guidance raised significantly
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**Re-run this analysis when:**
-- [ ] Next earnings release
-- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
-- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
-- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
-
-╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
-║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
-║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
-║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
-║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
-║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
-╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
-```
-
-**Score Guide**: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
-**Confidence**: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
-**Horizon**: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
-
-**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
+Loading this file is not reading the skill: the steps, templates, and thresholds exist only
+in the parts above. Say which parts you opened, name the ones you did not, and never report a
+step or a template you have not read in this session.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/references/10-analysis-framework.md

@@ -0,0 +1,194 @@
+# Analysis Framework
+
+Part 1 of 3 for `earnings-call-analysis` — Analysis Framework
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Analysis Framework
+
+### 1. Executive Summary Analysis
+
+Extract and synthesize:
+- **Overall Sentiment**: Bullish / Neutral / Bearish
+- **Key Takeaways**: 3-5 most important points from the call
+- **Guidance Changes**: Raised / Maintained / Lowered / Withdrawn
+- **Surprise Factors**: Unexpected announcements or revelations
+- **Market-Moving Statements**: Comments likely to impact stock price
+
+### 2. Management Tone Assessment
+
+Analyze management's communication style and confidence:
+
+**Confidence Indicators**
+- Use of definitive language ("will", "committed", "confident")
+- Specific quantitative guidance with narrow ranges
+- Proactive discussion of challenges with clear solutions
+- Long-term vision and strategic clarity
+
+**Caution Indicators**
+- Hedging language ("may", "could", "hope", "expect")
+- Wide guidance ranges or lack of specific targets
+- Deflection of difficult questions
+- Focus on short-term rather than strategic issues
+
+**Red Flag Indicators**
+- Evasive or defensive responses
+- Frequent changes in financial definitions or metrics
+- Blame shifting to external factors
+- Reduced transparency or detail vs. prior quarters
+
+### 3. Key Themes Extraction
+
+Identify and categorize main topics discussed:
+
+**Strategic Initiatives**
+- New product launches or market expansion
+- M&A activity and integration plans
+- Digital transformation initiatives
+- Cost reduction or efficiency programs
+- R&D investments and innovation pipeline
+
+**Operational Performance**
+- Revenue drivers and growth catalysts
+- Margin trends and cost pressures
+- Supply chain and operational challenges
+- Customer trends and demand patterns
+- Geographic or segment performance variations
+
+**Market Dynamics**
+- Competitive landscape changes
+- Industry trends and macro headwinds/tailwinds
+- Regulatory or policy impacts
+- Technology disruptions or opportunities
+
+**Capital Allocation**
+- Dividend policy and changes
+- Share buyback plans
+- Capex priorities and timing
+- Debt management and balance sheet strategy
+
+### 4. Financial Guidance Analysis
+
+Compare and analyze forward-looking statements:
+
+**Guidance Components**
+- Revenue guidance: Range, growth rate, key assumptions
+- Earnings guidance: EPS range, margin expectations
+- Segment-specific guidance
+- Full-year vs. next-quarter outlook
+
+**Guidance Changes from Prior Quarter**
+- Magnitude of change (%)
+- Reasons cited for changes
+- Credibility assessment based on track record
+- Comparison to analyst consensus expectations
+
+**Key Assumptions**
+- Macro assumptions (GDP, rates, FX)
+- Volume and pricing assumptions
+- Cost inflation expectations
+- One-time items or adjustments
+
+### 5. Q&A Session Analysis
+
+Evaluate analyst questions and management responses:
+
+**Question Themes** (by frequency)
+1. [Most frequently asked topics]
+2. [Second most common questions]
+3. [Emerging concerns]
+
+**Management Response Quality**
+- Direct and substantive vs. evasive
+- Quantitative detail provided
+- Consistency with prepared remarks
+- New information revealed vs. scripted responses
+
+**Analyst Concerns**
+- Recurring questions (indicating lack of clarity)
+- Challenging questions about weaknesses
+- Questions about competitive threats
+- Governance or strategic direction inquiries
+
+**Notable Exchanges**
+- Tense or defensive moments
+- Particularly illuminating answers
+- Questions management avoided or deflected
+
+### 6. Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
+
+Compare with previous earnings calls (if available):
+
+**Messaging Consistency**
+- Changed narratives or priorities
+- Previously emphasized themes now downplayed
+- New strategic focuses or pivots
+
+**Tone Shifts**
+- More/less confident than prior quarters
+- Defensive vs. offensive positioning
+- Transparency level changes
+
+**Performance vs. Prior Guidance**
+- Did they deliver on previous commitments?
+- Track record of guidance accuracy
+- Patterns of over-promising or sandbagging
+
+### 7. Red Flags & Warning Signs
+
+Identify potential concerns:
+
+**Financial Red Flags**
+- Missed guidance for consecutive quarters
+- Declining margins despite revenue growth
+- Working capital deterioration
+- FCF significantly below net income
+- One-time charges becoming recurring
+
+**Operational Red Flags**
+- Customer concentration risks
+- Key executive departures
+- Product delays or quality issues
+- Market share losses
+- Failed M&A integrations
+
+**Communication Red Flags**
+- Lack of transparency or detail reduction
+- Frequent changes in reporting metrics
+- Aggressive accounting interpretations
+- Dismissive attitude toward legitimate concerns
+- Unrealistic optimism despite evidence
+
+**Governance Red Flags**
+- Board or management conflicts
+- Related-party transactions
+- Insider selling patterns
+- Lack of succession planning
+
+### 8. Investment Implications
+
+Synthesize analysis into actionable insights:
+
+**Overall Assessment**
+- Bullish / Neutral / Bearish sentiment justified by evidence
+- Confidence level in management's strategy and execution
+- Visibility and predictability of future performance
+
+**Key Investment Drivers**
+- Most important positive factors
+- Most significant risks and concerns
+- Catalysts for outperformance
+- Potential downside scenarios
+
+**Valuation Impact**
+- Likely direction of analyst estimate revisions
+- Impact on earnings growth rate expectations
+- Multiple expansion/contraction considerations
+- Fair value reassessment based on new information
+
+**Recommended Action**
+- Buy / Hold / Sell recommendation with rationale
+- Price target adjustment (if applicable)
+- Position sizing considerations
+- Time horizon for thesis to play out
+
+