@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.12 → 2.8.1

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/references/12-output-format.md

@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+# 3. Output Format
+
+Part 3 of 4 for `earnings-preview` — 3. Output Format; Example; Notes; Thesis Invalidation
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## 3. Output Format
+
+1. **Data & Sources** header (above), including the confirmed date/time and the consensus as-of date
+2. **Setup in three lines** — the bar (consensus vs. whisper vs. prior guide), what the price assumes, and how this stock has treated beats
+3. **Expectation stack** table (Phase 1)
+4. **8-quarter history** table and its three summary lines (Phase 2)
+5. **What is priced in** — the implied-growth sentence and the positioning read (Phase 3)
+6. **Implied vs. realized move** table and the position-size finding (Phase 4)
+7. **KPIs to watch**, with the one number that decides the reaction (Phase 5)
+8. **Scenario grid** with probabilities and position rules (Phase 6)
+9. **What not to do** (Phase 7)
+10. **Thesis Invalidation** and the **Investment Signal block** (below), with the Earnings Setup Score
+11. **Hand-off line** — *"After the print: paste the release and transcript into `earnings-call-analysis`; then run `thesis-tracker --update`."*
+
+---
+
+## Example
+
+```
+User: earnings-preview NVDA — reports Aug 27 after the close. I hold 40 shares at $118;
+      ladder ceiling is 60. Consensus and the last 8 quarters are pasted below. [pasted]
+
+The assistant opens with the Data & Sources header (IR page for the date, pasted
+consensus dated Aug 20, live straddle), then the setup in three lines: consensus has
+been revised up 6% in 90 days and the whisper sits ~3% above it, so a consensus-level
+beat will read as a miss; at the current price and a 3-year median forward multiple the
+stock needs ~35% forward EPS growth against a consensus of ~30%, so the price already
+assumes a beat-and-raise; the stock beat both lines in 8 of 8 quarters but fell the next
+day in 3 of them — every time the guide midpoint was below the whisper.
+
+The implied move is ±7.8% against a realized median of ±6.1% (ratio 1.28 — the event is
+over-insured). The KPI that decides the reaction is data-center revenue growth versus
+the ~40% whisper, then the next-quarter guide midpoint; gross margin is the tiebreaker.
+
+Scenario grid: beat & raise 45% (hold; no add — the ladder's next rung is $105, far
+below), beat & lower 35% (trim 10 shares into strength only if the guide cut names
+demand, not supply), miss 20% (the exit trigger is the thesis-tracker file's ≥40% DC
+growth KPI, not a price). What not to do: no adding into the print at 40 shares with a
+60 ceiling and an implied move that reaches $112 on the downside.
+
+Earnings Setup Score 4.6 / 10 — NEUTRAL: the bar is high and largely priced, but the
+stock has rewarded beats and the downside is over-insured. Signal block, then the
+hand-off to earnings-call-analysis and thesis-tracker --update.
+```
+
+---
+
+## Notes
+
+- **Confirm the date from the company, not a calendar aggregator.** Estimated dates are wrong often enough to matter — an implied move measured on the wrong expiry is meaningless.
+- **Consensus is a moving target.** Restate the as-of date next to every consensus figure; a number from three weeks ago is not the bar the stock will trade against.
+- **Whisper is labeled an estimate every time it appears.** A range with a rationale beats a false-precision point.
+- **The score is about the event, not the company.** A great business can have a poor setup (crowded, fully priced) and a mediocre one a good setup (washed out, low bar). Say which is which; do not blend them.
+- **Position rules must respect `position-ladder`'s ceiling and `thesis-tracker`'s triggers** when those exist. This skill never raises a ceiling or overrides an exit trigger.
+- **After the print, close the loop.** `earnings-call-analysis` on the transcript, then `thesis-tracker --update`, then record in its decision log which scenario occurred and whether the pre-set rule was followed. That log is what makes the next preview better.
+
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH (asymmetric setup for a holder) — the read breaks if:**
+- Consensus or the whisper is revised up by more than ~3% (EPS) in the final week — the bar has moved and Phases 1 and 3 must be redone
+- The stock rallies more than the implied move *before* the print (a pre-announcement, a peer's blowout, a sector re-rating) — the relief has been taken in advance
+- A peer reports first and reveals the KPI in Phase 5 is deteriorating industry-wide
+
+**If signal is BEARISH (good news fully priced, poor beat history) — the read breaks if:**
+- The stock sells off into the print by more than the implied move on no company news — the bar has been reset lower
+- Consensus is cut ahead of the print (the company or its peers guided down) — a beat against a lowered bar is not the same setup, and Phase 7's warning applies in reverse
+- Short interest rises sharply into the event — positioning has flipped and the reaction distribution with it
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] The print itself — this analysis expires at the release; run `earnings-call-analysis` on the transcript and `thesis-tracker --update` on the numbers
+- [ ] Consensus, the guide, or the confirmed date changes
+- [ ] The stock moves more than half the implied move before the event
+- [ ] A direct peer reports
+- [ ] The options-implied move changes by more than 20% relative (repricing of the event)
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/references/13-standard-signal-output.md

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+# Standard Signal Output
+
+Part 4 of 4 for `earnings-preview` — Standard Signal Output
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+This skill measures **the asymmetry of the earnings setup for a holder, not the direction of the business or the likely outcome of the print**, so state the mapping explicitly: `Signal: BULLISH` means the bar is low, the stock rewards beats, and the downside is over-insured — the setup favours holding through the event at the current size; `NEUTRAL` means the setup is balanced or mixed — hold at current size, no adding; `BEARISH` means good news is largely priced and the stock has a habit of falling on beats — for a holder this argues for a smaller position into the print, **not for a short**. `Action: BUY` here means "the setup supports holding, and adding only via a pre-planned `position-ladder` rung"; `Action: SELL` means "reduce size into the event", never "short the print." Read the direction of the stock from `stock-eval` or `bear-case`, not from this block.
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Note:** The Score above is the Earnings Setup Score, mapped onto the standard scale for cross-skill comparability. It rates *how asymmetric the event is for a holder* — not how attractive the stock is and not the likelihood of a beat. Horizon is SHORT-TERM by construction: the analysis expires at the print. Confidence is capped at MEDIUM when the earnings date is unconfirmed, the whisper is not estimable, or fewer than six quarters of history exist.
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice. Earnings outcomes are unknowable in advance; probabilities and scenario rules are a pre-commitment framework under stated assumptions, not a forecast or a trade instruction.
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/economics-analysis/SKILL.md

@@ -40,310 +40,16 @@ Data & Sources
 
 Analyze US economic conditions and their implications for investment decisions.
 
-## Key Economic Indicators
+## Read the Parts
 
-1. **Growth Indicators**
-   - GDP growth rate and components
-   - Employment data (NFP, unemployment rate, jobless claims)
-   - Consumer spending and retail sales
-   - Manufacturing and services PMI
+Everything below the surface of this file lives in `references/`. **whole, with no line window** — quoting a rule or a template out of a slice of one is how a
+file gets reported as read when it was only skimmed. The file names below are the only
+addressing this entry has.
 
-2. **Inflation Metrics**
-   - CPI (Consumer Price Index)
-   - PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
-   - PPI (Producer Price Index)
-   - Wage growth trends
+- `references/10-key-economic-indicators.md` — Key Economic Indicators; Analysis Framework; Yield Curve Analysis
+- `references/11-credit-market-indicators.md` — Credit Market Indicators; Global Macro Comparison
+- `references/12-recession-probability-scoring.md` — Recession Probability Scoring; Output; Standard Signal Output; Thesis Invalidation
 
-3. **Monetary Policy**
-   - Federal Reserve policy stance
-   - Interest rates (Fed Funds rate, Treasury yields)
-   - Money supply and bank lending
-   - Fed meeting minutes and forward guidance
-
-4. **Market Sentiment**
-   - Consumer confidence indices
-   - Business sentiment surveys
-   - Credit spreads and risk indicators
-   - Market volatility (VIX)
-
-5. **Fiscal Policy**
-   - Government spending and stimulus programs
-   - Tax policy changes
-   - Budget deficit and debt levels
-
-## Analysis Framework
-
-- Identify current economic cycle phase
-- Assess policy implications for different sectors
-- Evaluate recession/expansion risks
-- Determine impact on equity, bond, and commodity markets
-- Provide sector rotation recommendations
-
----
-
-## Yield Curve Analysis
-
-### Key Spreads to Monitor
-
-| Spread  | Definition                          | Current | 1-Year Avg | 10-Year Avg | Signal |
-|---------|-------------------------------------|---------|------------|-------------|--------|
-| 2s10s   | 10yr Treasury minus 2yr Treasury    |         |            |             |        |
-| 3M10Y   | 10yr Treasury minus 3-Month T-Bill  |         |            |             |        |
-| 5s30s   | 30yr Treasury minus 5yr Treasury    |         |            |             |        |
-
-**3M10Y is the historically strongest recession predictor** (NY Fed model is based on this spread).
-
-### Yield Curve Shapes
-
-| Shape           | Description                                     | Economic Implication                                  |
-|-----------------|-------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|
-| Normal (Steep)  | Long-term rates well above short-term rates     | Healthy growth expectations, bank margins expanding   |
-| Flat            | Short and long-term rates near parity           | Late-cycle signal, growth slowing, Fed near peak      |
-| Inverted        | Short-term rates above long-term rates          | Recession warning — markets pricing in rate cuts ahead|
-| Bear Steepening | Both ends rise, long end rises faster           | Inflation concern, term premium expanding             |
-| Bull Steepening | Both ends fall, short end falls faster          | Cutting cycle underway, growth relief expected        |
-
-### Inversion Duration and Recession Lead Time
-
-Historical precedent for 3M10Y inversion:
-
-| Inversion Duration | Historical Recession Lead Time |
-|--------------------|-------------------------------|
-| < 3 months         | Unreliable signal             |
-| 3–6 months         | 12–18 months typically        |
-| 6–12 months        | 6–15 months typically         |
-| > 12 months        | High confidence; within 12 months |
-
-**Rule of thumb**: Yield curve uninversion (re-steepening after inversion) is often the more immediate warning — recession tends to arrive shortly after the curve re-steepens from inversion.
-
-### Fed Rate Cycle Positioning
-
-- **Hiking Cycle**: Fed raising rates — short end rises faster, curve flattens/inverts. Growth stocks under pressure.
-- **Pause**: Fed on hold — curve stabilizes. Markets watch for pivot signals.
-- **Cutting Cycle**: Fed reducing rates — short end falls faster, curve steepens. Risk-on environment, cyclicals and growth stocks benefit.
-
-### Real Yields (TIPS) Analysis
-
-- **Real Yield** = Nominal Treasury Yield − Breakeven Inflation Rate (derived from TIPS)
-- **Rising real yields**: Tighten financial conditions. Negative for long-duration assets (growth stocks, gold, long bonds).
-- **Falling real yields**: Easier financial conditions. Positive for growth stocks, gold, emerging markets, long bonds.
-- **10-Year Real Yield thresholds**: Below 0% is historically accommodative; above 2% is meaningfully restrictive.
-- **Breakeven inflation** (5-year, 5-year forward): Market's long-run inflation expectation. Persistently above 2.5% signals inflation concern.
-
----
-
-## Credit Market Indicators
-
-### Investment Grade (IG) Credit Spreads (OAS — Option-Adjusted Spread)
-
-| Spread Level   | Condition  | Interpretation                                     |
-|----------------|------------|----------------------------------------------------|
-| < 100 bps      | Normal     | Risk appetite healthy, credit markets functioning  |
-| 100–150 bps    | Caution    | Stress emerging, watch for tightening conditions   |
-| > 150 bps      | Stress     | Credit markets seizing, risk-off, watch equities   |
-
-### High Yield (HY) Credit Spreads
-
-| Spread Level   | Condition  | Interpretation                                             |
-|----------------|------------|------------------------------------------------------------|
-| < 350 bps      | Normal     | Benign default environment, strong risk appetite           |
-| 350–500 bps    | Caution    | Elevated risk aversion, avoid lower-quality credits        |
-| > 500 bps      | Distress   | Recession/financial stress scenario, significant HY risk   |
-| > 800 bps      | Crisis     | Systemic credit event risk, similar to 2008/2020 episodes  |
-
-**Rule**: HY spreads lead equity markets by 2–4 weeks on average. Widening HY spreads while equities hold = warning signal.
-
-### TED Spread
-
-- **Definition**: 3-Month LIBOR (now SOFR) minus 3-Month T-Bill yield
-- Measures interbank lending stress and counterparty risk appetite in the banking system
-- **Normal**: < 50 bps
-- **Elevated stress**: 50–100 bps
-- **Crisis signal**: > 100 bps (peaked at ~450 bps during 2008 GFC)
-
-### MOVE Index (Bond Market Volatility)
-
-- Bond market equivalent of VIX — measures implied volatility in US Treasury options
-- **Normal**: 80–100
-- **Elevated**: 100–130 (policy uncertainty, high rate volatility)
-- **Crisis**: > 150 (1994, 2008, 2020, 2023 banking crisis)
-- High MOVE compresses equity valuations by increasing discount rates unpredictably.
-
-### Credit as a Leading Indicator
-
-- **IG/HY spread widening** before equity weakness is a leading warning (credit sees risk first)
-- **Spread compression** while equities lag = catch-up potential, constructive signal
-- **IG vs. HY divergence**: If HY widens but IG holds, idiosyncratic credit stress — watch lower-quality equities
-- **Leveraged loan market**: CLO issuance and leveraged loan spreads reflect private credit conditions
-
----
-
-## Global Macro Comparison
-
-### Economic Cycle Positioning (US vs. EU vs. China)
-
-| Economy        | Current Phase         | GDP Growth | Inflation | Policy Stance | Equity Implication          |
-|----------------|-----------------------|------------|-----------|---------------|-----------------------------|
-| United States  |                       |            |           |               |                             |
-| Eurozone       |                       |            |           |               |                             |
-| China          |                       |            |           |               |                             |
-| Japan          |                       |            |           |               |                             |
-| UK             |                       |            |           |               |                             |
-
-Economic cycle phases: Early Expansion → Mid Expansion → Late Expansion → Contraction → Recovery
-
-### PMI Comparison Across Major Economies
-
-| Country/Region | PMI Index    | Last Reading | Trend       | Above/Below 50 |
-|----------------|--------------|--------------|-------------|----------------|
-| US             | ISM Mfg      |              |             |                |
-| US             | ISM Services |              |             |                |
-| Eurozone       | Markit Mfg   |              |             |                |
-| Eurozone       | Markit Svcs  |              |             |                |
-| China          | Caixin Mfg   |              |             |                |
-| China          | Official PMI |              |             |                |
-
-**Rule**: PMI above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Composite PMI below 48 for 2+ months is recessionary signal.
-
-### Central Bank Divergence Analysis
-
-| Central Bank | Current Rate | Last Move   | Next Expected Move | Cycle Phase |
-|--------------|-------------|-------------|-------------------|-------------|
-| Federal Reserve (Fed) |    |             |                   |             |
-| European Central Bank (ECB) | |           |                   |             |
-| Bank of Japan (BOJ) |       |             |                   |             |
-| Bank of England (BOE) |     |             |                   |             |
-| People's Bank of China (PBOC) | |         |                   |             |
-
-**Divergence signals**:
-- Fed tightening while ECB/BOJ easing → USD strengthens, EM currencies weaken
-- Synchronized easing → Global risk-on, EM outperforms, commodities bid
-- BOJ policy normalization → JPY strengthens, unwinds carry trades
-
-### Dollar (DXY) Strength and Sector Impact
-
-| DXY Direction | US Multinational Earnings | Commodities | Emerging Markets | Domestic US Small-Caps |
-|---------------|--------------------------|-------------|-----------------|------------------------|
-| Strengthening (rising DXY) | Headwind (FX translation) | Bearish | Bearish (USD-denominated debt stress) | Relative outperform |
-| Weakening (falling DXY) | Tailwind | Bullish | Bullish | Relative underperform |
-
-- **DXY above 105**: Meaningful headwind for S&P 500 multinationals (roughly 40% of S&P revenues are foreign)
-- **DXY below 95**: Significant tailwind, boosts international earnings in USD terms
-
-### Emerging Market Vulnerability Indicators
-
-- **EM FX pressure**: Current account deficits + elevated external USD debt = vulnerable to dollar strength
-- **EM Debt Stress Index**: Sovereign spread widening in EM bonds (EMBI+ spread)
-- **Capital outflow risks**: Rate differential between US and EM narrows during Fed cutting cycles — can reverse
-- **China contagion risk**: Property sector stress, credit impulse, and stimulus effectiveness
-- **Commodity-exporting EMs**: Benefit from commodity supercycles; inversely, hurt by USD strength
-
----
-
-## Recession Probability Scoring
-
-### New York Fed Recession Model
-
-Based on the 3M10Y yield curve spread, the NY Fed publishes a monthly recession probability for the next 12 months.
-
-| Probability Range | Interpretation                                |
-|-------------------|-----------------------------------------------|
-| 0–10%             | Expansion — very low recession risk           |
-| 10–25%            | Low risk — monitor indicators                 |
-| 25–50%            | Elevated — caution warranted                  |
-| 50–75%            | High risk — recession likely within 12 months |
-| > 75%             | Near-certain — defensive positioning required |
-
-**Current NY Fed reading**: ____%
-
-### Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)
-
-The LEI composite combines 10 leading indicators across financial markets, labor, manufacturing, and consumer expectations.
-
-- **Consecutive monthly declines (3+)**: Strong recession warning
-- **Year-over-year decline > 4%**: Historically aligned with recessions
-- **LEI component breakdown**: Manufacturing hours, building permits, consumer expectations, credit spread, yield curve, stock prices, initial jobless claims
-
-**Current LEI trend**: Rising / Flat / Declining
-
-### Sahm Rule
-
-**Sahm Rule Indicator** = Current 3-month average unemployment rate minus the minimum of the 3-month average unemployment rate over the prior 12 months.
-
-- **Threshold: ≥ 0.5 percentage points** = Real-time recession signal with high historical accuracy
-- Triggered in every US recession since 1970
-- Works in real-time without revision lag that affects other indicators
-
-**Current Sahm Indicator reading**: ____
-
-### Custom Composite Recession Probability
-
-Scoring model combining: Yield curve signal + LEI trend + Sahm Rule + Credit spreads + PMI momentum
-
-| Zone           | Score Range  | Interpretation                                        |
-|----------------|--------------|-------------------------------------------------------|
-| Expansion      | 0–25%        | Risk-on appropriate; cyclicals, growth outperform     |
-| Caution        | 25–50%       | Balanced positioning; reduce cyclical overweights     |
-| High Risk      | 50–75%       | Defensive rotation; increase quality, reduce leverage |
-| Near-Certain   | 75–100%      | Full defensive posture; cash, defensives, short vol   |
-
-**Historical recession episodes and leading indicators:**
-
-| Recession     | Yield Curve Inversion | LEI Decline | Sahm Trigger | S&P 500 Peak-to-Trough |
-|---------------|-----------------------|-------------|--------------|------------------------|
-| 2001 (Dot-com) | 2000                 | Yes         | Yes          | −49%                   |
-| 2008 (GFC)     | 2006–2007            | Yes         | Yes          | −57%                   |
-| 2020 (COVID)   | 2019                 | Yes         | Yes          | −34%                   |
-| 2022–2023      | 2022–2023            | Yes         | No (so far)  | −25% (bear market)     |
-
----
-
-## Output
-
-Deliver concise economic assessment with:
-- Current economic state summary
-- Key risks and opportunities
-- Sector and asset class implications
-- Investment positioning recommendations
-
-## Standard Signal Output
-
-All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
-
-```
-## Thesis Invalidation
-
-After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
-
-**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- yield curve inverts >50bps AND leading indicators fall for 3 consecutive months
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- yield curve normalizes AND PMI recovers above 52 for 2+ months
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**Re-run this analysis when:**
-- [ ] Next earnings release
-- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
-- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
-- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
-
-╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
-║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
-║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
-║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
-║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
-║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
-╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
-```
-
-Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
-Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
-Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
-
-**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
+Loading this file is not reading the skill: the steps, templates, and thresholds exist only
+in the parts above. Say which parts you opened, name the ones you did not, and never report a
+step or a template you have not read in this session.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/economics-analysis/references/10-key-economic-indicators.md

@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+# Key Economic Indicators
+
+Part 1 of 3 for `economics-analysis` — Key Economic Indicators; Analysis Framework; Yield Curve Analysis
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Key Economic Indicators
+
+1. **Growth Indicators**
+   - GDP growth rate and components
+   - Employment data (NFP, unemployment rate, jobless claims)
+   - Consumer spending and retail sales
+   - Manufacturing and services PMI
+
+2. **Inflation Metrics**
+   - CPI (Consumer Price Index)
+   - PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
+   - PPI (Producer Price Index)
+   - Wage growth trends
+
+3. **Monetary Policy**
+   - Federal Reserve policy stance
+   - Interest rates (Fed Funds rate, Treasury yields)
+   - Money supply and bank lending
+   - Fed meeting minutes and forward guidance
+
+4. **Market Sentiment**
+   - Consumer confidence indices
+   - Business sentiment surveys
+   - Credit spreads and risk indicators
+   - Market volatility (VIX)
+
+5. **Fiscal Policy**
+   - Government spending and stimulus programs
+   - Tax policy changes
+   - Budget deficit and debt levels
+
+## Analysis Framework
+
+- Identify current economic cycle phase
+- Assess policy implications for different sectors
+- Evaluate recession/expansion risks
+- Determine impact on equity, bond, and commodity markets
+- Provide sector rotation recommendations
+
+---
+
+## Yield Curve Analysis
+
+### Key Spreads to Monitor
+
+| Spread  | Definition                          | Current | 1-Year Avg | 10-Year Avg | Signal |
+|---------|-------------------------------------|---------|------------|-------------|--------|
+| 2s10s   | 10yr Treasury minus 2yr Treasury    |         |            |             |        |
+| 3M10Y   | 10yr Treasury minus 3-Month T-Bill  |         |            |             |        |
+| 5s30s   | 30yr Treasury minus 5yr Treasury    |         |            |             |        |
+
+**3M10Y is the historically strongest recession predictor** (NY Fed model is based on this spread).
+
+### Yield Curve Shapes
+
+| Shape           | Description                                     | Economic Implication                                  |
+|-----------------|-------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|
+| Normal (Steep)  | Long-term rates well above short-term rates     | Healthy growth expectations, bank margins expanding   |
+| Flat            | Short and long-term rates near parity           | Late-cycle signal, growth slowing, Fed near peak      |
+| Inverted        | Short-term rates above long-term rates          | Recession warning — markets pricing in rate cuts ahead|
+| Bear Steepening | Both ends rise, long end rises faster           | Inflation concern, term premium expanding             |
+| Bull Steepening | Both ends fall, short end falls faster          | Cutting cycle underway, growth relief expected        |
+
+### Inversion Duration and Recession Lead Time
+
+Historical precedent for 3M10Y inversion:
+
+| Inversion Duration | Historical Recession Lead Time |
+|--------------------|-------------------------------|
+| < 3 months         | Unreliable signal             |
+| 3–6 months         | 12–18 months typically        |
+| 6–12 months        | 6–15 months typically         |
+| > 12 months        | High confidence; within 12 months |
+
+**Rule of thumb**: Yield curve uninversion (re-steepening after inversion) is often the more immediate warning — recession tends to arrive shortly after the curve re-steepens from inversion.
+
+### Fed Rate Cycle Positioning
+
+- **Hiking Cycle**: Fed raising rates — short end rises faster, curve flattens/inverts. Growth stocks under pressure.
+- **Pause**: Fed on hold — curve stabilizes. Markets watch for pivot signals.
+- **Cutting Cycle**: Fed reducing rates — short end falls faster, curve steepens. Risk-on environment, cyclicals and growth stocks benefit.
+
+### Real Yields (TIPS) Analysis
+
+- **Real Yield** = Nominal Treasury Yield − Breakeven Inflation Rate (derived from TIPS)
+- **Rising real yields**: Tighten financial conditions. Negative for long-duration assets (growth stocks, gold, long bonds).
+- **Falling real yields**: Easier financial conditions. Positive for growth stocks, gold, emerging markets, long bonds.
+- **10-Year Real Yield thresholds**: Below 0% is historically accommodative; above 2% is meaningfully restrictive.
+- **Breakeven inflation** (5-year, 5-year forward): Market's long-run inflation expectation. Persistently above 2.5% signals inflation concern.
+
+---
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/economics-analysis/references/11-credit-market-indicators.md

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+# Credit Market Indicators
+
+Part 2 of 3 for `economics-analysis` — Credit Market Indicators; Global Macro Comparison
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Credit Market Indicators
+
+### Investment Grade (IG) Credit Spreads (OAS — Option-Adjusted Spread)
+
+| Spread Level   | Condition  | Interpretation                                     |
+|----------------|------------|----------------------------------------------------|
+| < 100 bps      | Normal     | Risk appetite healthy, credit markets functioning  |
+| 100–150 bps    | Caution    | Stress emerging, watch for tightening conditions   |
+| > 150 bps      | Stress     | Credit markets seizing, risk-off, watch equities   |
+
+### High Yield (HY) Credit Spreads
+
+| Spread Level   | Condition  | Interpretation                                             |
+|----------------|------------|------------------------------------------------------------|
+| < 350 bps      | Normal     | Benign default environment, strong risk appetite           |
+| 350–500 bps    | Caution    | Elevated risk aversion, avoid lower-quality credits        |
+| > 500 bps      | Distress   | Recession/financial stress scenario, significant HY risk   |
+| > 800 bps      | Crisis     | Systemic credit event risk, similar to 2008/2020 episodes  |
+
+**Rule**: HY spreads lead equity markets by 2–4 weeks on average. Widening HY spreads while equities hold = warning signal.
+
+### TED Spread
+
+- **Definition**: 3-Month LIBOR (now SOFR) minus 3-Month T-Bill yield
+- Measures interbank lending stress and counterparty risk appetite in the banking system
+- **Normal**: < 50 bps
+- **Elevated stress**: 50–100 bps
+- **Crisis signal**: > 100 bps (peaked at ~450 bps during 2008 GFC)
+
+### MOVE Index (Bond Market Volatility)
+
+- Bond market equivalent of VIX — measures implied volatility in US Treasury options
+- **Normal**: 80–100
+- **Elevated**: 100–130 (policy uncertainty, high rate volatility)
+- **Crisis**: > 150 (1994, 2008, 2020, 2023 banking crisis)
+- High MOVE compresses equity valuations by increasing discount rates unpredictably.
+
+### Credit as a Leading Indicator
+
+- **IG/HY spread widening** before equity weakness is a leading warning (credit sees risk first)
+- **Spread compression** while equities lag = catch-up potential, constructive signal
+- **IG vs. HY divergence**: If HY widens but IG holds, idiosyncratic credit stress — watch lower-quality equities
+- **Leveraged loan market**: CLO issuance and leveraged loan spreads reflect private credit conditions
+
+---
+
+## Global Macro Comparison
+
+### Economic Cycle Positioning (US vs. EU vs. China)
+
+| Economy        | Current Phase         | GDP Growth | Inflation | Policy Stance | Equity Implication          |
+|----------------|-----------------------|------------|-----------|---------------|-----------------------------|
+| United States  |                       |            |           |               |                             |
+| Eurozone       |                       |            |           |               |                             |
+| China          |                       |            |           |               |                             |
+| Japan          |                       |            |           |               |                             |
+| UK             |                       |            |           |               |                             |
+
+Economic cycle phases: Early Expansion → Mid Expansion → Late Expansion → Contraction → Recovery
+
+### PMI Comparison Across Major Economies
+
+| Country/Region | PMI Index    | Last Reading | Trend       | Above/Below 50 |
+|----------------|--------------|--------------|-------------|----------------|
+| US             | ISM Mfg      |              |             |                |
+| US             | ISM Services |              |             |                |
+| Eurozone       | Markit Mfg   |              |             |                |
+| Eurozone       | Markit Svcs  |              |             |                |
+| China          | Caixin Mfg   |              |             |                |
+| China          | Official PMI |              |             |                |
+
+**Rule**: PMI above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Composite PMI below 48 for 2+ months is recessionary signal.
+
+### Central Bank Divergence Analysis
+
+| Central Bank | Current Rate | Last Move   | Next Expected Move | Cycle Phase |
+|--------------|-------------|-------------|-------------------|-------------|
+| Federal Reserve (Fed) |    |             |                   |             |
+| European Central Bank (ECB) | |           |                   |             |
+| Bank of Japan (BOJ) |       |             |                   |             |
+| Bank of England (BOE) |     |             |                   |             |
+| People's Bank of China (PBOC) | |         |                   |             |
+
+**Divergence signals**:
+- Fed tightening while ECB/BOJ easing → USD strengthens, EM currencies weaken
+- Synchronized easing → Global risk-on, EM outperforms, commodities bid
+- BOJ policy normalization → JPY strengthens, unwinds carry trades
+
+### Dollar (DXY) Strength and Sector Impact
+
+| DXY Direction | US Multinational Earnings | Commodities | Emerging Markets | Domestic US Small-Caps |
+|---------------|--------------------------|-------------|-----------------|------------------------|
+| Strengthening (rising DXY) | Headwind (FX translation) | Bearish | Bearish (USD-denominated debt stress) | Relative outperform |
+| Weakening (falling DXY) | Tailwind | Bullish | Bullish | Relative underperform |
+
+- **DXY above 105**: Meaningful headwind for S&P 500 multinationals (roughly 40% of S&P revenues are foreign)
+- **DXY below 95**: Significant tailwind, boosts international earnings in USD terms
+
+### Emerging Market Vulnerability Indicators
+
+- **EM FX pressure**: Current account deficits + elevated external USD debt = vulnerable to dollar strength
+- **EM Debt Stress Index**: Sovereign spread widening in EM bonds (EMBI+ spread)
+- **Capital outflow risks**: Rate differential between US and EM narrows during Fed cutting cycles — can reverse
+- **China contagion risk**: Property sector stress, credit impulse, and stimulus effectiveness
+- **Commodity-exporting EMs**: Benefit from commodity supercycles; inversely, hurt by USD strength
+
+---
+
+