@tangle-network/agent-bench 0.3.6 → 0.3.8

package/src/swe-arena/analyze.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,211 @@
+/**
+ * Typed port of the reference `fixtures/analyze.py` statistics: discordant
+ * pair extraction, exact two-sided sign test, and cost rollups.
+ *
+ * The sign test is NOT re-implemented: `mcnemar` from
+ * `@tangle-network/agent-eval` computes the identical exact two-sided
+ * binomial p on discordant pairs (`min(1, 2·P(X ≤ min(b,c)))`, X ~
+ * Binomial(b+c, 0.5)) — the same formula as `analyze.py::sign_test`.
+ *
+ * Token accounting has TWO deliberately distinct rollups:
+ *  - `supBrainTokens` — what analyze.py prints as "SUP total tokens":
+ *    supervisor-journal metered spend (the supervisor "brain"), journal-true
+ *    where captured, else the runtime's `sup_spentTokens`.
+ *  - `supTotalTokens` — brain + worker-session tokens (worker-tokens.json).
+ *    This is the true SUP-arm spend (1,722,390 for the 12-run set) and the
+ *    number the 2.55x SUP/SOLO ratio refers to. analyze.py never printed it;
+ *    its printed 0.83x ratio is brain-only.
+ */
+
+import { mcnemar } from '@tangle-network/agent-eval'
+import type { ReconciledInstance } from './reconcile'
+import type { LedgerRow, RematchRow, WorkerTokens } from './types'
+
+export interface PairedOutcome {
+  iid: string
+  solo: boolean
+  sup: boolean
+}
+
+/** Raw ledger outcomes — analyze.py semantics (strict `is True`), sorted by iid. */
+export function ledgerOutcomes(ledger: LedgerRow[]): PairedOutcome[] {
+  return [...ledger]
+    .sort((a, b) => (a.iid < b.iid ? -1 : a.iid > b.iid ? 1 : 0))
+    .map((r) => ({ iid: r.iid, solo: r.solo_resolved === true, sup: r.sup_resolved === true }))
+}
+
+/** Reconciled (re-judged, gold-gated) outcomes, sorted by iid. */
+export function reconciledOutcomes(instances: ReconciledInstance[]): PairedOutcome[] {
+  return [...instances]
+    .sort((a, b) => (a.iid < b.iid ? -1 : a.iid > b.iid ? 1 : 0))
+    .map((r) => ({ iid: r.iid, solo: r.solo.resolved, sup: r.sup.resolved }))
+}
+
+export interface DiscordantSplit {
+  /** SUP resolved, SOLO not. */
+  supOnly: string[]
+  /** SOLO resolved, SUP not. */
+  soloOnly: string[]
+  both: string[]
+  neither: string[]
+}
+
+export function splitPairs(outcomes: PairedOutcome[]): DiscordantSplit {
+  const supOnly: string[] = []
+  const soloOnly: string[] = []
+  const both: string[] = []
+  const neither: string[] = []
+  for (const o of outcomes) {
+    if (o.sup && !o.solo) supOnly.push(o.iid)
+    else if (o.solo && !o.sup) soloOnly.push(o.iid)
+    else if (o.solo && o.sup) both.push(o.iid)
+    else neither.push(o.iid)
+  }
+  return { supOnly, soloOnly, both, neither }
+}
+
+export interface SignTestResult {
+  n: number
+  /** Discordant pairs where SUP (treatment) won. */
+  b: number
+  /** Discordant pairs where SOLO (control) won. */
+  c: number
+  nDiscordant: number
+  /** Exact two-sided binomial sign-test p on discordant pairs. */
+  pValue: number
+}
+
+/** Exact paired sign test, SOLO as control and SUP as treatment. */
+export function pairedSignTest(outcomes: PairedOutcome[]): SignTestResult {
+  const result = mcnemar(
+    outcomes.map((o) => o.solo),
+    outcomes.map((o) => o.sup),
+  )
+  const { n, b, c, nDiscordant, pValue } = result
+  return { n, b, c, nDiscordant, pValue }
+}
+
+export interface CostRollup {
+  soloTokens: number
+  /** analyze.py's "SUP total tokens": journal-true brain spend, else sup_spentTokens. */
+  supBrainTokens: number
+  /** Σ worker-session tokens (worker-tokens.json; instances without workers contribute 0). */
+  supWorkerTokens: number
+  /** Brain + workers — the true SUP-arm token spend. */
+  supTotalTokens: number
+  supUsd: number
+  /** Blended $ per token from SUP runtime accounting (analyze.py's `rate`). */
+  blendedRatePerTok: number
+  soloUsdDerived: number
+  /** supBrainTokens / soloTokens — the ratio analyze.py prints (0.83x). */
+  brainTokenRatio: number
+  /** supTotalTokens / soloTokens — the true-spend ratio (2.55x). */
+  totalTokenRatio: number
+  soloWallS: number
+  supWallS: number
+  wallRatio: number
+  /** iids where the runtime's sup_spentTokens disagrees with journal-true (no-winner zeroing). */
+  telemetryGaps: string[]
+}
+
+/**
+ * Port of analyze.py's cost section over the full ledger (all 12 paired runs
+ * — cost is a property of the runs, not of the gradeable subset), extended
+ * with the worker-token rollup.
+ */
+export function costRollup(
+  ledger: LedgerRow[],
+  supJournalTrue: Record<string, number | null>,
+  workerTokens: Record<string, WorkerTokens>,
+): CostRollup {
+  const rows = [...ledger].sort((a, b) => (a.iid < b.iid ? -1 : a.iid > b.iid ? 1 : 0))
+  let soloTokens = 0
+  let supBrainTokens = 0
+  let supUsd = 0
+  let soloWallS = 0
+  let supWallS = 0
+  const telemetryGaps: string[] = []
+  for (const r of rows) {
+    soloTokens += r.solo_tokens
+    const journalTrue = supJournalTrue[r.iid] ?? null
+    supBrainTokens += journalTrue ?? r.sup_spentTokens ?? 0
+    supUsd += r.sup_spentUsd ?? 0
+    soloWallS += r.solo_wall_s
+    supWallS += r.sup_wall_s
+    if (journalTrue !== null && (r.sup_spentTokens ?? 0) !== journalTrue) telemetryGaps.push(r.iid)
+  }
+  const supWorkerTokens = Object.values(workerTokens).reduce((s, w) => s + w.worker_tok, 0)
+  const supTotalTokens = supBrainTokens + supWorkerTokens
+  const blendedRatePerTok = supBrainTokens > 0 ? supUsd / supBrainTokens : 0
+  return {
+    soloTokens,
+    supBrainTokens,
+    supWorkerTokens,
+    supTotalTokens,
+    supUsd,
+    blendedRatePerTok,
+    soloUsdDerived: soloTokens * blendedRatePerTok,
+    brainTokenRatio: soloTokens > 0 ? supBrainTokens / soloTokens : 0,
+    totalTokenRatio: soloTokens > 0 ? supTotalTokens / soloTokens : 0,
+    soloWallS,
+    supWallS,
+    wallRatio: soloWallS > 0 ? supWallS / soloWallS : 0,
+    telemetryGaps,
+  }
+}
+
+/** Round label for the original head-to-head SUP run in the ledger. */
+export type SupRound = 'SUP' | 'SUP2' | 'SUP3' | 'SUP4'
+
+export interface RoundState {
+  round: SupRound
+  resolved: boolean
+  verifyPass: boolean
+  patchLines: number
+  verdict: 'delivered' | 'no-winner' | 'best-effort' | null
+  delivered: boolean | null
+  spentTokens: number | null
+}
+
+/**
+ * Supervisor evolution progression: the original SUP run (round 0, from the
+ * ledger) followed by each rematch round, for every instance that appears in
+ * at least one rematch file.
+ */
+export function roundsProgression(
+  ledger: LedgerRow[],
+  rounds: RematchRow[][],
+): Map<string, RoundState[]> {
+  const byIid = new Map<string, RoundState[]>()
+  const rematchIids = new Set(rounds.flat().map((r) => r.iid))
+  for (const r of ledger) {
+    if (!rematchIids.has(r.iid)) continue
+    byIid.set(r.iid, [
+      {
+        round: 'SUP',
+        resolved: r.sup_resolved === true,
+        verifyPass: r.sup_verify_pass === true,
+        patchLines: r.sup_patch_lines,
+        verdict: r.sup_verdict,
+        delivered: r.sup_delivered,
+        spentTokens: r.sup_spentTokens,
+      },
+    ])
+  }
+  for (const round of rounds) {
+    for (const r of round) {
+      const states = byIid.get(r.iid)
+      if (!states) throw new Error(`rematch row for ${r.iid} has no ledger baseline`)
+      states.push({
+        round: r.arm,
+        resolved: r.resolved === true,
+        verifyPass: r.verify_pass === true,
+        patchLines: r.patch_lines,
+        verdict: r.sup_verdict,
+        delivered: r.delivered,
+        spentTokens: r.spentTokens,
+      })
+    }
+  }
+  return byIid
+}