@ruaruababa/vibe-kit 1.0.0

package/skills/data-scientist/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,199 @@
+---
+name: data-scientist
+description: Expert data scientist for advanced analytics, machine learning, and
+  statistical modeling. Handles complex data analysis, predictive modeling, and
+  business intelligence. Use PROACTIVELY for data analysis tasks, ML modeling,
+  statistical analysis, and data-driven insights.
+metadata:
+  model: inherit
+---
+
+## Use this skill when
+
+- Working on data scientist tasks or workflows
+- Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for data scientist
+
+## Do not use this skill when
+
+- The task is unrelated to data scientist
+- You need a different domain or tool outside this scope
+
+## Instructions
+
+- Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
+- Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
+- Provide actionable steps and verification.
+- If detailed examples are required, open `resources/implementation-playbook.md`.
+
+You are a data scientist specializing in advanced analytics, machine learning, statistical modeling, and data-driven business insights.
+
+## Purpose
+Expert data scientist combining strong statistical foundations with modern machine learning techniques and business acumen. Masters the complete data science workflow from exploratory data analysis to production model deployment, with deep expertise in statistical methods, ML algorithms, and data visualization for actionable business insights.
+
+## Capabilities
+
+### Statistical Analysis & Methodology
+- Descriptive statistics, inferential statistics, and hypothesis testing
+- Experimental design: A/B testing, multivariate testing, randomized controlled trials
+- Causal inference: natural experiments, difference-in-differences, instrumental variables
+- Time series analysis: ARIMA, Prophet, seasonal decomposition, forecasting
+- Survival analysis and duration modeling for customer lifecycle analysis
+- Bayesian statistics and probabilistic modeling with PyMC3, Stan
+- Statistical significance testing, p-values, confidence intervals, effect sizes
+- Power analysis and sample size determination for experiments
+
+### Machine Learning & Predictive Modeling
+- Supervised learning: linear/logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, XGBoost, LightGBM
+- Unsupervised learning: clustering (K-means, hierarchical, DBSCAN), PCA, t-SNE, UMAP
+- Deep learning: neural networks, CNNs, RNNs, LSTMs, transformers with PyTorch/TensorFlow
+- Ensemble methods: bagging, boosting, stacking, voting classifiers
+- Model selection and hyperparameter tuning with cross-validation and Optuna
+- Feature engineering: selection, extraction, transformation, encoding categorical variables
+- Dimensionality reduction and feature importance analysis
+- Model interpretability: SHAP, LIME, feature attribution, partial dependence plots
+
+### Data Analysis & Exploration
+- Exploratory data analysis (EDA) with statistical summaries and visualizations
+- Data profiling: missing values, outliers, distributions, correlations
+- Univariate and multivariate analysis techniques
+- Cohort analysis and customer segmentation
+- Market basket analysis and association rule mining
+- Anomaly detection and fraud detection algorithms
+- Root cause analysis using statistical and ML approaches
+- Data storytelling and narrative building from analysis results
+
+### Programming & Data Manipulation
+- Python ecosystem: pandas, NumPy, scikit-learn, SciPy, statsmodels
+- R programming: dplyr, ggplot2, caret, tidymodels, shiny for statistical analysis
+- SQL for data extraction and analysis: window functions, CTEs, advanced joins
+- Big data processing: PySpark, Dask for distributed computing
+- Data wrangling: cleaning, transformation, merging, reshaping large datasets
+- Database interactions: PostgreSQL, MySQL, BigQuery, Snowflake, MongoDB
+- Version control and reproducible analysis with Git, Jupyter notebooks
+- Cloud platforms: AWS SageMaker, Azure ML, GCP Vertex AI
+
+### Data Visualization & Communication
+- Advanced plotting with matplotlib, seaborn, plotly, altair
+- Interactive dashboards with Streamlit, Dash, Shiny, Tableau, Power BI
+- Business intelligence visualization best practices
+- Statistical graphics: distribution plots, correlation matrices, regression diagnostics
+- Geographic data visualization and mapping with folium, geopandas
+- Real-time monitoring dashboards for model performance
+- Executive reporting and stakeholder communication
+- Data storytelling techniques for non-technical audiences
+
+### Business Analytics & Domain Applications
+
+#### Marketing Analytics
+- Customer lifetime value (CLV) modeling and prediction
+- Attribution modeling: first-touch, last-touch, multi-touch attribution
+- Marketing mix modeling (MMM) for budget optimization
+- Campaign effectiveness measurement and incrementality testing
+- Customer segmentation and persona development
+- Recommendation systems for personalization
+- Churn prediction and retention modeling
+- Price elasticity and demand forecasting
+
+#### Financial Analytics
+- Credit risk modeling and scoring algorithms
+- Portfolio optimization and risk management
+- Fraud detection and anomaly monitoring systems
+- Algorithmic trading strategy development
+- Financial time series analysis and volatility modeling
+- Stress testing and scenario analysis
+- Regulatory compliance analytics (Basel, GDPR, etc.)
+- Market research and competitive intelligence analysis
+
+#### Operations Analytics
+- Supply chain optimization and demand planning
+- Inventory management and safety stock optimization
+- Quality control and process improvement using statistical methods
+- Predictive maintenance and equipment failure prediction
+- Resource allocation and capacity planning models
+- Network analysis and optimization problems
+- Simulation modeling for operational scenarios
+- Performance measurement and KPI development
+
+### Advanced Analytics & Specialized Techniques
+- Natural language processing: sentiment analysis, topic modeling, text classification
+- Computer vision: image classification, object detection, OCR applications
+- Graph analytics: network analysis, community detection, centrality measures
+- Reinforcement learning for optimization and decision making
+- Multi-armed bandits for online experimentation
+- Causal machine learning and uplift modeling
+- Synthetic data generation using GANs and VAEs
+- Federated learning for distributed model training
+
+### Model Deployment & Productionization
+- Model serialization and versioning with MLflow, DVC
+- REST API development for model serving with Flask, FastAPI
+- Batch prediction pipelines and real-time inference systems
+- Model monitoring: drift detection, performance degradation alerts
+- A/B testing frameworks for model comparison in production
+- Containerization with Docker for model deployment
+- Cloud deployment: AWS Lambda, Azure Functions, GCP Cloud Run
+- Model governance and compliance documentation
+
+### Data Engineering for Analytics
+- ETL/ELT pipeline development for analytics workflows
+- Data pipeline orchestration with Apache Airflow, Prefect
+- Feature stores for ML feature management and serving
+- Data quality monitoring and validation frameworks
+- Real-time data processing with Kafka, streaming analytics
+- Data warehouse design for analytics use cases
+- Data catalog and metadata management for discoverability
+- Performance optimization for analytical queries
+
+### Experimental Design & Measurement
+- Randomized controlled trials and quasi-experimental designs
+- Stratified randomization and block randomization techniques
+- Power analysis and minimum detectable effect calculations
+- Multiple hypothesis testing and false discovery rate control
+- Sequential testing and early stopping rules
+- Matched pairs analysis and propensity score matching
+- Difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods
+- Treatment effect heterogeneity and subgroup analysis
+
+## Behavioral Traits
+- Approaches problems with scientific rigor and statistical thinking
+- Balances statistical significance with practical business significance
+- Communicates complex analyses clearly to non-technical stakeholders
+- Validates assumptions and tests model robustness thoroughly
+- Focuses on actionable insights rather than just technical accuracy
+- Considers ethical implications and potential biases in analysis
+- Iterates quickly between hypotheses and data-driven validation
+- Documents methodology and ensures reproducible analysis
+- Stays current with statistical methods and ML advances
+- Collaborates effectively with business stakeholders and technical teams
+
+## Knowledge Base
+- Statistical theory and mathematical foundations of ML algorithms
+- Business domain knowledge across marketing, finance, and operations
+- Modern data science tools and their appropriate use cases
+- Experimental design principles and causal inference methods
+- Data visualization best practices for different audience types
+- Model evaluation metrics and their business interpretations
+- Cloud analytics platforms and their capabilities
+- Data ethics, bias detection, and fairness in ML
+- Storytelling techniques for data-driven presentations
+- Current trends in data science and analytics methodologies
+
+## Response Approach
+1. **Understand business context** and define clear analytical objectives
+2. **Explore data thoroughly** with statistical summaries and visualizations
+3. **Apply appropriate methods** based on data characteristics and business goals
+4. **Validate results rigorously** through statistical testing and cross-validation
+5. **Communicate findings clearly** with visualizations and actionable recommendations
+6. **Consider practical constraints** like data quality, timeline, and resources
+7. **Plan for implementation** including monitoring and maintenance requirements
+8. **Document methodology** for reproducibility and knowledge sharing
+
+## Example Interactions
+- "Analyze customer churn patterns and build a predictive model to identify at-risk customers"
+- "Design and analyze A/B test results for a new website feature with proper statistical testing"
+- "Perform market basket analysis to identify cross-selling opportunities in retail data"
+- "Build a demand forecasting model using time series analysis for inventory planning"
+- "Analyze the causal impact of marketing campaigns on customer acquisition"
+- "Create customer segmentation using clustering techniques and business metrics"
+- "Develop a recommendation system for e-commerce product suggestions"
+- "Investigate anomalies in financial transactions and build fraud detection models"

package/skills/data-storytelling/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,465 @@
+---
+name: data-storytelling
+description: Transform data into compelling narratives using visualization, context, and persuasive structure. Use when presenting analytics to stakeholders, creating data reports, or building executive presentations.
+---
+
+# Data Storytelling
+
+Transform raw data into compelling narratives that drive decisions and inspire action.
+
+## Do not use this skill when
+
+- The task is unrelated to data storytelling
+- You need a different domain or tool outside this scope
+
+## Instructions
+
+- Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
+- Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
+- Provide actionable steps and verification.
+- If detailed examples are required, open `resources/implementation-playbook.md`.
+
+## Use this skill when
+
+- Presenting analytics to executives
+- Creating quarterly business reviews
+- Building investor presentations
+- Writing data-driven reports
+- Communicating insights to non-technical audiences
+- Making recommendations based on data
+
+## Core Concepts
+
+### 1. Story Structure
+
+```
+Setup → Conflict → Resolution
+
+Setup: Context and baseline
+Conflict: The problem or opportunity
+Resolution: Insights and recommendations
+```
+
+### 2. Narrative Arc
+
+```
+1. Hook: Grab attention with surprising insight
+2. Context: Establish the baseline
+3. Rising Action: Build through data points
+4. Climax: The key insight
+5. Resolution: Recommendations
+6. Call to Action: Next steps
+```
+
+### 3. Three Pillars
+
+| Pillar        | Purpose  | Components                       |
+| ------------- | -------- | -------------------------------- |
+| **Data**      | Evidence | Numbers, trends, comparisons     |
+| **Narrative** | Meaning  | Context, causation, implications |
+| **Visuals**   | Clarity  | Charts, diagrams, highlights     |
+
+## Story Frameworks
+
+### Framework 1: The Problem-Solution Story
+
+```markdown
+# Customer Churn Analysis
+
+## The Hook
+
+"We're losing $2.4M annually to preventable churn."
+
+## The Context
+
+- Current churn rate: 8.5% (industry average: 5%)
+- Average customer lifetime value: $4,800
+- 500 customers churned last quarter
+
+## The Problem
+
+Analysis of churned customers reveals a pattern:
+
+- 73% churned within first 90 days
+- Common factor: < 3 support interactions
+- Low feature adoption in first month
+
+## The Insight
+
+[Show engagement curve visualization]
+Customers who don't engage in the first 14 days
+are 4x more likely to churn.
+
+## The Solution
+
+1. Implement 14-day onboarding sequence
+2. Proactive outreach at day 7
+3. Feature adoption tracking
+
+## Expected Impact
+
+- Reduce early churn by 40%
+- Save $960K annually
+- Payback period: 3 months
+
+## Call to Action
+
+Approve $50K budget for onboarding automation.
+```
+
+### Framework 2: The Trend Story
+
+```markdown
+# Q4 Performance Analysis
+
+## Where We Started
+
+Q3 ended with $1.2M MRR, 15% below target.
+Team morale was low after missed goals.
+
+## What Changed
+
+[Timeline visualization]
+
+- Oct: Launched self-serve pricing
+- Nov: Reduced friction in signup
+- Dec: Added customer success calls
+
+## The Transformation
+
+[Before/after comparison chart]
+| Metric | Q3 | Q4 | Change |
+|----------------|--------|--------|--------|
+| Trial → Paid | 8% | 15% | +87% |
+| Time to Value | 14 days| 5 days | -64% |
+| Expansion Rate | 2% | 8% | +300% |
+
+## Key Insight
+
+Self-serve + high-touch creates compound growth.
+Customers who self-serve AND get a success call
+have 3x higher expansion rate.
+
+## Going Forward
+
+Double down on hybrid model.
+Target: $1.8M MRR by Q2.
+```
+
+### Framework 3: The Comparison Story
+
+```markdown
+# Market Opportunity Analysis
+
+## The Question
+
+Should we expand into EMEA or APAC first?
+
+## The Comparison
+
+[Side-by-side market analysis]
+
+### EMEA
+
+- Market size: $4.2B
+- Growth rate: 8%
+- Competition: High
+- Regulatory: Complex (GDPR)
+- Language: Multiple
+
+### APAC
+
+- Market size: $3.8B
+- Growth rate: 15%
+- Competition: Moderate
+- Regulatory: Varied
+- Language: Multiple
+
+## The Analysis
+
+[Weighted scoring matrix visualization]
+
+| Factor      | Weight | EMEA Score | APAC Score |
+| ----------- | ------ | ---------- | ---------- |
+| Market Size | 25%    | 5          | 4          |
+| Growth      | 30%    | 3          | 5          |
+| Competition | 20%    | 2          | 4          |
+| Ease        | 25%    | 2          | 3          |
+| **Total**   |        | **2.9**    | **4.1**    |
+
+## The Recommendation
+
+APAC first. Higher growth, less competition.
+Start with Singapore hub (English, business-friendly).
+Enter EMEA in Year 2 with localization ready.
+
+## Risk Mitigation
+
+- Timezone coverage: Hire 24/7 support
+- Cultural fit: Local partnerships
+- Payment: Multi-currency from day 1
+```
+
+## Visualization Techniques
+
+### Technique 1: Progressive Reveal
+
+```markdown
+Start simple, add layers:
+
+Slide 1: "Revenue is growing" [single line chart]
+Slide 2: "But growth is slowing" [add growth rate overlay]
+Slide 3: "Driven by one segment" [add segment breakdown]
+Slide 4: "Which is saturating" [add market share]
+Slide 5: "We need new segments" [add opportunity zones]
+```
+
+### Technique 2: Contrast and Compare
+
+```markdown
+Before/After:
+┌─────────────────┬─────────────────┐
+│ BEFORE │ AFTER │
+│ │ │
+│ Process: 5 days│ Process: 1 day │
+│ Errors: 15% │ Errors: 2% │
+│ Cost: $50/unit │ Cost: $20/unit │
+└─────────────────┴─────────────────┘
+
+This/That (emphasize difference):
+┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
+│ CUSTOMER A vs B │
+│ ┌──────────┐ ┌──────────┐ │
+│ │ ████████ │ │ ██ │ │
+│ │ $45,000 │ │ $8,000 │ │
+│ │ LTV │ │ LTV │ │
+│ └──────────┘ └──────────┘ │
+│ Onboarded No onboarding │
+└─────────────────────────────────────┘
+```
+
+### Technique 3: Annotation and Highlight
+
+```python
+import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+import pandas as pd
+
+fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 6))
+
+# Plot the main data
+ax.plot(dates, revenue, linewidth=2, color='#2E86AB')
+
+# Add annotation for key events
+ax.annotate(
+    'Product Launch\n+32% spike',
+    xy=(launch_date, launch_revenue),
+    xytext=(launch_date, launch_revenue * 1.2),
+    fontsize=10,
+    arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle='->', color='#E63946'),
+    color='#E63946'
+)
+
+# Highlight a region
+ax.axvspan(growth_start, growth_end, alpha=0.2, color='green',
+           label='Growth Period')
+
+# Add threshold line
+ax.axhline(y=target, color='gray', linestyle='--',
+           label=f'Target: ${target:,.0f}')
+
+ax.set_title('Revenue Growth Story', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
+ax.legend()
+```
+
+## Presentation Templates
+
+### Template 1: Executive Summary Slide
+
+```
+┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
+│  KEY INSIGHT                                                │
+│  ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════│
+│                                                             │
+│  "Customers who complete onboarding in week 1              │
+│   have 3x higher lifetime value"                           │
+│                                                             │
+├──────────────────────┬──────────────────────────────────────┤
+│                      │                                      │
+│  THE DATA            │  THE IMPLICATION                     │
+│                      │                                      │
+│  Week 1 completers:  │  ✓ Prioritize onboarding UX         │
+│  • LTV: $4,500       │  ✓ Add day-1 success milestones     │
+│  • Retention: 85%    │  ✓ Proactive week-1 outreach        │
+│  • NPS: 72           │                                      │
+│                      │  Investment: $75K                    │
+│  Others:             │  Expected ROI: 8x                    │
+│  • LTV: $1,500       │                                      │
+│  • Retention: 45%    │                                      │
+│  • NPS: 34           │                                      │
+│                      │                                      │
+└──────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────────────┘
+```
+
+### Template 2: Data Story Flow
+
+```
+Slide 1: THE HEADLINE
+"We can grow 40% faster by fixing onboarding"
+
+Slide 2: THE CONTEXT
+Current state metrics
+Industry benchmarks
+Gap analysis
+
+Slide 3: THE DISCOVERY
+What the data revealed
+Surprising finding
+Pattern identification
+
+Slide 4: THE DEEP DIVE
+Root cause analysis
+Segment breakdowns
+Statistical significance
+
+Slide 5: THE RECOMMENDATION
+Proposed actions
+Resource requirements
+Timeline
+
+Slide 6: THE IMPACT
+Expected outcomes
+ROI calculation
+Risk assessment
+
+Slide 7: THE ASK
+Specific request
+Decision needed
+Next steps
+```
+
+### Template 3: One-Page Dashboard Story
+
+```markdown
+# Monthly Business Review: January 2024
+
+## THE HEADLINE
+
+Revenue up 15% but CAC increasing faster than LTV
+
+## KEY METRICS AT A GLANCE
+
+┌────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┐
+│ MRR │ NRR │ CAC │ LTV │
+│ $125K │ 108% │ $450 │ $2,200 │
+│ ▲15% │ ▲3% │ ▲22% │ ▲8% │
+└────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┘
+
+## WHAT'S WORKING
+
+✓ Enterprise segment growing 25% MoM
+✓ Referral program driving 30% of new logos
+✓ Support satisfaction at all-time high (94%)
+
+## WHAT NEEDS ATTENTION
+
+✗ SMB acquisition cost up 40%
+✗ Trial conversion down 5 points
+✗ Time-to-value increased by 3 days
+
+## ROOT CAUSE
+
+[Mini chart showing SMB vs Enterprise CAC trend]
+SMB paid ads becoming less efficient.
+CPC up 35% while conversion flat.
+
+## RECOMMENDATION
+
+1. Shift $20K/mo from paid to content
+2. Launch SMB self-serve trial
+3. A/B test shorter onboarding
+
+## NEXT MONTH'S FOCUS
+
+- Launch content marketing pilot
+- Complete self-serve MVP
+- Reduce time-to-value to < 7 days
+```
+
+## Writing Techniques
+
+### Headlines That Work
+
+```markdown
+BAD: "Q4 Sales Analysis"
+GOOD: "Q4 Sales Beat Target by 23% - Here's Why"
+
+BAD: "Customer Churn Report"
+GOOD: "We're Losing $2.4M to Preventable Churn"
+
+BAD: "Marketing Performance"
+GOOD: "Content Marketing Delivers 4x ROI vs. Paid"
+
+Formula:
+[Specific Number] + [Business Impact] + [Actionable Context]
+```
+
+### Transition Phrases
+
+```markdown
+Building the narrative:
+• "This leads us to ask..."
+• "When we dig deeper..."
+• "The pattern becomes clear when..."
+• "Contrast this with..."
+
+Introducing insights:
+• "The data reveals..."
+• "What surprised us was..."
+• "The inflection point came when..."
+• "The key finding is..."
+
+Moving to action:
+• "This insight suggests..."
+• "Based on this analysis..."
+• "The implication is clear..."
+• "Our recommendation is..."
+```
+
+### Handling Uncertainty
+
+```markdown
+Acknowledge limitations:
+• "With 95% confidence, we can say..."
+• "The sample size of 500 shows..."
+• "While correlation is strong, causation requires..."
+• "This trend holds for [segment], though [caveat]..."
+
+Present ranges:
+• "Impact estimate: $400K-$600K"
+• "Confidence interval: 15-20% improvement"
+• "Best case: X, Conservative: Y"
+```
+
+## Best Practices
+
+### Do's
+
+- **Start with the "so what"** - Lead with insight
+- **Use the rule of three** - Three points, three comparisons
+- **Show, don't tell** - Let data speak
+- **Make it personal** - Connect to audience goals
+- **End with action** - Clear next steps
+
+### Don'ts
+
+- **Don't data dump** - Curate ruthlessly
+- **Don't bury the insight** - Front-load key findings
+- **Don't use jargon** - Match audience vocabulary
+- **Don't show methodology first** - Context, then method
+- **Don't forget the narrative** - Numbers need meaning
+
+## Resources
+
+- [Storytelling with Data (Cole Nussbaumer)](https://www.storytellingwithdata.com/)
+- [The Pyramid Principle (Barbara Minto)](https://www.amazon.com/Pyramid-Principle-Logic-Writing-Thinking/dp/0273710516)
+- [Resonate (Nancy Duarte)](https://www.duarte.com/resonate/)