pulseed 0.5.3 → 0.6.0

package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/divergent-exploration.js

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+import { randomUUID } from "node:crypto";
+import { parseStrategy } from "../../base/types/strategy.js";
+const DEFAULT_MIN_DIVERGENT_CANDIDATES = 1;
+const DEFAULT_MIN_NOVELTY_SCORE = 0.72;
+const TOKEN_STOP_WORDS = new Set([
+    "a",
+    "an",
+    "and",
+    "around",
+    "by",
+    "for",
+    "from",
+    "in",
+    "of",
+    "on",
+    "or",
+    "the",
+    "to",
+    "use",
+    "using",
+    "with",
+]);
+export function shouldRequestDivergentExploration(input) {
+    if (input.stallCount >= 2)
+        return true;
+    if (input.trigger === "predicted_plateau" || input.trigger === "predicted_regression")
+        return true;
+    return input.metricTrendContext?.trend === "stalled" || input.metricTrendContext?.trend === "regressing";
+}
+export function buildDivergentRecoveryPortfolio(rawCandidates, input) {
+    const minDivergentCandidates = input.minDivergentCandidates ?? DEFAULT_MIN_DIVERGENT_CANDIDATES;
+    const minNoveltyScore = input.minNoveltyScore ?? DEFAULT_MIN_NOVELTY_SCORE;
+    if (rawCandidates.length === 0) {
+        return {
+            candidates: [],
+            insertedFallback: false,
+            minDivergentCandidates,
+            minNoveltyScore,
+        };
+    }
+    const lineage = buildLineage(input);
+    const annotated = rawCandidates.map((candidate) => annotateCandidate(candidate, input, lineage, minNoveltyScore));
+    const highNoveltyCount = annotated.filter((candidate) => candidate.exploration?.role === "divergent_exploration"
+        && (candidate.exploration.novelty_score ?? 0) >= minNoveltyScore
+        && candidate.exploration.smoke.status !== "retire").length;
+    let candidates = annotated;
+    let insertedFallback = false;
+    if (highNoveltyCount < minDivergentCandidates) {
+        candidates = [
+            buildFallbackDivergentCandidate(input, lineage, minNoveltyScore),
+            ...candidates,
+        ];
+        insertedFallback = true;
+    }
+    return {
+        candidates: rankDivergentCandidates(candidates),
+        insertedFallback,
+        minDivergentCandidates,
+        minNoveltyScore,
+    };
+}
+export function rankDivergentCandidates(candidates) {
+    return [...candidates].sort((left, right) => scoreCandidate(right) - scoreCandidate(left)
+        || left.created_at.localeCompare(right.created_at)
+        || left.id.localeCompare(right.id));
+}
+export function applySmokeResult(strategy, input) {
+    const exploration = strategy.exploration;
+    if (!exploration) {
+        return parseStrategy({
+            ...strategy,
+            exploration: {
+                schema_version: "strategy-exploration-v1",
+                phase: "divergent_stall_recovery",
+                role: "adjacent_exploration",
+                strategy_family: inferStrategyFamily(strategy.hypothesis),
+                novelty_score: 0.5,
+                similarity_to_recent_failures: 0,
+                expected_cost: inferExpectedCost(strategy),
+                relationship_to_lineage: "unknown",
+                smoke: {
+                    status: input.status,
+                    reason: input.reason,
+                    ...(input.evidenceRef ? { evidence_ref: input.evidenceRef } : {}),
+                },
+                speculative: true,
+                evidence_authority: "speculative_hypothesis",
+            },
+        });
+    }
+    return parseStrategy({
+        ...strategy,
+        allocation: input.status === "promote" ? Math.max(strategy.allocation, 0.35) : strategy.allocation,
+        exploration: {
+            ...exploration,
+            downrank_reason: input.status === "retire"
+                ? input.reason
+                : input.status === "defer"
+                    ? input.reason
+                    : exploration.downrank_reason,
+            smoke: {
+                status: input.status,
+                reason: input.reason,
+                ...(input.evidenceRef ? { evidence_ref: input.evidenceRef } : {}),
+            },
+        },
+    });
+}
+export function collectDivergentHypotheses(strategies) {
+    return strategies
+        .filter((strategy) => strategy.exploration?.phase === "divergent_stall_recovery")
+        .map((strategy) => ({
+        strategy_id: strategy.id,
+        hypothesis: strategy.hypothesis,
+        strategy_family: strategy.exploration.strategy_family,
+        role: strategy.exploration.role,
+        novelty_score: strategy.exploration.novelty_score,
+        similarity_to_recent_failures: strategy.exploration.similarity_to_recent_failures,
+        expected_cost: strategy.exploration.expected_cost,
+        relationship_to_lineage: strategy.exploration.relationship_to_lineage,
+        prior_evidence: strategy.exploration.prior_evidence,
+        downrank_reason: strategy.exploration.downrank_reason,
+        smoke_status: strategy.exploration.smoke.status,
+        smoke_reason: strategy.exploration.smoke.reason,
+        smoke_evidence_ref: strategy.exploration.smoke.evidence_ref,
+        evidence_authority: "speculative_hypothesis",
+    }));
+}
+function annotateCandidate(candidate, input, lineage, minNoveltyScore) {
+    const maxSimilarity = Math.max(0, ...lineage.map((strategy) => similarity(candidate.hypothesis, strategy.hypothesis)));
+    const family = candidate.exploration?.strategy_family ?? inferStrategyFamily(candidate.hypothesis);
+    const lineageFamilies = new Set(lineage.map((strategy) => inferStrategyFamily(strategy.hypothesis)));
+    const hasNewEvidence = Boolean(candidate.exploration?.prior_evidence)
+        || input.metricTrendContext?.trend === "breakthrough"
+        || candidate.exploration?.smoke.status === "promote";
+    const noveltyScore = clamp01(candidate.exploration?.novelty_score
+        ?? (1 - maxSimilarity + (lineageFamilies.has(family) ? -0.1 : 0.15)));
+    const relationship = candidate.exploration?.relationship_to_lineage
+        ?? inferRelationship(maxSimilarity, family, lineageFamilies);
+    const role = candidate.exploration?.role ?? roleFromNovelty(noveltyScore, minNoveltyScore);
+    const downrankReason = candidate.exploration?.downrank_reason
+        ?? (!hasNewEvidence && (maxSimilarity >= 0.5 || relationship === "failed_lineage")
+            ? "similar_to_recent_failed_lineage_without_new_evidence"
+            : undefined);
+    return parseStrategy({
+        ...candidate,
+        allocation: candidate.allocation > 0
+            ? candidate.allocation
+            : role === "divergent_exploration" ? 0.35 : role === "adjacent_exploration" ? 0.25 : 0.2,
+        exploration: {
+            schema_version: "strategy-exploration-v1",
+            phase: "divergent_stall_recovery",
+            role,
+            strategy_family: family,
+            novelty_score: noveltyScore,
+            similarity_to_recent_failures: clamp01(maxSimilarity),
+            expected_cost: candidate.exploration?.expected_cost ?? inferExpectedCost(candidate),
+            relationship_to_lineage: relationship,
+            prior_evidence: candidate.exploration?.prior_evidence ?? input.metricTrendContext?.summary,
+            downrank_reason: downrankReason,
+            smoke: candidate.exploration?.smoke ?? {
+                status: "not_run",
+                reason: role === "divergent_exploration"
+                    ? "Run a smoke-scale probe before expensive execution."
+                    : "Smoke check optional before full execution.",
+            },
+            speculative: true,
+            evidence_authority: "speculative_hypothesis",
+        },
+    });
+}
+function buildFallbackDivergentCandidate(input, lineage, minNoveltyScore) {
+    const failedFamilies = [...new Set(lineage.map((strategy) => inferStrategyFamily(strategy.hypothesis)))]
+        .filter(Boolean)
+        .slice(0, 3);
+    const dimension = input.primaryDimension || input.targetDimensions[0] || "primary_outcome";
+    const now = new Date().toISOString();
+    return parseStrategy({
+        id: randomUUID(),
+        goal_id: input.goalId,
+        target_dimensions: input.targetDimensions.length > 0 ? input.targetDimensions : [dimension],
+        primary_dimension: dimension,
+        hypothesis: `Run a smoke-scale divergent audit that challenges the current ${failedFamilies.join(", ") || "local-search"} framing with a different mechanism before more refinements`,
+        expected_effect: [{
+                dimension,
+                direction: "increase",
+                magnitude: "medium",
+            }],
+        resource_estimate: {
+            sessions: 1,
+            duration: { value: 30, unit: "minutes" },
+            llm_calls: 1,
+        },
+        allocation: 0.35,
+        state: "candidate",
+        created_at: now,
+        started_at: null,
+        completed_at: null,
+        gap_snapshot_at_start: input.currentGap,
+        tasks_generated: [],
+        effectiveness_score: null,
+        consecutive_stall_count: 0,
+        required_tools: [],
+        exploration: {
+            schema_version: "strategy-exploration-v1",
+            phase: "divergent_stall_recovery",
+            role: "divergent_exploration",
+            strategy_family: "framing-audit-smoke",
+            novelty_score: Math.max(minNoveltyScore, 0.82),
+            similarity_to_recent_failures: 0,
+            expected_cost: "low",
+            relationship_to_lineage: "different_assumption",
+            prior_evidence: input.metricTrendContext?.summary
+                ?? "Existing stall recovery reached sustained stall without enough high-novelty hypotheses.",
+            smoke: {
+                status: "not_run",
+                reason: "Smoke-scale audit only; promote to full execution only if it finds actionable evidence.",
+            },
+            speculative: true,
+            evidence_authority: "speculative_hypothesis",
+        },
+    });
+}
+function buildLineage(input) {
+    const failedOrStalled = input.pastStrategies.filter((strategy) => strategy.state === "terminated"
+        || (strategy.effectiveness_score !== null && strategy.effectiveness_score < 0.35)
+        || strategy.consecutive_stall_count > 0);
+    const best = input.pastStrategies
+        .filter((strategy) => strategy.effectiveness_score !== null)
+        .sort((left, right) => (right.effectiveness_score ?? 0) - (left.effectiveness_score ?? 0))[0];
+    return [
+        ...(input.activeStrategy ? [input.activeStrategy] : []),
+        ...(best ? [best] : []),
+        ...failedOrStalled,
+    ].filter((strategy, index, all) => all.findIndex((candidate) => candidate.id === strategy.id) === index);
+}
+function scoreCandidate(strategy) {
+    const exploration = strategy.exploration;
+    if (!exploration)
+        return 0;
+    if (exploration.smoke.status === "retire")
+        return -100;
+    const roleScore = exploration.role === "divergent_exploration"
+        ? 3
+        : exploration.role === "adjacent_exploration"
+            ? 1.5
+            : 0.5;
+    const smokeScore = exploration.smoke.status === "promote"
+        ? 2
+        : exploration.smoke.status === "defer"
+            ? -1
+            : 0;
+    const downrank = exploration.downrank_reason ? -1.5 : 0;
+    const costPenalty = exploration.expected_cost === "high" ? -0.4 : exploration.expected_cost === "medium" ? -0.1 : 0.2;
+    return roleScore + smokeScore + downrank + costPenalty + exploration.novelty_score - exploration.similarity_to_recent_failures;
+}
+function inferStrategyFamily(hypothesis) {
+    const normalized = hypothesis.toLowerCase();
+    if (/\b(stack|ensemble|blend|multi[- ]model|probability)\b/.test(normalized))
+        return "model-stack";
+    if (/\b(feature|cross|interaction|encoding|embedding)\b/.test(normalized))
+        return "feature-engineering";
+    if (/\b(audit|distribution|leakage|label|noise|data)\b/.test(normalized))
+        return "data-audit";
+    if (/\b(calibration|threshold|bias|class[- ]weight|weight)\b/.test(normalized))
+        return "calibration-threshold";
+    if (/\b(catboost|xgboost|lightgbm|model|classifier)\b/.test(normalized))
+        return "model-family";
+    if (/\b(research|public|paper|writeup|source)\b/.test(normalized))
+        return "source-research";
+    return tokens(hypothesis).slice(0, 3).join("-") || "general";
+}
+function inferExpectedCost(strategy) {
+    const duration = strategy.resource_estimate.duration;
+    const unit = duration.unit;
+    const value = duration.value;
+    if (strategy.resource_estimate.sessions <= 1 && (unit === "minutes" || (unit === "hours" && value <= 2))) {
+        return "low";
+    }
+    if (unit === "days" || unit === "weeks" || strategy.resource_estimate.sessions >= 4) {
+        return "high";
+    }
+    return "medium";
+}
+function inferRelationship(maxSimilarity, family, lineageFamilies) {
+    if (maxSimilarity >= 0.7)
+        return "failed_lineage";
+    if (maxSimilarity >= 0.45 || lineageFamilies.has(family))
+        return "neighbor";
+    if (/audit|research|framing/.test(family))
+        return "different_assumption";
+    return "different_mechanism";
+}
+function roleFromNovelty(noveltyScore, minNoveltyScore) {
+    if (noveltyScore >= minNoveltyScore)
+        return "divergent_exploration";
+    if (noveltyScore >= 0.45)
+        return "adjacent_exploration";
+    return "exploitation";
+}
+function similarity(left, right) {
+    const leftTokens = new Set(tokens(left));
+    const rightTokens = new Set(tokens(right));
+    if (leftTokens.size === 0 || rightTokens.size === 0)
+        return 0;
+    let intersection = 0;
+    for (const token of leftTokens) {
+        if (rightTokens.has(token))
+            intersection += 1;
+    }
+    const union = new Set([...leftTokens, ...rightTokens]).size;
+    return union === 0 ? 0 : intersection / union;
+}
+function tokens(value) {
+    return value
+        .toLowerCase()
+        .replace(/[^a-z0-9]+/g, " ")
+        .split(/\s+/)
+        .filter((token) => token.length > 2 && !TOKEN_STOP_WORDS.has(token));
+}
+function clamp01(value) {
+    return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, value));
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=divergent-exploration.js.map

package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/divergent-exploration.js.map

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package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-manager.d.ts

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ import { StrategyManager } from "./strategy-manager.js";
 import { StateManager } from "../../base/state/state-manager.js";
 import type { Strategy, WaitExpiryOutcome } from "../../base/types/strategy.js";
 import type { PortfolioConfig, EffectivenessRecord, TaskSelectionResult, RebalanceTrigger, RebalanceResult } from "../../base/types/portfolio.js";
+import type { WaitStrategyActivationContext } from "./strategy-manager-base.js";
 /**
  * PortfolioManager provides portfolio-level orchestration on top of StrategyManager.
  *
@@ -85,7 +86,7 @@ export declare class PortfolioManager {
      * Single strategy: allocation = 1.0
      * Multiple: equal split as default, respecting min 0.1 and max 0.7, sum = 1.0
      */
-    activateStrategies(goalId: string, strategyIds: string[]): void;
+    activateStrategies(goalId: string, strategyIds: string[], activationContext?: WaitStrategyActivationContext): Promise<void>;
     /**
      * Check if a strategy is a WaitStrategy (has wait-specific fields).
      */
@@ -98,7 +99,7 @@ export declare class PortfolioManager {
      * - Gap unchanged: activate fallback strategy if one exists, otherwise trigger rebalance
      * - Gap worsened: terminate the WaitStrategy and trigger rebalance
      */
-    handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId: string, strategyId: string): Promise<WaitExpiryOutcome | null>;
+    handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId: string, strategyId: string, activationContext?: WaitStrategyActivationContext): Promise<WaitExpiryOutcome | null>;
     /**
      * Record a task completion timestamp for a strategy.
      * Called externally when a task finishes execution.

package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-manager.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-manager.js

@@ -1,8 +1,9 @@
 import * as path from "node:path";
 import { parseStrategy } from "../../base/types/strategy.js";
 import { PortfolioConfigSchema } from "../../base/types/portfolio.js";
-import { calculateInitialAllocations, countConsecutiveLowestRebalances, redistributeAllocation, adjustAllocations, handleWaitStrategyExpiry as _handleWaitStrategyExpiry, selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals as _selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals, getCurrentGapForDimension as _getCurrentGapForDimension, calculateGapDeltaForStrategy as _calculateGapDeltaForStrategy, } from "./portfolio-rebalance.js";
+import { countConsecutiveLowestRebalances, redistributeAllocation, adjustAllocations, handleWaitStrategyExpiry as _handleWaitStrategyExpiry, selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals as _selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals, getCurrentGapForDimension as _getCurrentGapForDimension, calculateGapDeltaForStrategy as _calculateGapDeltaForStrategy, } from "./portfolio-rebalance.js";
 import { ApprovalStore } from "../../runtime/store/approval-store.js";
+import { syncWaitStrategyScheduleProjection } from "../../runtime/schedule/wait-projection.js";
 import { isWaitStrategy, checkStrategyTermination, } from "./portfolio-allocation.js";
 /**
  * PortfolioManager provides portfolio-level orchestration on top of StrategyManager.
@@ -239,15 +240,10 @@ export class PortfolioManager {
      * Single strategy: allocation = 1.0
      * Multiple: equal split as default, respecting min 0.1 and max 0.7, sum = 1.0
      */
-    activateStrategies(goalId, strategyIds) {
+    async activateStrategies(goalId, strategyIds, activationContext) {
         if (strategyIds.length === 0)
             return;
-        const allocations = calculateInitialAllocations(strategyIds.length, this.config);
-        for (let i = 0; i < strategyIds.length; i++) {
-            const strategyId = strategyIds[i];
-            this.strategyManager.updateState(strategyId, "active");
-            this.updateStrategyAllocation(goalId, strategyId, allocations[i]);
-        }
+        await this.strategyManager.activateMultiple(goalId, strategyIds, activationContext);
     }
     /**
      * Check if a strategy is a WaitStrategy (has wait-specific fields).
@@ -263,19 +259,28 @@ export class PortfolioManager {
      * - Gap unchanged: activate fallback strategy if one exists, otherwise trigger rebalance
      * - Gap worsened: terminate the WaitStrategy and trigger rebalance
      */
-    async handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId, strategyId) {
+    async handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId, strategyId, activationContext) {
         const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
         if (!portfolio)
             return null;
         const strategy = portfolio.strategies.find((s) => s.id === strategyId);
         if (!strategy)
             return null;
-        return _handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId, strategyId, strategy, (s) => this.isWaitStrategy(s), (gId, dim) => this.getCurrentGapForDimension(gId, dim), (sId, state) => this.strategyManager.updateState(sId, state), async (gId) => (await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(gId))?.strategies ?? [], (gId, sId) => this.stateManager.readRaw(`strategies/${gId}/wait-meta/${sId}.json`), () => this.stateManager.readRaw("capability_registry.json"), (approvalId) => {
+        return _handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId, strategyId, strategy, (s) => this.isWaitStrategy(s), (gId, dim) => this.getCurrentGapForDimension(gId, dim), (sId, state) => this.strategyManager.updateState(sId, state), async (gId, sId) => {
+            await this.strategyManager.activateMultiple(gId, [sId], activationContext);
+        }, async (gId) => (await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(gId))?.strategies ?? [], (gId, sId) => this.stateManager.readRaw(`strategies/${gId}/wait-meta/${sId}.json`), () => this.stateManager.readRaw("capability_registry.json"), (approvalId) => {
             const getBaseDir = this.stateManager.getBaseDir;
             if (typeof getBaseDir !== "function")
                 return null;
             return new ApprovalStore(path.join(getBaseDir.call(this.stateManager), "runtime")).load(approvalId);
-        }, (gId, sId, metadata) => this.stateManager.writeRaw(`strategies/${gId}/wait-meta/${sId}.json`, metadata), () => {
+        }, async (gId, sId, metadata) => {
+            await this.stateManager.writeRaw(`strategies/${gId}/wait-meta/${sId}.json`, metadata);
+            await syncWaitStrategyScheduleProjection({
+                baseDir: this.stateManager.getBaseDir(),
+                goalId: gId,
+                strategyId: sId,
+            }).catch(() => undefined);
+        }, () => {
             const getBaseDir = this.stateManager.getBaseDir;
             return typeof getBaseDir === "function" ? getBaseDir.call(this.stateManager) : null;
         });

package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-manager.js.map

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package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-rebalance.d.ts

@@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ export declare function adjustAllocations(goalId: string, strategies: Strategy[]
  * @param updateState - transition a strategy to a new state
  * @param getPortfolioStrategies - get all strategies for a goal
  */
-export declare function handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId: string, strategyId: string, strategy: Strategy, isWaitStrategy: (s: Strategy) => boolean, getGap: (goalId: string, dimension: string) => number | null | Promise<number | null>, updateState: (strategyId: string, state: string) => void | Promise<void>, getPortfolioStrategies: (goalId: string) => Strategy[] | Promise<Strategy[]>, getWaitMetadata?: (goalId: string, strategyId: string) => unknown | null | Promise<unknown | null>, getCapabilityRegistry?: () => unknown | null | Promise<unknown | null>, getWaitApprovalRecord?: (approvalId: string) => unknown | null | Promise<unknown | null>, writeWaitMetadata?: (goalId: string, strategyId: string, metadata: WaitMetadata) => void | Promise<void>, getStateBaseDir?: () => string | null | undefined): Promise<WaitExpiryOutcome>;
+export declare function handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId: string, strategyId: string, strategy: Strategy, isWaitStrategy: (s: Strategy) => boolean, getGap: (goalId: string, dimension: string) => number | null | Promise<number | null>, updateState: (strategyId: string, state: string) => void | Promise<void>, activateStrategy: ((goalId: string, strategyId: string) => void | Promise<void>) | undefined, getPortfolioStrategies: (goalId: string) => Strategy[] | Promise<Strategy[]>, getWaitMetadata?: (goalId: string, strategyId: string) => unknown | null | Promise<unknown | null>, getCapabilityRegistry?: () => unknown | null | Promise<unknown | null>, getWaitApprovalRecord?: (approvalId: string) => unknown | null | Promise<unknown | null>, writeWaitMetadata?: (goalId: string, strategyId: string, metadata: WaitMetadata) => void | Promise<void>, getStateBaseDir?: () => string | null | undefined): Promise<WaitExpiryOutcome>;
 export declare function buildWaitApprovalId(goalId: string, strategyId: string): string;
 export declare function rebalanceTriggerFromWaitExpiryOutcome(outcome: WaitExpiryOutcome | null | undefined): RebalanceTrigger | null;
 /**

package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-rebalance.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-rebalance.js

@@ -187,7 +187,7 @@ export function adjustAllocations(goalId, strategies, scoredRecords, config, res
  * @param updateState - transition a strategy to a new state
  * @param getPortfolioStrategies - get all strategies for a goal
  */
-export async function handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId, strategyId, strategy, isWaitStrategy, getGap, updateState, getPortfolioStrategies, getWaitMetadata, getCapabilityRegistry, getWaitApprovalRecord, writeWaitMetadata, getStateBaseDir) {
+export async function handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId, strategyId, strategy, isWaitStrategy, getGap, updateState, activateStrategy, getPortfolioStrategies, getWaitMetadata, getCapabilityRegistry, getWaitApprovalRecord, writeWaitMetadata, getStateBaseDir) {
     if (!isWaitStrategy(strategy)) {
         return {
             status: "unknown",
@@ -292,14 +292,36 @@ export async function handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId, strategyId, strategy, isW
             const strategies = await getPortfolioStrategies(goalId);
             const fallback = strategies.find((s) => s.id === waitStrategy.fallback_strategy_id);
             if (fallback && fallback.state === "candidate") {
-                await updateState(fallback.id, "active");
-                await updateState(strategyId, "terminated");
-                return {
-                    status: "fallback_activated",
-                    goal_id: goalId,
-                    strategy_id: strategyId,
-                    details: `WaitStrategy expired unchanged; activated fallback strategy ${fallback.id}`,
-                };
+                try {
+                    if (activateStrategy) {
+                        await activateStrategy(goalId, fallback.id);
+                    }
+                    else {
+                        await updateState(fallback.id, "active");
+                    }
+                    await updateState(strategyId, "terminated");
+                    return {
+                        status: "fallback_activated",
+                        goal_id: goalId,
+                        strategy_id: strategyId,
+                        details: `WaitStrategy expired unchanged; activated fallback strategy ${fallback.id}`,
+                    };
+                }
+                catch (err) {
+                    await updateState(strategyId, "terminated");
+                    const details = `WaitStrategy expired unchanged; fallback strategy ${fallback.id} could not be activated: ${err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)}`;
+                    return {
+                        status: "unchanged",
+                        goal_id: goalId,
+                        strategy_id: strategyId,
+                        details,
+                        rebalance_trigger: {
+                            type: "stall_detected",
+                            strategy_id: strategyId,
+                            details,
+                        },
+                    };
+                }
             }
         }
         await updateState(strategyId, "terminated");