kanmi-perf-revenue 1.0.0 → 1.2.0

package/dist/empirical/alerting.js

@@ -0,0 +1,358 @@
+/**
+ * Alerting System
+ *
+ * Notify when performance metrics degrade or fall below thresholds.
+ * Provides configurable alerts and monitoring.
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+// =============================================================================
+// DEFAULT CONFIG
+// =============================================================================
+export const DEFAULT_THRESHOLDS = [
+    // Performance (higher is worse)
+    { metric: 'lcp', warningThreshold: 2500, criticalThreshold: 4000, direction: 'above' },
+    { metric: 'inp', warningThreshold: 200, criticalThreshold: 500, direction: 'above' },
+    { metric: 'cls', warningThreshold: 0.1, criticalThreshold: 0.25, direction: 'above' },
+    { metric: 'fcp', warningThreshold: 1800, criticalThreshold: 3000, direction: 'above' },
+    { metric: 'ttfb', warningThreshold: 800, criticalThreshold: 1800, direction: 'above' },
+    // Conversion (lower is worse)
+    { metric: 'cvr', warningThreshold: 0.02, criticalThreshold: 0.01, direction: 'below' },
+    // Bounce (higher is worse)
+    { metric: 'bounce_rate', warningThreshold: 0.5, criticalThreshold: 0.7, direction: 'above' },
+];
+export const DEFAULT_ALERT_CONFIG = {
+    thresholds: DEFAULT_THRESHOLDS,
+    enableRegressionDetection: true,
+    regressionThreshold: 0.1, // 10% change
+    enableAnomalyDetection: true,
+    anomalyStdDevThreshold: 2,
+};
+// =============================================================================
+// ALERTING FUNCTIONS
+// =============================================================================
+/**
+ * Check sessions against thresholds and generate alerts.
+ */
+export function checkThresholds(sessions, config = DEFAULT_ALERT_CONFIG) {
+    const alerts = [];
+    const now = new Date().toISOString();
+    // Calculate current metrics
+    const metrics = calculateCurrentMetrics(sessions);
+    for (const threshold of config.thresholds) {
+        const value = metrics[threshold.metric];
+        if (value === null)
+            continue;
+        const exceedsCritical = threshold.direction === 'above'
+            ? value > threshold.criticalThreshold
+            : value < threshold.criticalThreshold;
+        const exceedsWarning = threshold.direction === 'above'
+            ? value > threshold.warningThreshold
+            : value < threshold.warningThreshold;
+        if (exceedsCritical) {
+            alerts.push({
+                id: `threshold-${threshold.metric}-critical-${Date.now()}`,
+                type: 'threshold',
+                severity: 'critical',
+                metric: threshold.metric,
+                currentValue: value,
+                threshold: threshold.criticalThreshold,
+                message: `${threshold.metric.toUpperCase()} is critical: ${formatValue(threshold.metric, value)} (threshold: ${formatValue(threshold.metric, threshold.criticalThreshold)})`,
+                timestamp: now,
+                context: { sessions: sessions.length },
+            });
+        }
+        else if (exceedsWarning) {
+            alerts.push({
+                id: `threshold-${threshold.metric}-warning-${Date.now()}`,
+                type: 'threshold',
+                severity: 'warning',
+                metric: threshold.metric,
+                currentValue: value,
+                threshold: threshold.warningThreshold,
+                message: `${threshold.metric.toUpperCase()} needs attention: ${formatValue(threshold.metric, value)} (threshold: ${formatValue(threshold.metric, threshold.warningThreshold)})`,
+                timestamp: now,
+                context: { sessions: sessions.length },
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    return alerts;
+}
+/**
+ * Detect regressions compared to baseline.
+ */
+export function detectRegressions(currentSessions, baselineSessions, config = DEFAULT_ALERT_CONFIG) {
+    if (!config.enableRegressionDetection)
+        return [];
+    const alerts = [];
+    const now = new Date().toISOString();
+    const currentMetrics = calculateCurrentMetrics(currentSessions);
+    const baselineMetrics = calculateCurrentMetrics(baselineSessions);
+    const metricsToCheck = [
+        { key: 'lcp', higherIsWorse: true },
+        { key: 'inp', higherIsWorse: true },
+        { key: 'cls', higherIsWorse: true },
+        { key: 'cvr', higherIsWorse: false },
+        { key: 'bounce_rate', higherIsWorse: true },
+    ];
+    for (const { key, higherIsWorse } of metricsToCheck) {
+        const current = currentMetrics[key];
+        const baseline = baselineMetrics[key];
+        if (current === null || baseline === null || baseline === 0)
+            continue;
+        const change = (current - baseline) / baseline;
+        const isRegression = higherIsWorse
+            ? change > config.regressionThreshold
+            : change < -config.regressionThreshold;
+        if (isRegression) {
+            const severity = Math.abs(change) > config.regressionThreshold * 2
+                ? 'critical'
+                : 'warning';
+            alerts.push({
+                id: `regression-${key}-${Date.now()}`,
+                type: 'regression',
+                severity,
+                metric: key,
+                currentValue: current,
+                threshold: baseline,
+                message: `${key.toUpperCase()} regressed ${(Math.abs(change) * 100).toFixed(1)}%: ${formatValue(key, baseline)} → ${formatValue(key, current)}`,
+                timestamp: now,
+                context: {
+                    baseline,
+                    change: change * 100,
+                    baselineSessions: baselineSessions.length,
+                    currentSessions: currentSessions.length,
+                },
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    return alerts;
+}
+/**
+ * Detect anomalies using statistical methods.
+ */
+export function detectAnomalies(sessions, historicalMeans, config = DEFAULT_ALERT_CONFIG) {
+    if (!config.enableAnomalyDetection)
+        return [];
+    const alerts = [];
+    const now = new Date().toISOString();
+    const currentMetrics = calculateCurrentMetrics(sessions);
+    for (const [metric, stats] of Object.entries(historicalMeans)) {
+        const current = currentMetrics[metric];
+        if (current === null || stats.stdDev === 0)
+            continue;
+        const zScore = (current - stats.mean) / stats.stdDev;
+        if (Math.abs(zScore) > config.anomalyStdDevThreshold) {
+            const severity = Math.abs(zScore) > config.anomalyStdDevThreshold * 1.5
+                ? 'critical'
+                : 'warning';
+            const direction = zScore > 0 ? 'above' : 'below';
+            alerts.push({
+                id: `anomaly-${metric}-${Date.now()}`,
+                type: 'anomaly',
+                severity,
+                metric,
+                currentValue: current,
+                threshold: stats.mean,
+                message: `${metric.toUpperCase()} anomaly detected: ${formatValue(metric, current)} is ${Math.abs(zScore).toFixed(1)} std devs ${direction} mean`,
+                timestamp: now,
+                context: {
+                    mean: stats.mean,
+                    stdDev: stats.stdDev,
+                    zScore,
+                },
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    return alerts;
+}
+/**
+ * Check for opportunities (positive alerts).
+ */
+export function detectOpportunities(sessions) {
+    const alerts = [];
+    const now = new Date().toISOString();
+    // Check if significant portion of sessions are slow
+    const lcpValues = sessions.map(s => s.lcp_ms).filter((v) => v !== null);
+    if (lcpValues.length >= 100) {
+        const slowSessions = lcpValues.filter(v => v > 2500).length;
+        const slowPercent = slowSessions / lcpValues.length;
+        if (slowPercent > 0.3) {
+            // Estimate revenue opportunity
+            const goodSessions = sessions.filter(s => s.lcp_ms !== null && s.lcp_ms <= 2500);
+            const poorSessions = sessions.filter(s => s.lcp_ms !== null && s.lcp_ms > 2500);
+            if (goodSessions.length >= 50 && poorSessions.length >= 50) {
+                const goodCvr = goodSessions.filter(s => s.has_purchase).length / goodSessions.length;
+                const poorCvr = poorSessions.filter(s => s.has_purchase).length / poorSessions.length;
+                if (goodCvr > poorCvr) {
+                    const potentialLift = (goodCvr - poorCvr) * slowPercent;
+                    alerts.push({
+                        id: `opportunity-lcp-${Date.now()}`,
+                        type: 'opportunity',
+                        severity: 'info',
+                        metric: 'lcp',
+                        currentValue: slowPercent,
+                        threshold: 0.3,
+                        message: `Performance opportunity: ${(slowPercent * 100).toFixed(0)}% of sessions have slow LCP. Potential ${(potentialLift * 100).toFixed(2)}% CVR lift.`,
+                        timestamp: now,
+                        context: {
+                            slowSessions,
+                            goodCvr,
+                            poorCvr,
+                            potentialLift,
+                        },
+                    });
+                }
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    return alerts;
+}
+/**
+ * Generate comprehensive alert report.
+ */
+export function generateAlertReport(sessions, config = DEFAULT_ALERT_CONFIG, baseline) {
+    const alerts = [];
+    // Threshold alerts
+    alerts.push(...checkThresholds(sessions, config));
+    // Regression alerts
+    if (baseline) {
+        alerts.push(...detectRegressions(sessions, baseline, config));
+    }
+    // Opportunity alerts
+    alerts.push(...detectOpportunities(sessions));
+    // Sort by severity
+    const severityOrder = {
+        critical: 0,
+        warning: 1,
+        info: 2,
+    };
+    alerts.sort((a, b) => severityOrder[a.severity] - severityOrder[b.severity]);
+    // Summary
+    const summary = {
+        critical: alerts.filter(a => a.severity === 'critical').length,
+        warning: alerts.filter(a => a.severity === 'warning').length,
+        info: alerts.filter(a => a.severity === 'info').length,
+        total: alerts.length,
+    };
+    // Metric status
+    const currentMetrics = calculateCurrentMetrics(sessions);
+    const metrics = [];
+    for (const threshold of config.thresholds) {
+        const value = currentMetrics[threshold.metric];
+        if (value === null)
+            continue;
+        let status = 'good';
+        if (threshold.direction === 'above') {
+            if (value > threshold.criticalThreshold)
+                status = 'critical';
+            else if (value > threshold.warningThreshold)
+                status = 'warning';
+        }
+        else {
+            if (value < threshold.criticalThreshold)
+                status = 'critical';
+            else if (value < threshold.warningThreshold)
+                status = 'warning';
+        }
+        metrics.push({
+            metric: threshold.metric,
+            currentValue: value,
+            trend: 'stable', // Would need historical data for real trend
+            status,
+        });
+    }
+    return {
+        alerts,
+        summary,
+        metrics,
+    };
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// REPORT GENERATION
+// =============================================================================
+/**
+ * Generate markdown report for alerts.
+ */
+export function generateAlertMarkdown(report) {
+    const lines = [];
+    lines.push('## Alert Report');
+    lines.push('');
+    // Summary
+    if (report.summary.critical > 0) {
+        lines.push(`### 🚨 ${report.summary.critical} Critical Alerts`);
+    }
+    else if (report.summary.warning > 0) {
+        lines.push(`### ⚠️ ${report.summary.warning} Warnings`);
+    }
+    else {
+        lines.push('### ✅ All Clear');
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // Metric status
+    lines.push('### Metric Status');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('| Metric | Value | Status |');
+    lines.push('|--------|-------|--------|');
+    for (const metric of report.metrics) {
+        const icon = metric.status === 'good' ? '✅' :
+            metric.status === 'warning' ? '⚠️' : '🚨';
+        lines.push(`| ${metric.metric.toUpperCase()} | ${formatValue(metric.metric, metric.currentValue)} | ${icon} ${metric.status} |`);
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // Active alerts
+    if (report.alerts.length > 0) {
+        lines.push('### Active Alerts');
+        lines.push('');
+        for (const alert of report.alerts) {
+            const icon = alert.severity === 'critical' ? '🚨' :
+                alert.severity === 'warning' ? '⚠️' : 'ℹ️';
+            lines.push(`- ${icon} **[${alert.type.toUpperCase()}]** ${alert.message}`);
+        }
+        lines.push('');
+    }
+    return lines.join('\n');
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// HELPERS
+// =============================================================================
+function calculateCurrentMetrics(sessions) {
+    const lcpValues = sessions.map(s => s.lcp_ms).filter((v) => v !== null);
+    const inpValues = sessions.map(s => s.inp_ms).filter((v) => v !== null);
+    const clsValues = sessions.map(s => s.cls).filter((v) => v !== null);
+    const fcpValues = sessions.map(s => s.fcp_ms).filter((v) => v !== null);
+    const ttfbValues = sessions.map(s => s.ttfb_ms).filter((v) => v !== null);
+    const conversions = sessions.filter(s => s.has_purchase).length;
+    const bounces = sessions.filter(s => s.bounced).length;
+    return {
+        lcp: lcpValues.length > 0 ? percentile(lcpValues, 75) : null,
+        inp: inpValues.length > 0 ? percentile(inpValues, 75) : null,
+        cls: clsValues.length > 0 ? percentile(clsValues, 75) : null,
+        fcp: fcpValues.length > 0 ? percentile(fcpValues, 75) : null,
+        ttfb: ttfbValues.length > 0 ? percentile(ttfbValues, 75) : null,
+        cvr: sessions.length > 0 ? conversions / sessions.length : null,
+        bounce_rate: sessions.length > 0 ? bounces / sessions.length : null,
+    };
+}
+function percentile(values, p) {
+    const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+    const index = Math.ceil((p / 100) * sorted.length) - 1;
+    return sorted[Math.max(0, index)];
+}
+function formatValue(metric, value) {
+    switch (metric) {
+        case 'lcp':
+        case 'inp':
+        case 'fcp':
+        case 'ttfb':
+            return `${value.toFixed(0)}ms`;
+        case 'cls':
+            return value.toFixed(3);
+        case 'cvr':
+        case 'bounce_rate':
+            return `${(value * 100).toFixed(2)}%`;
+        default:
+            return value.toFixed(2);
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=alerting.js.map

package/dist/empirical/alerting.js.map

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package/dist/empirical/attribution.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+/**
+ * Attribution Models
+ *
+ * First-touch vs last-touch session attribution for understanding
+ * how performance at different touchpoints affects conversions.
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+import type { SessionData } from './datadog-session-query.js';
+export type AttributionModel = 'first_touch' | 'last_touch' | 'linear' | 'position_based';
+export interface TouchpointStats {
+    /** Touchpoint identifier (e.g., page type, traffic source) */
+    touchpoint: string;
+    /** Total sessions at this touchpoint */
+    sessions: number;
+    /** First-touch attributions */
+    firstTouchConversions: number;
+    /** Last-touch attributions */
+    lastTouchConversions: number;
+    /** Linear attributions (partial credit) */
+    linearConversions: number;
+    /** Position-based attributions (40/20/40 model) */
+    positionBasedConversions: number;
+    /** Average performance at this touchpoint */
+    avgLcp: number | null;
+    /** Performance impact score */
+    performanceImpactScore: number;
+}
+export interface UserJourney {
+    userId: string;
+    touchpoints: Array<{
+        timestamp: string;
+        pageType: string;
+        trafficSource: string;
+        lcp: number | null;
+        converted: boolean;
+        value: number;
+    }>;
+    converted: boolean;
+    totalValue: number;
+}
+export interface AttributionReport {
+    model: AttributionModel;
+    touchpointStats: TouchpointStats[];
+    insights: string[];
+    recommendations: string[];
+    performanceInfluence: {
+        /** Correlation between first-touch performance and conversion */
+        firstTouchCorrelation: number;
+        /** Correlation between last-touch performance and conversion */
+        lastTouchCorrelation: number;
+        /** Which touchpoint's performance matters most? */
+        criticalTouchpoint: string;
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Build user journeys from session data.
+ */
+export declare function buildUserJourneys(sessions: SessionData[]): UserJourney[];
+/**
+ * Calculate attribution for all touchpoints.
+ */
+export declare function calculateAttribution(journeys: UserJourney[], groupBy?: 'pageType' | 'trafficSource'): TouchpointStats[];
+/**
+ * Analyze performance impact at different journey stages.
+ */
+export declare function analyzePerformanceInfluence(journeys: UserJourney[]): {
+    firstTouchCorrelation: number;
+    lastTouchCorrelation: number;
+    criticalTouchpoint: string;
+};
+/**
+ * Generate full attribution report.
+ */
+export declare function generateAttributionReport(sessions: SessionData[], model?: AttributionModel, groupBy?: 'pageType' | 'trafficSource'): AttributionReport;
+/**
+ * Generate markdown report for attribution analysis.
+ */
+export declare function generateAttributionMarkdown(report: AttributionReport): string;
+//# sourceMappingURL=attribution.d.ts.map

package/dist/empirical/attribution.d.ts.map

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