kanmi-perf-revenue 1.0.0 → 1.2.0

package/dist/empirical/report.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/empirical/roi-calculator.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+/**
+ * ROI Calculator
+ *
+ * Calculate engineering effort vs expected revenue gain
+ * for performance improvements.
+ *
+ * Key questions answered:
+ * - Is this performance fix worth the engineering investment?
+ * - What's the break-even point?
+ * - Which improvements have the best ROI?
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+import type { SessionData } from './datadog-session-query.js';
+import type { OpportunityReport } from './opportunity-calculator.js';
+export interface EngineeringCost {
+    /** Hours of engineering effort */
+    engineeringHours: number;
+    /** Hourly rate (loaded cost) */
+    hourlyRate: number;
+    /** Additional infrastructure costs */
+    infrastructureCost: number;
+    /** Opportunity cost (what else could be built) */
+    opportunityCostMultiplier: number;
+}
+export interface PerformanceImprovement {
+    /** Metric being improved */
+    metric: 'lcp' | 'inp' | 'cls' | 'fcp' | 'ttfb';
+    /** Current value (e.g., p75 LCP in ms) */
+    currentValue: number;
+    /** Target value after improvement */
+    targetValue: number;
+    /** Description of the improvement */
+    description: string;
+}
+export interface ROIAnalysis {
+    improvement: PerformanceImprovement;
+    cost: EngineeringCost;
+    benefit: {
+        /** Estimated monthly revenue increase */
+        monthlyRevenue: number;
+        /** Estimated annual revenue increase */
+        annualRevenue: number;
+        /** Sessions affected per month */
+        sessionsAffected: number;
+        /** Expected CVR lift */
+        expectedCvrLift: number;
+    };
+    roi: {
+        /** Total cost of implementation */
+        totalCost: number;
+        /** Net present value (12 month) */
+        npv12Month: number;
+        /** Break-even in days */
+        breakEvenDays: number | null;
+        /** ROI percentage (12 month) */
+        roiPercent: number;
+        /** Is it worth doing? */
+        recommendation: 'strong_yes' | 'yes' | 'marginal' | 'no';
+        /** Explanation */
+        rationale: string;
+    };
+}
+export interface ROIComparison {
+    analyses: ROIAnalysis[];
+    ranked: ROIAnalysis[];
+    bestBet: ROIAnalysis | null;
+    summary: string;
+}
+export declare const DEFAULT_COSTS: EngineeringCost;
+export declare const IMPROVEMENT_TEMPLATES: Record<string, Partial<EngineeringCost>>;
+/**
+ * Estimate CVR lift from performance improvement.
+ * Uses empirical data when available, falls back to industry benchmarks.
+ */
+export declare function estimateCvrLift(improvement: PerformanceImprovement, sessions: SessionData[]): number;
+/**
+ * Calculate ROI for a single improvement.
+ */
+export declare function calculateROI(improvement: PerformanceImprovement, sessions: SessionData[], cost: EngineeringCost, config?: {
+    monthlySessionsMultiplier?: number;
+    averageOrderValue?: number;
+    discountRate?: number;
+}): ROIAnalysis;
+/**
+ * Compare multiple improvement opportunities.
+ */
+export declare function compareROI(improvements: PerformanceImprovement[], sessions: SessionData[], costs: EngineeringCost[], config?: {
+    monthlySessionsMultiplier?: number;
+    averageOrderValue?: number;
+}): ROIComparison;
+/**
+ * Quick ROI estimate from opportunity report.
+ */
+export declare function estimateROIFromOpportunity(opportunity: OpportunityReport, cost?: EngineeringCost): ROIAnalysis;
+/**
+ * Generate markdown report for ROI analysis.
+ */
+export declare function generateROIMarkdown(analysis: ROIAnalysis): string;
+/**
+ * Generate comparison markdown.
+ */
+export declare function generateROIComparisonMarkdown(comparison: ROIComparison): string;
+//# sourceMappingURL=roi-calculator.d.ts.map

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package/dist/empirical/roi-calculator.js

@@ -0,0 +1,403 @@
+/**
+ * ROI Calculator
+ *
+ * Calculate engineering effort vs expected revenue gain
+ * for performance improvements.
+ *
+ * Key questions answered:
+ * - Is this performance fix worth the engineering investment?
+ * - What's the break-even point?
+ * - Which improvements have the best ROI?
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+// =============================================================================
+// DEFAULT COSTS
+// =============================================================================
+export const DEFAULT_COSTS = {
+    engineeringHours: 40, // 1 week
+    hourlyRate: 150, // $150/hour loaded cost
+    infrastructureCost: 0,
+    opportunityCostMultiplier: 1.5,
+};
+export const IMPROVEMENT_TEMPLATES = {
+    image_optimization: { engineeringHours: 16 },
+    cdn_setup: { engineeringHours: 24, infrastructureCost: 500 },
+    code_splitting: { engineeringHours: 40 },
+    server_upgrade: { engineeringHours: 8, infrastructureCost: 2000 },
+    lazy_loading: { engineeringHours: 16 },
+    caching_layer: { engineeringHours: 32, infrastructureCost: 200 },
+    database_optimization: { engineeringHours: 40 },
+    third_party_audit: { engineeringHours: 24 },
+};
+// =============================================================================
+// ROI CALCULATION
+// =============================================================================
+/**
+ * Estimate CVR lift from performance improvement.
+ * Uses empirical data when available, falls back to industry benchmarks.
+ */
+export function estimateCvrLift(improvement, sessions) {
+    // Filter sessions with this metric
+    const relevantSessions = sessions.filter((s) => {
+        switch (improvement.metric) {
+            case 'lcp':
+                return s.lcp_ms !== null;
+            case 'inp':
+                return s.inp_ms !== null;
+            case 'cls':
+                return s.cls !== null;
+            case 'fcp':
+                return s.fcp_ms !== null;
+            case 'ttfb':
+                return s.ttfb_ms !== null;
+            default:
+                return false;
+        }
+    });
+    if (relevantSessions.length < 100) {
+        // Not enough data, use industry benchmarks
+        return estimateCvrLiftFromBenchmarks(improvement);
+    }
+    // Empirical estimation based on current data
+    const getValue = (s) => {
+        switch (improvement.metric) {
+            case 'lcp':
+                return s.lcp_ms;
+            case 'inp':
+                return s.inp_ms;
+            case 'cls':
+                return s.cls;
+            case 'fcp':
+                return s.fcp_ms;
+            case 'ttfb':
+                return s.ttfb_ms;
+            default:
+                return null;
+        }
+    };
+    // Sessions currently in the "to be improved" range
+    const affectedSessions = relevantSessions.filter((s) => {
+        const value = getValue(s);
+        return value !== null && value > improvement.targetValue && value <= improvement.currentValue;
+    });
+    // Sessions already at target level
+    const targetSessions = relevantSessions.filter((s) => {
+        const value = getValue(s);
+        return value !== null && value <= improvement.targetValue;
+    });
+    if (affectedSessions.length < 50 || targetSessions.length < 50) {
+        return estimateCvrLiftFromBenchmarks(improvement);
+    }
+    // Calculate actual CVR difference
+    const affectedCvr = affectedSessions.filter((s) => s.has_purchase).length / affectedSessions.length;
+    const targetCvr = targetSessions.filter((s) => s.has_purchase).length / targetSessions.length;
+    // Expected lift if affected sessions move to target performance
+    const absoluteLift = targetCvr - affectedCvr;
+    // Apply a discount factor (we won't capture 100% of the theoretical lift)
+    return absoluteLift * 0.7;
+}
+/**
+ * Industry benchmark-based CVR lift estimation.
+ */
+function estimateCvrLiftFromBenchmarks(improvement) {
+    const delta = improvement.currentValue - improvement.targetValue;
+    switch (improvement.metric) {
+        case 'lcp':
+            // ~0.3% CVR per 100ms improvement
+            return (delta / 100) * 0.003;
+        case 'inp':
+            // ~0.2% CVR per 50ms improvement
+            return (delta / 50) * 0.002;
+        case 'cls':
+            // ~0.5% CVR per 0.1 CLS improvement
+            return (delta / 0.1) * 0.005;
+        case 'fcp':
+            // ~0.2% CVR per 100ms improvement
+            return (delta / 100) * 0.002;
+        case 'ttfb':
+            // ~0.15% CVR per 100ms improvement
+            return (delta / 100) * 0.0015;
+        default:
+            return 0;
+    }
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate ROI for a single improvement.
+ */
+export function calculateROI(improvement, sessions, cost, config = {}) {
+    const monthlyMultiplier = config.monthlySessionsMultiplier || 2; // Assume data is ~2 weeks
+    const aov = config.averageOrderValue || calculateAOV(sessions);
+    const discountRate = config.discountRate || 0.1; // 10% annual discount rate
+    // Calculate costs
+    const laborCost = cost.engineeringHours * cost.hourlyRate;
+    const totalCost = (laborCost + cost.infrastructureCost) * cost.opportunityCostMultiplier;
+    // Calculate benefit
+    const getValue = (s) => {
+        switch (improvement.metric) {
+            case 'lcp':
+                return s.lcp_ms;
+            case 'inp':
+                return s.inp_ms;
+            case 'cls':
+                return s.cls;
+            case 'fcp':
+                return s.fcp_ms;
+            case 'ttfb':
+                return s.ttfb_ms;
+            default:
+                return null;
+        }
+    };
+    // Count sessions that would be affected
+    const affectedSessions = sessions.filter((s) => {
+        const value = getValue(s);
+        return value !== null && value > improvement.targetValue;
+    });
+    const sessionsAffectedMonthly = affectedSessions.length * monthlyMultiplier;
+    const expectedCvrLift = estimateCvrLift(improvement, sessions);
+    // Calculate revenue
+    const additionalConversions = sessionsAffectedMonthly * expectedCvrLift;
+    const monthlyRevenue = additionalConversions * aov;
+    const annualRevenue = monthlyRevenue * 12;
+    // Calculate NPV (12 month)
+    const monthlyDiscountRate = discountRate / 12;
+    let npv12Month = -totalCost;
+    for (let month = 1; month <= 12; month++) {
+        npv12Month += monthlyRevenue / Math.pow(1 + monthlyDiscountRate, month);
+    }
+    // Break-even
+    const breakEvenDays = monthlyRevenue > 0 ? Math.ceil((totalCost / monthlyRevenue) * 30) : null;
+    // ROI percentage
+    const roiPercent = totalCost > 0 ? ((annualRevenue - totalCost) / totalCost) * 100 : 0;
+    // Recommendation
+    let recommendation;
+    let rationale;
+    if (roiPercent >= 300 && breakEvenDays !== null && breakEvenDays <= 30) {
+        recommendation = 'strong_yes';
+        rationale = `Excellent ROI of ${roiPercent.toFixed(0)}% with ${breakEvenDays} day payback`;
+    }
+    else if (roiPercent >= 100 && breakEvenDays !== null && breakEvenDays <= 90) {
+        recommendation = 'yes';
+        rationale = `Good ROI of ${roiPercent.toFixed(0)}% with ${breakEvenDays} day payback`;
+    }
+    else if (roiPercent >= 50) {
+        recommendation = 'marginal';
+        rationale = `Marginal ROI of ${roiPercent.toFixed(0)}% - consider prioritizing higher-impact work`;
+    }
+    else {
+        recommendation = 'no';
+        rationale = `Low ROI of ${roiPercent.toFixed(0)}% - not recommended without additional benefits`;
+    }
+    return {
+        improvement,
+        cost,
+        benefit: {
+            monthlyRevenue,
+            annualRevenue,
+            sessionsAffected: sessionsAffectedMonthly,
+            expectedCvrLift,
+        },
+        roi: {
+            totalCost,
+            npv12Month,
+            breakEvenDays,
+            roiPercent,
+            recommendation,
+            rationale,
+        },
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Compare multiple improvement opportunities.
+ */
+export function compareROI(improvements, sessions, costs, config = {}) {
+    const analyses = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < improvements.length; i++) {
+        const analysis = calculateROI(improvements[i], sessions, costs[i] || DEFAULT_COSTS, config);
+        analyses.push(analysis);
+    }
+    // Rank by ROI
+    const ranked = [...analyses].sort((a, b) => b.roi.roiPercent - a.roi.roiPercent);
+    // Best bet
+    const bestBet = ranked.find((a) => a.roi.recommendation === 'strong_yes' || a.roi.recommendation === 'yes') || null;
+    // Summary
+    const strongYes = analyses.filter((a) => a.roi.recommendation === 'strong_yes');
+    const yes = analyses.filter((a) => a.roi.recommendation === 'yes');
+    const no = analyses.filter((a) => a.roi.recommendation === 'no');
+    let summary = `${analyses.length} improvements analyzed: `;
+    if (strongYes.length > 0) {
+        summary += `${strongYes.length} strongly recommended, `;
+    }
+    if (yes.length > 0) {
+        summary += `${yes.length} recommended, `;
+    }
+    if (no.length > 0) {
+        summary += `${no.length} not recommended`;
+    }
+    return { analyses, ranked, bestBet, summary };
+}
+/**
+ * Quick ROI estimate from opportunity report.
+ */
+export function estimateROIFromOpportunity(opportunity, cost = DEFAULT_COSTS) {
+    // Use the first scenario (usually the recommended target)
+    const scenario = opportunity.scenarios[0];
+    const improvement = {
+        metric: opportunity.metric,
+        currentValue: scenario?.target_ms ? scenario.target_ms * 1.5 : 0, // Approximate current
+        targetValue: scenario?.target_ms || opportunity.recommendation.target_ms,
+        description: opportunity.recommendation.summary,
+    };
+    // Total cost
+    const laborCost = cost.engineeringHours * cost.hourlyRate;
+    const totalCost = (laborCost + cost.infrastructureCost) * cost.opportunityCostMultiplier;
+    // Use opportunity's calculated revenue from recommendation
+    const monthlyRevenue = opportunity.recommendation.monthly_opportunity;
+    const annualRevenue = monthlyRevenue * 12;
+    // NPV
+    const discountRate = 0.1;
+    const monthlyDiscountRate = discountRate / 12;
+    let npv12Month = -totalCost;
+    for (let month = 1; month <= 12; month++) {
+        npv12Month += monthlyRevenue / Math.pow(1 + monthlyDiscountRate, month);
+    }
+    const breakEvenDays = monthlyRevenue > 0 ? Math.ceil((totalCost / monthlyRevenue) * 30) : null;
+    const roiPercent = totalCost > 0 ? ((annualRevenue - totalCost) / totalCost) * 100 : 0;
+    let recommendation;
+    let rationale;
+    if (roiPercent >= 300 && breakEvenDays !== null && breakEvenDays <= 30) {
+        recommendation = 'strong_yes';
+        rationale = `Excellent ROI of ${roiPercent.toFixed(0)}% with ${breakEvenDays} day payback`;
+    }
+    else if (roiPercent >= 100 && breakEvenDays !== null && breakEvenDays <= 90) {
+        recommendation = 'yes';
+        rationale = `Good ROI of ${roiPercent.toFixed(0)}% with ${breakEvenDays} day payback`;
+    }
+    else if (roiPercent >= 50) {
+        recommendation = 'marginal';
+        rationale = `Marginal ROI of ${roiPercent.toFixed(0)}% - consider prioritizing higher-impact work`;
+    }
+    else {
+        recommendation = 'no';
+        rationale = `Low ROI of ${roiPercent.toFixed(0)}% - not recommended without additional benefits`;
+    }
+    return {
+        improvement,
+        cost,
+        benefit: {
+            monthlyRevenue,
+            annualRevenue,
+            sessionsAffected: scenario?.slow_sessions || 0,
+            expectedCvrLift: scenario?.cvr_delta || 0,
+        },
+        roi: {
+            totalCost,
+            npv12Month,
+            breakEvenDays,
+            roiPercent,
+            recommendation,
+            rationale,
+        },
+    };
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// REPORT GENERATION
+// =============================================================================
+/**
+ * Generate markdown report for ROI analysis.
+ */
+export function generateROIMarkdown(analysis) {
+    const lines = [];
+    lines.push('## ROI Analysis');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(`### ${analysis.improvement.description}`);
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(`**${analysis.improvement.metric.toUpperCase()}**: ${analysis.improvement.currentValue} → ${analysis.improvement.targetValue}`);
+    lines.push('');
+    // Cost breakdown
+    lines.push('### Cost');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(`| Item | Amount |`);
+    lines.push(`|------|--------|`);
+    lines.push(`| Engineering Hours | ${analysis.cost.engineeringHours}h |`);
+    lines.push(`| Labor Cost | $${(analysis.cost.engineeringHours * analysis.cost.hourlyRate).toLocaleString()} |`);
+    lines.push(`| Infrastructure | $${analysis.cost.infrastructureCost.toLocaleString()} |`);
+    lines.push(`| **Total Cost** | **$${analysis.roi.totalCost.toLocaleString()}** |`);
+    lines.push('');
+    // Benefit
+    lines.push('### Expected Benefit');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(`| Metric | Value |`);
+    lines.push(`|--------|-------|`);
+    lines.push(`| Sessions Affected | ${analysis.benefit.sessionsAffected.toLocaleString()}/month |`);
+    lines.push(`| Expected CVR Lift | ${(analysis.benefit.expectedCvrLift * 100).toFixed(2)}% |`);
+    lines.push(`| Monthly Revenue | $${analysis.benefit.monthlyRevenue.toLocaleString()} |`);
+    lines.push(`| Annual Revenue | $${analysis.benefit.annualRevenue.toLocaleString()} |`);
+    lines.push('');
+    // ROI
+    lines.push('### ROI Summary');
+    lines.push('');
+    const recommendationEmoji = analysis.roi.recommendation === 'strong_yes'
+        ? '🚀'
+        : analysis.roi.recommendation === 'yes'
+            ? '✅'
+            : analysis.roi.recommendation === 'marginal'
+                ? '⚠️'
+                : '❌';
+    lines.push(`| Metric | Value |`);
+    lines.push(`|--------|-------|`);
+    lines.push(`| 12-Month ROI | ${analysis.roi.roiPercent.toFixed(0)}% |`);
+    lines.push(`| NPV (12 month) | $${analysis.roi.npv12Month.toLocaleString()} |`);
+    lines.push(`| Break-even | ${analysis.roi.breakEvenDays ? `${analysis.roi.breakEvenDays} days` : 'N/A'} |`);
+    lines.push(`| Recommendation | ${recommendationEmoji} ${analysis.roi.recommendation.replace('_', ' ').toUpperCase()} |`);
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(`**Rationale**: ${analysis.roi.rationale}`);
+    lines.push('');
+    return lines.join('\n');
+}
+/**
+ * Generate comparison markdown.
+ */
+export function generateROIComparisonMarkdown(comparison) {
+    const lines = [];
+    lines.push('## ROI Comparison');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(comparison.summary);
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('### Ranked Opportunities');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('| Improvement | Cost | Monthly Rev | ROI | Rec |');
+    lines.push('|-------------|------|-------------|-----|-----|');
+    for (const analysis of comparison.ranked) {
+        const emoji = analysis.roi.recommendation === 'strong_yes'
+            ? '🚀'
+            : analysis.roi.recommendation === 'yes'
+                ? '✅'
+                : analysis.roi.recommendation === 'marginal'
+                    ? '⚠️'
+                    : '❌';
+        lines.push(`| ${analysis.improvement.description.slice(0, 30)} | $${analysis.roi.totalCost.toLocaleString()} | $${analysis.benefit.monthlyRevenue.toLocaleString()} | ${analysis.roi.roiPercent.toFixed(0)}% | ${emoji} |`);
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    if (comparison.bestBet) {
+        lines.push('### Best Bet');
+        lines.push('');
+        lines.push(`**${comparison.bestBet.improvement.description}**`);
+        lines.push('');
+        lines.push(comparison.bestBet.roi.rationale);
+        lines.push('');
+    }
+    return lines.join('\n');
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// HELPERS
+// =============================================================================
+function calculateAOV(sessions) {
+    const purchaseSessions = sessions.filter((s) => s.has_purchase && s.purchase_value > 0);
+    if (purchaseSessions.length === 0)
+        return 100; // Default $100
+    const totalRevenue = purchaseSessions.reduce((sum, s) => sum + s.purchase_value, 0);
+    return totalRevenue / purchaseSessions.length;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=roi-calculator.js.map

package/dist/empirical/roi-calculator.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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