kanmi-perf-revenue 1.0.0 → 1.2.0

package/dist/empirical/seasonality.d.ts

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+/**
+ * Seasonality Analysis
+ *
+ * Analyzes time-based patterns in performance and conversion data.
+ * Accounts for day-of-week, hour-of-day, and weekly trends.
+ *
+ * Key insights:
+ * - When does performance degrade (peak hours)?
+ * - When are conversion rates highest/lowest?
+ * - How does performance-CVR relationship change by time?
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+import type { SessionData } from './datadog-session-query.js';
+export interface HourlyPattern {
+    hour: number;
+    sessions: number;
+    conversions: number;
+    cvr: number;
+    avgLcp: number | null;
+    avgInp: number | null;
+    /** Index: 0=lowest CVR hour, 100=highest CVR hour */
+    cvrIndex: number;
+}
+export interface DayOfWeekPattern {
+    day: number;
+    dayName: string;
+    sessions: number;
+    conversions: number;
+    cvr: number;
+    avgLcp: number | null;
+    avgInp: number | null;
+    cvrIndex: number;
+}
+export interface WeeklyTrend {
+    weekNumber: number;
+    weekStart: string;
+    sessions: number;
+    conversions: number;
+    cvr: number;
+    avgLcp: number | null;
+    trend: 'improving' | 'declining' | 'stable';
+}
+export interface SeasonalityReport {
+    hourly: HourlyPattern[];
+    dayOfWeek: DayOfWeekPattern[];
+    weekly: WeeklyTrend[];
+    insights: SeasonalInsight[];
+    peakHours: number[];
+    lowHours: number[];
+    bestDays: string[];
+    worstDays: string[];
+    performanceDegradationHours: number[];
+}
+export interface SeasonalInsight {
+    type: 'hourly' | 'daily' | 'weekly' | 'performance';
+    severity: 'info' | 'warning' | 'opportunity';
+    message: string;
+}
+/**
+ * Analyze hourly patterns.
+ */
+export declare function analyzeHourlyPatterns(sessions: SessionData[]): HourlyPattern[];
+/**
+ * Analyze day-of-week patterns.
+ */
+export declare function analyzeDayOfWeekPatterns(sessions: SessionData[]): DayOfWeekPattern[];
+/**
+ * Analyze weekly trends.
+ */
+export declare function analyzeWeeklyTrends(sessions: SessionData[]): WeeklyTrend[];
+/**
+ * Generate full seasonality report.
+ */
+export declare function analyzeSeasonality(sessions: SessionData[]): SeasonalityReport;
+/**
+ * Generate markdown report for seasonality analysis.
+ */
+export declare function generateSeasonalityMarkdown(report: SeasonalityReport): string;
+//# sourceMappingURL=seasonality.d.ts.map

package/dist/empirical/seasonality.d.ts.map

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package/dist/empirical/seasonality.js

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+/**
+ * Seasonality Analysis
+ *
+ * Analyzes time-based patterns in performance and conversion data.
+ * Accounts for day-of-week, hour-of-day, and weekly trends.
+ *
+ * Key insights:
+ * - When does performance degrade (peak hours)?
+ * - When are conversion rates highest/lowest?
+ * - How does performance-CVR relationship change by time?
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+import { calculateConfidenceInterval } from './statistics.js';
+// =============================================================================
+// ANALYSIS FUNCTIONS
+// =============================================================================
+const DAY_NAMES = ['Sunday', 'Monday', 'Tuesday', 'Wednesday', 'Thursday', 'Friday', 'Saturday'];
+/**
+ * Analyze hourly patterns.
+ */
+export function analyzeHourlyPatterns(sessions) {
+    const hourlyData = new Map();
+    // Initialize all hours
+    for (let h = 0; h < 24; h++) {
+        hourlyData.set(h, { sessions: [], conversions: 0 });
+    }
+    // Bucket sessions by hour
+    for (const session of sessions) {
+        const hour = session.hour_of_day ?? new Date(session.timestamp || Date.now()).getHours();
+        const data = hourlyData.get(hour);
+        data.sessions.push(session);
+        if (session.has_purchase) {
+            data.conversions++;
+        }
+    }
+    // Calculate patterns
+    const patterns = [];
+    let minCvr = Infinity;
+    let maxCvr = 0;
+    for (let hour = 0; hour < 24; hour++) {
+        const data = hourlyData.get(hour);
+        const sessionCount = data.sessions.length;
+        const cvr = sessionCount > 0 ? data.conversions / sessionCount : 0;
+        const lcpValues = data.sessions.map((s) => s.lcp_ms).filter((v) => v !== null);
+        const inpValues = data.sessions.map((s) => s.inp_ms).filter((v) => v !== null);
+        patterns.push({
+            hour,
+            sessions: sessionCount,
+            conversions: data.conversions,
+            cvr,
+            avgLcp: lcpValues.length > 0 ? lcpValues.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / lcpValues.length : null,
+            avgInp: inpValues.length > 0 ? inpValues.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / inpValues.length : null,
+            cvrIndex: 0, // Will be set below
+        });
+        if (sessionCount >= 10) {
+            minCvr = Math.min(minCvr, cvr);
+            maxCvr = Math.max(maxCvr, cvr);
+        }
+    }
+    // Calculate CVR index (normalize to 0-100)
+    const cvrRange = maxCvr - minCvr;
+    for (const pattern of patterns) {
+        if (pattern.sessions >= 10 && cvrRange > 0) {
+            pattern.cvrIndex = ((pattern.cvr - minCvr) / cvrRange) * 100;
+        }
+    }
+    return patterns;
+}
+/**
+ * Analyze day-of-week patterns.
+ */
+export function analyzeDayOfWeekPatterns(sessions) {
+    const dailyData = new Map();
+    // Initialize all days
+    for (let d = 0; d < 7; d++) {
+        dailyData.set(d, { sessions: [], conversions: 0 });
+    }
+    // Bucket sessions by day
+    for (const session of sessions) {
+        const day = session.day_of_week ?? new Date(session.timestamp || Date.now()).getDay();
+        const data = dailyData.get(day);
+        data.sessions.push(session);
+        if (session.has_purchase) {
+            data.conversions++;
+        }
+    }
+    // Calculate patterns
+    const patterns = [];
+    let minCvr = Infinity;
+    let maxCvr = 0;
+    for (let day = 0; day < 7; day++) {
+        const data = dailyData.get(day);
+        const sessionCount = data.sessions.length;
+        const cvr = sessionCount > 0 ? data.conversions / sessionCount : 0;
+        const lcpValues = data.sessions.map((s) => s.lcp_ms).filter((v) => v !== null);
+        const inpValues = data.sessions.map((s) => s.inp_ms).filter((v) => v !== null);
+        patterns.push({
+            day,
+            dayName: DAY_NAMES[day],
+            sessions: sessionCount,
+            conversions: data.conversions,
+            cvr,
+            avgLcp: lcpValues.length > 0 ? lcpValues.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / lcpValues.length : null,
+            avgInp: inpValues.length > 0 ? inpValues.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / inpValues.length : null,
+            cvrIndex: 0,
+        });
+        if (sessionCount >= 10) {
+            minCvr = Math.min(minCvr, cvr);
+            maxCvr = Math.max(maxCvr, cvr);
+        }
+    }
+    // Calculate CVR index
+    const cvrRange = maxCvr - minCvr;
+    for (const pattern of patterns) {
+        if (pattern.sessions >= 10 && cvrRange > 0) {
+            pattern.cvrIndex = ((pattern.cvr - minCvr) / cvrRange) * 100;
+        }
+    }
+    return patterns;
+}
+/**
+ * Analyze weekly trends.
+ */
+export function analyzeWeeklyTrends(sessions) {
+    // Group by week
+    const weeklyData = new Map();
+    for (const session of sessions) {
+        const date = new Date(session.timestamp || Date.now());
+        const weekStart = getWeekStart(date);
+        const weekKey = weekStart.toISOString().split('T')[0];
+        if (!weeklyData.has(weekKey)) {
+            weeklyData.set(weekKey, { sessions: [], conversions: 0, weekStart });
+        }
+        const data = weeklyData.get(weekKey);
+        data.sessions.push(session);
+        if (session.has_purchase) {
+            data.conversions++;
+        }
+    }
+    // Sort by week
+    const sortedWeeks = Array.from(weeklyData.entries()).sort((a, b) => a[0].localeCompare(b[0]));
+    // Calculate trends
+    const trends = [];
+    let prevCvr = null;
+    for (let i = 0; i < sortedWeeks.length; i++) {
+        const [weekKey, data] = sortedWeeks[i];
+        const sessionCount = data.sessions.length;
+        const cvr = sessionCount > 0 ? data.conversions / sessionCount : 0;
+        const lcpValues = data.sessions.map((s) => s.lcp_ms).filter((v) => v !== null);
+        let trend = 'stable';
+        if (prevCvr !== null) {
+            const change = cvr - prevCvr;
+            if (change > 0.005)
+                trend = 'improving';
+            else if (change < -0.005)
+                trend = 'declining';
+        }
+        trends.push({
+            weekNumber: i + 1,
+            weekStart: weekKey,
+            sessions: sessionCount,
+            conversions: data.conversions,
+            cvr,
+            avgLcp: lcpValues.length > 0 ? lcpValues.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / lcpValues.length : null,
+            trend,
+        });
+        prevCvr = cvr;
+    }
+    return trends;
+}
+/**
+ * Generate full seasonality report.
+ */
+export function analyzeSeasonality(sessions) {
+    const hourly = analyzeHourlyPatterns(sessions);
+    const dayOfWeek = analyzeDayOfWeekPatterns(sessions);
+    const weekly = analyzeWeeklyTrends(sessions);
+    const insights = [];
+    // Find peak and low hours
+    const significantHours = hourly.filter((h) => h.sessions >= 10);
+    const sortedByCvr = [...significantHours].sort((a, b) => b.cvr - a.cvr);
+    const peakHours = sortedByCvr.slice(0, 3).map((h) => h.hour);
+    const lowHours = sortedByCvr.slice(-3).map((h) => h.hour);
+    // Find hours where performance degrades
+    const avgLcp = calculateAverage(hourly.map((h) => h.avgLcp).filter((v) => v !== null));
+    const performanceDegradationHours = hourly
+        .filter((h) => h.avgLcp !== null && h.avgLcp > avgLcp * 1.2)
+        .map((h) => h.hour);
+    // Best/worst days
+    const significantDays = dayOfWeek.filter((d) => d.sessions >= 10);
+    const sortedDays = [...significantDays].sort((a, b) => b.cvr - a.cvr);
+    const bestDays = sortedDays.slice(0, 2).map((d) => d.dayName);
+    const worstDays = sortedDays.slice(-2).map((d) => d.dayName);
+    // Generate insights
+    if (peakHours.length > 0 && lowHours.length > 0) {
+        const peakCvr = sortedByCvr[0].cvr;
+        const lowCvr = sortedByCvr[sortedByCvr.length - 1].cvr;
+        if (peakCvr > lowCvr * 1.3) {
+            insights.push({
+                type: 'hourly',
+                severity: 'opportunity',
+                message: `CVR varies ${((peakCvr / lowCvr - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}% between peak (${formatHour(peakHours[0])}) and low hours (${formatHour(lowHours[0])})`,
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    if (performanceDegradationHours.length > 0) {
+        insights.push({
+            type: 'performance',
+            severity: 'warning',
+            message: `Performance degrades during: ${performanceDegradationHours.map(formatHour).join(', ')}`,
+        });
+    }
+    if (bestDays.length > 0 && worstDays.length > 0) {
+        const bestDayData = sortedDays[0];
+        const worstDayData = sortedDays[sortedDays.length - 1];
+        // Check if difference is statistically significant
+        const ci = calculateConfidenceInterval(bestDayData.conversions, bestDayData.sessions);
+        if (bestDayData.cvr > worstDayData.cvr * 1.2) {
+            insights.push({
+                type: 'daily',
+                severity: 'opportunity',
+                message: `${bestDays[0]} converts ${((bestDayData.cvr / worstDayData.cvr - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}% better than ${worstDays[worstDays.length - 1]} (${(ci.lower * 100).toFixed(2)}%-${(ci.upper * 100).toFixed(2)}% CI)`,
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    // Weekly trend insight
+    if (weekly.length >= 2) {
+        const recentWeeks = weekly.slice(-3);
+        const improvingCount = recentWeeks.filter((w) => w.trend === 'improving').length;
+        const decliningCount = recentWeeks.filter((w) => w.trend === 'declining').length;
+        if (improvingCount >= 2) {
+            insights.push({
+                type: 'weekly',
+                severity: 'info',
+                message: 'CVR trending upward over recent weeks',
+            });
+        }
+        else if (decliningCount >= 2) {
+            insights.push({
+                type: 'weekly',
+                severity: 'warning',
+                message: 'CVR trending downward over recent weeks - investigate performance changes',
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    return {
+        hourly,
+        dayOfWeek,
+        weekly,
+        insights,
+        peakHours,
+        lowHours,
+        bestDays,
+        worstDays,
+        performanceDegradationHours,
+    };
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// REPORT GENERATION
+// =============================================================================
+/**
+ * Generate markdown report for seasonality analysis.
+ */
+export function generateSeasonalityMarkdown(report) {
+    const lines = [];
+    lines.push('## Seasonality Analysis');
+    lines.push('');
+    // Key Insights
+    if (report.insights.length > 0) {
+        lines.push('### Key Insights');
+        lines.push('');
+        for (const insight of report.insights) {
+            const icon = insight.severity === 'warning' ? '⚠️' : insight.severity === 'opportunity' ? '💡' : 'ℹ️';
+            lines.push(`- ${icon} ${insight.message}`);
+        }
+        lines.push('');
+    }
+    // Hourly Patterns
+    lines.push('### Hourly Patterns');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('| Hour | Sessions | CVR | LCP | Index |');
+    lines.push('|------|----------|-----|-----|-------|');
+    for (const hour of report.hourly) {
+        const isPeak = report.peakHours.includes(hour.hour);
+        const isLow = report.lowHours.includes(hour.hour);
+        const marker = isPeak ? ' 🔥' : isLow ? ' ❄️' : '';
+        lines.push(`| ${formatHour(hour.hour)}${marker} | ${hour.sessions.toLocaleString()} | ${(hour.cvr * 100).toFixed(2)}% | ${hour.avgLcp ? `${hour.avgLcp.toFixed(0)}ms` : 'N/A'} | ${hour.cvrIndex.toFixed(0)} |`);
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // Day of Week
+    lines.push('### Day of Week');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('| Day | Sessions | CVR | LCP | Index |');
+    lines.push('|-----|----------|-----|-----|-------|');
+    for (const day of report.dayOfWeek) {
+        const isBest = report.bestDays.includes(day.dayName);
+        const isWorst = report.worstDays.includes(day.dayName);
+        const marker = isBest ? ' 🔥' : isWorst ? ' ❄️' : '';
+        lines.push(`| ${day.dayName}${marker} | ${day.sessions.toLocaleString()} | ${(day.cvr * 100).toFixed(2)}% | ${day.avgLcp ? `${day.avgLcp.toFixed(0)}ms` : 'N/A'} | ${day.cvrIndex.toFixed(0)} |`);
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // Weekly Trends
+    if (report.weekly.length > 0) {
+        lines.push('### Weekly Trends');
+        lines.push('');
+        lines.push('| Week | Sessions | CVR | LCP | Trend |');
+        lines.push('|------|----------|-----|-----|-------|');
+        for (const week of report.weekly) {
+            const trendIcon = week.trend === 'improving' ? '📈' : week.trend === 'declining' ? '📉' : '➡️';
+            lines.push(`| ${week.weekStart} | ${week.sessions.toLocaleString()} | ${(week.cvr * 100).toFixed(2)}% | ${week.avgLcp ? `${week.avgLcp.toFixed(0)}ms` : 'N/A'} | ${trendIcon} ${week.trend} |`);
+        }
+        lines.push('');
+    }
+    return lines.join('\n');
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// HELPERS
+// =============================================================================
+function getWeekStart(date) {
+    const d = new Date(date);
+    const day = d.getDay();
+    const diff = d.getDate() - day;
+    return new Date(d.setDate(diff));
+}
+function formatHour(hour) {
+    if (hour === 0)
+        return '12am';
+    if (hour === 12)
+        return '12pm';
+    if (hour < 12)
+        return `${hour}am`;
+    return `${hour - 12}pm`;
+}
+function calculateAverage(values) {
+    if (values.length === 0)
+        return 0;
+    return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=seasonality.js.map

package/dist/empirical/seasonality.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/empirical/segmentation.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,135 @@
+/**
+ * Segmentation Analysis
+ *
+ * Analyze conversion rates and performance impact by segment:
+ * - Device (mobile, desktop, tablet)
+ * - Page type (PDP, PLP, checkout, homepage)
+ * - Geography (country, region)
+ * - Traffic source (organic, paid, direct, social, etc.)
+ * - Custom events (purchase, add_to_cart, signup, lead)
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+import type { SessionData } from './datadog-session-query.js';
+export interface SegmentStats {
+    /** Segment name */
+    name: string;
+    /** Number of sessions */
+    sessions: number;
+    /** Percentage of total sessions */
+    session_pct: number;
+    /** Number of conversions */
+    conversions: number;
+    /** Conversion rate */
+    cvr: number;
+    /** Total revenue */
+    revenue: number;
+    /** Average order value */
+    aov: number;
+    /** Performance metrics (median values) */
+    performance: {
+        lcp_p50: number | null;
+        fcp_p50: number | null;
+        inp_p50: number | null;
+        cls_p50: number | null;
+        ttfb_p50: number | null;
+    };
+    /** Bounce rate */
+    bounce_rate: number;
+    /** Average page views */
+    avg_page_views: number;
+}
+export interface SegmentComparison {
+    /** Segment being compared */
+    segment: string;
+    /** Base segment (e.g., 'desktop' when comparing mobile) */
+    baseline: string;
+    /** CVR difference (segment - baseline) */
+    cvr_diff: number;
+    /** Relative CVR difference ((segment - baseline) / baseline) */
+    cvr_relative_diff: number;
+    /** Is the difference significant? */
+    is_significant: boolean;
+    /** Insight text */
+    insight: string;
+}
+export interface SegmentationReport {
+    /** Analysis by device */
+    by_device: {
+        segments: SegmentStats[];
+        comparisons: SegmentComparison[];
+        insight: string;
+    };
+    /** Analysis by page type */
+    by_page_type: {
+        segments: SegmentStats[];
+        comparisons: SegmentComparison[];
+        insight: string;
+    };
+    /** Analysis by country */
+    by_country: {
+        segments: SegmentStats[];
+        comparisons: SegmentComparison[];
+        insight: string;
+    };
+    /** Analysis by traffic source */
+    by_traffic_source: {
+        segments: SegmentStats[];
+        comparisons: SegmentComparison[];
+        insight: string;
+    };
+    /** Analysis by conversion event type */
+    by_event_type: {
+        events: EventStats[];
+        insight: string;
+    };
+    /** Summary */
+    summary: {
+        total_sessions: number;
+        highest_cvr_segment: {
+            type: string;
+            name: string;
+            cvr: number;
+        };
+        lowest_cvr_segment: {
+            type: string;
+            name: string;
+            cvr: number;
+        };
+        biggest_opportunity: string;
+    };
+}
+export interface EventStats {
+    /** Event name */
+    name: string;
+    /** Number of sessions with this event */
+    sessions: number;
+    /** Event rate (sessions with event / total sessions) */
+    rate: number;
+    /** Total value of events */
+    total_value: number;
+    /** Average value per event */
+    avg_value: number;
+}
+export type SegmentType = 'device' | 'page_type' | 'country' | 'traffic_source';
+/**
+ * Analyze sessions by a specific segment.
+ */
+export declare function analyzeBySegment(sessions: SessionData[], segmentType: SegmentType, eventName?: string): SegmentStats[];
+/**
+ * Compare segments to find significant differences.
+ */
+export declare function compareSegments(stats: SegmentStats[], baselineName?: string): SegmentComparison[];
+/**
+ * Analyze conversion events across all sessions.
+ */
+export declare function analyzeEvents(sessions: SessionData[]): EventStats[];
+/**
+ * Generate a complete segmentation report.
+ */
+export declare function generateSegmentationReport(sessions: SessionData[], eventName?: string): SegmentationReport;
+/**
+ * Generate markdown report for segmentation analysis.
+ */
+export declare function generateSegmentationMarkdown(report: SegmentationReport): string;
+//# sourceMappingURL=segmentation.d.ts.map

package/dist/empirical/segmentation.d.ts.map

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