kanmi-perf-revenue 1.0.0 → 1.2.0

package/dist/empirical/segmentation.js

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+/**
+ * Segmentation Analysis
+ *
+ * Analyze conversion rates and performance impact by segment:
+ * - Device (mobile, desktop, tablet)
+ * - Page type (PDP, PLP, checkout, homepage)
+ * - Geography (country, region)
+ * - Traffic source (organic, paid, direct, social, etc.)
+ * - Custom events (purchase, add_to_cart, signup, lead)
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+// =============================================================================
+// SEGMENTATION ANALYSIS
+// =============================================================================
+/**
+ * Analyze sessions by a specific segment.
+ */
+export function analyzeBySegment(sessions, segmentType, eventName = 'purchase') {
+    const segments = new Map();
+    // Group sessions by segment
+    for (const session of sessions) {
+        const segmentValue = getSegmentValue(session, segmentType);
+        if (!segmentValue)
+            continue;
+        if (!segments.has(segmentValue)) {
+            segments.set(segmentValue, []);
+        }
+        segments.get(segmentValue).push(session);
+    }
+    const totalSessions = sessions.length;
+    const stats = [];
+    for (const [name, segmentSessions] of segments) {
+        const conversions = segmentSessions.filter(s => hasConversionEvent(s, eventName)).length;
+        const revenue = segmentSessions.reduce((sum, s) => sum + getEventValue(s, eventName), 0);
+        const bounces = segmentSessions.filter(s => s.bounced).length;
+        const totalPageViews = segmentSessions.reduce((sum, s) => sum + s.page_views, 0);
+        stats.push({
+            name,
+            sessions: segmentSessions.length,
+            session_pct: segmentSessions.length / totalSessions,
+            conversions,
+            cvr: segmentSessions.length > 0 ? conversions / segmentSessions.length : 0,
+            revenue,
+            aov: conversions > 0 ? revenue / conversions : 0,
+            performance: {
+                lcp_p50: percentile(segmentSessions.map(s => s.lcp_ms).filter(v => v !== null), 50),
+                fcp_p50: percentile(segmentSessions.map(s => s.fcp_ms).filter(v => v !== null), 50),
+                inp_p50: percentile(segmentSessions.map(s => s.inp_ms).filter(v => v !== null), 50),
+                cls_p50: percentile(segmentSessions.map(s => s.cls).filter(v => v !== null), 50),
+                ttfb_p50: percentile(segmentSessions.map(s => s.ttfb_ms).filter(v => v !== null), 50),
+            },
+            bounce_rate: segmentSessions.length > 0 ? bounces / segmentSessions.length : 0,
+            avg_page_views: segmentSessions.length > 0 ? totalPageViews / segmentSessions.length : 0,
+        });
+    }
+    // Sort by sessions descending
+    stats.sort((a, b) => b.sessions - a.sessions);
+    return stats;
+}
+/**
+ * Compare segments to find significant differences.
+ */
+export function compareSegments(stats, baselineName) {
+    if (stats.length < 2)
+        return [];
+    // Use the largest segment as baseline if not specified
+    const baseline = baselineName
+        ? stats.find(s => s.name === baselineName)
+        : stats[0];
+    if (!baseline)
+        return [];
+    const comparisons = [];
+    for (const segment of stats) {
+        if (segment.name === baseline.name)
+            continue;
+        const cvrDiff = segment.cvr - baseline.cvr;
+        const cvrRelativeDiff = baseline.cvr > 0 ? cvrDiff / baseline.cvr : 0;
+        // Simple significance check: both segments need sufficient sample size
+        // and the difference should be meaningful (>5% relative)
+        const isSignificant = segment.sessions >= 100 &&
+            baseline.sessions >= 100 &&
+            Math.abs(cvrRelativeDiff) >= 0.05;
+        const direction = cvrDiff > 0 ? 'higher' : 'lower';
+        const pctDiff = Math.abs(cvrRelativeDiff * 100).toFixed(1);
+        comparisons.push({
+            segment: segment.name,
+            baseline: baseline.name,
+            cvr_diff: cvrDiff,
+            cvr_relative_diff: cvrRelativeDiff,
+            is_significant: isSignificant,
+            insight: isSignificant
+                ? `${segment.name} converts ${pctDiff}% ${direction} than ${baseline.name}`
+                : `No significant difference between ${segment.name} and ${baseline.name}`,
+        });
+    }
+    // Sort by absolute CVR difference
+    comparisons.sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.cvr_relative_diff) - Math.abs(a.cvr_relative_diff));
+    return comparisons;
+}
+/**
+ * Analyze conversion events across all sessions.
+ */
+export function analyzeEvents(sessions) {
+    const eventMap = new Map();
+    for (const session of sessions) {
+        for (const event of session.conversions) {
+            if (!eventMap.has(event.name)) {
+                eventMap.set(event.name, { sessions: new Set(), totalValue: 0, count: 0 });
+            }
+            const stats = eventMap.get(event.name);
+            stats.sessions.add(session.session_id);
+            stats.totalValue += event.value;
+            stats.count++;
+        }
+    }
+    const totalSessions = sessions.length;
+    const eventStats = [];
+    for (const [name, data] of eventMap) {
+        eventStats.push({
+            name,
+            sessions: data.sessions.size,
+            rate: totalSessions > 0 ? data.sessions.size / totalSessions : 0,
+            total_value: data.totalValue,
+            avg_value: data.count > 0 ? data.totalValue / data.count : 0,
+        });
+    }
+    // Sort by event rate descending
+    eventStats.sort((a, b) => b.rate - a.rate);
+    return eventStats;
+}
+/**
+ * Generate a complete segmentation report.
+ */
+export function generateSegmentationReport(sessions, eventName = 'purchase') {
+    // Analyze each segment type
+    const deviceStats = analyzeBySegment(sessions, 'device', eventName);
+    const deviceComparisons = compareSegments(deviceStats, 'desktop');
+    const pageTypeStats = analyzeBySegment(sessions, 'page_type', eventName);
+    const pageTypeComparisons = compareSegments(pageTypeStats);
+    const countryStats = analyzeBySegment(sessions, 'country', eventName);
+    const countryComparisons = compareSegments(countryStats);
+    const trafficStats = analyzeBySegment(sessions, 'traffic_source', eventName);
+    const trafficComparisons = compareSegments(trafficStats);
+    const eventStats = analyzeEvents(sessions);
+    // Find highest and lowest CVR segments
+    const allStats = [
+        ...deviceStats.map(s => ({ type: 'device', ...s })),
+        ...pageTypeStats.map(s => ({ type: 'page_type', ...s })),
+        ...countryStats.map(s => ({ type: 'country', ...s })),
+        ...trafficStats.map(s => ({ type: 'traffic_source', ...s })),
+    ].filter(s => s.sessions >= 100); // Only consider segments with sufficient data
+    const highestCvr = allStats.reduce((max, s) => s.cvr > max.cvr ? s : max, allStats[0]);
+    const lowestCvr = allStats.reduce((min, s) => s.cvr < min.cvr ? s : min, allStats[0]);
+    // Find biggest opportunity (largest segment with below-average CVR)
+    const overallCvr = sessions.filter(s => hasConversionEvent(s, eventName)).length / sessions.length;
+    const opportunities = allStats
+        .filter(s => s.cvr < overallCvr && s.sessions >= 500)
+        .sort((a, b) => (b.sessions * (overallCvr - b.cvr)) - (a.sessions * (overallCvr - a.cvr)));
+    const biggestOpportunity = opportunities[0]
+        ? `${opportunities[0].type}: ${opportunities[0].name} (${opportunities[0].sessions.toLocaleString()} sessions, ${(opportunities[0].cvr * 100).toFixed(2)}% CVR vs ${(overallCvr * 100).toFixed(2)}% overall)`
+        : 'No significant opportunities identified';
+    return {
+        by_device: {
+            segments: deviceStats,
+            comparisons: deviceComparisons,
+            insight: generateDeviceInsight(deviceStats, deviceComparisons),
+        },
+        by_page_type: {
+            segments: pageTypeStats,
+            comparisons: pageTypeComparisons,
+            insight: generatePageTypeInsight(pageTypeStats),
+        },
+        by_country: {
+            segments: countryStats,
+            comparisons: countryComparisons,
+            insight: generateCountryInsight(countryStats, countryComparisons),
+        },
+        by_traffic_source: {
+            segments: trafficStats,
+            comparisons: trafficComparisons,
+            insight: generateTrafficInsight(trafficStats, trafficComparisons),
+        },
+        by_event_type: {
+            events: eventStats,
+            insight: generateEventInsight(eventStats),
+        },
+        summary: {
+            total_sessions: sessions.length,
+            highest_cvr_segment: highestCvr
+                ? { type: highestCvr.type, name: highestCvr.name, cvr: highestCvr.cvr }
+                : { type: 'unknown', name: 'unknown', cvr: 0 },
+            lowest_cvr_segment: lowestCvr
+                ? { type: lowestCvr.type, name: lowestCvr.name, cvr: lowestCvr.cvr }
+                : { type: 'unknown', name: 'unknown', cvr: 0 },
+            biggest_opportunity: biggestOpportunity,
+        },
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Generate markdown report for segmentation analysis.
+ */
+export function generateSegmentationMarkdown(report) {
+    const lines = [];
+    lines.push('# Segmentation Analysis Report');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(`**Total Sessions:** ${report.summary.total_sessions.toLocaleString()}`);
+    lines.push('');
+    // Summary
+    lines.push('## Key Findings');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(`- **Highest CVR:** ${report.summary.highest_cvr_segment.type} = ${report.summary.highest_cvr_segment.name} (${(report.summary.highest_cvr_segment.cvr * 100).toFixed(2)}%)`);
+    lines.push(`- **Lowest CVR:** ${report.summary.lowest_cvr_segment.type} = ${report.summary.lowest_cvr_segment.name} (${(report.summary.lowest_cvr_segment.cvr * 100).toFixed(2)}%)`);
+    lines.push(`- **Biggest Opportunity:** ${report.summary.biggest_opportunity}`);
+    lines.push('');
+    // Device Analysis
+    lines.push('## By Device');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(report.by_device.insight);
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('| Device | Sessions | CVR | Revenue | LCP p50 | Bounce Rate |');
+    lines.push('|--------|----------|-----|---------|---------|-------------|');
+    for (const seg of report.by_device.segments) {
+        const lcpStr = seg.performance.lcp_p50 ? `${(seg.performance.lcp_p50 / 1000).toFixed(1)}s` : '-';
+        lines.push(`| ${seg.name} | ${seg.sessions.toLocaleString()} | ${(seg.cvr * 100).toFixed(2)}% | $${formatCurrency(seg.revenue)} | ${lcpStr} | ${(seg.bounce_rate * 100).toFixed(1)}% |`);
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // Page Type Analysis
+    lines.push('## By Page Type');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(report.by_page_type.insight);
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('| Page Type | Sessions | CVR | Revenue | Avg Page Views |');
+    lines.push('|-----------|----------|-----|---------|----------------|');
+    for (const seg of report.by_page_type.segments) {
+        lines.push(`| ${seg.name} | ${seg.sessions.toLocaleString()} | ${(seg.cvr * 100).toFixed(2)}% | $${formatCurrency(seg.revenue)} | ${seg.avg_page_views.toFixed(1)} |`);
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // Traffic Source Analysis
+    lines.push('## By Traffic Source');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(report.by_traffic_source.insight);
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('| Source | Sessions | CVR | Revenue | AOV |');
+    lines.push('|--------|----------|-----|---------|-----|');
+    for (const seg of report.by_traffic_source.segments) {
+        lines.push(`| ${seg.name} | ${seg.sessions.toLocaleString()} | ${(seg.cvr * 100).toFixed(2)}% | $${formatCurrency(seg.revenue)} | $${seg.aov.toFixed(0)} |`);
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // Country Analysis (top 5)
+    lines.push('## By Country (Top 5)');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(report.by_country.insight);
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('| Country | Sessions | CVR | Revenue |');
+    lines.push('|---------|----------|-----|---------|');
+    for (const seg of report.by_country.segments.slice(0, 5)) {
+        lines.push(`| ${seg.name} | ${seg.sessions.toLocaleString()} | ${(seg.cvr * 100).toFixed(2)}% | $${formatCurrency(seg.revenue)} |`);
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // Event Analysis
+    lines.push('## Conversion Events');
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push(report.by_event_type.insight);
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('| Event | Sessions | Rate | Total Value | Avg Value |');
+    lines.push('|-------|----------|------|-------------|-----------|');
+    for (const event of report.by_event_type.events) {
+        lines.push(`| ${event.name} | ${event.sessions.toLocaleString()} | ${(event.rate * 100).toFixed(2)}% | $${formatCurrency(event.total_value)} | $${event.avg_value.toFixed(0)} |`);
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('---');
+    lines.push('*Generated by Empirical Performance Revenue Engine*');
+    return lines.join('\n');
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// HELPERS
+// =============================================================================
+function getSegmentValue(session, segmentType) {
+    switch (segmentType) {
+        case 'device':
+            return session.device;
+        case 'page_type':
+            return session.page_type;
+        case 'country':
+            return session.country;
+        case 'traffic_source':
+            return session.traffic_source;
+    }
+}
+function hasConversionEvent(session, eventName) {
+    if (eventName === 'purchase') {
+        return session.has_purchase;
+    }
+    return session.conversions.some(e => e.name === eventName);
+}
+function getEventValue(session, eventName) {
+    if (eventName === 'purchase') {
+        return session.purchase_value;
+    }
+    const events = session.conversions.filter(e => e.name === eventName);
+    return events.reduce((sum, e) => sum + e.value, 0);
+}
+function percentile(values, p) {
+    if (values.length === 0)
+        return null;
+    const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+    const index = Math.ceil((p / 100) * sorted.length) - 1;
+    return sorted[Math.max(0, index)];
+}
+function formatCurrency(value) {
+    if (value >= 1_000_000) {
+        return `${(value / 1_000_000).toFixed(1)}M`;
+    }
+    if (value >= 1_000) {
+        return `${Math.round(value / 1_000)}K`;
+    }
+    return Math.round(value).toString();
+}
+function generateDeviceInsight(stats, comparisons) {
+    const mobile = stats.find(s => s.name === 'mobile');
+    const desktop = stats.find(s => s.name === 'desktop');
+    if (!mobile || !desktop)
+        return 'Insufficient device data.';
+    const mobileVsDesktop = comparisons.find(c => c.segment === 'mobile');
+    if (mobileVsDesktop?.is_significant) {
+        const direction = mobileVsDesktop.cvr_diff > 0 ? 'outperforms' : 'underperforms';
+        const pct = Math.abs(mobileVsDesktop.cvr_relative_diff * 100).toFixed(0);
+        return `Mobile ${direction} desktop by ${pct}%. Mobile LCP p50: ${mobile.performance.lcp_p50 ? (mobile.performance.lcp_p50 / 1000).toFixed(1) + 's' : 'N/A'} vs Desktop: ${desktop.performance.lcp_p50 ? (desktop.performance.lcp_p50 / 1000).toFixed(1) + 's' : 'N/A'}.`;
+    }
+    return 'No significant difference between mobile and desktop conversion rates.';
+}
+function generatePageTypeInsight(stats) {
+    const checkout = stats.find(s => s.name === 'checkout');
+    const pdp = stats.find(s => s.name === 'pdp');
+    if (checkout && checkout.cvr > 0) {
+        return `Checkout pages have ${(checkout.cvr * 100).toFixed(1)}% CVR. Focus performance optimization here for maximum impact.`;
+    }
+    if (pdp) {
+        return `Product detail pages (PDP) represent ${(pdp.session_pct * 100).toFixed(0)}% of sessions with ${(pdp.cvr * 100).toFixed(2)}% CVR.`;
+    }
+    return 'Page type analysis shows varied conversion rates across different page types.';
+}
+function generateCountryInsight(_stats, comparisons) {
+    const significant = comparisons.filter(c => c.is_significant);
+    if (significant.length === 0) {
+        return 'No significant CVR differences between countries.';
+    }
+    const worstPerformer = significant.find(c => c.cvr_diff < 0);
+    if (worstPerformer) {
+        const pct = Math.abs(worstPerformer.cvr_relative_diff * 100).toFixed(0);
+        return `${worstPerformer.segment} converts ${pct}% lower than ${worstPerformer.baseline}. Consider localized performance optimization.`;
+    }
+    return `${significant.length} countries show significant CVR differences.`;
+}
+function generateTrafficInsight(stats, _comparisons) {
+    const paid = stats.find(s => s.name === 'paid');
+    const organic = stats.find(s => s.name === 'organic');
+    if (paid && organic) {
+        const diff = ((paid.cvr - organic.cvr) / organic.cvr * 100).toFixed(0);
+        const direction = paid.cvr > organic.cvr ? 'higher' : 'lower';
+        return `Paid traffic converts ${Math.abs(Number(diff))}% ${direction} than organic. Paid AOV: $${paid.aov.toFixed(0)}, Organic AOV: $${organic.aov.toFixed(0)}.`;
+    }
+    const topSource = stats[0];
+    return `${topSource.name} is the largest traffic source (${(topSource.session_pct * 100).toFixed(0)}% of sessions) with ${(topSource.cvr * 100).toFixed(2)}% CVR.`;
+}
+function generateEventInsight(events) {
+    const purchase = events.find(e => e.name === 'purchase');
+    const addToCart = events.find(e => e.name === 'add_to_cart');
+    if (purchase && addToCart) {
+        const cartToPurchase = purchase.sessions / addToCart.sessions;
+        return `${(addToCart.rate * 100).toFixed(1)}% add to cart rate, ${(cartToPurchase * 100).toFixed(0)}% cart-to-purchase conversion.`;
+    }
+    if (events.length > 0) {
+        return `Tracking ${events.length} conversion events. Top event: ${events[0].name} (${(events[0].rate * 100).toFixed(2)}% rate).`;
+    }
+    return 'No conversion events tracked.';
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=segmentation.js.map

package/dist/empirical/segmentation.js.map

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package/dist/empirical/statistics.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+/**
+ * Statistical Significance Analysis
+ *
+ * Provides statistical rigor for conversion rate comparisons:
+ * - Confidence intervals for CVR
+ * - Two-proportion z-tests for comparing CVR between groups
+ * - Sample size recommendations
+ * - Effect size calculations
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+export interface ConfidenceInterval {
+    /** Point estimate (e.g., CVR) */
+    estimate: number;
+    /** Lower bound of interval */
+    lower: number;
+    /** Upper bound of interval */
+    upper: number;
+    /** Confidence level (e.g., 0.95 for 95%) */
+    confidence_level: number;
+    /** Margin of error */
+    margin_of_error: number;
+}
+export interface ProportionTest {
+    /** Group A statistics */
+    group_a: {
+        name: string;
+        conversions: number;
+        sessions: number;
+        cvr: number;
+        ci: ConfidenceInterval;
+    };
+    /** Group B statistics */
+    group_b: {
+        name: string;
+        conversions: number;
+        sessions: number;
+        cvr: number;
+        ci: ConfidenceInterval;
+    };
+    /** Absolute difference (A - B) */
+    absolute_diff: number;
+    /** Relative difference ((A - B) / B) */
+    relative_diff: number;
+    /** Z-score */
+    z_score: number;
+    /** P-value (two-tailed) */
+    p_value: number;
+    /** Is the difference statistically significant? */
+    is_significant: boolean;
+    /** Significance level used */
+    alpha: number;
+    /** Statistical power (approximate) */
+    power: number;
+    /** Insight text */
+    insight: string;
+}
+export interface SampleSizeRecommendation {
+    /** Baseline CVR */
+    baseline_cvr: number;
+    /** Minimum detectable effect (relative) */
+    mde: number;
+    /** Required sample size per group */
+    sample_size_per_group: number;
+    /** Significance level */
+    alpha: number;
+    /** Statistical power */
+    power: number;
+}
+export interface EffectSize {
+    /** Cohen's h for proportion differences */
+    cohens_h: number;
+    /** Interpretation */
+    interpretation: 'negligible' | 'small' | 'medium' | 'large';
+    /** Relative lift */
+    relative_lift: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate confidence interval for a proportion using Wilson score interval.
+ * More accurate than normal approximation, especially for small samples.
+ */
+export declare function calculateConfidenceInterval(conversions: number, sessions: number, confidenceLevel?: number): ConfidenceInterval;
+/**
+ * Calculate confidence interval for the difference between two proportions.
+ */
+export declare function calculateDifferenceCI(conversionsA: number, sessionsA: number, conversionsB: number, sessionsB: number, confidenceLevel?: number): ConfidenceInterval;
+/**
+ * Two-proportion z-test to compare conversion rates.
+ */
+export declare function twoProportionZTest(groupAName: string, conversionsA: number, sessionsA: number, groupBName: string, conversionsB: number, sessionsB: number, alpha?: number): ProportionTest;
+/**
+ * Calculate effect size (Cohen's h) for proportion differences.
+ */
+export declare function calculateEffectSize(pA: number, pB: number): EffectSize;
+/**
+ * Calculate required sample size for detecting a given effect.
+ */
+export declare function calculateRequiredSampleSize(baselineCvr: number, minDetectableEffect: number, // Relative (e.g., 0.10 for 10% lift)
+alpha?: number, power?: number): SampleSizeRecommendation;
+/**
+ * Check if current sample size is sufficient.
+ */
+export declare function isSampleSufficient(sessions: number, baselineCvr: number, minDetectableEffect?: number, alpha?: number, power?: number): {
+    sufficient: boolean;
+    current: number;
+    required: number;
+    recommendation: string;
+};
+/**
+ * Apply Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons.
+ */
+export declare function bonferroniCorrection(alpha: number, numComparisons: number): number;
+/**
+ * Apply Benjamini-Hochberg FDR correction.
+ * Returns adjusted p-values.
+ */
+export declare function benjaminiHochbergCorrection(pValues: number[]): number[];
+//# sourceMappingURL=statistics.d.ts.map

package/dist/empirical/statistics.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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