gloomberb 0.13.2 → 0.14.0

package/src/plugins/builtin/market-valuation/indicators.ts

@@ -8,7 +8,6 @@ const MILLIONS_TO_BILLIONS = 0.001;
 const QUARTERLY_STALE_MS = 270 * DAY_MS;
 /** Shiller republishes monthly; two missed months means something is wrong. */
 const MONTHLY_STALE_MS = 75 * DAY_MS;
-const DAILY_STALE_MS = 5 * DAY_MS;
 
 function percent(value: number): string {
   return `${Math.round(value)}%`;
@@ -23,18 +22,16 @@ function ratio(value: number): string {
 }
 
 /**
- * Total US market value. FRED discontinued the WILL5000* family, so this comes
- * from the cloud's own price history rather than the econ proxy.
+ * Dollar market value of US corporate equities from the Z.1 financial accounts:
+ * nonfinancial corporate business plus domestic financial sectors, both quarterly
+ * end-of-period liabilities in USD millions. FRED removed the Wilshire series in
+ * 2024 and an index level is not a capitalization, so this is the numerator for
+ * every market-cap ratio (see valuation-reference.md).
  */
-const WILSHIRE_5000: SeriesDef = {
-  key: "W5000",
-  scaleToBillions: 1,
-  source: {
-    kind: "market-history",
-    symbol: "^W5000",
-    exchange: "INDEX",
-    startDate: "1970-01-01",
-  },
+const US_CORPORATE_EQUITIES: SeriesDef = {
+  key: "Z1_CORPORATE_EQUITIES",
+  scaleToBillions: MILLIONS_TO_BILLIONS,
+  source: { kind: "fred-sum", seriesIds: ["NCBEILQ027S", "FBCELLQ027S"], limit: 400 },
 };
 
 const NOMINAL_GDP: SeriesDef = {
@@ -57,32 +54,31 @@ export const BUFFETT_INDICATOR: IndicatorDef = {
   id: "buffett",
   label: "Buffett Indicator",
   shortLabel: "Buffett",
-  description: "US total market cap over nominal GDP.",
+  description: "Z.1 corporate equities / nominal GDP (annual rate), %; quarterly.",
   input: {
     kind: "ratio",
-    numerator: WILSHIRE_5000,
+    numerator: US_CORPORATE_EQUITIES,
     denominator: NOMINAL_GDP,
     levels: { numeratorLabel: "Mkt cap", denominatorLabel: "GDP" },
   },
   ratioScale: 100,
   formatValue: percent,
   axisUnit: "%",
+  // The Z.1 universe runs well above an index-based reading (it values closely
+  // held equity too), so the bands sit on its own 1947-2026 distribution:
+  // p25 59%, median 85%, p75 139%, p90 194%.
   zones: [
-    { max: 75, id: "significantly-undervalued", label: "Significantly Undervalued" },
-    { max: 90, id: "modestly-undervalued", label: "Modestly Undervalued" },
-    { max: 115, id: "fair", label: "Fair Valued" },
-    { max: 135, id: "modestly-overvalued", label: "Modestly Overvalued" },
+    { max: 60, id: "significantly-undervalued", label: "Significantly Undervalued" },
+    { max: 75, id: "modestly-undervalued", label: "Modestly Undervalued" },
+    { max: 110, id: "fair", label: "Fair Valued" },
+    { max: 140, id: "modestly-overvalued", label: "Modestly Overvalued" },
     { max: null, id: "significantly-overvalued", label: "Significantly Overvalued" },
   ],
-  zoneScale: { min: 0, max: 250, edges: [0, 75, 90, 115, 135, 250], ticks: [0, 75, 100, 135, 250] },
+  zoneScale: { min: 0, max: 350, edges: [0, 60, 75, 110, 140, 350], ticks: [0, 60, 100, 140, 350] },
   reference: { value: 100, label: "parity" },
   chartGridStep: 150,
   trendModel: "log",
-  staleAfterMs: DAILY_STALE_MS,
-  notes: [
-    "Total US market value against one year of economic output. Warren Buffett called it probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment, in a December 2001 Fortune essay written with Carol Loomis.",
-    "Rates, buybacks, and a larger listed share of the economy have all raised what fair looks like since 2001, so read the trend deviation alongside the absolute zone.",
-  ],
+  staleAfterMs: QUARTERLY_STALE_MS,
   link: {
     url: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffett_indicator",
     label: "Buffett indicator, Wikipedia",
@@ -93,7 +89,7 @@ export const TOBINS_Q: IndicatorDef = {
   id: "tobins-q",
   label: "Tobin's Q",
   shortLabel: "Tobin Q",
-  description: "Corporate equity market value over replacement cost of net assets.",
+  description: "Nonfinancial corporate equities / net worth; quarterly Z.1.",
   input: {
     kind: "ratio",
     numerator: {
@@ -120,14 +116,10 @@ export const TOBINS_Q: IndicatorDef = {
     { max: null, id: "significantly-overvalued", label: "Significantly Overvalued" },
   ],
   zoneScale: { min: 0, max: 2, edges: [0, 0.55, 0.8, 1.1, 1.4, 2], ticks: [0, 0.55, 1, 1.4, 2] },
-  reference: { value: 1, label: "replacement cost" },
+  reference: { value: 1, label: "equities = net worth" },
   chartGridStep: 0.5,
   trendModel: "log",
   staleAfterMs: QUARTERLY_STALE_MS,
-  notes: [
-    "Equity market value against what it would cost to rebuild the assets behind it. Q above 1 means the market pays more than replacement cost.",
-    "Built from the Fed's quarterly Z.1 financial accounts for nonfinancial corporate business, so it moves in quarterly steps and revises with each release.",
-  ],
   link: { url: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobin%27s_q", label: "Tobin's q, Wikipedia" },
 };
 
@@ -135,7 +127,7 @@ export const SHILLER_CAPE: IndicatorDef = {
   id: "shiller-cape",
   label: "Shiller CAPE",
   shortLabel: "CAPE",
-  description: "S&P 500 price over ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings.",
+  description: "Price / ten-year mean real earnings; Shiller monthly CAPE.",
   input: { kind: "direct", series: shillerSeries("SHILLER_CAPE", "cape") },
   ratioScale: 1,
   formatValue: (value) => formatNumber(value, 1),
@@ -153,10 +145,6 @@ export const SHILLER_CAPE: IndicatorDef = {
   chartGridStep: 10,
   trendModel: "log",
   staleAfterMs: MONTHLY_STALE_MS,
-  notes: [
-    "Price divided by the average of ten years of real earnings, which smooths away the profit cycle that makes a one-year P/E swing hardest exactly when it matters most.",
-    "Robert Shiller's series runs back to 1881. It has spent decades above its own median without mean-reverting, so treat it as a long-horizon return signal rather than a timing tool.",
-  ],
   link: {
     url: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio",
     label: "CAPE ratio, Wikipedia",
@@ -167,7 +155,7 @@ export const EXCESS_CAPE_YIELD: IndicatorDef = {
   id: "excess-cape-yield",
   label: "Excess CAPE Yield",
   shortLabel: "ERP (ECY)",
-  description: "CAPE earnings yield over the real 10-year Treasury yield.",
+  description: "1/CAPE − real 10Y Treasury yield; Shiller monthly (%).",
   input: { kind: "direct", series: shillerSeries("SHILLER_ECY", "excessCapeYield") },
   // Shiller publishes it as a decimal fraction; show it as a percent.
   ratioScale: 100,
@@ -188,10 +176,6 @@ export const EXCESS_CAPE_YIELD: IndicatorDef = {
   // The spread has been negative, so a log fit would silently drop those years.
   trendModel: "linear",
   staleAfterMs: MONTHLY_STALE_MS,
-  notes: [
-    "What stocks yield over inflation-protected bonds: the CAPE earnings yield minus the real ten-year Treasury yield. It is the equity risk premium in the form Shiller publishes.",
-    "Unlike a price ratio, higher is cheaper. It went negative before the 1929 and 2000 peaks, when bonds out-yielded stocks outright.",
-  ],
   link: {
     url: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equity_premium_puzzle",
     label: "Equity risk premium, Wikipedia",
@@ -202,7 +186,7 @@ export const SP500_DIVIDEND_YIELD: IndicatorDef = {
   id: "sp500-dividend-yield",
   label: "S&P 500 Dividend Yield",
   shortLabel: "Div yield",
-  description: "Index dividend over index price.",
+  description: "Annual dividends / price; Shiller monthly series (%).",
   input: {
     kind: "ratio",
     numerator: shillerSeries("SHILLER_DIVIDEND", "dividend"),
@@ -224,10 +208,6 @@ export const SP500_DIVIDEND_YIELD: IndicatorDef = {
   chartGridStep: 4,
   trendModel: "log",
   staleAfterMs: MONTHLY_STALE_MS,
-  notes: [
-    "What the index pays out against what it costs. Buybacks have moved a large share of shareholder return off this line since the 1980s, so the modern level is structurally lower than the pre-1990 record.",
-    "Read it against its own recent decades rather than the full history for that reason.",
-  ],
   link: { url: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend_yield", label: "Dividend yield, Wikipedia" },
 };
 
@@ -235,7 +215,7 @@ export const HOUSEHOLD_EQUITY_ALLOCATION: IndicatorDef = {
   id: "household-equity-allocation",
   label: "Investor Equity Allocation",
   shortLabel: "Equity alloc",
-  description: "Share of household financial assets held in equities.",
+  description: "Household and nonprofit direct/indirect equities / financial assets, %.",
   input: {
     kind: "direct",
     series: {
@@ -261,10 +241,6 @@ export const HOUSEHOLD_EQUITY_ALLOCATION: IndicatorDef = {
   chartGridStep: 10,
   trendModel: "log",
   staleAfterMs: QUARTERLY_STALE_MS,
-  notes: [
-    "How much of what households own sits in stocks. When investors are already all-in there is little cash left to bid prices higher, which is why this has tracked ten-year forward returns more closely than any price ratio.",
-    "From the Fed's quarterly Z.1 accounts, counting equities held directly and through funds.",
-  ],
   link: {
     url: "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL153064486Q",
     label: "Household equity share, FRED",
@@ -275,33 +251,31 @@ export const MARKET_CAP_TO_M2: IndicatorDef = {
   id: "market-cap-m2",
   label: "Market Cap to M2",
   shortLabel: "Cap / M2",
-  description: "US total market cap against the money supply.",
+  description: "Z.1 corporate equities / M2 money stock, %; quarterly.",
   input: {
     kind: "ratio",
-    numerator: WILSHIRE_5000,
+    numerator: US_CORPORATE_EQUITIES,
     denominator: M2,
     levels: { numeratorLabel: "Mkt cap", denominatorLabel: "M2" },
   },
   ratioScale: 100,
   formatValue: percent,
   axisUnit: "%",
-  // Bands anchored on the 1989-2026 distribution: p25 142%, median 180%, p75 206%.
+  // Bands anchored on the Z.1 numerator's 1989-2026 distribution: p25 205%,
+  // median 255%, p75 293%. Earlier decades sit far lower and would put the
+  // whole modern era in one band.
   zones: [
-    { max: 130, id: "significantly-undervalued", label: "Significantly Undervalued" },
-    { max: 160, id: "modestly-undervalued", label: "Modestly Undervalued" },
-    { max: 210, id: "fair", label: "Fair Valued" },
-    { max: 260, id: "modestly-overvalued", label: "Modestly Overvalued" },
+    { max: 200, id: "significantly-undervalued", label: "Significantly Undervalued" },
+    { max: 230, id: "modestly-undervalued", label: "Modestly Undervalued" },
+    { max: 270, id: "fair", label: "Fair Valued" },
+    { max: 300, id: "modestly-overvalued", label: "Modestly Overvalued" },
     { max: null, id: "significantly-overvalued", label: "Significantly Overvalued" },
   ],
-  zoneScale: { min: 0, max: 350, edges: [0, 130, 160, 210, 260, 350], ticks: [0, 130, 210, 260, 350] },
-  reference: { value: 180, label: "median" },
+  zoneScale: { min: 0, max: 500, edges: [0, 200, 230, 270, 300, 500], ticks: [0, 200, 255, 300, 500] },
+  reference: { value: 255, label: "median" },
   chartGridStep: 100,
   trendModel: "log",
-  staleAfterMs: DAILY_STALE_MS,
-  notes: [
-    "Market value measured against the money supply rather than output, which is the liquidity-adjusted read on the same question the Buffett indicator asks.",
-    "It falls when the Fed expands M2 faster than equities rise, so the 2020 surge shows up here as cheapening even while price ratios were climbing.",
-  ],
+  staleAfterMs: QUARTERLY_STALE_MS,
   link: { url: "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL", label: "M2 money stock, FRED" },
 };
 
@@ -309,7 +283,7 @@ export const MARGIN_DEBT_TO_GDP: IndicatorDef = {
   id: "margin-debt-gdp",
   label: "Margin Debt to GDP",
   shortLabel: "Margin debt",
-  description: "Borrowing against securities, against the size of the economy.",
+  description: "Margin loans and other customer receivables / nominal GDP (annual rate), %.",
   input: {
     kind: "ratio",
     numerator: {
@@ -336,10 +310,6 @@ export const MARGIN_DEBT_TO_GDP: IndicatorDef = {
   chartGridStep: 1,
   trendModel: "log",
   staleAfterMs: QUARTERLY_STALE_MS,
-  notes: [
-    "How much investors have borrowed against their holdings. Leverage is what turns a decline into forced selling, so it is froth rather than value, but it peaks where valuations do.",
-    "Its two highest readings are the first quarter of 2000 and the third of 2008. From the Fed's Z.1 accounts, which reach further back than FINRA's own margin table.",
-  ],
   link: {
     url: "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL663067003Q",
     label: "Margin account receivables, FRED",
@@ -350,10 +320,10 @@ export const MARKET_CAP_TO_PROFITS: IndicatorDef = {
   id: "market-cap-profits",
   label: "Market Cap to Corporate Profits",
   shortLabel: "Cap / profits",
-  description: "US total market cap over after-tax corporate profits.",
+  description: "Z.1 corporate equities / corporate profits (IVA/CCAdj, annual rate); quarterly.",
   input: {
     kind: "ratio",
-    numerator: WILSHIRE_5000,
+    numerator: US_CORPORATE_EQUITIES,
     denominator: {
       key: "CPROFIT",
       scaleToBillions: 1,
@@ -364,26 +334,23 @@ export const MARKET_CAP_TO_PROFITS: IndicatorDef = {
   ratioScale: 1,
   formatValue: (value) => formatNumber(value, 1),
   axisUnit: "",
-  // Bands anchored on the 1989-2026 distribution: p25 7.9, median 9.1, p75 12.3.
+  // Bands anchored on the Z.1 numerator's 1989-2026 distribution: p25 10.6,
+  // median 13.1, p75 17.0.
   zones: [
-    { max: 8, id: "significantly-undervalued", label: "Significantly Undervalued" },
-    { max: 9, id: "modestly-undervalued", label: "Modestly Undervalued" },
-    { max: 12, id: "fair", label: "Fair Valued" },
-    { max: 15, id: "modestly-overvalued", label: "Modestly Overvalued" },
+    { max: 10.5, id: "significantly-undervalued", label: "Significantly Undervalued" },
+    { max: 12, id: "modestly-undervalued", label: "Modestly Undervalued" },
+    { max: 15, id: "fair", label: "Fair Valued" },
+    { max: 17, id: "modestly-overvalued", label: "Modestly Overvalued" },
     { max: null, id: "significantly-overvalued", label: "Significantly Overvalued" },
   ],
-  zoneScale: { min: 0, max: 20, edges: [0, 8, 9, 12, 15, 20], ticks: [0, 9, 12, 15, 20] },
-  reference: { value: 9.1, label: "median" },
+  zoneScale: { min: 0, max: 25, edges: [0, 10.5, 12, 15, 17, 25], ticks: [0, 12, 15, 17, 25] },
+  reference: { value: 13.1, label: "median" },
   chartGridStep: 5,
   trendModel: "log",
-  staleAfterMs: DAILY_STALE_MS,
-  notes: [
-    "A price-to-earnings ratio for the whole economy rather than the index, using what every US corporation actually earned after tax.",
-    "Profits are near a record share of GDP, so this asks whether the market is dear even against unusually good earnings. Its highest reading is March 2000.",
-  ],
+  staleAfterMs: QUARTERLY_STALE_MS,
   link: {
     url: "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPROFIT",
-    label: "Corporate profits after tax, FRED",
+    label: "Corporate profits (IVA/CCAdj), FRED",
   },
 };
 

package/src/plugins/builtin/market-valuation/model.test.ts

@@ -1,32 +1,11 @@
 import { describe, expect, test } from "bun:test";
-import {
-  BUFFETT_INDICATOR,
-  EXCESS_CAPE_YIELD,
-  INDICATORS,
-  SHILLER_CAPE,
-  SP500_DIVIDEND_YIELD,
-  TOBINS_Q,
-  alignToDenominator,
-  buildValuationSeries,
-  chartYearLabels,
-  classifyZone,
-  fitTrend,
-  meanRatio,
-  niceDomain,
-  projectChart,
-  projectView,
-  resolveIndicatorArg,
-  sigmaVsTrend,
-  sliceByRange,
-  trendAt,
-  zoneScaleBands,
-  zoneScaleFraction,
-  zoneScaleValueAt,
-  type DatedSeries,
-  type IndicatorBuild,
-  type RatioPoint,
-  type ScaledObs,
-} from "./model";
+import { alignToDenominator, buildValuationSeries, type RatioPoint, type ScaledObs } from "./align";
+import { chartYearLabels, meanRatio, niceDomain, projectChart, zoneSeriesFor } from "./chart-projection";
+import { classifyZone, zoneScaleBands, zoneScaleFraction, zoneScaleValueAt } from "./defs";
+import { BUFFETT_INDICATOR, EXCESS_CAPE_YIELD, INDICATORS, SHILLER_CAPE, SP500_DIVIDEND_YIELD, TOBINS_Q, resolveIndicatorArg } from "./indicators";
+import { type DatedSeries } from "./series";
+import { fitTrend, sigmaVsTrend, trendAt } from "./trend";
+import { projectView, sliceByRange, type IndicatorBuild } from "./view";
 
 function scaled(date: string, value: number): ScaledObs {
   return { date, value };
@@ -165,10 +144,10 @@ describe("fitTrend", () => {
 });
 
 describe("classifyZone", () => {
-  test("Buffett boundaries are half-open at 75, 90, 115, 135", () => {
-    expect(classifyZone(BUFFETT_INDICATOR, 74.999).id).toBe("significantly-undervalued");
-    expect(classifyZone(BUFFETT_INDICATOR, 90).id).toBe("fair");
-    expect(classifyZone(BUFFETT_INDICATOR, 135).id).toBe("significantly-overvalued");
+  test("Buffett boundaries are half-open at 60, 75, 110, 140", () => {
+    expect(classifyZone(BUFFETT_INDICATOR, 59.999).id).toBe("significantly-undervalued");
+    expect(classifyZone(BUFFETT_INDICATOR, 75).id).toBe("fair");
+    expect(classifyZone(BUFFETT_INDICATOR, 140).id).toBe("significantly-overvalued");
   });
 
   test("a yield-shaped indicator reads the other way round", () => {
@@ -286,15 +265,17 @@ describe("projectView", () => {
   });
 
   test("staleness uses the indicator's own cadence", () => {
-    // Three months past the last print: overdue daily, normal for quarterly Z.1.
+    // Three months past the last print: overdue monthly, normal for quarterly Z.1.
     const nowMs = Date.parse("2026-04-01");
-    expect(projectView(build, "ALL", { nowMs }).observationStale).toBe(true);
-    const quarterly: IndicatorBuild = { ...build, indicator: TOBINS_Q };
-    expect(projectView(quarterly, "ALL", { nowMs }).observationStale).toBe(false);
-    expect(projectView(quarterly, "ALL", { nowMs: Date.parse("2026-09-02") }).observationStale)
-      .toBe(false);
-    expect(projectView(quarterly, "ALL", { nowMs: Date.parse("2027-02-01") }).observationStale)
-      .toBe(true);
+    const monthly: IndicatorBuild = { ...build, indicator: SHILLER_CAPE };
+    expect(projectView(monthly, "ALL", { nowMs }).observationStale).toBe(true);
+    for (const quarterly of [build, { ...build, indicator: TOBINS_Q }]) {
+      expect(projectView(quarterly, "ALL", { nowMs }).observationStale).toBe(false);
+      expect(projectView(quarterly, "ALL", { nowMs: Date.parse("2026-09-02") }).observationStale)
+        .toBe(false);
+      expect(projectView(quarterly, "ALL", { nowMs: Date.parse("2027-02-01") }).observationStale)
+        .toBe(true);
+    }
   });
 
   test("a direct indicator has no vintage label to show", () => {
@@ -333,9 +314,12 @@ describe("richness normalisation", () => {
 });
 
 describe("sliceByRange", () => {
-  test("falls back to the whole series when a window leaves under two points", () => {
-    expect(sliceByRange([ratioPoint("1990-01-01", 60), ratioPoint("1991-01-01", 62)], "10Y"))
-      .toHaveLength(2);
+  test("keeps a sparse selected window, including a missing latest observation", () => {
+    const points = [ratioPoint("1990-01-01", 60), ratioPoint("2026-01-01", 62), { date: "2026-02-01", ratio: null }];
+    expect(sliceByRange(points, "10Y")).toEqual(points.slice(1));
+    expect(sliceByRange(points.slice(0, 2), "10Y")).toEqual(points.slice(1, 2));
+    expect(sliceByRange(points, "10Y", Date.parse("2038-01-01"))).toEqual([]);
+    expect(sliceByRange([], "10Y")).toEqual([]);
   });
 });
 
@@ -348,3 +332,55 @@ describe("resolveIndicatorArg", () => {
     expect(resolveIndicatorArg("nonsense")).toBeNull();
   });
 });
+
+
+describe("valuation observation gaps", () => {
+  test("missing and nonpositive denominator prints interrupt interpolation and carry until recovery", () => {
+    for (const missing of [null, 0, -5, Number.NaN, Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY]) {
+      const legs = new Map<string, DatedSeries>([
+        ["NCBEILQ027S", series([
+          { date: "2026-01-01", value: 200 }, { date: "2026-02-01", value: 200 },
+          { date: "2026-04-01", value: 200 }, { date: "2026-05-01", value: 200 },
+          { date: "2026-07-01", value: 200 }, { date: "2026-08-01", value: 0 },
+        ])],
+        ["TNWMVBSNNCB", series([
+          { date: "2026-01-01", value: 100 }, { date: "2026-04-01", value: missing },
+          { date: "2026-07-01", value: 100 },
+        ])],
+      ]);
+      const built = buildValuationSeries(TOBINS_Q, legs);
+      expect(built.points.map((point) => point.ratio)).toEqual([2, null, null, null, 2, 0]);
+      expect(built.points[1]!.denominatorBillions).toBeUndefined();
+      legs.set("TNWMVBSNNCB", series(legs.get("TNWMVBSNNCB")!.observations.slice(0, 2)));
+      expect(buildValuationSeries(TOBINS_Q, legs).points.at(-1)!.ratio).toBeNull();
+    }
+  });
+
+  test("direct signed values remain usable while dated gaps cannot become headlines, ranks or joined chart segments", () => {
+    const legs = new Map<string, DatedSeries>([["SHILLER_ECY", series([
+      { date: "2023-01-01", value: -0.02 }, { date: "2024-01-01", value: null },
+      { date: "2025-01-01", value: 0 }, { date: "2026-01-01", value: Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY },
+    ])]]);
+    const built = buildValuationSeries(EXCESS_CAPE_YIELD, legs);
+    expect(built.points.map((point) => point.ratio)).toEqual([-2, null, 0, null]);
+    const view = projectView({ indicator: EXCESS_CAPE_YIELD, series: built, trend: fitTrend(built.points, "linear") }, "ALL");
+    expect([view.current.ratio, view.zone, view.richPercentile, view.richSigma, view.ratioOneYearAgo]).toEqual([null, null, null, null, 0]);
+    expect(view.mean).toBe(-1);
+    expect(view.allTimeHigh.ratio).toBe(0);
+    expect(view.allTimeLow.ratio).toBe(-2);
+    for (const zone of zoneSeriesFor(EXCESS_CAPE_YIELD, view.chart.sourcePoints)) {
+      expect(zone.interpolation).toBe("none");
+      expect(zone.points[1]!.value).toBeNull();
+      expect(zone.points[3]!.value).toBeNull();
+    }
+  });
+});
+
+
+test("valuation histories reject calendar rollover rather than establish a fabricated observation date", () => {
+  const make = (date: string) => new Map<string, DatedSeries>([["SHILLER_CAPE", series([
+    { date: "2024-01-01", value: 30 }, { date, value: 40 },
+  ])]]);
+  expect(() => buildValuationSeries(SHILLER_CAPE, make("2024-02-30"))).toThrow("Invalid observation date");
+  expect(buildValuationSeries(SHILLER_CAPE, make("2024-02-29")).points.at(-1)).toEqual({ date: "2024-02-29", ratio: 40 });
+});

package/src/plugins/builtin/market-valuation/pane.test.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
+import { Box } from "../../../ui";
 import { afterEach, beforeEach, describe, expect, test } from "bun:test";
-import { act } from "react";
-import { PaneFooterProvider } from "../../../components/layout/pane/footer";
+import { act, useReducer } from "react";
+import { PaneFooterProvider, PaneFooterBar } from "../../../components/layout/pane/footer";
 import {
   attachValuationPersistence,
   hydrateValuationSeries,
@@ -8,7 +9,7 @@ import {
 } from "./cache";
 import { testRender } from "../../../renderers/opentui/test-utils";
 import {
-  AppContext,
+  AppContext, appReducer,
   createInitialState,
   PaneInstanceProvider,
 } from "../../../state/app/context";
@@ -22,12 +23,12 @@ function obs(values: Array<[string, number]>) {
   return values.map(([date, value]) => ({ date, value }));
 }
 
-/** Wilshire 76.2T over GDP 32.5T is 235%; the Z.1 pair is 38.0T / 40.0T, or 0.95. */
+/** Synthetic cache; Z.1 nonfinancial equities / net worth is 38.0T / 40.0T, all equities 52.0T. */
 const LEGS: Array<[string, Array<{ date: string; value: number }>]> = [
-  ["W5000", obs([
-    ["2024-01-02", 60_000],
-    ["2025-01-02", 68_000],
-    ["2026-06-15", 76_200],
+  ["Z1_CORPORATE_EQUITIES", obs([
+    ["2024-01-01", 42_000_000],
+    ["2025-01-01", 48_000_000],
+    ["2026-01-01", 52_000_000],
   ])],
   ["GDP", obs([
     ["2024-01-01", 28_000],
@@ -99,7 +100,7 @@ async function settle() {
 
 const TEST_PANE_ID = "valuation:test";
 
-async function renderPane(settings: Record<string, unknown> = {}, width = 128) {
+async function renderPane(settings: Record<string, unknown> = {}, width = 128, height = 40) {
   const layout = {
     dockRoot: { kind: "pane" as const, instanceId: TEST_PANE_ID },
     instances: [{ instanceId: TEST_PANE_ID, paneId: "market-valuation", settings }],
@@ -111,24 +112,19 @@ async function renderPane(settings: Record<string, unknown> = {}, width = 128) {
     layout,
     layouts: [{ name: "Default", layout: cloneLayout(layout) }],
   });
-  setup = await testRender(
-    <AppContext value={{ state, dispatch: () => {} }}>
+  state.focusedPaneId = TEST_PANE_ID;
+  function Harness() {
+    const [current, dispatch] = useReducer(appReducer, state);
+    return <AppContext value={{ state: current, dispatch }}>
       <PaneInstanceProvider paneId={TEST_PANE_ID}>
-        <PaneFooterProvider>
-          {() => (
-            <MarketValuationPane
-              paneId={TEST_PANE_ID}
-              paneType="market-valuation"
-              focused
-              width={width}
-              height={40}
-            />
-          )}
-        </PaneFooterProvider>
+        <PaneFooterProvider>{footer => <Box width={width} height={height + 1} flexDirection="column">
+          <Box height={height}><MarketValuationPane paneId={TEST_PANE_ID} paneType="market-valuation" focused width={width} height={height}/></Box>
+          <PaneFooterBar footer={footer} focused width={width}/>
+        </Box>}</PaneFooterProvider>
       </PaneInstanceProvider>
-    </AppContext>,
-    { width, height: 40 },
-  );
+    </AppContext>;
+  }
+  setup = await testRender(<Harness/>, { width, height: height + 1 });
   await settle();
   return setup.captureCharFrame();
 }
@@ -147,45 +143,28 @@ afterEach(async () => {
   resetValuationPersistence();
 });
 
+
 describe("MarketValuationPane", () => {
-  test("summarizes every indicator in one table, each in its own units", async () => {
+  test("market-cap ratios build from the Z.1 equities sum beside direct measures", async () => {
     const frame = await renderPane();
     // A percent, a bare multiple, and two yields all sit in one VALUE column.
     for (const label of ["Buffett", "CAPE", "Tobin Q", "Equity alloc", "Div yield", "Cap / M2"]) {
       expect(frame).toContain(label);
     }
-    expect(frame).toContain("234%");
+    expect(frame).not.toContain("Unavailable");
+    // 52.0T over GDP interpolated to 2026-01-01 (about 32.0T), M2 (about 22.8T), profits 4.8T.
+    expect(frame).toMatch(/Buffett\s+16\d%/);
+    expect(frame).toMatch(/Cap \/ M2\s+22\d%/);
+    expect(frame).toMatch(/Cap \/ profits\s+10\.8/);
     expect(frame).toContain("41.2");
     expect(frame).toContain("0.95");
-    expect(frame).toContain("329%");
-  });
-
-  test("wide panes put the list beside the detail, narrow ones stack it", async () => {
-    const split = await renderPane({}, 128);
-    // In the split the chart shares a line with the list rows.
-    expect(split).toMatch(/Buffett.*\n/);
-    const stacked = await renderPane({}, 92);
-    expect(stacked).toContain("Buffett");
-    expect(stacked).toContain("Cap / M2");
-  });
-
-  test("the filter narrows the list without blanking the detail", async () => {
-    const frame = await renderPane();
-    expect(frame).toContain("filter indicators");
-  });
-
-  test("a yield reads cheap when it is high, unlike a price ratio", async () => {
-    const frame = await renderPane();
-    // Both Buffett at 234% and an excess CAPE yield of 1.0% mean expensive.
-    expect(frame).toMatch(/Buffett\s+234%\s+Sig\. over/);
-    expect(frame).toMatch(/ERP \(ECY\)\s+1\.0%\s+Sig\. over/);
   });
 
   test("detail follows the selected indicator without repeating the row", async () => {
     const frame = await renderPane({ indicator: "tobins-q" });
     expect(frame).toContain("Equities");
     expect(frame).toContain("Net worth");
-    expect(frame).toContain("replacement cost");
+    expect(frame).toContain("equities = net worth");
     expect(frame).not.toContain("Mkt cap");
     // The row above already names the indicator and its zone.
     expect(frame).not.toContain("Fair Valued");
@@ -193,14 +172,14 @@ describe("MarketValuationPane", () => {
 
   test("a direct indicator shows no dollar levels row", async () => {
     const frame = await renderPane({ indicator: "shiller-cape" });
-    expect(frame).toContain("ten years of real earnings");
+    expect(frame).toContain("ATL");
     expect(frame).not.toContain("Mkt cap");
     expect(frame).not.toContain("Equities");
   });
 
   test("draws the mean apart from the reference line", async () => {
-    const frame = await renderPane();
-    expect(frame).toContain("parity");
+    const frame = await renderPane({ indicator: "tobins-q" });
+    expect(frame).toContain("equities = net worth");
     expect(frame).toContain("mean");
   });
 });
@@ -245,3 +224,18 @@ describe("shouldPersistSelection", () => {
     })).toBe(false);
   });
 });
+
+
+test("a short stacked pane scrolls to monetary basis and extrema dates", async () => {
+  await renderPane({ indicator: "tobins-q" }, 48, 25);
+  for (let i = 0; i < 10; i += 1) {
+    await act(async () => { await setup!.mockMouse.scroll(47, 20, "down"); });
+  }
+  await settle();
+  const frame = setup!.captureCharFrame();
+  expect(frame).toContain("38.0T");
+  expect(frame).toContain("40.0T");
+  expect(frame).toContain("Net worth as of 2026Q1");
+  expect(frame).toContain("2024-01-01");
+  expect(frame).toContain("2026-01-01");
+});