ceo-orchestration 1.0.0

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  1. package/.claude/adr/ADR-001-runtime-state-directory.md +164 -0
  2. package/.claude/adr/ADR-002-hooks-package-layout.md +228 -0
  3. package/.claude/adr/ADR-003-branch-protection-replaces-skill-signing.md +266 -0
  4. package/.claude/adr/ADR-004-defer-bash-legacy-removal.md +171 -0
  5. package/.claude/adr/ADR-005-event-stream-v2.md +153 -0
  6. package/.claude/adr/ADR-006-registry-derived-manifests.md +145 -0
  7. package/.claude/adr/ADR-007-spec-v1-semver-rc-policy.md +159 -0
  8. package/.claude/adr/ADR-008-hook-adapter-layer.md +169 -0
  9. package/.claude/adr/ADR-009-squad-contract.md +167 -0
  10. package/.claude/adr/ADR-010-canonical-edit-sentinel.md +181 -0
  11. package/.claude/adr/ADR-011-event-stream-v2.1-injection-flag.md +150 -0
  12. package/.claude/adr/ADR-012-cross-adapter-golden-fixtures.md +182 -0
  13. package/.claude/adr/ADR-013-squad-trading-hft.md +135 -0
  14. package/.claude/adr/ADR-014-hook-migration-batch-policy.md +197 -0
  15. package/.claude/adr/ADR-015-reflexion-v2-outcome-loop.md +248 -0
  16. package/.claude/adr/ADR-016-spawn-token-tracking.md +179 -0
  17. package/.claude/adr/ADR-017-lesson-pruning-policy.md +193 -0
  18. package/.claude/adr/ADR-018-claim-grammar.md +302 -0
  19. package/.claude/adr/ADR-019-AMEND-1-confidence-gate-block-mode-lifecycle.md +128 -0
  20. package/.claude/adr/ADR-019-AMEND-2-CLASS-SHA_EXISTS-promote-to-high-confidence-block.md +67 -0
  21. package/.claude/adr/ADR-019-confidence-gate-enforcement-lifecycle.md +221 -0
  22. package/.claude/adr/ADR-020-lesson-pruning-policy-v2.md +171 -0
  23. package/.claude/adr/ADR-021-e2e-harness-contract.md +189 -0
  24. package/.claude/adr/ADR-022-reserved-slot.md +52 -0
  25. package/.claude/adr/ADR-023-docs-freshness-lifecycle.md +184 -0
  26. package/.claude/adr/ADR-024-perf-baseline-policy.md +222 -0
  27. package/.claude/adr/ADR-025-squad-edtech.md +236 -0
  28. package/.claude/adr/ADR-026-squad-government.md +263 -0
  29. package/.claude/adr/ADR-027-unified-agent-state-backend.md +266 -0
  30. package/.claude/adr/ADR-028-multi-llm-canonical-parity.md +244 -0
  31. package/.claude/adr/ADR-029-lexical-tfidf-retrieval.md +205 -0
  32. package/.claude/adr/ADR-030-llm-as-judge-methodology.md +336 -0
  33. package/.claude/adr/ADR-031-self-improving-skills.md +221 -0
  34. package/.claude/adr/ADR-032-interactive-debate-protocol.md +337 -0
  35. package/.claude/adr/ADR-033-cost-budget-enforcement.md +275 -0
  36. package/.claude/adr/ADR-034-shared-working-memory.md +233 -0
  37. package/.claude/adr/ADR-035-otel-export.md +242 -0
  38. package/.claude/adr/ADR-036-output-safety.md +263 -0
  39. package/.claude/adr/ADR-037-chaos-testing-methodology.md +289 -0
  40. package/.claude/adr/ADR-038-session-graph-continuity.md +243 -0
  41. package/.claude/adr/ADR-039-skill-marketplace-protocol.md +170 -0
  42. package/.claude/adr/ADR-040-AMEND-2-credential-blocking.md +390 -0
  43. package/.claude/adr/ADR-040-live-adapter-activation-contract.md +285 -0
  44. package/.claude/adr/ADR-041-transition-log-convention.md +272 -0
  45. package/.claude/adr/ADR-042-AMEND-1-read-only-mcp-tools-expansion.md +214 -0
  46. package/.claude/adr/ADR-042-mcp-server-contract.md +727 -0
  47. package/.claude/adr/ADR-043-soc2-audit-trail-mapping.md +503 -0
  48. package/.claude/adr/ADR-044-formal-verification-pilot.md +505 -0
  49. package/.claude/adr/ADR-045-policy-as-code-engine.md +705 -0
  50. package/.claude/adr/ADR-046-deterministic-replay.md +167 -0
  51. package/.claude/adr/ADR-047-predictive-budgeting.md +213 -0
  52. package/.claude/adr/ADR-048-cross-plan-memory.md +227 -0
  53. package/.claude/adr/ADR-049-policy-engine-dual-path-deprecation.md +96 -0
  54. package/.claude/adr/ADR-049a-worktree-orchestration-policy.md +414 -0
  55. package/.claude/adr/ADR-050-native-subagents-dual-rail.md +165 -0
  56. package/.claude/adr/ADR-051-skill-reference-expanded-trust-boundary.md +282 -0
  57. package/.claude/adr/ADR-052-multi-model-dispatch-by-role.md +444 -0
  58. package/.claude/adr/ADR-053-sentinel-hmac-deferred.md +227 -0
  59. package/.claude/adr/ADR-054-AMEND-1-anthropic-admin-key-tier.md +131 -0
  60. package/.claude/adr/ADR-054-github-token-rotation.md +111 -0
  61. package/.claude/adr/ADR-055-AMEND-1-spool-writer-async-drain.md +170 -0
  62. package/.claude/adr/ADR-055-AMEND-2-chain-reset-marker.md +126 -0
  63. package/.claude/adr/ADR-055-AMEND-3-opportunistic-drain-nonblocking.md +183 -0
  64. package/.claude/adr/ADR-055-audit-log-hmac-chain.md +264 -0
  65. package/.claude/adr/ADR-056-hook-lifecycle-expansion.md +261 -0
  66. package/.claude/adr/ADR-057-output-scan-redaction.md +268 -0
  67. package/.claude/adr/ADR-058-brainstorm-gate-and-two-pass-review.md +240 -0
  68. package/.claude/adr/ADR-059-skill-bootstrap-env-knob.md +204 -0
  69. package/.claude/adr/ADR-060-curated-skill-import-pipeline.md +464 -0
  70. package/.claude/adr/ADR-061-runtime-cost-streaming.md +171 -0
  71. package/.claude/adr/ADR-062-AMEND-1-rag-conditional-default-on-supersedes-opt-in.md +232 -0
  72. package/.claude/adr/ADR-062-rag-sidecar-mcp-opt-in.md +231 -0
  73. package/.claude/adr/ADR-063-agent-eval-empirical-dispatch-validation.md +609 -0
  74. package/.claude/adr/ADR-064-dynamic-tier-policy-learned-dispatch.md +288 -0
  75. package/.claude/adr/ADR-065-audit-event-naming-convention.md +185 -0
  76. package/.claude/adr/ADR-066-context-mode-orthogonal-to-manifest.md +92 -0
  77. package/.claude/adr/ADR-067-ceo-model-downshift-static-routing.md +219 -0
  78. package/.claude/adr/ADR-069-wondelai-skills-import-refused.md +183 -0
  79. package/.claude/adr/ADR-070-audit-emit-package-layout.md +228 -0
  80. package/.claude/adr/ADR-071-benchmark-comparison-methodology.md +209 -0
  81. package/.claude/adr/ADR-072-test-discovery-via-conftest.md +184 -0
  82. package/.claude/adr/ADR-073-semver-bump-criteria-sprint-32.md +209 -0
  83. package/.claude/adr/ADR-074-sprint-32-phase-3-b1-refused.md +320 -0
  84. package/.claude/adr/ADR-075-sprint-32-phase-5-b5-benchmark-refused.md +250 -0
  85. package/.claude/adr/ADR-076-sprint-32-final-closure.md +218 -0
  86. package/.claude/adr/ADR-077-2026-04-24-webfetch-injection-incident.md +203 -0
  87. package/.claude/adr/ADR-078-sentinel-cosign-clarification.md +295 -0
  88. package/.claude/adr/ADR-079-prompt-sha-salt-hmac-impact.md +221 -0
  89. package/.claude/adr/ADR-080-rail-anomaly-h4-defense-in-depth.md +1143 -0
  90. package/.claude/adr/ADR-081-token-as-time-unit.md +272 -0
  91. package/.claude/adr/ADR-082-l7c-mitigation-default-on.md +240 -0
  92. package/.claude/adr/ADR-083-mcp-injection-scanner.md +225 -0
  93. package/.claude/adr/ADR-084-multi-adapter-refused-claude-only.md +152 -0
  94. package/.claude/adr/ADR-085-framework-landscape-claude-only.md +183 -0
  95. package/.claude/adr/ADR-086-checkpointing-refused.md +124 -0
  96. package/.claude/adr/ADR-087-AMEND-1-otel-consume-native-opt-in.md +217 -0
  97. package/.claude/adr/ADR-087-otel-emit-refused.md +136 -0
  98. package/.claude/adr/ADR-088-guardrails-library-refused.md +128 -0
  99. package/.claude/adr/ADR-089-sec-cluster-disposition.md +182 -0
  100. package/.claude/adr/ADR-090-framework-activation-defaults.md +217 -0
  101. package/.claude/adr/ADR-091-dogfood-validation-deferred.md +128 -0
  102. package/.claude/adr/ADR-092-plan-closure-honest-deferral.md +165 -0
  103. package/.claude/adr/ADR-093-refused-adr-moratorium.md +181 -0
  104. package/.claude/adr/ADR-094-claude-sdk-compat-version-pinning.md +160 -0
  105. package/.claude/adr/ADR-095-calendar-gate-retraction.md +202 -0
  106. package/.claude/adr/ADR-096-vibecoder-only-by-design.md +215 -0
  107. package/.claude/adr/ADR-097-function-length-advisory-permanent.md +186 -0
  108. package/.claude/adr/ADR-098-ceo-boot-audit-emit-register.md +251 -0
  109. package/.claude/adr/ADR-099-changesets-adoption.md +245 -0
  110. package/.claude/adr/ADR-100-trusted-dependencies-re-affirm.md +208 -0
  111. package/.claude/adr/ADR-101-replay-redact-helper.md +106 -0
  112. package/.claude/adr/ADR-102-mcp-introspection-extends-042.md +165 -0
  113. package/.claude/adr/ADR-103-calendar-gate-final-purge.md +121 -0
  114. package/.claude/adr/ADR-104-AMEND-1-aek-dated-promotion-criteria.md +338 -0
  115. package/.claude/adr/ADR-104-adaptive-execution-kernel-advisory.md +210 -0
  116. package/.claude/adr/ADR-105-multi-llm-coordinated-supersede.md +126 -0
  117. package/.claude/adr/ADR-106-codex-mcp-adapter-contract.md +153 -0
  118. package/.claude/adr/ADR-107-pair-rail-mandatory-l2-plus.md +189 -0
  119. package/.claude/adr/ADR-108-cross-llm-veto-floor.md +129 -0
  120. package/.claude/adr/ADR-109-codex-skill-rehash-protocol.md +104 -0
  121. package/.claude/adr/ADR-110-codex-pretool-enforcement.md +94 -0
  122. package/.claude/adr/ADR-111-locked-corpus-governance.md +191 -0
  123. package/.claude/adr/ADR-112-grandfather-cap-scope-clarification.md +192 -0
  124. package/.claude/adr/ADR-113-plan-084-canonical-guard-extension.md +59 -0
  125. package/.claude/adr/ADR-114-codex-egress-redaction-symmetry.md +72 -0
  126. package/.claude/adr/ADR-115-post-sota-maintenance-mode.md +152 -0
  127. package/.claude/adr/ADR-116-AMEND-1-kernel-extension-v2.md +640 -0
  128. package/.claude/adr/ADR-116-kernel-hard-deny-tier-0-extension.md +465 -0
  129. package/.claude/adr/ADR-117-adr-id-collision-rename-policy.md +279 -0
  130. package/.claude/adr/ADR-118-AMEND-1-phase-c-enforcing-flip.md +191 -0
  131. package/.claude/adr/ADR-118-god-mode-auto-usable-state.md +338 -0
  132. package/.claude/adr/ADR-119-sentinel-unlock-contract.md +133 -0
  133. package/.claude/adr/ADR-120-pii-core-promotion.md +280 -0
  134. package/.claude/adr/ADR-121-sentinel-signers-rotation-policy.md +434 -0
  135. package/.claude/adr/ADR-122-dpop-mcp-bearer-replay-defense.md +232 -0
  136. package/.claude/adr/ADR-123-streaming-adapter-canonical-source.md +130 -0
  137. package/.claude/adr/ADR-124-post-audit-sota-execution-mode.md +362 -0
  138. package/.claude/adr/ADR-125-risk-tiered-defaulting-doctrine.md +355 -0
  139. package/.claude/adr/ADR-126-governed-sidecar-capability-model.md +509 -0
  140. package/.claude/adr/ADR-127-pair-rail-advisory-promotion.md +218 -0
  141. package/.claude/adr/ADR-128-c2-vector-memory-capability-class.md +380 -0
  142. package/.claude/adr/ADR-129-AMEND-1-key-floor-waiver-lift.md +249 -0
  143. package/.claude/adr/ADR-129-c1-crypto-capability-class.md +289 -0
  144. package/.claude/adr/ADR-131-c5-dev-tools-capability-class.md +215 -0
  145. package/.claude/adr/ADR-132-goap-advisory-planning-doctrine.md +333 -0
  146. package/.claude/adr/ADR-133-autonomous-loop-opt-in-capability-doctrine.md +440 -0
  147. package/.claude/adr/ADR-135-AMEND-1-write-mode-trust-boundary.md +457 -0
  148. package/.claude/adr/ADR-135-AMEND-2-write-mode-activation.md +175 -0
  149. package/.claude/adr/ADR-135-federation-contract-mvp.md +253 -0
  150. package/.claude/adr/ADR-136-AMEND-1-workflow-primitive-adoption.md +139 -0
  151. package/.claude/adr/ADR-136-workflow-engine-doctrine.md +155 -0
  152. package/.claude/adr/ADR-137-skill-priority-stack-decision.md +162 -0
  153. package/.claude/adr/ADR-138-ac-format-priority-and-story-anchor.md +149 -0
  154. package/.claude/adr/ADR-139-coverage-doctrine-tiered.md +133 -0
  155. package/.claude/adr/ADR-140-receiving-review-doctrine.md +136 -0
  156. package/.claude/adr/ADR-141-reduce-protocol.md +124 -0
  157. package/.claude/adr/ADR-142-opus-4-8-model-bump.md +116 -0
  158. package/.claude/adr/ADR-143-git-hook-bypass-guard.md +166 -0
  159. package/.claude/adr/ADR-144-subagent-model-tiering-frontmatter.md +111 -0
  160. package/.claude/adr/ADR-145-cross-model-review-persona-demand-modality.md +103 -0
  161. package/.claude/adr/ADR-146-adversary-review-hook.md +122 -0
  162. package/.claude/adr/ADR-147-eval-harness-doctrine.md +109 -0
  163. package/.claude/adr/ADR-148-canonical-pricing-source.md +123 -0
  164. package/.claude/adr/ADR-149-model-id-allowlist.md +196 -0
  165. package/.claude/adr/ADR-150-commit-signing-policy.md +12 -0
  166. package/.claude/adr/ADR-151-fan-plan-advisory-bridge.md +178 -0
  167. package/.claude/adr/ADR-152-claude-md-decomposition.md +262 -0
  168. package/.claude/adr/ADR-153-compaction-continuity.md +141 -0
  169. package/.claude/adr/ADR-154-updatedinput-single-rewriter.md +68 -0
  170. package/.claude/adr/ADR-155-install-baseline-manifest.md +66 -0
  171. package/.claude/adr/ADR-156-constitution-sync-cascade.md +122 -0
  172. package/.claude/adr/README.md +392 -0
  173. package/.claude/adversary.md +116 -0
  174. package/.claude/agent-metrics.md +101 -0
  175. package/.claude/agents/_dispatch.md +30 -0
  176. package/.claude/agents/_probe_architect.md +45 -0
  177. package/.claude/agents/_probe_canonical_edit.md +46 -0
  178. package/.claude/agents/_probe_missing_skill.md +42 -0
  179. package/.claude/agents/code-reviewer.md +166 -0
  180. package/.claude/agents/devops.md +114 -0
  181. package/.claude/agents/identity-trust-architect.md +234 -0
  182. package/.claude/agents/incident-commander.md +285 -0
  183. package/.claude/agents/llm-finops-architect.md +265 -0
  184. package/.claude/agents/performance-engineer.md +148 -0
  185. package/.claude/agents/qa-architect.md +167 -0
  186. package/.claude/agents/security-engineer.md +192 -0
  187. package/.claude/agents/threat-detection-engineer.md +238 -0
  188. package/.claude/benchmarks/_schemas/judge-prompt.md +26 -0
  189. package/.claude/benchmarks/_schemas/judge-rubric-example.json +11 -0
  190. package/.claude/benchmarks/_schemas/judge-rubric.yaml +39 -0
  191. package/.claude/benchmarks/calibration-grades.jsonl +6 -0
  192. package/.claude/benchmarks/human-sample-calibration.md +232 -0
  193. package/.claude/benchmarks/judge-rotation-schedule.md +61 -0
  194. package/.claude/benchmarks/retrieval-judgment-set.yaml +194 -0
  195. package/.claude/benchmarks/tests/test_retrieval_recall_gate.py +330 -0
  196. package/.claude/commands/agent-budget.md +105 -0
  197. package/.claude/commands/architect.md +130 -0
  198. package/.claude/commands/audit-page.md +149 -0
  199. package/.claude/commands/audit-tokens.md +89 -0
  200. package/.claude/commands/ceo-boot.md +118 -0
  201. package/.claude/commands/ceo-info.md +71 -0
  202. package/.claude/commands/debate.md +258 -0
  203. package/.claude/commands/effort.md +99 -0
  204. package/.claude/commands/fan-plan.md +129 -0
  205. package/.claude/commands/goap.md +163 -0
  206. package/.claude/commands/lesson-review.md +66 -0
  207. package/.claude/commands/memory-scratchpad.md +100 -0
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  218. package/.claude/data/audit-registry.golden.txt +306 -0
  219. package/.claude/data/canonical_models.json +1030 -0
  220. package/.claude/data/confidence-gate-class-tiers.json +24 -0
  221. package/.claude/data/cookbook_patterns.json +139 -0
  222. package/.claude/data/federation/enabled.md +34 -0
  223. package/.claude/data/federation/lan-enabled.md +38 -0
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  248. package/.claude/eval/tasks/t10_binary_search.py +58 -0
  249. package/.claude/frontend-team.md +202 -0
  250. package/.claude/governance/README.md +37 -0
  251. package/.claude/governance/audit_tokens_allowlist.json +37 -0
  252. package/.claude/governance/codex-cli-binary-sha256.txt +32 -0
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  254. package/.claude/governance/function-length-grandfather.yaml +2095 -0
  255. package/.claude/governance/governance-waivers.yaml +28 -0
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@@ -0,0 +1,293 @@
1
+ ---
2
+ name: experiment-tracker
3
+ description: >
4
+ Product and growth experiment lifecycle manager covering hypothesis
5
+ registry, experiment-design quality assurance, in-flight monitoring,
6
+ results synthesis, learnings library, and experiment-fatigue detection.
7
+ Operationalises growth-hacker experiment discipline at PM cadence,
8
+ enforcing power analysis, guardrail metrics, pre-committed kill-switch
9
+ criteria, and mutual-exclusion configuration. Use when a task involves
10
+ designing or reviewing an A/B test, managing concurrent experiment
11
+ portfolios, synthesising statistical results, or building an
12
+ organisational learnings archive for growth and product teams.
13
+ owner: Priya Nallan (Experiment Tracker, domain persona)
14
+ tier: domain:project-management
15
+ scope_tags: [experiment-tracking, hypothesis-registry, experiment-design-qa, results-synthesis, learnings-library]
16
+ inspired_by:
17
+ - source: msitarzewski/agency-agents/project-management/project-management-experiment-tracker.md@783f6a72bfd7f3135700ac273c619d92821b419a
18
+ license: MIT
19
+ relationship: structural_inspiration
20
+ authored_by: ceo-orchestration framework
21
+ authored_at: 2026-05-07
22
+ # --- smart-loading fields (PLAN-083 Wave 0b sub-agent 0.7c) ---
23
+ domain: project-management
24
+ priority: 8
25
+ risk_class: low
26
+ stack: []
27
+ context_budget_tokens: 600
28
+ inactive_but_retained: true
29
+ repo_profile_binding:
30
+ frontend: {active: false, priority: 10}
31
+ engine: {active: false, priority: 10}
32
+ fintech: {active: false, priority: 10}
33
+ trading-readonly: {active: false, priority: 10}
34
+ generic: {active: false, priority: 10}
35
+ activation_triggers: []
36
+ # --- K1 paths: native file-touch activation (PLAN-135 W3 unit k1a) ---
37
+ paths:
38
+ - "**/experiments/**"
39
+ - "**/ab-tests/**"
40
+ - "**/hypotheses/**"
41
+ - "**/learnings/**"
42
+ ---
43
+
44
+ # Experiment Tracker
45
+
46
+ ## Cardinal Rule
47
+
48
+ An experiment without a pre-registered hypothesis, primary metric, and
49
+ sample-size calculation is not an experiment — it is a post-hoc
50
+ rationalisation waiting to happen.
51
+ Every decision to ship, kill, or iterate must trace back to criteria
52
+ committed before the first data point was collected.
53
+ Retroactively changing success criteria to fit observed data invalidates
54
+ the inference and corrupts the learnings library.
55
+
56
+ ## Fail-Fast Rule
57
+
58
+ Stop the design if the team cannot state a falsifiable hypothesis in one
59
+ sentence before any implementation begins.
60
+ If no primary metric can be isolated from confounders introduced by
61
+ concurrent experiments, resolve the mutual-exclusion configuration first.
62
+ Launching under ambiguous assignment is a contamination event, not an
63
+ acceptable risk.
64
+
65
+ ## When to Apply
66
+
67
+ Apply this skill when the task is one or more of:
68
+
69
+ - Registering or reviewing a new experiment in the hypothesis registry.
70
+ - Conducting a design-QA gate before experiment launch.
71
+ - Monitoring an in-flight experiment and deciding whether to act on
72
+ interim data.
73
+ - Synthesising results and computing statistical validity after runtime.
74
+ - Adding or retrieving entries from the organisational learnings library.
75
+ - Auditing the experiment portfolio for fatigue, overlap, or mutual-
76
+ exclusion violations.
77
+
78
+ ## Hypothesis Registry
79
+
80
+ The registry is the single source of truth for all experiments, past and
81
+ present. No experiment runs without a registry entry.
82
+
83
+ Minimum required fields per entry:
84
+
85
+ | Field | Requirement |
86
+ |---|---|
87
+ | `id` | Unique slug: `EXP-<YYYY>-<NNN>` |
88
+ | `hypothesis` | One sentence: "If [change], then [metric] will [direction] by [magnitude] because [mechanism]." |
89
+ | `primary_metric` | One metric with pre-committed success threshold |
90
+ | `guardrail_metrics` | At least one metric that triggers abort if it degrades beyond threshold |
91
+ | `sample_size_per_variant` | Computed from power analysis (see Experiment-Design QA) |
92
+ | `min_runtime_days` | Calendar floor; cannot be shortened post-launch |
93
+ | `owner` | Named accountable PM or analyst |
94
+ | `status` | `draft` / `approved` / `running` / `complete` / `archived` |
95
+
96
+ Entries must be committed before engineering implementation begins.
97
+ A hypothesis amended after launch is a new experiment; the original entry
98
+ must be archived as superseded and a new entry opened.
99
+
100
+ ## Experiment-Design QA
101
+
102
+ The design-QA gate is mandatory before any experiment transitions from
103
+ `draft` to `approved`.
104
+
105
+ Power analysis requirements:
106
+
107
+ 1. Baseline conversion rate or metric mean established from production
108
+ data covering at least fourteen days with no overlapping test traffic.
109
+ 2. Minimum detectable effect (MDE) set to the smallest business-meaningful
110
+ change, not the smallest statistically detectable change.
111
+ 3. Power ≥ 0.80; significance level α ≤ 0.05. Two-sided test unless a
112
+ directional hypothesis is pre-registered with written justification.
113
+ 4. Sample size per variant computed from (1), (2), and (3).
114
+ 5. Estimated runtime derived from daily eligible-traffic volume; must
115
+ cover at least one full weekly cycle.
116
+
117
+ Additional gate criteria:
118
+
119
+ - Guardrail metrics defined with abort thresholds (absolute or relative
120
+ degradation, not directional preference).
121
+ - Kill-switch criteria stated explicitly: which metric moving in which
122
+ direction by what magnitude triggers immediate halt.
123
+ - Segmentation pre-defined if segment-level analysis is planned;
124
+ post-hoc segmentation without pre-registration inflates false-discovery
125
+ rate.
126
+ - Mutual-exclusion configuration verified: no user can be simultaneously
127
+ enrolled in another experiment whose treatment affects the same
128
+ interaction path.
129
+
130
+ An experiment that fails any gate criterion must return to `draft` with
131
+ written remediation notes. Partial approval is not permitted.
132
+
133
+ ## In-Flight Monitoring
134
+
135
+ Monitoring discipline prevents peeking bias, which inflates the false-
136
+ positive rate far above the nominal α.
137
+
138
+ Daily checks (automated dashboard):
139
+
140
+ - Sample ratio mismatch (SRM): assignment counts per variant must match
141
+ the configured split ratio within a tolerance of ±1 percentage point.
142
+ An SRM greater than this tolerance indicates instrumentation failure
143
+ and requires a pause.
144
+ - Guardrail metric status: alert if any guardrail metric moves beyond
145
+ its abort threshold.
146
+ - Data-pipeline health: ingestion lag, deduplication completeness.
147
+
148
+ Weekly checks (analyst review):
149
+
150
+ - Primary metric trajectory — for situational awareness only.
151
+ - Estimated days remaining to planned runtime.
152
+
153
+ Prohibited actions during runtime:
154
+
155
+ - **No peek-and-decide.** Calling a winner or loser before the
156
+ pre-committed runtime and sample size are reached, even if p < 0.05,
157
+ is invalid inference. The only exception is a guardrail abort.
158
+ - **No runtime extension without re-power.** If the primary metric has
159
+ not moved after the planned runtime, a neutral result is a valid
160
+ result. Extending to "give it more time" without a formal protocol
161
+ (e.g. sequential testing with pre-specified extension rules) introduces
162
+ optional stopping bias.
163
+ - **No treatment changes post-launch.** Any change to variant
164
+ configuration after launch creates a mixed-treatment artefact; archive
165
+ the experiment and open a new registry entry.
166
+
167
+ ## Results Synthesis
168
+
169
+ Statistical analysis requirements:
170
+
171
+ 1. Run the pre-committed test (t-test, z-test, Mann-Whitney, or other
172
+ as registered at design-QA time). Changing the test post-hoc requires
173
+ written justification and peer sign-off.
174
+ 2. Report effect size and confidence interval alongside p-value.
175
+ A p-value alone is not a results summary.
176
+ 3. Assess practical significance: an effect that is statistically
177
+ significant but smaller than the MDE is a neutral result for shipping
178
+ decisions.
179
+ 4. Per-segment analysis is valid only for segments pre-registered at
180
+ design time. Flag any post-hoc segment finding as exploratory and
181
+ hypothesis-generating, never confirmatory.
182
+ 5. If multiple primary metrics were registered (rare — requires written
183
+ justification at design-QA), apply Bonferroni or Benjamini-Hochberg
184
+ correction and report adjusted p-values.
185
+
186
+ Results summary format (required for registry update):
187
+
188
+ ```
189
+ Experiment: <id> — <name>
190
+ Decision: SHIP | KILL | ITERATE (with one-line rationale)
191
+ Primary metric: [observed delta] [CI lower, upper], p=[value]
192
+ Effect vs MDE: [above / at / below] threshold
193
+ Guardrail metrics: [all PASS | list any triggered]
194
+ Segment heterogeneity: [notable findings or NONE]
195
+ ```
196
+
197
+ ## Learnings Library
198
+
199
+ Every experiment with status `complete` must produce a learnings artefact
200
+ before the entry is archived.
201
+
202
+ Required fields:
203
+
204
+ | Field | Content |
205
+ |---|---|
206
+ | `hypothesis_tested` | Verbatim from registry |
207
+ | `result` | CONFIRMED / REFUTED / INCONCLUSIVE (with effect and CI) |
208
+ | `decision` | SHIP / KILL / ITERATE |
209
+ | `causal_mechanism` | Proposed explanation for the observed effect or null |
210
+ | `follow_up_hypotheses` | Zero or more new registry-ready hypotheses generated |
211
+ | `searchable_tags` | Domain, surface, user-segment, metric-family |
212
+
213
+ The library must be searchable by domain and metric family so that future
214
+ experiment designers can retrieve prior evidence before registering
215
+ similar hypotheses. Duplicate-hypothesis detection is a primary library
216
+ use case: registering a hypothesis already tested with a REFUTED result
217
+ wastes capacity and inflates the portfolio false-positive rate via
218
+ independent-rediscovery bias.
219
+
220
+ ## Experiment-Fatigue Detection
221
+
222
+ Experiment fatigue occurs when users are enrolled in enough simultaneous
223
+ experiments that their behaviour is distorted by treatment overload rather
224
+ than by any individual treatment.
225
+
226
+ Controls:
227
+
228
+ - **Per-customer experiment-volume cap.** The maximum number of
229
+ simultaneous experiment enrolments per user is defined in the
230
+ experiment platform configuration. Default ceiling: three concurrent
231
+ enrolments per user across all surfaces. Raising the cap requires
232
+ owner sign-off and a written justification in the platform config
233
+ history.
234
+ - **Mutual-exclusion layers.** Experiments affecting the same interaction
235
+ surface (checkout flow, onboarding sequence, pricing display) must be
236
+ placed in mutually exclusive layers. Users are assigned to at most one
237
+ experiment per layer.
238
+ - **Holdout groups.** Maintain a global holdout (minimum 5% of
239
+ eligible traffic) never enrolled in any experiment. Use for cumulative
240
+ effect measurement and as a sanity check on the experiment platform
241
+ itself.
242
+ - **Portfolio review cadence.** At least once per quarter, review active
243
+ experiments for layer saturation and cap violations before approving
244
+ new launches.
245
+
246
+ ## Decision Discipline
247
+
248
+ Decision criteria must be committed at design-QA time and must not be
249
+ changed after launch.
250
+
251
+ Decision logic:
252
+
253
+ | Condition | Decision |
254
+ |---|---|
255
+ | Primary metric ≥ MDE, p ≤ α, no guardrail triggered | SHIP |
256
+ | Primary metric < MDE regardless of p-value | KILL or ITERATE |
257
+ | Guardrail metric triggered during runtime | KILL (immediate) |
258
+ | SRM detected and unresolved | INCONCLUSIVE — invalidate, re-run |
259
+ | Primary metric inconclusive, follow-up hypothesis available | ITERATE (new registry entry) |
260
+
261
+ ITERATE is not a hedge against a KILL decision. An experiment whose
262
+ primary metric moved in the wrong direction is a KILL; learnings from
263
+ it may inform a new hypothesis, but the original experiment is over.
264
+
265
+ ## Anti-patterns
266
+
267
+ | Anti-pattern | Why it fails | Correct approach |
268
+ |---|---|---|
269
+ | Peek-and-extend | Multiple looks inflate false-positive rate above α; stopping when p < 0.05 is peeking even once | Pre-commit runtime and sample size; use sequential testing protocol if early stopping is required |
270
+ | No power calculation | Underpowered experiments produce inconclusive results at planned runtime; overpowered experiments waste traffic longer than needed | Run power analysis at design time using production baseline and pre-committed MDE |
271
+ | Missing guardrail metrics | A winning primary metric can mask user-experience degradation (latency, error rate, engagement drop) | Define at least one guardrail per experiment; block approval gate until present |
272
+ | Overlapping experiments uncontrolled | Unresolved mutual-exclusion means measured effects contain noise from multiple treatments | Verify layer assignment and mutual-exclusion configuration before approval |
273
+ | Library not updated | Organisational knowledge is lost; future teams re-run refuted experiments | Learnings artefact is mandatory before archiving; treat missing artefacts as open work items |
274
+ | Post-hoc segmentation | Splitting results across unanticipated segments inflates false-discovery rate and generates spurious findings | Pre-register segments; label any post-hoc segment finding as exploratory only |
275
+ | Retroactive criteria change | Changing success thresholds after seeing results invalidates the inference and erodes stakeholder trust | Treat criteria as immutable after design-QA approval; amendments require a new experiment entry |
276
+
277
+ ## Cross-References
278
+
279
+ - `domains/marketing-global/skills/growth-hacker` — upstream experiment
280
+ design discipline and growth-loop hypothesis patterns that feed the
281
+ hypothesis registry.
282
+ - `domains/community/skills/agent-evaluation` — evaluation methodology
283
+ applicable to model or algorithm A/B experiments (treatment assignment,
284
+ scoring rubric, inter-rater reliability).
285
+ - `domains/community/skills/advanced-evaluation` — extended statistical
286
+ evaluation protocols (effect-size families, sequential testing, causal
287
+ inference) for complex or high-stakes experiments.
288
+
289
+ ## ADR Anchors
290
+
291
+ - **ADR-058** — brainstorm gate and two-pass adversarial review; applies
292
+ to experiment design documents produced by this skill before the
293
+ design-QA gate is opened.
@@ -0,0 +1,312 @@
1
+ ---
2
+ name: project-shepherd
3
+ description: |
4
+ Operational steward discipline for accountable execution across functional
5
+ teams — distinct from strategic program management. Covers dependency
6
+ graph maintenance (cross-team, named owners, per-dep go-live dates), risk
7
+ registry with per-risk owners and action cadence, Red/Yellow/Green status
8
+ communication without sugarcoating, 24-hour blocker-response rule with
9
+ documented escalation paths, and weekly stale-item audit to enforce the
10
+ never-let-it-rot rule. Use when: a multi-team deliverable has no single
11
+ accountable owner per work item; blockers are accumulating without clear
12
+ next action; status is reported in aggregate without per-stream signal;
13
+ or a project has drifted with no one driving resolution.
14
+ owner: Project Shepherd (domain persona)
15
+ tier: domain:project-management
16
+ scope_tags: [project-shepherd, dependency-tracking, risk-registry, status-communication, blocker-removal]
17
+ inspired_by:
18
+ - source: msitarzewski/agency-agents/project-management/project-management-project-shepherd.md@783f6a72bfd7f3135700ac273c619d92821b419a
19
+ license: MIT
20
+ relationship: structural_inspiration
21
+ authored_by: ceo-orchestration framework
22
+ authored_at: 2026-05-07
23
+ # --- smart-loading fields (PLAN-083 Wave 0b sub-agent 0.7c) ---
24
+ domain: project-management
25
+ priority: 8
26
+ risk_class: low
27
+ stack: []
28
+ context_budget_tokens: 600
29
+ inactive_but_retained: true
30
+ repo_profile_binding:
31
+ frontend: {active: false, priority: 10}
32
+ engine: {active: false, priority: 10}
33
+ fintech: {active: false, priority: 10}
34
+ trading-readonly: {active: false, priority: 10}
35
+ generic: {active: false, priority: 10}
36
+ activation_triggers: []
37
+ # --- K1 paths: native file-touch activation (PLAN-135 W3 unit k1a) ---
38
+ paths:
39
+ - "**/risk-registry/**"
40
+ - "**/status-reports/**"
41
+ - "**/project-plans/**"
42
+ ---
43
+
44
+ # Project Shepherd
45
+
46
+ ## Cardinal Rule
47
+
48
+ Every active work item has a named, accountable owner — a single person,
49
+ not a team or a channel. Collective ownership produces collective inaction.
50
+ When no named owner exists for a deliverable, dependency, blocker, or risk,
51
+ the shepherd assigns one before any other work proceeds. An unowned item
52
+ is an invisible item; invisible items drift until they become crises.
53
+
54
+ ## Fail-Fast Rule
55
+
56
+ Stop and surface a structured failure when any of the following is true:
57
+
58
+ - A blocker has had no response from the accountable party for more than
59
+ 24 hours and no escalation path has been activated.
60
+ - A risk row in the registry has no named owner and no mitigation step.
61
+ - A dependency is documented as a list entry with no go-live date and no
62
+ named counterpart owner from the external team.
63
+ - Status for any stream has not been updated within the agreed cadence
64
+ and the shepherd has not been notified of an exception.
65
+ - A stale-item audit has been skipped for more than 7 calendar days.
66
+
67
+ Do not proceed as if these conditions are acceptable. Surface the gap,
68
+ assign resolution, and document the timestamp.
69
+
70
+ ## When to Apply
71
+
72
+ Apply this skill when:
73
+
74
+ - A feature or initiative spans two or more functional teams with
75
+ interdependent deliverables.
76
+ - A project lacks explicit per-deliverable accountability and blockers
77
+ are accumulating.
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+ - Status reporting is aggregate ("we're roughly on track") rather than
79
+ per-stream signal with specific cause for non-Green state.
80
+ - A previously unblocked project has gone quiet with no update.
81
+ - Dependency handoffs across teams lack documented go-live dates.
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+ - Risk items are recorded but not reviewed on a defined cadence.
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+
84
+ Do not apply this skill to single-team execution with a clear product
85
+ owner and no external dependencies. Route escalations that require
86
+ resourcing or scope authority to a senior program manager or equivalent
87
+ decision holder — the shepherd's role is operational stewardship, not
88
+ executive authority.
89
+
90
+ ## Accountable Execution Frame
91
+
92
+ Per-deliverable accountability is the foundation. Every deliverable in
93
+ the project must map to exactly one named owner with defined criteria
94
+ for completion and a committed date.
95
+
96
+ RACI per deliverable:
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+
98
+ - **Responsible (R):** the single person who produces the deliverable.
99
+ One person only — never a team name or a squad alias.
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+ - **Accountable (A):** the person who commits to the outcome and signs
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+ off on completion. In small teams R and A are the same person; in
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+ matrix organizations they differ and both must be named.
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+ - **Consulted (C):** people whose input shapes the deliverable. Named
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+ individually, not by role category.
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+ - **Informed (I):** people who receive status on completion. Named or
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+ described by distribution list with explicit cadence.
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+
108
+ Collective ownership is prohibited. A deliverable assigned to "the
109
+ backend team" has no owner. The shepherd converts every collective
110
+ assignment to a named individual before accepting the RACI as valid.
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+
112
+ Completion criteria must be binary — either done or not done — with no
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+ ambiguous intermediate state. "In review" is not done. "Deployed to
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+ staging" is not done if production deployment is the agreed criterion.
115
+
116
+ ## Dependency Tracking
117
+
118
+ Dependencies are tracked as a directed graph, not a flat list. Each
119
+ dependency node must carry:
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+
121
+ - **From:** the deliverable or team that depends on the output.
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+ - **To:** the team or system providing the output.
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+ - **Named owner (To-side):** the individual at the providing team
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+ accountable for the output. "The platform team" is not an owner.
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+ - **Go-live date:** the committed date the dependency output is available.
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+ If not yet committed, the dependency is flagged UNCONFIRMED and the
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+ shepherd has an open action to obtain a commitment.
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+ - **Blocker status:** None / At-Risk / Blocked.
129
+
130
+ Never assume a dependency is resolved because a conversation occurred.
131
+ Resolutions are confirmed when the output is delivered, not when the
132
+ intention is stated.
133
+
134
+ Cross-team dependencies require a single point-of-contact per team pair.
135
+ Threads involving multiple contacts from one team without a designated
136
+ lead produce coordination overhead without accountability. The shepherd
137
+ names the lead for each team-to-team interface before execution begins.
138
+
139
+ ## Risk Registry
140
+
141
+ Every project maintains a live risk registry. Each row must contain:
142
+
143
+ | Field | Required Content |
144
+ |-------|-----------------|
145
+ | Risk ID | Sequential (R-01, R-02, ...) |
146
+ | Description | One to two sentences; specific to this project, not generic |
147
+ | Likelihood | Low / Medium / High with one-sentence rationale |
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+ | Impact | Quantified where possible: delay in calendar days, deliverable scope reduction, or cost range |
149
+ | Owner | Named individual responsible for the mitigation action |
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+ | Mitigation | Specific action with a due date — not "monitor" or "escalate if needed" |
151
+ | Review cadence | Explicit: weekly / biweekly / ad-hoc with trigger condition |
152
+ | Status | Open / Mitigated / Closed / Escalated |
153
+
154
+ Risks without a named owner are invalid rows. Risks whose mitigation
155
+ action is "monitor" are invalid rows — monitoring is a trigger condition,
156
+ not a mitigation. If no mitigation exists, document that explicitly as
157
+ "No mitigation identified — risk accepted by [name] on [date]."
158
+
159
+ Review cadence is mandatory. Risks do not age out of the registry by
160
+ default; they are closed only when the condition that would trigger the
161
+ risk can no longer occur, or when explicitly accepted by an accountable
162
+ stakeholder with a documented rationale.
163
+
164
+ ## Status Communication
165
+
166
+ Status uses three states — Red, Yellow, Green — applied per stream, not
167
+ per project aggregate. Aggregate project status is derived from stream
168
+ statuses; it is never set independently.
169
+
170
+ - **Green:** the stream is on track to meet committed dates and scope
171
+ with no known blockers or risks requiring action this period.
172
+ - **Yellow:** the stream has a risk, a dependency concern, or a minor
173
+ slip that is being actively managed with a recovery plan. Specific
174
+ cause is required; "some challenges" is not a Yellow status.
175
+ - **Red:** the stream cannot meet committed dates or scope without an
176
+ intervention — a scope change, a resource addition, or a date
177
+ adjustment. The Red status always includes a proposed path to recovery
178
+ and the decision owner for that path.
179
+
180
+ Never sugarcoat. A stream is not Green because the team is working hard.
181
+ A stream is Green because the committed outcome will be met. When status
182
+ is uncertain, Yellow is correct; Red-to-Yellow downgrade requires the
183
+ same specificity as a Red status.
184
+
185
+ Cadence by stakeholder tier:
186
+
187
+ - **Working team:** daily async update on active blockers and open
188
+ dependency actions; synchronous only when a decision is required.
189
+ - **Functional leads:** weekly status with per-stream signal and
190
+ exception items only.
191
+ - **Executives or sponsors:** biweekly or milestone-driven; summary with
192
+ decisions required, not delivery details.
193
+
194
+ Status is pushed, not pulled. Stakeholders should not need to ask for
195
+ an update; the shepherd publishes on cadence.
196
+
197
+ ## Blocker Removal Protocol
198
+
199
+ A blocker is any impediment that prevents a named owner from progressing
200
+ a deliverable. Blockers are documented with:
201
+
202
+ - **Blocker ID:** sequential per stream (B-01, B-02, ...).
203
+ - **Opened:** timestamp when the blocker was identified.
204
+ - **Owner:** the person responsible for resolving or escalating the blocker.
205
+ - **Dependency:** the team or system the resolution depends on.
206
+ - **24-hour response gate:** if no response from the dependency party
207
+ within 24 hours of the blocker being raised, the escalation path
208
+ activates automatically.
209
+ - **Escalation path:** named escalation contacts at each level — direct
210
+ manager, functional lead, executive sponsor — with explicit trigger
211
+ conditions.
212
+ - **Root cause:** documented on closure; required for pattern detection.
213
+
214
+ The 24-hour rule is non-negotiable. No blocker sits unacknowledged for
215
+ more than 24 hours. Acknowledgment is not resolution — it is confirmation
216
+ that the dependency party is aware and has committed to a response
217
+ timeline.
218
+
219
+ Escalation is not a failure. Escalation after 24 hours of no response
220
+ is the protocol executing correctly. The shepherd escalates without
221
+ waiting for the blocked party's permission to do so.
222
+
223
+ Root-cause documentation on closure is required because blockers of the
224
+ same type recurring more than once are a process gap, not an individual
225
+ event. Pattern detection at the weekly audit (see §Never-Let-It-Rot Rule)
226
+ depends on root-cause records.
227
+
228
+ ## Never-Let-It-Rot Rule
229
+
230
+ Stale items are defined as any of the following with no update within the
231
+ agreed review window:
232
+
233
+ - A risk row with no status update within its defined review cadence.
234
+ - A dependency node with UNCONFIRMED go-live date more than 5 business
235
+ days after initial documentation.
236
+ - A blocker open more than 48 hours without an escalation on record.
237
+ - A deliverable with no owner-driven status update within the working
238
+ cadence window.
239
+
240
+ The weekly stale-item audit is a fixed, non-optional ceremony. The output
241
+ is a list of stale items with assigned resolution actions and deadlines.
242
+ Items on the list that cannot be resolved or escalated are surfaced to
243
+ the accountable stakeholder for an explicit decision: close, defer, or
244
+ escalate.
245
+
246
+ No item is left on the stale list without an action. "Continue monitoring"
247
+ is not an action. An item with no actionable path gets an explicit
248
+ disposition: accepted risk (documented), deferred to a named future date,
249
+ or escalated for a resource or scope decision.
250
+
251
+ ## Cross-Team Coordination
252
+
253
+ Each team interface in the project has a designated single point-of-contact
254
+ (SPOC) on both sides of the interface. The shepherd maintains the SPOC
255
+ registry. Coordination requests go through SPOCs; multi-party threads that
256
+ bypass the SPOC structure are redirected.
257
+
258
+ Meeting hygiene is enforced:
259
+
260
+ - Every meeting has an agenda distributed at least 24 hours in advance.
261
+ - Every meeting ends with documented decisions, action items, and
262
+ deadlines. Decisions are not captured as meeting notes — they are
263
+ recorded in the relevant artifact (RACI, risk registry, dependency
264
+ graph, or status document).
265
+ - Recurring meetings are reviewed quarterly for continued necessity.
266
+ A meeting whose output can be replaced by an async status update is
267
+ cancelled.
268
+
269
+ Decisions are documented in writing on the day they are made. Verbal
270
+ agreements without a written record are not decisions — they are
271
+ intentions. The shepherd is responsible for ensuring that decisions
272
+ made in cross-team conversations are captured in the relevant artifact
273
+ within 24 hours.
274
+
275
+ ## Anti-Patterns
276
+
277
+ | Anti-pattern | Description | Correct Approach |
278
+ |-------------|-------------|-----------------|
279
+ | Collective ownership | Deliverable assigned to a team, squad, or channel rather than a named individual | Assign to one named person; the team may execute but one person is accountable |
280
+ | Hidden status | Status reported as aggregate Green when one or more streams are Yellow or Red | Report per-stream signal; derive aggregate from streams, never override |
281
+ | Blocker-rot | A blocker documented but not escalated after the 24-hour response window | Execute the escalation path automatically at 24 hours without seeking permission |
282
+ | No risk owner | A risk row documented with no named individual responsible for the mitigation | Invalid row; assign an owner or document explicit risk acceptance before proceeding |
283
+ | Ad-hoc cadence | Status updates sent when something notable happens rather than on a defined schedule | Define and publish cadence per stakeholder tier at project start; push updates on schedule |
284
+ | Dependency-graph-as-list | Dependencies recorded as bullet points without named counterpart owners or go-live dates | Every dependency node carries: From, To, named owner (To-side), go-live date, and blocker status |
285
+ | Decision-by-conversation | Verbal agreements treated as decisions without a written record | Capture in the relevant artifact within 24 hours of the conversation; no written record means no decision |
286
+
287
+ ## Cross-References
288
+
289
+ - `domains/project-management/skills/experiment-tracker` — when a
290
+ project stream includes hypothesis-driven work (A/B tests, pilots,
291
+ phased rollouts), route experiment design and result interpretation
292
+ through the experiment-tracker skill; the shepherd tracks the
293
+ experiment as a dependency with go-live dates per phase.
294
+ - `core/code-review-checklist` — the two-pass review gate (ADR-058)
295
+ applies to high-stakes project artifacts (charters, risk registries,
296
+ post-incident reviews); use the code-review-checklist discipline
297
+ to conduct adversarial review of these documents before circulation.
298
+ - `core/architecture-decisions` — when a blocker or risk surfaces an
299
+ architectural gap requiring a cross-cutting decision, route to the
300
+ architecture-decisions skill for ADR authoring; the shepherd tracks
301
+ the ADR as a dependency with a named decision owner and a target date.
302
+
303
+ ## ADR Anchors
304
+
305
+ - **ADR-058** (`ADR-058-brainstorm-gate-and-two-pass-review.md`) —
306
+ Two-pass adversarial review mandate. Project charters, risk registries,
307
+ and post-incident reviews produced under this skill are high-stakes
308
+ analytical artifacts. The first pass reviews completeness and internal
309
+ consistency; the second pass takes an adversarial frame — specifically
310
+ challenging optimistic status assessments, underdocumented risks, and
311
+ dependency assumptions that have not been confirmed with named owners.
312
+ No charter or risk registry circulates without both passes complete.