arkaos 4.26.0 → 4.27.0

package/departments/saas/skills/churn-analysis/references/dunning-playbook.md

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+# Dunning Playbook
+
+Complete guide to recovering failed payments and reducing involuntary churn.
+
+---
+
+## Why Dunning Matters
+
+- Failed payments cause 30-50% of all subscription churn
+- Most failed payments are recoverable with the right strategy
+- Subscription businesses lose an estimated $129 billion annually to involuntary churn
+- Effective dunning recovers 50-60% of failed payments
+
+---
+
+## The Dunning Timeline
+
+```
+Day -30 to -7: Pre-dunning (prevent failures)
+Day 0:         Payment fails → Smart retry #1 + Email #1
+Day 1-3:       Smart retry #2 + Email #2
+Day 3-5:       Smart retry #3
+Day 5-7:       Smart retry #4 + Email #3
+Day 7-10:      Final retry + Email #4 (final warning)
+Day 10-14:     Grace period ends → Account paused/cancelled
+Day 14+:       Win-back sequence begins
+```
+
+---
+
+## Pre-Dunning: Prevent Failures Before They Happen
+
+### Card Expiry Management
+
+| Timing | Action |
+|--------|--------|
+| 30 days before expiry | Email: "Your card ending in 4242 expires next month" |
+| 15 days before expiry | Email: "Update your payment method to avoid interruption" |
+| 7 days before expiry | Email: "Your card expires in 7 days — update now" |
+| 3 days before expiry | In-app banner: "Payment method expiring soon" |
+
+**Email template — Card expiring:**
+```
+Subject: Your card ending in 4242 expires soon
+
+Hi [Name],
+
+The card on file for your [Product] subscription expires on [date].
+
+Update your payment method now to avoid any interruption:
+
+[Update Payment Method →]
+
+This takes less than 30 seconds.
+
+— [Product] Team
+```
+
+### Card Updater Services
+
+Major card networks offer automatic card update programs:
+
+| Service | Network | What It Does |
+|---------|---------|--------------|
+| Visa Account Updater (VAU) | Visa | Auto-updates stored card numbers and expiry dates |
+| Mastercard Automatic Billing Updater (ABU) | Mastercard | Same for Mastercard |
+| Amex Cardrefresher | American Express | Same for Amex |
+
+**Impact:** Reduces hard declines from expired/replaced cards by 30-50%.
+
+**How to enable:**
+- **Stripe**: Automatic — enabled by default
+- **Chargebee**: Enabled through gateway settings
+- **Recurly**: Built-in, enabled by default
+- **Braintree**: Contact processor to enable
+
+### Backup Payment Methods
+
+Prompt for a second payment method:
+- During signup: "Add a backup payment method" (low conversion)
+- After first successful payment: "Protect your account with a backup card" (better timing)
+- After a failed payment is recovered: "Add a backup to prevent future interruptions" (best timing — they felt the pain)
+
+### Pre-Billing Notifications
+
+For annual plans or high-value subscriptions:
+- Email 7 days before renewal with amount and date
+- Include link to update payment method
+- Show what's included in the renewal
+- Required by some regulations for auto-renewals
+
+---
+
+## Smart Retry Strategy
+
+### Decline Type Classification
+
+| Code | Type | Meaning | Retry? |
+|------|------|---------|--------|
+| `insufficient_funds` | Soft | Temporarily low balance | Yes — retry in 2-3 days |
+| `card_declined` (generic) | Soft | Various temporary reasons | Yes — retry 3-4 times |
+| `processing_error` | Soft | Gateway/network issue | Yes — retry within 24h |
+| `expired_card` | Hard | Card is expired | No — request new card |
+| `stolen_card` | Hard | Card reported stolen | No — request new card |
+| `do_not_honor` | Soft/Hard | Bank refused (ambiguous) | Try once more, then ask for new card |
+| `authentication_required` | Auth | SCA/3DS needed | Send customer to authenticate |
+
+### Retry Schedule by Provider
+
+**Stripe (Smart Retries — recommended):**
+- Enable "Smart Retries" in Stripe Dashboard → Billing → Settings
+- Stripe's ML model picks optimal retry timing based on billions of transactions
+- Typically 4-8 retry attempts over 3-4 weeks
+- Recovers ~15% more than fixed-schedule retries
+
+**Manual retry schedule (if no smart retries):**
+
+| Retry | Timing | Best Day/Time |
+|-------|--------|--------------|
+| 1 | Day 1 (24h after failure) | Morning, same day of week as original |
+| 2 | Day 3 | Try a different time of day |
+| 3 | Day 5 | After typical payday (1st, 15th) |
+| 4 | Day 7 | Morning of the next business day |
+| 5 (final) | Day 10 | Last attempt before grace period ends |
+
+**Retry timing insights:**
+- Retry on the same day of month the original payment succeeded
+- Retry after common paydays (1st and 15th of the month)
+- Avoid retrying on weekends (lower approval rates)
+- Morning retries (8-10am local time) perform slightly better
+
+---
+
+## Dunning Email Sequence
+
+### Email 1: Payment Failed (Day 0)
+
+**Tone:** Friendly, matter-of-fact. No alarm.
+
+```
+Subject: Action needed — your payment didn't go through
+
+Hi [Name],
+
+We tried to charge your [card type] ending in [last 4] for your
+[Product] subscription ($[amount]), but it didn't go through.
+
+This happens sometimes — usually a quick card update fixes it.
+
+[Update Payment Method →]
+
+Your access isn't affected yet. We'll retry automatically, but
+updating your card is the fastest fix.
+
+Need help? Just reply to this email.
+
+— [Product] Team
+```
+
+### Email 2: Reminder (Day 3)
+
+**Tone:** Helpful, slightly more urgent.
+
+```
+Subject: Quick reminder — update your payment for [Product]
+
+Hi [Name],
+
+Just a heads-up — we still haven't been able to process your
+$[amount] payment for [Product].
+
+[Update Payment Method →]
+
+Takes less than 30 seconds. Your [data/projects/team access]
+is safe, but we'll need a valid payment method to keep your
+account active.
+
+Questions? Reply here and we'll help.
+
+— [Product] Team
+```
+
+### Email 3: Urgency (Day 7)
+
+**Tone:** Direct, clear consequences.
+
+```
+Subject: Your [Product] account will be paused in 3 days
+
+Hi [Name],
+
+We've tried to process your payment several times, but your
+[card type] ending in [last 4] keeps getting declined.
+
+If we don't receive payment by [date], your account will be
+paused and you'll lose access to:
+
+• [Key feature/data they use]
+• [Their projects/workspace]
+• [Team access for X members]
+
+[Update Payment Method Now →]
+
+Your data won't be deleted — you can reactivate anytime by
+updating your payment method.
+
+— [Product] Team
+```
+
+### Email 4: Final Warning (Day 10)
+
+**Tone:** Final, clear, no guilt.
+
+```
+Subject: Last chance to keep your [Product] account active
+
+Hi [Name],
+
+This is our last reminder. Your payment of $[amount] is past
+due, and your account will be paused tomorrow ([date]).
+
+[Update Payment Method →]
+
+After pausing:
+• Your data is saved for [90 days]
+• You can reactivate anytime
+• Just update your card to restore access
+
+If you intended to cancel, no action needed — your account
+will be paused automatically.
+
+— [Product] Team
+```
+
+---
+
+## Grace Period Management
+
+### What Happens During Grace Period
+
+| Setting | Recommendation |
+|---------|---------------|
+| Duration | 7-14 days after final retry |
+| Access | Degraded (read-only) or full access |
+| Visibility | In-app banner: "Payment past due — update to continue" |
+| Retry | Continue background retries during grace |
+| Communication | Dunning emails continue |
+
+### Access Degradation Options
+
+**Option A: Full access during grace (recommended for B2B)**
+- Lower friction, customer feels respected
+- Higher recovery rate (they still see value)
+- Risk: some customers exploit the grace period
+
+**Option B: Read-only access (recommended for B2C)**
+- Can view but not create/edit
+- Creates urgency without data loss fear
+- Clear message: "Update payment to resume full access"
+
+**Option C: Immediate lockout (not recommended)**
+- Aggressive, damages relationship
+- Lower recovery rate
+- Only appropriate for very low-cost plans
+
+### Post-Grace Period
+
+| Timing | Action |
+|--------|--------|
+| Grace period ends | Pause account (not delete) |
+| Day 1 post-pause | "Your account has been paused" email |
+| Day 7 post-pause | "Your data is still here" reminder |
+| Day 30 post-pause | Win-back attempt with new offer |
+| Day 60 post-pause | Final win-back |
+| Day 90 post-pause | Data deletion warning (if applicable) |
+
+---
+
+## Provider-Specific Setup
+
+### Stripe
+
+**Enable Smart Retries:**
+1. Dashboard → Settings → Billing → Subscriptions and emails
+2. Enable "Smart Retries" under retry rules
+3. Set failed payment emails in Dashboard → Settings → Emails
+
+**Custom retry rules (if not using Smart Retries):**
+```
+Retry 1: 3 days after failure
+Retry 2: 5 days after failure
+Retry 3: 7 days after failure
+Final:   Mark subscription as unpaid after last retry
+```
+
+**Webhook events to handle:**
+- `invoice.payment_failed` — trigger dunning
+- `invoice.paid` — cancel dunning, restore access
+- `customer.subscription.updated` — status changes
+- `customer.subscription.deleted` — final cancellation
+
+### Chargebee
+
+**Built-in dunning:**
+1. Settings → Configure Chargebee → Retry Settings
+2. Configure retry attempts and intervals
+3. Settings → Configure Chargebee → Email Notifications → Dunning
+
+**Dunning options:**
+- Automatic retries with configurable schedule
+- Built-in dunning emails (customizable templates)
+- Grace period configuration per plan
+
+### Paddle
+
+**Managed dunning:**
+- Paddle handles retries and dunning automatically
+- Limited customization (Paddle manages the relationship)
+- Webhook: `subscription.payment_failed`, `subscription.cancelled`
+- Best for hands-off approach
+
+### Recurly
+
+**Revenue Recovery:**
+1. Configuration → Dunning Management
+2. Set retry schedule per plan
+3. Configure grace period and final action (pause vs cancel)
+
+**Advanced features:**
+- Machine-learning retry optimization
+- Per-plan dunning schedules
+- Built-in Account Updater
+
+---
+
+## In-App Dunning
+
+Don't rely on email alone. Show payment failures in the app:
+
+### Banner Pattern
+```
+┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
+│ ⚠ Your payment of $29 failed. Update your card to    │
+│ avoid losing access. [Update Payment →]  [Dismiss]   │
+└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
+```
+
+**Rules:**
+- Show on every page load during dunning period
+- Allow dismiss (but show again next session)
+- Direct link to payment update (fewest clicks possible)
+- Don't block the product — let them continue using it
+
+### Modal Pattern (for final warning)
+```
+┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
+│                                     │
+│  Your account will be paused        │
+│  on [date]                          │
+│                                     │
+│  Update your payment method to      │
+│  keep access to your [X] projects   │
+│  and [Y] team members.              │
+│                                     │
+│  [Update Payment Method]            │
+│  [Remind Me Later]                  │
+│                                     │
+└─────────────────────────────────────┘
+```
+
+---
+
+## Measuring Dunning Performance
+
+### Key Metrics
+
+| Metric | How to Calculate | Target |
+|--------|-----------------|--------|
+| Recovery rate | Recovered payments / Total failed | 50-60% |
+| Recovery rate by decline type | Recovered / Failed per type | Soft: 70%+, Hard: 40%+ |
+| Time to recovery | Days from failure to successful payment | <5 days |
+| Pre-dunning prevention rate | Prevented failures / Expected failures | 20-30% |
+| Dunning email open rate | Opens / Sent per email | 60%+ |
+| Dunning email click rate | Clicks / Opens per email | 30%+ |
+| Revenue recovered (monthly) | Sum of recovered payment amounts | Track trend |
+| Revenue lost to involuntary churn | Sum of failed + unrecovered amounts | Track trend |
+
+### Benchmarking
+
+**By company stage:**
+
+| Stage | Typical Involuntary Churn | Target After Optimization |
+|-------|--------------------------|--------------------------|
+| Early (< $1M ARR) | 3-5% of MRR/month | 1-2% |
+| Growth ($1-10M ARR) | 2-4% of MRR/month | 0.5-1.5% |
+| Scale ($10M+ ARR) | 1-3% of MRR/month | 0.3-0.8% |
+
+### ROI Calculation
+
+```
+Monthly failed payment MRR:        $10,000
+Current recovery rate:              30% ($3,000 recovered)
+Target recovery rate:               60% ($6,000 recovered)
+Monthly improvement:                $3,000/month
+Annual improvement:                 $36,000/year
+Cost of dunning optimization:       ~$200-500/month (tooling)
+ROI:                                6-15x
+```