@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.3 → 2.7.5
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/CHANGELOG.md +100 -0
- package/README.md +17 -7
- package/THIRD_PARTY_NOTICES.md +71 -24
- package/capital-config/client.js +4 -4
- package/capital-config/package.json +1 -1
- package/capital-watchlist/package.json +1 -1
- package/chart-ui/package.json +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.js +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/sources.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/sources.js +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.js +1 -1
- package/package.json +2 -1
- package/selected-skills/README.md +6 -1
- package/selected-skills/catalog.js +176 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/LICENSE +201 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/UPSTREAM.md +173 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-3-statement-model/SKILL.md +287 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-accrual-schedule/SKILL.md +182 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-audit-xls/SKILL.md +231 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-break-trace/SKILL.md +217 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/SKILL.md +258 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-clean-data-xls/SKILL.md +237 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-comps/SKILL.md +104 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-comps-analysis/SKILL.md +196 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-dcf/SKILL.md +81 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-dcf-model/SKILL.md +68 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-deal-screening/SKILL.md +212 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-deck-refresh/SKILL.md +221 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-earnings-analysis/SKILL.md +237 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-earnings-preview/SKILL.md +239 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-gl-recon/SKILL.md +232 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-ib-check-deck/SKILL.md +252 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/SKILL.md +277 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-initiating-coverage/SKILL.md +271 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-lbo-model/SKILL.md +273 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-market-data/SKILL.md +229 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-model-update/SKILL.md +219 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-morning-note/SKILL.md +227 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-ppt-template-creator/SKILL.md +231 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-pptx-author/SKILL.md +240 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-roll-forward/SKILL.md +189 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-sector-overview/SKILL.md +257 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-skill-creator/SKILL.md +304 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-tax-loss-harvesting/SKILL.md +200 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-thesis-tracker/SKILL.md +237 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-variance-commentary/SKILL.md +262 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-xlsx-author/SKILL.md +256 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/fund-admin/skills/china-accrual-schedule/SKILL.md +190 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/fund-admin/skills/china-break-trace/SKILL.md +182 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/fund-admin/skills/china-gl-recon/SKILL.md +200 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/fund-admin/skills/china-nav-tieout/SKILL.md +233 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/fund-admin/skills/china-roll-forward/SKILL.md +178 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/fund-admin/skills/china-variance-commentary/SKILL.md +190 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-buyer-list/SKILL.md +198 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-cim-builder/SKILL.md +223 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-competitive-analysis/SKILL.md +233 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-datapack-builder/SKILL.md +232 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-deal-tracker/SKILL.md +151 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-merger-model/SKILL.md +226 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-pitch-deck/SKILL.md +231 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-process-letter/SKILL.md +249 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-strip-profile/SKILL.md +196 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-teaser/SKILL.md +235 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/operations/skills/china-kyc-doc-parse/SKILL.md +252 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/operations/skills/china-kyc-rules/SKILL.md +223 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-ai-readiness/SKILL.md +184 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-dd-checklist/SKILL.md +217 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-dd-meeting-prep/SKILL.md +290 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-deal-sourcing/SKILL.md +224 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-ic-memo/SKILL.md +230 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-portfolio-monitoring/SKILL.md +214 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-returns-analysis/SKILL.md +176 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-unit-economics/SKILL.md +192 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-value-creation-plan/SKILL.md +193 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/wealth-management/skills/china-client-report/SKILL.md +205 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/wealth-management/skills/china-client-review/SKILL.md +218 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/wealth-management/skills/china-financial-plan/SKILL.md +259 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/wealth-management/skills/china-investment-proposal/SKILL.md +271 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/wealth-management/skills/china-portfolio-rebalance/SKILL.md +191 -0
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---
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name: china-tax-loss-harvesting
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description: Tax-loss harvesting strategies for A-share portfolios. Adapts the original tax-loss-harvesting skill for Chinese tax rules, A-share market conventions, and domestic tax treatment. Triggers on "A股税务亏损抵扣", "亏损抵扣", "tax loss harvesting China", "税务优化", "亏损抵扣策略", or "harvest tax losses [portfolio]".
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---
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# china-tax-loss-harvesting
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## Purpose
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Implement **A股税务亏损抵扣** — systematic tax-loss harvesting for Chinese investment portfolios.
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## Data Sources
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### Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
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```python
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get_quote(ticker) → Current prices for holdings
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get_historical_data(ticker) → Cost basis / purchase history
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```
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### Secondary Sources
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- Broker records — cost basis, trade history
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- Tax filings — prior year losses
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- 交易所 — tax treatment rules
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## Workflow
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### Step 1: Identify Tax-Loss Positions
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**Loss identification:**
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| Position | Ticker | Cost Basis | Current Value | Unrealized Loss | Loss % |
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|----------|--------|-----------|--------------|-----------------|--------|
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| | | ¥XX | ¥XX | ¥XX | X% |
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**Loss screening criteria:**
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- Unrealized loss > 10% of cost basis
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- Loss amount significant relative to portfolio
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- Holding period appropriate for tax treatment
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### Step 2: Understand A-share Tax Rules
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**China tax treatment for securities:**
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| Item | Tax Rate | Notes |
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|------|----------|-------|
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| 证券买卖价差 | **暂免** (temporarily exempt) | Capital gains on stocks |
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| 股息红利 | 20% (持股>1年减半至10%, >1年免征) | Dividend tax |
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| 基金分红 | 暂免 (some funds) | Fund distributions |
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| 买卖印花税 | 0.05% (seller only) | Stamp duty |
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| 证券交易佣金 | 0.02-0.03% | Commission |
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**Current status of capital gains tax:**
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- Individuals: Capital gains on stocks are currently **temporarily exempt** (暂免征收)
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- However, losses can be used to offset gains within the same year
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- Loss carryforward rules may apply
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### Step 3: Calculate Tax Benefit
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**Tax benefit calculation:**
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| Scenario | Gain | Loss | Taxable Gain | Tax Saved |
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|----------|------|------|--------------|-----------|
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| Without TLH | ¥XX | — | ¥XX | — |
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| With TLH | ¥XX | ¥XX | ¥XX | ¥XX |
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| **Benefit** | | | | **¥XX** |
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**Note:** In the current A-share environment where capital gains are largely exempt, tax-loss harvesting benefits may be limited. However:
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- Harvesting losses can be valuable if tax rules change
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- Offsetting gains within the same year
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- Potential future tax benefit if capital gains tax is introduced
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### Step 4: Identify Replacement Securities
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**Replacement criteria:**
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| Criterion | Requirement |
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|-----------|-------------|
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| Same sector | Similar industry exposure |
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| Similar characteristics | Market cap, growth, quality |
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| Not substantially identical | Avoid wash sale rules |
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| Tax-efficient | Consider dividend treatment |
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**Wash sale considerations (China):**
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- No explicit wash sale rule currently
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- However, substantially identical securities may be disallowed
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- Best practice: 30-day waiting period
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### Step 5: Execution Strategy
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**Execution options:**
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| Strategy | Description | Pros | Cons |
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|----------|-------------|------|------|
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| Full exit | Sell and replace | Clean loss realization | Market risk |
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| Partial exit | Reduce position | Partial benefit | Partial benefit only |
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| Swap | Sell loss, buy similar | Maintain exposure | Timing risk |
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| Delay | Wait for recovery | No transaction costs | Missed opportunity |
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### Step 6: Implementation Plan
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**Step-by-step plan:**
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| Step | Action | Timing |
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|------|--------|--------|
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| 1 | Identify loss positions | Pre-year-end |
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| 2 | Evaluate replacement options | Pre-year-end |
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| 3 | Check wash sale rules | Pre-year-end |
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| 4 | Execute sales | Before year-end |
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| 5 | Execute purchases | After sale (or simultaneously) |
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| 6 | Document transactions | Immediately |
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| 7 | File tax forms | Tax filing deadline |
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### Step 7: Document for Tax Filing
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**Required documentation:**
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| Document | Content |
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|----------|---------|
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| Trade confirmations | Sale and purchase tickets |
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| Cost basis records | Purchase prices, dates |
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| Loss calculations | Realized loss amounts |
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| Replacement securities | Identified alternatives |
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| Market rationale | Investment thesis |
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### Step 8: Year-End Checklist
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**Year-end TLH checklist:**
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| Date | Action |
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|------|--------|
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| Nov | Review portfolio for loss positions |
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| Dec 1-15 | Identify replacement securities |
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| Dec 15-20 | Execute loss sales |
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| Dec 20-31 | Execute replacements |
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| Dec 31 | Final portfolio review |
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| Jan | File tax documentation |
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## China-Specific TLH Considerations
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### Current Tax Environment
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| Factor | Status | Implication |
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|--------|--------|-------------|
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| 资本利得税 | 暂免 (temporarily exempt) | Limited current benefit |
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| 印花税 | 0.05% | Cost on sale |
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| 股息红利税 | 20% (10% for >1yr) | Consider in replacement |
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| 交易佣金 | 0.02-0.03% | Trading cost |
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### When TLH Makes Sense in China
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| Scenario | Benefit |
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|----------|---------|
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| Offset short-term gains | Use losses against gains |
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| Reset cost basis | Lower future gains if taxed |
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| Prepare for tax changes | If capital gains taxed in future |
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| Portfolio rebalancing | Combine with rebalancing |
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### A-share Market Timing
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| Consideration | Guidance |
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|--------------|----------|
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| 年末效应 | Year-end selling pressure |
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| 涨跌停限制 | May prevent execution |
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| 流动性 | Ensure liquidity for exit |
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| 政策窗口 | Tax policy change risk |
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## TLH for Different Client Types
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### Individual Investors
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| Consideration | Guidance |
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|---------------|----------|
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| 持股期限 | >1 year for dividend tax benefit |
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| 高频交易 | May trigger scrutiny |
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| 金额门槛 | Focus on significant positions |
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### Institutional Investors
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| Consideration | Guidance |
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|---------------|----------|
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| 交易成本 | Factor in commission impact |
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| 市场冲击 | Large position impact |
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| 会计处理 | NAV impact timing |
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| 合规审查 | Documentation requirements |
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## Quality Checks
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Before executing:
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- [ ] Tax benefit calculated
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- [ ] Replacement securities identified
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- [ ] Wash sale rules considered
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- [ ] Execution plan clear
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- [ ] Documentation prepared
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- [ ] Timing appropriate
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> **Data Source Mode Switch**: Set env var `IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE` to control data source preference.
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> - `ifind-only` (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
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> - `ifind-fallback` (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
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> - `akshare-only, wind-only (Wind only), wind-fallback (Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare)`: Skip iFind, use AkShare only
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---
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name: china-thesis-tracker
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description: Maintain and update investment theses for A-share portfolio positions and watchlist names. Track key data points, catalysts, milestones, and thesis validity over time. Adapted from the original thesis-tracker skill for Chinese market conventions. Triggers on "A股持仓逻辑跟踪", "投资逻辑更新", "thesis check China", "update thesis for [company]", "is my thesis still intact", or "A股持仓复盘".
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---
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# china-thesis-tracker
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## Purpose
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Track and maintain **A股投资逻辑/thesis** for portfolio positions and watchlist names, ensuring thesis validity is continuously monitored.
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## Data Sources
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### Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
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```python
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get_quote(ticker) → Current price, valuation
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get_historical_data(ticker) → Price trajectory
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get_financials(ticker, "income") → Financial performance
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# News (china-news MCP — separate server)
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get_stock_news(ticker="{{TICKER}}") → News affecting thesis
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get_industry_stocks(industry="...") → Peer context
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```
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### Secondary Sources
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- 巨潮公告 — corporate actions and filings
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- 业绩说明会 — management commentary
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- 券商研报 — analyst updates
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- Wind / Choice — ownership and flow data
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## Workflow
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### Step 1: Define / Load Thesis
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**Thesis statement template:**
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```
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公司:[Company]([Ticker])
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行业:[Industry]
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方向:[Long / Short / Watch]
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核心投资逻辑 (3-5 bullet points):
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1. [Key driver 1]
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2. [Key driver 2]
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3. [Key driver 3]
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目标价:¥XX.XX (X% upside/downside)
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时间 horizon:[6M / 1Y / 2Y]
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置信度:[High / Medium / Low]
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```
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|
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**Thesis components:**
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| Component | Description | Example |
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|-----------|-------------|---------|
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| 核心逻辑 (Core thesis) | Why will the stock move? | 批价上行驱动盈利超预期 |
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| 关键假设 (Key assumptions) | What must be true? | 批价 >1000元, 动销增速 >15% |
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| 催化剂 (Catalysts) | What triggers re-rating? | Q1业绩, 批价数据, 政策变化 |
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| 风险因素 (Risks) | What could break the thesis? | 批价下行, 竞品放量, 政策风险 |
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| 目标价 (Target) | Fair value estimate | ¥2000 (基于25x PE) |
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| 止损位 (Stop loss) | Downside risk limit | ¥1500 (对应20x PE) |
|
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63
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+
|
|
64
|
+
### Step 2: Track Key Data Points
|
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+
|
|
66
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**Company-specific KPIs:**
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67
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+
|
|
68
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| KPI | Frequency | Source | Trend |
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69
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|-----|-----------|--------|-------|
|
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70
|
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| e.g., 批价 | Weekly | 渠道调研, 新闻 | ↑ / → / ↓ |
|
|
71
|
+
| e.g., 动销增速 | Monthly | 经销商反馈 | ↑ / → / ↓ |
|
|
72
|
+
| e.g., 产能利用率 | Quarterly | 年报/中报 | ↑ / → / ↓ |
|
|
73
|
+
|
|
74
|
+
**Financial metrics to track:**
|
|
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|
+
|
|
76
|
+
| Metric | Last Reported | Trend | Thesis Impact |
|
|
77
|
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|--------|--------------|-------|---------------|
|
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78
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| Revenue growth | | | |
|
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| Gross margin | | | |
|
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80
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| Net margin | | | |
|
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81
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| ROE | | | |
|
|
82
|
+
| Net debt/EBITDA | | | |
|
|
83
|
+
|
|
84
|
+
**Market metrics:**
|
|
85
|
+
|
|
86
|
+
| Metric | Current | 52W High | 52W Low | Thesis Relevance |
|
|
87
|
+
|--------|---------|----------|---------|------------------|
|
|
88
|
+
| Stock price | | | | |
|
|
89
|
+
| Market cap | | | | |
|
|
90
|
+
| PE (TTM) | | | | |
|
|
91
|
+
| PB | | | | |
|
|
92
|
+
| YTD return | | | | |
|
|
93
|
+
|
|
94
|
+
### Step 3: Monitor Catalysts
|
|
95
|
+
|
|
96
|
+
**Catalyst checklist:**
|
|
97
|
+
|
|
98
|
+
| Catalyst | Expected Date | Status | Outcome | Thesis Impact |
|
|
99
|
+
|----------|--------------|--------|---------|----------------|
|
|
100
|
+
| Q1 季报 | Apr 25 | Pending | | |
|
|
101
|
+
| 批价数据 | Weekly | Ongoing | 稳定在980元 | Positive |
|
|
102
|
+
| 股东大会 | May 15 | Scheduled | | |
|
|
103
|
+
|
|
104
|
+
**Catalyst outcome assessment:**
|
|
105
|
+
- **Confirming**: Result supports thesis → increase conviction
|
|
106
|
+
- **Neutral**: Result as expected → maintain position
|
|
107
|
+
- **Breaking**: Result contradicts thesis → reduce/exit position
|
|
108
|
+
|
|
109
|
+
### Step 4: Thesis Validity Check
|
|
110
|
+
|
|
111
|
+
**Regular review questions:**
|
|
112
|
+
|
|
113
|
+
1. **Has the thesis changed?**
|
|
114
|
+
- Core drivers still intact?
|
|
115
|
+
- New information adding to or subtracting from thesis?
|
|
116
|
+
|
|
117
|
+
2. **Are assumptions still valid?**
|
|
118
|
+
- Key assumptions: still on track?
|
|
119
|
+
- Any material change to underlying business?
|
|
120
|
+
|
|
121
|
+
3. **Is the timing right?**
|
|
122
|
+
- Catalyst timeline progressing as expected?
|
|
123
|
+
- Market pricing in the thesis?
|
|
124
|
+
|
|
125
|
+
4. **Is the risk/reward still favorable?**
|
|
126
|
+
- Upside/downside ratio updated?
|
|
127
|
+
- Entry price still reasonable?
|
|
128
|
+
|
|
129
|
+
5. **Should thesis be adjusted?**
|
|
130
|
+
- Target price update
|
|
131
|
+
- Risk factors added/removed
|
|
132
|
+
- Time horizon extended/contracted
|
|
133
|
+
|
|
134
|
+
### Step 5: Thesis Status
|
|
135
|
+
|
|
136
|
+
**Status categories:**
|
|
137
|
+
|
|
138
|
+
| Status | Definition | Action |
|
|
139
|
+
|--------|-----------|--------|
|
|
140
|
+
| Intact (逻辑 intact) | All assumptions hold, catalysts on track | Maintain / add on weakness |
|
|
141
|
+
| Under pressure (承压) | Some assumptions challenged, thesis not broken | Monitor closely, define exit criteria |
|
|
142
|
+
| Broken (逻辑破) | Core thesis invalidated | Exit position, document lessons |
|
|
143
|
+
| Evolving (演进中) | Thesis needs update based on new info | Update thesis statement, re-evaluate |
|
|
144
|
+
|
|
145
|
+
### Step 6: Update Documentation
|
|
146
|
+
|
|
147
|
+
**Thesis update log:**
|
|
148
|
+
|
|
149
|
+
```
|
|
150
|
+
[公司] 投资逻辑更新 [Date]
|
|
151
|
+
|
|
152
|
+
一、当前状态:[Intact / Under pressure / Broken / Evolving]
|
|
153
|
+
|
|
154
|
+
二、本期间重要变化:
|
|
155
|
+
- [Change 1]: [Impact on thesis]
|
|
156
|
+
- [Change 2]: [Impact on thesis]
|
|
157
|
+
|
|
158
|
+
三、数据追踪:
|
|
159
|
+
[Key metrics updated]
|
|
160
|
+
|
|
161
|
+
四、催化剂进展:
|
|
162
|
+
[Catalyst status update]
|
|
163
|
+
|
|
164
|
+
五、决策:
|
|
165
|
+
- [Maintain / Add / Reduce / Exit]
|
|
166
|
+
- [Rationale]
|
|
167
|
+
|
|
168
|
+
六、后续关注:
|
|
169
|
+
- [Next check-in date]
|
|
170
|
+
- [Key metrics to watch]
|
|
171
|
+
```
|
|
172
|
+
|
|
173
|
+
### Step 7: Portfolio-Level Review
|
|
174
|
+
|
|
175
|
+
**Aggregate view:**
|
|
176
|
+
|
|
177
|
+
| Position | Thesis Status | Conviction | Days Held | P&L | Next Catalyst | Action |
|
|
178
|
+
|----------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----|---------------|--------|
|
|
179
|
+
| | | | | | | |
|
|
180
|
+
|
|
181
|
+
**Portfolio-level insights:**
|
|
182
|
+
- Which theses are working? Common factors?
|
|
183
|
+
- Which theses are breaking? Common risks?
|
|
184
|
+
- Concentration risk (too many bets on similar thesis?)
|
|
185
|
+
- Hedge effectiveness ( shorts protecting longs?)
|
|
186
|
+
|
|
187
|
+
## China-Specific Thesis Considerations
|
|
188
|
+
|
|
189
|
+
### Common A-share Thesis Types
|
|
190
|
+
|
|
191
|
+
| Thesis Type | Description | Key Metrics |
|
|
192
|
+
|-------------|-------------|-------------|
|
|
193
|
+
| 批价上行 | Liquor sector price appreciation | 批价, 库存, 动销 |
|
|
194
|
+
| 国产替代 | Import substitution | 市场份额, 认证进展 |
|
|
195
|
+
| 产能出清 | Industry capacity rationalization | 产能利用率, 价格 |
|
|
196
|
+
| 政策利好 | Policy tailwind | 政策落地, 补贴 |
|
|
197
|
+
| 困境反转 | Distressed turnaround | 债务重组, 新管理层 |
|
|
198
|
+
| 行业整合 | M&A consolidation | 集中度, 并购活动 |
|
|
199
|
+
| 技术突破 | Technology breakthrough | 专利, 订单 |
|
|
200
|
+
| 消费升级 | Premiumization | ASP, 产品结构 |
|
|
201
|
+
|
|
202
|
+
### A-share Market Risks to Track
|
|
203
|
+
|
|
204
|
+
| Risk Type | Indicator | Mitigation |
|
|
205
|
+
|-----------|-----------|------------|
|
|
206
|
+
| 政策风险 (Policy) | Regulatory announcements | Diversify across sectors |
|
|
207
|
+
| 系统性风险 (Systemic) | 上证指数 drawdown | Hedging, cash position |
|
|
208
|
+
| 流动性风险 (Liquidity) | Margin balances, turnover | Avoid illiquid names |
|
|
209
|
+
| 解禁风险 (Lock-up) | Unlocking calendar | Avoid near-term unlocks |
|
|
210
|
+
| 质押风险 (Pledging) | Shareholder pledge ratio | Check F10 data |
|
|
211
|
+
| 商誉风险 (Goodwill) | Goodwill/equity ratio | Flag high goodwill names |
|
|
212
|
+
|
|
213
|
+
### Typical A-share Thesis Lifecycle
|
|
214
|
+
|
|
215
|
+
```
|
|
216
|
+
Week 1-2: Initial idea, data gathering
|
|
217
|
+
Week 3-4: Thesis formation, model build
|
|
218
|
+
Week 5-8: Position establishment, catalyst tracking
|
|
219
|
+
Week 9-16: Thesis validation / adjustment
|
|
220
|
+
Week 17+: Outcome assessment, exit decision
|
|
221
|
+
```
|
|
222
|
+
|
|
223
|
+
## Quality Checks
|
|
224
|
+
|
|
225
|
+
Before delivering thesis update:
|
|
226
|
+
- [ ] Thesis statement clear and specific
|
|
227
|
+
- [ ] Key assumptions listed and tracked
|
|
228
|
+
- [ ] Catalysts documented with dates
|
|
229
|
+
- [ ] Financial metrics current
|
|
230
|
+
- [ ] Price trajectory analyzed
|
|
231
|
+
- [ ] Risk factors updated
|
|
232
|
+
- [ ] Action recommendation clear
|
|
233
|
+
- [ ] Next review date set
|
|
234
|
+
> **Data Source Mode Switch**: Set env var `IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE` to control data source preference.
|
|
235
|
+
> - `ifind-only` (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
|
|
236
|
+
> - `ifind-fallback` (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
|
|
237
|
+
> - `akshare-only`: Skip iFind, use AkShare only
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,262 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
---
|
|
2
|
+
name: china-variance-commentary
|
|
3
|
+
description: Write variance commentary for A-share financial results. Adapts the original variance-commentary skill for Chinese financial statements, CAS conventions, and Chinese business terminology. Triggers on "A股业绩点评", "财报点评", "variance commentary China", "业绩分析", "variances [company]", or "commentary on [company] results".
|
|
4
|
+
---
|
|
5
|
+
|
|
6
|
+
# china-variance-commentary
|
|
7
|
+
|
|
8
|
+
> 本文件相对上游 `d7585ca` 快照做过合规改写(取数与凭据口径),逐条记在快照根目录的 UPSTREAM.md;方法论、阈值与输出模板未改。
|
|
9
|
+
|
|
10
|
+
## Purpose
|
|
11
|
+
|
|
12
|
+
Write professional **A股业绩点评** — structured variance commentary on Chinese company financial results.
|
|
13
|
+
|
|
14
|
+
## Data Sources
|
|
15
|
+
|
|
16
|
+
Commentary explains numbers; it does not obtain them. This plugin retrieves through exactly one entry — the main agent delegating to the role that owns structured data or disclosure material — and no data-service key is held or requested here.
|
|
17
|
+
|
|
18
|
+
Brief the retrieval path with the ticker, the fields, and one as-of date:
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
- 实际数:利润表 (收入、归母净利、毛利率、费用率)、资产负债表、现金流量表, on the reported period plus the year-ago and prior-quarter comparatives the table needs
|
|
21
|
+
- 行情背景:最新价与区间表现, so the commentary can say how the print landed
|
|
22
|
+
- 原始披露:定期报告正文与 业绩快报 / 业绩预告、管理层说明
|
|
23
|
+
- 预期参照:券商研报条目里的预测字段, which is one house's forecast, not a market consensus
|
|
24
|
+
|
|
25
|
+
| 参照 | 它是什么 |
|
|
26
|
+
|------|----------|
|
|
27
|
+
| 券商研报预测 | 单家口径的预测值 |
|
|
28
|
+
| 公司 业绩预告 / 快报 | 披露出来的方向或区间 |
|
|
29
|
+
| 去年同期与自己先前预测 | 差异的另一个基线 |
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
There is no 一致预期 endpoint in this plugin. When no expectation comes back, write the variance against 去年同期、先前口径与披露区间, label the comparison as such, and leave the Consensus column empty — a commentary built on an assumed consensus is not commentary, it is a guess wearing a table.
|
|
32
|
+
|
|
33
|
+
## Workflow
|
|
34
|
+
|
|
35
|
+
### Step 1: Gather Actuals and Estimates
|
|
36
|
+
|
|
37
|
+
**Data collection:**
|
|
38
|
+
|
|
39
|
+
| Metric | Actual (Actuals) | Consensus (一致预期) | Prior | YoY | QoQ |
|
|
40
|
+
|--------|-----------------|---------------------|-------|-----|-----|
|
|
41
|
+
| 营业收入 | | | | | |
|
|
42
|
+
| 毛利率 | | | | | |
|
|
43
|
+
| 归母净利润 | | | | | |
|
|
44
|
+
| 扣非净利润 | | | | | |
|
|
45
|
+
| EPS | | | | | |
|
|
46
|
+
| 经营现金流 | | | | | |
|
|
47
|
+
|
|
48
|
+
### Step 2: Variance Analysis
|
|
49
|
+
|
|
50
|
+
**Variance table:**
|
|
51
|
+
|
|
52
|
+
| Metric | Actual | Consensus | Variance | % vs Cons | % vs Prior | Impact |
|
|
53
|
+
|--------|--------|-----------|----------|-----------|------------|--------|
|
|
54
|
+
| 营业收入 | | | | | | |
|
|
55
|
+
| 毛利率 | | | | | | |
|
|
56
|
+
| 归母净利润 | | | | | | |
|
|
57
|
+
| 扣非净利润 | | | | | | |
|
|
58
|
+
| EPS | | | | | | |
|
|
59
|
+
| ROE | | | | | | |
|
|
60
|
+
|
|
61
|
+
**Variance classification:**
|
|
62
|
+
|
|
63
|
+
| Variance | Classification | Commentary |
|
|
64
|
+
|----------|---------------|------------|
|
|
65
|
+
| Revenue +5% vs cons | Slight beat | |
|
|
66
|
+
| Revenue +15% vs cons | Strong beat | |
|
|
67
|
+
| Revenue -5% vs cons | Slight miss | |
|
|
68
|
+
| Revenue -15% vs cons | Significant miss | |
|
|
69
|
+
|
|
70
|
+
### Step 3: Driver Analysis
|
|
71
|
+
|
|
72
|
+
**Key drivers decomposition:**
|
|
73
|
+
|
|
74
|
+
**Revenue drivers:**
|
|
75
|
+
```
|
|
76
|
+
收入变动 = 量增 + 价增 + 产品结构 + 收购/处置
|
|
77
|
+
|
|
78
|
+
分解:
|
|
79
|
+
1. 销量变化: +X% (驱动因素)
|
|
80
|
+
2. 价格变化: +X% (提价/促销)
|
|
81
|
+
3. 产品组合: +X% (高毛利产品占比提升)
|
|
82
|
+
4. 其他: +X% (并表/汇率)
|
|
83
|
+
```
|
|
84
|
+
|
|
85
|
+
**Margin drivers:**
|
|
86
|
+
```
|
|
87
|
+
毛利率变动 = 原材料成本 + 人工成本 + 制造费用 + 产品结构
|
|
88
|
+
|
|
89
|
+
分解:
|
|
90
|
+
1. 原材料: -X ppts (价格上涨/下降)
|
|
91
|
+
2. 人工: +X ppts (效率提升/人工成本上涨)
|
|
92
|
+
3. 制造费用: +X ppts (产能利用率)
|
|
93
|
+
4. 产品结构: +X ppts (高毛利产品占比)
|
|
94
|
+
5. 其他: X ppts
|
|
95
|
+
```
|
|
96
|
+
|
|
97
|
+
**Net profit bridge:**
|
|
98
|
+
|
|
99
|
+
```
|
|
100
|
+
归母净利润变动
|
|
101
|
+
├── 营业收入影响: +¥XX万
|
|
102
|
+
├── 毛利率影响: +¥XX万
|
|
103
|
+
├── 费用率影响: +¥XX万
|
|
104
|
+
│ ├── 销售费用: -¥XX万
|
|
105
|
+
│ ├── 管理费用: +¥XX万
|
|
106
|
+
│ └── 研发费用: +¥XX万
|
|
107
|
+
├── 其他收益影响: +¥XX万
|
|
108
|
+
├── 投资收益影响: +¥XX万
|
|
109
|
+
├── 减值损失影响: -¥XX万
|
|
110
|
+
├── 营业外收支影响: +¥XX万
|
|
111
|
+
├── 所得税影响: -¥XX万
|
|
112
|
+
└── 归母净利润变动: +¥XX万
|
|
113
|
+
```
|
|
114
|
+
|
|
115
|
+
### Step 4: Segment Commentary
|
|
116
|
+
|
|
117
|
+
**By segment:**
|
|
118
|
+
|
|
119
|
+
| Segment | Revenue | Growth | Margin | Comment |
|
|
120
|
+
|---------|---------|--------|--------|---------|
|
|
121
|
+
| | | | | |
|
|
122
|
+
|
|
123
|
+
**By geography:**
|
|
124
|
+
|
|
125
|
+
| Region | Revenue | Growth | Comment |
|
|
126
|
+
|--------|---------|--------|---------|
|
|
127
|
+
| 国内 | | | |
|
|
128
|
+
| 海外 | | | |
|
|
129
|
+
|
|
130
|
+
### Step 5: Balance Sheet Commentary
|
|
131
|
+
|
|
132
|
+
**Key BS changes:**
|
|
133
|
+
|
|
134
|
+
| Item | Change | Driver | Impact |
|
|
135
|
+
|------|--------|--------|--------|
|
|
136
|
+
| 货币资金 | | | |
|
|
137
|
+
| 应收账款 | | | |
|
|
138
|
+
| 存货 | | | |
|
|
139
|
+
| 商誉 | | | |
|
|
140
|
+
| 有息负债 | | | |
|
|
141
|
+
|
|
142
|
+
### Step 6: Cash Flow Commentary
|
|
143
|
+
|
|
144
|
+
**Cash flow analysis:**
|
|
145
|
+
|
|
146
|
+
| Item | Amount | Change | Comment |
|
|
147
|
+
|------|--------|--------|---------|
|
|
148
|
+
| 经营活动现金流 | | | |
|
|
149
|
+
| 投资活动现金流 | | | |
|
|
150
|
+
| 筹资活动现金流 | | | |
|
|
151
|
+
| 现金净增加额 | | | |
|
|
152
|
+
|
|
153
|
+
**Key observations:**
|
|
154
|
+
- OCF vs Net income comparison
|
|
155
|
+
- CapEx intensity
|
|
156
|
+
- Dividend payment
|
|
157
|
+
- Debt activity
|
|
158
|
+
|
|
159
|
+
### Step 7: Forward-Looking Commentary
|
|
160
|
+
|
|
161
|
+
**Guidance and outlook:**
|
|
162
|
+
|
|
163
|
+
| Area | Commentary |
|
|
164
|
+
|------|-----------|
|
|
165
|
+
| 收入指引 | Management guidance |
|
|
166
|
+
| 利润指引 | Earnings outlook |
|
|
167
|
+
| 投资计划 | CapEx plans |
|
|
168
|
+
| 战略方向 | Strategic initiatives |
|
|
169
|
+
|
|
170
|
+
### Step 8: Write the Commentary
|
|
171
|
+
|
|
172
|
+
**Standard format (业绩点评):**
|
|
173
|
+
|
|
174
|
+
```
|
|
175
|
+
【业绩点评】[Company] [Period] [Beat/Miss/In-line]
|
|
176
|
+
|
|
177
|
+
核心结论:
|
|
178
|
+
- 营收XX亿, 同比+/-X%, 超/低于预期X%
|
|
179
|
+
- 归母净利润XX亿, 同比+/-X%, 超/低于预期X%
|
|
180
|
+
- 扣非净利润XX亿, 同比+/-X%
|
|
181
|
+
|
|
182
|
+
要点:
|
|
183
|
+
1. [Key driver 1]
|
|
184
|
+
2. [Key driver 2]
|
|
185
|
+
3. [Key driver 3]
|
|
186
|
+
|
|
187
|
+
详细分析:
|
|
188
|
+
|
|
189
|
+
一、营业收入
|
|
190
|
+
[Revenue commentary with drivers]
|
|
191
|
+
|
|
192
|
+
二、盈利能力
|
|
193
|
+
[Margin analysis]
|
|
194
|
+
|
|
195
|
+
三、费用分析
|
|
196
|
+
[Expense commentary]
|
|
197
|
+
|
|
198
|
+
四、资产负债表
|
|
199
|
+
[Key BS changes]
|
|
200
|
+
|
|
201
|
+
五、现金流量
|
|
202
|
+
[CF commentary]
|
|
203
|
+
|
|
204
|
+
六、展望
|
|
205
|
+
[Forward-looking]
|
|
206
|
+
|
|
207
|
+
风险提示:
|
|
208
|
+
- [Key risks]
|
|
209
|
+
|
|
210
|
+
风险提示: 本内容仅供研究参考, 不构成投资建议。
|
|
211
|
+
```
|
|
212
|
+
|
|
213
|
+
## China-Specific Commentary Considerations
|
|
214
|
+
|
|
215
|
+
### Key Metrics to Highlight
|
|
216
|
+
|
|
217
|
+
| Metric | Why Important |
|
|
218
|
+
|--------|---------------|
|
|
219
|
+
| 归母净利润 | Standard metric for A-share investors |
|
|
220
|
+
| 扣非净利润 | Shows core business quality |
|
|
221
|
+
| 经营现金流 | Cash generation quality |
|
|
222
|
+
| 毛利率/净利率 | Profitability trends |
|
|
223
|
+
| ROE | Return on equity benchmark |
|
|
224
|
+
| 资产负债率 | Leverage concern |
|
|
225
|
+
|
|
226
|
+
### Common Earnings Themes
|
|
227
|
+
|
|
228
|
+
| Pattern | Typical Commentary |
|
|
229
|
+
|---------|-------------------|
|
|
230
|
+
| 收入增, 利润降 | Margin compression |
|
|
231
|
+
| 利润增, 现金流降 | Earnings quality concern |
|
|
232
|
+
| 高政府补助 | Sustainability question |
|
|
233
|
+
| 大额减值 | Asset quality |
|
|
234
|
+
| 关联交易高 | Revenue quality |
|
|
235
|
+
| 合同负债大增 | Future revenue visibility |
|
|
236
|
+
|
|
237
|
+
### Language Conventions
|
|
238
|
+
|
|
239
|
+
| English | Chinese |
|
|
240
|
+
|---------|---------|
|
|
241
|
+
| Beat estimates | 超预期 |
|
|
242
|
+
| Miss estimates | 低于预期 |
|
|
243
|
+
| In-line | 符合预期 |
|
|
244
|
+
| Year-over-year | 同比 |
|
|
245
|
+
| Quarter-over-quarter | 环比 |
|
|
246
|
+
| Adjusted | 调整后 |
|
|
247
|
+
| Recurring | 经常性 |
|
|
248
|
+
| One-time | 一次性 |
|
|
249
|
+
| Core | 核心 / 扣非 |
|
|
250
|
+
|
|
251
|
+
## Quality Checks
|
|
252
|
+
|
|
253
|
+
Before delivering:
|
|
254
|
+
- [ ] All actuals verified from source
|
|
255
|
+
- [ ] Consensus figures cited
|
|
256
|
+
- [ ] Variances calculated correctly
|
|
257
|
+
- [ ] Drivers identified and explained
|
|
258
|
+
- [ ] Balance sheet / CF covered
|
|
259
|
+
- [ ] Forward outlook included
|
|
260
|
+
- [ ] Risks highlighted
|
|
261
|
+
- [ ] Chinese terminology correct
|
|
262
|
+
> 取数档位(接哪家数据服务、用哪个密钥)由宿主的凭据域决定:这份点评不配置它,也不向使用者索取凭据。
|