@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.3 → 2.7.5

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Files changed (81) hide show
  1. package/CHANGELOG.md +100 -0
  2. package/README.md +17 -7
  3. package/THIRD_PARTY_NOTICES.md +71 -24
  4. package/capital-config/client.js +4 -4
  5. package/capital-config/package.json +1 -1
  6. package/capital-watchlist/package.json +1 -1
  7. package/chart-ui/package.json +1 -1
  8. package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.d.ts +1 -1
  9. package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.js +1 -1
  10. package/lib/web-retriever/sources.d.ts +1 -1
  11. package/lib/web-retriever/sources.js +1 -1
  12. package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.d.ts +1 -1
  13. package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.js +1 -1
  14. package/package.json +2 -1
  15. package/selected-skills/README.md +6 -1
  16. package/selected-skills/catalog.js +176 -0
  17. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/LICENSE +201 -0
  18. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/UPSTREAM.md +173 -0
  19. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-3-statement-model/SKILL.md +287 -0
  20. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-accrual-schedule/SKILL.md +182 -0
  21. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-audit-xls/SKILL.md +231 -0
  22. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-break-trace/SKILL.md +217 -0
  23. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/SKILL.md +258 -0
  24. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-clean-data-xls/SKILL.md +237 -0
  25. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-comps/SKILL.md +104 -0
  26. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-comps-analysis/SKILL.md +196 -0
  27. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-dcf/SKILL.md +81 -0
  28. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-dcf-model/SKILL.md +68 -0
  29. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-deal-screening/SKILL.md +212 -0
  30. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-deck-refresh/SKILL.md +221 -0
  31. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-earnings-analysis/SKILL.md +237 -0
  32. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-earnings-preview/SKILL.md +239 -0
  33. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-gl-recon/SKILL.md +232 -0
  34. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-ib-check-deck/SKILL.md +252 -0
  35. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/SKILL.md +277 -0
  36. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-initiating-coverage/SKILL.md +271 -0
  37. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-lbo-model/SKILL.md +273 -0
  38. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-market-data/SKILL.md +229 -0
  39. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-model-update/SKILL.md +219 -0
  40. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-morning-note/SKILL.md +227 -0
  41. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-ppt-template-creator/SKILL.md +231 -0
  42. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-pptx-author/SKILL.md +240 -0
  43. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-roll-forward/SKILL.md +189 -0
  44. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-sector-overview/SKILL.md +257 -0
  45. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-skill-creator/SKILL.md +304 -0
  46. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-tax-loss-harvesting/SKILL.md +200 -0
  47. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-thesis-tracker/SKILL.md +237 -0
  48. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-variance-commentary/SKILL.md +262 -0
  49. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-xlsx-author/SKILL.md +256 -0
  50. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/fund-admin/skills/china-accrual-schedule/SKILL.md +190 -0
  51. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/fund-admin/skills/china-break-trace/SKILL.md +182 -0
  52. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/fund-admin/skills/china-gl-recon/SKILL.md +200 -0
  53. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/fund-admin/skills/china-nav-tieout/SKILL.md +233 -0
  54. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/fund-admin/skills/china-roll-forward/SKILL.md +178 -0
  55. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/fund-admin/skills/china-variance-commentary/SKILL.md +190 -0
  56. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-buyer-list/SKILL.md +198 -0
  57. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-cim-builder/SKILL.md +223 -0
  58. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-competitive-analysis/SKILL.md +233 -0
  59. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-datapack-builder/SKILL.md +232 -0
  60. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-deal-tracker/SKILL.md +151 -0
  61. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-merger-model/SKILL.md +226 -0
  62. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-pitch-deck/SKILL.md +231 -0
  63. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-process-letter/SKILL.md +249 -0
  64. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-strip-profile/SKILL.md +196 -0
  65. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/investment-banking/skills/china-teaser/SKILL.md +235 -0
  66. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/operations/skills/china-kyc-doc-parse/SKILL.md +252 -0
  67. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/operations/skills/china-kyc-rules/SKILL.md +223 -0
  68. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-ai-readiness/SKILL.md +184 -0
  69. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-dd-checklist/SKILL.md +217 -0
  70. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-dd-meeting-prep/SKILL.md +290 -0
  71. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-deal-sourcing/SKILL.md +224 -0
  72. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-ic-memo/SKILL.md +230 -0
  73. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-portfolio-monitoring/SKILL.md +214 -0
  74. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-returns-analysis/SKILL.md +176 -0
  75. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-unit-economics/SKILL.md +192 -0
  76. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-value-creation-plan/SKILL.md +193 -0
  77. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/wealth-management/skills/china-client-report/SKILL.md +205 -0
  78. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/wealth-management/skills/china-client-review/SKILL.md +218 -0
  79. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/wealth-management/skills/china-financial-plan/SKILL.md +259 -0
  80. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/wealth-management/skills/china-investment-proposal/SKILL.md +271 -0
  81. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/wealth-management/skills/china-portfolio-rebalance/SKILL.md +191 -0
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+ ---
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+ name: china-tax-loss-harvesting
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+ description: Tax-loss harvesting strategies for A-share portfolios. Adapts the original tax-loss-harvesting skill for Chinese tax rules, A-share market conventions, and domestic tax treatment. Triggers on "A股税务亏损抵扣", "亏损抵扣", "tax loss harvesting China", "税务优化", "亏损抵扣策略", or "harvest tax losses [portfolio]".
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+ ---
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+
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+ # china-tax-loss-harvesting
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+
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+ ## Purpose
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+
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+ Implement **A股税务亏损抵扣** — systematic tax-loss harvesting for Chinese investment portfolios.
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+
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+ ## Data Sources
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+
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+ ### Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
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+
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+ ```python
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+ get_quote(ticker) → Current prices for holdings
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+ get_historical_data(ticker) → Cost basis / purchase history
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+ ```
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+
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+ ### Secondary Sources
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+ - Broker records — cost basis, trade history
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+ - Tax filings — prior year losses
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+ - 交易所 — tax treatment rules
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+
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+ ## Workflow
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+
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+ ### Step 1: Identify Tax-Loss Positions
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+
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+ **Loss identification:**
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+
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+ | Position | Ticker | Cost Basis | Current Value | Unrealized Loss | Loss % |
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+ |----------|--------|-----------|--------------|-----------------|--------|
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+ | | | ¥XX | ¥XX | ¥XX | X% |
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+
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+ **Loss screening criteria:**
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+ - Unrealized loss > 10% of cost basis
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+ - Loss amount significant relative to portfolio
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+ - Holding period appropriate for tax treatment
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+
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+ ### Step 2: Understand A-share Tax Rules
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+
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+ **China tax treatment for securities:**
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+
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+ | Item | Tax Rate | Notes |
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+ |------|----------|-------|
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+ | 证券买卖价差 | **暂免** (temporarily exempt) | Capital gains on stocks |
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+ | 股息红利 | 20% (持股>1年减半至10%, >1年免征) | Dividend tax |
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+ | 基金分红 | 暂免 (some funds) | Fund distributions |
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+ | 买卖印花税 | 0.05% (seller only) | Stamp duty |
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+ | 证券交易佣金 | 0.02-0.03% | Commission |
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+
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+ **Current status of capital gains tax:**
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+ - Individuals: Capital gains on stocks are currently **temporarily exempt** (暂免征收)
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+ - However, losses can be used to offset gains within the same year
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+ - Loss carryforward rules may apply
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+
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+ ### Step 3: Calculate Tax Benefit
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+
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+ **Tax benefit calculation:**
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+
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+ | Scenario | Gain | Loss | Taxable Gain | Tax Saved |
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+ |----------|------|------|--------------|-----------|
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+ | Without TLH | ¥XX | — | ¥XX | — |
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+ | With TLH | ¥XX | ¥XX | ¥XX | ¥XX |
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+ | **Benefit** | | | | **¥XX** |
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+
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+ **Note:** In the current A-share environment where capital gains are largely exempt, tax-loss harvesting benefits may be limited. However:
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+ - Harvesting losses can be valuable if tax rules change
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+ - Offsetting gains within the same year
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+ - Potential future tax benefit if capital gains tax is introduced
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+
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+ ### Step 4: Identify Replacement Securities
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+
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+ **Replacement criteria:**
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+
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+ | Criterion | Requirement |
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+ |-----------|-------------|
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+ | Same sector | Similar industry exposure |
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+ | Similar characteristics | Market cap, growth, quality |
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+ | Not substantially identical | Avoid wash sale rules |
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+ | Tax-efficient | Consider dividend treatment |
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+
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+ **Wash sale considerations (China):**
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+ - No explicit wash sale rule currently
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+ - However, substantially identical securities may be disallowed
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+ - Best practice: 30-day waiting period
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+
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+ ### Step 5: Execution Strategy
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+
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+ **Execution options:**
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+
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+ | Strategy | Description | Pros | Cons |
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+ |----------|-------------|------|------|
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+ | Full exit | Sell and replace | Clean loss realization | Market risk |
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+ | Partial exit | Reduce position | Partial benefit | Partial benefit only |
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+ | Swap | Sell loss, buy similar | Maintain exposure | Timing risk |
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+ | Delay | Wait for recovery | No transaction costs | Missed opportunity |
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+
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+ ### Step 6: Implementation Plan
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+
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+ **Step-by-step plan:**
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+
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+ | Step | Action | Timing |
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+ |------|--------|--------|
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+ | 1 | Identify loss positions | Pre-year-end |
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+ | 2 | Evaluate replacement options | Pre-year-end |
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+ | 3 | Check wash sale rules | Pre-year-end |
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+ | 4 | Execute sales | Before year-end |
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+ | 5 | Execute purchases | After sale (or simultaneously) |
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+ | 6 | Document transactions | Immediately |
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+ | 7 | File tax forms | Tax filing deadline |
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+
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+ ### Step 7: Document for Tax Filing
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+
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+ **Required documentation:**
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+
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+ | Document | Content |
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+ |----------|---------|
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+ | Trade confirmations | Sale and purchase tickets |
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+ | Cost basis records | Purchase prices, dates |
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+ | Loss calculations | Realized loss amounts |
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+ | Replacement securities | Identified alternatives |
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+ | Market rationale | Investment thesis |
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+
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+ ### Step 8: Year-End Checklist
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+
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+ **Year-end TLH checklist:**
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+
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+ | Date | Action |
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+ |------|--------|
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+ | Nov | Review portfolio for loss positions |
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+ | Dec 1-15 | Identify replacement securities |
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+ | Dec 15-20 | Execute loss sales |
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+ | Dec 20-31 | Execute replacements |
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+ | Dec 31 | Final portfolio review |
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+ | Jan | File tax documentation |
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+
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+ ## China-Specific TLH Considerations
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+
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+ ### Current Tax Environment
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+
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+ | Factor | Status | Implication |
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+ |--------|--------|-------------|
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+ | 资本利得税 | 暂免 (temporarily exempt) | Limited current benefit |
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+ | 印花税 | 0.05% | Cost on sale |
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+ | 股息红利税 | 20% (10% for >1yr) | Consider in replacement |
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+ | 交易佣金 | 0.02-0.03% | Trading cost |
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+
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+ ### When TLH Makes Sense in China
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+
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+ | Scenario | Benefit |
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+ |----------|---------|
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+ | Offset short-term gains | Use losses against gains |
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+ | Reset cost basis | Lower future gains if taxed |
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+ | Prepare for tax changes | If capital gains taxed in future |
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+ | Portfolio rebalancing | Combine with rebalancing |
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+
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+ ### A-share Market Timing
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+
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+ | Consideration | Guidance |
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+ |--------------|----------|
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+ | 年末效应 | Year-end selling pressure |
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+ | 涨跌停限制 | May prevent execution |
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+ | 流动性 | Ensure liquidity for exit |
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+ | 政策窗口 | Tax policy change risk |
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+
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+ ## TLH for Different Client Types
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+
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+ ### Individual Investors
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+
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+ | Consideration | Guidance |
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+ |---------------|----------|
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+ | 持股期限 | >1 year for dividend tax benefit |
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+ | 高频交易 | May trigger scrutiny |
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+ | 金额门槛 | Focus on significant positions |
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+
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+ ### Institutional Investors
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+
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+ | Consideration | Guidance |
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+ |---------------|----------|
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+ | 交易成本 | Factor in commission impact |
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+ | 市场冲击 | Large position impact |
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+ | 会计处理 | NAV impact timing |
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+ | 合规审查 | Documentation requirements |
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+
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+ ## Quality Checks
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+
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+ Before executing:
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+ - [ ] Loss positions identified
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+ - [ ] Tax benefit calculated
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+ - [ ] Replacement securities identified
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+ - [ ] Wash sale rules considered
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+ - [ ] Execution plan clear
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+ - [ ] Documentation prepared
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+ - [ ] Timing appropriate
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+ > **Data Source Mode Switch**: Set env var `IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE` to control data source preference.
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+ > - `ifind-only` (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
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+ > - `ifind-fallback` (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
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+ > - `akshare-only, wind-only (Wind only), wind-fallback (Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare)`: Skip iFind, use AkShare only
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+ ---
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+ name: china-thesis-tracker
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+ description: Maintain and update investment theses for A-share portfolio positions and watchlist names. Track key data points, catalysts, milestones, and thesis validity over time. Adapted from the original thesis-tracker skill for Chinese market conventions. Triggers on "A股持仓逻辑跟踪", "投资逻辑更新", "thesis check China", "update thesis for [company]", "is my thesis still intact", or "A股持仓复盘".
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+ ---
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+
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+ # china-thesis-tracker
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+
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+ ## Purpose
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+
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+ Track and maintain **A股投资逻辑/thesis** for portfolio positions and watchlist names, ensuring thesis validity is continuously monitored.
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+
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+ ## Data Sources
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+
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+ ### Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
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+
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+ ```python
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+ get_quote(ticker) → Current price, valuation
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+ get_historical_data(ticker) → Price trajectory
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+ get_financials(ticker, "income") → Financial performance
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+ # News (china-news MCP — separate server)
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+ get_stock_news(ticker="{{TICKER}}") → News affecting thesis
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+ get_industry_stocks(industry="...") → Peer context
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+ ```
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+
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+ ### Secondary Sources
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+
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+ - 巨潮公告 — corporate actions and filings
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+ - 业绩说明会 — management commentary
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+ - 券商研报 — analyst updates
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+ - Wind / Choice — ownership and flow data
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+
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+ ## Workflow
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+
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+ ### Step 1: Define / Load Thesis
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+
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+ **Thesis statement template:**
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+
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+ ```
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+ 公司:[Company]([Ticker])
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+ 行业:[Industry]
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+ 方向:[Long / Short / Watch]
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+
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+ 核心投资逻辑 (3-5 bullet points):
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+ 1. [Key driver 1]
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+ 2. [Key driver 2]
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+ 3. [Key driver 3]
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+
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+ 目标价:¥XX.XX (X% upside/downside)
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+ 时间 horizon:[6M / 1Y / 2Y]
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+ 置信度:[High / Medium / Low]
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+ ```
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+
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+ **Thesis components:**
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+
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+ | Component | Description | Example |
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+ |-----------|-------------|---------|
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+ | 核心逻辑 (Core thesis) | Why will the stock move? | 批价上行驱动盈利超预期 |
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+ | 关键假设 (Key assumptions) | What must be true? | 批价 >1000元, 动销增速 >15% |
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+ | 催化剂 (Catalysts) | What triggers re-rating? | Q1业绩, 批价数据, 政策变化 |
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+ | 风险因素 (Risks) | What could break the thesis? | 批价下行, 竞品放量, 政策风险 |
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+ | 目标价 (Target) | Fair value estimate | ¥2000 (基于25x PE) |
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+ | 止损位 (Stop loss) | Downside risk limit | ¥1500 (对应20x PE) |
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+
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+ ### Step 2: Track Key Data Points
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+
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+ **Company-specific KPIs:**
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+
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+ | KPI | Frequency | Source | Trend |
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+ |-----|-----------|--------|-------|
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+ | e.g., 批价 | Weekly | 渠道调研, 新闻 | ↑ / → / ↓ |
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+ | e.g., 动销增速 | Monthly | 经销商反馈 | ↑ / → / ↓ |
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+ | e.g., 产能利用率 | Quarterly | 年报/中报 | ↑ / → / ↓ |
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+
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+ **Financial metrics to track:**
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+
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+ | Metric | Last Reported | Trend | Thesis Impact |
77
+ |--------|--------------|-------|---------------|
78
+ | Revenue growth | | | |
79
+ | Gross margin | | | |
80
+ | Net margin | | | |
81
+ | ROE | | | |
82
+ | Net debt/EBITDA | | | |
83
+
84
+ **Market metrics:**
85
+
86
+ | Metric | Current | 52W High | 52W Low | Thesis Relevance |
87
+ |--------|---------|----------|---------|------------------|
88
+ | Stock price | | | | |
89
+ | Market cap | | | | |
90
+ | PE (TTM) | | | | |
91
+ | PB | | | | |
92
+ | YTD return | | | | |
93
+
94
+ ### Step 3: Monitor Catalysts
95
+
96
+ **Catalyst checklist:**
97
+
98
+ | Catalyst | Expected Date | Status | Outcome | Thesis Impact |
99
+ |----------|--------------|--------|---------|----------------|
100
+ | Q1 季报 | Apr 25 | Pending | | |
101
+ | 批价数据 | Weekly | Ongoing | 稳定在980元 | Positive |
102
+ | 股东大会 | May 15 | Scheduled | | |
103
+
104
+ **Catalyst outcome assessment:**
105
+ - **Confirming**: Result supports thesis → increase conviction
106
+ - **Neutral**: Result as expected → maintain position
107
+ - **Breaking**: Result contradicts thesis → reduce/exit position
108
+
109
+ ### Step 4: Thesis Validity Check
110
+
111
+ **Regular review questions:**
112
+
113
+ 1. **Has the thesis changed?**
114
+ - Core drivers still intact?
115
+ - New information adding to or subtracting from thesis?
116
+
117
+ 2. **Are assumptions still valid?**
118
+ - Key assumptions: still on track?
119
+ - Any material change to underlying business?
120
+
121
+ 3. **Is the timing right?**
122
+ - Catalyst timeline progressing as expected?
123
+ - Market pricing in the thesis?
124
+
125
+ 4. **Is the risk/reward still favorable?**
126
+ - Upside/downside ratio updated?
127
+ - Entry price still reasonable?
128
+
129
+ 5. **Should thesis be adjusted?**
130
+ - Target price update
131
+ - Risk factors added/removed
132
+ - Time horizon extended/contracted
133
+
134
+ ### Step 5: Thesis Status
135
+
136
+ **Status categories:**
137
+
138
+ | Status | Definition | Action |
139
+ |--------|-----------|--------|
140
+ | Intact (逻辑 intact) | All assumptions hold, catalysts on track | Maintain / add on weakness |
141
+ | Under pressure (承压) | Some assumptions challenged, thesis not broken | Monitor closely, define exit criteria |
142
+ | Broken (逻辑破) | Core thesis invalidated | Exit position, document lessons |
143
+ | Evolving (演进中) | Thesis needs update based on new info | Update thesis statement, re-evaluate |
144
+
145
+ ### Step 6: Update Documentation
146
+
147
+ **Thesis update log:**
148
+
149
+ ```
150
+ [公司] 投资逻辑更新 [Date]
151
+
152
+ 一、当前状态:[Intact / Under pressure / Broken / Evolving]
153
+
154
+ 二、本期间重要变化:
155
+ - [Change 1]: [Impact on thesis]
156
+ - [Change 2]: [Impact on thesis]
157
+
158
+ 三、数据追踪:
159
+ [Key metrics updated]
160
+
161
+ 四、催化剂进展:
162
+ [Catalyst status update]
163
+
164
+ 五、决策:
165
+ - [Maintain / Add / Reduce / Exit]
166
+ - [Rationale]
167
+
168
+ 六、后续关注:
169
+ - [Next check-in date]
170
+ - [Key metrics to watch]
171
+ ```
172
+
173
+ ### Step 7: Portfolio-Level Review
174
+
175
+ **Aggregate view:**
176
+
177
+ | Position | Thesis Status | Conviction | Days Held | P&L | Next Catalyst | Action |
178
+ |----------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----|---------------|--------|
179
+ | | | | | | | |
180
+
181
+ **Portfolio-level insights:**
182
+ - Which theses are working? Common factors?
183
+ - Which theses are breaking? Common risks?
184
+ - Concentration risk (too many bets on similar thesis?)
185
+ - Hedge effectiveness ( shorts protecting longs?)
186
+
187
+ ## China-Specific Thesis Considerations
188
+
189
+ ### Common A-share Thesis Types
190
+
191
+ | Thesis Type | Description | Key Metrics |
192
+ |-------------|-------------|-------------|
193
+ | 批价上行 | Liquor sector price appreciation | 批价, 库存, 动销 |
194
+ | 国产替代 | Import substitution | 市场份额, 认证进展 |
195
+ | 产能出清 | Industry capacity rationalization | 产能利用率, 价格 |
196
+ | 政策利好 | Policy tailwind | 政策落地, 补贴 |
197
+ | 困境反转 | Distressed turnaround | 债务重组, 新管理层 |
198
+ | 行业整合 | M&A consolidation | 集中度, 并购活动 |
199
+ | 技术突破 | Technology breakthrough | 专利, 订单 |
200
+ | 消费升级 | Premiumization | ASP, 产品结构 |
201
+
202
+ ### A-share Market Risks to Track
203
+
204
+ | Risk Type | Indicator | Mitigation |
205
+ |-----------|-----------|------------|
206
+ | 政策风险 (Policy) | Regulatory announcements | Diversify across sectors |
207
+ | 系统性风险 (Systemic) | 上证指数 drawdown | Hedging, cash position |
208
+ | 流动性风险 (Liquidity) | Margin balances, turnover | Avoid illiquid names |
209
+ | 解禁风险 (Lock-up) | Unlocking calendar | Avoid near-term unlocks |
210
+ | 质押风险 (Pledging) | Shareholder pledge ratio | Check F10 data |
211
+ | 商誉风险 (Goodwill) | Goodwill/equity ratio | Flag high goodwill names |
212
+
213
+ ### Typical A-share Thesis Lifecycle
214
+
215
+ ```
216
+ Week 1-2: Initial idea, data gathering
217
+ Week 3-4: Thesis formation, model build
218
+ Week 5-8: Position establishment, catalyst tracking
219
+ Week 9-16: Thesis validation / adjustment
220
+ Week 17+: Outcome assessment, exit decision
221
+ ```
222
+
223
+ ## Quality Checks
224
+
225
+ Before delivering thesis update:
226
+ - [ ] Thesis statement clear and specific
227
+ - [ ] Key assumptions listed and tracked
228
+ - [ ] Catalysts documented with dates
229
+ - [ ] Financial metrics current
230
+ - [ ] Price trajectory analyzed
231
+ - [ ] Risk factors updated
232
+ - [ ] Action recommendation clear
233
+ - [ ] Next review date set
234
+ > **Data Source Mode Switch**: Set env var `IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE` to control data source preference.
235
+ > - `ifind-only` (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
236
+ > - `ifind-fallback` (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
237
+ > - `akshare-only`: Skip iFind, use AkShare only
@@ -0,0 +1,262 @@
1
+ ---
2
+ name: china-variance-commentary
3
+ description: Write variance commentary for A-share financial results. Adapts the original variance-commentary skill for Chinese financial statements, CAS conventions, and Chinese business terminology. Triggers on "A股业绩点评", "财报点评", "variance commentary China", "业绩分析", "variances [company]", or "commentary on [company] results".
4
+ ---
5
+
6
+ # china-variance-commentary
7
+
8
+ > 本文件相对上游 `d7585ca` 快照做过合规改写(取数与凭据口径),逐条记在快照根目录的 UPSTREAM.md;方法论、阈值与输出模板未改。
9
+
10
+ ## Purpose
11
+
12
+ Write professional **A股业绩点评** — structured variance commentary on Chinese company financial results.
13
+
14
+ ## Data Sources
15
+
16
+ Commentary explains numbers; it does not obtain them. This plugin retrieves through exactly one entry — the main agent delegating to the role that owns structured data or disclosure material — and no data-service key is held or requested here.
17
+
18
+ Brief the retrieval path with the ticker, the fields, and one as-of date:
19
+
20
+ - 实际数:利润表 (收入、归母净利、毛利率、费用率)、资产负债表、现金流量表, on the reported period plus the year-ago and prior-quarter comparatives the table needs
21
+ - 行情背景:最新价与区间表现, so the commentary can say how the print landed
22
+ - 原始披露:定期报告正文与 业绩快报 / 业绩预告、管理层说明
23
+ - 预期参照:券商研报条目里的预测字段, which is one house's forecast, not a market consensus
24
+
25
+ | 参照 | 它是什么 |
26
+ |------|----------|
27
+ | 券商研报预测 | 单家口径的预测值 |
28
+ | 公司 业绩预告 / 快报 | 披露出来的方向或区间 |
29
+ | 去年同期与自己先前预测 | 差异的另一个基线 |
30
+
31
+ There is no 一致预期 endpoint in this plugin. When no expectation comes back, write the variance against 去年同期、先前口径与披露区间, label the comparison as such, and leave the Consensus column empty — a commentary built on an assumed consensus is not commentary, it is a guess wearing a table.
32
+
33
+ ## Workflow
34
+
35
+ ### Step 1: Gather Actuals and Estimates
36
+
37
+ **Data collection:**
38
+
39
+ | Metric | Actual (Actuals) | Consensus (一致预期) | Prior | YoY | QoQ |
40
+ |--------|-----------------|---------------------|-------|-----|-----|
41
+ | 营业收入 | | | | | |
42
+ | 毛利率 | | | | | |
43
+ | 归母净利润 | | | | | |
44
+ | 扣非净利润 | | | | | |
45
+ | EPS | | | | | |
46
+ | 经营现金流 | | | | | |
47
+
48
+ ### Step 2: Variance Analysis
49
+
50
+ **Variance table:**
51
+
52
+ | Metric | Actual | Consensus | Variance | % vs Cons | % vs Prior | Impact |
53
+ |--------|--------|-----------|----------|-----------|------------|--------|
54
+ | 营业收入 | | | | | | |
55
+ | 毛利率 | | | | | | |
56
+ | 归母净利润 | | | | | | |
57
+ | 扣非净利润 | | | | | | |
58
+ | EPS | | | | | | |
59
+ | ROE | | | | | | |
60
+
61
+ **Variance classification:**
62
+
63
+ | Variance | Classification | Commentary |
64
+ |----------|---------------|------------|
65
+ | Revenue +5% vs cons | Slight beat | |
66
+ | Revenue +15% vs cons | Strong beat | |
67
+ | Revenue -5% vs cons | Slight miss | |
68
+ | Revenue -15% vs cons | Significant miss | |
69
+
70
+ ### Step 3: Driver Analysis
71
+
72
+ **Key drivers decomposition:**
73
+
74
+ **Revenue drivers:**
75
+ ```
76
+ 收入变动 = 量增 + 价增 + 产品结构 + 收购/处置
77
+
78
+ 分解:
79
+ 1. 销量变化: +X% (驱动因素)
80
+ 2. 价格变化: +X% (提价/促销)
81
+ 3. 产品组合: +X% (高毛利产品占比提升)
82
+ 4. 其他: +X% (并表/汇率)
83
+ ```
84
+
85
+ **Margin drivers:**
86
+ ```
87
+ 毛利率变动 = 原材料成本 + 人工成本 + 制造费用 + 产品结构
88
+
89
+ 分解:
90
+ 1. 原材料: -X ppts (价格上涨/下降)
91
+ 2. 人工: +X ppts (效率提升/人工成本上涨)
92
+ 3. 制造费用: +X ppts (产能利用率)
93
+ 4. 产品结构: +X ppts (高毛利产品占比)
94
+ 5. 其他: X ppts
95
+ ```
96
+
97
+ **Net profit bridge:**
98
+
99
+ ```
100
+ 归母净利润变动
101
+ ├── 营业收入影响: +¥XX万
102
+ ├── 毛利率影响: +¥XX万
103
+ ├── 费用率影响: +¥XX万
104
+ │ ├── 销售费用: -¥XX万
105
+ │ ├── 管理费用: +¥XX万
106
+ │ └── 研发费用: +¥XX万
107
+ ├── 其他收益影响: +¥XX万
108
+ ├── 投资收益影响: +¥XX万
109
+ ├── 减值损失影响: -¥XX万
110
+ ├── 营业外收支影响: +¥XX万
111
+ ├── 所得税影响: -¥XX万
112
+ └── 归母净利润变动: +¥XX万
113
+ ```
114
+
115
+ ### Step 4: Segment Commentary
116
+
117
+ **By segment:**
118
+
119
+ | Segment | Revenue | Growth | Margin | Comment |
120
+ |---------|---------|--------|--------|---------|
121
+ | | | | | |
122
+
123
+ **By geography:**
124
+
125
+ | Region | Revenue | Growth | Comment |
126
+ |--------|---------|--------|---------|
127
+ | 国内 | | | |
128
+ | 海外 | | | |
129
+
130
+ ### Step 5: Balance Sheet Commentary
131
+
132
+ **Key BS changes:**
133
+
134
+ | Item | Change | Driver | Impact |
135
+ |------|--------|--------|--------|
136
+ | 货币资金 | | | |
137
+ | 应收账款 | | | |
138
+ | 存货 | | | |
139
+ | 商誉 | | | |
140
+ | 有息负债 | | | |
141
+
142
+ ### Step 6: Cash Flow Commentary
143
+
144
+ **Cash flow analysis:**
145
+
146
+ | Item | Amount | Change | Comment |
147
+ |------|--------|--------|---------|
148
+ | 经营活动现金流 | | | |
149
+ | 投资活动现金流 | | | |
150
+ | 筹资活动现金流 | | | |
151
+ | 现金净增加额 | | | |
152
+
153
+ **Key observations:**
154
+ - OCF vs Net income comparison
155
+ - CapEx intensity
156
+ - Dividend payment
157
+ - Debt activity
158
+
159
+ ### Step 7: Forward-Looking Commentary
160
+
161
+ **Guidance and outlook:**
162
+
163
+ | Area | Commentary |
164
+ |------|-----------|
165
+ | 收入指引 | Management guidance |
166
+ | 利润指引 | Earnings outlook |
167
+ | 投资计划 | CapEx plans |
168
+ | 战略方向 | Strategic initiatives |
169
+
170
+ ### Step 8: Write the Commentary
171
+
172
+ **Standard format (业绩点评):**
173
+
174
+ ```
175
+ 【业绩点评】[Company] [Period] [Beat/Miss/In-line]
176
+
177
+ 核心结论:
178
+ - 营收XX亿, 同比+/-X%, 超/低于预期X%
179
+ - 归母净利润XX亿, 同比+/-X%, 超/低于预期X%
180
+ - 扣非净利润XX亿, 同比+/-X%
181
+
182
+ 要点:
183
+ 1. [Key driver 1]
184
+ 2. [Key driver 2]
185
+ 3. [Key driver 3]
186
+
187
+ 详细分析:
188
+
189
+ 一、营业收入
190
+ [Revenue commentary with drivers]
191
+
192
+ 二、盈利能力
193
+ [Margin analysis]
194
+
195
+ 三、费用分析
196
+ [Expense commentary]
197
+
198
+ 四、资产负债表
199
+ [Key BS changes]
200
+
201
+ 五、现金流量
202
+ [CF commentary]
203
+
204
+ 六、展望
205
+ [Forward-looking]
206
+
207
+ 风险提示:
208
+ - [Key risks]
209
+
210
+ 风险提示: 本内容仅供研究参考, 不构成投资建议。
211
+ ```
212
+
213
+ ## China-Specific Commentary Considerations
214
+
215
+ ### Key Metrics to Highlight
216
+
217
+ | Metric | Why Important |
218
+ |--------|---------------|
219
+ | 归母净利润 | Standard metric for A-share investors |
220
+ | 扣非净利润 | Shows core business quality |
221
+ | 经营现金流 | Cash generation quality |
222
+ | 毛利率/净利率 | Profitability trends |
223
+ | ROE | Return on equity benchmark |
224
+ | 资产负债率 | Leverage concern |
225
+
226
+ ### Common Earnings Themes
227
+
228
+ | Pattern | Typical Commentary |
229
+ |---------|-------------------|
230
+ | 收入增, 利润降 | Margin compression |
231
+ | 利润增, 现金流降 | Earnings quality concern |
232
+ | 高政府补助 | Sustainability question |
233
+ | 大额减值 | Asset quality |
234
+ | 关联交易高 | Revenue quality |
235
+ | 合同负债大增 | Future revenue visibility |
236
+
237
+ ### Language Conventions
238
+
239
+ | English | Chinese |
240
+ |---------|---------|
241
+ | Beat estimates | 超预期 |
242
+ | Miss estimates | 低于预期 |
243
+ | In-line | 符合预期 |
244
+ | Year-over-year | 同比 |
245
+ | Quarter-over-quarter | 环比 |
246
+ | Adjusted | 调整后 |
247
+ | Recurring | 经常性 |
248
+ | One-time | 一次性 |
249
+ | Core | 核心 / 扣非 |
250
+
251
+ ## Quality Checks
252
+
253
+ Before delivering:
254
+ - [ ] All actuals verified from source
255
+ - [ ] Consensus figures cited
256
+ - [ ] Variances calculated correctly
257
+ - [ ] Drivers identified and explained
258
+ - [ ] Balance sheet / CF covered
259
+ - [ ] Forward outlook included
260
+ - [ ] Risks highlighted
261
+ - [ ] Chinese terminology correct
262
+ > 取数档位(接哪家数据服务、用哪个密钥)由宿主的凭据域决定:这份点评不配置它,也不向使用者索取凭据。