@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.3 → 2.7.5

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-initiating-coverage/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: china-initiating-coverage
+description: Institutional-quality equity research initiation reports for A-share companies. Covers company analysis, financial modeling, valuation, chart preparation, and final report assembly. Adapted from the original initiating-coverage skill for Chinese market conventions, CAS accounting, and A-share disclosure practice. Triggers on "A股首次覆盖", "首次评级", "initiate coverage China", "initiate on [company]", "A股研究报告", or "start research on [company]".
+---
+
+# china-initiating-coverage
+
+> 本文件相对上游 `d7585ca` 快照做过合规改写（取数、凭据与出图口径），逐条记在快照根目录的 UPSTREAM.md；方法论、评级档位表与输出模板未改。
+
+## Purpose
+
+Create institutional-quality **A股首次覆盖研究报告**, following Chinese sell-side research standards.
+
+## Data Sources
+
+An initiation report is assembled from material this step does not fetch. The plugin has one retrieval entry — the main agent delegating to the role that owns structured data or disclosure and web material — and it holds no data-service key and issues no query from here.
+
+Send the briefs in families, each naming the ticker, the fields, and the as-of date:
+
+- 公司底色：profile、主营业务与股本结构
+- 行情与历史：最新估值、股价历史（估值分位与事件标注要用同一段区间）
+- 三表历史：利润表、资产负债表、现金流量表，长度按建模需要
+- 同业：所选分类口径下的成分股清单，以及同一批字段（一次 brief，别逐个问）
+- 披露与文档：定期报告与招股文件、上市与公告文件、投资者关系材料、已有的卖方覆盖
+- 行业口径：行业协会与统计口径的产业数据
+
+| 材料 | 由谁取 | 注意 |
+|------|--------|------|
+| 定期报告 / 公告 / 招股书 | 宿主的披露与网页检索（正文过长时由其解析成可读文本） | 引用落到具体文件与页码 |
+| 财务与行情数字 | 宿主结构化取数，回传为数据集引用 | 全套统一 as-of 日期 |
+| 预期参照 | 券商研报条目里的预测字段 | 单家口径，不是一致预期 |
+
+预期参照在本插件没有一致预期接口可取；取不到就把对比写在历史与披露上，并写明这是自家基线，不假称市场共识。任何字段没回来，就在那一节写成缺口，不用记忆里的数补。
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Task 1: Company Research
+
+**Company overview:**
+- Business description (主营业务)
+- History and development (发展历程)
+- Ownership structure (股权结构)
+- Management team (管理层)
+- Shareholder composition (股东构成)
+
+**Business segments:**
+
+| Segment | Revenue % | Margin | Growth Driver |
+|---------|-----------|--------|---------------|
+| | | | |
+
+**Key questions to answer:**
+1. What does the company do? How does it make money?
+2. What is its competitive advantage? (护城河)
+3. What are the key growth drivers?
+4. What are the main risks?
+5. Who are the comparable companies?
+
+### Task 2: Financial Modeling
+
+Build a financial model (refer to `china-3-statement-model` skill):
+
+**Historical analysis (3-5 years):**
+
+| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
+|--------|------|------|------|------|-------|-------|-------|
+| Revenue (亿) | | | | | | | |
+| YoY Growth | | | | | | | |
+| Gross Margin | | | | | | | |
+| Operating Margin | | | | | | | |
+| Net Margin | | | | | | | |
+| ROE | | | | | | | |
+| Net Debt/EBITDA | | | | | | | |
+
+**Key modeling considerations (see china-3-statement-model):**
+- CAS accounting standards
+- 25% tax rate (or 15% for 高新技术企业)
+- 千元 vs 元 unit normalization
+- 增值税 treatment
+- 商誉 flagging
+- R&D expense treatment
+
+### Task 3: Valuation Analysis
+
+**Build comprehensive valuation:**
+
+1. **DCF** (refer to `china-dcf` skill)
+   - WACC with CGB risk-free rate
+   - 6-8% China ERP
+   - 25% tax rate
+   - CNY denominated
+
+2. **Comparable companies** (refer to `china-comps` skill)
+   - Peer set from same 东方财富 industry
+   - PE, PB, PS, EV/EBITDA multiples
+   - Regression analysis if >5 peers
+
+3. **Precedent transactions** (if available)
+   - China M&A comparable multiples
+   - Control premium analysis
+
+4. **Sum-of-the-parts** (if multi-segment)
+   - Segment-level DCF or multiples
+   - Conglomerate discount assessment
+
+**Valuation summary:**
+
+| Method | Value (元/股) | Weight | Rationale |
+|--------|--------------|--------|-----------|
+| DCF | | | |
+| PE comps | | | |
+| PB comps | | | |
+| EV/EBITDA comps | | | |
+| SOTP | | | |
+| **Implied target** | | | |
+
+### Task 4: Chart Preparation
+
+**Required charts:**
+
+1. **Revenue & earnings history**
+   - 5-year historical + 3-year projected
+   - Bar chart: Revenue
+   - Overlay: Net income, margins
+
+2. **Valuation multiple history**
+   - PE band (5-year)
+   - PB band (5-year)
+   - Current vs historical average
+
+3. **Peer comparison**
+   - Scatter: Growth vs Multiple
+   - Bar: Key metrics vs peers
+
+4. **Share price chart**
+   - 2-year price history
+   - Key events annotated
+
+**Chart standards:**
+
+The four exhibits above say what an initiation report shows; they are **rendered by the host**, not drawn from this step. This plugin has one charting path — the role that owns visualization — and a report step hands it the series with the as-of window and the intent of each exhibit, then uses what comes back. Theme, styling, and label layout are that path's decisions, not this template's.
+
+- 交出去时说明图型意图：柱状 + 叠加、估值区间带、增长 vs 倍数散点、两年价格线
+- 中文标签与 A 股标注（涨跌停、财报日期）作为要求写进 brief，由出图角色落
+- 图的出处写回取数回来的那份记录（数据集引用或披露文件），不写服务商名
+
+### Task 5: Report Assembly
+
+**Standard A-share initiation report format:**
+
+```
+【XX证券】[公司名称]（[代码]）首次覆盖报告：[评级]
+
+投资要点：
+  - [3-5 bullet investment highlights]
+  - 目标价：¥XX.XX (X% upside/downside)
+  - 评级：买入/增持/中性/减持/卖出
+
+一、投资逻辑
+   [Core thesis, 2-3 paragraphs]
+
+二、公司分析
+   - 业务概述
+   - 竞争优势
+   - 管理团队
+   - 股权结构
+
+三、行业分析
+   - 市场规模与增速
+   - 竞争格局
+   - 政策环境
+   - 发展趋势
+
+四、财务分析
+   - 历史财务表现
+   - 盈利驱动因素
+   - 财务健康度
+   - 关键假设
+
+五、估值分析
+   - 估值方法概述
+   - DCF analysis
+   - Comparable companies
+   - Valuation summary
+   - Target price derivation
+
+六、风险提示
+   - [Company-specific risks]
+   - [Industry risks]
+   - [Market risks]
+   - [Policy risks]
+
+附录：
+   - 财务报表预测
+   - 详细估值模型
+   - 公司资料
+```
+
+**Report length:**
+- Summary: 1 page
+- Full report: 15-30 pages
+- Financial model appendix: 10-15 pages
+
+## China-Specific Considerations
+
+### Rating Conventions (A-share)
+
+| Rating | Chinese Equivalent | Implied Return |
+|--------|-------------------|----------------|
+| Buy | 买入 | >15% upside |
+| Overweight / Accumulate | 增持 | 5-15% upside |
+| Neutral / Hold | 中性 | -5% to +5% |
+| Underweight / Reduce | 减持 | -5% to -15% |
+| Sell | 卖出 | <-15% downside |
+
+**Note:** Some firms use 5-point scale (买入/增持/中性/减持/卖出), others use 3-point (买入/增持/减持).
+
+### Coverage Initiation Practices
+
+**Pre-initiation checklist:**
+- [ ] Company filings reviewed (年报, 招股说明书)
+- [ ] Management meeting completed (if possible)
+- [ ] Industry research thorough
+- [ ] Peer comparison complete
+- [ ] Financial model built and validated
+- [ ] Valuation analysis complete
+- [ ] Conflicts of interest disclosed
+
+**Common initation triggers:**
+- New IPO (新股)
+- IPO quiet period expiry (typically 30-180 days)
+- Market cap reaches coverage threshold
+- New sector coverage mandate
+- Material corporate action (M&A, restructuring)
+
+### China-Specific Risks to Highlight
+
+| Risk Category | Examples |
+|--------------|---------|
+| 政策风险 | Regulatory changes, industry policy shifts |
+| 市场风险 | A-share volatility, retail sentiment |
+| 流动性风险 | Low float, low turnover |
+| 公司治理 | Related party transactions, pledge risk |
+| 行业风险 | Overcapacity, demand cyclicality |
+| 汇率风险 | For exporters/importers |
+| 商誉减值 | Goodwill impairment risk |
+| 质押风险 | Share pledge unwinding |
+
+### Regulatory Compliance
+
+**Chinese regulatory requirements for research:**
+- 投资者适当性管理 (suitability)
+- 利益冲突披露 (conflict of interest)
+- 研究报告留痕 (research record retention)
+- 静默期规定 (quiet period before IPOs)
+- 预测免责声明 (disclaimer on estimates)
+
+## Quality Checks
+
+Before delivering:
+- [ ] Every figure traces back to what the host's retrieval path returned (a dataset reference or a filing), or is written up as a gap
+- [ ] Financial model balanced and validated
+- [ ] Valuation analysis comprehensive
+- [ ] Peer comparison adequate (>3 peers)
+- [ ] Rating and target price justified
+- [ ] Risk factors comprehensive
+- [ ] Report follows standard format
+- [ ] All citations complete
+- [ ] Compliance disclosures included
+> 取数档位（接哪家数据服务、用哪个密钥）由宿主的凭据域决定：这份报告不配置它，也不向使用者索取凭据。
+> 报告里的评级五档与目标价是把上面这些材料写成一个结论的**推演练习**：本插件不据它下单，也不给仓位。

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-lbo-model/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: china-lbo-model
+description: Leveraged buyout model for A-share and China-market LBO scenarios. Adapts the standard LBO-model methodology for Chinese debt markets, CAS accounting, and AkShare data. Use instead of the original lbo-model skill when analyzing leveraged buyouts involving Chinese targets or China-based sponsors.
+---
+
+# china-lbo-model
+
+## Purpose
+
+Build institutional-quality LBO models for transactions in the China market, accounting for:
+- Chinese debt market structures (bank loans, 公司债, 中期票据)
+- CAS accounting standards
+- A-share trading restrictions and considerations
+- China-specific tax treatment
+
+## Key Differences from US LBO Models
+
+| Parameter | US LBO | China LBO |
+|-----------|--------|-----------|
+| Debt market | Public bonds, institutional loans | Bank syndicated loans, 公司债, ABS |
+| Typical leverage | 5-7x EBITDA | 3-5x EBITDA (bank-driven) |
+| High-yield market | Developed | Limited (mostly onshore/offshore 高收益债) |
+| Covenant package | Bond covenants, bank covenants | Primarily bank-led covenants |
+| Management roll | Standard | Often 管理层持股 + earn-out |
+| Tax rate | 21% federal | 25% standard (高新技术企业 15%) |
+| Currency | USD | CNY (人民币) |
+| Accounting | US GAAP / IFRS | CAS (企业会计准则) |
+
+## Data Sources
+
+### Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
+
+```python
+get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual")   → 利润表 (EBIT, Net Income)
+get_financials(ticker, "balance", "annual")  → 资产负债表 (Debt, Cash)
+get_financials(ticker, "cashflow", "annual") → 现金流量表 (FCF, CapEx)
+get_quote(ticker)                            → Current valuation
+get_historical_data(ticker)                  → Trading history
+get_stock_info(ticker)                       → Company profile
+```
+
+### Secondary Sources
+- 巨潮资讯 — public filings for historicals
+- 公司公告 — debt agreements, covenant packages
+- 银行间市场交易商协会 — bond issuance data
+- Wind / 同花顺 — comparable transaction multiples
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Step 1: Company & Transaction Setup
+
+**Transaction Structure (China-specific):**
+
+- **Buyer type**: 战略投资者 (strategic) vs 财务投资者 (financial sponsor)
+- ** Listed status**: A-share delisting process vs 借壳上市 (reverse merger)
+- **Deal structure**: 股权收购 vs 资产收购 vs 吸收合并
+- **Lock-up**: 限售期 considerations (typically 12-36 months)
+
+**Entry Valuation:**
+- Current market cap (流通市值 or 总市值)
+- Control premium benchmark: 20-40% typical for China M&A (vs 20-30% US)
+- Take-private premium for A-share delistings: 30-50%
+
+### Step 2: Sources & Uses
+
+**Sources:**
+- Senior debt (银行借款): 40-60% of total consideration
+- Subordinated debt / 夹层融资: 5-15%
+- Equity ( sponsor equity ): 30-50%
+- Revolver (循环额度): 10-20% of EBITDA
+- Seller note / 卖方分期付款: common in China
+
+**Uses:**
+- Purchase equity
+- Refinance existing debt
+- Transaction fees (typically higher in China: 2-4%)
+- 印花税 (stamp tax): 0.05% on equity transfer
+- 增值税 on asset deals: 6% (一般纳税人) or 3% (小规模纳税人)
+
+**China-specific cost items:**
+- 印花税 (Stamp tax): 0.05% of deal value for equity transfers
+- 契税 (Deed tax): 3-5% for asset acquisitions
+- 土地增值税 (Land appreciation tax): for real estate assets
+- 中介费用 (Advisory fees): typically 1.5-3% for IB, legal, accounting
+
+### Step 3: Operating Model
+
+Build 5-year projections following standard LBO methodology:
+
+**Revenue assumptions:**
+- Historical growth rate baseline
+- Synergy adjustments (cost savings, revenue uplift)
+- China-specific factors:
+  - 产能利用率 (capacity utilization) trends
+  - 新产能投放 (new capacity ramp)
+  - 市场份额变化 (market share dynamics)
+
+**Margin assumptions:**
+- Gross margin: track 毛利率
+- Operating margin: 营业利润率
+- Note: Chinese industrial companies often have thinner margins than Western peers
+
+**Working capital:**
+- 应收账款 (AR) days — often elevated in China
+- 存货 (Inventory) days — FIFO only (no LIFO under CAS)
+- 应付账款 (AP) days
+- Net working capital as % of revenue change
+
+**CapEx:**
+- 资本支出 intensity (Chinese industrials often capex-heavy)
+- Maintenance vs growth CapEx split
+
+### Step 4: Debt Schedule
+
+**China-specific debt structures:**
+
+1. **Senior secured bank loan (银行借款)**
+   - Typically 3-5 year tenor
+   - SOFR/LPR + spread (1-3%)
+   - Covenants: 资产负债率, 利息覆盖倍数, 流动比率
+   - Amortization: typically 1-3% per year (bullet maturity)
+
+2. **Subordinated debt / 夹层融资**
+   - Mezzanine structures gaining market share
+   - 10-15% coupon typical
+   - Often includes equity kicker (认股权证)
+
+3. **High-yield bonds / 高收益债**
+   - Limited market, mostly offshore
+   - 7-12% coupon range
+   - 3-5 year maturity
+
+4. **Revolver (循环贷款)**
+   - Based on 应收账款 or 存货 collateral
+   - LTV: 50-70% of eligible collateral
+
+**Interest calculation:**
+- Average debt balance method or daily balance
+- LIBOR/SOFR replaced with LPR for onshore RMB loans
+- Add credit spread based on company rating
+
+### Step 5: Returns Analysis
+
+**IRR calculation** (same methodology as US LBO):
+- Sponsor equity contributions
+- Dividend recapitalizations
+- Exit proceeds
+
+**MOIC calculation**:
+- Total cash returned / Total cash invested
+
+**Exit multiples:**
+- Comparable to china-comps analysis
+- Typical EV/EBITDA exit: 6-12x for China industrials
+- IPO exit: increasingly common (A-share IPO for delisted targets)
+
+**Sensitivity tables:**
+- Entry multiple vs exit multiple
+- EBITDA growth vs leverage level
+- IRR vs MOIC matrix
+
+### Step 6: Scenario Analysis
+
+**Bear case:**
+- Revenue growth below plan
+- Margin compression
+- Higher borrowing costs
+- Covenant tightness
+
+**Base case:**
+- Plan assumptions achieved
+- Standard amortization schedule
+- Target exit in year 4-5
+
+**Bull case:**
+- Revenue synergies materialize
+- Margin expansion through 规模效应
+- Lower financing costs
+- IPO exit at premium
+
+## China-Specific Considerations
+
+### A-Share Delisting / 私有化
+- 全面要约收购 (General offer) required for >30% stake
+- Minimum offer price: typically 6 months highest trading price
+- Post-delisting: 3 years before re-listing (创业板/科创板: 2 years)
+- 回购价格 must meet regulatory minimums
+
+### Regulatory Approvals
+- 反垄断审查 (SAMR merger control)
+- 经营者集中申报 for deals above thresholds
+- 外资安全审查 (foreign investment review)
+- 行业准入 (sector-specific approvals)
+
+### Tax Considerations
+- 资本利得税: not separately levied on individuals
+- Corporate: 25% (or 15% for 高新技术企业)
+- Withholding tax on dividends to foreign investors: 10% ( treaty relief possible)
+- 转让所得税 on asset transfers: 25% corporate or 20% individual
+
+### Working Capital Norms
+- Chinese companies often have:
+  - Higher AR days (less efficient collections)
+  - Higher inventory days (especially manufacturing)
+  - Higher AP days (supplier financing)
+- Net WC often runs 5-15% of revenue for industrials
+
+### Debt Market Access
+- Investment-grade: 3-5% borrowing cost
+- High-yield: 8-15% (offshore bonds)
+- Bank loans: LPR + 100-300 bps
+- Shadow banking restrictions affect 信托融资 availability
+
+## Excel Model Structure
+
+### Sheet Architecture
+
+1. **Sources & Uses** — deal structure
+2. **Operating Model** — 5-year projections
+3. **Debt Schedule** — all tranches with amortization
+4. **Returns Summary** — IRR, MOIC, equity bridge
+5. **Sensitivity** — entry/exit multiple sensitivity
+
+### Key Formulas
+
+```excel
+// EBITDA
+=Gross Profit + D&A - S&M - G&A
+
+// Unlevered FCF
+=NOPAT + D&A - CapEx - ΔNWC
+
+// Levered FCF
+=Unlevered FCF - Interest - Mandatory Amortization - Dividends
+
+// Debt at end of year
+=Beginning Debt + New Draws - Mandatory Amort - Optional Prepayment
+
+// Interest expense
+=Average Debt × Interest Rate
+
+// IRR
+=IRR(Equity contributions, dividends, exit proceeds)
+
+// MOIC
+=Exit Equity Value / Total Equity Invested
+```
+
+## Output Checklist
+
+Before delivering:
+
+- [ ] Sources & Uses balance (Total Sources = Total Uses)
+- [ ] Debt schedule amortizes correctly
+- [ ] Interest calculated on average or period-end debt (consistent)
+- [ ] All hardcoded inputs sourced and commented
+- [ ] IRR and MOIC calculations verified
+- [ ] Sensitivity tables fully populated
+- [ ] Scenario analysis included (Bear/Base/Bull)
+- [ ] China-specific taxes/fees included in Uses
+- [ ] CAS conventions documented
+- [ ] File named: `[Ticker]_LBO_Model_[Date].xlsx`
+
+## Reference
+
+This skill extends the base `lbo-model` skill. For Excel formatting standards, formula conventions, and section checkpoint methodology, refer to:
+- `lbo-model/SKILL.md` — base LBO methodology
+- `xlsx-author/SKILL.md` — Excel file creation standards
+- `audit-xls/SKILL.md` — model validation and audit procedures
+> **Data Source Mode Switch**: Set env var `IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE` to control data source preference.
+> - `ifind-only` (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
+> - `ifind-fallback` (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
+> - `akshare-only`: Skip iFind, use AkShare only