@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.3 → 2.7.4

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-earnings-preview/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: china-earnings-preview
+description: Pre-earnings analysis for A-share stocks. Builds scenario frameworks (actual vs consensus, beat/miss cases), identifies key metrics to watch, and prepares positioning notes before Chinese companies report quarterly results. Use instead of the original earnings-preview skill for A-share coverage. Triggers on "A股财报前瞻", "季报前瞻", "业绩前瞻", "earnings preview", "what to watch for [company] earnings", or "pre-earnings setup".
+---
+
+# china-earnings-preview
+
+> 本文件相对上游 `d7585ca` 快照做过合规改写（取数与凭据口径），逐条记在快照根目录的 UPSTREAM.md；方法论、阈值与输出模板未改。
+
+## Purpose
+
+Build **A股季报/年报前瞻分析**, preparing for company earnings releases with scenario frameworks and key metrics to watch.
+
+## Data Sources
+
+This section is a **brief to hand to the host's retrieval path**, not a set of calls made from here. This plugin has exactly one way to obtain data — the main agent delegates it — and it holds no data-service key and calls no data interface from inside a preview.
+
+Ask, by exact ticker + field + as-of date, for:
+
+- Trading context: 最新价 with PE / PB, the 52-week range, and the price run-up into the report
+- History: 利润表 for the last 4-8 quarters (revenue, 净利润, EPS) to establish the baseline
+- Peers: the same multiples for the comparable names this preview reads against
+- Narrative: recent 相关新闻, 公司公告 (业绩预告 notices), 行业研究报告, and 卖方研报 summaries
+
+In a role-split host, delegate with that brief rather than searching from this step; then build the preview from what comes back and leave the rest unknown.
+
+### Consensus estimates — what this host can actually reach
+
+There is no consensus endpoint in this plugin. The closest things it can retrieve are:
+
+| 能拿到的东西 | 它是什么 | 不能当成什么 |
+|---|---|---|
+| 券商研报条目里的预测字段（本年 / 次年 EPS 一类） | 单个卖方口径 | 不是机构一致预期，也不带样本数 |
+| 公司自己的 业绩预告 band | 强制披露的方向性区间 | 不是预测，是发行人口径 |
+| 历史增速 + 先前口径 | 分析基线 | 不是"市场预期" |
+
+**If no expectation comes back:** leave the Estimate and Range cells empty, say `缺失：一致预期（本宿主取不到）`, and keep the scenario framework as a comparison against 历史与披露区间 rather than against a market consensus. Do not manufacture a consensus out of growth rates, prior-call phrasing, or industry benchmarks — those are inputs to *your* base case, and the base case has to be labelled as yours.
+
+### Secondary material
+
+- 公司公告 (earnings preview notices 业绩预告)
+- 行业研究报告 (sector reports)
+- 卖方研报 (broker research summaries)
+
+These are retrieval targets for the host's web and disclosure path, listed here so the brief can name the document type precisely.
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Step 1: Establish Baseline
+
+**Historical performance (last 4-8 quarters):**
+
+| Quarter | Revenue (亿) | YoY | Net Income (亿) | YoY | EPS (元) | Net Margin |
+|---------|-------------|-----|----------------|-----|----------|------------|
+| Q1 2024 | | | | | | |
+| Q2 2024 | | | | | | |
+| Q3 2024 | | | | | | |
+| Q4 2023 | | | | | | |
+
+**Identify trends:**
+- Accelerating or decelerating growth?
+- Margin expansion or compression?
+- Seasonal patterns?
+- One-time items to normalize?
+
+### Step 2: Gather Consensus Estimates
+
+**Consensus table:**
+
+| Metric | Q1 2024 Estimate | Range (Low-High) | # Analysts |
+|--------|-----------------|-------------------|------------|
+| Revenue (亿) | | | |
+| YoY Growth | | | |
+| Net Income (亿) | | | |
+| EPS (元) | | | |
+| Gross Margin | | | |
+| Net Margin | | | |
+
+**Beat probability assessment:**
+- Strong beat (>+10%): Company has history of under-promising
+- Moderate beat (+5% to +10%): Consensus well-established
+- In-line (-5% to +5%): Typical range
+- Miss risk (<-5%): Macro headwinds, order delays
+
+### Step 3: Identify Key Metrics to Watch
+
+**Company-specific KPIs:**
+
+For each company, identify 3-5 metrics that will drive the report:
+
+| Metric | Why It Matters | Watch Threshold | Risk if Missed |
+|--------|---------------|-----------------|----------------|
+| e.g., 白酒批价 | Price indicator for channel health | >950元/瓶 | Demand softness |
+| e.g., 动力电池装机量 | Volume indicator | >XX GWh | Market share loss |
+| e.g., 云业务收入增速 | Growth engine health | >30% | Cloud slowdown |
+
+**Sector-wide KPIs (for sector previews):**
+
+| Sector | Key Metrics |
+|--------|-------------|
+| 白酒 | 批价、库存、回款、动销 |
+| 半导体 | 产能利用率、出货量、ASP、库存天数 |
+| 新能源汽车 | 交付量、单车收入、毛利率、电池成本 |
+| 医药 | 创新药收入、研发费用、集采影响 |
+| 银行 | NIM、不良率、拨备覆盖率 |
+| 券商 | 经纪/投行/资管收入、股基交易量 |
+| 光伏 | 硅料/组件价格、排产、海外出货 |
+| 房地产 | 销售额、拿地、融资成本 |
+
+### Step 4: Build Scenario Framework
+
+**Three-scenario model:**
+
+```
+BEAR CASE (超预期悲观)
+  Revenue: -X% vs consensus
+  Net Income: -Y% vs consensus
+  Key factor: [specific risk]
+  Likely catalysts: 业绩预告大幅下调, 行业负面政策
+
+BASE CASE (符合预期)
+  Revenue: ±Z% vs consensus
+  Net Income: ±W% vs consensus
+  Key factor: [steady state]
+  Likely outcome: 符合预期, 股价波动±5%
+
+BULL CASE (超预期乐观)
+  Revenue: +A% vs consensus
+  Net Income: +B% vs consensus
+  Key factor: [positive surprise driver]
+  Likely catalysts: 新品放量, 成本下降超预期
+```
+
+### Step 5: Position Analysis
+
+**What does the market expect?**
+
+- Recent stock price performance into earnings
+- Implied move from options (if A-share options available)
+- Sentiment from 北向资金 trends
+- Broker recommendations distribution
+
+**Position sizing considerations:**
+- High expectations (high PE) → asymmetric risk to downside
+- Low expectations (depressed stock) → upside potential on beat
+- Earnings as catalyst: upcoming product launch, policy change
+
+### Step 6: Pre-Earnings Positioning Note
+
+**Standard structure:**
+
+```
+[公司名称]（[代码]）[季/年报] 前瞻：[主题/焦点]
+
+一、业绩预期
+  - 关键指标一致预期一览
+  - 预测区间
+
+二、情景分析
+  - 乐观/基准/悲观情景
+
+三、关注要点
+  - 最重要的 3-5 个指标
+  - 预期 vs 实际的关键差异点
+
+四、估值与预期
+  - 当前估值水平
+  - 市场情绪指标
+  - 北向资金动向
+
+五、情景判断与策略
+  - 不同情景下的股价反应
+  - 可能的交易策略
+
+六、风险提示
+  - 关键下行风险
+```
+
+### Step 7: Post-Earnings Follow-up
+
+After actual results are released:
+- Compare actual vs preview scenarios
+- Update the earnings-analysis model
+- Revise forward estimates
+- Note any material guidance changes
+
+## China-Specific Pre-Earnings Considerations
+
+### Earnings Calendar (A-share)
+
+| Report Type | Deadline | Typical Release Time |
+|-------------|----------|----------------------|
+| Q1 / Q3季报 | 1 month after quarter-end | Before market open or after close |
+| Semi-annual report (中报) | 2 months after H1 | Before market open |
+| Annual report (年报) | 4 months after year-end | Typically Jan-Apr |
+
+**Release pattern:**
+- Most companies release before market open (8:00-9:00 AM)
+- Some release after market close (after 15:00)
+- 创业板/科创板 may have more flexible schedules
+
+### 业绩预告 (Earnings Preview Notice)
+
+- Mandatory if actual vs prior period variance >50%
+- Published typically 2-4 weeks before formal report
+- Format: 预增 (increase), 预减 (decrease), 扭亏 (turn to profit), 首亏 (first loss), 续亏 (continued loss)
+- Provides directional guidance before formal report
+
+### Consensus Reliability
+
+**Caveats for Chinese consensus:**
+- Fewer analysts covering A-shares vs US large caps
+- Estimates may be stale (update frequency lower)
+- Institutional vs retail analyst coverage varies significantly
+- Broker research sometimes biased ( conflicted interests )
+- Cross-reference multiple sources when possible
+
+### Policy Risk
+
+- Regulatory changes can materially impact earnings overnight
+- 行业政策 (industry policy) shifts common in:
+  - 医药 (pharmaceuticals — 集采)
+  - 教育 (education — 双减)
+  - 互联网 (internet — antitrust)
+  - 新能源 (renewables — subsidy changes)
+- Factor policy risk into scenario analysis
+
+## Quality Checks
+
+Before delivering preview:
+
+- [ ] Historical data complete and accurate, each figure carrying a retrieval reference from the host
+- [ ] Consensus estimates retrieved, or written up as a field this host could not reach
+- [ ] Scenario framework covers bull/base/bear
+- [ ] Key watch items identified with rationale
+- [ ] China-specific risks flagged (政策, 集采, etc.)
+- [ ] Valuation context included
+- [ ] Pre-earnings positioning actionable
+> 取数档位（接哪家数据服务、用哪个密钥）由宿主的凭据域决定：这份前瞻不配置它，也不向使用者索取凭据。

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-gl-recon/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: china-gl-recon
+description: General ledger reconciliation for A-share companies. Adapts the original gl-recon skill for Chinese accounting standards, chart of accounts, and common reconciliation items. Triggers on "A股总账核对", "总账调节", "GL reconciliation China", "科目余额表", or "reconcile [company] accounts".
+---
+
+# china-gl-recon
+
+## Purpose
+
+Perform **A股总账核对** — comprehensive general ledger reconciliation for Chinese companies.
+
+## Data Sources
+
+### Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
+
+```python
+get_financials(ticker, "balance")    → Balance sheet accounts
+get_financials(ticker, "income")     → P&L accounts
+```
+
+### Secondary Sources
+- 巨潮 — financial statements
+- 审计报告 — reconciliation notes
+- 科目余额表 — trial balance
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Step 1: Understand the Chart of Accounts
+
+**Common Chinese COA structure:**
+
+| Category | Account Code Range | Key Accounts |
+|----------|-------------------|--------------|
+| 资产 (Assets) | 1001-1999 | Cash, AR, inventory, PPE |
+| 负债 (Liabilities) | 2001-2999 | AP, debt, provisions |
+| 所有者权益 (Equity) | 3001-3999 | Capital, reserves, retained earnings |
+| 成本 (Cost) | 4001-4999 | COGS, production costs |
+| 损益 (P&L) | 5001-5999 | Revenue, expenses, gains/losses |
+
+**Key accounts to reconcile:**
+
+| Account | CAS Code | Reconciliation Item |
+|---------|----------|-------------------|
+| 银行存款 | 1002 | Bank statement |
+| 应收账款 | 1122 | AR aging |
+| 其他应收款 | 1187 | Related party, advances |
+| 存货 | 1403 | Inventory count |
+| 固定资产 | 1601 | Fixed asset register |
+| 应付账款 | 2202 | Supplier statements |
+| 应付职工薪酬 | 2211 | Payroll records |
+| 应交税费 | 2221 | Tax returns |
+| 未分配利润 | 3405 | P&L close check |
+
+### Step 2: Balance Sheet Reconciliation
+
+**BS recon checklist:**
+
+| Account | GL Balance | Supporting Docs | Reconciled Amount | Difference |
+|---------|-----------|-----------------|-------------------|------------|
+| 货币资金 | | Bank statements | | |
+| 应收账款 | | Aging report | | |
+| 预付款项 | | Supplier statements | | |
+| 存货 | | Count sheets | | |
+| 其他应收款 | | Detail listing | | |
+| 长期股权投资 | | Investment records | | |
+| 固定资产 | | Asset register | | |
+| 应付账款 | | Supplier confirmations | | |
+| 应付职工薪酬 | | Payroll records | | |
+| 应交税费 | | Tax returns | | |
+| 短期借款 | | Loan agreements | | |
+| 长期借款 | | Loan agreements | | |
+
+### Step 3: Bank Reconciliation
+
+**Bank recon:**
+
+| Item | GL | Bank Stmt | Difference |
+|------|-----|-----------|------------|
+| Balance per GL | ¥XX | | |
+| Add: Deposits in transit | | ¥XX | |
+| Less: Outstanding checks | | ¥XX | |
+| Add/Less: Errors | | ¥XX | |
+| Adjusted GL balance | | | ¥XX |
+| Balance per bank | | ¥XX | |
+| Reconciled | ✓ / ✗ | | |
+
+**Common reconciling items (China):**
+- 在途存款 (Deposits in transit)
+- 未兑现支票 (Outstanding checks)
+- 银行手续费 (Bank charges)
+- 利息收入 (Interest income)
+- 未达账项 (Unrecorded items)
+
+### Step 4: AR Reconciliation
+
+**AR aging recon:**
+
+| Aging | GL Balance | Aging Report | Confirmed | Difference |
+|-------|-----------|--------------|-----------|------------|
+| 0-30 days | | | | |
+| 31-60 days | | | | |
+| 61-90 days | | | | |
+| 91-180 days | | | | |
+| >180 days | | | | |
+| Total | | | | |
+
+**AR recon items:**
+- 账龄分析 (Aging analysis)
+- 坏账准备 (Allowance for doubtful accounts)
+- 关联方应收 (Related party AR)
+- 票据应收 (Notes receivable)
+- 预收账款冲减 (Advances from customers)
+
+### Step 5: AP Reconciliation
+
+**AP recon:**
+
+| Vendor | GL Balance | Vendor Statement | Confirmed | Difference |
+|--------|-----------|-----------------|-----------|------------|
+| | | | | |
+| | | | | |
+| Total | | | | |
+
+### Step 6: Inventory Reconciliation
+
+**Inventory recon:**
+
+| Item | GL | Count | Difference | Reason |
+|------|-----|-------|------------|--------|
+| 原材料 | | | | |
+| 在产品 | | | | |
+| 产成品 | | | | |
+| Total | | | | |
+
+**Inventory recon items:**
+- 实物盘点 (Physical count)
+- 在途存货 (Goods in transit)
+- 已发出商品 (Consignment goods)
+- 存货跌价准备 (Obsolescence reserve)
+
+### Step 7: Fixed Asset Reconciliation
+
+**FA recon:**
+
+| Asset | GL | Register | Tag Count | Difference |
+|-------|-----|----------|-----------|------------|
+| | | | | |
+| Total | | | | |
+
+**FA recon items:**
+- 资产标签 (Asset tagging)
+- 折旧计算 (Depreciation calculation)
+- 减值测试 (Impairment testing)
+- 处置记录 (Disposal records)
+- 资本化 vs 费用化 (Capitalization policy)
+
+### Step 8: Payroll Reconciliation
+
+**Payroll recon:**
+
+| Item | GL | Payroll Records | Tax Filing | Difference |
+|------|-----|----------------|------------|------------|
+| 工资 | | | | |
+| 社保 | | | | |
+| 公积金 | | | | |
+| 个税 | | | | |
+| Total | | | | |
+
+### Step 9: Tax Reconciliation
+
+**Tax recon:**
+
+| Tax Type | GL | Tax Return | Difference |
+|-----------|-----|------------|------------|
+| 增值税 | | | |
+| 企业所得税 | | | |
+| 附加税 | | | |
+| 个税 | | | |
+| 社保/公积金 | | | |
+
+### Step 10: P&L Close Check
+
+**P&L to retained earnings:**
+
+```
+期初未分配利润
++ 本年净利润 (from P&L close)
+- 提取盈余公积
+- 提取任意公积
+- 应付股利
+= 期末未分配利润
+```
+
+**Verify:**
+- P&L close → retained earnings
+- 利润分配 entries
+- Tax entries
+- Dividend entries
+
+## China-Specific Recon Considerations
+
+### Common Issues
+
+| Issue | Detection | Resolution |
+|-------|-----------|------------|
+| 在途资金 | Bank recon | Timing difference |
+| 未达账项 | Bank recon | Follow up |
+| 关联方挂账 | AR/AP aging | Related party recon |
+| 发票差异 | Tax recon | Timing/cut-off |
+| 折旧差异 | FA recon | Policy check |
+
+### CAS-Specific Items
+
+| Item | Treatment |
+|------|-----------|
+| 增值税 | Pass-through, check VAT output/input |
+| 政府补助 | Verify classification |
+| 股份支付 | Expense recognition check |
+| 汇兑损益 | FX difference verification |
+
+## Quality Checks
+
+Before completing:
+- [ ] All significant accounts reconciled
+- [ ] Differences investigated and resolved
+- [ ] Documentation complete
+- [ ] Sign-offs obtained
+- [ ] Adjustments proposed (if any)
+> **Data Source Mode Switch**: Set env var `IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE` to control data source preference.
+> - `ifind-only` (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
+> - `ifind-fallback` (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
+> - `akshare-only, wind-only (Wind only), wind-fallback (Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare)`: Skip iFind, use AkShare only