@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.3 → 2.7.4

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-break-trace/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: china-break-trace
+description: Forensic financial analysis for A-share companies. Identifies discrepancies, potential irregularities, and earnings quality issues in Chinese financial statements. Adapted from the original break-trace skill for CAS accounting and Chinese market red flags. Triggers on "A股财务核查", "财务异常", "forensic analysis China", "财务舞弊", "earnings quality China", or "investigate [company] financials".
+---
+
+# china-break-trace
+
+> 本文件相对上游 `d7585ca` 快照做过合规改写（取数与凭据口径），逐条记在快照根目录的 UPSTREAM.md；方法论、阈值与输出模板未改。
+
+## Purpose
+
+Conduct **A股财务核查** — forensic analysis to identify potential issues in Chinese financial statements.
+
+## Data Sources
+
+Forensic work is only as good as the records behind it, and this step retrieves nothing itself: the plugin has one entry for data — the main agent delegating to the role that owns structured data or disclosure and web material — and it holds no data-service key here.
+
+Send out briefs naming the ticker, the field, and the period:
+
+- 三表全周期：利润表 (收入与利润趋势)、资产负债表 (科目余额与结构)、现金流量表 (经营现金流质量) — long enough windows that a break shows up as a change, not as noise
+- 附注与原始披露：定期报告正文与附注、审计报告（意见类型、强调事项段）、异常交易相关公告
+- 监管信号：交易所问询函、证监会处理决定与处罚公告
+
+The disclosure venues those briefs resolve to (巨潮、交易所、监管机构网站) are the host retrieval path's business; name the document, not the website. Then work the comparison from what came back: a statement that did not come back is a named gap, and no red flag is raised — or dismissed — on a remembered balance.
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Step 1: Revenue Quality Analysis
+
+**Revenue red flags:**
+
+| Indicator | Check | Red Flag |
+|-----------|-------|----------|
+| 应收账款/收入 | AR / Revenue | >40% or rising fast |
+| 应收账款增速 vs 收入增速 | Growth comparison | AR growing >> Revenue |
+| 经营活动现金流/净利润 | OCF / Net Income | <0.5 or negative |
+| 收入确认政策 | Notes review | Aggressive recognition |
+| 客户集中度 | Top customers | >30% from one customer |
+| 关联交易 | Related party | High % of revenue |
+
+**Revenue quality score:**
+
+| Metric | Score (1-5) | Notes |
+|--------|-------------|-------|
+| OCF/NI ratio | | 5 = OCF >> NI |
+| AR days | | 5 = low/stable |
+| Revenue concentration | | 5 = diversified |
+| Growth quality | | 5 = organic, recurring |
+| Cash conversion | | 5 = excellent |
+
+### Step 2: Profit Quality Analysis
+
+**Profit red flags:**
+
+| Indicator | Check | Red Flag |
+|-----------|-------|----------|
+| 营业利润 vs 净利润 | Operating profit vs net | Large gap |
+| 非经常性损益 | Non-recurring items | >20% of profit |
+| 政府补助 | Government subsidies | High % of profit |
+| 资产减值 | Impairments | Irregular timing |
+| 投资收益 | Investment income | Unsustainable |
+| 毛利率趋势 | Gross margin | Unexplained changes |
+
+**Profit decomposition:**
+
+```
+净利润 = 营业利润 + 营业外收支 - 所得税
+
+分析重点:
+1. 营业利润占比 (营业利润/净利润): 应>80%
+2. 非经常性损益: 识别一次性项目
+3. 政府补助依赖度: 补助/净利润
+4. 减值损失波动: 是否平滑利润?
+```
+
+### Step 3: Cash Flow Quality
+
+**Cash flow analysis:**
+
+| Metric | Formula | Healthy | Concern |
+|--------|---------|---------|---------|
+| OCF/NI | OCF / Net Income | >1 | <0.5 |
+| FCF | OCF - CapEx | Positive | Negative |
+| OCF/Revenue | OCF / Revenue | >5% | <0% |
+| 投资活动现金流 | Investing CF | Outflows (growth) | Large inflows (asset sales?) |
+
+**Cash flow quality score:**
+
+| Indicator | Healthy | Warning |
+|-----------|---------|---------|
+| OCF consistently positive | ✓ | Negative OCF |
+| OCF tracks NI | ✓ | Large divergence |
+| CapEx sustainable | ✓ | CapEx >> OCF |
+| No frequent asset sales | ✓ | Asset disposal income |
+
+### Step 4: Balance Sheet Anomalies
+
+**Balance sheet checks:**
+
+| Area | Red Flags |
+|------|-----------|
+| 货币资金 | Large cash + high debt (possible restriction) |
+| 应收账款 | Rapid growth, aging issues |
+| 其他应收款 | Unusually large (possible tunneling) |
+| 存货 | Rapid growth, no explanation |
+| 在建工程 | Never completed (capitalized costs?) |
+| 商誉 | High % of equity (>30%) |
+| 长期待摊费用 | Unusually large |
+| 负债 | Off-balance sheet items |
+
+**Specific balance sheet ratios:**
+
+| Ratio | Formula | Concern |
+|-------|---------|---------|
+| 有息负债/净资产 | Interest-bearing debt / Equity | >100% |
+| 货币资金/有息负债 | Cash / Interest-bearing debt | <0.3 |
+| 商誉/净资产 | Goodwill / Equity | >30% |
+| 其他应收款/资产 | Other receivables / Total assets | >5% |
+| 存货周转天数 | Inventory days | Sudden increase |
+
+### Step 5: Related Party Analysis
+
+**Related party red flags:**
+
+| Indicator | Check |
+|-----------|-------|
+| 关联交易金额 | % of revenue/costs |
+| 关联交易定价 | Arm's length? |
+| 关联应收应付 | Balances with related parties |
+| 资金占用 | Funds tied up with related parties |
+| 担保 | Guarantees for related parties |
+
+**Common tunneling mechanisms:**
+- 预付账款 to related parties
+- 其他应收款 from related parties
+- 资金拆借 without interest
+- Asset sales to related parties at non-arm's length prices
+- 担保 for related party debt
+
+### Step 6: Earnings Management Detection
+
+**Earnings management indicators:**
+
+| Method | Detection |
+|--------|-----------|
+| 费用资本化 | CapEx unusual, D&A low |
+| 收入提前确认 | AR rising, 预收账款 falling |
+| 费用延后确认 | AP falling, accrued expenses low |
+| 减值选择性计提 | Timing of impairments |
+| 会计政策变更 | Policy change benefits |
+| 估计变更 | Reserve changes |
+
+**Beneish M-Score (adapted for China):**
+
+| Variable | Calculation |
+|----------|------------|
+| DSRI | Days sales in receivables change |
+| GMI | Gross margin deterioration |
+| AQI | Asset quality index |
+| SGI | Sales growth index |
+| DEPI | Depreciation index |
+| SGAI | SG&A index |
+| LVGI | Leverage index |
+| TATA | Total accruals / Total assets |
+
+### Step 7: Auditor & Filing Analysis
+
+**Audit report review:**
+
+| Item | Review |
+|------|--------|
+| 审计意见 | Standard / Modified / Adverse |
+| 强调事项段 | Any emphasis of matter? |
+| 关键审计事项 | Key audit matters |
+| 审计师变更 | Recent change? |
+| 审计费用 | Unusual changes? |
+
+**Filing review:**
+- 年报 vs 中报 consistency
+- Notes completeness
+- Segment disclosures
+| Related party disclosures
+| Commitments and contingencies
+
+### Step 8: Regulatory Signals
+
+**Regulatory red flags:**
+
+| Source | Signals |
+|--------|---------|
+| 交易所问询函 | Inquiry letters |
+| 证监会关注函 | Regulatory attention |
+| 行政处罚 | Fines, penalties |
+| 交易所纪律处分 | Disciplinary actions |
+| 投资者诉讼 | Shareholder lawsuits |
+
+## Common A-share Fraud Patterns
+
+| Pattern | Description | Detection |
+|---------|-------------|-----------|
+| 虚增收入 | Fictitious revenue | AR anomaly, tax mismatch |
+| 虚减成本 | Understate costs | Margin anomaly |
+| 关联交易非关联化 | Related party disguised | Customer/supplier analysis |
+| 资金循环 | Round-tripping | Cash flow analysis |
+| 资产置换 | Asset swapping | Unusual asset changes |
+| 会计估计操纵 | Estimate manipulation | Reserve changes |
+
+## Quality Checks
+
+Before delivering report:
+- [ ] All red flags investigated
+- [ ] Evidence documented
+- [ ] Severity assessed
+- [ ] Conclusions supported
+- [ ] Regulatory signals checked
+- [ ] Report structured clearly
+> 取数档位（接哪家数据服务、用哪个密钥）由宿主的凭据域决定：这份核查报告不配置它，也不向使用者索取凭据。

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,258 @@
+---
+name: china-catalyst-calendar
+description: Track upcoming catalysts for A-share coverage universe — earnings dates, regulatory announcements, sector conferences, product launches, and policy events relevant to Chinese equities. Adapted from the original catalyst-calendar skill for A-share market conventions. Triggers on "A股催化剂日历", "事件日历", "财报日历", "earnings calendar A-share", "upcoming catalysts China", or "what's coming up for [company]".
+---
+
+# china-catalyst-calendar
+
+> 本文件相对上游 `d7585ca` 快照做过合规改写（取数与凭据口径），逐条记在快照根目录的 UPSTREAM.md；方法论、阈值与输出模板未改。
+
+## Purpose
+
+Build and maintain a **A股催化剂日历** tracking upcoming events that could materially impact stock prices within a coverage universe.
+
+## Catalyst Types (A-share Specific)
+
+### 1. Earnings & Financial Reports
+
+| Event | Typical Timing | Notes |
+|-------|---------------|-------|
+| 业绩预告 (earnings preview) | 1-4 weeks before | Mandatory if variance >50% from prior |
+| 季报 (quarterly report) | 1 month after quarter-end | 10-day grace period possible |
+| 中报 (semi-annual report) | 2 months after H1 | 15-day grace period |
+| 年报 (annual report) | 4 months after year-end | Most important event of the year |
+| 业绩说明会 (earnings call) | Same day or next trading day | 上证e互动 / 深交所互动易 |
+
+### 2. Regulatory & Policy Events
+
+| Event | Impact | Typical Timing |
+|-------|--------|---------------|
+| 央行MLF/LPR操作 | High (liquidity, rates) | 15th of each month (MLF) |
+| 央行降准/降息 | Very high | Ad-hoc, 国新办发布会 |
+| 国务院政策发布 | Sector-specific | Ad-hoc |
+| 部委监管政策 (NMPA, MIIT, etc.) | Industry-specific | Ad-hoc |
+| 集采结果 (volume-based procurement) | Pharma/medtech | Quarterly cycles |
+| 行业准入政策变化 | Sector-specific | Ad-hoc |
+| 反垄断调查 | Specific companies | Ad-hoc |
+
+### 3. Corporate Events
+
+| Event | Impact | Notes |
+|-------|--------|-------|
+| 股东大会 (AGM) | Low-medium | Voting on key items |
+| 分红/送股/转增 (dividend/rights) | Medium | Ex-dividend date matters |
+| 限售股解禁 (lock-up expiry) | Medium-high | Watch large blocks |
+| 增减持公告 (shareholder transactions) | Low-medium | 5% threshold triggers disclosure |
+| 回购 (share buyback) | Low-medium | Implementation tracking |
+| 并购重组 (M&A announcements) | High | 停牌 until announcement |
+| 增发/配股 (seasoned equity) | High | Dilution impact |
+| 可转债发行/转股 | Medium | Conversion tracking |
+
+### 4. Sector / Industry Events
+
+| Event | Example Sectors | Notes |
+|-------|----------------|-------|
+| 行业展会/论坛 | 新能源, 半导体, 医药 | Networking, product announcements |
+| 政策研讨会 | 环保, 教育, 互联网 | Policy direction signals |
+| 行业协会数据发布 | 汽车, 光伏, 风电 | Monthly/quarterly stats |
+| 国际展会 (CES, IFA, etc.) | 消费电子 | New product launches |
+
+### 5. Macro Data Releases
+
+| Indicator | Frequency | Impact |
+|-----------|-----------|--------|
+| PMI (制造业/非制造业) | Monthly (1st) | Market-wide |
+| CPI / PPI | Monthly (9-10th) | Rates, commodities |
+| 社会融资规模 / M2 | Monthly (10-15th) | Liquidity |
+| 外汇储备 | Monthly | FX sentiment |
+| 工业增加值 | Monthly | Growth indicator |
+| 零售数据 | Monthly | Consumption |
+| 就业数据 | Quarterly | Labor market |
+
+## Data Sources
+
+A calendar is a list of dates and documents, and this plugin obtains none of them from inside this step: retrieval has exactly one entry — the main agent delegating it to the role that owns market data or web and disclosure material — and a calendar holds no data-service key and issues no query of its own.
+
+Hand over one brief per family, each naming the ticker or the indicator, the field wanted, and the as-of date:
+
+- 公司事件：分红、回购、股东大会、解禁、披露安排, plus the 公告 and 相关新闻 behind each entry
+- 公司底色：profile, 股本结构, and the historical earnings pattern that tells you which quarter is material
+- 交易状态：current quote and trading context for each name on the calendar
+- 全市场：指数行情 as macro backdrop, and market-wide news flow
+- 宏观发布：the indicator calendar above (CPI / PMI / 工业增加值 / 零售 / 就业) with its release dates
+
+The disclosure venues these briefs eventually resolve to — 巨潮公告、上交所公告、深交所公告 — are the host retrieval role's business, not a browsing task for this step: name the document type you need and let the retrieval path decide where it lives. In a role-split host, delegate rather than searching from here, then keep calendar entries that came back and mark the rest as unconfirmed dates.
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Step 1: Define Coverage Universe
+
+Identify the stocks and sectors to track. Typical A-share coverage universe:
+- 50-200 names
+- Organized by sector/industry
+- Priority tiers (P1 = must-track, P2 = watchlist)
+
+### Step 2: Build Calendar Entries
+
+**For each catalyst, record:**
+
+```json
+{
+  "date": "2024-04-25",
+  "type": "earnings",
+  "subtype": "季报",
+  "ticker": "{{TICKER}}",
+  "company": "{{COMPANY_NAME}}",
+  "importance": "high",
+  "notes": "Q1 2024 results; watch 批价 and inventory",
+  "status": "confirmed"
+}
+```
+
+**Catalyst types in JSON:**
+- `earnings` — quarterly/semi/annual reports
+- `earnings_call` — 业绩说明会
+- `regulatory` — 监管政策发布
+- `policy` — 宏观政策 (央行, 国务院)
+- `corporate` — 公司事件 (分红, 解禁, M&A)
+- `macro_data` — 经济数据发布
+- `sector_event` — 行业展会/论坛
+- `lockup_expiry` — 限售股解禁
+
+### Step 3: Prioritize Catalysts
+
+**Importance levels:**
+- **Critical**: Likely to move stock >10% (earnings, M&A, major policy)
+- **High**: Likely to move stock 5-10% (regulatory decisions, industry data)
+- **Medium**: Watch item, context-setting (dividend, conference participation)
+- **Low**: Background noise (routine filings, minor announcements)
+
+### Step 4: Pre-Catalyst Preparation
+
+**1 week before critical catalysts:**
+- Pull latest data and consensus
+- Prepare scenario analysis
+- Draft preliminary positioning note
+- Alert stakeholders if high-impact
+
+**1 day before critical catalysts:**
+- Final data check
+- Confirm release timing (morning vs afternoon)
+- Prepare pre-market positioning note
+- Set monitoring alerts
+
+### Step 5: Post-Catalyst Update
+
+After catalyst passes:
+- Record actual outcome
+- Compare vs scenario framework
+- Update price target / thesis if material
+- Move to "completed" section
+- Flag next catalyst in queue
+
+## Calendar Format
+
+### Weekly View
+
+```
+【本周催化剂日历】[YYYY-MM-DD 至 YYYY-MM-DD]
+
+周一 [Date]
+  - [Time] [Ticker] [Company] — [Event type] — [Importance]
+  - [Time] [Macro event] — [Impact assessment]
+
+周二 [Date]
+  ...
+
+本周重点：
+- [Top 2-3 catalysts to watch]
+- [Market-wide risk events]
+```
+
+### Monthly View
+
+```
+【X月重要事件日历】
+
+财报窗口:
+- [Week 1]: [Sector] Q[X] results: [List of companies]
+- [Week 2]: [Sector] Q[X] results: [List of companies]
+
+政策窗口:
+- [Date]: [Policy event] — [Expected impact]
+
+解禁窗口:
+- [Date]: [Ticker] — [Amount] shares unlocking — [Risk assessment]
+
+宏观数据:
+- [Date]: [Indicator] — [Consensus] — [Previous]
+```
+
+### Upcoming Catalysts Table
+
+| Date | Company | Event | Importance | Watch Item |
+|------|---------|-------|------------|------------|
+| {{DATE}} | {{COMPANY_NAME}} ({{TICKER}}) | {{EVENT_TYPE}} | {{IMPORTANCE}} | {{WATCH_ITEMS}} |
+| Example | 贵州茅台 (600519) | Q1 年报 | Critical | 批价, 动销 |
+| 04-30 | 工信部 | 新能源车月度数据 | Medium | 销量, 渗透率 |
+
+## China-Specific Considerations
+
+### Earnings Calendar Patterns
+
+| Season | Months | Key Notes |
+|--------|--------|-----------|
+| Q1 earnings | Late April | 年报 + Q1季报 叠加, 信息密集 |
+| H1 earnings | Late August | 中报窗口, 分红预案公布 |
+| Q3 earnings | Late October | 三季报, 全年预测调整 |
+| Annual earnings | Jan-April | 年报密集发布, 分红方案 |
+
+### Lock-up Expiry (限售股解禁)
+
+- 首发限售股 (IPO lock-up): typically 12 months
+- 定增限售股 (private placement): typically 6-18 months
+- 股权激励限售股: varies by plan
+- High lock-up expiry → potential selling pressure
+
+**Risk assessment:**
+- Large percentage of float unlocking (>5%) → high risk
+- Concentrated holders (single entity) → higher impact
+- Company in downtrend → higher probability of sale
+
+### Regulatory Calendar
+
+**Recurring policy events:**
+- 中央经济工作会议 (Central Economic Work Conference): Dec
+- 两会 (Two Sessions / NPC & CPPCC): Mar
+- 政治局会议 (Politburo meeting): Monthly (economics discussed ~quarterly)
+- 国新办发布会 (State Council Info Office presser): Ad-hoc
+- 央行货币政策执行报告: Quarterly
+
+### Dividend Calendar
+
+- 股权登记日 (record date): critical for dividend capture
+- 除权除息日 (ex-dividend date): price adjusts
+- 分红实施公告: typically 2-4 weeks after AGM approval
+- 高送转 (high bonus issue): historically market-positive event
+
+## Integration with Other Skills
+
+| Related Skill | Integration Point |
+|---------------|-------------------|
+| china-earnings-analysis | Post-earnings catalyst review |
+| china-earnings-preview | Pre-earnings scenario setup |
+| china-thesis-tracker | Catalyst milestone tracking |
+| china-morning-note | Daily catalyst briefing |
+| china-market-researcher | Sector catalyst themes |
+
+A skill named above is an option for the user, not a step this role can take: only the skills the user switched on exist in this session, and the ones this plugin deliberately does not offer — placing orders, setting position size — are not reachable at all. Say what you would check next and let the user decide.
+
+## Quality Checks
+
+Before delivering:
+- [ ] Calendar covers 4-12 weeks ahead
+- [ ] All critical catalysts flagged
+- [ ] Dates verified against official sources
+- [ ] Importance levels assigned consistently
+- [ ] Watch items specific and actionable
+- [ ] Pre-catalyst preparation tasks defined