@sylix/coworker 2.0.11 → 2.0.14

package/dist/skills/defaults/business/startup-financial-modeling/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: startup-financial-modeling
+description: This skill should be used when the user asks to "create financial projections", "build a financial model", "forecast revenue", "calculate burn rate", "estimate runway", "model cash flow", or requests 3-5 year financial planning for a startup.
+version: 1.0.0
+---
+
+# Startup Financial Modeling
+
+Build comprehensive 3-5 year financial models with revenue projections, cost structures, cash flow analysis, and scenario planning for early-stage startups.
+
+## Overview
+
+Financial modeling provides the quantitative foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and operational planning. Create realistic projections using cohort-based revenue modeling, detailed cost structures, and scenario analysis to support decision-making and investor presentations.
+
+## Core Components
+
+### Revenue Model
+
+**Cohort-Based Projections:**
+Build revenue from customer acquisition and retention by cohort.
+
+**Formula:**
+
+```
+MRR = Σ (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU)
+ARR = MRR × 12
+```
+
+**Key Inputs:**
+
+- Monthly new customer acquisitions
+- Customer retention rates by month
+- Average revenue per user (ARPU)
+- Pricing and packaging assumptions
+- Expansion revenue (upsells, cross-sells)
+
+### Cost Structure
+
+**Operating Expenses Categories:**
+
+1. **Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**
+   - Hosting and infrastructure
+   - Payment processing fees
+   - Customer support (variable portion)
+   - Third-party services per customer
+
+2. **Sales & Marketing (S&M)**
+   - Customer acquisition cost (CAC)
+   - Marketing programs and advertising
+   - Sales team compensation
+   - Marketing tools and software
+
+3. **Research & Development (R&D)**
+   - Engineering team compensation
+   - Product management
+   - Design and UX
+   - Development tools and infrastructure
+
+4. **General & Administrative (G&A)**
+   - Executive team
+   - Finance, legal, HR
+   - Office and facilities
+   - Insurance and compliance
+
+### Cash Flow Analysis
+
+**Components:**
+
+- Beginning cash balance
+- Cash inflows (revenue, fundraising)
+- Cash outflows (operating expenses, CapEx)
+- Ending cash balance
+- Monthly burn rate
+- Runway (months of cash remaining)
+
+**Formula:**
+
+```
+Runway = Current Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
+Monthly Burn = Monthly Revenue - Monthly Expenses
+```
+
+### Headcount Planning
+
+**Role-Based Hiring Plan:**
+Track headcount by department and role.
+
+**Key Metrics:**
+
+- Fully-loaded cost per employee
+- Revenue per employee
+- Headcount by department (% of total)
+
+**Typical Ratios (Early-Stage SaaS):**
+
+- Engineering: 40-50%
+- Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
+- G&A: 10-15%
+- Customer Success: 5-10%
+
+## Financial Model Structure
+
+### Three-Scenario Framework
+
+**Conservative Scenario (P10):**
+
+- Slower customer acquisition
+- Lower pricing or conversion
+- Higher churn rates
+- Extended sales cycles
+- Used for cash management
+
+**Base Scenario (P50):**
+
+- Most likely outcomes
+- Realistic assumptions
+- Primary planning scenario
+- Used for board reporting
+
+**Optimistic Scenario (P90):**
+
+- Faster growth
+- Better unit economics
+- Lower churn
+- Used for upside planning
+
+### Time Horizon
+
+**Detailed Projections: 3 Years**
+
+- Monthly detail for Year 1
+- Monthly detail for Year 2
+- Quarterly detail for Year 3
+
+**High-Level Projections: Years 4-5**
+
+- Annual projections
+- Key metrics only
+- Support long-term planning
+
+## Step-by-Step Process
+
+### Step 1: Define Business Model
+
+Clarify revenue model and pricing.
+
+**SaaS Model:**
+
+- Subscription pricing tiers
+- Annual vs. monthly contracts
+- Free trial or freemium approach
+- Expansion revenue strategy
+
+**Marketplace Model:**
+
+- GMV projections
+- Take rate (% of transactions)
+- Buyer and seller economics
+- Transaction frequency
+
+**Transactional Model:**
+
+- Transaction volume
+- Revenue per transaction
+- Frequency and seasonality
+
+### Step 2: Build Revenue Projections
+
+Use cohort-based methodology for accuracy.
+
+**Monthly Customer Acquisition:**
+Define new customers acquired each month.
+
+**Retention Curve:**
+Model customer retention over time.
+
+**Typical SaaS Retention:**
+
+- Month 1: 100%
+- Month 3: 90%
+- Month 6: 85%
+- Month 12: 75%
+- Month 24: 70%
+
+**Revenue Calculation:**
+For each cohort, calculate retained customers × ARPU for each month.
+
+### Step 3: Model Cost Structure
+
+Break down costs by category and behavior.
+
+**Fixed vs. Variable:**
+
+- Fixed: Salaries, software, rent
+- Variable: Hosting, payment processing, support
+
+**Scaling Assumptions:**
+
+- COGS as % of revenue
+- S&M as % of revenue (CAC payback)
+- R&D growth rate
+- G&A as % of total expenses
+
+### Step 4: Create Hiring Plan
+
+Model headcount growth by role and department.
+
+**Inputs:**
+
+- Starting headcount
+- Hiring velocity by role
+- Fully-loaded compensation by role
+- Benefits and taxes (typically 1.3-1.4x salary)
+
+**Example:**
+
+```
+Engineer: $150K salary × 1.35 = $202K fully-loaded
+Sales Rep: $100K OTE × 1.30 = $130K fully-loaded
+```
+
+### Step 5: Project Cash Flow
+
+Calculate monthly cash position and runway.
+
+**Monthly Cash Flow:**
+
+```
+Beginning Cash
++ Revenue Collected (consider payment terms)
+- Operating Expenses Paid
+- CapEx
+= Ending Cash
+```
+
+**Runway Calculation:**
+
+```
+If Ending Cash < 0:
+  Funding Need = Negative Cash Balance
+  Runway = 0
+Else:
+  Runway = Ending Cash / Average Monthly Burn
+```
+
+### Step 6: Calculate Key Metrics
+
+Track metrics that matter for stage.
+
+**Revenue Metrics:**
+
+- MRR / ARR
+- Growth rate (MoM, YoY)
+- Revenue by segment or cohort
+
+**Unit Economics:**
+
+- CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost)
+- LTV (Lifetime Value)
+- CAC Payback Period
+- LTV / CAC Ratio
+
+**Efficiency Metrics:**
+
+- Burn multiple (Net Burn / Net New ARR)
+- Magic number (Net New ARR / S&M Spend)
+- Rule of 40 (Growth % + Profit Margin %)
+
+**Cash Metrics:**
+
+- Monthly burn rate
+- Runway (months)
+- Cash efficiency
+
+### Step 7: Scenario Analysis
+
+Create three scenarios with different assumptions.
+
+**Variable Assumptions:**
+
+- Customer acquisition rate (±30%)
+- Churn rate (±20%)
+- Average contract value (±15%)
+- CAC (±25%)
+
+**Fixed Assumptions:**
+
+- Pricing structure
+- Core operating expenses
+- Hiring plan (adjust timing, not roles)
+
+## Business Model Templates
+
+### SaaS Financial Model
+
+**Revenue Drivers:**
+
+- New MRR (customers × ARPU)
+- Expansion MRR (upsells)
+- Contraction MRR (downgrades)
+- Churned MRR (lost customers)
+
+**Key Ratios:**
+
+- Gross margin: 75-85%
+- S&M as % revenue: 40-60% (early stage)
+- CAC payback: < 12 months
+- Net retention: 100-120%
+
+**Example Projection:**
+
+```
+Year 1: $500K ARR, 50 customers, $100K MRR by Dec
+Year 2: $2.5M ARR, 200 customers, $208K MRR by Dec
+Year 3: $8M ARR, 600 customers, $667K MRR by Dec
+```
+
+### Marketplace Financial Model
+
+**Revenue Drivers:**
+
+- GMV (Gross Merchandise Value)
+- Take rate (% of GMV)
+- Net revenue = GMV × Take rate
+
+**Key Ratios:**
+
+- Take rate: 10-30% depending on category
+- CAC for buyers vs. sellers
+- Contribution margin: 60-70%
+
+**Example Projection:**
+
+```
+Year 1: $5M GMV, 15% take rate = $750K revenue
+Year 2: $20M GMV, 15% take rate = $3M revenue
+Year 3: $60M GMV, 15% take rate = $9M revenue
+```
+
+### E-Commerce Financial Model
+
+**Revenue Drivers:**
+
+- Traffic (visitors)
+- Conversion rate
+- Average order value (AOV)
+- Purchase frequency
+
+**Key Ratios:**
+
+- Gross margin: 40-60%
+- Contribution margin: 20-35%
+- CAC payback: 3-6 months
+
+### Services / Agency Financial Model
+
+**Revenue Drivers:**
+
+- Billable hours or projects
+- Hourly rate or project fee
+- Utilization rate
+- Team capacity
+
+**Key Ratios:**
+
+- Gross margin: 50-70%
+- Utilization: 70-85%
+- Revenue per employee
+
+## Fundraising Integration
+
+### Funding Scenario Modeling
+
+**Pre-Money Valuation:**
+Based on metrics and comparables.
+
+**Dilution:**
+
+```
+Post-Money = Pre-Money + Investment
+Dilution % = Investment / Post-Money
+```
+
+**Use of Funds:**
+Allocate funding to extend runway and achieve milestones.
+
+**Example:**
+
+```
+Raise: $5M at $20M pre-money
+Post-Money: $25M
+Dilution: 20%
+
+Use of Funds:
+- Product Development: $2M (40%)
+- Sales & Marketing: $2M (40%)
+- G&A and Operations: $0.5M (10%)
+- Working Capital: $0.5M (10%)
+```
+
+### Milestone-Based Planning
+
+**Identify Key Milestones:**
+
+- Product launch
+- First $1M ARR
+- Break-even on CAC
+- Series A fundraise
+
+**Funding Amount:**
+Ensure runway to achieve next milestone + 6 months buffer.
+
+## Common Pitfalls
+
+**Pitfall 1: Overly Optimistic Revenue**
+
+- New startups rarely hit aggressive projections
+- Use conservative customer acquisition assumptions
+- Model realistic churn rates
+
+**Pitfall 2: Underestimating Costs**
+
+- Add 20% buffer to expense estimates
+- Include fully-loaded compensation
+- Account for software and tools
+
+**Pitfall 3: Ignoring Cash Flow Timing**
+
+- Revenue ≠ cash (payment terms)
+- Expenses paid before revenue collected
+- Model cash conversion carefully
+
+**Pitfall 4: Static Headcount**
+
+- Hiring takes time (3-6 months to fill roles)
+- Ramp time for productivity (3-6 months)
+- Account for attrition (10-15% annually)
+
+**Pitfall 5: Not Scenario Planning**
+
+- Single scenario is never accurate
+- Always model conservative case
+- Plan for what you'll do if base case fails
+
+## Model Validation
+
+**Sanity Checks:**
+
+- [ ] Revenue growth rate is achievable (3x in Year 2, 2x in Year 3)
+- [ ] Unit economics are realistic (LTV/CAC > 3, payback < 18 months)
+- [ ] Burn multiple is reasonable (< 2.0 in Year 2-3)
+- [ ] Headcount scales with revenue (revenue per employee growing)
+- [ ] Gross margin is appropriate for business model
+- [ ] S&M spending aligns with CAC and growth targets
+
+**Benchmark Against Peers:**
+Compare key metrics to similar companies at similar stage.
+
+**Investor Feedback:**
+Share model with advisors or investors for feedback on assumptions.
+
+## Additional Resources
+
+### Reference Files
+
+For detailed model structures and advanced techniques:
+
+- **`references/model-templates.md`** - Complete financial model templates by business model
+- **`references/unit-economics.md`** - Deep dive on CAC, LTV, payback, and efficiency metrics
+- **`references/fundraising-scenarios.md`** - Modeling funding rounds and dilution
+
+### Example Files
+
+Working financial models with formulas:
+
+- **`examples/saas-financial-model.md`** - Complete 3-year SaaS model with cohort analysis
+- **`examples/marketplace-model.md`** - Marketplace GMV and take rate projections
+- **`examples/scenario-analysis.md`** - Three-scenario framework with sensitivities
+
+## Quick Start
+
+To create a startup financial model:
+
+1. **Define business model** - Revenue drivers and pricing
+2. **Project revenue** - Cohort-based with retention
+3. **Model costs** - COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A by month
+4. **Plan headcount** - Hiring by role and department
+5. **Calculate cash flow** - Revenue - expenses = burn/runway
+6. **Compute metrics** - CAC, LTV, burn multiple, runway
+7. **Create scenarios** - Conservative, base, optimistic
+8. **Validate assumptions** - Sanity check and benchmark
+9. **Integrate fundraising** - Model funding rounds and milestones
+
+For complete templates and formulas, reference the `references/` and `examples/` files.