@stacksjs/defaults 0.75.109 → 0.75.110

package/ai/skills/stacks-marketing-plan/references/idea-cross-reference.md

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+# Idea Cross-Reference - 139 Marketing Ideas Mapped to AARRR
+
+The `stacks-marketing-ideas` skill catalogs 139 proven marketing tactics. This doc is the source-of-truth mapping: every idea assigned to a primary AARRR stage, with notes for when it's typically active and what category constraints apply.
+
+The plan's Section 12 ("Tactical idea bank") uses this mapping as the base, then layers client-specific filters: brand voice rules might skip some ideas; funding stage might shift Q-status; client category might rule out others.
+
+## How to read this doc
+
+- **139 unique ideas, 144 entries.** Five ideas cross-cut multiple AARRR stages and appear under each stage they serve (#79 Early-Access Referrals, #86 Lifetime Deals, #91 In-App Upsells, #114 Moneyball Marketing, #117 Product Competitions). Each duplicate row carries a cross-cut note.
+- **"Entries" counts rows; idea IDs are unique.** Section header counts reflect rows in this doc, not unique ideas from `stacks-marketing-ideas`.
+- **Numbers correspond exactly to the `stacks-marketing-ideas` skill ordering.** If `stacks-marketing-ideas` reorders or expands, update this doc.
+
+## AARRR assignment for all 139 ideas
+
+### Acquisition (116 entries)
+
+These ideas primarily serve top-of-funnel awareness, traffic, and lead generation.
+
+| # | Idea | Category | Typical stage available |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 1 | Easy Keyword Ranking | Content & SEO | Now (any stage) |
+| 2 | SEO Audit | Content & SEO | Now |
+| 3 | Glossary Marketing | Content & SEO | Q2+ |
+| 4 | Programmatic SEO | Content & SEO | Q3+ (needs data + template system) |
+| 5 | Content Repurposing | Content & SEO | Now (immediate leverage) |
+| 6 | Proprietary Data Content | Content & SEO | Now (if data exists) |
+| 7 | Internal Linking | Content & SEO | Now |
+| 8 | Content Refreshing | Content & SEO | Q2+ (after content base exists) |
+| 9 | Knowledge Base SEO | Content & SEO | Q3+ (after help docs exist) |
+| 10 | Parasite SEO | Content & SEO | Now |
+| 11 | Competitor Comparison Pages | Competitor | Q2+ |
+| 12 | Marketing Jiu-Jitsu | Competitor | Now |
+| 13 | Competitive Ad Research | Competitor | Pre-paid |
+| 14 | Side Projects | Free Tools | Q3+ |
+| 15 | Engineering as Marketing | Free Tools | Q3+ |
+| 16 | Importers as Marketing | Free Tools | SaaS-specific |
+| 17 | Quiz Marketing | Free Tools | Q2+ |
+| 18 | Calculator Marketing | Free Tools | Q3+ |
+| 19 | Chrome Extensions | Free Tools | Browser-relevant only |
+| 20 | Microsites | Free Tools | Q3+ |
+| 21 | Scanners | Free Tools | Specific products only |
+| 22 | Public APIs | Free Tools | Developer/dev tool products |
+| 23 | Podcast Advertising | Paid Ads | Post-budget |
+| 24 | Pre-targeting Ads | Paid Ads | Post-budget |
+| 25 | Facebook Ads | Paid Ads | Post-budget |
+| 26 | Instagram Ads | Paid Ads | Post-budget |
+| 27 | Twitter Ads | Paid Ads | Post-budget |
+| 28 | LinkedIn Ads | Paid Ads | Post-budget (B2B-strong) |
+| 29 | Reddit Ads | Paid Ads | Post-budget |
+| 30 | Quora Ads | Paid Ads | Post-budget |
+| 31 | Google Ads | Paid Ads | Post-budget |
+| 32 | YouTube Ads | Paid Ads | Post-budget |
+| 33 | Cross-Platform Retargeting | Paid Ads | Post-paid-firing |
+| 34 | Click-to-Messenger Ads | Paid Ads | Niche use cases |
+| 35 | Community Marketing | Social & Community | Q3+ |
+| 36 | Quora Marketing | Social & Community | Now |
+| 37 | Reddit Keyword Research | Social & Community | Now |
+| 38 | Reddit Marketing | Social & Community | Q2+ |
+| 39 | LinkedIn Audience | Social & Community | Now (B2B + founders) |
+| 40 | Instagram Audience | Social & Community | Q2+ |
+| 41 | X Audience | Social & Community | Depends on founder bandwidth |
+| 42 | Short Form Video | Social & Community | Q3+ |
+| 43 | Engagement Pods | Social & Community | Generally off-brand |
+| 44 | Comment Marketing | Social & Community | Q2+ |
+| 49 | Monthly Newsletters | Email | Q2+ (Acquisition use: subscriber capture) |
+| 54 | Affiliate Discovery via Backlinks | Partnerships | Q2+ |
+| 55 | Influencer Whitelisting | Partnerships | Post-paid-budget |
+| 56 | Reseller Programs | Partnerships | Q4+ |
+| 57 | Expert Networks | Partnerships | Q3+ |
+| 58 | Newsletter Swaps | Partnerships | Q2+ |
+| 59 | Article Quotes (HARO) | Partnerships | Now |
+| 60 | Pixel Sharing | Partnerships | Post-paid |
+| 61 | Shared Slack Channels | Partnerships | Q3+ |
+| 63 | Integration Marketing | Partnerships | Q3+ |
+| 64 | Community Sponsorship | Partnerships | Q2+ |
+| 65 | Live Webinars | Events | Q2+ |
+| 66 | Virtual Summits | Events | Q3+ |
+| 67 | Roadshows | Events | Q4+ |
+| 68 | Local Meetups | Events | Q3+ |
+| 69 | Meetup Sponsorship | Events | Q3+ |
+| 70 | Conference Speaking | Events | Now (if founder is speakable) |
+| 71 | Conferences (own-hosted) | Events | Q4+ |
+| 72 | Conference Sponsorship | Events | Q3+ |
+| 73 | Media Acquisitions | PR & Media | Series A+ |
+| 74 | Press Coverage | PR & Media | Now (if newsworthy) |
+| 75 | Fundraising PR | PR & Media | When fund closes |
+| 76 | Documentaries | PR & Media | Q4+ |
+| 77 | Black Friday Promotions | Launches | Q4 (seasonal) |
+| 78 | Product Hunt Launch | Launches | At GA or major feature |
+| 79 | Early-Access Referrals | Launches | Pre-launch or GA |
+| 80 | New Year Promotions | Launches | Q1 (seasonal) |
+| 81 | Early Access Pricing | Launches | GA |
+| 82 | Product Hunt Alternatives | Launches | Same as PH |
+| 83 | Twitter Giveaways | Launches | Generally off-brand |
+| 84 | Giveaways | Launches | Q3+ |
+| 85 | Vacation Giveaways | Launches | Q4+ (seasonal) |
+| 86 | Lifetime Deals | Launches | Generally off-brand (damages LTV math) |
+| 87 | Powered By Marketing | Product-Led | Q4+ |
+| 88 | Free Migrations | Product-Led | SaaS-specific |
+| 89 | Contract Buyouts | Product-Led | B2B SaaS only |
+| 97 | Playlists as Marketing | Content Formats | Q3+ |
+| 98 | Template Marketing | Content Formats | Q3+ |
+| 99 | Graphic Novel Marketing | Content Formats | Generally off-brand |
+| 100 | Promo Videos | Content Formats | Q3+ |
+| 101 | Industry Interviews | Content Formats | Q2+ |
+| 102 | Social Screenshots | Content Formats | Q2+ |
+| 103 | Online Courses | Content Formats | Q3+ |
+| 104 | Book Marketing | Content Formats | Q4+ |
+| 105 | Annual Reports | Content Formats | Q4+ |
+| 106 | End of Year Wraps | Content Formats | Q4 (seasonal) |
+| 107 | Podcasts (own-hosted) | Content Formats | Q3+ |
+| 108 | Changelogs | Content Formats | Q2+ |
+| 109 | Public Demos | Content Formats | Now |
+| 110 | Awards as Marketing | Unconventional | Q4+ |
+| 111 | Challenges as Marketing | Unconventional | Q3+ |
+| 112 | Reality TV Marketing | Unconventional | Generally off-brand |
+| 113 | Controversy as Marketing | Unconventional | Brand-dependent |
+| 114 | Moneyball Marketing | Unconventional | Ongoing methodology |
+| 115 | Curation as Marketing | Unconventional | Q2+ |
+| 116 | Grants as Marketing | Unconventional | Q4+ |
+| 117 | Product Competitions | Unconventional | Developer-specific |
+| 118 | Cameo Marketing | Unconventional | Generally off-brand |
+| 119 | OOH Advertising | Unconventional | Series A+ |
+| 120 | Marketing Stunts | Unconventional | Brand-dependent |
+| 121 | Guerrilla Marketing | Unconventional | Brand-dependent |
+| 122 | Humor Marketing | Unconventional | Brand-dependent |
+| 123 | Open Source as Marketing | Platforms | Developer products |
+| 125 | App Marketplaces | Platforms | Platform-specific |
+| 126 | YouTube Reviews | Platforms | Q3+ |
+| 127 | YouTube Channel | Platforms | Q3+ |
+| 128 | Source Platforms | Platforms | B2B SaaS only |
+| 129 | Review Sites | Platforms | Now |
+| 130 | Live Audio | Platforms | Q3+ |
+| 131 | International Expansion | International | Q4+ |
+| 133 | Investor Marketing | Developer/etc | Now (when raising) |
+| 138 | Podcast Tours | Audience-Specific | Q2+ |
+
+### Activation (8 entries)
+
+| # | Idea | Category | Typical stage available |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 47 | Founder Welcome Email | Email | Q2+ (Activation use) |
+| 48 | Dynamic Email Capture | Email | Q2+ |
+| 51 | Onboarding Emails | Email | When UI is stable |
+| 90 | One-Click Registration | Product-Led | Now |
+| 91 | In-App Upsells | Product-Led | Q2+ (cross-cuts Revenue) |
+| 95 | Concierge Setup | Product-Led | Q3+ (high-value users) |
+| 96 | Onboarding Optimization | Product-Led | Now |
+| 124 | App Store Optimization | Platforms | Now (App Store products) |
+
+### Retention (8 entries)
+
+| # | Idea | Category | Typical stage available |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 45 | Mistake Email Marketing | Email | Opportunistic |
+| 46 | Reactivation Emails | Email | Now |
+| 50 | Inbox Placement | Email | Now (technical setup) |
+| 52 | Win-back Emails | Email | Q1+ |
+| 53 | Trial Reactivation | Email | Q2+ (when paywall is firing) |
+| 94 | Offboarding Flows | Product-Led | Q2+ |
+| 135 | Support as Marketing | Developer/etc | Q2+ |
+| 134 | Certifications | Developer/etc | Q3+ (cross-cuts Referral) |
+
+### Referral (5 entries)
+
+| # | Idea | Category | Typical stage available |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 62 | Affiliate Program | Partnerships | Now (when inbound exists) |
+| 79 | Early-Access Referrals | Launches | Pre-launch / GA |
+| 92 | Newsletter Referrals | Product-Led | Q3+ (if newsletter exists) |
+| 93 | Viral Loops | Product-Led | Q3+ |
+| 137 | Two-Sided Referrals | Audience-Specific | Q2+ |
+
+### Revenue (2 entries - most monetization is strategy not tactic)
+
+| # | Idea | Category | Typical stage available |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 91 | In-App Upsells | Product-Led | Q2+ (cross-cuts Activation) |
+| 132 | Price Localization | International | Q4+ |
+
+> **Skipped from Revenue:** #86 Lifetime Deals appears under Launches (Acquisition section) only. It's generally off-brand for subscription products because it damages LTV math; recommend in Section 12's Skip list with rationale, not in stage totals.
+
+### Cross-cutting / brand foundation (2 entries)
+
+| # | Idea | Category | Typical stage available |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 114 | Moneyball Marketing | Unconventional | Ongoing methodology |
+| 139 | Customer Language | Audience-Specific | Now (foundational) |
+
+### Developer-specific / dev tool products (2 entries)
+
+| # | Idea | Category | Use when |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 117 | Product Competitions | Unconventional | Developer tool products |
+| 136 | Developer Relations | Developer/etc | Developer tool products |
+
+## How to apply this to a specific client
+
+For Section 12 of the plan:
+
+### Step 1 - Filter for category fit
+
+For each idea, ask:
+- Does this idea apply to the client's category? (e.g., #16 Importers only for SaaS; #19 Chrome Extensions only for browser-relevant; #136 DevRel only for dev tools)
+- Skip ideas that don't apply, with a note
+
+### Step 2 - Filter for brand voice
+
+For each idea, ask:
+- Does this idea conflict with the client's brand voice?
+- Common conflicts:
+  - **Lifetime Deals (#86)** - conflicts with premium positioning
+  - **Twitter Giveaways (#83)** - often off-brand for serious / clinical / luxury voices
+  - **Humor Marketing (#122)** - off-brand for serious / clinical voices
+  - **Cameo Marketing (#118)** - off-brand for most voices
+  - **Reality TV Marketing (#112)** - off-brand for most voices
+
+If conflict, place in Skip list with explicit rationale.
+
+### Step 3 - Set timing status
+
+For ideas that pass filters, set status:
+- **Now (Q1)** - already in 90-day plan OR can run alongside without new capacity
+- **Q2** - post-bedrock-fix, post-foundation; second-quarter layer-in
+- **Q3+** - post-seed-close, post-GA; expansion moves
+- **Q4+** - long-game / large-investment
+
+Use the "Typical stage available" column as the default. Shift earlier if client has unusual capability (e.g., a celebrity founder shifts Conference Speaking #70 from "Now" to "Now and high-leverage").
+
+### Step 4 - Write the client-specific note
+
+Every "Now / Q2 / Q3+" idea gets a one-line client-specific note. Examples:
+- For idea #11 Competitor Comparison Pages: "Quietude vs. Calm / Headspace / Brain.fm / Endel / Wavepaths - high-intent SERPs"
+- For idea #133 Investor Marketing: "Alex's seed raise - leverage angel backchannel for PR + intros"
+- For idea #15 Engineering as Marketing: "HRV interpretation guide; nervous system self-assessment; sound bath finder directory"
+
+### Step 5 - Sum the bank
+
+After all five AARRR tables + skip list:
+
+```markdown
+### Idea-bank summary
+
+- {Acquisition count} ideas applicable to Acquisition (the dominant stage at {client}'s current stage)
+- {Activation count} to Activation, {Retention count} to Retention
+- {Referral count} to Referral
+- {Revenue count} to Revenue
+- {cross-cutting count} cross-cutting
+- {skipped count} ideas skipped for brand / business-model fit
+
+**What this proves:** the plan is roughly X% of the available tactical surface area, not 100%. {appropriate or not for the stage} - as capacity unlocks across Q2 → Q3 → Series A, the cross-reference becomes the inventory to scale activity without losing strategic coherence.
+```
+
+## How to maintain this doc
+
+If `stacks-marketing-ideas` adds new ideas (it's a living skill - the 139 may become 145 or 160 over time):
+1. Read `skills/marketing-ideas/references/ideas-by-category.md` in the `marketingskills` repo
+2. Assign each new idea to a primary AARRR stage using the rules above
+3. Add to this doc's tables
+4. Update SKILL.md's idea-count reference
+
+## Sources
+
+- `skills/marketing-ideas/SKILL.md` (in the `marketingskills` repo)
+- `skills/marketing-ideas/references/ideas-by-category.md` (in the `marketingskills` repo)

package/ai/skills/stacks-marketing-plan/references/market-sizing.md

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+# Market Sizing
+
+Adapted from a contribution by @imMamdouhaboammar (PR #418).
+
+Use this reference when the market-quality gate raises the question "is this market big enough to plan around?" or when the user asks directly how big a market is. The goal is a defensible range that supports a decision (enter, narrow, validate, or avoid). A precise-looking number with no visible math does more harm than an honest range.
+
+## Define the market first
+
+Sizing a vague category ("healthcare," "SaaS") produces a meaningless number. Before estimating anything, write a one-sentence market definition covering geography, buyer, use case, and price model.
+
+> AI note-taking tools for sales teams at English-speaking B2B SaaS companies with 20-500 employees, sold per seat.
+
+State what is out of scope too (adjacent segments, other geographies, enterprise).
+
+## TAM, SAM, SOM in plain terms
+
+| Layer | Plain meaning | Narrowed by |
+|---|---|---|
+| **TAM** (total addressable market) | Annual spend if every possible buyer of this category bought | Category definition only |
+| **SAM** (serviceable addressable market) | The slice you could actually serve with your product as it exists | Geography, segment, use case, language, price band, integrations |
+| **SOM** (serviceable obtainable market) | What you can realistically win in the next 1-3 years | Channels, budget, sales capacity, conversion rates, competition |
+
+SOM is the number that matters for a marketing plan. TAM mostly matters for fundraising narratives, and a large TAM proves nothing about demand. Size TAM only when someone needs it.
+
+## The four sizing methods
+
+The mini-examples below use one made-up product (an AI note-taker for sales teams) with illustrative numbers, to show the math. They aren't real market data.
+
+
+No single method is reliable alone. Run at least two, then compare.
+
+### 1. Bottom-up
+
+`reachable buyers × expected annual spend × realistic capture rate`
+
+Best for local services, B2B niches, agencies, and marketplaces where buyers can be counted.
+
+**Mini-example** (sales note-taker, SAM):
+- ~18,000 B2B SaaS companies in range (LinkedIn company filter, Crunchbase export)
+- Average 8 sales seats each, $25/seat/month = $2,400/year per account
+- SAM ≈ 18,000 × $2,400 = **~$43M/year**
+- SOM at 1-2% capture by end of Year 1 = **$0.4M-$0.9M ARR**
+
+Weak points: the seat count and capture rate are assumptions. Label them as such.
+
+### 2. Search-led
+
+Estimate demand from high-intent keyword clusters, then apply click and conversion assumptions.
+
+**Mini-example:**
+- High-intent cluster ("AI meeting notes for sales," "Gong alternative," "sales call summary tool"): ~9,000 searches/month across 40 terms
+- Achievable click share at page-one rankings: 10-20% → 900-1,800 visits/month
+- Visit-to-trial 4%, trial-to-paid 20% → 7-14 new accounts/month
+- At $2,400/year per account: **~$0.2M-$0.4M new ARR/year** from search alone
+
+Search volume is an intent proxy. It measures people actively looking, which undercounts latent demand and categories buyers don't search for by name. CPC levels and competitor ad density show how much others will pay for that intent.
+
+### 3. Competitor-led
+
+Infer market size and maturity from what competitors visibly earn.
+
+**Mini-example:**
+- 6 direct competitors; 2 report ARR publicly or via press (~$15M and ~$8M), the other 4 estimated from headcount (~40-80 staff each at ~$150K revenue per employee → ~$6M-$12M each)
+- Combined visible revenue: **~$47M-$71M**
+- Cross-check: review counts on G2 and Capterra, pricing pages, hiring pace, ad activity
+
+If the combined revenue of competitors is larger than your SAM estimate, your SAM is probably too narrow (or competitors serve segments you excluded). In this example, $47M-$71M exceeds the $43M bottom-up SAM, which suggests competitors also sell to enterprise or non-sales teams. If combined revenue is tiny, the category may be early or the demand may be weaker than it looks.
+
+### 4. Channel-led
+
+Size the market you can reach through specific channels with the current budget. This is often the most useful number for an early-stage plan because it bakes in execution limits.
+
+**Mini-example** (Seed stage, $10K/month paid budget):
+- LinkedIn: target audience of ~60,000 sales leaders in segment; $10K/month at ~$80 CPL → ~125 leads/month → 10% to paid → ~12 accounts/month
+- Outbound: 1 SDR, 1,000 accounts/month, 1.5% meeting rate, 25% close → ~4 accounts/month
+- Combined: ~16 accounts/month ≈ **~$0.45M new ARR/year**, capped by budget and headcount
+
+### Triangulate and cross-check
+
+Put each method's result side by side for the same layer (usually SOM or SAM):
+
+| Method | SOM estimate (Year 1) | Key assumption | Confidence |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Bottom-up | $0.4M-$0.9M | 1-2% capture | Medium |
+| Search-led | $0.2M-$0.4M (search channel only) | 10-20% click share | Medium |
+| Channel-led | ~$0.45M | $80 CPL holds at scale | Low |
+
+How to read the comparison:
+- **Compare like with like.** The search-led figure covers one channel, so it's a floor for SOM rather than a competing estimate. Here, bottom-up and channel-led agree around $0.4M-$0.5M, and search alone gets about halfway there, which is consistent.
+- **Estimates overlap** → the overlap is your working range.
+- **Estimates differ by more than ~3×** → one assumption is broken. Find it before presenting any number.
+- **Bottom-up far exceeds channel-led** → demand exists but the plan can't reach it yet. That points to a budget or channel constraint, which belongs in Section 10 (funding-stage unlocks).
+- **Channel-led far exceeds bottom-up** → the reachable-buyer count is probably too low, or the channel assumptions are optimistic.
+
+Top-down analyst reports can serve as a sanity check on TAM. Don't use them as the primary method for a local or niche market, because global category figures rarely translate.
+
+## Evidence and confidence
+
+Label every estimate and every major input.
+
+| Label | Use when |
+|---|---|
+| **High** | Two or more independent evidence types agree, or first-party data (CRM, conversion data, paid search terms) supports it |
+| **Medium** | Credible but incomplete evidence, e.g. competitors are active but their revenue is estimated |
+| **Low** | Plausible inference with thin support, e.g. a global trend with unknown local adoption |
+| **Unknown** | Missing or contradictory data. Turn it into a validation task |
+
+Rank evidence by how close it sits to real buyer behavior:
+1. First-party commercial data (sales notes, CRM, conversion rates, churn reasons)
+2. Observed market behavior (competitor ads, pricing pages, review volume, job posts)
+3. Search and demand proxies (keyword volume, CPC, autocomplete)
+4. Third-party reports (analyst, government, platform data)
+5. Expert opinion (founder interviews, practitioner posts)
+6. Weak proxies (uncited market-size claims, trend articles, AI summaries)
+
+### The presentation rule
+
+Never present a single precise market number without sources. Always show:
+- A **range**, not a point estimate
+- The **assumptions** behind it, listed separately from observed facts
+- The **method(s)** used and whether they agree
+- A **confidence label**
+- The **one assumption** that would most change the answer, and how to test it
+
+Bad: "The market is $4.27B."
+Good: "SAM is roughly $35M-$50M/year (medium confidence), based on bottom-up seat math and competitor revenue. The biggest swing factor is average seats per account; 10 customer calls would tighten it."
+
+## Market attractiveness scorecard
+
+Size alone doesn't make a market worth entering. Score each factor 1-5 and total out of 50.
+
+| Factor | 1 | 3 | 5 |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Demand clarity | Pain is unclear | Pain exists, intent is mixed | Clear repeated buying or search behavior |
+| Budget availability | No clear payer | Payer exists, value uncertain | Clear budget owner and spend precedent |
+| Competitive weakness | Strong incumbents everywhere | Some gaps | Obvious gaps buyers care about |
+| Reachability | Hard to target | Reachable with work | Easy to reach through known channels |
+| Channel feasibility | Channels expensive or unclear | Some testable channels | Clear low-risk validation path |
+| Urgency | Nice-to-have | Periodic need | Triggered, painful, time-sensitive |
+| Proof availability | Hard to prove results | Some proof can be built | Strong proof is easy to show |
+| Execution risk | Heavy regulatory or operational risk | Manageable constraints | Low risk |
+| Speed to signal | Months to learn | 2-6 weeks | 7-14 days |
+| Strategic fit | Weak fit with team and assets | Partial fit | Strong fit |
+
+| Total | Read | Plan implication |
+|---|---|---|
+| 40-50 | Enter now | Plan around the full SOM range |
+| 30-39 | Enter narrowly | Pick one segment or wedge; size SOM for that wedge only |
+| 20-29 | Validate first | Make the first 90 days a validation sprint with kill criteria |
+| Below 20 | Avoid for now | Flag in Section 13 open decisions unless the team has a unique advantage |
+
+Use the scorecard alongside the problem size × frequency gate. A large SOM in the weak quadrant (small, infrequent problem) still constrains CAC and channel mix.
+
+## Where this feeds the plan
+
+- **Section 2 (Strategic frame)**: market definition, quadrant, attractiveness score
+- **Section 8 (Revenue)** and **Section 10 (12-month outlook)**: SOM range as the ceiling for revenue targets
+- **Section 13 (Open decisions)**: low-confidence or unknown inputs, each with a validation task
+
+## Common mistakes
+
+- Treating TAM as proof of demand
+- Using a global report for a local-market decision
+- Reading search volume as market size
+- Presenting one method's output without a cross-check
+- Ignoring substitutes and the status quo (spreadsheets, agencies, doing nothing), which compete for the same budget

package/ai/skills/stacks-marketing-plan/references/measurement-framework.md

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+# Measurement Framework - KPIs, North Stars, Cadence
+
+Every plan needs a measurement section that tells the team how to know if the plan is working. This doc is the source for Section 13's measurement subsection.
+
+**Related docs:**
+- `growth-patterns.md` - the 3-3-2-2-2 VC growth path (3× in years 1-2, 2× in years 3-7 from $1M ARR) and which phase of SaaS growth the company is in ($0-10K / $10K-100K / $100K-1M+)
+- `budget-planning.md` - CAC calculation (blended, not paid-only) and the forecasting reality check (forecasts under $100M ARR are educated guesses, not precise predictions)
+
+## The north-star principle
+
+A north star is one metric that captures the business-model thesis at the highest level. It should:
+- Be derivable from the funnel + revenue model
+- Move slowly enough to be a strategic compass (not whipsawed by weekly noise)
+- Trade off correctly against other metrics - improving the north star should generally improve the business
+
+Don't default to "ARR" or "MRR" alone. Those are outcomes, not norths. Pick something that captures the business model.
+
+## North-star patterns by business model
+
+### B2B SaaS (subscription)
+- **Net Revenue Retention (NRR)** - keeps existing customers + expansion in focus
+- Alternative: "Logo retention × expansion ARR"
+- Why: ARR alone hides churn / lets gross-add growth mask product fit problems
+
+### D2C consumer app (subscription)
+- **Blended LTV / blended CAC** - keeps unit economics honest as paid layer scales
+- Alternative: "Day-35 paid users from cohort × LTV"
+- Why: monthly subscription metrics are volatile; cohort × LTV smooths it
+
+### Hybrid hardware + software (e.g., Quietude)
+- **Blended LTV / blended CAC across hardware + software** - captures the wedge thesis
+- Alternative: "Hardware-buyers-to-subscriber conversion × blended margin"
+- Why: hardware revenue isn't free (cost to make); subscription revenue isn't expensive to acquire if hardware funds it
+
+### Marketplace (two-sided)
+- **Liquidity ratio × take-rate** - captures both sides + monetization
+- Alternative: "Monthly transacting users × take-rate × repeat frequency"
+- Why: GMV alone doesn't capture whether the marketplace is becoming a habit
+
+### Developer tool / open source
+- **Weekly active developers × paid-conversion** - captures both adoption and monetization
+- Alternative: "Weekly active orgs × seats per org × ARPU"
+
+### Content / media business
+- **Daily active readers / listeners × ad revenue per session** - captures both reach and monetization
+- Alternative: "Subscriber count × retention × ARPU"
+
+### Commerce (DTC, non-subscription)
+- **Repeat purchase rate × AOV × frequency** - captures monetization layered on quality of customer
+- Alternative: "Customer LTV / CAC × payback period"
+
+## Leading indicators by AARRR stage
+
+After the north star, every plan needs leading indicators per AARRR stage. These move faster than the north star and trigger investigations.
+
+### Acquisition leading indicators
+- Organic visits/month, total + per pillar (SEO health)
+- App Store / Play Store visit-to-install rate (ASO health)
+- Founder-led social channel growth → email subscriber conversion (LinkedIn / X / Substack funnels)
+- Event-to-app conversion rate (event ROI)
+- Ambassador-attributed visits (referral funnel)
+- Paid CAC by channel (when paid is firing)
+
+### Activation leading indicators
+- Day 1 / Day 7 / Day 35 → paid conversion rate
+- Onboarding session-completion rate
+- First key-action completion (post-signup activation event)
+- App Store conversion rate (install → trial → paid)
+- Trial → paid conversion rate
+
+### Retention leading indicators
+- Day 30 / Day 60 / Day 90 retention
+- Monthly churn rate (gross + net)
+- Lifecycle email engagement (open / click / unsubscribe by flow)
+- Hardware → app activation rate (for hybrid businesses)
+- Win-back / reactivation rate
+
+### Referral leading indicators
+- Ambassador-attributed new subs (via Dub or similar)
+- Share-after-value moment rate (% of users sharing)
+- Two-sided referral completion rate
+- Guides program referrals (when live)
+- NPS score (if surveyed)
+
+### Revenue leading indicators
+- ARPU by cohort
+- Annual plan adoption %
+- Cohort LTV by source
+- Plan mix shifts
+- Eye-mask / hardware attach rate (for hybrid)
+- Expansion revenue (B2B)
+
+## Review cadence
+
+The plan should specify three rhythms:
+
+### Weekly (operational sync)
+- **Who:** fCMO ↔ founder (CEO usually)
+- **Duration:** 30 min
+- **Format:** AARRR scoreboard (current vs. last week numbers across the leading indicators) + this week's ships + blockers
+- **Output:** Action items, decisions made
+
+### Monthly (metrics review)
+- **Who:** fCMO + founder + extended team (CXO, product lead, designer if applicable)
+- **Duration:** 60-90 min
+- **Format:** Full metrics review + comparison against quarterly KPI targets + qualitative learnings + idea bank reprioritization
+- **Output:** Possible plan adjustments, hire decisions
+
+### Quarterly (plan recalibration)
+- **Who:** fCMO + founders + key advisors
+- **Duration:** 2-3 hours
+- **Format:** Full plan review against 90-day and 12-month outcomes, channel-level analysis, funding-stage transition check, recalibration of next 90 days
+- **Output:** Updated plan (could be v2 / v3 document iteration)
+
+## KPI target setting
+
+For each quarter in Section 10, the plan must include 3-5 specific KPI targets. These should be:
+- **Specific** - not "improve retention," but "Day 30 retention from 22% → 30%"
+- **Measurable** - pull from a wired data source
+- **Stretch but plausible** - based on funnel state + historical patterns
+- **Decision-triggering** - if missed, what does that mean? (Adjust strategy, kill a channel, etc.)
+
+### KPI target patterns by quarter
+
+**Q1 (foundation quarter):**
+- Mostly *bedrock* metrics - fixing leaks. "Headphones-gate conversion drop reverses." "Day 1 → paid +25-50%."
+- Some *foundation* metrics - laying tracks. "4 SEO pillars staked." "App Store rewrite shipped."
+- Avoid bold growth targets - the foundations aren't in yet
+
+**Q2 (validation quarter):**
+- Mostly *validation* metrics - does what we built work? "Paid CAC < $X blended." "Organic traffic 1,500-3,500/mo."
+- Some *cohort* metrics - do new cohorts behave better? "Day 7 retention for Q2 cohort vs. Q1."
+
+**Q3 (scaling quarter):**
+- Mostly *scaling* metrics - how far does it go? "Paid scaling to $20-30K/mo with CAC steady." "First B2B install reference case live."
+- Some *capability* metrics - what new things are live? "First Guides pilot launched."
+
+**Q4 (compound quarter):**
+- Mostly *compound* metrics - is the flywheel turning? "50%+ of new subs from non-paid channels." "Ambassador-driven 15-25% of new subs."
+- Some *narrative* metrics - does the Series A story write itself? "Blended LTV/CAC > 3."
+
+## Anchoring against the VC growth path
+
+For VC-backed clients past $1M ARR, anchor 12-month and multi-year targets against the **3-3-2-2-2 rule** (3× in years 1 and 2, then 2× in years 3 through 7). Hitting it is rare; most companies don't. Anchoring against it forces the plan to either match it and show how, or explicitly defend choosing a slower trajectory. Full table and context in `growth-patterns.md`.
+
+For non-VC-backed companies (bootstrapped, founder-funded, profit-focused), the 3-3-2-2-2 doesn't apply. Use linear-pattern targets ("$X MRR added per month") or step-function targets ("$Y revenue jump after the enterprise tier launches") instead.
+
+## Forecasting reality check
+
+A plan derives a budget and an annual goal. It does not produce a 12-month month-by-month forecast that's reliably accurate to the dollar.
+
+**Unless the company is publicly traded, all forecasts are educated guesses.** No startup under $100M ARR consistently hits month-by-month forecasts. Quarterly review is when the plan adjusts - not when variance is treated as failure.
+
+What the plan commits to honestly:
+- The annual goal is a defensible direction-of-travel
+- The budget is the resource commitment that makes the goal plausible
+- The 90-day roadmap (Section 9) is what's actionable now
+- Month-to-month projection is illustrative, not promised
+
+Founders who over-engineer the forecast end up explaining variance every month instead of executing. The plan should resist this - name the annual target, the quarterly KPIs, and the kill criteria. Don't promise the month.
+
+Full context in `budget-planning.md`.
+
+## Kill criteria
+
+For every channel or initiative, the plan should specify when to stop. Often missing from plans, kill criteria force discipline.
+
+Examples:
+- "If a paid channel has CAC > 2× target after 30 days at meaningful spend, pause."
+- "If onboarding Variant 3 doesn't show statistically meaningful lift (or directional lift + congruent qualitative signal) after 4 weeks, move to Variant 1."
+- "If lifecycle Flow 4 has open rate < 12% after 6 weeks, redo subject lines + audience segmentation."
+
+## Guardrail metrics
+
+Some metrics get a hard guardrail (cannot drop below threshold). Useful for protecting brand or unit economics during aggressive growth.
+
+Examples:
+- "Brand voice complaint rate > 1% of customer feedback triggers content review."
+- "Paid CAC > $X for two consecutive months pauses paid scaling pending audit."
+- "App Store rating drops below 4.5 triggers product review."
+
+## Data sources mapping
+
+The plan should name where each metric comes from. This makes it auditable.
+
+| Metric | Source |
+|---|---|
+| Organic traffic | GA4 / Ahrefs |
+| App Store conversion | App Store Connect |
+| Funnel conversion (Day N → paid) | Internal analytics (Mixpanel / Amplitude) or App Store Connect cohort export |
+| Retention | Customer.io segments + product analytics |
+| MRR / ARR | Stripe (via MCP if wired) |
+| Plan mix | Stripe |
+| Lifecycle email metrics | Customer.io |
+| Ambassador attribution | Dub.co |
+| Hardware → app activation | Shopify + App Store + internal join |
+| NPS | Survey tool (Customer.io / Typeform / SurveyMonkey) |
+
+## When data isn't wired
+
+If a metric can't currently be measured, flag it in Section 13's open decisions. Example:
+
+> "Hardware → app activation rate not currently visible in the App Store dashboard. Requires Shopify ↔ App Store Connect join. Q1 work item."
+
+A plan with un-measurable goals is a plan that can't be validated. Surface the instrumentation work explicitly.
+
+## Reporting cadence + automation
+
+Where possible, auto-generate the metrics review rather than building it manually each time. Stripe MCP + GA4 MCP + Customer.io MCP can pull most of what's needed.
+
+For Tier 1 clients, a simple weekly metrics email to the team (Markdown table, generated via skills + MCPs) costs nothing and creates discipline.
+
+For Tier 2+ clients, consider a real dashboard (Hex, Metabase, Looker, or internal tool).