@furongjun1999/dsh-memory 0.4.10 → 0.5.0

package/md_cg/whitebox_kb/wisdom/causal_discover.py

@@ -1,432 +1,432 @@
-# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
-"""灵枢 · 因果候选生成器 causal_discover（v1.16 · R 维进化）
-
-设计（爸爸：条件论对自身的使用）：
-  用条件论七操作处理**系统自身的行为数据**（被拒路径/预测未命中），
-  生成因果假设 → 结合物理信息基底校准（可观测预测 → 验证回路）给出因果分析。
-
-七操作映射：
-  识别 ← 扫描被拒路径/预测未命中 → 异常模式（系统失败的输入=未知因果线索）
-  声明 ← 异常 → 候选因果主张（带条件空间）
-  组合 ← 相似被拒路径聚合 → 同原因多次失败 = 强因果信号
-  分离 ← dex_analyze 七操作剥离混淆（逆转测试查因果方向/统计卡查证据）
-  逆转 ← 因果方向检查（A→B 还是 B→A 还是第三变量）
-  循环 ← 输出可观测预测 → 验证回路（物理基底）→ 命中强化/未命中否决
-
-输出：因果候选（条件空间声明 + 可验证预测），交验证回路 + 设计者终裁 → causal 边入图。
-"""
-import os
-import sys
-import re
-import time
-from typing import Optional
-
-HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-sys.path.insert(0, HERE)
-
-
-class CausalDiscoverer:
-    """条件论七操作对自身：行为数据 → 因果候选 → 可验证预测。"""
-
-    def __init__(self, engine, dex=None, cg=None):
-        """因果发现器初始化（候选机制集与置信先验挂入）。
-
-        双模（写路径收口 · md 真源裁定）：
-        - `cg` 给定 → 候选节点/状态迁移/causal 边全写 md 语料
-          （cg.add episodic / cg.update_tags / cg.append_edge）。
-          **engine 仍必挂**：异常信号（被拒路径/hit_history）是引擎
-          运行时过程数据，非知识真源物，维持 engine 消费——形态与
-          pattern_separation（engine 可 None）不同，如实标注。
-        - `cg` 为 None → sqlite 派生库旧路（兜底）。
-        """
-        self.engine = engine
-        self.dex = dex  # 智慧之书 ConditionDex（供分离/逆转检查）
-        self.cg = cg
-        self._mdc = None
-
-    def _md_conn(self):
-        """md 模式只读连接（懒加载，root 取 cg.root）。"""
-        if self._mdc is None:
-            from md_access import MdConn
-            self._mdc = MdConn(self.cg.root)
-        return self._mdc
-
-    # ---------------- 识别（反向·识别操作） ----------------
-    def _scan_anomalies(self, limit=8):
-        """扫描异常模式：open 被拒路径（系统在这些输入上失败）。
-        被拒路径 = 预测/处理失败的输入——未知因果的线索。"""
-        anomalies = []
-        try:
-            paths = self.engine.list_rejected_paths(status="open") if hasattr(
-                self.engine, "list_rejected_paths") else []
-            # 按 description 聚类（同原因多次失败）
-            clusters = {}
-            for p in paths:
-                desc = (p.get("description") or "")[:60]
-                key = desc[:20]
-                clusters.setdefault(key, []).append(p)
-            for key, group in clusters.items():
-                anomalies.append({
-                    "type": "rejected_path_cluster",
-                    "description": key,
-                    "count": len(group),
-                    "reasons": list(dict.fromkeys(
-                        (p.get("reason") or "")[:30] for p in group))[:3],
-                    "evidence": group[0].get("evidence", ""),
-                })
-        except Exception:
-            pass
-        # 预测未命中（hit_history 尾部 false）
-        try:
-            hist = getattr(getattr(self.engine, "_prediction", None),
-                           "_hit_history", []) or []
-            misses = sum(1 for h in hist[-20:] if not h)
-            if misses >= 3:
-                anomalies.append({
-                    "type": "prediction_miss",
-                    "description": f"近20次预测未命中 {misses} 次",
-                    "count": misses,
-                    "reasons": ["预测-验证闭环持续未命中=未知机制"],
-                    "evidence": "hit_history",
-                })
-        except Exception:
-            pass
-        return anomalies[:limit]
-
-    # ---------------- 声明（反向·声明操作） ----------------
-    def _declare_candidate(self, anomaly):
-        """异常 → 候选因果主张（条件空间声明）。"""
-        desc = anomaly["description"] or ""
-        reason = (anomaly.get("reasons") or ["未知"])[0]
-        return {
-            "claim": f"「{desc}」与「{reason}」可能存在因果相关（重复失败=机制性原因而非偶然）",
-            "type": "causal_candidate",
-            "condition_space": {
-                "observation_position": "灵枢行为观测层（被拒路径/预测反馈）",
-                "observation_tool": "rejected_paths 聚类 + hit_history 分析",
-                "time_window": [0.0, time.time()],
-                "existence_constraint": f"候选未验证——仅在重复失败 {anomaly.get('count',1)} 次的证据下成立，需物理基底验证",
-            },
-            "source_anomaly": anomaly,
-        }
-
-    # ---------------- 分离 + 逆转（dex_analyze 七操作） ----------------
-    def _separate_invert(self, candidate):
-        """剥离混淆 + 因果方向检查（复用智慧之书 dex_analyze 的七操作）。
-        逆转：排除逆向因果与第三变量（_t_invert 语义）。"""
-        checks = []
-        if self.dex is not None:
-            try:
-                ana = self.dex.dex_analyze(candidate["claim"], limit=3)
-                premises = ana.get("premises", [])
-                has_causal = any(p.get("type") == "因果声称" for p in premises)
-                checks.append({"check": "因果声称识别", "found": has_causal})
-                invert = ana.get("invert", {}).get("status", "")
-                checks.append({"check": "逆转测试", "status": invert})
-            except Exception as e:
-                checks.append({"check": "dex_analyze", "error": str(e)[:40]})
-        else:
-            # 无 dex：规则化逆转检查（含因果词且可证伪）
-            has_causal = bool(re.search(r"因果|导致|相关|因为", candidate["claim"]))
-            checks.append({"check": "因果声称识别", "found": has_causal})
-            checks.append({"check": "逆转测试",
-                           "status": "需验证：因果方向非唯一，需排除逆向因果与第三变量"})
-        candidate["separation_checks"] = checks
-        return candidate
-
-    # ---------------- 循环（可观测预测 → 物理基底） ----------------
-    def _cycle_predictions(self, candidate):
-        """生成可观测预测——物理信息基底校准的输入。
-        如果因果成立（A→B），则在 X 条件下应观察到 Y；预测可执行/可观测。
-        交 prediction_feedback 验证：命中强化 / 未命中否决。"""
-        desc = (candidate.get("source_anomaly") or {}).get("description", "")
-        # 稳定 id：str hash 随进程随机化，md 模式下 candidate_id 兼作
-        # 节点 id（跨轮 verify 追踪），须用内容稳定摘要
-        import zlib
-        cid = f"cc_{zlib.crc32(candidate['claim'].encode('utf-8')) % 10**8:08d}"
-        return {
-            "candidate_id": cid,
-            "claim": candidate["claim"],
-            "source_anomaly": candidate.get("source_anomaly"),
-            "predictions": [
-                {"observable": f"重复处理同特征输入，若机制性原因存在，失败模式应可复现",
-                 "verify_method": "prediction_feedback（验证回路）",
-                 "expected": "复现→强化候选；不复现→否决（偶然）"},
-                {"observable": f"补足缺失知识后，同类输入应转为成功",
-                 "verify_method": "设计者终裁 + 图谱检索",
-                 "expected": "补足后成功→因果确认；仍失败→候选错误"},
-            ],
-            "condition_space": candidate["condition_space"],
-            "note": "物理基底校准：因果候选必须通过可观测预测验证，非仅逻辑自洽",
-        }
-
-    # ---------------- 验证闭环（v1.16 · 物理基底校准） ----------------
-    def verify_candidates(self, window=50):
-        """追踪已存观测层的因果候选状态：
-          - 候选对应的被拒路径仍 open（未修复）→ 候选成立（保持）
-          - 已 consumed（被修复/补足）→ 因果确认（resolve）
-          - 超过 window 轮仍无变化 → 保持待验证（不误杀）
-        返回状态统计。候选存观测层（tags: causal_candidate）。"""
-        if self.cg is not None:
-            return self._verify_md()
-        from aeis_core import MemoryLayer
-        now = time.time()
-        open_paths = set()
-        consumed = set()
-        try:
-            for p in self.engine.list_rejected_paths() or []:
-                key = ((p.get("description") or "")[:20]).strip("「」 \t")
-                if p.get("status") == "consumed":
-                    consumed.add(key)
-                else:
-                    open_paths.add(key)
-        except Exception:
-            pass
-        resolved, still_open, tracked = 0, 0, 0
-        for n in self.engine.store.query_nodes(layer=MemoryLayer.KNOWLEDGE, limit=500):
-            tags = n.tags or []
-            if "causal_candidate" not in tags:
-                continue
-            tracked += 1
-            content = (n.content or "")
-            # 候选对应的异常描述（存观测层时写入的键）
-            key = None
-            for t in tags:
-                if t.startswith("cc_key:"):
-                    key = t[7:].strip("「」 \t")
-            if key and key in consumed:
-                n.tags = [t for t in n.tags if t != "status:candidate_open"]
-                n.tags = list(dict.fromkeys(n.tags + ["status:causal_confirmed"]))
-                self.engine.store.add_node(n)
-                resolved += 1
-                # 因果确认 → 写入 verified causal 边（v1.16 补断链：
-                # 确认只改 tag 从不入图 → 主库 causal 边永远为 0）
-                try:
-                    target_id = self._resolve_causal_target(n)
-                    if target_id and not self._has_causal_edge(n.id, target_id):
-                        from aeis_core import EdgeType
-                        edge = self.engine.add_edge(
-                            n.id, target_id, relation_type=EdgeType.CAUSAL,
-                            confidence=0.6, source_evidence="extracted")
-                        self.engine.verify_edge(edge.id, 0.6)
-                except Exception:
-                    pass
-            elif key and key in open_paths:
-                still_open += 1
-        return {"tracked": tracked, "resolved": resolved, "still_open": still_open,
-                "note": "验证闭环：被拒路径 consumed=因果确认（入 causal 边）；仍 open=候选成立待修复"}
-
-    # ---------------- md 真源支（写路径收口） ----------------
-    def _verify_md(self):
-        """md 真源验证闭环：候选追踪（MdConn 行标签过滤，判据留调用侧）
-        → 状态迁移（cg.update_tags）→ 因果确认边（cg.append_edge，
-        verified=0.6 对齐引擎 verify_edge 语义）。被拒路径状态仍读 engine。
-        """
-        import json as _json
-        from md_access import COLS
-        md = self._md_conn()
-        open_paths, consumed = set(), set()
-        try:
-            for p in self.engine.list_rejected_paths() or []:
-                key = ((p.get("description") or "")[:20]).strip("「」 \t")
-                if p.get("status") == "consumed":
-                    consumed.add(key)
-                else:
-                    open_paths.add(key)
-        except Exception:
-            pass
-        resolved = still_open = tracked = 0
-        for r in md._all_rows():
-            d = dict(zip(COLS, r))
-            try:
-                tags = (_json.loads(d["tags"])
-                        if isinstance(d["tags"], str) else (d["tags"] or []))
-            except Exception:
-                tags = []
-            if "causal_candidate" not in tags:
-                continue
-            tracked += 1
-            key = None
-            for t in tags:
-                if t.startswith("cc_key:"):
-                    key = t[7:].strip("「」 \t")
-            if key and key in consumed:
-                # 幂等：已迁移（无实质变更）不重复计数
-                if self.cg.update_tags(d["id"],
-                                       add=["status:causal_confirmed"],
-                                       remove=["status:candidate_open"]):
-                    resolved += 1
-                target_id = self._resolve_causal_target_md(
-                    d["content"] or "", d["id"])
-                if target_id and not md.has_edge(d["id"], target_id, "causal"):
-                    self.cg.append_edge(d["id"], {
-                        "target": target_id, "relation_type": "causal",
-                        "confidence": 0.6, "verified": 0.6,
-                        "source_evidence": "extracted"})
-            elif key and key in open_paths:
-                still_open += 1
-        try:
-            self.cg.flush()  # 批次持久化边界（autoflush 裂缝纪律）
-        except Exception:
-            pass
-        return {"tracked": tracked, "resolved": resolved,
-                "still_open": still_open,
-                "note": "验证闭环（md 真源）：被拒路径 consumed=因果确认"
-                        "（causal 边 verified 入 md）；仍 open=候选成立待修复"}
-
-    def _resolve_causal_target_md(self, content, self_id):
-        """md 真源 target 解析：实体词 → top_content_match
-        （LIKE 同序等价：importance DESC, length ASC, LIMIT 1）。"""
-        md = self._md_conn()
-        for w in self._extract_entity_words(content):
-            try:
-                hit = md.top_content_match(w, exclude_id=self_id)
-            except Exception:
-                hit = None
-            if hit:
-                return hit[0] if isinstance(hit, (tuple, list)) else hit
-        return None
-
-    # ---------------- causal 边目标解析 ----------------
-    @staticmethod
-    def _extract_entity_words(content):
-        """候选 claim → 实体词序列（「」段→noise 剥离→短词优先）。
-
-        sqlite/md 双路共用的纯函数段（检索端各自实现）。
-        """
-        quoted = re.findall(r"「([^」]+)」", content)
-        noise = {"用户问", "检索不到", "翻译表缺", "图谱无此", "常识卡缺失",
-                 "可能存在", "因果相关", "重复失败", "机制性原因", "预测未命中",
-                 "实际节点", "未知因果", "的线索"}
-        words = []
-        for seg in quoted:
-            seg_clean = seg.replace("「", "").replace("」", "")
-            for piece in re.split(r"[→\-、，。！？\s]+", seg_clean):
-                # 剥离 noise 前缀（如「翻译表缺沸点」→「沸点」）
-                for np_ in sorted(noise, key=len, reverse=True):
-                    if piece.startswith(np_):
-                        piece = piece[len(np_):]
-                        break
-                for w in re.findall(r"[\u4e00-\u9fff]{2,6}", piece):
-                    if w not in noise and w not in words:
-                        words.append(w)
-        # 短实体词优先（2-4 字 = 主题词；长串易 miss 或命中泛节点）
-        words.sort(key=len)
-        return words
-
-    def _resolve_causal_target(self, candidate_node) -> Optional[str]:
-        """确认的候选 → causal 边 target：从候选 claim 提取真实知识节点。
-        prediction 类候选 claim 含 node_xxx（直接提取）；query 类候选无节点 id，
-        从「」引号段提取实体词 → SQL LIKE 图谱检索（去噪音词）。"""
-        import re
-        content = candidate_node.content or ""
-        nids = re.findall(r"node_[a-f0-9_]+", content)
-        if nids:
-            return nids[-1]  # 实际节点（claim 尾部）
-        # query 类：提取「」引号段 → 实体词 → LIKE 检索
-        words = self._extract_entity_words(content)
-        conn = self.engine.store.conn
-        self_id = getattr(candidate_node, "id", "") or ""
-        for w in words:
-            try:
-                row = conn.execute(
-                    "SELECT id FROM nodes WHERE content LIKE ? AND id != ? "
-                    "ORDER BY importance DESC, length(content) LIMIT 1",
-                    ('%' + w + '%', self_id)).fetchone()
-                if row:
-                    return row[0]
-            except Exception:
-                continue
-        return None
-
-    def _has_causal_edge(self, source_id: str, target_id: str) -> bool:
-        """幂等：避免重复写入同一条 causal 边"""
-        try:
-            row = self.engine.store.conn.execute(
-                "SELECT id FROM edges WHERE source_id=? AND target_id=? "
-                "AND relation_type='causal'", (source_id, target_id)).fetchone()
-            return row is not None
-        except Exception:
-            return False
-
-    # ---------------- 主流程 ----------------
-    def discover(self, limit=5, persist=True):
-        """七操作对自身：识别→声明→分离/逆转→循环。
-        返回因果候选（带可验证预测），交验证回路 + 设计者终裁。
-        persist=True：候选存观测层（tags: causal_candidate + cc_key），
-        供 verify_candidates 追踪（物理基底验证闭环）。"""
-        # 1. 识别
-        anomalies = self._scan_anomalies(limit=limit)
-        if not anomalies:
-            return {"candidates": [], "note": "无异常模式（无因果候选信号）"}
-        # 2. 声明
-        candidates = [self._declare_candidate(a) for a in anomalies]
-        # 3. 分离 + 逆转
-        for c in candidates:
-            self._separate_invert(c)
-        # 4. 循环（可观测预测）
-        outputs = [self._cycle_predictions(c) for c in candidates]
-        # 5. 持久化到观测层（验证闭环追踪）
-        if persist:
-            for c in outputs:
-                key = (c.get("source_anomaly") or {}).get("description", "")[:20]
-                # 规范化匹配键：全角引号「」是 claim 排版，非描述内容（v1.16 修 cc_key bug）
-                key = key.strip("「」 \t") or (c.get("claim") or "")[:20]
-                tags = ["观测层", "causal_candidate",
-                        f"cc_key:{key}", "status:candidate_open"]
-                if self.cg is not None:
-                    # md 真源：候选节点入 contextual 层（mdcg 层体系无
-                    # episodic，情境观测落 contextual），id=candidate_id
-                    # （内容稳定摘要）→ 显式查重幂等（同异常重复 discover 不重建）
-                    cc_id = c.get("candidate_id") or ""
-                    if cc_id and self.cg.index["nodes"].get(cc_id):
-                        continue
-                    try:
-                        self.cg.add(cc_id, f"[因果候选] {c['claim'][:60]}",
-                                    layer="contextual", tags=tags,
-                                    importance=0.7)
-                    except Exception:
-                        pass
-                else:
-                    try:
-                        self.engine.add_perception(
-                            f"[因果候选] {c['claim'][:60]}",
-                            importance=0.7, tags=tags, condition_space=None)
-                    except Exception:
-                        pass
-        return {
-            "candidates": outputs,
-            "note": ("条件论对自身的使用：七操作处理自身行为数据（被拒路径/预测未命中）"
-                     "→ 因果候选 → 可观测预测 → 验证回路（物理基底校准）→ 终裁入图"),
-        }
-
-
-# ---------------- 自测 ----------------
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    sys.stdout.reconfigure(encoding="utf-8")
-    from aeis_core.api import Agent
-    agent = Agent(identity="灵枢",
-                  db_path=os.environ.get("LINGSHU_DB") or os.path.join(
-                      os.path.expanduser("~"), ".dsh", "profiles", "web",
-                      "data", "lingshu.db"))
-    # 注入一条被拒路径作为信号
-    try:
-        agent.engine.register_rejected_path(
-            "query", "用户问「水为什么烧开」检索不到沸点知识", "翻译表缺沸点→沸腾映射",
-            evidence="extend_test")
-        agent.engine.register_rejected_path(
-            "query", "用户问「为什么下雨前蚂蚁搬家」图谱无此常识", "常识卡缺失",
-            evidence="extend_test")
-    except Exception:
-        pass
-    discoverer = CausalDiscoverer(agent.engine, dex=agent._get_wisdom())
-    result = discoverer.discover(limit=3)
-    print("=== 因果候选生成器（条件论对自身）===")
-    for c in result.get("candidates", []):
-        print(f"\n候选 {c['candidate_id']}: {c['claim'][:50]}")
-        for s in c.get("separation_checks", []):
-            print(f"  分离/逆转: {s}")
-        for p in c.get("predictions", []):
-            print(f"  预测: {p['observable'][:40]}... ({p['verify_method']})")
-    print(f"\n{result['note']}")
-    agent.close()
+# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
+"""灵枢 · 因果候选生成器 causal_discover（v1.16 · R 维进化）
+
+设计（爸爸：条件论对自身的使用）：
+  用条件论七操作处理**系统自身的行为数据**（被拒路径/预测未命中），
+  生成因果假设 → 结合物理信息基底校准（可观测预测 → 验证回路）给出因果分析。
+
+七操作映射：
+  识别 ← 扫描被拒路径/预测未命中 → 异常模式（系统失败的输入=未知因果线索）
+  声明 ← 异常 → 候选因果主张（带条件空间）
+  组合 ← 相似被拒路径聚合 → 同原因多次失败 = 强因果信号
+  分离 ← dex_analyze 七操作剥离混淆（逆转测试查因果方向/统计卡查证据）
+  逆转 ← 因果方向检查（A→B 还是 B→A 还是第三变量）
+  循环 ← 输出可观测预测 → 验证回路（物理基底）→ 命中强化/未命中否决
+
+输出：因果候选（条件空间声明 + 可验证预测），交验证回路 + 设计者终裁 → causal 边入图。
+"""
+import os
+import sys
+import re
+import time
+from typing import Optional
+
+HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
+sys.path.insert(0, HERE)
+
+
+class CausalDiscoverer:
+    """条件论七操作对自身：行为数据 → 因果候选 → 可验证预测。"""
+
+    def __init__(self, engine, dex=None, cg=None):
+        """因果发现器初始化（候选机制集与置信先验挂入）。
+
+        双模（写路径收口 · md 真源裁定）：
+        - `cg` 给定 → 候选节点/状态迁移/causal 边全写 md 语料
+          （cg.add episodic / cg.update_tags / cg.append_edge）。
+          **engine 仍必挂**：异常信号（被拒路径/hit_history）是引擎
+          运行时过程数据，非知识真源物，维持 engine 消费——形态与
+          pattern_separation（engine 可 None）不同，如实标注。
+        - `cg` 为 None → sqlite 派生库旧路（兜底）。
+        """
+        self.engine = engine
+        self.dex = dex  # 智慧之书 ConditionDex（供分离/逆转检查）
+        self.cg = cg
+        self._mdc = None
+
+    def _md_conn(self):
+        """md 模式只读连接（懒加载，root 取 cg.root）。"""
+        if self._mdc is None:
+            from md_access import MdConn
+            self._mdc = MdConn(self.cg.root)
+        return self._mdc
+
+    # ---------------- 识别（反向·识别操作） ----------------
+    def _scan_anomalies(self, limit=8):
+        """扫描异常模式：open 被拒路径（系统在这些输入上失败）。
+        被拒路径 = 预测/处理失败的输入——未知因果的线索。"""
+        anomalies = []
+        try:
+            paths = self.engine.list_rejected_paths(status="open") if hasattr(
+                self.engine, "list_rejected_paths") else []
+            # 按 description 聚类（同原因多次失败）
+            clusters = {}
+            for p in paths:
+                desc = (p.get("description") or "")[:60]
+                key = desc[:20]
+                clusters.setdefault(key, []).append(p)
+            for key, group in clusters.items():
+                anomalies.append({
+                    "type": "rejected_path_cluster",
+                    "description": key,
+                    "count": len(group),
+                    "reasons": list(dict.fromkeys(
+                        (p.get("reason") or "")[:30] for p in group))[:3],
+                    "evidence": group[0].get("evidence", ""),
+                })
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+        # 预测未命中（hit_history 尾部 false）
+        try:
+            hist = getattr(getattr(self.engine, "_prediction", None),
+                           "_hit_history", []) or []
+            misses = sum(1 for h in hist[-20:] if not h)
+            if misses >= 3:
+                anomalies.append({
+                    "type": "prediction_miss",
+                    "description": f"近20次预测未命中 {misses} 次",
+                    "count": misses,
+                    "reasons": ["预测-验证闭环持续未命中=未知机制"],
+                    "evidence": "hit_history",
+                })
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+        return anomalies[:limit]
+
+    # ---------------- 声明（反向·声明操作） ----------------
+    def _declare_candidate(self, anomaly):
+        """异常 → 候选因果主张（条件空间声明）。"""
+        desc = anomaly["description"] or ""
+        reason = (anomaly.get("reasons") or ["未知"])[0]
+        return {
+            "claim": f"「{desc}」与「{reason}」可能存在因果相关（重复失败=机制性原因而非偶然）",
+            "type": "causal_candidate",
+            "condition_space": {
+                "observation_position": "灵枢行为观测层（被拒路径/预测反馈）",
+                "observation_tool": "rejected_paths 聚类 + hit_history 分析",
+                "time_window": [0.0, time.time()],
+                "existence_constraint": f"候选未验证——仅在重复失败 {anomaly.get('count',1)} 次的证据下成立，需物理基底验证",
+            },
+            "source_anomaly": anomaly,
+        }
+
+    # ---------------- 分离 + 逆转（dex_analyze 七操作） ----------------
+    def _separate_invert(self, candidate):
+        """剥离混淆 + 因果方向检查（复用智慧之书 dex_analyze 的七操作）。
+        逆转：排除逆向因果与第三变量（_t_invert 语义）。"""
+        checks = []
+        if self.dex is not None:
+            try:
+                ana = self.dex.dex_analyze(candidate["claim"], limit=3)
+                premises = ana.get("premises", [])
+                has_causal = any(p.get("type") == "因果声称" for p in premises)
+                checks.append({"check": "因果声称识别", "found": has_causal})
+                invert = ana.get("invert", {}).get("status", "")
+                checks.append({"check": "逆转测试", "status": invert})
+            except Exception as e:
+                checks.append({"check": "dex_analyze", "error": str(e)[:40]})
+        else:
+            # 无 dex：规则化逆转检查（含因果词且可证伪）
+            has_causal = bool(re.search(r"因果|导致|相关|因为", candidate["claim"]))
+            checks.append({"check": "因果声称识别", "found": has_causal})
+            checks.append({"check": "逆转测试",
+                           "status": "需验证：因果方向非唯一，需排除逆向因果与第三变量"})
+        candidate["separation_checks"] = checks
+        return candidate
+
+    # ---------------- 循环（可观测预测 → 物理基底） ----------------
+    def _cycle_predictions(self, candidate):
+        """生成可观测预测——物理信息基底校准的输入。
+        如果因果成立（A→B），则在 X 条件下应观察到 Y；预测可执行/可观测。
+        交 prediction_feedback 验证：命中强化 / 未命中否决。"""
+        desc = (candidate.get("source_anomaly") or {}).get("description", "")
+        # 稳定 id：str hash 随进程随机化，md 模式下 candidate_id 兼作
+        # 节点 id（跨轮 verify 追踪），须用内容稳定摘要
+        import zlib
+        cid = f"cc_{zlib.crc32(candidate['claim'].encode('utf-8')) % 10**8:08d}"
+        return {
+            "candidate_id": cid,
+            "claim": candidate["claim"],
+            "source_anomaly": candidate.get("source_anomaly"),
+            "predictions": [
+                {"observable": f"重复处理同特征输入，若机制性原因存在，失败模式应可复现",
+                 "verify_method": "prediction_feedback（验证回路）",
+                 "expected": "复现→强化候选；不复现→否决（偶然）"},
+                {"observable": f"补足缺失知识后，同类输入应转为成功",
+                 "verify_method": "设计者终裁 + 图谱检索",
+                 "expected": "补足后成功→因果确认；仍失败→候选错误"},
+            ],
+            "condition_space": candidate["condition_space"],
+            "note": "物理基底校准：因果候选必须通过可观测预测验证，非仅逻辑自洽",
+        }
+
+    # ---------------- 验证闭环（v1.16 · 物理基底校准） ----------------
+    def verify_candidates(self, window=50):
+        """追踪已存观测层的因果候选状态：
+          - 候选对应的被拒路径仍 open（未修复）→ 候选成立（保持）
+          - 已 consumed（被修复/补足）→ 因果确认（resolve）
+          - 超过 window 轮仍无变化 → 保持待验证（不误杀）
+        返回状态统计。候选存观测层（tags: causal_candidate）。"""
+        if self.cg is not None:
+            return self._verify_md()
+        from aeis_core import MemoryLayer
+        now = time.time()
+        open_paths = set()
+        consumed = set()
+        try:
+            for p in self.engine.list_rejected_paths() or []:
+                key = ((p.get("description") or "")[:20]).strip("「」 \t")
+                if p.get("status") == "consumed":
+                    consumed.add(key)
+                else:
+                    open_paths.add(key)
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+        resolved, still_open, tracked = 0, 0, 0
+        for n in self.engine.store.query_nodes(layer=MemoryLayer.KNOWLEDGE, limit=500):
+            tags = n.tags or []
+            if "causal_candidate" not in tags:
+                continue
+            tracked += 1
+            content = (n.content or "")
+            # 候选对应的异常描述（存观测层时写入的键）
+            key = None
+            for t in tags:
+                if t.startswith("cc_key:"):
+                    key = t[7:].strip("「」 \t")
+            if key and key in consumed:
+                n.tags = [t for t in n.tags if t != "status:candidate_open"]
+                n.tags = list(dict.fromkeys(n.tags + ["status:causal_confirmed"]))
+                self.engine.store.add_node(n)
+                resolved += 1
+                # 因果确认 → 写入 verified causal 边（v1.16 补断链：
+                # 确认只改 tag 从不入图 → 主库 causal 边永远为 0）
+                try:
+                    target_id = self._resolve_causal_target(n)
+                    if target_id and not self._has_causal_edge(n.id, target_id):
+                        from aeis_core import EdgeType
+                        edge = self.engine.add_edge(
+                            n.id, target_id, relation_type=EdgeType.CAUSAL,
+                            confidence=0.6, source_evidence="extracted")
+                        self.engine.verify_edge(edge.id, 0.6)
+                except Exception:
+                    pass
+            elif key and key in open_paths:
+                still_open += 1
+        return {"tracked": tracked, "resolved": resolved, "still_open": still_open,
+                "note": "验证闭环：被拒路径 consumed=因果确认（入 causal 边）；仍 open=候选成立待修复"}
+
+    # ---------------- md 真源支（写路径收口） ----------------
+    def _verify_md(self):
+        """md 真源验证闭环：候选追踪（MdConn 行标签过滤，判据留调用侧）
+        → 状态迁移（cg.update_tags）→ 因果确认边（cg.append_edge，
+        verified=0.6 对齐引擎 verify_edge 语义）。被拒路径状态仍读 engine。
+        """
+        import json as _json
+        from md_access import COLS
+        md = self._md_conn()
+        open_paths, consumed = set(), set()
+        try:
+            for p in self.engine.list_rejected_paths() or []:
+                key = ((p.get("description") or "")[:20]).strip("「」 \t")
+                if p.get("status") == "consumed":
+                    consumed.add(key)
+                else:
+                    open_paths.add(key)
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+        resolved = still_open = tracked = 0
+        for r in md._all_rows():
+            d = dict(zip(COLS, r))
+            try:
+                tags = (_json.loads(d["tags"])
+                        if isinstance(d["tags"], str) else (d["tags"] or []))
+            except Exception:
+                tags = []
+            if "causal_candidate" not in tags:
+                continue
+            tracked += 1
+            key = None
+            for t in tags:
+                if t.startswith("cc_key:"):
+                    key = t[7:].strip("「」 \t")
+            if key and key in consumed:
+                # 幂等：已迁移（无实质变更）不重复计数
+                if self.cg.update_tags(d["id"],
+                                       add=["status:causal_confirmed"],
+                                       remove=["status:candidate_open"]):
+                    resolved += 1
+                target_id = self._resolve_causal_target_md(
+                    d["content"] or "", d["id"])
+                if target_id and not md.has_edge(d["id"], target_id, "causal"):
+                    self.cg.append_edge(d["id"], {
+                        "target": target_id, "relation_type": "causal",
+                        "confidence": 0.6, "verified": 0.6,
+                        "source_evidence": "extracted"})
+            elif key and key in open_paths:
+                still_open += 1
+        try:
+            self.cg.flush()  # 批次持久化边界（autoflush 裂缝纪律）
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+        return {"tracked": tracked, "resolved": resolved,
+                "still_open": still_open,
+                "note": "验证闭环（md 真源）：被拒路径 consumed=因果确认"
+                        "（causal 边 verified 入 md）；仍 open=候选成立待修复"}
+
+    def _resolve_causal_target_md(self, content, self_id):
+        """md 真源 target 解析：实体词 → top_content_match
+        （LIKE 同序等价：importance DESC, length ASC, LIMIT 1）。"""
+        md = self._md_conn()
+        for w in self._extract_entity_words(content):
+            try:
+                hit = md.top_content_match(w, exclude_id=self_id)
+            except Exception:
+                hit = None
+            if hit:
+                return hit[0] if isinstance(hit, (tuple, list)) else hit
+        return None
+
+    # ---------------- causal 边目标解析 ----------------
+    @staticmethod
+    def _extract_entity_words(content):
+        """候选 claim → 实体词序列（「」段→noise 剥离→短词优先）。
+
+        sqlite/md 双路共用的纯函数段（检索端各自实现）。
+        """
+        quoted = re.findall(r"「([^」]+)」", content)
+        noise = {"用户问", "检索不到", "翻译表缺", "图谱无此", "常识卡缺失",
+                 "可能存在", "因果相关", "重复失败", "机制性原因", "预测未命中",
+                 "实际节点", "未知因果", "的线索"}
+        words = []
+        for seg in quoted:
+            seg_clean = seg.replace("「", "").replace("」", "")
+            for piece in re.split(r"[→\-、，。！？\s]+", seg_clean):
+                # 剥离 noise 前缀（如「翻译表缺沸点」→「沸点」）
+                for np_ in sorted(noise, key=len, reverse=True):
+                    if piece.startswith(np_):
+                        piece = piece[len(np_):]
+                        break
+                for w in re.findall(r"[\u4e00-\u9fff]{2,6}", piece):
+                    if w not in noise and w not in words:
+                        words.append(w)
+        # 短实体词优先（2-4 字 = 主题词；长串易 miss 或命中泛节点）
+        words.sort(key=len)
+        return words
+
+    def _resolve_causal_target(self, candidate_node) -> Optional[str]:
+        """确认的候选 → causal 边 target：从候选 claim 提取真实知识节点。
+        prediction 类候选 claim 含 node_xxx（直接提取）；query 类候选无节点 id，
+        从「」引号段提取实体词 → SQL LIKE 图谱检索（去噪音词）。"""
+        import re
+        content = candidate_node.content or ""
+        nids = re.findall(r"node_[a-f0-9_]+", content)
+        if nids:
+            return nids[-1]  # 实际节点（claim 尾部）
+        # query 类：提取「」引号段 → 实体词 → LIKE 检索
+        words = self._extract_entity_words(content)
+        conn = self.engine.store.conn
+        self_id = getattr(candidate_node, "id", "") or ""
+        for w in words:
+            try:
+                row = conn.execute(
+                    "SELECT id FROM nodes WHERE content LIKE ? AND id != ? "
+                    "ORDER BY importance DESC, length(content) LIMIT 1",
+                    ('%' + w + '%', self_id)).fetchone()
+                if row:
+                    return row[0]
+            except Exception:
+                continue
+        return None
+
+    def _has_causal_edge(self, source_id: str, target_id: str) -> bool:
+        """幂等：避免重复写入同一条 causal 边"""
+        try:
+            row = self.engine.store.conn.execute(
+                "SELECT id FROM edges WHERE source_id=? AND target_id=? "
+                "AND relation_type='causal'", (source_id, target_id)).fetchone()
+            return row is not None
+        except Exception:
+            return False
+
+    # ---------------- 主流程 ----------------
+    def discover(self, limit=5, persist=True):
+        """七操作对自身：识别→声明→分离/逆转→循环。
+        返回因果候选（带可验证预测），交验证回路 + 设计者终裁。
+        persist=True：候选存观测层（tags: causal_candidate + cc_key），
+        供 verify_candidates 追踪（物理基底验证闭环）。"""
+        # 1. 识别
+        anomalies = self._scan_anomalies(limit=limit)
+        if not anomalies:
+            return {"candidates": [], "note": "无异常模式（无因果候选信号）"}
+        # 2. 声明
+        candidates = [self._declare_candidate(a) for a in anomalies]
+        # 3. 分离 + 逆转
+        for c in candidates:
+            self._separate_invert(c)
+        # 4. 循环（可观测预测）
+        outputs = [self._cycle_predictions(c) for c in candidates]
+        # 5. 持久化到观测层（验证闭环追踪）
+        if persist:
+            for c in outputs:
+                key = (c.get("source_anomaly") or {}).get("description", "")[:20]
+                # 规范化匹配键：全角引号「」是 claim 排版，非描述内容（v1.16 修 cc_key bug）
+                key = key.strip("「」 \t") or (c.get("claim") or "")[:20]
+                tags = ["观测层", "causal_candidate",
+                        f"cc_key:{key}", "status:candidate_open"]
+                if self.cg is not None:
+                    # md 真源：候选节点入 contextual 层（mdcg 层体系无
+                    # episodic，情境观测落 contextual），id=candidate_id
+                    # （内容稳定摘要）→ 显式查重幂等（同异常重复 discover 不重建）
+                    cc_id = c.get("candidate_id") or ""
+                    if cc_id and self.cg.index["nodes"].get(cc_id):
+                        continue
+                    try:
+                        self.cg.add(cc_id, f"[因果候选] {c['claim'][:60]}",
+                                    layer="contextual", tags=tags,
+                                    importance=0.7)
+                    except Exception:
+                        pass
+                else:
+                    try:
+                        self.engine.add_perception(
+                            f"[因果候选] {c['claim'][:60]}",
+                            importance=0.7, tags=tags, condition_space=None)
+                    except Exception:
+                        pass
+        return {
+            "candidates": outputs,
+            "note": ("条件论对自身的使用：七操作处理自身行为数据（被拒路径/预测未命中）"
+                     "→ 因果候选 → 可观测预测 → 验证回路（物理基底校准）→ 终裁入图"),
+        }
+
+
+# ---------------- 自测 ----------------
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.stdout.reconfigure(encoding="utf-8")
+    from aeis_core.api import Agent
+    agent = Agent(identity="灵枢",
+                  db_path=os.environ.get("LINGSHU_DB") or os.path.join(
+                      os.path.expanduser("~"), ".dsh", "profiles", "web",
+                      "data", "lingshu.db"))
+    # 注入一条被拒路径作为信号
+    try:
+        agent.engine.register_rejected_path(
+            "query", "用户问「水为什么烧开」检索不到沸点知识", "翻译表缺沸点→沸腾映射",
+            evidence="extend_test")
+        agent.engine.register_rejected_path(
+            "query", "用户问「为什么下雨前蚂蚁搬家」图谱无此常识", "常识卡缺失",
+            evidence="extend_test")
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+    discoverer = CausalDiscoverer(agent.engine, dex=agent._get_wisdom())
+    result = discoverer.discover(limit=3)
+    print("=== 因果候选生成器（条件论对自身）===")
+    for c in result.get("candidates", []):
+        print(f"\n候选 {c['candidate_id']}: {c['claim'][:50]}")
+        for s in c.get("separation_checks", []):
+            print(f"  分离/逆转: {s}")
+        for p in c.get("predictions", []):
+            print(f"  预测: {p['observable'][:40]}... ({p['verify_method']})")
+    print(f"\n{result['note']}")
+    agent.close()