sapor 0.1b1 → 0.2a1

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Files changed (324) hide show
  1. checksums.yaml +5 -5
  2. data/Example-Catalonia.md +361 -0
  3. data/Example-Flanders.md +486 -0
  4. data/Example-Greece.md +25 -0
  5. data/Example-Oslo.md +678 -0
  6. data/Example-UnitedKingdom-Referendum.md +132 -0
  7. data/Examples.md +9 -355
  8. data/README.md +41 -8
  9. data/bin/create_installation_package.sh +2 -2
  10. data/bin/install.sh +1 -1
  11. data/bin/sapor.rb +4 -2
  12. data/bin/sapor.sh +10 -9
  13. data/data/hu/hungary-2014.txt +1680 -0
  14. data/data/hu/hungary_2014_screen_scraper.rb +48 -0
  15. data/data/hu/hungary_2014_to_psv.rb +80 -0
  16. data/data/hu/index-2014.txt +106 -0
  17. data/data/pl/2015-gl-lis-okr.csv +42 -0
  18. data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv.rb +79 -0
  19. data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_ko_and_rsw.rb +94 -0
  20. data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_ko_konf_kp_l_and_zp.rb +100 -0
  21. data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_ko_sld_and_wi.rb +92 -0
  22. data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_sld.rb +84 -0
  23. data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_sld_and_wi.rb +85 -0
  24. data/data/uk/inject_ukip_2015_as_brexit_2019_in_2017.rb +54 -0
  25. data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2015.txt +651 -0
  26. data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2015_to_psv.rb +104 -0
  27. data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017.txt +651 -0
  28. data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017_to_psv.rb +104 -0
  29. data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017_to_psv_with_brexit_and_chuk.rb +113 -0
  30. data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017_to_psv_with_tig.rb +111 -0
  31. data/lib/sapor/binomials_cache.rb +1 -1
  32. data/lib/sapor/combinations_distribution.rb +43 -1
  33. data/lib/sapor/denominators.rb +67 -0
  34. data/lib/sapor/dichotomies.rb +41 -1
  35. data/lib/sapor/dichotomy.rb +31 -5
  36. data/lib/sapor/first_past_the_post.rb +6 -2
  37. data/lib/sapor/largest_remainder.rb +118 -0
  38. data/lib/sapor/log4r_logger.rb +1 -1
  39. data/lib/sapor/log_facade.rb +1 -1
  40. data/lib/sapor/{leveled_proportional.rb → multi_district_leveled_proportional.rb} +7 -7
  41. data/lib/sapor/{proportional.rb → multi_district_proportional.rb} +27 -32
  42. data/lib/sapor/multi_district_variable_threshold_proportional.rb +128 -0
  43. data/lib/sapor/number_formatter.rb +1 -1
  44. data/lib/sapor/options.rb +73 -0
  45. data/lib/sapor/poll.rb +178 -29
  46. data/lib/sapor/polychotomy.rb +100 -259
  47. data/lib/sapor/pseudorandom_multirange_enumerator.rb +1 -1
  48. data/lib/sapor/referendum_polychotomy.rb +165 -0
  49. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/area.rb +4 -2
  50. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/austria.rb +84 -0
  51. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-brussels-2014.psv +46 -0
  52. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-brussels-20190526.psv +33 -0
  53. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-flanders-2014.psv +80 -0
  54. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-flanders-20190526.psv +74 -0
  55. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-wallonia-2014.psv +114 -0
  56. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-wallonia-20190526.psv +93 -0
  57. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium.rb +97 -0
  58. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium_brussels.rb +62 -0
  59. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium_flanders.rb +64 -0
  60. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium_wallonia.rb +63 -0
  61. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2012-2015.psv +1 -1
  62. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2012.psv +1 -1
  63. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2015-jxcat.psv +68 -0
  64. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2015-no-jxsi.psv +68 -0
  65. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2015.psv +63 -0
  66. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-jxcat.rb +109 -0
  67. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-no-jxsi.rb +96 -0
  68. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia.rb +27 -21
  69. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark-20150618-with-e-and-p.psv +164 -0
  70. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark-20150618-with-e.psv +153 -0
  71. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark-20150618-with-p.psv +153 -0
  72. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark-20150618.psv +142 -0
  73. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark.rb +128 -0
  74. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark_with_e.rb +128 -0
  75. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark_with_e_and_p.rb +128 -0
  76. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark_with_p.rb +128 -0
  77. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/estonia.rb +88 -0
  78. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-great-britain-20140522-brexit-chuk.psv +172 -0
  79. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-great-britain-20140522.psv +146 -0
  80. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-great-britain-20190523.psv +141 -0
  81. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014-ia-ri-sd.psv +64 -0
  82. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014-ia-sd.psv +60 -0
  83. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014-ia.psv +56 -0
  84. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014-sd.psv +56 -0
  85. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014.psv +50 -0
  86. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-20190524-ia.psv +58 -0
  87. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-20190524.psv +52 -0
  88. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_austria.rb +76 -0
  89. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_croatia.rb +81 -0
  90. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_denmark.rb +77 -0
  91. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_estonia.rb +74 -0
  92. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_finland.rb +74 -0
  93. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_ireland.rb +96 -0
  94. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_ireland_with_ia.rb +97 -0
  95. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_italy.rb +83 -0
  96. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_netherlands.rb +81 -0
  97. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_poland.rb +79 -0
  98. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_romania.rb +78 -0
  99. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_slovakia.rb +80 -0
  100. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_spain.rb +82 -0
  101. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_sweden.rb +76 -0
  102. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_austria.rb +76 -0
  103. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_bulgaria.rb +81 -0
  104. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_croatia.rb +81 -0
  105. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_cyprus.rb +72 -0
  106. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_czech_republic.rb +82 -0
  107. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_denmark.rb +77 -0
  108. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_estonia.rb +74 -0
  109. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_finland.rb +74 -0
  110. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_flanders.rb +74 -0
  111. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_france.rb +84 -0
  112. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_france_2019.rb +84 -0
  113. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_french_community_of_belgium.rb +73 -0
  114. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_germany.rb +86 -0
  115. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_great_britain.rb +98 -0
  116. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_greece.rb +77 -0
  117. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_hungary.rb +76 -0
  118. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_ireland.rb +96 -0
  119. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_ireland_with_ia.rb +97 -0
  120. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_italy.rb +83 -0
  121. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_latvia.rb +81 -0
  122. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_lithuania.rb +80 -0
  123. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_luxembourg.rb +75 -0
  124. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_malta.rb +71 -0
  125. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_netherlands.rb +81 -0
  126. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_northern_ireland.rb +75 -0
  127. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_poland.rb +79 -0
  128. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_portugal.rb +75 -0
  129. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_romania.rb +78 -0
  130. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_slovakia.rb +81 -0
  131. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_slovenia.rb +85 -0
  132. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_spain.rb +82 -0
  133. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_sweden.rb +76 -0
  134. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/finland-20150419-with-sin.psv +224 -0
  135. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/finland-20150419.psv +212 -0
  136. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/finland.rb +107 -0
  137. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/finland_with_sin.rb +107 -0
  138. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/flanders-2014.psv +96 -0
  139. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/flanders-20190526.psv +87 -0
  140. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/flanders.rb +115 -0
  141. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/france.rb +38 -0
  142. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/greece.rb +92 -0
  143. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/hungary-2014.psv +2104 -0
  144. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/hungary.rb +116 -0
  145. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/iceland-20161029-midflokkurinn.psv +94 -0
  146. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/iceland-20161029.psv +88 -0
  147. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/iceland-20171028.psv +85 -0
  148. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/iceland.rb +133 -0
  149. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia-20141004-kpv-p-par.psv +109 -0
  150. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia-20141004-kpv-par.psv +103 -0
  151. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia-20141004-kpv.psv +97 -0
  152. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia-20141004.psv +89 -0
  153. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia.rb +112 -0
  154. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia_kpv.rb +112 -0
  155. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia_kpv_p_par.rb +112 -0
  156. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia_kpv_par.rb +112 -0
  157. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/luxembourg-20131020.psv +76 -0
  158. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/luxembourg.rb +82 -0
  159. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/netherlands.rb +108 -0
  160. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/norway.rb +85 -68
  161. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/norwegian_municipality.rb +68 -0
  162. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-ko-and-l-without-n-po-r-and-zl.psv +321 -0
  163. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-ko-konf-kp-l-and-zp-without-k-k15-n-pis-po-psl-r-and-zl.psv +280 -0
  164. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-ko-sld-and-wi-without-n-po-and-zl.psv +403 -0
  165. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-sld-and-wi-without-zl.psv +444 -0
  166. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-sld-without-zl.psv +403 -0
  167. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025.psv +403 -0
  168. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland.rb +125 -0
  169. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_ko_and_l_without_n_po_r_and_zl.rb +122 -0
  170. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_ko_konf_kp_l_and_zp_without_k_k15_n_pis_po_psl_r_and_zl.rb +123 -0
  171. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_ko_sld_and_wi_without_n_po_and_zl.rb +125 -0
  172. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_sld_and_wi_without_zl.rb +126 -0
  173. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_sld_without_zl.rb +126 -0
  174. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-a-and-ch-without-paf.psv +438 -0
  175. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-a-and-il-without-paf.psv +438 -0
  176. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-a-ch-and-il-without-paf.psv +461 -0
  177. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-a-without-paf.psv +415 -0
  178. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-ch-and-il-without-paf.psv +438 -0
  179. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-without-paf.psv +392 -0
  180. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004.psv +370 -0
  181. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal.rb +101 -0
  182. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_a_and_ch_without_paf.rb +92 -0
  183. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_a_and_il_without_paf.rb +92 -0
  184. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_a_ch_and_il_without_paf.rb +92 -0
  185. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_a_without_paf.rb +92 -0
  186. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_ch_and_il_without_paf.rb +92 -0
  187. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_without_paf.rb +92 -0
  188. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/slovakia.rb +81 -0
  189. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/slovenia.rb +114 -0
  190. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/spain-20160626.psv +619 -0
  191. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/spain.rb +136 -0
  192. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/sweden.rb +92 -0
  193. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/sweden_20140914.rb +89 -0
  194. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-2015.psv +4358 -0
  195. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608-brexit-chuk.psv +5154 -0
  196. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608-brexit.psv +4521 -0
  197. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608-tig.psv +4529 -0
  198. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608.psv +3894 -0
  199. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom.rb +57 -1038
  200. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom_with_brexit.rb +110 -0
  201. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom_with_brexit_and_chuk.rb +111 -0
  202. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom_with_tig.rb +111 -0
  203. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/utopia.rb +2 -2
  204. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/wallonia-2014.psv +101 -0
  205. data/lib/sapor/regional_data/wallonia.rb +97 -0
  206. data/lib/sapor/representatives_polychotomy.rb +338 -0
  207. data/lib/sapor/single_district_proportional.rb +75 -0
  208. data/lib/sapor.rb +112 -6
  209. data/sapor.gemspec +2 -2
  210. data/spec/integration/area_spec.rb +2 -2
  211. data/spec/integration/poll_spec.rb +6 -1
  212. data/spec/integration/sample.poll +2 -1
  213. data/spec/spec_helper.rb +2 -2
  214. data/spec/unit/area_spec.rb +12 -12
  215. data/spec/unit/austria_spec.rb +76 -0
  216. data/spec/unit/belgium_brussels_spec.rb +58 -0
  217. data/spec/unit/belgium_flanders_spec.rb +62 -0
  218. data/spec/unit/belgium_spec.rb +26 -0
  219. data/spec/unit/belgium_wallonia_spec.rb +65 -0
  220. data/spec/unit/binomials_cache_spec.rb +1 -1
  221. data/spec/unit/catalonia_spec.rb +21 -29
  222. data/spec/unit/combinations_distribution_spec.rb +1 -1
  223. data/spec/unit/denmark_spec.rb +56 -0
  224. data/spec/unit/denmark_with_e_and_p_spec.rb +58 -0
  225. data/spec/unit/denmark_with_e_spec.rb +57 -0
  226. data/spec/unit/denmark_with_p_spec.rb +57 -0
  227. data/spec/unit/denominators_spec.rb +8 -2
  228. data/spec/unit/dichotomies_spec.rb +1 -1
  229. data/spec/unit/dichotomy_spec.rb +1 -1
  230. data/spec/unit/estonia_spec.rb +65 -0
  231. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_austria_spec.rb +61 -0
  232. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_croatia_spec.rb +60 -0
  233. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_denmark_spec.rb +62 -0
  234. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_estonia_spec.rb +94 -0
  235. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_finland_spec.rb +75 -0
  236. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_ireland_spec.rb +72 -0
  237. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_ireland_with_ia_spec.rb +74 -0
  238. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_italy_spec.rb +69 -0
  239. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_netherlands_spec.rb +81 -0
  240. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_poland_spec.rb +69 -0
  241. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_romania_spec.rb +67 -0
  242. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_slovakia_spec.rb +111 -0
  243. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_spain_spec.rb +130 -0
  244. data/spec/unit/european_union_27_sweden_spec.rb +89 -0
  245. data/spec/unit/european_union_austria_spec.rb +61 -0
  246. data/spec/unit/european_union_bulgaria_spec.rb +97 -0
  247. data/spec/unit/european_union_croatia_spec.rb +59 -0
  248. data/spec/unit/european_union_cyprus_spec.rb +65 -0
  249. data/spec/unit/european_union_czech_republic_spec.rb +125 -0
  250. data/spec/unit/european_union_denmark_spec.rb +61 -0
  251. data/spec/unit/european_union_estonia_spec.rb +93 -0
  252. data/spec/unit/european_union_finland_spec.rb +75 -0
  253. data/spec/unit/european_union_flanders_spec.rb +56 -0
  254. data/spec/unit/european_union_france_2019_spec.rb +73 -0
  255. data/spec/unit/european_union_france_spec.rb +73 -0
  256. data/spec/unit/european_union_french_community_of_belgium_spec.rb +61 -0
  257. data/spec/unit/european_union_germany_spec.rb +90 -0
  258. data/spec/unit/european_union_great_britain_spec.rb +87 -0
  259. data/spec/unit/european_union_greece_spec.rb +148 -0
  260. data/spec/unit/european_union_hungary_spec.rb +57 -0
  261. data/spec/unit/european_union_ireland_spec.rb +72 -0
  262. data/spec/unit/european_union_ireland_with_ia_spec.rb +74 -0
  263. data/spec/unit/european_union_italy_spec.rb +69 -0
  264. data/spec/unit/european_union_latvia_spec.rb +76 -0
  265. data/spec/unit/european_union_lithuania_spec.rb +68 -0
  266. data/spec/unit/european_union_luxembourg_spec.rb +63 -0
  267. data/spec/unit/european_union_malta_spec.rb +60 -0
  268. data/spec/unit/european_union_netherlands_spec.rb +81 -0
  269. data/spec/unit/european_union_northern_ireland_spec.rb +66 -0
  270. data/spec/unit/european_union_poland_spec.rb +69 -0
  271. data/spec/unit/european_union_portugal_spec.rb +77 -0
  272. data/spec/unit/european_union_romania_spec.rb +67 -0
  273. data/spec/unit/european_union_slovakia_spec.rb +111 -0
  274. data/spec/unit/european_union_slovenia_spec.rb +77 -0
  275. data/spec/unit/european_union_spain_spec.rb +129 -0
  276. data/spec/unit/european_union_sweden_spec.rb +89 -0
  277. data/spec/unit/finland_spec.rb +65 -0
  278. data/spec/unit/finland_with_sin_spec.rb +67 -0
  279. data/spec/unit/first_past_the_post_spec.rb +6 -5
  280. data/spec/unit/flanders_spec.rb +70 -0
  281. data/spec/unit/france_spec.rb +32 -0
  282. data/spec/unit/greece_spec.rb +118 -0
  283. data/spec/unit/hungary_spec.rb +132 -0
  284. data/spec/unit/iceland_spec.rb +57 -0
  285. data/spec/unit/largest_remainder_spec.rb +79 -0
  286. data/spec/unit/latvia_kpv_p_par_spec.rb +38 -0
  287. data/spec/unit/latvia_kpv_par_spec.rb +38 -0
  288. data/spec/unit/latvia_kpv_spec.rb +38 -0
  289. data/spec/unit/latvia_spec.rb +60 -0
  290. data/spec/unit/luxembourg_spec.rb +54 -0
  291. data/spec/unit/{leveled_proportional_spec.rb → multi_district_leveled_proportional_spec.rb} +12 -14
  292. data/spec/unit/{proportional_spec.rb → multi_district_proportional_spec.rb} +11 -16
  293. data/spec/unit/netherlands_spec.rb +107 -0
  294. data/spec/unit/norway_spec.rb +23 -6
  295. data/spec/unit/norwegian_municipality_spec.rb +89 -0
  296. data/spec/unit/number_formatter_spec.rb +1 -1
  297. data/spec/unit/poland_spec.rb +62 -0
  298. data/spec/unit/poland_with_ko_and_l_without_n_po_r_and_zl_spec.rb +60 -0
  299. data/spec/unit/poland_with_ko_konf_kp_l_and_zp_without_k_k15_n_pis_po_psl_r_and_zl_spec.rb +59 -0
  300. data/spec/unit/poland_with_ko_sld_and_wi_without_n_po_and_zl_spec.rb +62 -0
  301. data/spec/unit/poland_with_sld_and_wi_without_zl_spec.rb +63 -0
  302. data/spec/unit/poland_with_sld_without_zl_spec.rb +62 -0
  303. data/spec/unit/poll_spec.rb +8 -3
  304. data/spec/unit/portugal_spec.rb +66 -0
  305. data/spec/unit/portugal_with_a_and_ch_without_paf_spec.rb +68 -0
  306. data/spec/unit/portugal_with_a_and_il_without_paf_spec.rb +68 -0
  307. data/spec/unit/portugal_with_a_ch_and_il_without_paf_spec.rb +69 -0
  308. data/spec/unit/portugal_with_a_without_paf_spec.rb +67 -0
  309. data/spec/unit/portugal_with_ch_and_il_without_paf_spec.rb +68 -0
  310. data/spec/unit/portugal_without_paf_spec.rb +66 -0
  311. data/spec/unit/pseudorandom_multirange_enumerator_spec.rb +1 -1
  312. data/spec/unit/referendum_polychotomy_spec.rb +289 -0
  313. data/spec/unit/{polychotomy_spec.rb → representatives_polychotomy_spec.rb} +26 -26
  314. data/spec/unit/slovakia_spec.rb +99 -0
  315. data/spec/unit/slovenia_spec.rb +80 -0
  316. data/spec/unit/spain_spec.rb +101 -0
  317. data/spec/unit/sweden_20140914_spec.rb +112 -0
  318. data/spec/unit/sweden_spec.rb +113 -0
  319. data/spec/unit/united_kingdom_spec.rb +65 -0
  320. data/spec/unit/united_kingdom_with_brexit_and_chuk_spec.rb +67 -0
  321. data/spec/unit/united_kingdom_with_brexit_spec.rb +66 -0
  322. data/spec/unit/united_kingdom_with_tig_spec.rb +66 -0
  323. data/spec/unit/wallonia_spec.rb +130 -0
  324. metadata +381 -11
@@ -0,0 +1,486 @@
1
+ Example: Flanders
2
+ =================
3
+
4
+ The following file is a valid poll file for a Flemish poll. It is based on
5
+ the results of a poll conducted between 22 February and 9 March 2016 by TNS
6
+ Media for De Standaard and VRT.
7
+
8
+ Area=BE-VLG
9
+ Type=Election
10
+ ==
11
+ N-VA=274
12
+ CD&V=192
13
+ Open Vld=142
14
+ sp.a=148
15
+ Groen=117
16
+ Vlaams Belang=81
17
+ PVDA=40
18
+ Other=11
19
+
20
+ The following call will use the poll file to run an analysis, provided it has
21
+ been saved as 2016-03-09-DeStandaard-VRT.poll.
22
+
23
+ sapor analyze 2016-03-09-DeStandaard-VRT.poll
24
+
25
+ For this file, the log will look like below.
26
+
27
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Analyzing as a set of dichotomies...
28
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
29
+ Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
30
+ CD&V 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
31
+ Groen 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
32
+ N-VA 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
33
+ Open Vld 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
34
+ PVDA 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
35
+ Vlaams Belang 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
36
+ sp.a 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
37
+ Other 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
38
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 33.3%.
39
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Number of data points: 3.
40
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
41
+ Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
42
+ N-VA 27.8% 22.2%– 33.3% 100.0%
43
+ CD&V 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
44
+ Groen 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
45
+ Open Vld 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
46
+ sp.a 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
47
+ PVDA 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
48
+ Vlaams Belang 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
49
+ Other 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
50
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 11.1%.
51
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Number of data points: 9.
52
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
53
+ Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
54
+ N-VA 27.8% 22.2%– 29.6% 100.0%
55
+ CD&V 20.4% 14.8%– 22.2% 100.0%
56
+ Groen 13.0% 7.4%– 14.8% 100.0%
57
+ Open Vld 13.0% 11.1%– 18.5% 100.0%
58
+ sp.a 13.0% 11.1%– 18.5% 100.0%
59
+ Vlaams Belang 9.3% 7.4%– 11.1% 100.0%
60
+ PVDA 5.6% 3.7%– 7.4% 99.9%
61
+ Other 1.9% 0.0%– 3.7% 0.0%
62
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.70%.
63
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Number of data points: 27.
64
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:06 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
65
+ Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
66
+ N-VA 27.8% 24.7%– 30.9% 100.0%
67
+ CD&V 19.1% 16.0%– 22.2% 100.0%
68
+ Open Vld 14.2% 11.1%– 17.3% 100.0%
69
+ sp.a 14.2% 12.3%– 17.3% 100.0%
70
+ Groen 11.7% 9.9%– 14.8% 100.0%
71
+ Vlaams Belang 8.0% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0%
72
+ PVDA 4.3% 2.5%– 6.2% 5.9%
73
+ Other 0.6% 0.0%– 2.5% 0.0%
74
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:06 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.23%.
75
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:06 INFO: Number of data points: 81.
76
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:08 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
77
+ Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
78
+ N-VA 27.4% 24.3%– 30.5% 100.0%
79
+ CD&V 19.1% 16.5%– 21.8% 100.0%
80
+ sp.a 14.6% 12.3%– 17.3% 100.0%
81
+ Open Vld 14.2% 11.9%– 16.5% 100.0%
82
+ Groen 11.7% 9.5%– 14.0% 100.0%
83
+ Vlaams Belang 8.0% 6.2%– 10.3% 100.0%
84
+ PVDA 3.9% 2.9%– 5.8% 8.4%
85
+ Other 1.0% 0.4%– 2.1% 0.0%
86
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:09 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
87
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:09 INFO: Number of data points: 243.
88
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:15 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
89
+ Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
90
+ N-VA 27.2% 24.6%– 30.2% 100.0%
91
+ CD&V 19.1% 16.7%– 21.7% 100.0%
92
+ sp.a 14.7% 12.6%– 17.1% 100.0%
93
+ Open Vld 14.2% 12.1%– 16.5% 100.0%
94
+ Groen 11.6% 9.7%– 13.9% 100.0%
95
+ Vlaams Belang 8.0% 6.4%– 10.0% 100.0%
96
+ PVDA 4.0% 2.9%– 5.5% 8.7%
97
+ Other 1.0% 0.5%– 2.1% 0.0%
98
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:16 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.137%.
99
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:16 INFO: Number of data points: 729.
100
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:37 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
101
+ Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
102
+ N-VA 27.3% 24.6%– 30.1% 100.0%
103
+ CD&V 19.1% 16.8%– 21.7% 100.0%
104
+ sp.a 14.7% 12.7%– 17.1% 100.0%
105
+ Open Vld 14.2% 12.1%– 16.5% 100.0%
106
+ Groen 11.6% 9.8%– 13.8% 100.0%
107
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 6.5%– 9.9% 100.0%
108
+ PVDA 4.0% 2.9%– 5.4% 7.8%
109
+ Other 1.1% 0.6%– 2.0% 0.0%
110
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:40 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.046%.
111
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:40 INFO: Number of data points: 2,187.
112
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:43 INFO: Analyzing as a polychotomy...
113
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:45 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
114
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
115
+ N-VA 27.3% 10.6% 20.8% 20.8%– 20.9% 100.0% 39– 39
116
+ CD&V 19.1% 6.9% 13.6% 13.6%– 13.6% 100.0% 27– 27
117
+ sp.a 14.7% 5.0% 9.9% 9.9%– 9.9% 100.0% 19– 19
118
+ Open Vld 14.1% 4.8% 9.4% 9.4%– 9.4% 100.0% 18– 18
119
+ Groen 11.6% 3.7% 7.3% 7.3%– 7.4% 100.0% 14– 14
120
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 2.4% 4.5% 4.5%– 4.6% 100.0% 6– 6
121
+ PVDA 4.0% 0.9% 1.7% 1.7%– 1.7% 0– 0
122
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
123
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 50.0% 30.8% 30.8%– 30.8% 0.0% 60– 60 0.0%
124
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 50.0% 34.4% 34.4%– 34.4% 0.0% 66– 66 100.0%
125
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 50.0% 43.8% 43.8%– 43.8% 0.0% 84– 84 100.0%
126
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 50.0% 44.3% 44.3%– 44.3% 0.0% 85– 85 100.0%
127
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 50.0% 23.0% 23.0%– 23.0% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
128
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 50.0% 32.9% 32.9%– 32.9% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
129
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 50.0% 23.5% 23.5%– 23.5% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
130
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 50.0% 26.6% 26.6%– 26.6% 0.0% 51– 51 0.0%
131
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 50.0% 25.4% 25.4%– 25.4% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
132
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 50.0% 19.3% 19.3%– 19.3% 0.0% 37– 37 0.0%
133
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:45 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 100%.
134
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:45 INFO: 1 simulations out of 1 data points, 1 / 24,300,290,385,000,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
135
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:46 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
136
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
137
+ N-VA 27.3% 22.2% 22.2% 22.1%– 22.2% 100.0% 38– 38
138
+ CD&V 19.1% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6%– 14.7% 100.0% 27– 27
139
+ sp.a 14.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7%– 10.7% 100.0% 19– 19
140
+ Open Vld 14.1% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2%– 10.2% 100.0% 18– 18
141
+ Groen 11.6% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%– 8.0% 100.0% 14– 14
142
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%– 5.1% 100.0% 7– 7
143
+ PVDA 4.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7%– 1.8% 0– 0
144
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
145
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 66.0% 33.3% 32.1%– 33.3% 0.0% 60– 60 0.0%
146
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 67.7% 36.8% 35.6%– 36.8% 0.0% 65– 65 100.0%
147
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 72.7% 47.0% 45.4%– 47.0% 0.0% 83– 83 100.0%
148
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 72.9% 47.5% 45.9%– 47.5% 0.0% 84– 84 100.0%
149
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 61.9% 24.8% 23.9%– 24.8% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
150
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 67.1% 35.6% 34.2%– 35.6% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
151
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 62.1% 25.4% 24.4%– 25.4% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
152
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 63.9% 28.8% 27.7%– 28.8% 0.0% 51– 51 0.0%
153
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 63.2% 27.2% 26.3%– 27.2% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
154
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 60.2% 20.9% 20.1%– 20.9% 0.0% 37– 37 0.0%
155
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:46 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.33%.
156
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:46 INFO: 2 simulations out of 2 data points, 1 / 12,150,145,192,500,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
157
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:47 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
158
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
159
+ N-VA 27.3% 24.8% 24.8% 24.8%– 24.8% 100.0% 38– 38
160
+ CD&V 19.1% 16.8% 16.8% 16.7%– 16.8% 100.0% 25– 25
161
+ sp.a 14.7% 12.5% 12.5% 12.4%– 12.5% 100.0% 19– 19
162
+ Open Vld 14.1% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7%– 11.8% 100.0% 19– 19
163
+ Groen 11.6% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1%– 9.1% 100.0% 14– 14
164
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0%– 6.1% 100.0% 8– 8
165
+ PVDA 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%– 1.9% 0– 0
166
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
167
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 68.6% 38.3% 37.1%– 38.3% 0.0% 58– 58 0.0%
168
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 70.1% 41.6% 40.4%– 41.6% 0.0% 63– 63 100.0%
169
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 76.0% 53.3% 51.7%– 53.3% 100.0% 82– 82 100.0%
170
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 76.2% 54.0% 52.4%– 54.0% 100.0% 82– 82 100.0%
171
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 63.9% 28.5% 27.6%– 28.5% 0.0% 44– 44 0.0%
172
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 69.9% 40.9% 39.6%– 40.9% 0.0% 63– 63 100.0%
173
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 64.1% 29.2% 28.3%– 29.2% 0.0% 44– 44 0.0%
174
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 66.0% 33.3% 32.2%– 33.3% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
175
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 64.9% 30.9% 29.9%– 30.9% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
176
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 61.7% 24.2% 23.4%– 24.2% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
177
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:47 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.65%.
178
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:47 INFO: 4 simulations out of 4 data points, 1 / 6,075,072,596,250,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
179
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:48 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
180
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
181
+ N-VA 27.3% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8%– 28.8% 100.0% 38– 38
182
+ CD&V 19.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 26– 26
183
+ sp.a 14.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0%– 15.1% 100.0% 19– 19
184
+ Open Vld 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0%– 14.1% 100.0% 19– 19
185
+ Groen 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%– 10.9% 100.0% 14– 14
186
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%– 7.6% 100.0% 8– 8
187
+ PVDA 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%– 2.0% 0– 0
188
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
189
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 72.3% 45.9% 44.6%– 45.9% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
190
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 73.8% 48.7% 47.5%– 48.7% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
191
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 80.5% 62.8% 61.2%– 62.8% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
192
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 81.2% 63.8% 62.1%– 63.8% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
193
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.8% 34.0% 33.1%– 34.3% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
194
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 73.8% 49.0% 47.7%– 49.0% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
195
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 67.1% 35.0% 34.0%– 35.0% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
196
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 40.7% 40.0% 38.9%– 42.4% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
197
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 68.0% 36.4% 35.9%– 36.4% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
198
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.8% 29.1% 28.3%– 29.4% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
199
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:48 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.98%.
200
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:48 INFO: 8 simulations out of 14 data points, 1 / 1,735,735,027,500,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
201
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:49 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
202
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
203
+ N-VA 27.3% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8%– 28.8% 100.0% 38– 38
204
+ CD&V 19.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 26– 26
205
+ sp.a 14.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0%– 15.1% 100.0% 19– 19
206
+ Open Vld 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0%– 14.1% 100.0% 19– 19
207
+ Groen 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%– 10.9% 100.0% 14– 14
208
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%– 7.6% 100.0% 8– 8
209
+ PVDA 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%– 2.0% 0– 0
210
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
211
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 45.9% 45.9% 45.7%– 46.0% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
212
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 48.3% 48.7% 47.5%– 48.9% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
213
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 62.6% 62.8% 61.8%– 63.1% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
214
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 64.1% 63.8% 63.2%– 64.8% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
215
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 34.0% 34.0% 33.5%– 34.3% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
216
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 49.1% 49.0% 48.3%– 49.7% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
217
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 35.5% 35.0% 35.0%– 35.9% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
218
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 40.3% 40.0% 39.3%– 41.0% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
219
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 36.6% 36.4% 36.2%– 36.7% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
220
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.1% 29.1% 29.0%– 29.2% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
221
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:49 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.80%.
222
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:49 INFO: 16 simulations out of 27 data points, 1 / 900,010,755,000,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
223
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:50 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
224
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
225
+ N-VA 27.3% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8%– 28.8% 100.0% 38– 38
226
+ CD&V 19.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 26– 26
227
+ sp.a 14.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0%– 15.1% 100.0% 19– 19
228
+ Open Vld 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0%– 14.1% 100.0% 19– 19
229
+ Groen 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%– 10.9% 100.0% 14– 14
230
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%– 7.6% 100.0% 8– 8
231
+ PVDA 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%– 2.0% 0– 0
232
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
233
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 45.9% 45.9% 45.7%– 46.0% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
234
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 48.7% 48.7% 48.5%– 48.9% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
235
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 62.8% 62.8% 62.3%– 63.1% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
236
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 63.9% 63.8% 63.2%– 64.3% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
237
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 34.0% 34.0% 33.5%– 34.3% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
238
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 49.1% 49.0% 48.8%– 49.6% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
239
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 35.3% 35.0% 35.0%– 35.5% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
240
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 40.5% 40.0% 40.0%– 40.9% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
241
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 36.4% 36.4% 36.2%– 36.6% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
242
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.1% 29.1% 29.0%– 29.2% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
243
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:50 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.12%.
244
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:50 INFO: 32 simulations out of 74 data points, 1 / 328,382,302,500,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
245
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:51 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
246
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
247
+ N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 24.6% 100.0% 32– 32
248
+ CD&V 19.1% 22.2% 22.2% 19.9%– 22.3% 99.4% 26– 31
249
+ sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%– 15.5% 100.0% 19– 19
250
+ Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%– 14.0% 100.0% 18– 18
251
+ Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.6%– 12.0% 100.0% 15– 16
252
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%– 7.9% 100.0% 8– 8
253
+ PVDA 4.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%– 2.8% 0– 0
254
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
255
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 49.6% 49.6% 49.6%– 49.6% 0.0% 65– 66 97.6%
256
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 47.0% 46.8% 46.6%– 47.1% 0.0% 63– 63 99.4%
257
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.8% 60.8% 60.7%– 60.9% 100.0% 81– 81 100.0%
258
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 62.3% 62.3% 62.1%– 62.4% 100.0% 82– 82 100.0%
259
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 33.7%– 36.4% 0.0% 45– 49 0.0%
260
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 52.4% 51.7% 50.8%– 52.8% 97.6% 68– 68 100.0%
261
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 37.3%– 37.8% 0.0% 50– 50 0.0%
262
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 41.1% 41.4% 40.7%– 41.5% 0.0% 53– 53 0.0%
263
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.5% 32.5% 32.4%– 32.6% 0.0% 40– 40 0.0%
264
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.5% 29.4% 29.4%– 29.6% 0.0% 37– 38 0.0%
265
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:51 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.21%.
266
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:51 INFO: 64 simulations out of 167 data points, 1 / 145,510,720,868,263 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
267
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:53 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
268
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
269
+ N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 26.6% 100.0% 32– 37
270
+ CD&V 19.1% 16.1% 22.2% 16.1%– 22.3% 51.1% 20– 31
271
+ sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%– 17.9% 100.0% 19– 23
272
+ Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%– 14.9% 100.0% 18– 19
273
+ Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%– 12.0% 100.0% 15– 16
274
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.3%– 7.9% 100.0% 8– 8
275
+ PVDA 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 2.7%– 4.3% 0– 2
276
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
277
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 49.6% 49.6% 45.9%– 49.6% 0.0% 58– 66 49.9%
278
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.9% 46.8% 42.6%– 47.0% 0.2% 57– 63 51.1%
279
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 57.6% 60.8% 57.5%– 60.9% 100.0% 76– 81 100.0%
280
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 62.3% 62.3% 60.4%– 62.4% 100.0% 80– 82 100.0%
281
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 30.9%– 36.4% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
282
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 51.7% 48.8%– 51.7% 49.9% 62– 68 51.1%
283
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 33.9%– 37.8% 0.0% 43– 50 0.0%
284
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 44.6% 41.4% 41.4%– 44.7% 0.0% 53– 57 0.0%
285
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.5% 32.5% 32.4%– 34.0% 0.0% 40– 45 0.0%
286
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.5% 29.4% 29.4%– 32.9% 0.0% 37– 42 0.0%
287
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:53 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 6.13%.
288
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:53 INFO: 128 simulations out of 336 data points, 1 / 72,322,292,812,500 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
289
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:54 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
290
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
291
+ N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 29.5% 100.0% 32– 41
292
+ CD&V 19.1% 16.1% 22.2% 16.1%– 22.3% 56.9% 20– 31
293
+ sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.1%– 17.9% 95.1% 15– 23
294
+ Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 12.4%– 14.9% 99.4% 18– 19
295
+ Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%– 12.7% 100.0% 15– 17
296
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.4%– 7.9% 100.0% 6– 8
297
+ PVDA 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 2.7%– 5.7% 0– 5
298
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
299
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 49.6% 49.6% 45.9%– 49.6% 0.0% 56– 66 44.7%
300
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.8% 46.8% 42.6%– 50.8% 4.4% 57– 68 49.8%
301
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.8% 60.8% 57.5%– 63.9% 100.0% 76– 86 100.0%
302
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 60.5% 62.3% 60.4%– 62.8% 100.0% 79– 83 100.0%
303
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 30.1%– 36.4% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
304
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 51.7% 46.0%– 51.7% 44.0% 59– 68 45.7%
305
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 33.2%– 37.8% 0.0% 41– 50 0.0%
306
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 41.4% 41.4% 38.0%– 44.7% 0.0% 50– 57 0.0%
307
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.4% 32.5% 32.4%– 35.9% 0.0% 40– 47 0.0%
308
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 32.8% 29.4% 25.3%– 32.9% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
309
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:54 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.62%.
310
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:54 INFO: 256 simulations out of 716 data points, 1 / 33,938,953,051,676 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
311
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:55 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
312
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
313
+ N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 29.5% 100.0% 32– 41
314
+ CD&V 19.1% 16.1% 22.2% 16.1%– 22.3% 60.5% 20– 31
315
+ sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.1%– 17.9% 94.5% 15– 23
316
+ Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 12.4%– 14.9% 98.6% 18– 20
317
+ Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%– 13.8% 99.8% 15– 18
318
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.1%– 7.9% 100.0% 6– 8
319
+ PVDA 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 2.7%– 5.7% 0– 5
320
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
321
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 46.0% 49.6% 45.9%– 49.6% 0.0% 56– 66 41.7%
322
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.8% 46.8% 42.6%– 50.8% 4.0% 56– 68 46.4%
323
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 57.5% 60.8% 57.5%– 63.9% 100.0% 76– 86 100.0%
324
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 62.2% 62.3% 59.6%– 62.8% 100.0% 75– 83 100.0%
325
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 30.1%– 36.4% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
326
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 51.7% 46.1%– 51.7% 40.5% 59– 68 42.9%
327
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 32.3%– 37.8% 0.0% 39– 50 0.0%
328
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 44.7% 41.4% 38.0%– 44.7% 0.0% 50– 57 0.0%
329
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.4% 32.5% 32.4%– 35.9% 0.0% 40– 47 0.0%
330
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 32.7% 29.4% 25.4%– 32.7% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
331
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:55 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.89%.
332
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:55 INFO: 512 simulations out of 1,433 data points, 1 / 16,957,634,602,233 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
333
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:58 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
334
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
335
+ N-VA 27.3% 27.0% 27.0% 23.3%– 29.5% 100.0% 32– 41
336
+ CD&V 19.1% 17.6% 17.6% 16.1%– 22.3% 84.9% 20– 31
337
+ sp.a 14.7% 14.2% 14.2% 14.0%– 17.9% 56.6% 18– 23
338
+ Open Vld 14.1% 16.3% 16.3% 12.1%– 16.4% 98.8% 15– 22
339
+ Groen 11.6% 12.4% 12.4% 10.9%– 13.8% 99.9% 14– 18
340
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 6.9% 6.9% 6.1%– 8.8% 100.0% 6– 10
341
+ PVDA 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 2.7%– 5.7% 0– 5
342
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
343
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.1% 44.1% 43.0%– 49.6% 0.0% 54– 66 23.9%
344
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 44.6% 44.6% 42.6%– 48.7% 1.5% 56– 64 20.7%
345
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.9% 60.9% 57.5%– 62.0% 100.0% 76– 83 100.0%
346
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 58.7% 58.7% 58.7%– 62.9% 100.0% 75– 83 100.0%
347
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 34.8% 34.0% 29.9%– 36.3% 0.0% 38– 49 0.0%
348
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 48.1% 45.8%– 51.7% 23.6% 58– 68 24.6%
349
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 31.8% 31.8%– 37.7% 0.0% 39– 50 0.0%
350
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 42.9% 42.9% 38.2%– 44.7% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
351
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 33.8% 33.8% 30.9%– 37.3% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
352
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 30.5% 30.5% 26.4%– 32.7% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
353
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:58 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.62%.
354
+ 2016-03-25 08:57:58 INFO: 1,024 simulations out of 2,870 data points, 1 / 8,467,000,134,146 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
355
+ 2016-03-25 08:58:03 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
356
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
357
+ N-VA 27.3% 27.0% 27.0% 24.6%– 28.3% 100.0% 32– 39
358
+ CD&V 19.1% 19.5% 19.5% 16.1%– 22.3% 96.7% 20– 31
359
+ sp.a 14.7% 14.2% 14.2% 12.3%– 17.9% 16.7% 16– 23
360
+ Open Vld 14.1% 14.3% 14.3% 12.1%– 16.4% 99.6% 15– 22
361
+ Groen 11.6% 11.3% 11.3% 10.9%– 12.7% 97.8% 14– 17
362
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.9% 9.9% 6.9%– 9.9% 100.0% 7– 11
363
+ PVDA 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 2.7%– 4.7% 0– 2
364
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
365
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.9% 44.9% 44.1%– 49.6% 0.0% 56– 66 5.2%
366
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.4% 46.4% 42.7%– 48.8% 0.4% 57– 66 9.6%
367
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.7% 60.7% 57.5%– 61.1% 100.0% 76– 81 100.0%
368
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 58.7% 60.6% 58.7%– 62.5% 100.0% 77– 82 100.0%
369
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 31.0%– 36.3% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
370
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 47.9% 45.1%– 51.7% 5.7% 57– 68 78.4%
371
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 33.6% 33.6% 31.8%– 37.7% 0.0% 40– 50 0.0%
372
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 39.7% 37.7%– 44.7% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
373
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 33.8% 36.8% 32.5%– 37.7% 0.0% 40– 49 0.0%
374
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 28.4% 24.7%– 32.7% 0.0% 32– 42 0.0%
375
+ 2016-03-25 08:58:03 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.97%.
376
+ 2016-03-25 08:58:03 INFO: 2,048 simulations out of 5,813 data points, 1 / 4,180,335,521,245 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
377
+ 2016-03-25 08:58:08 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
378
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
379
+ N-VA 27.3% 27.8% 25.4% 25.1%– 29.7% 100.0% 33– 39
380
+ CD&V 19.1% 20.1% 20.1% 17.3%– 21.6% 98.8% 21– 28
381
+ sp.a 14.7% 15.5% 16.8% 13.0%– 16.8% 66.2% 16– 23
382
+ Open Vld 14.1% 13.4% 13.4% 12.0%– 16.4% 99.3% 15– 22
383
+ Groen 11.6% 12.2% 12.2% 10.9%– 12.6% 99.2% 14– 17
384
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.2% 7.2% 6.6%– 9.9% 100.0% 7– 11
385
+ PVDA 4.0% 3.1% 4.0% 3.1%– 5.1% 0– 3
386
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
387
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.9% 49.0% 43.0%– 49.1% 0.0% 56– 63 29.9%
388
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.4% 45.5% 43.1%– 47.5% 0.1% 56– 63 4.4%
389
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.9% 59.0% 58.0%– 61.9% 100.0% 76– 81 100.0%
390
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 60.6% 62.3% 57.4%– 63.8% 100.0% 75– 82 100.0%
391
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.6% 33.5% 31.0%– 36.3% 0.0% 39– 47 0.0%
392
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 50.3% 46.2%– 50.3% 29.6% 59– 66 57.1%
393
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 36.9% 36.9% 31.7%– 36.9% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
394
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 42.4% 38.4%– 43.0% 0.0% 49– 56 0.0%
395
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 37.1% 32.7% 32.7%– 37.3% 0.0% 41– 48 0.0%
396
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 30.2% 27.8%– 30.5% 0.0% 35– 41 0.0%
397
+ 2016-03-25 08:58:08 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.61%.
398
+ 2016-03-25 08:58:08 INFO: 4,096 simulations out of 11,590 data points, 1 / 2,096,660,084,987 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
399
+ 2016-03-25 08:58:18 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
400
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
401
+ N-VA 27.3% 27.8% 25.4% 24.6%– 29.7% 100.0% 32– 40
402
+ CD&V 19.1% 20.1% 19.5% 16.6%– 21.8% 98.8% 20– 29
403
+ sp.a 14.7% 15.5% 14.2% 11.8%– 17.3% 64.8% 15– 23
404
+ Open Vld 14.1% 14.3% 14.3% 12.0%– 16.5% 98.8% 15– 22
405
+ Groen 11.6% 12.2% 12.2% 10.4%– 12.8% 99.3% 14– 17
406
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.2% 7.2% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
407
+ PVDA 4.0% 3.1% 4.0% 3.1%– 5.6% 0– 4
408
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
409
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.9% 49.0% 41.9%– 49.1% 0.1% 54– 64 22.6%
410
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.4% 45.5% 43.0%– 49.9% 0.6% 56– 66 13.1%
411
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 62.2% 59.0% 57.6%– 62.3% 100.0% 75– 83 100.0%
412
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 60.6% 60.6% 57.4%– 63.9% 100.0% 75– 85 100.0%
413
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 31.0%– 36.3% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
414
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 50.3% 44.3%– 50.9% 27.6% 57– 66 55.6%
415
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 36.9% 36.9% 29.8%– 37.1% 0.0% 37– 48 0.0%
416
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 42.4% 36.9%– 44.1% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
417
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 37.1% 32.7% 32.4%– 38.3% 0.0% 40– 49 0.0%
418
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 30.2% 26.3%– 32.4% 0.0% 34– 43 0.0%
419
+ 2016-03-25 08:58:18 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.38%.
420
+ 2016-03-25 08:58:18 INFO: 8,192 simulations out of 23,308 data points, 1 / 1,042,572,952,849 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
421
+ 2016-03-25 08:58:44 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
422
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
423
+ N-VA 27.3% 27.3% 27.3% 24.5%– 30.7% 100.0% 32– 40
424
+ CD&V 19.1% 19.4% 19.4% 16.6%– 21.6% 99.3% 20– 29
425
+ sp.a 14.7% 14.9% 14.9% 12.0%– 17.3% 74.4% 15– 23
426
+ Open Vld 14.1% 13.9% 13.9% 11.8%– 16.4% 98.9% 14– 22
427
+ Groen 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%– 12.8% 99.6% 14– 17
428
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.3% 9.3% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
429
+ PVDA 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1%– 5.4% 0– 4
430
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
431
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 42.5% 44.9% 41.9%– 49.0% 0.0% 54– 65 11.5%
432
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 45.4% 46.7% 43.1%– 49.3% 0.6% 56– 66 17.3%
433
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 58.7% 60.6% 57.6%– 62.8% 100.0% 76– 83 100.0%
434
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 61.6% 61.6% 57.6%– 63.8% 100.0% 75– 85 100.0%
435
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.2% 33.3% 30.4%– 35.8% 0.0% 40– 47 0.0%
436
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 48.2% 44.6%– 50.9% 14.8% 57– 67 60.9%
437
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 36.9% 34.3% 30.5%– 37.6% 0.0% 39– 50 0.0%
438
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 39.3% 37.4%– 43.4% 0.0% 47– 58 0.0%
439
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 36.6% 36.6% 32.4%– 38.6% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
440
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 28.8% 26.3%– 32.4% 0.0% 33– 43 0.0%
441
+ 2016-03-25 08:58:44 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.06%.
442
+ 2016-03-25 08:58:44 INFO: 16,384 simulations out of 46,629 data points, 1 / 521,141,143,602 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
443
+ 2016-03-25 08:59:37 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
444
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
445
+ N-VA 27.3% 27.3% 27.3% 24.6%– 30.7% 100.0% 33– 40
446
+ CD&V 19.1% 19.1% 19.0% 16.9%– 21.3% 99.7% 21– 28
447
+ sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.5%– 16.8% 66.4% 15– 22
448
+ Open Vld 14.1% 14.7% 14.7% 12.1%– 16.3% 96.8% 15– 22
449
+ Groen 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 9.8%– 13.5% 99.7% 14– 17
450
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.6%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
451
+ PVDA 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 3.1%– 5.3% 0– 3
452
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
453
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 42.5% 45.0% 42.5%– 49.0% 0.0% 54– 63 5.1%
454
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.1% 46.4% 43.3%– 49.6% 0.6% 57– 65 13.4%
455
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 58.7% 61.1% 57.9%– 62.8% 100.0% 76– 83 100.0%
456
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 61.6% 61.8% 58.2%– 64.1% 100.0% 76– 84 100.0%
457
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 30.4%– 36.3% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
458
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 49.2% 45.2%– 50.9% 8.8% 58– 67 71.8%
459
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 34.5% 34.5% 30.7%– 36.9% 0.0% 39– 48 0.0%
460
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 40.6% 37.6%– 43.0% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
461
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 35.5% 35.2% 32.5%– 38.4% 0.0% 41– 48 0.0%
462
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 30.1% 30.1% 26.1%– 31.7% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
463
+ 2016-03-25 08:59:37 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.42%.
464
+ 2016-03-25 08:59:37 INFO: 32,768 simulations out of 93,214 data points, 1 / 260,693,569,475 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
465
+ 2016-03-25 09:01:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
466
+ Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
467
+ N-VA 27.3% 27.3% 27.3% 24.6%– 30.4% 100.0% 33– 40
468
+ CD&V 19.1% 19.1% 19.0% 16.6%– 21.3% 98.8% 21– 28
469
+ sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.3%– 17.1% 69.6% 15– 23
470
+ Open Vld 14.1% 14.7% 14.7% 12.0%– 16.2% 94.0% 15– 22
471
+ Groen 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 9.7%– 13.9% 99.5% 13– 17
472
+ Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.4%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
473
+ PVDA 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 2.9%– 5.3% 0– 3
474
+ Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
475
+ CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 46.6% 45.0% 42.5%– 49.0% 0.0% 54– 64 6.9%
476
+ CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.1% 46.4% 42.9%– 49.6% 0.8% 56– 66 12.9%
477
+ CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 59.0% 61.1% 57.4%– 63.1% 100.0% 75– 84 100.0%
478
+ CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 61.6% 61.8% 57.8%– 64.0% 100.0% 75– 84 100.0%
479
+ CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 30.4%– 36.4% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
480
+ CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 45.6% 49.2% 44.5%– 51.2% 9.9% 58– 67 57.6%
481
+ CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 34.5% 34.5% 30.3%– 37.4% 0.0% 39– 48 0.0%
482
+ Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 40.6% 37.6%– 43.7% 0.0% 48– 58 0.0%
483
+ N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 35.5% 35.2% 32.5%– 38.4% 0.0% 41– 48 0.0%
484
+ Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 30.1% 30.1% 26.2%– 32.0% 0.0% 33– 43 0.0%
485
+ 2016-03-25 09:01:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.78%.
486
+ 2016-03-25 09:01:20 INFO: 65,536 simulations out of 187,092 data points, 1 / 129,884,176,688 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
data/Example-Greece.md ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
1
+ Example: Greece
2
+ ===============
3
+
4
+ The following file is a valid poll file for a Greek poll. It is based on
5
+ the results of a poll done from 31 August–1 September 2015 by Pulse RC for
6
+ Action24.
7
+
8
+ Area=GR
9
+ ==
10
+ Junts pel Sí=262
11
+ Catalunya Sí que es Pot=164
12
+ Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía=131
13
+ Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya=74
14
+ Partit Popular de Catalunya=74
15
+ Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres=66
16
+ Unió Democràtica de Catalunya=33
17
+ Other=16
18
+
19
+ The following call will use the poll file to run an analysis.
20
+
21
+ sapor analyze PulceRC-Action24-20150901.poll
22
+
23
+ For this file, the log will look like below.
24
+
25
+ 2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Analyzing as a set of dichotomies...