sapor 0.1b1 → 0.2a1

data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017_to_psv.rb

@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+# encoding: utf-8
+#
+# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
+# Copyright (C) 2016 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+#
+# This file is part of SAPoR.
+#
+# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the
+# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software
+# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later
+# version.
+#
+# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY
+# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR
+# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the GNU General Public License for more details.
+#
+# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in /doc/gpl.txt
+#
+
+SOURCE = 'united_kingdom_2017.txt'.freeze
+TARGET = '../../lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608.psv'.freeze
+
+File.open(TARGET, 'w') do |output|
+  output.puts '# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)'
+  output.puts '# Copyright (C) 2016 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# This file is part of SAPoR.'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or' \
+              ' modify it under the'
+  output.puts '# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the' \
+              ' Free Software'
+  output.puts '# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your' \
+              ' option) any later'
+  output.puts '# version.'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but' \
+              ' WITHOUT ANY'
+  output.puts '# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of' \
+              ' MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR'
+  output.puts '# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the GNU General Public License' \
+              ' for more details.'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in' \
+              ' /doc/gpl.txt'
+  output.puts '#'
+  File.open(SOURCE).each do |line|
+    elements = line.chomp.split(';')
+    name = elements[0]
+    next if name == 'Name'
+    region = elements[2].to_i
+    output.puts ''
+    if region == 1
+      unless elements[5].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Ulster Unionist Party | #{elements[5]}"
+      end
+      unless elements[6].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Social Democratic & Labour Party | " \
+                    "#{elements[6]}"
+      end
+      unless elements[7].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Democratic Unionist Party | #{elements[7]}"
+      end
+    else
+      unless elements[5].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Conservative Party | #{elements[5]}"
+      end
+      unless elements[6].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Labour Party | #{elements[6]}"
+      end
+      unless elements[7].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Liberal Democrats | #{elements[7]}"
+      end
+    end
+    unless elements[8].to_i == 0
+      output.puts "#{name} | UK Independence Party | #{elements[8]}"
+    end
+    unless elements[9].to_i == 0
+      output.puts "#{name} | Green Party | #{elements[9]}"
+    end
+    if region == 2
+      unless elements[10].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Scottish National Party | #{elements[10]}"
+      end
+    elsif region == 1
+      unless elements[10].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Sinn Féin | #{elements[10]}"
+      end
+    elsif region == 6
+      unless elements[10].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Plaid Cymru | #{elements[10]}"
+      end
+    elsif elements[10].to_i > 0
+      puts "Check out #{name}!"
+    end
+    unless elements[11].to_i == 0
+      output.puts "#{name} | Small or local party, or independent candidate " \
+                  "| #{elements[11]}"
+    end
+    unless elements[12].to_i == 0
+      output.puts "#{name} | All other candidates | #{elements[12]}"
+    end
+  end
+end

data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017_to_psv_with_brexit_and_chuk.rb

@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+# encoding: utf-8
+#
+# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
+# Copyright (C) 2016 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+#
+# This file is part of SAPoR.
+#
+# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the
+# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software
+# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later
+# version.
+#
+# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY
+# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR
+# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the GNU General Public License for more details.
+#
+# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in /doc/gpl.txt
+#
+
+SOURCE = 'united_kingdom_2017.txt'.freeze
+TARGET = '../../lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608-brexit-chuk.psv'.freeze
+
+File.open(TARGET, 'w') do |output|
+  output.puts '# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)'
+  output.puts '# Copyright (C) 2016 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# This file is part of SAPoR.'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or' \
+              ' modify it under the'
+  output.puts '# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the' \
+              ' Free Software'
+  output.puts '# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your' \
+              ' option) any later'
+  output.puts '# version.'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but' \
+              ' WITHOUT ANY'
+  output.puts '# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of' \
+              ' MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR'
+  output.puts '# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the GNU General Public License' \
+              ' for more details.'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in' \
+              ' /doc/gpl.txt'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# Changes:'
+  output.puts '# Added Change UK as a combination of Conservative Party (3/318) and Labour Party (8/262)'
+  output.puts '# Added Brexit Party as a copy of UK Independence Party'
+  output.puts '#'
+  File.open(SOURCE).each do |line|
+    elements = line.chomp.split(';')
+    name = elements[0]
+    next if name == 'Name'
+    region = elements[2].to_i
+    output.puts ''
+    if region == 1
+      unless elements[5].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Ulster Unionist Party | #{elements[5]}"
+      end
+      unless elements[6].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Social Democratic & Labour Party | " \
+                    "#{elements[6]}"
+      end
+      unless elements[7].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Democratic Unionist Party | #{elements[7]}"
+      end
+    else
+      unless elements[5].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Conservative Party | #{elements[5]}"
+      end
+      unless elements[6].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Labour Party | #{elements[6]}"
+      end
+      unless elements[7].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Liberal Democrats | #{elements[7]}"
+      end
+      tig = elements[5].to_i * 3 / 318 + elements[6].to_i * 8 / 262
+      unless tig == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Change UK | #{tig}"
+      end      
+    end
+    unless elements[8].to_i == 0
+      output.puts "#{name} | UK Independence Party | #{elements[8]}"
+      output.puts "#{name} | Brexit Party | #{elements[8]}"
+    end
+    unless elements[9].to_i == 0
+      output.puts "#{name} | Green Party | #{elements[9]}"
+    end
+    if region == 2
+      unless elements[10].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Scottish National Party | #{elements[10]}"
+      end
+    elsif region == 1
+      unless elements[10].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Sinn Féin | #{elements[10]}"
+      end
+    elsif region == 6
+      unless elements[10].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Plaid Cymru | #{elements[10]}"
+      end
+    elsif elements[10].to_i > 0
+      puts "Check out #{name}!"
+    end
+    unless elements[11].to_i == 0
+      output.puts "#{name} | Small or local party, or independent candidate " \
+                  "| #{elements[11]}"
+    end
+    unless elements[12].to_i == 0
+      output.puts "#{name} | All other candidates | #{elements[12]}"
+    end
+  end
+end

data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017_to_psv_with_tig.rb

@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
+# encoding: utf-8
+#
+# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
+# Copyright (C) 2016 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+#
+# This file is part of SAPoR.
+#
+# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the
+# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software
+# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later
+# version.
+#
+# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY
+# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR
+# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the GNU General Public License for more details.
+#
+# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in /doc/gpl.txt
+#
+
+SOURCE = 'united_kingdom_2017.txt'.freeze
+TARGET = '../../lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608-tig.psv'.freeze
+
+File.open(TARGET, 'w') do |output|
+  output.puts '# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)'
+  output.puts '# Copyright (C) 2016 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# This file is part of SAPoR.'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or' \
+              ' modify it under the'
+  output.puts '# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the' \
+              ' Free Software'
+  output.puts '# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your' \
+              ' option) any later'
+  output.puts '# version.'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but' \
+              ' WITHOUT ANY'
+  output.puts '# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of' \
+              ' MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR'
+  output.puts '# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the GNU General Public License' \
+              ' for more details.'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in' \
+              ' /doc/gpl.txt'
+  output.puts '#'
+  output.puts '# Changes:'
+  output.puts '# Added The Independent Group as a combination of Conservative Party (3/318) and Labour Party (8/262)'
+  output.puts '#'
+  File.open(SOURCE).each do |line|
+    elements = line.chomp.split(';')
+    name = elements[0]
+    next if name == 'Name'
+    region = elements[2].to_i
+    output.puts ''
+    if region == 1
+      unless elements[5].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Ulster Unionist Party | #{elements[5]}"
+      end
+      unless elements[6].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Social Democratic & Labour Party | " \
+                    "#{elements[6]}"
+      end
+      unless elements[7].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Democratic Unionist Party | #{elements[7]}"
+      end
+    else
+      unless elements[5].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Conservative Party | #{elements[5]}"
+      end
+      unless elements[6].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Labour Party | #{elements[6]}"
+      end
+      unless elements[7].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Liberal Democrats | #{elements[7]}"
+      end
+      tig = elements[5].to_i * 3 / 318 + elements[6].to_i * 8 / 262
+      unless tig == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | The Independent Group | #{tig}"
+      end      
+    end
+    unless elements[8].to_i == 0
+      output.puts "#{name} | UK Independence Party | #{elements[8]}"
+    end
+    unless elements[9].to_i == 0
+      output.puts "#{name} | Green Party | #{elements[9]}"
+    end
+    if region == 2
+      unless elements[10].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Scottish National Party | #{elements[10]}"
+      end
+    elsif region == 1
+      unless elements[10].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Sinn Féin | #{elements[10]}"
+      end
+    elsif region == 6
+      unless elements[10].to_i == 0
+        output.puts "#{name} | Plaid Cymru | #{elements[10]}"
+      end
+    elsif elements[10].to_i > 0
+      puts "Check out #{name}!"
+    end
+    unless elements[11].to_i == 0
+      output.puts "#{name} | Small or local party, or independent candidate " \
+                  "| #{elements[11]}"
+    end
+    unless elements[12].to_i == 0
+      output.puts "#{name} | All other candidates | #{elements[12]}"
+    end
+  end
+end

data/lib/sapor/binomials_cache.rb

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 # encoding: utf-8
 #
 # Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
-# Copyright (C) 2014 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+# Copyright (C) 2016 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
 #
 # This file is part of SAPoR.
 #

data/lib/sapor/combinations_distribution.rb

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 # encoding: utf-8
 #
 # Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
-# Copyright (C) 2014 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+# Copyright (C) 2016 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
 #
 # This file is part of SAPoR.
 #
@@ -52,6 +52,26 @@ module Sapor
       @distribution.empty?
     end
 
+    def interval_probabilities(intervals, population_size)
+      value_interval_probabilities(intervals.map {|interval| [interval.first * population_size, interval.last * population_size]})
+    end
+    
+    def value_interval_probabilities(value_intervals)
+      total = @distribution.values.inject(:+)
+      value_intervals.map do | value_interval |
+        distribution_in_interval = @distribution.select do |k, _|
+          k >= value_interval.first && k < value_interval.last
+        end
+        if distribution_in_interval.empty?
+          0
+        else
+          in_interval = distribution_in_interval.values.inject(:+)
+          probability = in_interval / total
+          probability.mantissa * (10**probability.exponent)
+        end
+      end
+    end
+
     def value_threshold_probability(threshold_value)
       total = @distribution.values.inject(:+)
       distribution_over_threshold = @distribution.select do |k, _|
@@ -66,6 +86,28 @@ module Sapor
       end
     end
 
+    def probabilities(values)
+      total = @distribution.values.inject(:+)
+      values.map do | value |
+        if @distribution.key?(value)
+          probability = @distribution[value] / total
+          probability.mantissa * (10**probability.exponent)
+        else
+          0
+        end
+      end
+    end
+
+    def probability(value)
+      if @distribution.key?(value)
+        total = @distribution.values.inject(:+)
+        probability = @distribution[value] / total
+        probability.mantissa * (10**probability.exponent)
+      else
+        0
+      end
+    end
+
     def threshold_probability(threshold, population_size)
       value_threshold_probability(population_size * threshold)
     end

data/lib/sapor/denominators.rb

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+#
+# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
+# Copyright (C) 2016 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+#
+# This file is part of SAPoR.
+#
+# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the
+# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software
+# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later
+# version.
+#
+# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY
+# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR
+# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the GNU General Public License for more details.
+#
+# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in /doc/gpl.txt
+#
+
+module Sapor
+  #
+  # Class building the denominators for D'Hondt.
+  #
+  class DhondtDenominators
+    def self.get(size)
+      Range.new(1, size)
+    end
+  end
+
+  #
+  # Class building the denominators for modified D'Hondt raising the
+  # denominators to the power 0.9.
+  #
+  class Dhondt09Denominators
+    def self.get(size)
+      Range.new(1, size).map { |a| a**0.9 }
+    end
+  end
+
+  #
+  # Class building the denominators for Sainte-Lague.
+  #
+  class SainteLagueDenominators
+    def self.get(size)
+      Range.new(1, size).map { |a| a * 2 - 1 }
+    end
+  end
+
+  #
+  # Class building the denominators for the modified Sainte-Lague starting with
+  # 1.2.
+  #
+  class SainteLague12Denominators
+    def self.get(size)
+      Range.new(1, size).map { |a| a.equal?(1) ? 1.2 : a * 2 - 1 }
+    end
+  end
+
+  #
+  # Class building the denominators for the modified Sainte-Lague starting with
+  # 1.4.
+  #
+  class SainteLague14Denominators
+    def self.get(size)
+      Range.new(1, size).map { |a| a.equal?(1) ? 1.4 : a * 2 - 1 }
+    end
+  end
+end

data/lib/sapor/dichotomies.rb

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 # encoding: utf-8
 #
 # Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
-# Copyright (C) 2014 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+# Copyright (C) 2016 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
 #
 # This file is part of SAPoR.
 #
@@ -65,6 +65,15 @@ module Sapor
       size = @dichotomy_hash.values.first.values.size
       "Number of data points: #{with_thousands_separator(size)}."
     end
+    
+    def size
+      @dichotomy_hash.values.first.values.size
+    end
+    
+    def write_outputs(filename)
+      write_confidence_intervals(filename)
+      write_probabilities(filename)
+    end
 
     private
 
@@ -94,5 +103,36 @@ module Sapor
         (@threshold.nil? ? '' : '  ' +
          six_char_percentage(dichotomy.threshold_probability(@threshold)))
     end
+    
+    def write_confidence_intervals(filename)
+      ci_filename = filename.gsub('.poll', '-dichotomies-confidence-intervals.psv')
+      File.open(ci_filename, 'w') do |file| 
+        file.puts('Choice | CI(80%) Bottom | CI(80%) Top | CI(90%) Bottom | CI(90%) Top | CI(95%) Bottom | CI(95%) Top | CI(99%) Bottom | CI(99%) Top') 
+        @dichotomy_hash.each_pair do | choice, dichotomy |
+          ci80 = dichotomy.confidence_interval(0.8)
+          ci90 = dichotomy.confidence_interval(0.9)
+          ci95 = dichotomy.confidence_interval(0.95)
+          ci99 = dichotomy.confidence_interval(0.99)
+          file.puts(choice + ' | ' + ci80.first.to_s + ' | ' + \
+                    ci80.last.to_s + ' | ' + ci90.first.to_s + ' | ' + \
+                    ci90.last.to_s + ' | ' + ci95.first.to_s + ' | ' + \
+                    ci95.last.to_s + ' | ' + ci99.first.to_s + ' | ' + \
+                    ci99.last.to_s)
+        end
+      end
+    end
+    
+    def write_probabilities(filename)
+      ci_filename = filename.gsub('.poll', '-dichotomies-probabilities.psv')
+      File.open(ci_filename, 'w') do |file|
+        intervals = Range.new(0, 1999).map{ | i | [i.to_f / 2000, (i + 1).to_f / 2000]}
+        file.puts('Choice | ' + intervals.map{|a| "#{sprintf('%.4f', a.first)}–#{sprintf('%.4f', a.last)}"}.join(' | '))
+        @dichotomy_hash.each_pair do | choice, dichotomy |
+          unless choice == OTHER
+            file.puts(choice + ' | ' + dichotomy.interval_probabilities(intervals).join(' | '))
+          end
+        end
+      end
+    end    
   end
 end

data/lib/sapor/dichotomy.rb

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 # encoding: utf-8
 #
 # Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
-# Copyright (C) 2014 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+# Copyright (C) 2016 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
 #
 # This file is part of SAPoR.
 #
@@ -22,6 +22,9 @@ module Sapor
   # Represents a dichotomy.
   #
   class Dichotomy
+    STANDARD_CONFIDENCE_LEVELS = [0.8, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99]
+    DEFAULT_CONFIDENCE_LEVEL = 0.95
+
     def initialize(number, sample_size, population_size)
       @number = number
       @sample_size = sample_size
@@ -29,23 +32,28 @@ module Sapor
       @distribution = CombinationsDistribution.new
       middle = @population_size / 2
       @distribution[middle] = combinations_for(middle)
+      @previous_distribution = @distribution.dup
     end
 
     def combinations(value)
       @distribution[value]
     end
 
-    def confidence_interval(level = 0.95)
+    def confidence_interval(level = DEFAULT_CONFIDENCE_LEVEL)
       value_confidence_interval(level).map { |x| x.to_f / @population_size }
     end
 
-    def confidence_interval_values(level = 0.95)
+    def confidence_interval_values(level = DEFAULT_CONFIDENCE_LEVEL)
       @distribution.confidence_interval_values(level)
     end
 
     def error_estimate
       estimate_error
     end
+    
+    def interval_probabilities(intervals)
+      @distribution.interval_probabilities(intervals, @population_size)
+    end
 
     def most_probable_fraction
       most_probable_value.to_f / @population_size
@@ -56,6 +64,7 @@ module Sapor
     end
 
     def refine
+      @previous_distribution = @distribution.dup
       new_values = find_refinement_values
       new_values.each do |value|
         @distribution[value] = combinations_for(value)
@@ -66,7 +75,7 @@ module Sapor
       @distribution.threshold_probability(threshold, @population_size)
     end
 
-    def value_confidence_interval(level = 0.95)
+    def value_confidence_interval(level = DEFAULT_CONFIDENCE_LEVEL)
       @distribution.confidence_interval(level, @population_size)
     end
 
@@ -127,11 +136,28 @@ module Sapor
         find_refinement_value_at_top
     end
 
+    def previous_confidence_interval(level)
+      @previous_distribution.confidence_interval(level, @population_size).map do |x|
+        x.to_f / @population_size
+      end
+    end
+
+    def previous_most_probable_fraction
+      @previous_distribution.most_probable_value.to_f / @population_size
+    end
+
     def estimate_error
       if @distribution.size == @population_size + 1
         0
       else
-        1.to_f / @distribution.size
+        ci_error_estimates = STANDARD_CONFIDENCE_LEVELS.map do |l|
+          ci = confidence_interval(l)
+          pci = previous_confidence_interval(l)
+          [(ci.first - pci.first).abs, (ci.last - pci.last).abs].max
+        end
+        [1.to_f / @distribution.size,
+         (most_probable_fraction - previous_most_probable_fraction).abs,
+         ci_error_estimates.max].max
       end
     end
   end

data/lib/sapor/first_past_the_post.rb

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 # encoding: utf-8
 #
 # Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
-# Copyright (C) 2014 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+# Copyright (C) 2016 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
 #
 # This file is part of SAPoR.
 #
@@ -33,7 +33,11 @@ module Sapor
       result = create_empty_result(simulation)
       @last_detailed_election_result.each_value do |local_last_result|
         winner = local_winner(local_last_result, multiplicators)
-        result[winner] += 1
+        if result.key?(winner)
+          result[winner] += 1
+        else
+          result[winner] = 1
+        end
       end
       result
     end