e11y 0.1.0

data/docs/00-ICP-AND-TIMELINE.md

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+# E11y - ICP Analysis & Project Timeline
+
+## 🎯 Ideal Customer Profile (ICP)
+
+### Primary Target: Ruby/Rails Development Teams
+
+#### Small Teams (5-20 engineers) - **Primary Focus**
+**Pain Points:**
+- No time/expertise for complex observability setup
+- Need production-ready solution out-of-the-box
+- Limited DevOps resources
+- Cost-sensitive (prefer OSS over expensive SaaS)
+
+**What They Need:**
+- ✅ Zero-config defaults that "just work"
+- ✅ Simple Rails integration (`rails g e11y:install`)
+- ✅ One gem replaces multiple tools (logs + metrics + traces)
+- ✅ Clear, actionable documentation
+- ✅ Predictable costs (no surprise bills)
+
+**Buying Signals:**
+- "How do we debug production issues?"
+- "Our logs are messy and hard to search"
+- "We can't afford Datadog but need observability"
+- "Rails.logger is not enough anymore"
+
+**Success Metrics:**
+- Time to first event: <15 minutes
+- P95 adoption (tracking >10 events): <1 hour
+- Production readiness: <1 day
+
+---
+
+#### Medium Teams (20-100 engineers) - **Secondary Focus**
+**Pain Points:**
+- Multiple services, inconsistent logging
+- Need standardization across teams
+- Existing tools (Sentry, ELK) but gaps in observability
+- High cardinality costs (Datadog, New Relic bills exploding)
+
+**What They Need:**
+- ✅ Pattern-based metrics (reduce boilerplate)
+- ✅ Cardinality protection (prevent cost explosions)
+- ✅ Multi-adapter support (integrate with existing stack)
+- ✅ Team-wide conventions (event schemas, PII filtering)
+- ✅ Self-monitoring (know when gem itself has issues)
+
+**Buying Signals:**
+- "Our observability costs are $10k/month and growing"
+- "Engineers log inconsistently across services"
+- "We need business metrics, not just tech metrics"
+- "High cardinality killed our Prometheus"
+
+**Success Metrics:**
+- Cost reduction: >50% (vs Datadog/New Relic)
+- Standardization: 80% of services use E11y
+- Developer satisfaction: NPS >40
+
+---
+
+#### Large Teams (100+ engineers) - **Future Focus (v2.0+)**
+**Pain Points:**
+- Enterprise compliance (GDPR, SOC2, HIPAA)
+- Complex multi-region deployments
+- Need for audit trails and governance
+- Advanced features (zero-code instrumentation, auto-discovery)
+
+**What They Need:**
+- ✅ Audit trails with cryptographic signing
+- ✅ Zero-code instrumentation (auto-detect Rails patterns)
+- ✅ Multi-tenancy support
+- ✅ Advanced sampling strategies (tail-based, content-based)
+- ✅ Enterprise support (SLA, training, consulting)
+
+**Not MVP** - these features are v2.0+ roadmap items.
+
+---
+
+## 📅 Project Timeline
+
+### Phase 0: Research & Planning ✅ COMPLETE
+**Duration:** 4 weeks (Dec 2024 - Jan 2025)
+**Status:** ✅ Done
+
+**Deliverables:**
+- ✅ Research findings (40+ sources analyzed)
+- ✅ Cardinality protection strategy
+- ✅ Rails-compatible PII filtering design
+- ✅ Consolidated specification (this document)
+
+---
+
+### Phase 1: MVP Core (Weeks 1-8)
+**Target:** March 2025
+**Goal:** Production-ready gem for small teams
+
+**Week 1-2: Foundation**
+- [ ] Gem structure & packaging
+- [ ] Event DSL (dry-struct integration)
+- [ ] Basic track() implementation
+- [ ] In-memory ring buffer (SPSC)
+- [ ] Severity filtering
+- [ ] Context enrichment (trace_id, user_id)
+
+**Week 3-4: Adapters**
+- [ ] Stdout adapter (development)
+- [ ] File adapter (simple production)
+- [ ] Loki adapter (recommended production)
+- [ ] Sentry adapter (errors only)
+- [ ] Adapter interface & multi-adapter fanout
+
+**Week 5-6: Safety Features**
+- [ ] PII filtering (Rails-compatible)
+- [ ] Rate limiting (global + per-event)
+- [ ] Circuit breaker (per-adapter)
+- [ ] Request-scoped debug buffering
+- [ ] Graceful degradation
+
+**Week 7-8: Polish & Release**
+- [ ] Rails generator (`rails g e11y:install`)
+- [ ] Documentation (Quick Start, API Reference)
+- [ ] Examples (sample Rails app)
+- [ ] Benchmarks (verify <1ms p99)
+- [ ] RubyGems publication
+- [ ] GitHub release (v0.9.0-beta)
+
+**Success Criteria:**
+- ✅ <1ms p99 track() latency
+- ✅ 10k+ events/sec throughput
+- ✅ <100MB memory @ 100k buffer
+- ✅ Zero production crashes (stress test)
+- ✅ Documentation complete (100% coverage)
+
+---
+
+### Phase 2: Yabeda Integration (Weeks 9-12)
+**Target:** April 2025
+**Goal:** Pattern-based metrics automation
+
+**Week 9-10: Pattern Engine**
+- [ ] Pattern matching (`*`, `order.*`, `*.paid`)
+- [ ] Label extraction from events
+- [ ] Counter metrics
+- [ ] Histogram metrics (with buckets)
+- [ ] Gauge metrics
+- [ ] Yabeda registration
+
+**Week 11-12: Cardinality Protection**
+- [ ] Forbidden labels (denylist)
+- [ ] Allowed labels (allowlist)
+- [ ] Per-metric cardinality limits
+- [ ] Overflow strategies (aggregate, drop, sample)
+- [ ] Self-monitoring metrics (cardinality tracking)
+- [ ] Runtime warnings (development mode)
+
+**Success Criteria:**
+- ✅ 99% cost reduction potential (vs naive implementation)
+- ✅ Zero high-cardinality explosions in tests
+- ✅ Clear developer warnings for bad labels
+
+---
+
+### Phase 3: SLO Tracking (Weeks 13-16)
+**Target:** May 2025
+**Goal:** Zero-config SLO monitoring
+
+**Week 13-14: Middleware**
+- [ ] Rack middleware (HTTP requests)
+- [ ] Sidekiq middleware (background jobs)
+- [ ] ActiveJob instrumentation
+- [ ] Path normalization (`/orders/123` → `/orders/:id`)
+- [ ] Controller#action extraction (Rails)
+
+**Week 15-16: SLO Calculations**
+- [ ] Availability metrics (success vs error)
+- [ ] Latency histograms (p50, p95, p99)
+- [ ] Error budget tracking (30-day rolling)
+- [ ] Burn rate calculation (multi-window)
+- [ ] Prometheus PromQL queries generator
+- [ ] Grafana dashboard generator
+
+**Success Criteria:**
+- ✅ One-line config: `config.slo_tracking = true`
+- ✅ Auto-generated dashboard works out-of-box
+- ✅ Burn rate alerts fire correctly
+
+---
+
+### Phase 4: OpenTelemetry Integration (Weeks 17-20)
+**Target:** June 2025
+**Goal:** Industry-standard compatibility
+
+**Week 17-18: OTel Core**
+- [ ] Semantic Conventions mapping
+- [ ] Resource attributes (service, env, version)
+- [ ] OTel Collector adapter (OTLP gRPC)
+- [ ] Trace context injection (W3C Trace Context)
+- [ ] Span events from business events
+
+**Week 19-20: OTel Logs Signal**
+- [ ] OpenTelemetry::SDK::Logs integration
+- [ ] Log-Trace correlation (auto-inject trace_id)
+- [ ] Severity mapping (E11y → OTel)
+- [ ] Batching (200ms / 8192 items - OTel standard)
+- [ ] Compression (gzip default)
+
+**Success Criteria:**
+- ✅ Works with any OTel-compatible backend (Jaeger, Tempo, Datadog)
+- ✅ One-click log-to-trace navigation in Grafana
+- ✅ Zero-config OTel Collector integration
+
+---
+
+### Phase 5: Production Hardening (Weeks 21-24)
+**Target:** July 2025
+**Goal:** v1.0 Release
+
+**Week 21-22: Advanced Features**
+- [ ] Adaptive sampling (dynamic rate adjustment)
+- [ ] Cost optimization (compression, payload minimization, smart routing)
+- [ ] Retention hints (per-event retention policies)
+- [ ] Compression benchmarks (verify 10x+ ratio)
+- [ ] Self-monitoring dashboard (monitor the gem itself)
+
+**Week 23-24: Release Preparation**
+- [ ] Security audit (PII filtering, injection prevention)
+- [ ] Performance benchmarks (publish results)
+- [ ] Migration guide (from Rails.logger, other gems)
+- [ ] Video tutorials (YouTube, Quick Start)
+- [ ] Blog posts (announcement, case studies)
+- [ ] RubyGems v1.0.0 release
+- [ ] HackerNews / Reddit launch
+
+**Success Criteria:**
+- ✅ Zero critical security vulnerabilities
+- ✅ 100% test coverage (unit + integration)
+- ✅ Load tested at 50k events/sec
+- ✅ Documentation reviewed by 5+ external users
+- ✅ 100+ GitHub stars in first week
+
+---
+
+## 🎯 Release Milestones
+
+### v0.9.0-beta (End of Phase 1) - March 2025
+**Focus:** Core functionality for early adopters
+
+**Features:**
+- ✅ Event DSL with dry-struct
+- ✅ Multiple adapters (Stdout, File, Loki, Sentry)
+- ✅ PII filtering (Rails-compatible)
+- ✅ Rate limiting
+- ✅ Request-scoped debug buffering
+- ✅ Rails generator
+
+**Target Audience:** Small teams willing to try beta
+
+---
+
+### v0.95.0-rc (End of Phase 4) - June 2025
+**Focus:** Feature-complete release candidate
+
+**New Features:**
+- ✅ Pattern-based metrics (Yabeda)
+- ✅ Cardinality protection
+- ✅ SLO tracking (zero-config)
+- ✅ OpenTelemetry integration
+
+**Target Audience:** Medium teams, production pilots
+
+---
+
+### v1.0.0 (End of Phase 5) - July 2025
+**Focus:** Production-grade, battle-tested
+
+**Polish:**
+- ✅ Security audit complete
+- ✅ Performance benchmarks published
+- ✅ Comprehensive documentation
+- ✅ Migration guides
+- ✅ Video tutorials
+- ✅ Blog posts & launch campaign
+
+**Target Audience:** All teams, recommended for production
+
+---
+
+## 📊 Success Metrics (Post-Launch)
+
+### Month 1 (July 2025)
+- RubyGems downloads: >1,000
+- GitHub stars: >200
+- Production deployments: >10 teams
+
+### Month 3 (September 2025)
+- RubyGems downloads: >5,000
+- GitHub stars: >500
+- Production deployments: >50 teams
+- Community contributions: >5 PRs merged
+
+### Month 6 (December 2025)
+- RubyGems downloads: >10,000
+- GitHub stars: >1,000
+- Production deployments: >200 teams
+- Ecosystem integrations: 3+ (AppSignal, Skylight, Scout APM)
+
+### Month 12 (June 2026)
+- RubyGems downloads: >50,000
+- GitHub stars: >2,000
+- Production deployments: >500 teams
+- Conference talks: 3+ (RailsConf, RubyKaigi, Brighton Ruby)
+
+---
+
+## 🚀 Growth Strategy
+
+### Phase 1: Early Adopters (Months 1-3)
+**Strategy:** Direct outreach + content marketing
+
+**Tactics:**
+- Personal emails to Ruby influencers (DHH, Eileen Uchitelle, Aaron Patterson)
+- Blog posts on Medium, Dev.to
+- Reddit posts (r/ruby, r/rails)
+- Twitter threads showcasing features
+- Conference talk proposals (RailsConf 2026)
+
+**Target:** 10-50 production deployments
+
+---
+
+### Phase 2: Community Growth (Months 4-6)
+**Strategy:** Developer evangelism + case studies
+
+**Tactics:**
+- Customer case studies (with metrics: cost savings, time saved)
+- YouTube video tutorials
+- Podcast appearances (Ruby Rogues, Remote Ruby)
+- Open source contributors program (bounties for features)
+- Integration partners (AppSignal, Skylight, Scout APM)
+
+**Target:** 50-200 production deployments
+
+---
+
+### Phase 3: Mainstream Adoption (Months 7-12)
+**Strategy:** Ecosystem integration + thought leadership
+
+**Tactics:**
+- Conference talks (RailsConf, RubyKaigi)
+- Official Rails guides integration (if accepted)
+- Partnerships with hosting providers (Heroku, Render, Fly.io)
+- Training courses (Gorails, Drifting Ruby)
+- Enterprise support offering (for large teams)
+
+**Target:** 200-500 production deployments
+
+---
+
+## 💰 Monetization Strategy (Future)
+
+### Free Tier (OSS)
+- ✅ Full gem functionality
+- ✅ Community support (GitHub Issues, Discord)
+- ✅ Documentation
+- ✅ Self-hosted
+
+**Target:** Small to medium teams
+
+---
+
+### Pro Tier (Paid) - v2.0+
+**Features:**
+- ✅ Zero-code instrumentation (auto-detect Rails patterns)
+- ✅ Advanced sampling (tail-based, content-based)
+- ✅ Audit trails with signing
+- ✅ Priority support (email, Slack)
+- ✅ Onboarding assistance
+
+**Pricing:** $99/month per team (up to 100 engineers)
+
+**Target:** Medium to large teams
+
+---
+
+### Enterprise Tier (Custom) - v2.0+
+**Features:**
+- ✅ All Pro features
+- ✅ SLA (99.9% uptime guarantee for support)
+- ✅ Custom integrations
+- ✅ Training & consulting
+- ✅ White-labeling
+- ✅ On-premises deployment support
+
+**Pricing:** Custom (starting at $1,000/month)
+
+**Target:** Large enterprises (100+ engineers)
+
+---
+
+## 🎯 Key Risks & Mitigations
+
+### Risk 1: Low Adoption
+**Probability:** Medium  
+**Impact:** High
+
+**Mitigation:**
+- Strong documentation from day 1
+- Video tutorials (visual learning)
+- Direct outreach to influencers
+- Case studies with metrics (prove value)
+
+---
+
+### Risk 2: Competition from Established Tools
+**Probability:** High  
+**Impact:** Medium
+
+**Competitors:**
+- OpenTelemetry Ruby (complexity barrier)
+- Sentry (expensive, limited to errors)
+- AppSignal (vendor lock-in, expensive)
+
+**Differentiation:**
+- ✅ Rails-first design (vs OTel's language-agnostic complexity)
+- ✅ Zero-config SLO tracking (unique feature)
+- ✅ Request-scoped debug buffering (unique feature)
+- ✅ Pattern-based metrics (less boilerplate)
+- ✅ Cost optimization built-in (vs expensive SaaS)
+
+---
+
+### Risk 3: Performance Issues in Production
+**Probability:** Low  
+**Impact:** Critical
+
+**Mitigation:**
+- Comprehensive benchmarks before v1.0
+- Load testing at 50k events/sec
+- Early adopter feedback (beta program)
+- Circuit breakers & graceful degradation
+- Self-monitoring (detect issues early)
+
+---
+
+### Risk 4: Insufficient Resources (Solo Developer)
+**Probability:** Medium  
+**Impact:** High
+
+**Mitigation:**
+- Clear MVP scope (focus on essential features)
+- Community contributions (open source advantage)
+- Phased releases (ship incrementally)
+- Time-boxed phases (don't over-engineer)
+
+---
+
+## 📈 Next Steps
+
+### Immediate (Next 2 Weeks)
+1. ✅ Finalize PRD/TRD documentation
+2. [ ] Set up GitHub repository (public)
+3. [ ] Create project board (GitHub Projects)
+4. [ ] Initialize gem skeleton
+5. [ ] Write first event DSL tests
+
+### Short-Term (Next 4 Weeks)
+6. [ ] Implement event DSL + track()
+7. [ ] Implement ring buffer
+8. [ ] Implement Stdout adapter
+9. [ ] Create sample Rails app (for testing)
+10. [ ] Write Quick Start guide
+
+### Mid-Term (Next 8 Weeks)
+11. [ ] Complete MVP (Phase 1)
+12. [ ] Beta release (v0.9.0-beta)
+13. [ ] Recruit 5-10 beta testers
+14. [ ] Gather feedback & iterate
+
+---
+
+**Document Version:** 1.0  
+**Last Updated:** January 12, 2026  
+**Status:** ✅ Complete