charles 0.0.1

data/test/articles/20120528_1126_blogs.adobe.com.content.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+Most marketing people have only a passing interaction with statistics, and often times only understand it as a measure of how it has impacted their daily life. One of the funny things people don�t realize is that there are two completely different competing schools of thought when it comes to statistics. Most people are familiar with frequentist statistics, having dealt with things like normal distribution, bell curves, and established probabilities. The other school, Bayesian statistics, is a realm that fewer people are familiar with, but just as applicable. In fact, the move over the last few years is for more people to change from the frequentist model to Bayesian techniques.
+
+So what is Bayesian statistics? To put simply, Bayesian analysis is the use of conditional or evidential probabilities. It looks at what you know of the environment and past knowledge, and allows you to infer probabilities based off of that data. It asks what is the likelihood of something happening based on our knowledge of past conditions and the context of them in the world. Where frequintist statistics can be viewed as much more of a evaluation of the larger data collection and judging the chances of something happening again based off of those results, Baysian is about the likelihood a set of results reflects the larger reality and about making inference based on the limited data set.
+
+Whereas a frequentist model looks at an absolute basis for chances, something like the population of females is 52%, so that means that if I select someone at random from my office, I have a 52% chance of picking a female. The chances are purely based on the total probability. The Bayesian approach is to rely on past knowledge and then adjust accordingly. If I know that 75% of my office is male, and I grab a person, then I know that I have a 25% chance of picking a female.
+
+So is it 52% or 25%? Both are correct answers depending on what question you are really asking, but both look at things differently. Frequentists look at the larger perspective of all chances, and base things off that ideal look at the world. Bayesian users use much more personal or past knowledge to infer information. Bayesian thinkers would much rather answer what are the chances that the total population is 52% female based on the fact that only 25% are female in this office. The risk with using Bayesian logic is that you are allowing for bias and poor data collection to dramatically later how you view things. The gain is that while frequentist will often be right in a controlled setting and over time, Bayesian has the chance to give you better information based on what you know. Bayesian logic also allows you to do conditional logic statements, like based on the office scenario before and a little bit more contextual knowledge, you can answer �what is the likelihood that if you choose a women that she would have blond hair?�. Bayesian techniques are often used for logic reasons, because it allows you to make a conclusion about the likelihood something is the best answer based on what you know. Both techniques are at risk for black swan type of analysis, though Bayesian analysis can be even more influenced by only focusing on the known.
+
+So why is this important? All testing tools and models are almost always relying on frequentist techniques to give you the global view of something as to how often it fits into a pattern. This is why you see things like 92% confidence when evaluating things, we know that under similar circumstances, 92% of the sample means will fit into that window. Those techniques give you answers in an ideal situation and over time, but that may not be true of specific periods or non normal events. They don�t take into account the context of this specific situation, nor prior history relevant specifically to the situation. They often times don�t take into account even the contextual knowledge of the other recipes and information contained in that same test. They might be true of normal circumstances, but not of a special sale or seasonal activity. Bayesian techniques rely on prior knowledge that for testing is rarely available, and for analytics is problematic at best. They might reflect special circumstances, but not give a good long term view due to those same mitigating circumstances.
+
+In all cases, nothing will replace understanding the context of what your data tells you, the patterns of it, and knowing how and when to act. You have to appreciate what the statistics are telling you, but also appreciate what they aren�t telling you. Any overt belief in a measure, by itself is always going to be problematic. Just getting a statistical answer is not a replacement for the context and the environment by which you are gathering data, nor making a decision. You can not have blind faith in stats to replace your own ability to reason, nor can you you blindly believe that all laboratory statistics properly reflect real world situations.
+
+No matter what techniques you use, no matter which camp you are in for the correct way to look at things, there is never a time when you can ignore the problems of any single type of analysis. You can not replace using discipline and logic in your actions. Statistics are just a tool, they can not replace proper reasoning, yet too many people look at it as a magical panacea to remove responsibility for action. Always remember that there are multiple ways to look at a problem, let alone hundreds of ways to solve it. Figuring out the efficient and best way for you is the real key.

data/test/articles/20120528_1126_blogs.adobe.com.html

@@ -0,0 +1,303 @@
+<!DOCTYPE html>
+<html dir="ltr" lang="en-US" xmlns:fb="http://www.facebook.com/2008/fbml" xmlns:addthis="http://www.addthis.com/help/api-spec" >
+<head>
+
+<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" />
+<title>Understand the Math Behind it All:  Bayesian Statistics | Adobe Digital Marketing Blog</title>
+<link rel="profile" href="http://gmpg.org/xfn/11" />
+<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" /><script type="text/javascript" src="http://use.typekit.com/oet7obn.js"></script>
+<script type="text/javascript">try{Typekit.load();}catch(e){}</script><link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Adobe Digital Marketing Blog &raquo; Feed" href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/feed/" />
+<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Adobe Digital Marketing Blog &raquo; Comments Feed" href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/comments/feed/" />
+<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Adobe Digital Marketing Blog &raquo; Understand the Math Behind it All:  Bayesian Statistics Comments Feed" href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/personalization/conversion-optimization/understand-the-math-behind-it-all-bayesian-statistics/feed/" />
+<link rel='stylesheet' id='wpdev_mp-jquery-ui-css'  href='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/plugins/microstock-photo-plugin/css/jquery-ui.css?ver=wpdev_mp' type='text/css' media='screen' />
+<link rel='stylesheet' id='farbtastic-css'  href='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-admin/css/farbtastic.css?ver=1.3u1' type='text/css' media='all' />
+<link rel='stylesheet' id='nrelate-style-common-0-05-1-css'  href='http://static.nrelate.com/common_wp/0.05.1/nrelate-panels-common.min.css' type='text/css' media='all' />
+<link rel='stylesheet' id='pagelines-objects-css'  href='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/themes/pagelines/css/objects.css?ver=213-030204103' type='text/css' media='all' />
+<link rel='stylesheet' id='pagelines-framework-css'  href='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/themes/pagelines/style.css?ver=213-030204103' type='text/css' media='all' />
+<!--[if IE 6]>
+<link rel='stylesheet' id='nrelate-ie6-0-05-1-css'  href='http://static.nrelate.com/common_wp/0.05.1/ie6-panels.min.css' type='text/css' media='all' />
+<![endif]-->
+<link rel='stylesheet' id='nrelate-style-huf-0-05-1-css'  href='http://static.nrelate.com/common_wp/0.05.1/nrelate-panels-huf.min.css' type='text/css' media='all' />
+<link rel='stylesheet' id='nrelate-style-flyout-centered-0-05-1-css'  href='http://static.nrelate.com/common_wp/0.05.1/nrelate-flyout-centered.min.css' type='text/css' media='all' />
+<link rel='stylesheet' id='simplr-forms-style-css'  href='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/plugins/simplr-registration-form/simplr_reg.css?ver=3.3.1' type='text/css' media='all' />
+<link rel='stylesheet' id='wp-pagenavi-css'  href='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/plugins/wp-pagenavi/pagenavi-css.css?ver=2.70' type='text/css' media='all' />
+<link rel='stylesheet' id='superfish-css'  href='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/themes/pagelines/sections/nav/style.superfish.css?ver=2.1.3' type='text/css' media='screen' />
+<link rel='stylesheet' id='pagelines-stylesheet-css'  href='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/themes/pagelines-template-theme/style.css?ver=213-0406235151' type='text/css' media='all' />
+
+<style type="text/css" id="dynamic-css">
+ .thead, h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6, .site-title{font-family:Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif;}body, .font1, .font-primary, .commentlist{font-family:Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif;}.font-sub, ul.main-nav, #secondnav, .metabar, .subtext, .subhead, .widget-title, .reply a, .editpage, #page .wp-pagenavi, .post-edit-link, #wp-calendar caption, #wp-calendar thead th, .soapbox-links a, .fancybox, .standard-form .admin-links, .pagelines-blink, .ftitle small{font-family:Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif;text-transform:capitalize;}input[type="text"], input[type="password"], textarea, #dsq-content textarea{font-family:Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif;}body.fixed_width #page,body.fixed_width #footer,body.canvas .page-canvas{ max-width:960px; }#site .content,#footer .content{ width: 100%; max-width:960px;}.one-sidebar-right  #pagelines_content #column-main{ width:100%; }.one-sidebar-right  #pagelines_content #sidebar1{ width:100%; }.one-sidebar-right  #pagelines_content #sidebar2{ width:0%; }.one-sidebar-right  #pagelines_content #column-wrap{ width:66.6666666667%; }.one-sidebar-right  #pagelines_content #sidebar-wrap{ width:33.3333333333%; }body, body.fixed_width{background-color:#FFFFFF;}body #page{background-color:#FFFFFF;}.commentlist ul.children .even{background-color:#FCFCFC;} 
+</style>
+<script type='text/javascript' src='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-includes/js/jquery/jquery.js?ver=1.7.1'></script>
+<script type='text/javascript' src='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/plugins/nrelate-flyout/admin/common_frontend.min.js'></script>
+<script type='text/javascript' src='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/themes/pagelines/js/script.blocks.js?ver=3.3.1'></script>
+<script type='text/javascript' src='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-includes/js/comment-reply.js?ver=20090102'></script>
+<link rel="EditURI" type="application/rsd+xml" title="RSD" href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/xmlrpc.php?rsd" />
+<link rel="wlwmanifest" type="application/wlwmanifest+xml" href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-includes/wlwmanifest.xml" /> 
+<link rel='prev' title='Adobe Digital Marketing Conversion All-Star: Adam Crutchfield of Axcess Financial' href='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/personalization/conversion-optimization/adobe-digital-marketing-conversion-all-star-adam-crutchfield-of-axcess-financial/' />
+<link rel='next' title='Avoid Local Maximums: Test For Best, Not Better' href='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/industries/media-and-entertainment/avoid-local-maximums-test-for-best-not-better/' />
+<meta name="generator" content="WordPress 3.3.1" />
+<link rel='canonical' href='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/personalization/conversion-optimization/understand-the-math-behind-it-all-bayesian-statistics/' />
+<link rel='shortlink' href='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/?p=5854' />
+<meta name="framework" content="Alkivia Framework 0.8" />
+<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/plugins/getsocial/lib/getsocialstyles.php?color=fff&border=fff&w=73&strip=hide&prehide=yes&rc=yes&stralign=left" />
+<style type="text/css">
+    .wp-caption-dd {
+        margin:5px;
+        text-align:center;
+    }
+</style> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/plugins/most-shared-posts/most-shared-posts.css">		
+<script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ jQuery(document).ready(function() {  jQuery('div.main_nav_container ul.sf-menu').superfish({ delay: 100, speed: 'fast', autoArrows:  1, dropShadows: 1 });  }); /* ]]> */ </script>			
+
+
+<style type="text/css" id="pagelines-less-css" >.main-nav .current-menu-ancestor a, .main-nav li.current-menu-ancestor ul a, .main-nav li.current_page_item a, .main-nav li.current-menu-item a, .main-nav li.current_page_parent a, .sf-menu li li, .sf-menu li li li { background:#f2f2f2; } .main-nav li a:hover, .main-nav .current-menu-ancestor .current_page_item a, .main-nav li.current-menu-ancestor ul a:hover { background:#f7f7f7; } ul.sf-menu ul li { border-bottom:1px solid #ffffff; } hr, .fpost, .clip_box, .widget-title, .metabar a, #morefoot .widget-title, #site #dsq-content h3, .navigation_wrap, .setup_area, .fpost .post-thumb img, .clip .clip-thumb img, .author-thumb img, ul.sf-menu ul li { border-color:#f2f2f2; } #page .wp-pagenavi a, #page .wp-pagenavi .current, #page .wp-pagenavi .extend, #page .wp-pagenavi span.pages, .pl-sharebar-text { color:rgba(51,51,51,0.3); } #wp-calendar thead th, #wp-calendar caption, #page .wp-pagenavi a { background-color:#f2f2f2; color:rgba(51,51,51,0.6); } .cnt-comments a, #wp-calendar caption, input, textarea, .searchform .searchfield, .wp-caption, .commentlist .alt, #wp-calendar #today, .post-nav, .current_posts_info, .success, .content-pagination a .cp-num, .hentry table .alternate td, .playpause, .main-nav li:hover, .main-nav .current-page-ancestor a, .main-nav li.current-page-ancestor ul a, .main-nav li.current_page_item a, .main-nav li.current-menu-item a, .sf-menu li li, .sf-menu li li li { background-color:#f2f2f2; } .post-nav a, .post-nav a:visited, .main_nav .current-menu-item a, .main_nav li a:hover, .main_nav li a:hover, textarea { color:rgba(51,51,51,0.7); } .cnt-comments a:hover, #wp-calendar thead th, .item-avatar a, .comment blockquote, #page .wp-pagenavi a:hover, #page .wp-pagenavi .extend, .content-pagination .cp-num, .content-pagination a:hover .cp-num, ins, .main-nav li a:hover, .main-nav .current-page-ancestor .current_page_item a, .main-nav li.current-page-ancestor ul a:hover { background-color:#f6f6f6; } .searchform .searchfield, blockquote, input, textarea, .wp-caption, #soapbox .fboxinfo { background-color:#f2f2f2; border:1px solid #dedede; } #page .wp-pagenavi .current, .alt #commentform textarea { color:rgba(51,51,51,0.8); background-color:#e5e5e5; } .searchform .searchfield:focus { background-color:#fafafa; } h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6, h1 a, h2 a, h3 a, h4 a, h5 a, h6 a, a.site-title, .entry-title a, .entry-title a:hover, .widget-title a:hover, h3.widget-title a:hover { color:#333333; } #page, #subnav ul li a:active, .commentlist cite a, .metabar a:hover, .post-nav a:hover, #site #dsq-content .dsq-request-user-info td a, #page .wp-pagenavi a:hover, #page .wp-pagenavi .current, .content-pagination a:hover .cp-num { color:#333333; } .cnt-comments a, .cnt-comments a:hover, .tcolor2, .lcolor2 a, .subhead, .widget-title, #branding .site-description, #callout, #commentform .required, #postauthor .subtext, .commentlist .comment-meta a, .content-pagination span, .content-pagination a .cp-num, .comment.alt .comment-author, .tcolor3, .lcolor3 a, .main_nav a, .widget-title a, h3.widget-title a, #subnav_row li a, .metabar em, .metabar a, .tags, #commentform label, .form-allowed-tags code, .rss-date, .comment.alt, .reply a, .auxilary a, .cform .emailreqtxt, .cform .reqtxt { color:rgba(51,51,51,0.6); } a, #subnav_row li.current_page_item a, #subnav_row li a:hover, .branding h1 a:hover { color:#0068a3; } a:hover, .commentlist cite a:hover, .headline h1 a:hover { color:rgba(0,104,163,0.8); } #footer, #footer li.link-list a, #footer .latest_posts li .list-excerpt, #footer .widget-title { color:rgba(133,133,133,0.6); } #footer a, #footer li h5 a { color:#858585; } .post-meta .c_img, #page .wp125_write_ads_widget .wp125ad a, .widget_flickrRSS a img, .srp-widget-thmblink { background:#e9e9e9; border:1px solid #f3f3f3; box-shadow:0 1px 2px rgba(0,0,0,0.4); } .post-meta .c_img img, #page .wp125_write_ads_widget .wp125ad a img { box-shadow:0 1px 2px #fdfdfd; } #page .wp125_write_ads_widget .wp125ad a:hover, .widget_flickrRSS a img:hover { background:#f3f3f3; } .widget div.srp-widget-singlepost { border-bottom:1px solid #f2f2f2; } .widget .srp-widget-date { color:rgba(51,51,51,0.6); } </style>
+<link type="text/css" rel="stylesheet" href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/plugins/popularpostsbars/style.css" />
+<link rel="stylesheet" href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/plugins/pagelines-customize/style.css?ver=213-0301230916" />
+<script src="http://platform.twitter.com/anywhere.js?id=BVgTlyykH9EYFpNOVxkRHw&v=1" type="text/javascript"></script>
+<script type="text/javascript">
+  twttr.anywhere(function (T) {
+    T.hovercards();
+  });
+</script>
+<style type="text/css" id="pagelines-custom">
+ body,.font1,.font-primary,.commentlist,input,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,.site-title,.font2,.font-sub,ul.main-nav li a,#secondnav li a,.metabar,.subtext,.subhead,.widget-title,.post-comments,.reply a,.editpage,#pagination .wp-pagenavi,.post-edit-link,#wp-calendar caption,#wp-calendar thead th,.soapbox-links a,.fancybox,.standard-form .admin-links,#featurenav a,.pagelines-blink,.ftitle small,.button,input[type="submit"],input[type="button"],input[type="reset"],.submit { font-family:"adobe-clean","myriad-pro-1","myriad-pro-2",sans-serif; } .tc2, .t2, .cnt-comments a, .cnt-comments a:hover, .tcolor2, .lcolor2 a, .subhead, .widget-title, #branding .site-description, #callout, #commentform .required, #postauthor .subtext, #page .wp-pagenavi span.pages, .commentlist .comment-meta a, .content-pagination span, .content-pagination a .cp-num, .comment.alt .comment-author, .tcolor3, .lcolor3 a, .main_nav a, .widget-title a, h3.widget-title a, #subnav_row li a, .metabar em, .metabar a, .tags, #commentform label, .form-allowed-tags code, .rss-date, .comment.alt, .reply a, .post-footer, .auxilary a, .cform .emailreqtxt, .cform .reqtxt, #page .wp-pagenavi a, #page .wp-pagenavi .current, #page .wp-pagenavi .extend { color: #333; } #postauthor .copy-pad { padding: 10px 0; } .author-thumb { margin-left: 0; } #postauthor .author-info { margin-left: 0; } .author-thumb img { margin: 80px 0 0 30px; float: right; } body ul#sharebarx li { margin-right: 0; } .navigation_wrap .main_nav { margin-right: 120px; } #branding .mainlogo-link, #branding .mainlogo-img { margin-left: 20px; } #footcols .content-pad { padding: 35px 15px 15px 15px; } .navigation_wrap .searchform { bottom: 7px; } #branding .content-pad { padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px; } #addthis_box{ position: absolute; left: -70px; border: 1px solid #B5076D; border-right: 0px; padding: 10px; background-color: #FFF; } #addthis_box div{ margin: 10px 0; } #social-widget-icons a { background: white url('http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/themes/pagelines-template-theme/images/socialicons32x32.png') center 4px no-repeat; width: 32px; height: 32px; display: block; } #social-widget-icons a:hover { opacity: .8; } #social-widget-icons div { display: inline-block; margin-right: 20px; width: 32px; height: 32px; margin-top: 20px; } #social-widget-icons { text-align: center; } #social-widget-icons-youtube a { background-position: 0 -384px; } #social-widget-icons-linkedin a { background-position: 0 -160px; } #social-widget-icons-stumbleupon a { background-position: 0 -256px; } #social-widget-icons-rss a { background-position: 0 -224px; } #social-widget-icons-emailsubscribe a { background-position: 0 0; } .searchform .searchfield { border: 1px solid #6C6C6E; } .searchform { width: 145px; } .searchform input.submit { right: 0px; top: 8px; } #header { background-color:; } div.inline-nav { background-color:none; } .post-meta .c_img { border: 0; } #footer,#footer li.link-list a,#footer .latest_posts li .list-excerpt { background-color:#E3E3E3; } #header { background-color: #333; } #header .adobe { background: #FF0000 url('http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/themes/pagelines-template-theme/images/adobe.png'); background-repeat: no-repeat; height: 68px; position: absolute; top: 0; text-indent: -9999px; cursor: pointer; width: 39px; left: 0; background-position: center bottom; } .subhead { margin-bottom:0; } #features .content-pad { padding:0; } body { padding-top:0; } .share-buttons-post { margin-left:-125px; position:absolute; top:350px; width:85px; } .share-buttons-post ul { padding:1em; margin:0; } .share-buttons-excerpt { float: right; } .share-buttons-excerpt ul { margin: 0; } .share-buttons-excerpt ul li{ display: inline; list-style: none; padding: 1em; margin: 0; } .metabar a { border-bottom:0; } #feature_slider .fcontent { min-width:50%; max-width:75%; min-height:140px; bottom:10%; position:absolute; max-height:210px; text-shadow:none; } #feature_slider .fcontent .dcol-pad { padding:35px; height:140px; } .fcontent .fheading { padding:0; margin-bottom:.5em; } .category #feature { display:none; } #feature { margin:0em; background-color:; } .fpost .post-title h2 { font-size:1.7em; font-weight:500; } .widget-title { font-size:1.4em; font-weight:500; } .category-title h1 { font-size: 3em; font-weight: 300; clear: both; padding: 15px 0; display: block; } .metabar em { font-size:12px; font-style:normal; line-height:3em; } .tags { font-style:normal; font-size:12px; } .fcontent .ftitle { font-weight: 300; } .navigation_wrap { border: none; } #nav { background:#424242 none; background:-webkit-gradient(linear,left top,left bottom,from(#505050),to(#343434)); background:-moz-linear-gradient(top,#505050,#343434); filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.gradient(startColorstr=#FF505050,endColorstr=#FF343434); -ms-filter:"progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.gradient(startColorstr=#FF505050,endColorstr=#FF343434)"; background:-ms-linear-gradient(top,#505050,#343434); background:-o-linear-gradient(top,#505050,#343434); -webkit-box-shadow:0 1px 2px rgba(0,0,0,.3); display:block; list-style:none; padding:0; height: 100%; } .navigation_wrap .main_nav { height: 45px; border-left: 1px solid black; } #feature_slider .fcontainer .fcontent h1, #feature_slider .fcontainer .fcontent h2, #feature_slider .fcontainer .fcontent h3, #feature_slider .fcontainer .fcontent h4, #feature_slider .fcontainer .fcontent h5 { color: white; text-shadow: none; } .categories.sc a { font-weight: 700; text-transform: uppercase; color: #0068A3; font-size: 1.2em; } .categories.sc a:hover { text-decoration: underline; } a.site-title { font-size:1.4em; font-weight:500; margin:8px 0 8px 0; color:#DDD; text-shadow:0 -1px 0 #151515; -moz-text-shadow:0 -1px 0 #151515; } ul.sf-menu li a { color: #DDD !important; display: block; height: 32px; padding:8px 10px 4px; } ul.sf-menu ul li a { padding: 5px 10px; height: 20px; line-height: 20px; display: block; } ul.sf-menu li { text-shadow:0 -1px 0 #151515; -moz-text-shadow:0 -1px 0 #151515; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:1px solid #4C4C4C; width: 110px; text-align: left; } ul.sub-menu { text-shadow: none; -moz-text-shadow: none; background-color: #353535 !important; } ul.sub-menu li a { text-shadow: none; -moz-text-shadow: none; } ul.sub-menu li { border: 0; } ul.sub-menu li:hover { background: #000 !important; text-shadow: none; -moz-text-shadow: none; } ul.sf-shadow ul.sub-menu, ul.sf-shadow ul.children { background-image: none; background-position: ; padding: 0; } .main-nav .current-menu-ancestor a, .main-nav li.current-menu-ancestor ul a, .main-nav li.current_page_item a, .main-nav li.current-menu-item a, .main-nav li.current_page_parent a, .sf-menu li li, .sf-menu li li li, ul.sf-menu li a:hover { background: transparent !important; } .main-nav li.current-menu-item a { background-color: transparent; } ul.sf-menu ul li { border-bottom: 0 !important; } .main_nav li a:hover, .main-nav li:hover { background:-webkit-gradient(linear,0 0,0 100%,from(#929292),to(#535353)); background:-moz-linear-gradient(top,#929292,#535353); text-shadow:0 -1px 0 #151515; -moz-text-shadow:0 -1px 0 #151515; } #nav .content-pad { padding: 0 0 0 45px; } ul.sf-menu ul.sub-menu, ul.sf-menu ul.children { margin-top: 12px; } #feature-footer.dots a { width: 22px; height: 7px; } #featurenav { text-align: ; right: 0; position: absolute; } #social-widget-facebook { overflow: hidden; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; border-bottom: 1px solid #EBEBEB; min-height: 80px; } #sidebar-wrap #social-widget-facebook { height: auto; } #social-widget-quora { overflow: hidden; margin-top: 5px; border-bottom: 1px solid #EBEBEB; padding: 15px 0 15px 0; } #social-widget-twitter { overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 20px; border-bottom: 1px solid #EBEBEB; } #secondnav ul li a { color: #A9A9A9; } #secondnav ul li a:hover { color: white; } #secondnav { background: black; } /* .sidebar_widgets .widget-pad { padding: 20px; background: #F0F0F0; } section.copy { margin: 1.3em 0 .6em 0; }*/ .nrelate .nr_title { font-size: 1.4em; font-weight: 500; margin-bottom: 10px; color: #333; } .nrelate_huf .nr_text { font-weight: 500; text-align: left; color: #333; padding-right: 10px; } .nrelate_huf.nr_80 .nr_img_div { width: 82px; height: 82px; margin: 0 10px 0 10px; } #feature_slider .fcontainer .fcontent h1, #feature_slider .fcontainer .fcontent h2, #feature_slider .fcontainer .fcontent h3, #feature_slider .fcontainer .fcontent h4, #feature_slider .fcontainer .fcontent h5 { font-size: 2.1em; font-weight: 300; } #feature_slider .text-right .fexcerpt, #feature_slider .text-left .fexcerpt { font-size: 1em; font-weight: 500; } #feature_slider .fcontent .plmore { background: none; padding: 0; margin: 0 5px; border: none; color: #FFF; } #feature_slider .fcontent .plmore:hover{ background: none; color: #FFF; } #content .author a:hover, #content .post-comments a:hover { text-decoration: underline; } } /*------------- New styles -----------*/ 
+</style>
+</head>
+<body class="single single-post postid-5854 single-format-standard custom responsive pagelines-template-theme single full_width ">
+<div id="site" class="one-sidebar-right">
+	<div id="page" class="thepage">
+		<div class="page-canvas">
+						<header id="header" class="container-group">
+				<div class="outline">
+					<section id="branding" class="container fix top-branding branding-nav"><div class="texture"><div class="content"><div class="content-pad">	<a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing" class="adobe">Adobe</a>
+	<div class="branding_wrap"><a class="mainlogo-link" href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing" title="Adobe Digital Marketing Blog"><img class="mainlogo-img" src="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/themes/pagelines-template-theme/images/logo.png" alt="Adobe Digital Marketing Blog" /></a><div class="icons" style="bottom: 0px; right: px;"></div></div>		
+			<script type="text/javascript"> 
+				jQuery('.icons a').hover(function(){ jQuery(this).fadeTo('fast', 1); },function(){ jQuery(this).fadeTo('fast', 0.5);});
+			</script>
+<div class="clear"></div></div></div></div></section><section id="nav" class="container fix branding-nav nav-content"><div class="texture"><div class="content"><div class="content-pad"><div class="navigation_wrap fix"><div class="main_nav_container "><nav id="nav_row" class="main_nav fix"><ul id="menu-channels" class="main-nav sf-menu"><li id="menu-item-5353" class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-5353"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/digital-marketing/">Digital Marketing</a>
+<ul class="sub-menu">
+	<li id="menu-item-5801" class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-5801"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/digital-marketing/mobile/">Mobile</a></li>
+	<li id="menu-item-5800" class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-5800"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/digital-marketing/social-media/">Social Media</a></li>
+	<li id="menu-item-5354" class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-5354"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/digital-marketing/digital-advertising/">Digital Advertising</a></li>
+	<li id="menu-item-5799" class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-5799"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/digital-marketing/search-engine-marketing/">Search Engine Marketing</a></li>
+</ul>
+</li>
+<li id="menu-item-5349" class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-5349"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/analytics/">Analytics</a></li>
+<li id="menu-item-5359" class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category current-post-ancestor menu-item-5359"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/personalization/">Personalization</a></li>
+<li id="menu-item-6825" class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-6825"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/industries/">Industries</a>
+<ul class="sub-menu">
+	<li id="menu-item-6826" class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-6826"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/industries/financial-services/">Financial Services</a></li>
+	<li id="menu-item-6828" class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-6828"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/industries/media-and-entertainment/">Media &amp; Entertainment</a></li>
+	<li id="menu-item-6878" class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-6878"><a title="Retail &amp; Travel" href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/industries/retail-travel/">Retail &amp; Travel</a></li>
+</ul>
+</li>
+<li id="menu-item-5802" class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-5802"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/executive-insights/">Executive Insights</a>
+<ul class="sub-menu">
+	<li id="menu-item-5371" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-5371"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/author/aseem-chandra/">Aseem Chandra</a></li>
+</ul>
+</li>
+</ul></nav></div><form method="get" class="searchform" onsubmit="this.submit();return false;" action="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/" ><fieldset><input type="text" value="" name="s" class="searchfield" placeholder="Search" /></fieldset></form></div><div class="clear"></div></div></div></div></section>				</div>
+			</header>
+						<div id="page-main" class="container-group">
+				<div id="dynamic-content" class="outline">		
+<section id="content" class="container fix nav-content content-footcols"><div class="texture"><div class="content"><div class="content-pad">		<div id="pagelines_content" class="one-sidebar-right fix">
+
+			
+	 				<div id="column-wrap" class="fix">
+
+								<div id="column-main" class="mcolumn fix">
+					<div class="mcolumn-pad" >
+						<section id="postnav" class="copy top-postnav postnav-postloop"><div class="copy-pad">		<div class="post-nav fix"> 
+			<span class="previous"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/personalization/conversion-optimization/adobe-digital-marketing-conversion-all-star-adam-crutchfield-of-axcess-financial/" rel="prev">Adobe Digital Marketing Conversion All-Star: Adam Crutchfield of Axcess Financial</a></span> 
+			<span class="next"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/industries/media-and-entertainment/avoid-local-maximums-test-for-best-not-better/" rel="next">Avoid Local Maximums: Test For Best, Not Better</a></span>
+		</div>
+<div class="clear"></div></div></section><section id="postloop" class="copy postnav-postloop postloop-comments"><div class="copy-pad"><article class="post-5854 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-conversion-optimization fpost post-number-1" id="post-5854"><div class="hentry-pad "><section class="post-meta fix post-nothumb "><section class="bd post-header fix " ><section class="bd post-title-section fix"><hgroup class="post-title fix"><h1 class="entry-title">Understand the Math Behind it All:  Bayesian Statistics</h1>
+</hgroup><div class="metabar"><div class="metabar-pad"><em><span class="categories sc"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/personalization/conversion-optimization/" title="View all posts in Conversion Optimization" rel="category tag">Conversion Optimization</a></span>  &middot; By <span class="author vcard sc"><span class="fn"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/author/andrew-anderson/" title="Posts by Andrew Anderson" rel="author">Andrew Anderson</a></span></span> On <time class="date time published updated sc" datetime="2012-05-21T10:30:58.000000+00:00">May 21, 2012</time>  &middot; <span class="post-comments sc"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/personalization/conversion-optimization/understand-the-math-behind-it-all-bayesian-statistics/#comments"><span class="dsq-postid" rel="5854 http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/?p=5854">Leave a Comment</span></a></span> </em></div></div></section> </section></section><div class="entry_wrap fix"><div class="entry_content">
+<!-- AddThis Button Begin -->
+<script type="text/javascript">var addthis_product = 'wpp-264';
+var addthis_config = {"data_track_clickback":false,"data_track_addressbar":false};if (typeof(addthis_share) == "undefined"){ addthis_share = {"templates":{"twitter":"{{title}} {{url}} via @AdobeDigMktg"},"url_transforms":{"shorten":{"twitter":"bitly"}},"shorteners":{"bitly":{"login":"chwarren","apiKey":"R_2dc512fa61026464ab346a879adf2a77"}}};}</script><script type="text/javascript" src="//s7.addthis.com/js/250/addthis_widget.js#pubid=ra-4f09a9be5db9675c"></script><div id="getsocialmain"><div id='nr_fo_top_of_post'></div><p>Most mar�ket�ing peo�ple have only a pass�ing inter�ac�tion with sta�tis�tics, and often times only under�stand it as a mea�sure of how it has impacted their daily life.  One of the funny things peo�ple don�t real�ize is that there are two com�pletely dif�fer�ent com�pet�ing schools of thought when it comes to sta�tis�tics.  Most peo�ple are famil�iar with fre�quen�tist sta�tis�tics, hav�ing dealt with things like nor�mal dis�tri�b�u�tion, bell curves, and estab�lished prob�a�bil�i�ties.  The other school, Bayesian sta�tis�tics, is a realm that fewer peo�ple are famil�iar with, but just as applic�a�ble.  In fact, the move over the last few years is for more peo�ple to change from the fre�quen�tist model to Bayesian techniques.</p>
+<p>So what is Bayesian sta�tis�tics?  To put sim�ply, Bayesian analy�sis is the use of con�di�tional or evi�den�tial prob�a�bil�i�ties.  It looks at what you know of the envi�ron�ment and past knowl�edge, and allows you to infer prob�a�bil�i�ties based off of that data.  It asks what is the like�li�hood of some�thing hap�pen�ing based on our knowl�edge of past con�di�tions and the con�text of them in the world.  Where fre�quin�tist sta�tis�tics can be viewed as much more of a eval�u�a�tion of the larger data col�lec�tion and judg�ing the chances of some�thing hap�pen�ing again based off of those results, Baysian is about the like�li�hood a set of results reflects the larger real�ity and about mak�ing infer�ence based on the lim�ited data set.</p>
+<p>Whereas a fre�quen�tist model looks at an absolute basis for chances, some�thing like the pop�u�la�tion of females is 52%, so that means that if I select some�one at ran�dom from my office, I have a 52% chance of pick�ing a female.  The chances are purely based on the total prob�a�bil�ity.  The Bayesian approach is to rely on past knowl�edge and then adjust accord�ingly.  If I know that 75% of my office is male, and I grab a per�son, then I know that I have a 25% chance of pick�ing a female.  </p>
+<p>So is it 52% or 25%?  Both are cor�rect answers depend�ing on what ques�tion you are really ask�ing, but both look at things dif�fer�ently.  Fre�quen�tists look at the larger per�spec�tive of all chances, and base things off that ideal look at the world.  Bayesian users use much more per�sonal or past knowl�edge to infer infor�ma�tion.   Bayesian thinkers would much rather answer what are the chances that the total pop�u�la�tion is 52% female based on the fact that only 25% are female in this office. The risk with using Bayesian logic is that you are allow�ing for bias and poor data col�lec�tion to dra�mat�i�cally later how you view things.  The gain is that while fre�quen�tist will often be right in a con�trolled set�ting and over time, Bayesian has the chance to give you bet�ter infor�ma�tion based on what you know.  Bayesian logic also allows you to do con�di�tional logic state�ments, like based on the office sce�nario before and a lit�tle bit more con�tex�tual knowl�edge, you can answer �what is the like�li�hood that if you choose a women that she would have blond hair?�.  Bayesian tech�niques are often used for logic rea�sons, because it allows you to make a con�clu�sion about the like�li�hood some�thing is the best answer based on what you know.  Both tech�niques are at risk for <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb/dp/1400063515">black swan</a> type of analy�sis, though Bayesian analy�sis can be even more influ�enced by only focus�ing on the known.</p>
+<p>So why is this impor�tant?  All test�ing tools and mod�els are almost always rely�ing on fre�quen�tist tech�niques to give you the global view of some�thing as to how often it fits into a pat�tern.  This is why you see things like 92% con�fi�dence when eval�u�at�ing things, we know that under sim�i�lar cir�cum�stances, 92% of the sam�ple means will fit into that win�dow.  Those tech�niques give you answers in an ideal sit�u�a�tion and over time, but that may not be true of spe�cific peri�ods or non nor�mal events.  They don�t take into account the con�text of this spe�cific sit�u�a�tion, nor prior his�tory rel�e�vant specif�i�cally to the sit�u�a�tion.  They often times don�t take into account even the con�tex�tual knowl�edge of the other recipes and infor�ma�tion con�tained in that same test.  They might be true of nor�mal cir�cum�stances, but not of a spe�cial sale or sea�sonal activ�ity. Bayesian tech�niques rely on prior knowl�edge that for test�ing is rarely avail�able, and for ana�lyt�ics is prob�lem�atic at best.  They might reflect spe�cial cir�cum�stances, but not give a good long term view due to those same mit�i�gat�ing circumstances. </p>
+<p>In all cases, noth�ing will replace under�stand�ing the con�text of what your data tells you, the pat�terns of it, and know�ing how and when to act.  You have to appre�ci�ate what the sta�tis�tics are telling you, but also appre�ci�ate what they aren�t telling you.  Any overt belief in a mea�sure, by itself is always going to be prob�lem�atic.  Just get�ting a sta�tis�ti�cal answer is not a replace�ment for the con�text and the envi�ron�ment by which you are gath�er�ing data, nor mak�ing a deci�sion. You can not have blind faith in stats to replace your own abil�ity to rea�son, nor can you you blindly believe that all lab�o�ra�tory sta�tis�tics prop�erly reflect real world situations.</p>
+<p>No mat�ter what tech�niques you use, no mat�ter which camp you are in for the cor�rect way to look at things, there is never a time when you can ignore the prob�lems of any sin�gle type of analy�sis.  You can not replace using dis�ci�pline and logic in your actions.  Sta�tis�tics are just a tool, they can not replace proper rea�son�ing, yet too many peo�ple look at it as a mag�i�cal panacea to remove respon�si�bil�ity for action.  Always remem�ber that there are mul�ti�ple ways to look at a prob�lem, let alone hun�dreds of ways to solve it.  Fig�ur�ing out the effi�cient and best way for you is the real key.</p>
+<div id='nr_fo_bot_of_post'></div> </div><!-- #getsocialmain --></div></div></div></article><div class="clear"></div></div></section><section id="wp-comments" class="copy postloop-comments comments-pagination"><div class="copy-pad">
+<div id="disqus_thread">
+    </div>
+
+<script type="text/javascript">
+/* <![CDATA[ */
+    var disqus_url = 'http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/personalization/conversion-optimization/understand-the-math-behind-it-all-bayesian-statistics/';
+    var disqus_identifier = '5854 http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/?p=5854';
+    var disqus_container_id = 'disqus_thread';
+    var disqus_domain = 'disqus.com';
+    var disqus_shortname = 'adobemindsonmarketing';
+    var disqus_title = "Understand the Math Behind it All:  Bayesian Statistics";
+        var disqus_config = function () {
+        var config = this; // Access to the config object
+
+        /*
+           All currently supported events:
+            * preData � fires just before we request for initial data
+            * preInit - fires after we get initial data but before we load any dependencies
+            * onInit  - fires when all dependencies are resolved but before dtpl template is rendered
+            * afterRender - fires when template is rendered but before we show it
+            * onReady - everything is done
+         */
+
+        config.callbacks.preData.push(function() {
+            // clear out the container (its filled for SEO/legacy purposes)
+            document.getElementById(disqus_container_id).innerHTML = '';
+        });
+                config.callbacks.onReady.push(function() {
+            // sync comments in the background so we don't block the page
+            DISQUS.request.get('?cf_action=sync_comments&post_id=5854');
+        });
+                    };
+    var facebookXdReceiverPath = 'http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/plugins/disqus-comment-system/xd_receiver.htm';
+/* ]]> */
+</script>
+
+<script type="text/javascript">
+/* <![CDATA[ */
+    var DsqLocal = {
+        'trackbacks': [
+        ],
+        'trackback_url': "http:\/\/blogs.adobe.com\/digitalmarketing\/personalization\/conversion-optimization\/understand-the-math-behind-it-all-bayesian-statistics\/trackback\/"    };
+/* ]]> */
+</script>
+
+<script type="text/javascript">
+/* <![CDATA[ */
+(function() {
+    var dsq = document.createElement('script'); dsq.type = 'text/javascript';
+    dsq.async = true;
+        dsq.src = 'http' + '://' + disqus_shortname + '.' + disqus_domain + '/embed.js?pname=wordpress&pver=2.72';
+    (document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(dsq);
+})();
+/* ]]> */
+</script>
+<div class="clear"></div></div></section>					</div>
+				</div>
+
+							</div>	
+			
+		<div id="sidebar-wrap">
+	<section id="sb_universal" class="copy top-sb_universal sb_universal-bottom"><div class="copy-pad"><ul id="list_sb_universal" class="sidebar_widgets fix"><li id="text-6" class="widget_text widget fix"><div class="widget-pad"><h3 class="widget-title">Follow Adobe Digital Marketing</h3>			<div class="textwidget"><div id="social-widget-facebook">
+<iframe src="//www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fadobedigitalmarketing&amp;send=false&amp;layout=standard&amp;width=320&amp;show_faces=true&amp;action=like&amp;colorscheme=light&amp;font&amp;height=80&amp;appId=208144579230853" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border:none; overflow:hidden; width:320px; height:80px;" allowTransparency="true"></iframe>
+		</div>		
+<div id="social-widget-twitter">
+			<a href="https://twitter.com/AdobeDigMktg" class="twitter-follow-button" data-show-count="true" data-size="large">Fol�low @AdobeDigMktg</a>
+<script>!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs");</script>
+		</div>
+
+		<div id="social-widget-icons">
+			<div id="social-widget-icons-youtube"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/adobeomniture" rel="nofollow external" target="_blank" title="Adobe Digital Marketing YouTube Channel"></a></div>
+			<div id="social-widget-icons-linkedin"><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/company/adobe" rel="nofollow external" target="_blank"  title="Adobe Digital Marketing on LinkedIn"></a></div>
+			<div id="social-widget-icons-emailsubscribe"><a href="http://feedburner.google.com/fb/a/mailverify?uri=AdobeDigitalMarketing&amp;loc=en_US" rel="nofollow external" target="_blank"  title="Subscribe to Adobe Digital Marketing Blog by Email"></a></div>
+			<div id="social-widget-icons-rss"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/AdobeDigitalMarketing" rel="nofollow external" target="_blank" title="RSS Feed"></a></div>
+		</div></div>
+		</div></li><li id="popular_posts_bars-3" class="widget_popular_posts_bars widget fix"><div class="widget-pad"><h3 class="widget-title">Popular Posts</h3></div></li></ul><div class="clear"></div></div></section>				<div id="sidebar1" class="scolumn" >
+					<div class="scolumn-pad">
+						<section id="sb_primary" class="copy top-sb_primary sb_primary-bottom"><div class="copy-pad"><ul id="list_sb_primary" class="sidebar_widgets fix"></ul><div class="clear"></div></div></section>	
+					</div>
+				</div>
+					</div>		
+			</div>
+<div class="clear"></div></div></div></div></section>			</div>
+						<div id="morefoot_area" class="container-group"></div>
+			<div class="clear"></div>
+		</div>
+	</div>
+</div>
+<footer id="footer" class="container-group">
+	<div class="outline fix"><section id="footcols" class="container fix content-footcols footcols-bottom"><div class="texture"><div class="content"><div class="content-pad"><div class="fcolumns ppfull pprow"><div class="fcolumns-pad fix"><div class="pp4 footcol"><div class="footcol-pad"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing" class="home" title="Home"><img src="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/themes/pagelines-template-theme/images/adobe-bw.png" alt="Adobe Digital Marketing Blog"/></a></div></div><div class="pp4 footcol"><div class="footcol-pad"><h3 class="widget-title">Pages</h3><div class="menu-channels-container"><ul id="menu-channels-1" class="footer-links list-links"><li class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-5353"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/digital-marketing/">Digital Marketing</a></li>
+<li class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-5349"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/analytics/">Analytics</a></li>
+<li class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category current-post-ancestor menu-item-5359"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/personalization/">Personalization</a></li>
+<li class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-6825"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/industries/">Industries</a></li>
+<li class="menu-item menu-item-type-taxonomy menu-item-object-category menu-item-5802"><a href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/category/executive-insights/">Executive Insights</a></li>
+</ul></div></div></div><div class="pp4 footcol"><div class="footcol-pad"><h3 class="widget-title">The Latest</h3><ul class="latest_posts"><li class="list-item fix"><div class="list_item_text"><h5><a class="list_text_link" href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/analytics/whats-the-difference-between-reporting-and-analysis-a-question-i-get-asked-a-lot/"><span class="list-title">What's the Difference between Reporting and Analysis � A Question I Get Asked a Lot</span></a></h5><div class="list-excerpt">In my last blog, I mentioned Insight as an analytical tool for&nbsp;<span class="hellip">[&hellip;]</span></div></div></li></ul></div></div><div class="pp4 footcol"><div class="footcol-pad"><h3 class="widget-title">More</h3><div class="findent footer-more">See how Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. We are the leader in delivering solutions that let customers produce, distribute, and realize value from great content, whether in media and publishing or digital marketing.</div></div></div><div class="pp4 footcol"><div class="footcol-pad"><div class="findent terms">� 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.</div></div></div></div></div><div class="clear"></div><div class="clear"></div></div></div></div></section></div>
+</footer>
+</div>
+
+<!-- AddThis Button Begin -->
+<script type="text/javascript">var addthis_product = 'wpp-264';
+var addthis_config = {"data_track_clickback":false,"data_track_addressbar":false};if (typeof(addthis_share) == "undefined"){ addthis_share = {"templates":{"twitter":"{{title}} {{url}} via @AdobeDigMktg"},"url_transforms":{"shorten":{"twitter":"bitly"}},"shorteners":{"bitly":{"login":"chwarren","apiKey":"R_2dc512fa61026464ab346a879adf2a77"}}};}</script><script type="text/javascript" src="//s7.addthis.com/js/250/addthis_widget.js#pubid=ra-4f09a9be5db9675c"></script><script type="text/javascript">var $opt_initial_top = 320;var $opt_scrolled_top = 20;var $opt_browser_width = 1140;var $opt_box_left = 110;</script><script type="text/javascript" src="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/plugins/getsocial/lib/getsocial.js"></script>					<div class="getsocial"><div class="sharebutton"><div id="fb-root"></div><script>(function(d, s, id) {  var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];  if (d.getElementById(id)) return;  js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id;  js.src = "//connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1";  fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);}(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk'));</script><div class="fb-like" data-href="http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.adobe.com%2Fdigitalmarketing%2Fpersonalization%2Fconversion-optimization%2Funderstand-the-math-behind-it-all-bayesian-statistics%2F" data-send="false" data-layout="box_count" data-width="63" data-show-faces="false"></div></div><div class="sharebutton"><a href="http://twitter.com/share" class="twitter-share-button" data-count="vertical" data-via="AdobeDigMktg" data-related="AdobeDigMktg">Tweet</a><script type="text/javascript" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script></div><div class="sharebutton"><script type="text/javascript" src="http://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js"></script><g:plusone size="tall"  href="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/personalization/conversion-optimization/understand-the-math-behind-it-all-bayesian-statistics/"></g:plusone></div><div class="sharebutton"><script src="http://platform.linkedin.com/in.js" type="text/javascript"></script><script type="IN/Share" data-counter="top"></script></div></div>
+<style type='text/css'>.nrelate_flyout {display:block; right: -400px; bottom: 0px; width:360px;} #nrelate_flyout_open{display:block; right: -80px;bottom: 0px;} #nrelate_flyout_close{background: #fff url(http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/plugins/nrelate-flyout/images/close_window.gif) no-repeat 0 0} </style>
+	<div id="nrelate_flyout_1" class="nrelate nrelate_flyout nr_slideout_right nr_animate_type_slideout nrelate_animate_style_centered nrelate_huf nr_1col nr_80"></div>
+	<!--[if IE 6]>
+		<script type="text/javascript">jQuery('.nrelate_huf').removeClass('nrelate_huf');</script>
+	<![endif]-->
+	
+		<script type="text/javascript">
+	/*<![CDATA[*/
+			function getScrollY() {
+		    scrOfY = 0;
+		    if( typeof( window.pageYOffset ) == "number" ) {
+		        scrOfY = window.pageYOffset;
+		    } else if( document.body && ( document.body.scrollLeft || document.body.scrollTop ) ) {
+		        scrOfY = document.body.scrollTop;
+		    } else if( document.documentElement && ( document.documentElement.scrollLeft || document.documentElement.scrollTop ) ) {
+		        scrOfY = document.documentElement.scrollTop;
+		    }
+		    return scrOfY;
+	}
+	
+	function nr_fo_get_closed_cookie(){ 
+		var NameOfCookie="nr_fo_closed";
+		if (document.cookie.length > 0) { 
+			begin = document.cookie.indexOf(NameOfCookie+"="); 
+			if (begin != -1) { 
+				begin += NameOfCookie.length+1; 
+				end = document.cookie.indexOf(";", begin);
+				if (end == -1) 
+					end = document.cookie.length;
+				return unescape(document.cookie.substring(begin, end)); 
+			}
+		}
+		return "false"; 
+	}
+	
+	function nr_fo_set_closed_cookie(value,domain) { 
+		var NameOfCookie="nr_fo_closed";
+		var ExpireDate = new Date ();
+		ExpireDate.setTime(ExpireDate.getTime() + (7*24*60*60*1000));
+		document.cookie = NameOfCookie + "=" + value + "; expires=" + ExpireDate.toGMTString()+"; path=/" + "; domain="+domain ;
+	}
+			value=nr_fo_get_closed_cookie();
+		if(value=="false")
+			nr_fo_closed=false;
+		else
+	  		nr_fo_closed=true;
+		
+		var nr_fo_hidden = true;
+		jQuery(function($){$(window).scroll(function() {var lastScreen;lastScreen = getScrollY() + $(window).height() < ($("#nr_fo_bot_of_post").offset().top) ? false : true;if (lastScreen && !nr_fo_closed && getScrollY()!=0 && nRelate.flyout_show) {$(".nrelate_flyout").stop().animate({"right":"0px"});nr_fo_hidden = false}else if (nr_fo_closed && lastScreen && getScrollY()!=0 && nRelate.flyout_show) {$("#nrelate_flyout_open").stop().animate({"right":"0px"});nr_fo_hidden=false;}else if (!nr_fo_hidden && !nr_fo_closed) {$(".nrelate_flyout").stop().animate({"right":"-400px"});nr_fo_hidden = true;}else if (!nr_fo_hidden && nr_fo_closed) {$("#nrelate_flyout_open").stop().animate({"right":"-80px"});nr_fo_hidden = true;}});$("#nrelate_flyout_close").live("click",function() { $(".nrelate_flyout").stop().animate({"right":"-400px"}); $("#nrelate_flyout_open").stop().animate({"right":"0px"}); nr_fo_closed = true; nr_fo_hidden = false; nr_fo_set_closed_cookie(true,"blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing");});$("#nrelate_flyout_open").live("click",function() { $("#nrelate_flyout_open").stop().animate({"right":"-80px"}); $(".nrelate_flyout").stop().animate({"right":"0px"});nr_fo_closed = false; nr_fo_hidden = false; nr_fo_set_closed_cookie(false,"blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing");});});
+		nRelate.domain = "blogs.adobe.com%2Fdigitalmarketing";
+		var entity_decoded_nr_url = jQuery('<div/>').html("http://api.nrelate.com/fow_wp/0.51.1/?tag=nrelate_flyout&keywords=Understand+the+Math+Behind+it+All%3A++Bayesian+Statistics&domain=blogs.adobe.com%2Fdigitalmarketing&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.adobe.com%2Fdigitalmarketing%2Fpersonalization%2Fconversion-optimization%2Funderstand-the-math-behind-it-all-bayesian-statistics%2F&nr_div_number=1").text();
+		nRelate.getNrelatePosts(entity_decoded_nr_url);
+	/*]]>*/
+	</script>
+    <div id='nrelate_flyout_open' class='nrelate_animate_style_centered nr_slideout_right'></div>
+			<!-- tracker added by Omniture-SiteCatalyst plugin v0.1.0: http://www.rudishumpert.com/projects/ -->
+			<script type="text/javascript" src="http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/s_code.js"></script>
+			<script type="text/javascript"><!--
+			
+			s.pageName = "Understand the Math Behind it All:  Bayesian Statistics"
+			s.channel = "Conversion Optimization"
+			s.pageType = "Article"
+			
+			
+			
+		    s.prop17= "No"
+		    
+
+			/************* DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! **************/
+			var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code) //omniture variable
+			-->
+			</script>
+
+	
+			<script type='text/javascript' src='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/themes/pagelines/sections/nav/script.superfish.js?ver=1.0'></script>
+<script type='text/javascript' src='http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/themes/pagelines/sections/nav/script.bgiframe.js?ver=1.0'></script>
+</body>
+</html>

data/test/articles/20120528_1142_thestar.com.my.content.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+PETALING JAYA: Computer game soundtracks are as recognisable as movie scores these days and have garnered a huge following of fans.
+
+Where once a videogame score was just a potpourri of cheesy tunes and sound effects, these now comprise orchestral strains and can qualify as audio masterpieces in their own right.
+
+�The soundtrack is an integral part of the action in a videogame,� said music composer Tommy Tallarico.
+
+He is also the creator, executive producer and host of Video Games Live (VGL) � a concert tour featuring videogame music compositions � at Istana Budaya yesterday and today.
+
+Tallarico � who is a cousin of Aerosmith frontman and American Idol judge Steven Tyler � was speaking at an interview on The Red Zone, a radio show by RedFM on Thursday.
+
+He believes that more videogame players can hum the soundtrack of their favourite game than there are those who can hum the soundtrack of their favourite movie.
+
+�This is because people usually spend about two hours to watch a movie but videogamers invest about 30 to 40 hours of playing time with a computer game,� he said.
+
+Tallarico is in the 2008 Guinness Book of Records for being the most prolific videogame music composer. He has 275 game soundtracks � and counting � to his credit, including classics such as Earthworm Jim and the original Prince of Persia.
+
+Also in the studio was Norihiko Hibino, a composer and saxophonist, who composed most of the Metal Gear Solid game soundtracks and, recently, the soundtrack for Bayonetta.
+
+Tallarico got involved in the industry when on his first day of selling electronic keyboards at a music store in the 1990s, his first customer, who happened to be a game producer, had noticed his videogame-themed T-shirt and immediately offered him a job as a composer.
+
+On the other hand, Hibino got into the videogame music industry as a saxophonist because that was the only job he could find at the time.
+
+He has not looked back since.
+
+Both now see VGL as a way to promote videogame soundtracks as a legitimate art form, equivalent to classical or mainstream music.
+
+Tallarico�s favourite piece is the Street Fighter II medley and the theme from Castlevania, while Hibino�s is the theme from Metal Gear Solid: Snake Eater.