noshot 0.9.0__py3-none-any.whl → 2.0.0__py3-none-any.whl

noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/9. ARIMA Forecasting.ipynb

@@ -1,220 +0,0 @@
-{
- "cells": [
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": null,
-   "id": "6e3f5839-6844-42c3-a57c-5e6324c7ee43",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "import pandas as pd\n",
-    "import numpy as np\n",
-    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
-    "from scipy import stats\n",
-    "from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf, plot_pacf\n",
-    "from statsmodels.graphics.api import qqplot\n",
-    "from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA\n",
-    "from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller\n",
-    "from statsmodels.api import tsa\n",
-    "from sklearn.metrics import r2_score\n",
-    "from sklearn.model_selection import TimeSeriesSplit\n",
-    "import warnings\n",
-    "warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": null,
-   "id": "f32d68f1-db8f-4b74-b23e-2f3ad3b56eed",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "df = pd.read_csv('monthly-sunspots.csv', index_col = 'YEAR')\n",
-    "df"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": null,
-   "id": "500a40bd-7d8f-4d52-923a-ad76d590216f",
-   "metadata": {
-    "scrolled": true
-   },
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "df.plot(figsize=(15,8), color = 'purple')"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": null,
-   "id": "6dc6f56f-93bd-4506-b32a-e0f7361829b7",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "result = adfuller(df['SUNACTIVITY'])\n",
-    "display(result)"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": null,
-   "id": "13ece976-8c18-4a2e-b44a-49fa6bc6ff85",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "pvalue =  result[1]\n",
-    "if pvalue < 0.05:\n",
-    "    print(\"Stationary\")\n",
-    "else:\n",
-    "    print(\"Non Stationary\")"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": null,
-   "id": "d83cf3f0-244b-4961-8ff4-dedf97e5a766",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "plot_acf(df['SUNACTIVITY'], lags = 40)\n",
-    "plot_pacf(df['SUNACTIVITY'], lags = 40)\n",
-    "plt.show()"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": null,
-   "id": "5dacfe47-b35b-46e4-a06f-6001040a6405",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "model = ARIMA(list(df['SUNACTIVITY']), order = (1,0,1))\n",
-    "result = model.fit()\n",
-    "pred = result.predict()\n",
-    "print(r2_score(df, pred))"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": null,
-   "id": "171168aa-f0a2-43f1-a195-72b9f3791a53",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "plt.plot(list(df['SUNACTIVITY']))\n",
-    "plt.plot(pred, linestyle = '--')\n",
-    "plt.legend(['Actual Sunspots'], ['Predicted SUnspots'])\n",
-    "plt.xlabel('Timesteps')\n",
-    "plt.show()"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": null,
-   "id": "62e74f51-e0b4-4b22-856b-5a28838375b7",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "ax = pd.Series(result.resid).hist()\n",
-    "ax.set_xlabel('Residual')\n",
-    "ax.set_ylabel('Number of Occurences')\n",
-    "plt.show()"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": null,
-   "id": "1cac3ae4-d8f2-49c4-a04d-fabf5290977a",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "result.summary()"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": null,
-   "id": "e3ae6db1-4b9c-4a9b-8286-b6484fabb348",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "data_array = df.values\n",
-    "avg_errors = []\n",
-    "for p in range(1):\n",
-    "    for q in range(13):\n",
-    "        errors = []\n",
-    "        tscv = TimeSeriesSplit(test_size = 10)\n",
-    "        for train_index, test_index in tscv.split(data_array):\n",
-    "            x_train, x_test = data_array[train_index], data_array[test_index]\n",
-    "            x_test_orig = x_test\n",
-    "\n",
-    "            fcst = []\n",
-    "            for stop in range(10):\n",
-    "                try:\n",
-    "                    mod = ARIMA(x_train, order = (p,0,q))\n",
-    "                    res = mod.fit()\n",
-    "                    fcst.append(res.forecast(steps = 1))\n",
-    "                except:\n",
-    "                    print(\"Error\")\n",
-    "                    fcst.append(-9999999.)\n",
-    "                x_train = np.concatenate((x_train, x_test[0:1,]))\n",
-    "                x_test = x_test[1:]\n",
-    "            errors.append(r2_score(x_test_orig, fcst))\n",
-    "        pq_result = [p, q, np.mean(errors)]\n",
-    "        print(pq_result)\n",
-    "        avg_errors.append(pq_result)\n",
-    "avg_errors = pd.DataFrame(avg_errors)\n",
-    "avg_errors.columns = ['p', 'q', 'error']\n",
-    "result = avg_errors.pivot(index = 'p', columns = 'q')"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": null,
-   "id": "f0882bbd-e5de-4249-b74c-9f96c6777205",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "dta_array = df.values\n",
-    "X_train, X_test = dta_array[:10], dta_array[-10:]\n",
-    "X_test_orig = X_test\n",
-    "\n",
-    "fcst = []\n",
-    "for step in range(10):\n",
-    "    mod = ARIMA(X_train, order = (10,0,9))\n",
-    "    res = mod.fit()\n",
-    "    fcst.append(res.forecast(steps = 1))\n",
-    "    X_train = np.concatenate((X_train, X_test[0:1,:]))\n",
-    "    X_test = X_test[1:]\n",
-    "\n",
-    "plt.plot(X_test_orig)\n",
-    "plt.plot(fcst)\n",
-    "plt.legend(['Actual Sunspots', 'Predicted Sunspots'])\n",
-    "plt.xlabel('Time Steps of Test Data')\n",
-    "plt.show()"
-   ]
-  }
- ],
- "metadata": {
-  "kernelspec": {
-   "display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)",
-   "language": "python",
-   "name": "python3"
-  },
-  "language_info": {
-   "codemirror_mode": {
-    "name": "ipython",
-    "version": 3
-   },
-   "file_extension": ".py",
-   "mimetype": "text/x-python",
-   "name": "python",
-   "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
-   "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
-   "version": "3.12.4"
-  }
- },
- "nbformat": 4,
- "nbformat_minor": 5
-}

noshot-0.9.0.dist-info/RECORD

@@ -1,15 +0,0 @@
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-noshot/main.py,sha256=zXegIqjJPARlPnQMS-B2dAENcvyaZkNwmue63Gm8lHU,663
-noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/10. Seasonal ARIMA Forecasting.ipynb,sha256=Iq7xWxSx-aubB84YPv0lXzOOn3QG8mTpXkYJ01XjP38,6535
-noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/11. Multivariate ARIMA Forecasting.ipynb,sha256=kgsay7FG6OKnso-D2JfBM4GB6XrWY5WrvA9fTqrA4uU,5190
-noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/6. ACF PACF.ipynb,sha256=6fPk4Un3MPEB-TDrN0mKqUFIMa83BT0Rijf0huw7snE,1896
-noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/7. Differencing.ipynb,sha256=BcPvrF6pgrGEeX74213fMQWpXrmmUAguGg79_xurvds,4133
-noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/8. ARMA Forecasting.ipynb,sha256=_Rw3ZV1a2-0W1LufbyJqrOzuO8R3lomF0SdBuXxtCZk,5122
-noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/9. ARIMA Forecasting.ipynb,sha256=_hxn4E0Zg2_N1-jIaFrws13yrR83BHS0eQKHlHHFdjc,5943
-noshot/utils/__init__.py,sha256=QVrN1ZpzPXxZqDOqot5-t_ulFjZXVx7Cvr-Is9AK0po,110
-noshot/utils/shell_utils.py,sha256=-XfgYlNQlULa_rRJ3vsfTns4m_jiueGEj396J_y0Gus,2611
-noshot-0.9.0.dist-info/licenses/LICENSE.txt,sha256=fgCruaVm5cUjFGOeEoGIimT6nnUunBqcNZHpGzK8TSw,1086
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-noshot-0.9.0.dist-info/top_level.txt,sha256=UL-c0HffdRwohz-y9icY_rnY48pQDdxGcBsgyCKh2Q8,7
-noshot-0.9.0.dist-info/RECORD,,