noshot 0.9.0__py3-none-any.whl → 2.0.0__py3-none-any.whl
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/bill-charge.ipynb +239 -0
- noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/daily-min-temperatures.ipynb +239 -0
- noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/data/bill-data.csv +21 -0
- noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/data/daily-min-temperatures.csv +3651 -0
- noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/data/monthly-sunspots.csv +2821 -0
- noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/monthly-sunspots.ipynb +241 -0
- {noshot-0.9.0.dist-info → noshot-2.0.0.dist-info}/METADATA +1 -1
- noshot-2.0.0.dist-info/RECORD +15 -0
- {noshot-0.9.0.dist-info → noshot-2.0.0.dist-info}/WHEEL +1 -1
- noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/10. Seasonal ARIMA Forecasting.ipynb +0 -246
- noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/11. Multivariate ARIMA Forecasting.ipynb +0 -228
- noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/6. ACF PACF.ipynb +0 -77
- noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/7. Differencing.ipynb +0 -167
- noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/8. ARMA Forecasting.ipynb +0 -197
- noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/9. ARIMA Forecasting.ipynb +0 -220
- noshot-0.9.0.dist-info/RECORD +0 -15
- {noshot-0.9.0.dist-info → noshot-2.0.0.dist-info}/licenses/LICENSE.txt +0 -0
- {noshot-0.9.0.dist-info → noshot-2.0.0.dist-info}/top_level.txt +0 -0
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"cells": [
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "3d63e9c0",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"import pandas as pd\n",
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"import numpy as np\n",
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"import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
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"import seaborn as sns\n",
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"from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf,plot_pacf\n",
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"from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller\n",
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"from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA\n",
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"from statsmodels.tsa.statespace import sarimax\n",
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"from sklearn.metrics import r2_score,mean_squared_error"
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]
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},
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "411787bc",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"df=pd.read_csv('data/monthly-sunspots.csv')\n",
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"df['Date']=df['Month']\n",
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"del df['Month']\n",
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"display(df.head())"
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]
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "af7abd2d",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"df['Date']=pd.to_datetime(df['Date'])\n",
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"df"
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]
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "10b20a75",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"print(df.isnull().sum())"
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "d8a439ba",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"display(df.describe())"
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]
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "d7ef84ea",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"df.info()"
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "f79409e8",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"plt.plot(df['Sunspots'],label='Sunspots')\n",
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"plt.xlabel('Date')\n",
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"plt.ylabel(\"Sunspots\")\n",
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"plt.legend()\n",
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"plt.title('Sunspots By Date')\n",
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"plt.show()"
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]
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},
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "fbf0d907",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"def stationarity_test(data):\n",
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" data=adfuller(data)\n",
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" print(f'Result : The Data is {\"not\" if data[1]<0.05 else \"\"} Stationary')\n",
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"\n",
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"stationarity_test(df['Sunspots'])"
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]
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "7965415d",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"plot_acf(df['Sunspots'],lags=7)\n",
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"plot_pacf(df['Sunspots'],lags=7)\n",
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"plt.show()"
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "7c5c5023",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"arma_model=ARIMA(df['Sunspots'],order=(2,0,0))\n",
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"arma_fit=arma_model.fit()\n",
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"display(arma_fit.summary())"
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "46da16b9",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"arima_model=ARIMA(df['Sunspots'],order=(2,1,0))\n",
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"arima_fit=arima_model.fit()\n",
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"display(arima_fit.summary())"
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},
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "1e629e66",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"sarima_model=sarimax.SARIMAX(df['Sunspots'],order=(1,1,0),seasonal_order=(1,2,0,4))\n",
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"sarima_fit=sarima_model.fit()\n",
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"display(sarima_fit.summary())"
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "e3ae7519",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"display(arma_fit.aic,arima_fit.aic,sarima_fit.aic)"
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]
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},
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "e9e40bbd",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"display(arma_fit.bic,arima_fit.bic,sarima_fit.bic)"
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]
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},
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "8773dcb6",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"display(arma_fit.hqic,arima_fit.hqic,sarima_fit.hqic)"
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]
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},
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "50ca8a19",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"arima_fit.resid.plot(color='teal')\n",
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"plt.title('Residual Plot')\n",
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"plt.show()"
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]
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},
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "6b6ddce5",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"plt.plot(df['Sunspots'],label='Original',color='blue')\n",
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"plt.plot(arima_fit.predict(),label='Forecast',color='red')\n",
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"plt.title(\"Forecast\")\n",
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"plt.legend()\n",
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"plt.show()"
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]
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},
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "d3839c19",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"print(f\"r2_Score : {r2_score(df['Sunspots'],arima_fit.predict())}\")\n",
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"print(f\"Mean Squared Error : {mean_squared_error(df['Sunspots'],arima_fit.predict())}\")"
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]
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}
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],
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"metadata": {
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"kernelspec": {
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"display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)",
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"language": "python",
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"name": "python3"
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},
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"language_info": {
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"codemirror_mode": {
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"name": "ipython",
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"version": 3
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},
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"file_extension": ".py",
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"mimetype": "text/x-python",
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"name": "python",
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"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
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"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
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"version": "3.12.4"
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}
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},
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"nbformat": 4,
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"nbformat_minor": 5
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}
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noshot/__init__.py,sha256=000R40tii8lDFU8C1fBaD3SOnxD0PWRNWZU-km49YrU,21
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noshot/main.py,sha256=zXegIqjJPARlPnQMS-B2dAENcvyaZkNwmue63Gm8lHU,663
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noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/bill-charge.ipynb,sha256=YL8YClvZGctD1gEMZXf0XNlAGaqdvRJ5-73_8b3ij3Q,5205
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noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/daily-min-temperatures.ipynb,sha256=N7q4NBhBXzzlmp97R3gNh4Fh-EarM7J9sdgAWzsQKIw,5119
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noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/monthly-sunspots.ipynb,sha256=mcyjIFL5Zye5j_HqEqFQns4fnu3NzYTUfEXa2jPfnPU,5226
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noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/data/bill-data.csv,sha256=X5CgQyNbpbCpsjdNLatK8__Qg_yiscOVqo9k1rzJRPQ,490
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noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/data/daily-min-temperatures.csv,sha256=neLFZzg9m1CUv3S4fitPJqrqSx3xOMVD08JIJS_Efm4,59637
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noshot/data/ML TS XAI/TS/data/monthly-sunspots.csv,sha256=xOyMxX2fb7bs2z4fN_Jbb0ut1RJMVZMQUrDNL8O8cfM,45039
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noshot/utils/__init__.py,sha256=QVrN1ZpzPXxZqDOqot5-t_ulFjZXVx7Cvr-Is9AK0po,110
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noshot/utils/shell_utils.py,sha256=-XfgYlNQlULa_rRJ3vsfTns4m_jiueGEj396J_y0Gus,2611
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noshot-2.0.0.dist-info/licenses/LICENSE.txt,sha256=fgCruaVm5cUjFGOeEoGIimT6nnUunBqcNZHpGzK8TSw,1086
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noshot-2.0.0.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=G9BAFS8FqRu2zMFDf_kt3JyOAPIHYU0MabufJ8UEHto,2573
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noshot-2.0.0.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=pxyMxgL8-pra_rKaQ4drOZAegBVuX-G_4nRHjjgWbmo,91
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noshot-2.0.0.dist-info/top_level.txt,sha256=UL-c0HffdRwohz-y9icY_rnY48pQDdxGcBsgyCKh2Q8,7
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noshot-2.0.0.dist-info/RECORD,,
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"from pandas.plotting import autocorrelation_plot\n",
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"from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf, plot_pacf\n",
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"id": "b10b8b58-6c78-442e-b712-67b16f228f15",
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"source": [
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"df = pd.read_csv('monthly-sunspots.csv', parse_dates=[0])\n",
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"df.head(10)"
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]
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},
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "3b123997-e868-4998-bbb6-9031ea8ab39f",
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"plt.figure(figsize=(10,8))\n",
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"plt.plot(df['Month'], df['Sunspots'], color = 'green', label = 'Sunspot Numbers')\n",
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"plt.xlabel('Date')\n",
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"plt.ylabel('Sunspot Numbers')\n",
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"plt.grid()\n",
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"plt.title('Monthly Mean Sunspot Numbers')\n",
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"plt.show()"
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]
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},
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "9c56e5d1-a019-457b-8313-c5f71b378a5a",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"df.describe().T"
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]
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},
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{
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "94752ac3-fb85-41c1-94dc-f1a05b0baf75",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"df['Month'] = pd.to_datetime(df['Month'])\n",
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"data_new = df.set_index(df['Month'])\n",
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"data_new = data_new.drop(labels = ['Month'], axis = 1)\n",
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"data_new.head()"
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]
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},
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "b02c91b4-f7ee-4ce5-b707-6bf2604bed55",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"fig = plt.figure(figsize=(10,8))\n",
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"data_new['Sunspots'].plot(style = 'k.')"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "dca190cd-41b8-44d5-8ed2-190c87b04fb9",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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90
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"data_q = data_new.resample('q').mean()\n",
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"data_q.head()"
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]
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|
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "1f944805-6b99-4854-a7c2-53bf2a6de1c2",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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101
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"def adfuller_test(data):\n",
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" result = adfuller(data)\n",
|
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103
|
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" labels = ['ADF Test Statistic' 'P-value', 'Lags Used', 'Number of Observation Used']\n",
|
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104
|
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" for value, label in zip(result, labels):\n",
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|
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" print(label+\": \"+str(value))\n",
|
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106
|
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" if result[1] <= 0.05:\n",
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|
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" print(\"Strong evidencew against the null hypothesis(h0), reject the null hypothesis. Data has no unit root and is stationary\")\n",
|
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|
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" else:\n",
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|
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" print(\"Weak evidence against null hypothesis, time series has a unit root, indicating it is non-stationary\")"
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|
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "1e2740f4-ba2b-4fc4-a310-131b15ae20cb",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"data_q.plot(figsize=(10,8))"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "8062e59f-4149-45fc-b2ca-3f586c6ed078",
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"metadata": {},
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|
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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129
|
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"base_data = data_q.copy()\n",
|
|
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|
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"base_data['Monthly Mean Total Sunspot Number'] = base_data['Sunspots']\n",
|
|
131
|
-
"base_data['Shifter Monthly Mean Total Sunspot Number'] = base_data['Monthly Mean Total Sunspot Number'].shift(1)"
|
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|
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]
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|
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},
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|
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "8232f405-2560-4b9a-870e-8af209ef0f87",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"base_data.head()"
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|
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]
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|
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},
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|
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{
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|
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|
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"cell_type": "code",
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|
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"execution_count": null,
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|
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"id": "9cb81777-9f8d-4c64-ad4f-7c245454085e",
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|
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"metadata": {},
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|
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"outputs": [],
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|
150
|
-
"source": [
|
|
151
|
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"base_data[['Monthly Mean Total Sunspot Number', 'Shifter Monthly Mean Total Sunspot Number']].plot()"
|
|
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|
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]
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|
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|
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},
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|
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|
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{
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|
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|
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"cell_type": "code",
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|
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"execution_count": null,
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|
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"id": "1e27fde3-cef9-4366-a972-52a974226d91",
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|
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"metadata": {},
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|
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"outputs": [],
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160
|
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"source": [
|
|
161
|
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"base_data = base_data.dropna()\n",
|
|
162
|
-
"print(\"Mean Squared Error:\", mean_squared_error(base_data['Monthly Mean Total Sunspot Number'], \n",
|
|
163
|
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" base_data['Shifter Monthly Mean Total Sunspot Number']))"
|
|
164
|
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]
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|
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},
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|
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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|
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "cd01e7eb-5e88-41e8-9ddd-1ea35f054b4b",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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|
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"source": [
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173
|
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"fig = plt.figure(figsize=(10,8))\n",
|
|
174
|
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"autocorrelation_plot(data_q)\n",
|
|
175
|
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"plt.show()"
|
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|
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]
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177
|
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"id": "2d127256-a9cc-431d-95ae-6f8323aa21b7",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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|
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"source": [
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185
|
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"fig = plt.figure(figsize=(10,8))\n",
|
|
186
|
-
"ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)\n",
|
|
187
|
-
"fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(data_q, lags = 40, ax = ax1)\n",
|
|
188
|
-
"ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)\n",
|
|
189
|
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"fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(data_q, lags = 40, ax = ax2)"
|
|
190
|
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]
|
|
191
|
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},
|
|
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|
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{
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|
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|
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"cell_type": "code",
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|
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"execution_count": null,
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|
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|
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"id": "03258c9e-a3b6-465b-98ca-d5cc6a481626",
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|
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"metadata": {},
|
|
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|
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"outputs": [],
|
|
198
|
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"source": [
|
|
199
|
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"model = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(data_q['Sunspots'], order=(2,0,2), seasonal_order=(2,0,2,6))\n",
|
|
200
|
-
"results = model.fit()"
|
|
201
|
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]
|
|
202
|
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},
|
|
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|
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{
|
|
204
|
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"cell_type": "code",
|
|
205
|
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"execution_count": null,
|
|
206
|
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"id": "4eb643eb-59ae-475c-9096-87e536da8e62",
|
|
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|
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"metadata": {},
|
|
208
|
-
"outputs": [],
|
|
209
|
-
"source": [
|
|
210
|
-
"results.summary()"
|
|
211
|
-
]
|
|
212
|
-
},
|
|
213
|
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{
|
|
214
|
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"cell_type": "code",
|
|
215
|
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"execution_count": null,
|
|
216
|
-
"id": "c2350c09-4c80-4c24-88d8-3b645981ce21",
|
|
217
|
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"metadata": {},
|
|
218
|
-
"outputs": [],
|
|
219
|
-
"source": [
|
|
220
|
-
"data_q['forecast'] = results.predict(start = 1000, end = 1084, dynamic = True)\n",
|
|
221
|
-
"data_q[['Sunspots', 'forecast']].plot(figsize = (10,8))"
|
|
222
|
-
]
|
|
223
|
-
}
|
|
224
|
-
],
|
|
225
|
-
"metadata": {
|
|
226
|
-
"kernelspec": {
|
|
227
|
-
"display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)",
|
|
228
|
-
"language": "python",
|
|
229
|
-
"name": "python3"
|
|
230
|
-
},
|
|
231
|
-
"language_info": {
|
|
232
|
-
"codemirror_mode": {
|
|
233
|
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"name": "ipython",
|
|
234
|
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"version": 3
|
|
235
|
-
},
|
|
236
|
-
"file_extension": ".py",
|
|
237
|
-
"mimetype": "text/x-python",
|
|
238
|
-
"name": "python",
|
|
239
|
-
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
|
|
240
|
-
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
|
|
241
|
-
"version": "3.12.4"
|
|
242
|
-
}
|
|
243
|
-
},
|
|
244
|
-
"nbformat": 4,
|
|
245
|
-
"nbformat_minor": 5
|
|
246
|
-
}
|