diff-diff 2.1.0__cp39-cp39-macosx_11_0_arm64.whl

diff_diff/twfe.py

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+"""
+Two-Way Fixed Effects estimator for panel Difference-in-Differences.
+"""
+
+import warnings
+from typing import TYPE_CHECKING, List, Optional
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+if TYPE_CHECKING:
+    from diff_diff.bacon import BaconDecompositionResults
+
+from diff_diff.estimators import DifferenceInDifferences
+from diff_diff.linalg import LinearRegression
+from diff_diff.results import DiDResults
+from diff_diff.utils import (
+    compute_confidence_interval,
+    compute_p_value,
+    within_transform as _within_transform_util,
+)
+
+
+class TwoWayFixedEffects(DifferenceInDifferences):
+    """
+    Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) estimator for panel DiD.
+
+    Extends DifferenceInDifferences to handle panel data with unit
+    and time fixed effects.
+
+    Parameters
+    ----------
+    robust : bool, default=True
+        Whether to use heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors.
+    cluster : str, optional
+        Column name for cluster-robust standard errors.
+        If None, automatically clusters at the unit level (the `unit`
+        parameter passed to `fit()`). This differs from
+        DifferenceInDifferences where cluster=None means no clustering.
+    alpha : float, default=0.05
+        Significance level for confidence intervals.
+
+    Notes
+    -----
+    This estimator uses the regression:
+
+        Y_it = α_i + γ_t + β*(D_i × Post_t) + X_it'δ + ε_it
+
+    where α_i are unit fixed effects and γ_t are time fixed effects.
+
+    Warning: TWFE can be biased with staggered treatment timing
+    and heterogeneous treatment effects. Consider using
+    more robust estimators (e.g., Callaway-Sant'Anna) for
+    staggered designs.
+    """
+
+    def fit(  # type: ignore[override]
+        self,
+        data: pd.DataFrame,
+        outcome: str,
+        treatment: str,
+        time: str,
+        unit: str,
+        covariates: Optional[List[str]] = None
+    ) -> DiDResults:
+        """
+        Fit Two-Way Fixed Effects model.
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        data : pd.DataFrame
+            Panel data.
+        outcome : str
+            Name of outcome variable column.
+        treatment : str
+            Name of treatment indicator column.
+        time : str
+            Name of time period column.
+        unit : str
+            Name of unit identifier column.
+        covariates : list, optional
+            List of covariate column names.
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        DiDResults
+            Estimation results.
+        """
+        # Validate unit column exists
+        if unit not in data.columns:
+            raise ValueError(f"Unit column '{unit}' not found in data")
+
+        # Check for staggered treatment timing and warn if detected
+        self._check_staggered_treatment(data, treatment, time, unit)
+
+        # Use unit-level clustering if not specified (use local variable to avoid mutation)
+        cluster_var = self.cluster if self.cluster is not None else unit
+
+        # Demean data (within transformation for fixed effects)
+        data_demeaned = self._within_transform(data, outcome, unit, time, covariates)
+
+        # Create treatment × post interaction
+        # For staggered designs, we'd need to identify treatment timing per unit
+        # For now, assume standard 2-period design
+        data_demeaned["_treatment_post"] = (
+            data_demeaned[treatment] * data_demeaned[time]
+        )
+
+        # Extract variables for regression
+        y = data_demeaned[f"{outcome}_demeaned"].values
+        X_list = [data_demeaned["_treatment_post"].values]
+
+        if covariates:
+            for cov in covariates:
+                X_list.append(data_demeaned[f"{cov}_demeaned"].values)
+
+        X = np.column_stack([np.ones(len(y))] + X_list)
+
+        # ATT is the coefficient on treatment_post (index 1)
+        att_idx = 1
+
+        # Degrees of freedom adjustment for fixed effects
+        n_units = data[unit].nunique()
+        n_times = data[time].nunique()
+        df_adjustment = n_units + n_times - 2
+
+        # Always use LinearRegression for initial fit (unified code path)
+        # For wild bootstrap, we don't need cluster SEs from the initial fit
+        cluster_ids = data[cluster_var].values
+        reg = LinearRegression(
+            include_intercept=False,  # Intercept already in X
+            robust=True,  # TWFE always uses robust/cluster SEs
+            cluster_ids=cluster_ids if self.inference != "wild_bootstrap" else None,
+            alpha=self.alpha,
+        ).fit(X, y, df_adjustment=df_adjustment)
+
+        coefficients = reg.coefficients_
+        residuals = reg.residuals_
+        fitted = reg.fitted_values_
+        r_squared = reg.r_squared()
+        att = coefficients[att_idx]
+
+        # Get inference - either from bootstrap or analytical
+        if self.inference == "wild_bootstrap":
+            # Override with wild cluster bootstrap inference
+            se, p_value, conf_int, t_stat, vcov, _ = self._run_wild_bootstrap_inference(
+                X, y, residuals, cluster_ids, att_idx
+            )
+        else:
+            # Use analytical inference from LinearRegression
+            vcov = reg.vcov_
+            inference = reg.get_inference(att_idx)
+            se = inference.se
+            t_stat = inference.t_stat
+            p_value = inference.p_value
+            conf_int = inference.conf_int
+
+        # Count observations
+        treated_units = data[data[treatment] == 1][unit].unique()
+        n_treated = len(treated_units)
+        n_control = n_units - n_treated
+
+        # Determine inference method and bootstrap info
+        inference_method = "analytical"
+        n_bootstrap_used = None
+        n_clusters_used = None
+        if self._bootstrap_results is not None:
+            inference_method = "wild_bootstrap"
+            n_bootstrap_used = self._bootstrap_results.n_bootstrap
+            n_clusters_used = self._bootstrap_results.n_clusters
+
+        self.results_ = DiDResults(
+            att=att,
+            se=se,
+            t_stat=t_stat,
+            p_value=p_value,
+            conf_int=conf_int,
+            n_obs=len(y),
+            n_treated=n_treated,
+            n_control=n_control,
+            alpha=self.alpha,
+            coefficients={"ATT": float(att)},
+            vcov=vcov,
+            residuals=residuals,
+            fitted_values=fitted,
+            r_squared=r_squared,
+            inference_method=inference_method,
+            n_bootstrap=n_bootstrap_used,
+            n_clusters=n_clusters_used,
+        )
+
+        self.is_fitted_ = True
+        return self.results_
+
+    def _within_transform(
+        self,
+        data: pd.DataFrame,
+        outcome: str,
+        unit: str,
+        time: str,
+        covariates: Optional[List[str]] = None
+    ) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """
+        Apply within transformation to remove unit and time fixed effects.
+
+        This implements the standard two-way within transformation:
+        y_it - y_i. - y_.t + y_..
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        data : pd.DataFrame
+            Panel data.
+        outcome : str
+            Outcome variable name.
+        unit : str
+            Unit identifier column.
+        time : str
+            Time period column.
+        covariates : list, optional
+            Covariate column names.
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        pd.DataFrame
+            Data with demeaned variables.
+        """
+        variables = [outcome] + (covariates or [])
+        return _within_transform_util(data, variables, unit, time, suffix="_demeaned")
+
+    def _check_staggered_treatment(
+        self,
+        data: pd.DataFrame,
+        treatment: str,
+        time: str,
+        unit: str,
+    ) -> None:
+        """
+        Check for staggered treatment timing and warn if detected.
+
+        Identifies if different units start treatment at different times,
+        which can bias TWFE estimates when treatment effects are heterogeneous.
+        """
+        # Find first treatment time for each unit
+        treated_obs = data[data[treatment] == 1]
+        if len(treated_obs) == 0:
+            return  # No treated observations
+
+        # Get first treatment time per unit
+        first_treat_times = treated_obs.groupby(unit)[time].min()
+        unique_treat_times = first_treat_times.unique()
+
+        if len(unique_treat_times) > 1:
+            n_groups = len(unique_treat_times)
+            warnings.warn(
+                f"Staggered treatment timing detected: {n_groups} treatment cohorts "
+                f"start treatment at different times. TWFE can be biased when treatment "
+                f"effects are heterogeneous across time. Consider using:\n"
+                f"  - CallawaySantAnna estimator for robust estimates\n"
+                f"  - TwoWayFixedEffects.decompose() to diagnose the decomposition\n"
+                f"  - bacon_decompose() to see weight on 'forbidden' comparisons",
+                UserWarning,
+                stacklevel=3,
+            )
+
+    def decompose(
+        self,
+        data: pd.DataFrame,
+        outcome: str,
+        unit: str,
+        time: str,
+        first_treat: str,
+        weights: str = "approximate",
+    ) -> "BaconDecompositionResults":
+        """
+        Perform Goodman-Bacon decomposition of TWFE estimate.
+
+        Decomposes the TWFE estimate into a weighted average of all possible
+        2x2 DiD comparisons, revealing which comparisons drive the estimate
+        and whether problematic "forbidden comparisons" are involved.
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        data : pd.DataFrame
+            Panel data with unit and time identifiers.
+        outcome : str
+            Name of outcome variable column.
+        unit : str
+            Name of unit identifier column.
+        time : str
+            Name of time period column.
+        first_treat : str
+            Name of column indicating when each unit was first treated.
+            Use 0 (or np.inf) for never-treated units.
+        weights : str, default="approximate"
+            Weight calculation method:
+            - "approximate": Fast simplified formula (default). Good for
+              diagnostic purposes where relative weights are sufficient.
+            - "exact": Variance-based weights from Goodman-Bacon (2021)
+              Theorem 1. Use for publication-quality decompositions.
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        BaconDecompositionResults
+            Decomposition results showing:
+            - TWFE estimate and its weighted-average breakdown
+            - List of all 2x2 comparisons with estimates and weights
+            - Total weight by comparison type (clean vs forbidden)
+
+        Examples
+        --------
+        >>> twfe = TwoWayFixedEffects()
+        >>> decomp = twfe.decompose(
+        ...     data, outcome='y', unit='id', time='t', first_treat='treat_year'
+        ... )
+        >>> decomp.print_summary()
+        >>> # Check weight on forbidden comparisons
+        >>> if decomp.total_weight_later_vs_earlier > 0.2:
+        ...     print("Warning: significant forbidden comparison weight")
+
+        Notes
+        -----
+        This decomposition is essential for understanding potential TWFE bias
+        in staggered adoption designs. The three comparison types are:
+
+        1. **Treated vs Never-treated**: Clean comparisons using never-treated
+           units as controls. These are always valid.
+
+        2. **Earlier vs Later treated**: Uses later-treated units as controls
+           before they receive treatment. These are valid.
+
+        3. **Later vs Earlier treated**: Uses already-treated units as controls.
+           These "forbidden comparisons" can introduce bias when treatment
+           effects are dynamic (changing over time since treatment).
+
+        See Also
+        --------
+        bacon_decompose : Standalone decomposition function
+        BaconDecomposition : Class-based decomposition interface
+        CallawaySantAnna : Robust estimator that avoids forbidden comparisons
+        """
+        from diff_diff.bacon import BaconDecomposition
+
+        decomp = BaconDecomposition(weights=weights)
+        return decomp.fit(data, outcome, unit, time, first_treat)