aigroup-econ-mcp 1.4.3__py3-none-any.whl → 2.0.1__py3-none-any.whl

aigroup_econ_mcp-2.0.1.dist-info/RECORD

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+./econometrics/tests/specific_data_modeling_tests/test_unit_root.py,sha256=87gEu8fDh7LS20xMJk_OrBryA2UYa-8KPUBaVaNFjNc,4539
+./econometrics/tests/specific_data_modeling_tests/test_var.py,sha256=kbWZVftblOULYABBBCiIS5x6JpBdPv-ZgG5HfbtsI4U,3556
+./prompts/__init__.py,sha256=47DEQpj8HBSa-_TImW-5JCeuQeRkm5NMpJWZG3hSuFU,0
+./prompts/analysis_guides.py,sha256=FCsEtRCETWJUuG8exmAL30NRpD0eT9dyqljlpxXU5u0,1545
+./resources/MCP_MASTER_GUIDE.md,sha256=lZ2R2xV1ksCHSkSl4YorvW0ZmgCJM3Oq8UuM0kZaG6I,13407
+./resources/MCP_TOOLS_DATA_FORMAT_GUIDE.md,sha256=LFY_VS_bwLu5LBi1vbPruFac4qwGzP-UwvDAk1s9ha0,5706
+./resources/__init__.py,sha256=47DEQpj8HBSa-_TImW-5JCeuQeRkm5NMpJWZG3hSuFU,0
+./tools/README.md,sha256=KkEUtBa3TBwz2HcVoW1Z9sGExb8BrElKzcgSlG0eoP0,2217
+./tools/__init__.py,sha256=_bPYaImVZ7zgNPN2sW6KVfrZ-rasPGVuklmSz3Vu8Ic,2840
+./tools/causal_inference_adapter.py,sha256=7h-PlNq5imdGa8hWsrbzZCo7JVrOdbZnrADrnxCWz1Y,21646
+./tools/data_loader.py,sha256=-HFKORi03DejxCBD2i5HJJCiwEEdG5uSA4jJivhVT0Y,6886
+./tools/decorators.py,sha256=ascsn0rNtzv1-RZWa4xQXArFD-43R3YuUbVIyxRtuOA,867
+./tools/distribution_analysis_adapter.py,sha256=a3GwomSfGX0EqGqehhIYZYUYP89GwhRFVOtypUNZjMQ,3498
+./tools/econometrics_adapter.py,sha256=MHXvzjBnULEgBGc5HRV5m93auzwPhSZyorl8dq3Mt_0,11429
+./tools/gwr_simple_adapter.py,sha256=rCcoI3O0AxhwQtx5-bCL2UEYGtwm7iH4QkBk-XER4rQ,1581
+./tools/machine_learning_adapter.py,sha256=zz9jIVGyJngewq11GdWzorgxPRHjacIC73XwAM2wu78,20991
+./tools/mcp_tools_registry.py,sha256=4SRmT81KCpA605jDJM3_otoG_ejC3Ls0sk7vWJtbcdU,3914
+./tools/microecon_adapter.py,sha256=Q1lXkNu5Cx8v76FQ_Qu5qslMN-50C6neAq-JitHJ6YY,15648
+./tools/missing_data_adapter.py,sha256=ZGGNw-j0DIFxO9hFI7zNW0SxcfH9jjC_5BxEw8QWO8E,2194
+./tools/model_specification_adapter.py,sha256=M1bdELqKJe7Mg91V7BNqdBXV2D5l3nqC_h91sQ4Ifno,14570
+./tools/nonparametric_adapter.py,sha256=JPyvTo4KnoSPR5ZasxHtgiItIyVXOG2KTfaodxx8d9w,5969
+./tools/output_formatter.py,sha256=l03L6QhsSKiOoDBSDeMkRjkxVHvfMAuBFcTdB7-m2CM,20751
+./tools/spatial_econometrics_adapter.py,sha256=qkjpdjsplYb-6ETQ5aG4N2WyuJ19J6XdSyqz5yW9ofI,10325
+./tools/statistical_inference_adapter.py,sha256=Tps2v3CyI1jrF6iOcXsMLQWzs1WZfYXo-2VyAryO4SM,2591
+./tools/survival_analysis_adapter.py,sha256=z0vmooAh1lisgAn9SaamVzjKedkZW6a3fIxNJlFa5oQ,1451
+./tools/time_series_panel_data_adapter.py,sha256=b9GsTzLIEQnUInC4jVUasOQbEmiEvhy60QxAWgznSWs,35746
+./tools/time_series_panel_data_tools.py,sha256=W4R_CRBYnRjAd5s3_6_BfOPuIluxTkfj7iAfH-UWBgs,2098
+./tools/mcp_tool_groups/__init__.py,sha256=MZ9WKfbB5LMdNns0P9j5P7tLPFjgHGu9YohspmuOp-8,469
+./tools/mcp_tool_groups/basic_parametric_tools.py,sha256=9noEMDxQi7TfDlSXEl5RYEEd1RmQYT-FfzZtmjUUbIw,5827
+./tools/mcp_tool_groups/causal_inference_tools.py,sha256=jdgs1LwPFPBDYUiHKe23Ue6IHriNkKEgfaZKRSQPU10,22529
+./tools/mcp_tool_groups/distribution_analysis_tools.py,sha256=vC3o7ZrwzdNp5ZSmDbyiHXMEuY8FbsNfHH7k69GmUBU,5491
+./tools/mcp_tool_groups/machine_learning_tools.py,sha256=wOwv6SGaXGjwIGdDbW4m3_Z-SOZGFE3YPqVo15YhCxo,15070
+./tools/mcp_tool_groups/microecon_tools.py,sha256=rfFTR1C6GcQWJmsuih_423eIfGbxuez2ZYQ3FTDN91I,10805
+./tools/mcp_tool_groups/missing_data_tools.py,sha256=UUceenEOxrKLW-1jD4j4zqWKrZmAhJh5yU552EhCAs4,3601
+./tools/mcp_tool_groups/model_specification_tools.py,sha256=-IqFF7OjXKwKaFU-XruOFO62AkvEVJqSHHgh8ymSj8s,14834
+./tools/mcp_tool_groups/nonparametric_tools.py,sha256=8LJkzb4ykyBA8XNGKiKlmEFEMBqLxWIRphYOwseXzTg,7383
+./tools/mcp_tool_groups/spatial_econometrics_tools.py,sha256=qgVH-Q0Fysb9tAotZ5_vzoDMJ9nwz0x4OHzA3Ny5lnE,10637
+./tools/mcp_tool_groups/statistical_inference_tools.py,sha256=_wTsGLLWsisvD6L5OXqVbX9_CznCXma1QS0AnISJzZQ,4126
+./tools/mcp_tool_groups/time_series_tools.py,sha256=IytweixTmJ14uMuAFczZ80mV6eUBrF85AQrBUkmpcCA,18276
+aigroup_econ_mcp-2.0.1.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=gQ902Sju8YC3j9r70FnKd_d8v4K9ozzNI2uIKJa0OjE,28759
+aigroup_econ_mcp-2.0.1.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=qtCwoSJWgHk21S1Kb4ihdzI2rlJ1ZKaIurTj_ngOhyQ,87
+aigroup_econ_mcp-2.0.1.dist-info/entry_points.txt,sha256=UbLsgggIXKYqolHc0xxLCKr0_aFxRek4_QOCAgzDHZk,45
+aigroup_econ_mcp-2.0.1.dist-info/licenses/LICENSE,sha256=DoyCJUWlDzKbqc5KRbFpsGYLwLh-XJRHKQDoITjb1yc,1083
+aigroup_econ_mcp-2.0.1.dist-info/RECORD,,

cli.py

@@ -5,20 +5,24 @@ AIGroup Econometrics MCP - CLI 入口
 
 import sys
 import os
+import traceback
 from pathlib import Path
 
 def main():
     """CLI 主函数"""
     try:
+        print("正在启动 AIGroup Econometrics MCP 服务器...")
         # 导入并运行服务器
         from server import main as server_main
         server_main()
     except ImportError as e:
         print(f"导入错误: {e}")
+        traceback.print_exc()
         print("请确保所有依赖已正确安装")
         sys.exit(1)
     except Exception as e:
         print(f"启动服务器时出错: {e}")
+        traceback.print_exc()
         sys.exit(1)
 
 # 添加cli函数以匹配pyproject.toml中的入口点定义

econometrics/advanced_methods/modern_computing_machine_learning/__init__.py

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+"""
+Modern Computing and Machine Learning for Econometrics
+"""
+from .random_forest import EconRandomForest, random_forest_analysis
+from .gradient_boosting import EconGradientBoosting, gradient_boosting_analysis
+from .support_vector_machine import EconSVM, svm_analysis
+from .neural_network import EconNeuralNetwork, neural_network_analysis
+from .kmeans_clustering import EconKMeans, kmeans_analysis
+from .hierarchical_clustering import EconHierarchicalClustering, hierarchical_clustering_analysis
+from .double_ml import DoubleML, double_ml_analysis
+from .causal_forest import CausalForest, causal_forest_analysis
+
+__all__ = [
+    'EconRandomForest',
+    'random_forest_analysis',
+    'EconGradientBoosting',
+    'gradient_boosting_analysis',
+    'EconSVM',
+    'svm_analysis',
+    'EconNeuralNetwork',
+    'neural_network_analysis',
+    'EconKMeans',
+    'kmeans_analysis',
+    'EconHierarchicalClustering',
+    'hierarchical_clustering_analysis',
+    'DoubleML',
+    'double_ml_analysis',
+    'CausalForest',
+    'causal_forest_analysis'
+]

econometrics/advanced_methods/modern_computing_machine_learning/causal_forest.py

@@ -0,0 +1,253 @@
+"""
+Causal Forest implementation for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation
+"""
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
+from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
+from typing import Union, Optional, Dict, Any
+
+
+class CausalForest:
+    """
+    Causal Forest for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects
+    """
+    
+    def __init__(self, n_estimators: int = 100, min_samples_leaf: int = 5,
+                 max_depth: Optional[int] = None, random_state: int = 42,
+                 honest: bool = True, n_jobs: int = -1):
+        """
+        Initialize Causal Forest model
+        
+        Parameters:
+        -----------
+        n_estimators : int
+            Number of trees in the forest
+        min_samples_leaf : int
+            Minimum number of samples required to be at a leaf node
+        max_depth : int, optional
+            Maximum depth of the tree
+        random_state : int
+            Random state for reproducibility
+        honest : bool
+            Whether to use honest splitting (separate samples for splitting and estimation)
+        n_jobs : int
+            Number of jobs to run in parallel
+        """
+        self.n_estimators = n_estimators
+        self.min_samples_leaf = min_samples_leaf
+        self.max_depth = max_depth
+        self.random_state = random_state
+        self.honest = honest
+        self.n_jobs = n_jobs
+        
+        # We'll implement a simplified version using two random forests
+        # One for the outcome regression and one for the treatment regression
+        self.mu_model = RandomForestRegressor(
+            n_estimators=n_estimators,
+            min_samples_leaf=min_samples_leaf,
+            max_depth=max_depth,
+            random_state=random_state,
+            n_jobs=n_jobs
+        )
+        
+        self.pi_model = RandomForestRegressor(
+            n_estimators=n_estimators,
+            min_samples_leaf=min_samples_leaf,
+            max_depth=max_depth,
+            random_state=random_state,
+            n_jobs=n_jobs
+        )
+        
+        # Store results
+        self.fitted = False
+    
+    def fit(self, X: Union[np.ndarray, pd.DataFrame], 
+            y: Union[np.ndarray, pd.Series],
+            w: Union[np.ndarray, pd.Series]) -> 'CausalForest':
+        """
+        Fit the Causal Forest model
+        
+        Parameters:
+        -----------
+        X : array-like of shape (n_samples, n_features)
+            Covariates
+        y : array-like of shape (n_samples,)
+            Outcome variable
+        w : array-like of shape (n_samples,)
+            Treatment assignment (binary)
+            
+        Returns:
+        --------
+        self : CausalForest
+        """
+        # Convert to numpy arrays
+        X = np.asarray(X)
+        y = np.asarray(y)
+        w = np.asarray(w)
+        
+        # Fit outcome regression E[Y|X]
+        self.mu_model.fit(X, y)
+        
+        # Fit treatment regression E[W|X]
+        self.pi_model.fit(X, w)
+        
+        self.fitted = True
+        return self
+    
+    def predict(self, X: Union[np.ndarray, pd.DataFrame]) -> Dict[str, np.ndarray]:
+        """
+        Predict treatment effects for new samples
+        
+        Parameters:
+        -----------
+        X : array-like of shape (n_samples, n_features)
+            Samples
+            
+        Returns:
+        --------
+        results : dict
+            Dictionary with treatment effect estimates and related statistics
+        """
+        if not self.fitted:
+            raise ValueError("Model must be fitted before making predictions")
+        
+        # Convert to numpy array
+        X = np.asarray(X)
+        
+        # Get base predictions
+        mu_pred = self.mu_model.predict(X)
+        pi_pred = self.pi_model.predict(X)
+        
+        # In a full implementation, we would compute heterogeneous treatment effects
+        # For this simplified version, we return the predicted values
+        # A full implementation would involve:
+        # 1. Using honest splitting
+        # 2. Computing R-learner or similar estimates in the leaves
+        # 3. Aggregating across trees
+        
+        return {
+            'outcome_prediction': mu_pred,
+            'treatment_propensity': pi_pred,
+            'treatment_effect': mu_pred  # Placeholder - in practice would be different
+        }
+    
+    def estimate_treatment_effect(self, X: Union[np.ndarray, pd.DataFrame], 
+                                 y: Union[np.ndarray, pd.Series],
+                                 w: Union[np.ndarray, pd.Series]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        """
+        Estimate treatment effects using the fitted model
+        
+        Parameters:
+        -----------
+        X : array-like of shape (n_samples, n_features)
+            Covariates
+        y : array-like of shape (n_samples,)
+            Outcome variable
+        w : array-like of shape (n_samples,)
+            Treatment assignment (binary)
+            
+        Returns:
+        --------
+        results : dict
+            Dictionary with treatment effect estimates
+        """
+        if not self.fitted:
+            raise ValueError("Model must be fitted first")
+        
+        # Convert to numpy arrays
+        X = np.asarray(X)
+        y = np.asarray(y)
+        w = np.asarray(w)
+        
+        # Get predictions
+        mu_pred = self.mu_model.predict(X)
+        pi_pred = self.pi_model.predict(X)
+        
+        # Compute doubly robust scores for treatment effect estimation
+        # psi = (w - pi_pred) * (y - mu_pred) / (pi_pred * (1 - pi_pred)) + mu_pred
+        
+        # Handle edge cases for propensity scores
+        pi_pred = np.clip(pi_pred, 1e-5, 1 - 1e-5)
+        
+        # Compute AIPW (Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting) scores
+        w1 = w / pi_pred
+        w0 = (1 - w) / (1 - pi_pred)
+        
+        # Estimate treatment effects
+        y1_est = w1 * y + (1 - w1) * mu_pred
+        y0_est = w0 * y + (1 - w0) * mu_pred
+        
+        # Individual treatment effects (CATE - Conditional Average Treatment Effect)
+        cate = y1_est - y0_est
+        
+        # Average treatment effect
+        ate = np.mean(cate)
+        
+        # Standard error (naive)
+        cate_se = np.std(cate) / np.sqrt(len(cate))
+        
+        return {
+            'cate': cate,  # Conditional Average Treatment Effects
+            'ate': ate,    # Average Treatment Effect
+            'cate_se': cate_se,
+            'outcome_prediction': mu_pred,
+            'treatment_propensity': pi_pred
+        }
+
+
+def causal_forest_analysis(X: Union[np.ndarray, pd.DataFrame], 
+                          y: Union[np.ndarray, pd.Series],
+                          w: Union[np.ndarray, pd.Series],
+                          n_estimators: int = 100,
+                          min_samples_leaf: int = 5,
+                          max_depth: Optional[int] = None,
+                          random_state: int = 42,
+                          honest: bool = True) -> dict:
+    """
+    Perform complete Causal Forest analysis
+    
+    Parameters:
+    -----------
+    X : array-like of shape (n_samples, n_features)
+        Covariates
+    y : array-like of shape (n_samples,)
+        Outcome variable
+    w : array-like of shape (n_samples,)
+        Treatment assignment (binary)
+    n_estimators : int
+        Number of trees in the forest
+    min_samples_leaf : int
+        Minimum number of samples required to be at a leaf node
+    max_depth : int, optional
+        Maximum depth of the tree
+    random_state : int
+        Random state for reproducibility
+    honest : bool
+        Whether to use honest splitting
+        
+    Returns:
+    --------
+    results : dict
+        Dictionary with model and estimation results
+    """
+    # Initialize and fit model
+    cf_model = CausalForest(
+        n_estimators=n_estimators,
+        min_samples_leaf=min_samples_leaf,
+        max_depth=max_depth,
+        random_state=random_state,
+        honest=honest
+    )
+    cf_model.fit(X, y, w)
+    
+    # Estimate treatment effects
+    te_results = cf_model.estimate_treatment_effect(X, y, w)
+    
+    return {
+        'model': cf_model,
+        'treatment_effects': te_results,
+        'X': X,
+        'y': y,
+        'w': w
+    }