riksdagsmonitor 0.8.14 → 0.8.15

package/dist/scripts/analysis-framework/political-risk-assessment.js

@@ -0,0 +1,656 @@
+/**
+ * @module analysis-framework/political-risk-assessment
+ * @description Political risk scoring engine implementing Likelihood × Impact
+ * risk assessment for parliamentary documents.
+ *
+ * Inspired by ISMS Risk_Assessment_Methodology.md (Quantitative risk scoring),
+ * adapted for political intelligence analysis of Swedish parliamentary context.
+ *
+ * ## Risk Categories
+ * - Coalition Stability — Government collapse or realignment risk
+ * - Policy Implementation — Policy failure or stalling risk
+ * - Democratic Process — Threat to democratic norms and institutions
+ * - Economic Policy — Fiscal/monetary policy decision risk
+ * - Social Cohesion — Societal division or unrest risk
+ * - International Standing — Sweden's international position risk
+ *
+ * ## Scoring Formula
+ * Risk Score = likelihood_probability × impact_weight × 10
+ * With current scales (almost-certain=0.90, transformative=10), the
+ * practical maximum is 90.  Values are clamped to [0, 100] for safety.
+ *
+ * The engine is **pure** — deterministic for the same input, no side effects.
+ *
+ * @author Hack23 AB
+ * @license Apache-2.0
+ */
+import { LIKELIHOOD_PROBABILITY, IMPACT_WEIGHT, } from './methodology-types.js';
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Keyword banks per risk category
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+/** Keywords signalling coalition stability risk */
+const COALITION_RISK_KEYWORDS = [
+    'tidöavtal', 'samarbetspartier', 'sd-stöd', 'partiledare',
+    'oenighet', 'spricka', 'misstroendevotum', 'misstroende',
+    'koalitionskris', 'budgetomröstning', 'budgetkompromiss',
+    'coalition', 'confidence vote', 'no-confidence', 'government crisis',
+];
+/** Keywords signalling policy implementation risk */
+const POLICY_RISK_KEYWORDS = [
+    'remissrunda', 'parlamentarisk beredning', 'utredning', 'betänkande',
+    'genomförande', 'implementering', 'lagstiftningsprocess',
+    'opposition blockerar', 'riksdagen avslår', 'avslag',
+    'implementation', 'legislative process', 'parliamentary approval', 'blocked',
+];
+/** Keywords signalling democratic process risk */
+const DEMOCRATIC_RISK_KEYWORDS = [
+    'grundlag', 'konstitutionsutskott', 'KU-granskning', 'demokrati',
+    'offentlighetsprincipen', 'transparens', 'yttrandefrihet', 'pressfrihet',
+    'vallag', 'rösträtt', 'minoritetsskydd',
+    'constitutional', 'democratic', 'transparency', 'freedom of press',
+    'voting rights', 'minority rights', 'rule of law', 'rättsstat',
+];
+/** Keywords signalling economic policy risk */
+const ECONOMIC_RISK_KEYWORDS = [
+    'statsbudget', 'budgetproposition', 'skatt', 'inflation', 'ränta',
+    'konjunktur', 'BNP', 'statsskuld', 'underskott', 'surplus',
+    'miljoner', 'miljarder', 'penningpolitik', 'riksbanken',
+    'fiscal', 'monetary', 'GDP', 'debt', 'deficit', 'tax', 'interest rate',
+];
+/** Keywords signalling social cohesion risk */
+const SOCIAL_RISK_KEYWORDS = [
+    'segregation', 'diskriminering', 'jämlikhet', 'ojämlikhet',
+    'välfärd', 'socialbidrag', 'fattigdom', 'integration',
+    'invandring', 'flyktingar', 'social oro', 'strejk',
+    'discrimination', 'equality', 'welfare', 'poverty', 'social unrest',
+    'migration', 'integration', 'vulnerable groups',
+];
+/** Keywords signalling international standing risk */
+const INTERNATIONAL_RISK_KEYWORDS = [
+    'NATO', 'FN', 'nordiskt samarbete', 'utrikespolitik',
+    'handelsavtal', 'sanktioner', 'diplomatisk', 'ambassad',
+    'internationella åtaganden', 'EU-direktiv', 'EU-förordning',
+    'treaty', 'international obligations', 'foreign policy', 'sanctions',
+    'diplomacy', 'Nordic cooperation', 'European Union',
+];
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Likelihood assessment helpers
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+/**
+ * Normalize defection probability to 0–1 range.
+ * Accepts both fractional (0.35) and percent-style (35) values.
+ * Defensively handles non-finite and negative inputs.
+ */
+function normalizeDefectionProbability(raw) {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(raw) || raw <= 0)
+        return 0;
+    if (raw <= 1)
+        return raw;
+    const percent = raw / 100;
+    return percent > 1 ? 1 : percent;
+}
+/**
+ * Derive normalized document type from RawDocument.
+ * Falls back from `doktyp` to `documentType`, lowercased and trimmed.
+ */
+function getDocType(doc) {
+    return String(doc.doktyp ?? doc.documentType ?? '').toLowerCase().trim();
+}
+/** Committees with elevated social cohesion risk relevance */
+const SOCIAL_COHESION_COMMITTEES = new Set(['SoU', 'SfU', 'AU']);
+/** Committees with elevated social impact relevance */
+const SOCIAL_IMPACT_COMMITTEES = new Set(['SoU', 'SfU']);
+function getDocText(doc) {
+    const fullContentText = doc.fullContent
+        ? doc.fullContent.replace(/<[^>]+>/g, ' ')
+        : undefined;
+    return [
+        doc.titel, doc.rubrik, doc.undertitel, doc.title,
+        doc.summary, doc.notis, doc.fullText, fullContentText,
+    ].filter(Boolean).join(' ');
+}
+function escapeRegExp(input) {
+    return input.replace(/[.*+?^${}()|[\]\\]/g, '\\$&');
+}
+function keywordMatches(textLower, keyword) {
+    // Use word-boundary matching for short/uppercase abbreviations to avoid
+    // false positives (e.g. 'EU' matching inside unrelated words).
+    const isShortAbbreviation = /^[A-ZÅÄÖ]{2,4}$/.test(keyword);
+    if (isShortAbbreviation) {
+        const pattern = new RegExp(`\\b${escapeRegExp(keyword.toLowerCase())}\\b`, 'i');
+        return pattern.test(textLower);
+    }
+    return textLower.includes(keyword.toLowerCase());
+}
+function containsAny(text, keywords) {
+    const lower = text.toLowerCase();
+    return keywords.some(kw => keywordMatches(lower, kw));
+}
+function countMatches(text, keywords) {
+    const lower = text.toLowerCase();
+    return keywords.filter(kw => keywordMatches(lower, kw)).length;
+}
+/**
+ * Assess coalition stability likelihood based on CIA data and document signals.
+ */
+function assessCoalitionLikelihood(doc, cia) {
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    const keywordMatches = countMatches(text, COALITION_RISK_KEYWORDS);
+    const stability = cia?.coalitionStability?.stabilityScore;
+    const margin = cia?.coalitionStability?.majorityMargin;
+    // Very unstable coalition + crisis keywords → almost certain
+    if (stability !== undefined && stability < 30 && keywordMatches >= 2)
+        return 'almost-certain';
+    // Unstable coalition with some signals → likely
+    if (stability !== undefined && stability < 50 && keywordMatches >= 1)
+        return 'likely';
+    // Thin majority + any signal → possible
+    if (margin !== undefined && margin <= 2 && keywordMatches >= 1)
+        return 'possible';
+    // Document mentions coalition dynamics → unlikely
+    if (keywordMatches >= 1)
+        return 'unlikely';
+    return 'rare';
+}
+/**
+ * Assess policy implementation likelihood based on document type and content.
+ */
+function assessPolicyImplementationLikelihood(doc, cia) {
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    const keywordMatches = countMatches(text, POLICY_RISK_KEYWORDS);
+    const docType = getDocType(doc);
+    // Committee reports are high-signal implementation inputs by default
+    if (docType === 'bet')
+        return keywordMatches >= 1 ? 'almost-certain' : 'likely';
+    // Government propositions — assess implementation risk based on obstruction level
+    if (docType === 'prop') {
+        // When CIA context is absent, fall back to keyword-based assessment
+        // instead of hard-coding a default denial rate that could bias scores.
+        if (cia?.overallMotionDenialRate === undefined) {
+            return keywordMatches >= 1 ? 'possible' : 'unlikely';
+        }
+        const motionDenialRate = cia.overallMotionDenialRate;
+        // High denial rate means opposition is being blocked → government faces less obstruction
+        // → lower risk of policy failure. Low denial rate means opposition motions succeed
+        // more often → higher risk that government policies stall.
+        if (motionDenialRate > 90)
+            return 'rare';
+        if (motionDenialRate < 50)
+            return 'likely';
+        // Denial rate in [50, 90] — moderate obstruction level → possible risk
+        return 'possible';
+    }
+    // Interpellations signal policy criticism
+    if (docType === 'ip' && keywordMatches >= 1)
+        return 'possible';
+    if (keywordMatches >= 2)
+        return 'possible';
+    if (keywordMatches >= 1)
+        return 'unlikely';
+    return 'rare';
+}
+/**
+ * Assess democratic process risk likelihood.
+ */
+function assessDemocraticProcessLikelihood(doc) {
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    const keywordMatches = countMatches(text, DEMOCRATIC_RISK_KEYWORDS);
+    if (doc.organ === 'KU')
+        return 'almost-certain'; // KU documents always involve democratic oversight
+    if (keywordMatches >= 3)
+        return 'likely';
+    if (keywordMatches >= 2)
+        return 'possible';
+    if (keywordMatches >= 1)
+        return 'unlikely';
+    return 'rare';
+}
+/**
+ * Assess economic policy risk likelihood.
+ */
+function assessEconomicPolicyLikelihood(doc, cia) {
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    const keywordMatches = countMatches(text, ECONOMIC_RISK_KEYWORDS);
+    if (doc.organ === 'FiU') {
+        if (keywordMatches >= 2)
+            return 'almost-certain';
+        return 'likely';
+    }
+    if (keywordMatches >= 3)
+        return 'likely';
+    if (keywordMatches >= 2)
+        return 'possible';
+    if (keywordMatches >= 1)
+        return 'unlikely';
+    // High instability makes economic risk more likely even without direct signals
+    if (cia?.coalitionStability?.stabilityScore !== undefined && cia.coalitionStability.stabilityScore < 40) {
+        return 'unlikely';
+    }
+    return 'rare';
+}
+/**
+ * Assess social cohesion risk likelihood.
+ */
+function assessSocialCohesionLikelihood(doc) {
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    const keywordMatches = countMatches(text, SOCIAL_RISK_KEYWORDS);
+    const committee = doc.organ ?? '';
+    if (SOCIAL_COHESION_COMMITTEES.has(committee) && keywordMatches >= 2)
+        return 'likely';
+    if (keywordMatches >= 3)
+        return 'likely';
+    if (keywordMatches >= 2)
+        return 'possible';
+    if (keywordMatches >= 1)
+        return 'unlikely';
+    return 'rare';
+}
+/**
+ * Assess international standing risk likelihood.
+ */
+function assessInternationalLikelihood(doc) {
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    const keywordMatches = countMatches(text, INTERNATIONAL_RISK_KEYWORDS);
+    if (doc.organ === 'UU') {
+        if (keywordMatches >= 2)
+            return 'almost-certain';
+        return 'likely';
+    }
+    if (doc.organ === 'FöU' && keywordMatches >= 1)
+        return 'likely';
+    if (keywordMatches >= 3)
+        return 'likely';
+    if (keywordMatches >= 2)
+        return 'possible';
+    if (keywordMatches >= 1)
+        return 'unlikely';
+    return 'rare';
+}
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Impact assessment helpers
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+function assessCoalitionImpact(doc, cia) {
+    const stability = cia?.coalitionStability?.stabilityScore;
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    const hasExplosiveContent = containsAny(text, ['misstroendevotum', 'misstroende', 'no-confidence']);
+    if (hasExplosiveContent)
+        return 'transformative';
+    if (stability !== undefined && stability < 30)
+        return 'critical';
+    if (stability !== undefined && stability < 50)
+        return 'high';
+    return 'moderate';
+}
+function assessPolicyImpact(doc) {
+    const docType = getDocType(doc);
+    if (docType === 'prop' || docType === 'bet')
+        return 'high';
+    if (docType === 'sou' || docType === 'skr')
+        return 'moderate';
+    return 'low';
+}
+function assessDemocraticImpact(doc) {
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    if (containsAny(text, ['grundlag', 'konstitution', 'constitutional', 'fundamental law'])) {
+        return 'transformative';
+    }
+    if (doc.organ === 'KU')
+        return 'critical';
+    return 'high';
+}
+function assessEconomicImpact(doc) {
+    const docType = getDocType(doc);
+    if (doc.organ === 'FiU' && (docType === 'bet' || docType === 'prop'))
+        return 'transformative';
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    if (containsAny(text, ['statsbudget', 'budgetproposition', 'BNP', 'GDP']))
+        return 'critical';
+    if (containsAny(text, ECONOMIC_RISK_KEYWORDS))
+        return 'high';
+    return 'moderate';
+}
+function assessSocialImpact(doc) {
+    const committee = doc.organ ?? '';
+    if (SOCIAL_IMPACT_COMMITTEES.has(committee) && getDocType(doc) === 'prop')
+        return 'high';
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    if (containsAny(text, ['segregation', 'diskriminering', 'discrimination', 'poverty', 'fattigdom']))
+        return 'high';
+    return 'moderate';
+}
+function assessInternationalImpact(doc) {
+    if (doc.organ === 'UU' || doc.organ === 'FöU')
+        return 'high';
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    if (containsAny(text, ['NATO', 'EU-direktiv', 'internationella åtaganden', 'treaty obligations']))
+        return 'high';
+    return 'moderate';
+}
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Evidence extraction
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+function extractEvidence(doc, category, cia) {
+    const evidence = [];
+    const docId = doc.dok_id;
+    if (docId) {
+        evidence.push(`Document: ${docId} (${getDocType(doc) || 'unknown'} in ${doc.organ ?? 'unknown'})`);
+    }
+    if (doc.speeches && doc.speeches.length > 0) {
+        const relevantSpeeches = doc.speeches
+            .filter(s => s.text && s.text.length > 0)
+            .slice(0, 2);
+        for (const speech of relevantSpeeches) {
+            if (speech.talare) {
+                evidence.push(`Speech by ${speech.talare} (${speech.parti ?? 'unknown party'})`);
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    // Category-specific evidence signals
+    switch (category) {
+        case 'coalition-stability':
+            if (doc.parti)
+                evidence.push(`Party affiliation: ${doc.parti}`);
+            if (cia?.coalitionStability?.stabilityScore !== undefined) {
+                evidence.push(`CIA coalition stability score: ${cia.coalitionStability.stabilityScore}`);
+            }
+            if (cia?.coalitionStability?.majorityMargin !== undefined) {
+                evidence.push(`CIA majority margin: ${cia.coalitionStability.majorityMargin}`);
+            }
+            if (cia?.coalitionStability?.defectionProbability !== undefined) {
+                const rawDP = cia.coalitionStability.defectionProbability;
+                const normDP = normalizeDefectionProbability(rawDP);
+                evidence.push(`CIA defection probability: ${normDP} (raw=${rawDP})`);
+            }
+            break;
+        case 'democratic-process':
+            if (doc.organ === 'KU')
+                evidence.push('Constitutional Committee (KU) involvement');
+            break;
+        case 'economic-policy':
+            if (doc.organ === 'FiU')
+                evidence.push('Finance Committee (FiU) involvement');
+            break;
+        case 'international-standing':
+            if (doc.organ === 'UU')
+                evidence.push('Foreign Affairs Committee (UU) involvement');
+            if (doc.organ === 'FöU')
+                evidence.push('Defence Committee (FöU) involvement');
+            break;
+        default:
+            break;
+    }
+    const coalitionStability = cia?.coalitionStability;
+    const hasCoalitionContext = coalitionStability !== undefined &&
+        (coalitionStability.stabilityScore !== undefined ||
+            coalitionStability.majorityMargin !== undefined ||
+            coalitionStability.defectionProbability !== undefined);
+    if (category !== 'coalition-stability' && hasCoalitionContext) {
+        const rawDP = coalitionStability.defectionProbability;
+        const normDP = rawDP !== undefined ? normalizeDefectionProbability(rawDP) : undefined;
+        const stabilityDisplay = coalitionStability.stabilityScore ?? 'N/A';
+        const majorityMarginDisplay = coalitionStability.majorityMargin ?? 'N/A';
+        evidence.push(`CIA coalition context: stability=${stabilityDisplay}, majorityMargin=${majorityMarginDisplay}, defectionProbability=${normDP ?? 'N/A'}`);
+    }
+    return evidence;
+}
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Mitigating / escalating factors
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+function getMitigatingFactors(category, cia) {
+    const factors = [];
+    const stability = cia?.coalitionStability?.stabilityScore;
+    switch (category) {
+        case 'coalition-stability':
+            if (stability !== undefined && stability >= 70) {
+                factors.push('Coalition stability score is high — low defection risk');
+            }
+            if (cia?.coalitionStability?.majorityMargin !== undefined && cia.coalitionStability.majorityMargin > 5) {
+                factors.push('Comfortable parliamentary majority reduces collapse risk');
+            }
+            // Always include a baseline mitigating factor
+            factors.push('Swedish constitutional norms require democratic transitions through electoral process');
+            break;
+        case 'policy-implementation':
+            if (cia?.overallMotionDenialRate !== undefined && cia.overallMotionDenialRate > 95) {
+                factors.push('Government controls parliament — high policy implementation success rate');
+            }
+            factors.push('Riksdag committee scrutiny provides quality assurance for legislation');
+            factors.push('Lagrådet (Council on Legislation) reviews government proposals for legal compliance');
+            break;
+        case 'democratic-process':
+            factors.push('Swedish constitutional review process (Lagrådet) provides safeguard');
+            factors.push('Riksdag committee scrutiny provides democratic oversight');
+            break;
+        case 'economic-policy':
+            factors.push('Riksbank independent mandate provides monetary policy buffer');
+            factors.push('EU fiscal frameworks constrain extreme fiscal departures');
+            break;
+        case 'social-cohesion':
+            factors.push('Swedish welfare state provides social safety net baseline');
+            factors.push('Strong civil society organisations monitor social policy impacts');
+            break;
+        case 'international-standing':
+            factors.push('NATO membership provides defence collective security guarantee');
+            factors.push('EU membership binds Sweden to multilateral obligations and norms');
+            break;
+    }
+    return factors;
+}
+function getEscalatingFactors(category, cia) {
+    const factors = [];
+    const stability = cia?.coalitionStability?.stabilityScore;
+    switch (category) {
+        case 'coalition-stability':
+            if (stability !== undefined && stability < 40) {
+                factors.push('Coalition stability score is low — elevated defection and collapse risk');
+            }
+            {
+                const rawDefectionProbability = cia?.coalitionStability?.defectionProbability;
+                const normalizedDefectionProbability = rawDefectionProbability !== undefined
+                    ? normalizeDefectionProbability(rawDefectionProbability)
+                    : undefined;
+                if (normalizedDefectionProbability !== undefined && normalizedDefectionProbability > 0.2) {
+                    factors.push('High defection probability detected in CIA coalition data');
+                }
+            }
+            // Always include a baseline escalating factor
+            factors.push('Parliamentary majority remains structurally vulnerable to individual defections over time');
+            break;
+        case 'policy-implementation':
+            if (stability !== undefined && stability < 50) {
+                factors.push('Unstable coalition may fail to pass legislation through parliament');
+            }
+            factors.push('Opposition coordination can delay or block legislative priorities');
+            break;
+        case 'democratic-process':
+            factors.push('Media narrative framing and public perception can accelerate democratic erosion');
+            factors.push('Social media amplification of anti-democratic rhetoric poses systemic risk');
+            break;
+        case 'economic-policy':
+            factors.push('Global economic uncertainty amplifies domestic policy risk');
+            factors.push('Coalition budget disagreements may block timely fiscal adjustments');
+            break;
+        case 'social-cohesion':
+            factors.push('Polarising political rhetoric elevates social division risk');
+            factors.push('Unequal distribution of policy costs can accelerate social fragmentation');
+            break;
+        case 'international-standing':
+            factors.push('Domestic political instability signals unpredictability to international partners');
+            factors.push('Divergence from EU/NATO positions increases geopolitical exposure');
+            break;
+    }
+    return factors;
+}
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Confidence assessment
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+function assessConfidence(doc, cia) {
+    let signals = 0;
+    if (doc.fullText || doc.fullContent)
+        signals += 2;
+    if (doc.summary || doc.notis)
+        signals += 1;
+    if (doc.speeches && doc.speeches.length > 0)
+        signals += 1;
+    if (cia !== undefined)
+        signals += 2;
+    if (signals >= 4)
+        return 'high';
+    if (signals >= 2)
+        return 'medium';
+    return 'low';
+}
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Risk score computation
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+/**
+ * Compute a risk score from likelihood and impact.
+ *
+ * Formula: likelihood_probability × impact_weight × 10
+ * With current scales (almost-certain=0.90, transformative=10), the
+ * practical maximum is 90.  Values are clamped to [0, 100] for safety.
+ */
+export function computeRiskScore(likelihood, impact) {
+    const probability = LIKELIHOOD_PROBABILITY[likelihood];
+    const weight = IMPACT_WEIGHT[impact];
+    return Math.min(100, Math.max(0, Math.round(probability * weight * 10)));
+}
+/**
+ * Derive priority tier from risk score.
+ */
+export function deriveRiskPriority(score) {
+    if (score >= 70)
+        return 'critical';
+    if (score >= 50)
+        return 'high';
+    if (score >= 30)
+        return 'medium';
+    return 'low';
+}
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Per-category assessment
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+function assessSingleCategory(doc, cia, category) {
+    let likelihood;
+    let impact;
+    switch (category) {
+        case 'coalition-stability':
+            likelihood = assessCoalitionLikelihood(doc, cia);
+            impact = assessCoalitionImpact(doc, cia);
+            break;
+        case 'policy-implementation':
+            likelihood = assessPolicyImplementationLikelihood(doc, cia);
+            impact = assessPolicyImpact(doc);
+            break;
+        case 'democratic-process':
+            likelihood = assessDemocraticProcessLikelihood(doc);
+            impact = assessDemocraticImpact(doc);
+            break;
+        case 'economic-policy':
+            likelihood = assessEconomicPolicyLikelihood(doc, cia);
+            impact = assessEconomicImpact(doc);
+            break;
+        case 'social-cohesion':
+            likelihood = assessSocialCohesionLikelihood(doc);
+            impact = assessSocialImpact(doc);
+            break;
+        case 'international-standing':
+            likelihood = assessInternationalLikelihood(doc);
+            impact = assessInternationalImpact(doc);
+            break;
+    }
+    const riskScore = computeRiskScore(likelihood, impact);
+    const priority = deriveRiskPriority(riskScore);
+    const confidence = assessConfidence(doc, cia);
+    return {
+        riskCategory: category,
+        likelihood,
+        impact,
+        riskScore,
+        priority,
+        evidence: extractEvidence(doc, category, cia),
+        confidence,
+        mitigatingFactors: getMitigatingFactors(category, cia),
+        escalatingFactors: getEscalatingFactors(category, cia),
+    };
+}
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// All categories
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+const ALL_RISK_CATEGORIES = [
+    'coalition-stability',
+    'policy-implementation',
+    'democratic-process',
+    'economic-policy',
+    'social-cohesion',
+    'international-standing',
+];
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Composite risk score
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+/**
+ * Compute a composite risk score across all six categories.
+ * Weighted by priority tier: critical×1.0, high×0.7, medium×0.5, low×0.3.
+ */
+function computeCompositeRiskScore(assessments) {
+    if (assessments.length === 0)
+        return 0;
+    const priorityWeights = {
+        critical: 1.0, high: 0.7, medium: 0.5, low: 0.3,
+    };
+    const totalWeight = assessments.reduce((sum, a) => sum + (priorityWeights[a.priority] ?? 0.3), 0);
+    const weightedSum = assessments.reduce((sum, a) => sum + a.riskScore * (priorityWeights[a.priority] ?? 0.3), 0);
+    return Math.min(100, Math.max(0, Math.round(weightedSum / totalWeight)));
+}
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Public API
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+/**
+ * Assess political risk for a parliamentary document across all 6 risk categories.
+ *
+ * Applies the ISMS-inspired Likelihood × Impact methodology to each category
+ * and returns a complete risk profile with composite scoring and priority ranking.
+ *
+ * The function is **pure** — deterministic for the same input, no side effects.
+ *
+ * @param doc  - The parliamentary document to assess
+ * @param cia  - Optional CIA context (coalition stability data improves accuracy)
+ * @returns    Complete political risk profile with per-category assessments
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const profile = assessPoliticalRisk(doc, ciaContext);
+ * console.log(profile.overallRiskLevel);      // 'critical' | 'high' | 'medium' | 'low'
+ * console.log(profile.compositeRiskScore);    // 0–100
+ * console.log(profile.dominantRisk);          // highest-priority category
+ * ```
+ */
+export function assessPoliticalRisk(doc, cia) {
+    const riskAssessments = ALL_RISK_CATEGORIES.map(category => assessSingleCategory(doc, cia, category));
+    // Sort by risk score descending to identify dominant risk
+    const sorted = [...riskAssessments].sort((a, b) => b.riskScore - a.riskScore);
+    const dominantRisk = sorted[0]?.riskCategory ?? 'policy-implementation';
+    const compositeRiskScore = computeCompositeRiskScore(riskAssessments);
+    const overallRiskLevel = deriveRiskPriority(compositeRiskScore);
+    return {
+        riskAssessments,
+        dominantRisk,
+        compositeRiskScore,
+        overallRiskLevel,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Assess political risk for a specific category only.
+ *
+ * Use when you need a targeted assessment for a single risk dimension
+ * rather than the full 6-category profile.
+ *
+ * @param doc      - The parliamentary document to assess
+ * @param category - The specific risk category to assess
+ * @param cia      - Optional CIA context
+ * @returns        Risk assessment for the specified category
+ */
+export function assessSingleRiskCategory(doc, category, cia) {
+    return assessSingleCategory(doc, cia, category);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=political-risk-assessment.js.map