riksdagsmonitor 0.8.14 → 0.8.15

package/dist/scripts/analysis-framework/political-classification.js

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+/**
+ * @module analysis-framework/political-classification
+ * @description Political classification engine implementing 7-dimension scoring
+ * for parliamentary documents.
+ *
+ * Inspired by ISMS CLASSIFICATION.md (Impact Analysis Matrix — Confidentiality,
+ * Integrity, Availability levels), adapted for political intelligence analysis.
+ *
+ * ## Dimensions
+ * | ISMS Dimension          | Political Dimension              |
+ * |-------------------------|----------------------------------|
+ * | Confidentiality         | Public Interest Sensitivity      |
+ * | Integrity               | Democratic Integrity Impact      |
+ * | Availability            | Policy Urgency                   |
+ * | Financial Impact        | Economic Impact                  |
+ * | Operational Impact      | Governance Impact                |
+ * | Reputational Impact     | Political Capital Impact         |
+ * | Regulatory Impact       | Legislative Impact               |
+ *
+ * The engine is **pure** — deterministic for the same input, no side effects.
+ *
+ * @author Hack23 AB
+ * @license Apache-2.0
+ */
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Keyword banks
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+/** Keywords indicating explosive public interest / political controversy */
+const EXPLOSIVE_KEYWORDS = [
+    'tidöavtal', 'misstroende', 'misstroendevotum', 'regeringskris',
+    'koalitionskris', 'oenighet', 'spricka', 'uteslutning', 'partiledare',
+    'skandal', 'korruption', 'mutor', 'fusk', 'avgå', 'avgångskrav',
+    'riksrätt', 'konstitutionsbrott', 'olaglig', 'brottslig',
+    'crisis', 'scandal', 'corruption', 'resignation', 'impeachment',
+];
+/** Keywords indicating politically sensitive content */
+const SENSITIVE_KEYWORDS = [
+    'invandring', 'migration', 'flyktingar', 'asyl', 'integration',
+    'skattehöjning', 'skattesänkning', 'välfärdsreform', 'sjukvård',
+    'NATO', 'försvar', 'militär', 'beredskap', 'säkerhetspolitik',
+    'klimat', 'energi', 'kärnkraft', 'abort', 'dödshjälp',
+    'kriminalitet', 'gängkriminalitet', 'polisen', 'rättsstat',
+    'immigration', 'defense', 'security', 'climate', 'nuclear', 'crime',
+];
+/** Keywords signalling immediate constitutional or democratic urgency */
+const CONSTITUTIONAL_KEYWORDS = [
+    'grundlag', 'regeringsform', 'riksdagsordning', 'vallag', 'folkomröstning',
+    'konstitution', 'konstitutionell', 'grundlagsskyddad', 'fri- och rättigheter',
+    'constitutional', 'fundamental law', 'referendum', 'rights',
+];
+/** Keywords indicating legislative (riksdag-level) impact */
+const LEGISLATIVE_KEYWORDS = [
+    'riksdagen beslutar', 'proposition', 'lagstiftning', 'lag om',
+    'ändring i lagen', 'lagändring', 'ny lag', 'lagens tillämpning',
+    'parliament decides', 'legislation', 'law amendment', 'new law',
+];
+/** Keywords indicating regulatory/ordinance level impact */
+const REGULATORY_KEYWORDS = [
+    'förordning', 'föreskrift', 'myndighetsföreskrift', 'reglering',
+    'regulation', 'ordinance', 'regulatory', 'rule change',
+];
+/** Keywords for economic/fiscal significance */
+const ECONOMIC_HIGH_KEYWORDS = [
+    'statsbudget', 'budgetproposition', 'ramproposition', 'statsskuld',
+    'BNP', 'konjunktur', 'inflation', 'ränta', 'riksbanken',
+    'skatteintäkter', 'skatteuttag', 'anslag', 'miljarder',
+    'GDP', 'budget', 'fiscal', 'monetary', 'inflation', 'interest rate', 'billions',
+];
+/** Committees with systemic governance impact */
+const SYSTEMIC_GOVERNANCE_COMMITTEES = new Set(['FiU', 'KU', 'FöU', 'UU']);
+/** Document types that are at least standard public-interest sensitivity */
+const STANDARD_SENSITIVITY_TYPES = new Set(['prop', 'bet', 'sou', 'prot']);
+/** Committees with significant governance impact */
+const SIGNIFICANT_GOVERNANCE_COMMITTEES = new Set(['JuU', 'SoU', 'SfU', 'AU', 'MJU', 'UbU', 'SkU']);
+/** Document types with immediate policy urgency */
+const IMMEDIATE_URGENCY_TYPES = new Set(['bet', 'prot']);
+/** Document types with short-term policy urgency */
+const SHORT_TERM_URGENCY_TYPES = new Set(['prop', 'ip', 'sou']);
+/** Document types with medium-term policy urgency */
+const MEDIUM_TERM_URGENCY_TYPES = new Set(['skr', 'ds', 'dir', 'mot']);
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Numeric dimension value maps (for score computation)
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+const SENSITIVITY_SCORES = {
+    explosive: 100, sensitive: 70, standard: 40, routine: 10,
+};
+const DEMOCRATIC_SCORES = {
+    critical: 100, significant: 70, moderate: 40, minor: 10,
+};
+const URGENCY_SCORES = {
+    immediate: 100, 'short-term': 70, 'medium-term': 40, 'long-term': 10,
+};
+const ECONOMIC_SCORES = {
+    transformative: 100, major: 70, moderate: 40, minimal: 10,
+};
+const GOVERNANCE_SCORES = {
+    systemic: 100, significant: 70, procedural: 40, routine: 10,
+};
+const POLITICAL_CAPITAL_SCORES = {
+    'career-defining': 100, significant: 70, notable: 40, negligible: 10,
+};
+const LEGISLATIVE_SCORES = {
+    constitutional: 100, legislative: 70, regulatory: 40, administrative: 10,
+};
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Dimension weights (must sum to 1.0)
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+const DIMENSION_WEIGHTS = {
+    publicInterestSensitivity: 0.20,
+    democraticIntegrityImpact: 0.20,
+    policyUrgency: 0.10,
+    economicImpact: 0.15,
+    governanceImpact: 0.15,
+    politicalCapitalImpact: 0.10,
+    legislativeImpact: 0.10,
+};
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Dimension scorers
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+function containsAny(text, keywords) {
+    const lower = text.toLowerCase();
+    return keywords.some(kw => lower.includes(kw.toLowerCase()));
+}
+function getDocText(doc) {
+    const fullContentText = doc.fullContent
+        ? doc.fullContent.replace(/<[^>]+>/g, ' ')
+        : undefined;
+    const primaryText = doc.fullText ?? fullContentText;
+    return [
+        doc.titel, doc.rubrik, doc.undertitel, doc.title,
+        doc.summary, doc.notis, primaryText,
+    ].filter(Boolean).join(' ');
+}
+/**
+ * Derive normalized document type from RawDocument.
+ * Falls back from `doktyp` to `documentType`, lowercased and trimmed.
+ */
+function getDocType(doc) {
+    return String(doc.doktyp ?? doc.documentType ?? '').toLowerCase().trim();
+}
+function classifyPublicInterestSensitivity(doc, cia) {
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    if (containsAny(text, EXPLOSIVE_KEYWORDS))
+        return 'explosive';
+    // Unstable coalition elevates sensitivity of policy documents
+    if (cia?.coalitionStability?.stabilityScore !== undefined && cia.coalitionStability.stabilityScore < 30) {
+        if (containsAny(text, SENSITIVE_KEYWORDS))
+            return 'explosive';
+    }
+    if (containsAny(text, SENSITIVE_KEYWORDS))
+        return 'sensitive';
+    // Government propositions and committee reports are always at least standard
+    if (STANDARD_SENSITIVITY_TYPES.has(getDocType(doc)))
+        return 'standard';
+    return 'routine';
+}
+function classifyDemocraticIntegrityImpact(doc) {
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    if (containsAny(text, CONSTITUTIONAL_KEYWORDS))
+        return 'critical';
+    // Constitutional/oversight committee involvement is significant
+    if (doc.organ === 'KU' || doc.organ === 'FiU')
+        return 'significant';
+    // Propositions always have at least moderate democratic integrity impact
+    const docType = getDocType(doc);
+    if (docType === 'prop' || docType === 'bet')
+        return 'moderate';
+    return 'minor';
+}
+function classifyPolicyUrgency(doc) {
+    const docType = getDocType(doc);
+    if (IMMEDIATE_URGENCY_TYPES.has(docType))
+        return 'immediate';
+    if (SHORT_TERM_URGENCY_TYPES.has(docType))
+        return 'short-term';
+    if (MEDIUM_TERM_URGENCY_TYPES.has(docType))
+        return 'medium-term';
+    return 'long-term';
+}
+function classifyEconomicImpact(doc, cia) {
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    if (containsAny(text, ECONOMIC_HIGH_KEYWORDS)) {
+        // Budget propositions or finance committee documents are transformative
+        if (doc.organ === 'FiU' || getDocType(doc) === 'prop')
+            return 'transformative';
+        return 'major';
+    }
+    // Fiscal instability amplifies economic impact
+    if (cia?.coalitionStability?.stabilityScore !== undefined && cia.coalitionStability.stabilityScore < 40) {
+        return 'major';
+    }
+    if (getDocType(doc) === 'prop' || getDocType(doc) === 'bet')
+        return 'moderate';
+    return 'minimal';
+}
+function classifyGovernanceImpact(doc) {
+    const committee = doc.organ ?? doc.committee ?? '';
+    if (SYSTEMIC_GOVERNANCE_COMMITTEES.has(committee))
+        return 'systemic';
+    if (SIGNIFICANT_GOVERNANCE_COMMITTEES.has(committee))
+        return 'significant';
+    if (getDocType(doc) === 'prop' || getDocType(doc) === 'bet')
+        return 'procedural';
+    return 'routine';
+}
+function classifyPoliticalCapitalImpact(doc, cia) {
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    // Crisis keywords or coalition instability → career-defining
+    if (containsAny(text, EXPLOSIVE_KEYWORDS))
+        return 'career-defining';
+    // Interpellations targeting ministers are notable at minimum
+    const docType = getDocType(doc);
+    if (docType === 'ip' || docType === 'fr') {
+        if (doc.mottagare && doc.mottagare.length > 0)
+            return 'significant';
+        return 'notable';
+    }
+    // Unstable coalition elevates political capital stakes
+    if (cia?.coalitionStability?.stabilityScore !== undefined && cia.coalitionStability.stabilityScore < 50) {
+        return 'significant';
+    }
+    if (docType === 'prop' || docType === 'bet')
+        return 'notable';
+    return 'negligible';
+}
+function classifyLegislativeImpact(doc) {
+    const text = getDocText(doc);
+    if (containsAny(text, CONSTITUTIONAL_KEYWORDS))
+        return 'constitutional';
+    if (containsAny(text, LEGISLATIVE_KEYWORDS))
+        return 'legislative';
+    if (containsAny(text, REGULATORY_KEYWORDS))
+        return 'regulatory';
+    // Committee reports and propositions change legislation by default
+    if (getDocType(doc) === 'bet' || getDocType(doc) === 'prop')
+        return 'legislative';
+    return 'administrative';
+}
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Overall classification derivation
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+/**
+ * Derive the overall classification from the composite numeric score.
+ *
+ * Thresholds:
+ * - ≥70 → critical
+ * - ≥50 → high
+ * - ≥30 → medium
+ * - <30  → low
+ */
+function deriveOverallClassification(score) {
+    if (score >= 70)
+        return 'critical';
+    if (score >= 50)
+        return 'high';
+    if (score >= 30)
+        return 'medium';
+    return 'low';
+}
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Score computation
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+/**
+ * Compute the weighted composite classification score (0–100).
+ */
+function computeClassificationScore(dimensions) {
+    const weighted = SENSITIVITY_SCORES[dimensions.publicInterestSensitivity] * DIMENSION_WEIGHTS.publicInterestSensitivity +
+        DEMOCRATIC_SCORES[dimensions.democraticIntegrityImpact] * DIMENSION_WEIGHTS.democraticIntegrityImpact +
+        URGENCY_SCORES[dimensions.policyUrgency] * DIMENSION_WEIGHTS.policyUrgency +
+        ECONOMIC_SCORES[dimensions.economicImpact] * DIMENSION_WEIGHTS.economicImpact +
+        GOVERNANCE_SCORES[dimensions.governanceImpact] * DIMENSION_WEIGHTS.governanceImpact +
+        POLITICAL_CAPITAL_SCORES[dimensions.politicalCapitalImpact] * DIMENSION_WEIGHTS.politicalCapitalImpact +
+        LEGISLATIVE_SCORES[dimensions.legislativeImpact] * DIMENSION_WEIGHTS.legislativeImpact;
+    return Math.min(100, Math.max(0, Math.round(weighted)));
+}
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Rationale builder
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+function buildRationale(doc, dimensions) {
+    const rationale = [];
+    const docType = getDocType(doc) || 'unknown';
+    const committee = doc.organ ?? doc.committee ?? 'unknown';
+    // Public interest sensitivity
+    if (dimensions.publicInterestSensitivity === 'explosive') {
+        rationale.push('Explosive public interest: Keywords indicate scandal, crisis, or coalition threat');
+    }
+    else if (dimensions.publicInterestSensitivity === 'sensitive') {
+        rationale.push('Sensitive topic: immigration, defence, climate, or tax policy detected');
+    }
+    else {
+        rationale.push(`Public interest sensitivity rated as "${dimensions.publicInterestSensitivity}": no explosive or highly sensitive triggers detected`);
+    }
+    // Democratic integrity impact
+    if (dimensions.democraticIntegrityImpact === 'critical') {
+        rationale.push('Critical democratic integrity: Constitutional law or fundamental rights involved');
+    }
+    else if (dimensions.democraticIntegrityImpact === 'significant') {
+        rationale.push(`Significant democratic impact: Committee ${committee} has oversight/constitutional role`);
+    }
+    else {
+        rationale.push(`Democratic integrity impact rated as "${dimensions.democraticIntegrityImpact}": limited or routine implications for democratic processes`);
+    }
+    // Economic impact
+    if (dimensions.economicImpact === 'transformative') {
+        rationale.push('Transformative economic impact: Budget or macro-level fiscal content detected');
+    }
+    else if (dimensions.economicImpact === 'major') {
+        rationale.push('Major economic impact: Significant fiscal or monetary policy implications');
+    }
+    else {
+        rationale.push(`Economic impact rated as "${dimensions.economicImpact}": no major fiscal or monetary signals detected`);
+    }
+    // Governance impact
+    if (dimensions.governanceImpact === 'systemic') {
+        rationale.push(`Systemic governance impact: Committee ${committee} drives cross-government policy`);
+    }
+    else {
+        rationale.push(`Governance impact rated as "${dimensions.governanceImpact}": ${committee} committee scope`);
+    }
+    // Legislative impact
+    if (dimensions.legislativeImpact === 'constitutional') {
+        rationale.push('Constitutional legislative impact: Affects fundamental law or constitutional order');
+    }
+    else if (dimensions.legislativeImpact === 'legislative') {
+        rationale.push(`Legislative impact: Document type ${docType} typically creates or amends statutes`);
+    }
+    else {
+        rationale.push(`Legislative impact rated as "${dimensions.legislativeImpact}": no statutory or constitutional changes detected`);
+    }
+    // Policy urgency
+    if (dimensions.policyUrgency === 'immediate') {
+        rationale.push('Immediate policy urgency: Time-critical document requiring prompt attention');
+    }
+    else if (dimensions.policyUrgency === 'short-term') {
+        rationale.push('Short-term policy urgency: Active legislative or committee timeline');
+    }
+    else {
+        rationale.push(`Policy urgency rated as "${dimensions.policyUrgency}": standard parliamentary timeline`);
+    }
+    // Political capital impact
+    if (dimensions.politicalCapitalImpact === 'career-defining') {
+        rationale.push('Career-defining political capital impact: Major reputational stakes for actors involved');
+    }
+    else if (dimensions.politicalCapitalImpact === 'significant') {
+        rationale.push('Significant political capital impact: Notable reputational consequences');
+    }
+    else {
+        rationale.push(`Political capital impact rated as "${dimensions.politicalCapitalImpact}": limited reputational stakes`);
+    }
+    return rationale;
+}
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Public API
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+/**
+ * Classify a parliamentary document across 7 political dimensions.
+ *
+ * Applies the ISMS-inspired Political Classification Framework to produce
+ * a multi-dimensional classification with an aggregated score and rationale.
+ *
+ * The function is **pure** — deterministic for the same input, no side effects.
+ *
+ * @param doc  - The parliamentary document to classify
+ * @param cia  - Optional CIA context (coalition stability influences several dimensions)
+ * @returns    Complete 7-dimension political classification
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const classification = classifyPoliticalDocument(doc, ciaContext);
+ * console.log(classification.overallClassification); // 'critical' | 'high' | 'medium' | 'low'
+ * console.log(classification.classificationScore);   // 0-100
+ * ```
+ */
+export function classifyPoliticalDocument(doc, cia) {
+    const publicInterestSensitivity = classifyPublicInterestSensitivity(doc, cia);
+    const democraticIntegrityImpact = classifyDemocraticIntegrityImpact(doc);
+    const policyUrgency = classifyPolicyUrgency(doc);
+    const economicImpact = classifyEconomicImpact(doc, cia);
+    const governanceImpact = classifyGovernanceImpact(doc);
+    const politicalCapitalImpact = classifyPoliticalCapitalImpact(doc, cia);
+    const legislativeImpact = classifyLegislativeImpact(doc);
+    const dimensions = {
+        publicInterestSensitivity,
+        democraticIntegrityImpact,
+        policyUrgency,
+        economicImpact,
+        governanceImpact,
+        politicalCapitalImpact,
+        legislativeImpact,
+    };
+    const classificationScore = computeClassificationScore(dimensions);
+    const overallClassification = deriveOverallClassification(classificationScore);
+    const rationale = buildRationale(doc, dimensions);
+    return {
+        ...dimensions,
+        overallClassification,
+        classificationScore,
+        rationale,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Classify a batch of parliamentary documents.
+ *
+ * Applies `classifyPoliticalDocument` to each document independently.
+ * Useful for batch processing in the news generation pipeline.
+ *
+ * @param docs - Array of documents to classify
+ * @param cia  - Optional shared CIA context for all documents
+ * @returns    Array of classifications, one per input document
+ */
+export function classifyPoliticalDocuments(docs, cia) {
+    return docs.map(doc => classifyPoliticalDocument(doc, cia));
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=political-classification.js.map

package/dist/scripts/analysis-framework/political-classification.js.map

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package/dist/scripts/analysis-framework/political-risk-assessment.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+/**
+ * @module analysis-framework/political-risk-assessment
+ * @description Political risk scoring engine implementing Likelihood × Impact
+ * risk assessment for parliamentary documents.
+ *
+ * Inspired by ISMS Risk_Assessment_Methodology.md (Quantitative risk scoring),
+ * adapted for political intelligence analysis of Swedish parliamentary context.
+ *
+ * ## Risk Categories
+ * - Coalition Stability — Government collapse or realignment risk
+ * - Policy Implementation — Policy failure or stalling risk
+ * - Democratic Process — Threat to democratic norms and institutions
+ * - Economic Policy — Fiscal/monetary policy decision risk
+ * - Social Cohesion — Societal division or unrest risk
+ * - International Standing — Sweden's international position risk
+ *
+ * ## Scoring Formula
+ * Risk Score = likelihood_probability × impact_weight × 10
+ * With current scales (almost-certain=0.90, transformative=10), the
+ * practical maximum is 90.  Values are clamped to [0, 100] for safety.
+ *
+ * The engine is **pure** — deterministic for the same input, no side effects.
+ *
+ * @author Hack23 AB
+ * @license Apache-2.0
+ */
+import type { RawDocument, CIAContext } from '../data-transformers/types.js';
+import type { PoliticalRiskAssessment, PoliticalRiskProfile, PoliticalRiskCategory, LikelihoodLevel, RiskImpactLevel } from './methodology-types.js';
+/**
+ * Compute a risk score from likelihood and impact.
+ *
+ * Formula: likelihood_probability × impact_weight × 10
+ * With current scales (almost-certain=0.90, transformative=10), the
+ * practical maximum is 90.  Values are clamped to [0, 100] for safety.
+ */
+export declare function computeRiskScore(likelihood: LikelihoodLevel, impact: RiskImpactLevel): number;
+/**
+ * Derive priority tier from risk score.
+ */
+export declare function deriveRiskPriority(score: number): 'critical' | 'high' | 'medium' | 'low';
+/**
+ * Assess political risk for a parliamentary document across all 6 risk categories.
+ *
+ * Applies the ISMS-inspired Likelihood × Impact methodology to each category
+ * and returns a complete risk profile with composite scoring and priority ranking.
+ *
+ * The function is **pure** — deterministic for the same input, no side effects.
+ *
+ * @param doc  - The parliamentary document to assess
+ * @param cia  - Optional CIA context (coalition stability data improves accuracy)
+ * @returns    Complete political risk profile with per-category assessments
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const profile = assessPoliticalRisk(doc, ciaContext);
+ * console.log(profile.overallRiskLevel);      // 'critical' | 'high' | 'medium' | 'low'
+ * console.log(profile.compositeRiskScore);    // 0–100
+ * console.log(profile.dominantRisk);          // highest-priority category
+ * ```
+ */
+export declare function assessPoliticalRisk(doc: RawDocument, cia?: CIAContext): PoliticalRiskProfile;
+/**
+ * Assess political risk for a specific category only.
+ *
+ * Use when you need a targeted assessment for a single risk dimension
+ * rather than the full 6-category profile.
+ *
+ * @param doc      - The parliamentary document to assess
+ * @param category - The specific risk category to assess
+ * @param cia      - Optional CIA context
+ * @returns        Risk assessment for the specified category
+ */
+export declare function assessSingleRiskCategory(doc: RawDocument, category: PoliticalRiskCategory, cia?: CIAContext): PoliticalRiskAssessment;
+//# sourceMappingURL=political-risk-assessment.d.ts.map

package/dist/scripts/analysis-framework/political-risk-assessment.d.ts.map

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