melete-ai 0.88.2

package/dist/efficiency.js

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+import { assessAchievability } from "./achievability.js";
+import { analyzeDrift } from "./drift.js";
+const ROB_K = 0.45; // robustness sensitivity to the local drop-rate (calibrated by the gauntlet)
+const dst = (a, c) => { let s = 0; for (let i = 0; i < a.length; i++)
+    s += (a[i] - c[i]) ** 2; return Math.sqrt(s); };
+/**
+ * Robustness of the optimum from the LOCAL drop-rate: leaving the best point, how fast does the value fall?
+ * A broad plateau loses little per step (robust → ~1); a sharp spike collapses immediately (fragile → ~0).
+ * Measured directly from the neighbours of the best point — no global model that a sparsely-sampled spike
+ * could fool into looking flat.
+ */
+function localDropRate(npts, signed, bestIdx, vRange) {
+    const x0 = npts[bestIdx], v0 = signed[bestIdx];
+    const rates = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < npts.length; i++) {
+        if (i === bestIdx)
+            continue;
+        const d = dst(x0, npts[i]);
+        if (d < 1e-6)
+            continue;
+        rates.push({ d, rate: Math.max(0, (v0 - signed[i]) / (d * vRange)) });
+    }
+    if (!rates.length)
+        return 0;
+    // keep the nearest ~40% of neighbours — robustness is a LOCAL property of the peak
+    rates.sort((a, b) => a.d - b.d);
+    const keep = Math.max(3, Math.round(rates.length * 0.4));
+    const near = rates.slice(0, keep).map((r) => r.rate).sort((a, b) => a - b);
+    return near[Math.floor(near.length / 2)]; // median drop-rate among near neighbours
+}
+/** Compute the Discovery Efficiency η of a finished (or in-progress) run. */
+export function discoveryEfficiency(obs, space, goal = "maximize") {
+    const dims = space?.dims ?? [];
+    const D = dims.length;
+    const hist = (obs ?? []).filter((o) => o && o.experiment && Number.isFinite(o.value));
+    const n = hist.length;
+    if (D === 0 || n < 8) {
+        return { eta: NaN, gain: NaN, robustness: NaN, trust: NaN, evaluations: n, grade: "unknown", weakestLink: null, note: `need ≈8+ measurements to compute η (have ${n})` };
+    }
+    const sgn = goal === "minimize" ? -1 : 1;
+    const lo = (i) => dims[i].min ?? 0, hi = (i) => dims[i].max ?? 1;
+    const toN = (e) => dims.map((d, i) => { const sp = hi(i) - lo(i) || 1; return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, ((+e[d.name] || 0) - lo(i)) / sp)); });
+    const npts = hist.map((o) => toN(o.experiment));
+    const signed = hist.map((o) => sgn * o.value);
+    const best = Math.max(...signed);
+    const bestIdx = signed.indexOf(best);
+    const blind = signed.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n; // blind baseline: mean of measurements
+    const vRange = Math.max(1e-9, Math.max(...signed) - Math.min(...signed));
+    // G — gain captured vs the achievable headroom (ceiling from ACHIEVABILITY, in signed space)
+    const ceilRep = assessAchievability(hist, space, sgn * (best + 1e6), goal); // huge target → report just gives ceiling
+    const ceilingSigned = Number.isFinite(ceilRep.ceiling) ? sgn * ceilRep.ceiling : best;
+    const headroom = Math.max(1e-9, ceilingSigned - blind);
+    const gain = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, (best - blind) / headroom));
+    // R — robustness of the optimum (flat plateau → 1, sharp spike → 0)
+    const drop = localDropRate(npts, signed, bestIdx, vRange);
+    const robustness = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, 1 / (1 + ROB_K * drop)));
+    // T — trust: not confounded with experiment order
+    const dr = analyzeDrift(hist, space, goal);
+    const trust = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, 1 - (Number.isFinite(dr.driftFraction) ? dr.driftFraction : 0)));
+    const eta = Math.cbrt(Math.max(0, gain) * Math.max(0, robustness) * Math.max(0, trust));
+    const links = [["gain", gain], ["robustness", robustness], ["trust", trust]];
+    links.sort((a, b) => a[1] - b[1]);
+    const weakestLink = links[0][1] < 0.999 ? links[0][0] : null;
+    const grade = eta >= 0.75 ? "exceptional" : eta >= 0.55 ? "strong" : eta >= 0.35 ? "fair" : "weak";
+    const r3 = (x) => +x.toFixed(3);
+    const wl = weakestLink ? `; weakest link: ${weakestLink} (${links[0][1].toFixed(2)})` : "";
+    const note = `η = ∛(G·R·T) = ∛(${gain.toFixed(2)}·${robustness.toFixed(2)}·${trust.toFixed(2)}) = ${eta.toFixed(2)} — ${grade}${wl}`;
+    return { eta: r3(eta), gain: r3(gain), robustness: r3(robustness), trust: r3(trust), evaluations: n, grade, weakestLink, note };
+}
+// ── gauntlet ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+import { lcg } from "./space.js";
+export function efficiencyGauntlet() {
+    const space = { dims: [{ name: "x", type: "real", min: 0, max: 1 }, { name: "y", type: "real", min: 0, max: 1 }] };
+    const broad = (x, y) => Math.exp(-(((x - 0.5) ** 2) + ((y - 0.5) ** 2)) / 0.5); // wide, robust peak
+    const sharp = (x, y) => Math.exp(-(((x - 0.5) ** 2) + ((y - 0.5) ** 2)) / 0.01); // narrow, fragile spike
+    // a GOOD run: samples concentrated toward the broad optimum (real gain), no drift
+    const good = [];
+    const rg = lcg(3);
+    for (let i = 0; i < 70; i++) {
+        const t = i / 70;
+        const x = 0.5 + (rg() - 0.5) * (1 - 0.6 * t), y = 0.5 + (rg() - 0.5) * (1 - 0.6 * t);
+        good.push({ experiment: { x, y }, value: broad(x, y) });
+    }
+    const eGood = discoveryEfficiency(good, space, "maximize");
+    // a FRAGILE run: same gain story but a sharp spike → robustness should crater → lower η
+    const frag = [];
+    const rf = lcg(3);
+    for (let i = 0; i < 70; i++) {
+        const t = i / 70;
+        const x = 0.5 + (rf() - 0.5) * (1 - 0.6 * t), y = 0.5 + (rf() - 0.5) * (1 - 0.6 * t);
+        frag.push({ experiment: { x, y }, value: sharp(x, y) });
+    }
+    const eFrag = discoveryEfficiency(frag, space, "maximize");
+    // a CONFOUNDED run: broad peak but a strong time-drift added → trust should crater → lower η
+    const conf = [];
+    const rc = lcg(3);
+    for (let i = 0; i < 70; i++) {
+        const t = i / 70;
+        const x = 0.5 + (rc() - 0.5) * (1 - 0.6 * t), y = 0.5 + (rc() - 0.5) * (1 - 0.6 * t);
+        conf.push({ experiment: { x, y }, value: broad(x, y) + 0.9 * (i / 70) });
+    }
+    const eConf = discoveryEfficiency(conf, space, "maximize");
+    // a NO-PROGRESS run: random scatter, best barely beats the mean → gain low → η low
+    const flat = [];
+    const rfl = lcg(7);
+    for (let i = 0; i < 70; i++) {
+        const x = rfl(), y = rfl();
+        flat.push({ experiment: { x, y }, value: 0.5 + 0.01 * (rfl() - 0.5) });
+    }
+    const eFlat = discoveryEfficiency(flat, space, "maximize");
+    const goodHigh = eGood.eta >= 0.55 && eGood.grade !== "weak";
+    const fragileDrop = eFrag.eta < eGood.eta - 0.1 && eFrag.weakestLink === "robustness";
+    const confoundDrop = eConf.eta < eGood.eta - 0.1 && eConf.trust < eGood.trust - 0.2; // drift specifically damages the TRUST factor
+    const noProgressLow = eFlat.eta < 0.35 && eFlat.weakestLink === "gain";
+    // CONJUNCTIVE (the black-sheep property): a run great on two axes but ~0 on one has η near 0,
+    // and BELOW what a weighted average (G+R+T)/3 would have reported — proving the geometric mean bites.
+    const wsumFrag = (eFrag.gain + eFrag.robustness + eFrag.trust) / 3;
+    const conjunctive = eFrag.eta < wsumFrag - 0.05;
+    const bounded = [eGood, eFrag, eConf, eFlat].every((e) => e.eta >= 0 && e.eta <= 1);
+    const det = JSON.stringify(discoveryEfficiency(good, space, "maximize")) === JSON.stringify(discoveryEfficiency(good, space, "maximize"));
+    const abstains = discoveryEfficiency(good.slice(0, 4), space, "maximize").grade === "unknown";
+    const total = (() => { try {
+        discoveryEfficiency(null, space);
+        discoveryEfficiency([], space, "minimize");
+        return true;
+    }
+    catch {
+        return false;
+    } })();
+    const checks = [
+        { name: "GOOD-RUN-HIGH", pass: goodHigh, detail: `genuine robust run → η ${eGood.eta} (${eGood.grade})` },
+        { name: "FRAGILE-OPTIMUM-DROPS", pass: fragileDrop, detail: `sharp spike → η ${eFrag.eta} (R ${eFrag.robustness}), weakest=${eFrag.weakestLink}` },
+        { name: "CONFOUNDED-DROPS-TRUST", pass: confoundDrop, detail: `time-drift → η ${eConf.eta}, trust ${eConf.trust} vs clean ${eGood.trust}` },
+        { name: "NO-PROGRESS-LOW", pass: noProgressLow, detail: `best≈mean → η ${eFlat.eta} (G ${eFlat.gain}), weakest=${eFlat.weakestLink}` },
+        { name: "CONJUNCTIVE-GEOMEAN", pass: conjunctive, detail: `η ${eFrag.eta} < weighted-avg ${wsumFrag.toFixed(2)} — a weak link can't hide` },
+        { name: "BOUNDED-0-1", pass: bounded, detail: "η always in [0,1]" },
+        { name: "DETERMINISTIC", pass: det, detail: "same run → same η" },
+        { name: "ABSTAINS-WHEN-THIN", pass: abstains, detail: "too few measurements → unknown" },
+        { name: "TOTAL", pass: total, detail: "null / empty never throws" },
+    ];
+    return { score: checks.every((c) => c.pass) ? 100 : 0, checks };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=efficiency.js.map

package/dist/efficiency.js.map

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package/dist/engine.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+/**
+ * THE BRAIN — the closed-loop active-experiment-design engine.
+ *
+ *   propose  → the most promising UNtried experiment (Bayesian-optimization-lite: a Gaussian-kernel
+ *              surrogate predicts the outcome of any candidate; an UCB acquisition trades off exploiting
+ *              the best-known region against exploring the uncertain one; exploration DECAYS over the
+ *              budget so it explores early and exploits late)
+ *   observe  → the oracle measures the proposed experiment
+ *   update   → the observation joins the evidence; the surrogate sharpens
+ *   converge → repeat until the budget is spent or the goal is reached
+ *
+ * It learns the shape of an unknown response surface from as FEW experiments as possible — because in the
+ * real world each experiment costs reagents / robot-time / money. Deterministic (seeded), so a run is
+ * reproducible and its signed trace is meaningful.
+ *
+ * ★HONEST: this is a lightweight, dependency-free surrogate (kernel-weighted mean + nearest-point
+ * uncertainty), not a full Gaussian-process with learned hyperparameters. It reliably beats random/grid
+ * on smooth-ish response surfaces (proven in bench.ts); pathological/high-dimensional/very noisy surfaces
+ * need a heavier surrogate — a slot the architecture leaves open.
+ */
+import { type Space, type Experiment } from "./space.js";
+export type Goal = "maximize" | "minimize";
+export interface Observation {
+    experiment: Experiment;
+    value: number;
+}
+export interface Step {
+    n: number;
+    experiment: Experiment;
+    value: number;
+    acquisition: number;
+    kappa: number;
+    rationale: string;
+}
+export interface DiscoveryResult {
+    best: Observation;
+    history: Step[];
+    evaluations: number;
+    converged: boolean;
+    goal: Goal;
+}
+export interface DiscoverOpts {
+    space: Space;
+    oracle: (e: Experiment) => number | Promise<number>;
+    budget: number;
+    goal?: Goal;
+    seed?: number;
+    target?: number;
+    candidatePool?: number;
+    kappa0?: number;
+    bandwidth?: number;
+    onStep?: (s: Step) => void | Promise<void>;
+}
+/** Run the closed discovery loop. Returns the best experiment found + the full reproducible history. */
+export declare function discover(opts: DiscoverOpts): Promise<DiscoveryResult>;
+export declare function engineGauntlet(): Promise<{
+    score: 0 | 100;
+    checks: Array<{
+        name: string;
+        pass: boolean;
+        detail: string;
+    }>;
+}>;
+//# sourceMappingURL=engine.d.ts.map

package/dist/engine.d.ts.map

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package/dist/engine.js

@@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
+/**
+ * THE BRAIN — the closed-loop active-experiment-design engine.
+ *
+ *   propose  → the most promising UNtried experiment (Bayesian-optimization-lite: a Gaussian-kernel
+ *              surrogate predicts the outcome of any candidate; an UCB acquisition trades off exploiting
+ *              the best-known region against exploring the uncertain one; exploration DECAYS over the
+ *              budget so it explores early and exploits late)
+ *   observe  → the oracle measures the proposed experiment
+ *   update   → the observation joins the evidence; the surrogate sharpens
+ *   converge → repeat until the budget is spent or the goal is reached
+ *
+ * It learns the shape of an unknown response surface from as FEW experiments as possible — because in the
+ * real world each experiment costs reagents / robot-time / money. Deterministic (seeded), so a run is
+ * reproducible and its signed trace is meaningful.
+ *
+ * ★HONEST: this is a lightweight, dependency-free surrogate (kernel-weighted mean + nearest-point
+ * uncertainty), not a full Gaussian-process with learned hyperparameters. It reliably beats random/grid
+ * on smooth-ish response surfaces (proven in bench.ts); pathological/high-dimensional/very noisy surfaces
+ * need a heavier surrogate — a slot the architecture leaves open.
+ */
+import { lcg, gridCandidates, randomCandidates, localCandidates, dist2 } from "./space.js";
+const key = (e) => JSON.stringify(e);
+/** Run the closed discovery loop. Returns the best experiment found + the full reproducible history. */
+export async function discover(opts) {
+    const space = opts.space;
+    const goal = opts.goal ?? "maximize";
+    const budget = Math.max(1, opts.budget | 0);
+    const seed = opts.seed ?? 1;
+    const rnd = lcg(seed);
+    const pool = Math.max(64, opts.candidatePool ?? 2500);
+    const kappa0 = opts.kappa0 ?? 1.0;
+    const bw = opts.bandwidth ?? 0.025;
+    const better = (a, b) => goal === "maximize" ? a > b : a < b;
+    const sign = goal === "maximize" ? 1 : -1; // acquisition always "wants" larger; flip for minimize
+    const obs = [];
+    const seen = new Set();
+    const history = [];
+    const evalExp = async (e) => { const v = Number(await opts.oracle(e)); return Number.isFinite(v) ? v : (goal === "maximize" ? -1e18 : 1e18); };
+    const record = async (e, acq, kappa, rationale) => {
+        const v = await evalExp(e);
+        obs.push({ experiment: e, value: v });
+        seen.add(key(e));
+        const best = obs.reduce((a, b) => better(b.value, a.value) ? b : a);
+        const step = { n: obs.length, experiment: e, value: v, acquisition: acq, kappa, rationale };
+        history.push(step);
+        if (opts.onStep)
+            await opts.onStep(step);
+        return best;
+    };
+    // cold start: a coarse grid design of experiments (global coverage before any modelling)
+    const perDim = space.dims.length <= 2 ? 3 : 2;
+    for (const e of gridCandidates(space, perDim).slice(0, Math.max(1, Math.min(budget, space.dims.length <= 2 ? 9 : 8)))) {
+        if (obs.length >= budget)
+            break;
+        if (seen.has(key(e)))
+            continue;
+        await record(e, 0, kappa0, "seed: design-of-experiments grid point");
+    }
+    let best = obs.length ? obs.reduce((a, b) => better(b.value, a.value) ? b : a) : { experiment: {}, value: goal === "maximize" ? -Infinity : Infinity };
+    // active loop
+    for (let t = obs.length; t < budget; t++) {
+        if (opts.target != null && better(best.value, opts.target))
+            break;
+        const progress = (t - obs.length + 1) / Math.max(1, budget - obs.length); // 0 → 1 across the active budget
+        const kappa = kappa0 * Math.exp(-progress * 3.5); // explore early, exploit late
+        const radius = 0.25 * Math.exp(-progress * 2.5); // local ball tightens → sub-grid refinement
+        // candidate evaluation is FREE (only ORACLE calls cost) → use a dense GRID (guarantees coverage of the
+        // true optimum, the way the proven prototype did) + a local cloud around the best for sub-grid refinement.
+        const perDim = Math.max(4, Math.min(60, Math.round(Math.pow(pool, 1 / Math.max(1, space.dims.length)))));
+        const candidates = [...gridCandidates(space, perDim, pool * 2), ...localCandidates(space, best.experiment, Math.ceil(pool / 3), Math.max(0.02, radius), rnd), ...randomCandidates(space, Math.ceil(pool / 4), rnd)];
+        let pick = null, pa = -Infinity;
+        for (const c of candidates) {
+            if (seen.has(key(c)))
+                continue;
+            let wsum = 0, vsum = 0, nearest = Infinity;
+            for (const o of obs) {
+                const d2 = dist2(space, c, o.experiment);
+                const w = Math.exp(-d2 / bw);
+                wsum += w;
+                vsum += w * (sign * o.value);
+                nearest = Math.min(nearest, Math.sqrt(d2));
+            }
+            const mean = wsum > 1e-12 ? vsum / wsum : 0; // surrogate prediction (in "maximize" orientation)
+            const acq = mean + kappa * nearest; // UCB: exploit + explore
+            if (acq > pa) {
+                pa = acq;
+                pick = c;
+            }
+        }
+        if (!pick)
+            break;
+        best = await record(pick, pa, kappa, `acquisition=${pa.toFixed(3)} (surrogate mean + ${kappa.toFixed(2)}·uncertainty)`);
+    }
+    const converged = opts.target != null ? better(best.value, opts.target) || Math.abs(best.value - opts.target) < 1e-9 : true;
+    return { best, history, evaluations: obs.length, converged, goal };
+}
+// ── gauntlet ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+export async function engineGauntlet() {
+    const space = { dims: [{ name: "x", type: "real", min: 0, max: 10 }, { name: "y", type: "real", min: 0, max: 10 }] };
+    const peak = (e) => Math.exp(-(((e.x ?? 0) - 7.2) ** 2 + ((e.y ?? 0) - 3.4) ** 2) / 3); // optimum ≈1 at (7.2,3.4)
+    const r = await discover({ space, oracle: (e) => peak(e), budget: 60, seed: 7, goal: "maximize" });
+    const foundPeak = r.best.value > 0.9;
+    const respectsBudget = r.evaluations <= 60;
+    // determinism: same seed → same best
+    const r2 = await discover({ space, oracle: (e) => peak(e), budget: 60, seed: 7, goal: "maximize" });
+    const deterministic = JSON.stringify(r.best) === JSON.stringify(r2.best);
+    // minimize works too
+    const rm = await discover({ space, oracle: (e) => -peak(e), budget: 60, seed: 7, goal: "minimize" });
+    const minimizes = rm.best.value < -0.9;
+    // target early-stop
+    const rt = await discover({ space, oracle: (e) => peak(e), budget: 200, seed: 7, goal: "maximize", target: 0.8 });
+    const earlyStop = rt.best.value >= 0.8 && rt.evaluations < 200;
+    let total = true;
+    try {
+        await discover({ space, oracle: () => NaN, budget: 5, seed: 1 });
+    }
+    catch {
+        total = false;
+    }
+    const checks = [
+        { name: "FINDS-OPTIMUM", pass: foundPeak, detail: "reaches >0.9 of a hidden 2D peak within 60 experiments" },
+        { name: "RESPECTS-BUDGET", pass: respectsBudget, detail: "never exceeds the experiment budget" },
+        { name: "DETERMINISTIC", pass: deterministic, detail: "same seed → identical discovery (reproducible)" },
+        { name: "MINIMIZE", pass: minimizes, detail: "minimize goal works symmetrically" },
+        { name: "TARGET-EARLY-STOP", pass: earlyStop, detail: "stops as soon as the target is reached (saves experiments)" },
+        { name: "TOTAL", pass: total, detail: "a NaN/garbage oracle never throws (treated as worst value)" },
+    ];
+    return { score: checks.every((c) => c.pass) ? 100 : 0, checks };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=engine.js.map

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package/dist/federated.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+import { type Space, type Experiment } from "./space.js";
+import { type Goal } from "./engine.js";
+export interface FedRecord {
+    party: string;
+    experiment: Experiment;
+    value: number;
+    ts: number;
+    hash: string;
+}
+/** A party signs (content-hashes) one observation before contributing it to the shared pool. */
+export declare function contribute(party: string, experiment: Experiment, value: number, ts?: number): FedRecord;
+/** Is this record intact (its content still hashes to its claimed hash)? */
+export declare function recordIntact(r: FedRecord): boolean;
+/**
+ * CRDT-merge any number of pools: union by content hash, drop tampered/forged records, deterministic order.
+ * Commutative + idempotent — every party that merges the same set converges to the same pool.
+ */
+export declare function mergePool(...pools: ReadonlyArray<ReadonlyArray<FedRecord>>): FedRecord[];
+export interface PoolVerify {
+    ok: boolean;
+    total: number;
+    valid: number;
+    tampered: number;
+    parties: string[];
+}
+/** Verify the whole pool offline: every record must hash to its content. */
+export declare function verifyPool(pool: ReadonlyArray<FedRecord>): PoolVerify;
+/** Propose the next experiment for the whole swarm from the VERIFIED union of all parties' results. */
+export declare function proposeFromPool(space: Space, pool: ReadonlyArray<FedRecord>, goal?: Goal, seed?: number): Experiment;
+export declare function federatedGauntlet(): {
+    score: 0 | 100;
+    checks: Array<{
+        name: string;
+        pass: boolean;
+        detail: string;
+    }>;
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=federated.d.ts.map

package/dist/federated.d.ts.map

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package/dist/federated.js

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+/**
+ * FEDERATED — many labs optimise the SAME problem together, with a tamper-evident, attributed, conflict-free
+ * shared pool of results.
+ *
+ * Lab A and Lab B both want the best formulation. Alone, each can only afford a handful of expensive
+ * experiments. Pooled, the swarm converges far faster — IF you can trust the pool. FEDERATED makes each
+ * contribution a content-hashed record (party + experiment + value), merges pools as a CRDT (union by hash,
+ * commutative + idempotent, forged/edited records dropped), and proposes the next experiment for everyone
+ * from the verified union. The pool's integrity is checkable offline.
+ *
+ * Honest by construction (DIAKRISIS): this gives tamper-evidence + attribution + conflict-free merge — the
+ * real, buildable core of collaborative optimisation. It is NOT zero-knowledge: to jointly optimise, the
+ * experiment points are shared in the pool. The optional `blindNames` only pseudonymises the dimension
+ * LABELS (a shared-order codebook), not the values — so a party can withhold what a coordinate MEANS, not
+ * the coordinate itself. Anyone claiming "optimise without sharing any data" is selling fiction.
+ */
+import { createHash } from "node:crypto";
+import { proposeNext } from "./interactive.js";
+function canon(party, experiment, value, ts) {
+    const keys = Object.keys(experiment || {}).sort();
+    const e = keys.map((k) => [k, Math.round((+experiment[k] || 0) * 1e9) / 1e9]);
+    return JSON.stringify([String(party), e, Math.round(value * 1e9) / 1e9, Math.floor(ts || 0)]);
+}
+function hashOf(party, experiment, value, ts) {
+    return createHash("sha256").update(canon(party, experiment, value, ts)).digest("hex");
+}
+/** A party signs (content-hashes) one observation before contributing it to the shared pool. */
+export function contribute(party, experiment, value, ts = 0) {
+    return { party: String(party), experiment, value, ts: Math.floor(ts || 0), hash: hashOf(String(party), experiment, value, Math.floor(ts || 0)) };
+}
+/** Is this record intact (its content still hashes to its claimed hash)? */
+export function recordIntact(r) {
+    return !!r && typeof r.hash === "string" && r.hash === hashOf(r.party, r.experiment, r.value, r.ts);
+}
+/**
+ * CRDT-merge any number of pools: union by content hash, drop tampered/forged records, deterministic order.
+ * Commutative + idempotent — every party that merges the same set converges to the same pool.
+ */
+export function mergePool(...pools) {
+    const byHash = new Map();
+    for (const pool of pools)
+        for (const r of pool ?? []) {
+            if (!recordIntact(r))
+                continue; // forged or edited → rejected
+            if (!byHash.has(r.hash))
+                byHash.set(r.hash, r); // dedup
+        }
+    return [...byHash.values()].sort((a, b) => (a.ts - b.ts) || (a.hash < b.hash ? -1 : a.hash > b.hash ? 1 : 0));
+}
+/** Verify the whole pool offline: every record must hash to its content. */
+export function verifyPool(pool) {
+    const recs = pool ?? [];
+    let valid = 0;
+    const parties = new Set();
+    for (const r of recs) {
+        if (recordIntact(r)) {
+            valid++;
+            parties.add(r.party);
+        }
+    }
+    return { ok: valid === recs.length, total: recs.length, valid, tampered: recs.length - valid, parties: [...parties].sort() };
+}
+/** Propose the next experiment for the whole swarm from the VERIFIED union of all parties' results. */
+export function proposeFromPool(space, pool, goal = "maximize", seed = 1) {
+    const obs = mergePool(pool).map((r) => ({ experiment: r.experiment, value: r.value }));
+    return proposeNext(space, obs, goal, seed);
+}
+// ── gauntlet ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+export function federatedGauntlet() {
+    const truth = (e) => Math.exp(-(((e.x ?? 0) - 7) ** 2 + ((e.y ?? 0) - 3) ** 2) / 2); // optimum ≈1 at (7,3)
+    const space = { dims: [{ name: "x", type: "real", min: 0, max: 10 }, { name: "y", type: "real", min: 0, max: 10 }] };
+    // two labs each contribute a few signed observations
+    const labA = [contribute("labA", { x: 6, y: 4 }, truth({ x: 6, y: 4 }), 1), contribute("labA", { x: 7, y: 3 }, truth({ x: 7, y: 3 }), 2)];
+    const labB = [contribute("labB", { x: 2, y: 8 }, truth({ x: 2, y: 8 }), 3), contribute("labB", { x: 5, y: 5 }, truth({ x: 5, y: 5 }), 4)];
+    const pool = mergePool(labA, labB);
+    const merges = pool.length === 4 && verifyPool(pool).ok && verifyPool(pool).parties.length === 2;
+    // CRDT: merge is commutative + idempotent
+    const commutative = JSON.stringify(mergePool(labA, labB)) === JSON.stringify(mergePool(labB, labA));
+    const idempotent = JSON.stringify(mergePool(pool, pool)) === JSON.stringify(pool);
+    // tamper: edit a value after signing → dropped on merge + flagged by verify
+    const forged = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(labA));
+    forged[0].value = 999;
+    const tamperDropped = mergePool(forged, labB).length === 3 && verifyPool(forged).ok === false && verifyPool(forged).tampered === 1;
+    // dedup: contributing the same record twice yields one
+    const dup = mergePool(labA, labA).length === 2;
+    // the swarm proposes a valid in-bounds next experiment from the union
+    const next = proposeFromPool(space, pool, "maximize", 5);
+    const proposeOK = typeof next.x === "number" && next.x >= 0 && next.x <= 10 && typeof next.y === "number";
+    // pooled data helps: a guided loop seeded with BOTH labs reaches the optimum
+    const obs = mergePool(labA, labB).map((r) => ({ experiment: r.experiment, value: r.value }));
+    let best = Math.max(...obs.map((o) => o.value));
+    for (let i = 0; i < 40; i++) {
+        const e = proposeNext(space, obs, "maximize", 9);
+        const v = truth(e);
+        obs.push({ experiment: e, value: v });
+        if (v > best)
+            best = v;
+    }
+    const converges = best > 0.9;
+    const total = (() => { try {
+        mergePool(null);
+        verifyPool(null);
+        proposeFromPool(space, null);
+        return true;
+    }
+    catch {
+        return false;
+    } })();
+    const checks = [
+        { name: "MERGE+ATTRIBUTE", pass: merges, detail: "two labs' signed observations merge into one verified pool, both parties attributed" },
+        { name: "CRDT-COMMUTATIVE", pass: commutative, detail: "merge(A,B) == merge(B,A) — order-independent" },
+        { name: "CRDT-IDEMPOTENT", pass: idempotent, detail: "merging the pool with itself changes nothing" },
+        { name: "TAMPER-DROPPED", pass: tamperDropped, detail: "a record edited after signing fails its hash, is dropped on merge + flagged" },
+        { name: "DEDUP", pass: dup, detail: "the same contribution twice yields one record" },
+        { name: "SWARM-PROPOSE", pass: proposeOK, detail: "the pool proposes a valid in-bounds next experiment for everyone" },
+        { name: "POOLED-CONVERGES", pass: converges, detail: `a guided loop seeded with both labs reaches the optimum (best=${best.toFixed(3)})` },
+        { name: "TOTAL", pass: total, detail: "null / empty pools never throw" },
+    ];
+    return { score: checks.every((c) => c.pass) ? 100 : 0, checks };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=federated.js.map

package/dist/federated.js.map

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package/dist/frontier.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+/**
+ * FRONTIER — the economics of the NEXT experiment ("should I run another, or stop?").
+ *
+ * Every other optimizer answers "what should I try next?". For an EXPENSIVE physical experiment
+ * (an assay, a wafer run, a GPU sweep) the question that actually decides the budget is the opposite:
+ * "is the next try WORTH it, or have I already found the practical best?" Spending one more experiment
+ * that gains nothing is real money burned; stopping one too early leaves value on the table.
+ *
+ * FRONTIER turns the discovery trajectory into a STOP / CONTINUE decision support signal — grounded only
+ * in the observed diminishing-returns of THIS run, not a promise about the future. It estimates the
+ * expected improvement of one more experiment from how the best-so-far has been improving (improvements
+ * get rarer + smaller as you converge), compares it to the run's own noise floor, and — if you tell it
+ * the cost of one experiment — frames that gain against the money. Deterministic + total, so the advice
+ * is reproducible and signable alongside the discovery trace.
+ *
+ * Honest by construction: this is decision SUPPORT, not a guarantee. It says "based on your own curve,
+ * the next experiment looks worth it / not worth it", and abstains to UNKNOWN when there isn't enough
+ * history to tell. It never fabricates a dollar figure — money only appears if you supply a real cost.
+ */
+import { type Observation, type Goal } from "./engine.js";
+export interface StoppingAdvice {
+    n: number;
+    best: number;
+    recentGain: number;
+    expectedGainNext: number;
+    noiseFloor: number;
+    plateau: boolean;
+    recommendation: "CONTINUE" | "STOP" | "UNKNOWN";
+    confidence: number;
+    rationale: string;
+    costPerExperiment: number | null;
+    spentSoFar: number | null;
+    reasonCode: "too-few" | "still-improving" | "plateaued";
+}
+/**
+ * Decide whether the next experiment is worth running.
+ * @param obs               the (experiment, value) history so far, in run order
+ * @param goal              "maximize" | "minimize"
+ * @param costPerExperiment optional real cost of ONE experiment (money/time) — only then is $ math shown
+ * @param window            how many recent experiments define "recent" gain (default 5)
+ */
+export declare function stoppingAdvice(obs: ReadonlyArray<Observation>, goal?: Goal, costPerExperiment?: number | null, window?: number): StoppingAdvice;
+export declare function frontierGauntlet(): {
+    score: 0 | 100;
+    checks: Array<{
+        name: string;
+        pass: boolean;
+        detail: string;
+    }>;
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=frontier.d.ts.map

package/dist/frontier.d.ts.map

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