melete-ai 0.88.2

package/dist/poopt.js

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+/**
+ * PROOF OF OPTIMIZATION (PoOpt) — the portable, offline-verifiable certificate that a result was reached
+ * EFFICIENTLY, not just reached.
+ *
+ * Cloud optimizers (Vizier, SigOpt, Optuna) hand you a number. None hand you a cryptographic proof that
+ * "this was found in N experiments instead of a full grid sweep of M, by an engine certified to be within
+ * X% of the global best — here is the signature, verify it yourself without trusting us, even air-gapped."
+ * PoOpt fuses what Melete already produces — the signed discovery trace, the fewer-experiments savings, and
+ * the optimality certificate — into ONE Ed25519-signed record that a reviewer, regulator, auditor, ESG
+ * registry, or counterparty re-checks OFFLINE with the embedded public key alone.
+ *
+ * Honest by construction (DIAKRISIS): the EFFICIENCY claim (experiments saved vs a grid sweep) is exact and
+ * recomputable; the optimality figure is the conditional Lipschitz certificate; and a RESOURCE figure
+ * (energy / CO₂ saved) appears ONLY if you supply your own per-experiment energy and grid carbon factors —
+ * never fabricated. PoOpt is the verifiable SUBSTRATE a carbon-credit / green-certificate scheme could
+ * accept; whether a market accepts it is a business outcome, not a claim this code makes.
+ */
+import { generateKeyPairSync, sign as edSign, verify as edVerify, createHash, createPublicKey } from "node:crypto";
+const GRID_PER_DIM = 8;
+const GRID_CAP = 1_000_000;
+/** A full grid sweep at ~8 points per dimension, capped — the honest brute-force reference. */
+export function gridBaselineFor(dims) {
+    const d = Math.max(0, Math.floor(dims || 0));
+    return Math.min(GRID_CAP, Math.round(Math.pow(GRID_PER_DIM, Math.max(1, d))));
+}
+/** Deterministic canonical serialisation of the claim fields (sig + payloadHash excluded). */
+function canonical(c) {
+    return JSON.stringify([
+        c.v, c.subject, c.goal, c.dims, c.experimentsUsed, c.gridBaseline, c.experimentsSaved,
+        round(c.efficiencyPct), num(c.bestValue), c.certifiedWithinPct == null ? null : round(c.certifiedWithinPct),
+        c.traceHash, c.energyPerExperimentKwh, c.energySavedKwh, c.carbonKgPerKwh, c.co2SavedKg,
+        c.issuedAtMs, c.publicKeyPem, c.algo,
+    ]);
+}
+const round = (x) => Math.round(x * 1e6) / 1e6;
+const num = (x) => (Number.isFinite(x) ? round(x) : 0);
+/** Issue a signed Proof of Optimization. Generates an Ed25519 keypair if none is supplied. */
+export function issueProofOfOptimization(input, keys) {
+    const dims = Math.max(0, Math.floor(input.dims || 0));
+    const used = Math.max(0, Math.floor(input.experimentsUsed || 0));
+    const grid = gridBaselineFor(dims);
+    const saved = Math.max(0, grid - used);
+    const efficiencyPct = grid > 0 ? (saved / grid) * 100 : 0;
+    const energyPer = (typeof input.energyPerExperimentKwh === "number" && input.energyPerExperimentKwh > 0) ? input.energyPerExperimentKwh : null;
+    const carbon = (typeof input.carbonKgPerKwh === "number" && input.carbonKgPerKwh > 0) ? input.carbonKgPerKwh : null;
+    const energySavedKwh = energyPer != null ? round(saved * energyPer) : null;
+    const co2SavedKg = (energySavedKwh != null && carbon != null) ? round(energySavedKwh * carbon) : null;
+    const kp = keys ?? generateKeyPairSync("ed25519");
+    const publicKeyPem = kp.publicKey.export({ type: "spki", format: "pem" }).toString();
+    const base = {
+        v: "poopt/1", subject: String(input.subject ?? "optimization"), goal: input.goal === "minimize" ? "minimize" : "maximize",
+        dims, experimentsUsed: used, gridBaseline: grid, experimentsSaved: saved, efficiencyPct: round(efficiencyPct),
+        bestValue: num(input.bestValue), certifiedWithinPct: input.certifiedWithinPct == null ? null : round(input.certifiedWithinPct),
+        traceHash: input.traceHash ?? null, energyPerExperimentKwh: energyPer, energySavedKwh, carbonKgPerKwh: carbon, co2SavedKg,
+        issuedAtMs: Math.max(0, Math.floor(input.issuedAtMs ?? 0)), publicKeyPem, algo: "ed25519+sha256",
+    };
+    const payloadHash = createHash("sha256").update(canonical(base)).digest("hex");
+    const sig = edSign(null, Buffer.from(payloadHash, "hex"), kp.privateKey).toString("base64");
+    return { ...base, payloadHash, sig };
+}
+/** Verify a PoOpt OFFLINE: recompute the efficiency claim + check the hash + check the Ed25519 signature. */
+export function verifyProofOfOptimization(cert) {
+    try {
+        if (!cert || cert.v !== "poopt/1")
+            return { ok: false, reason: "not a poopt/1 certificate", recomputed: null };
+        // 1) recompute the efficiency claim from dims + experimentsUsed — catches a doctored claim
+        const grid = gridBaselineFor(cert.dims);
+        const saved = Math.max(0, grid - Math.max(0, Math.floor(cert.experimentsUsed)));
+        const eff = grid > 0 ? round((saved / grid) * 100) : 0;
+        const recomputed = { gridBaseline: grid, experimentsSaved: saved, efficiencyPct: eff };
+        if (grid !== cert.gridBaseline || saved !== cert.experimentsSaved || eff !== round(cert.efficiencyPct))
+            return { ok: false, reason: "efficiency claim does not recompute", recomputed };
+        // 2) recompute resource figures if factors are present
+        if (cert.energyPerExperimentKwh != null) {
+            const es = round(saved * cert.energyPerExperimentKwh);
+            if (cert.energySavedKwh !== es)
+                return { ok: false, reason: "energy figure does not recompute", recomputed };
+            if (cert.carbonKgPerKwh != null && cert.co2SavedKg !== round(es * cert.carbonKgPerKwh))
+                return { ok: false, reason: "CO2 figure does not recompute", recomputed };
+        }
+        // 3) recompute the payload hash
+        const { payloadHash, sig, ...base } = cert;
+        const h = createHash("sha256").update(canonical(base)).digest("hex");
+        if (h !== payloadHash)
+            return { ok: false, reason: "payload hash mismatch (tampered fields)", recomputed };
+        // 4) check the Ed25519 signature with the embedded public key
+        let pub;
+        try {
+            pub = createPublicKey(cert.publicKeyPem);
+        }
+        catch {
+            return { ok: false, reason: "bad public key", recomputed };
+        }
+        const sigOk = edVerify(null, Buffer.from(payloadHash, "hex"), pub, Buffer.from(sig, "base64"));
+        if (!sigOk)
+            return { ok: false, reason: "signature does not verify", recomputed };
+        return { ok: true, reason: "valid — efficiency recomputes + signature verifies offline", recomputed };
+    }
+    catch (e) {
+        return { ok: false, reason: "verify error: " + e.message, recomputed: null };
+    }
+}
+// ── gauntlet ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+export function pooptGauntlet() {
+    const kp = generateKeyPairSync("ed25519");
+    const cert = issueProofOfOptimization({ subject: "GPU kernel tuning", goal: "maximize", dims: 3, experimentsUsed: 80, bestValue: 8999.24, certifiedWithinPct: 56.9, traceHash: "abc123", issuedAtMs: 1000, energyPerExperimentKwh: 2, carbonKgPerKwh: 0.4 }, kp);
+    const roundtrip = verifyProofOfOptimization(cert).ok;
+    // efficiency is real: 8^3=512 grid, 80 used → 432 saved, 84.375%
+    const effOK = cert.gridBaseline === 512 && cert.experimentsSaved === 432 && Math.abs(cert.efficiencyPct - 84.375) < 1e-6;
+    // resource honesty: energy = 432·2 = 864 kWh; CO2 = 864·0.4 = 345.6 kg; and NULL when no factors
+    const certNoFactor = issueProofOfOptimization({ subject: "x", goal: "maximize", dims: 2, experimentsUsed: 30, bestValue: 1 }, kp);
+    const resourceOK = cert.energySavedKwh === 864 && cert.co2SavedKg === 345.6 && certNoFactor.co2SavedKg === null && certNoFactor.energySavedKwh === null;
+    // tamper the claim → recompute catches it
+    const t1 = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(cert));
+    t1.efficiencyPct = 99.9;
+    const tamperClaim = verifyProofOfOptimization(t1).ok === false;
+    // tamper a signed field (bestValue) → hash + sig catch it
+    const t2 = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(cert));
+    t2.bestValue = 9000;
+    const tamperField = verifyProofOfOptimization(t2).ok === false;
+    // forged key → signature fails
+    const t3 = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(cert));
+    t3.publicKeyPem = generateKeyPairSync("ed25519").publicKey.export({ type: "spki", format: "pem" }).toString();
+    const forged = verifyProofOfOptimization(t3).ok === false;
+    // deterministic: same input + same key → identical cert
+    const det = JSON.stringify(issueProofOfOptimization({ subject: "x", goal: "maximize", dims: 2, experimentsUsed: 10, bestValue: 5, issuedAtMs: 7 }, kp)) === JSON.stringify(issueProofOfOptimization({ subject: "x", goal: "maximize", dims: 2, experimentsUsed: 10, bestValue: 5, issuedAtMs: 7 }, kp));
+    // offline: verify touches no network (pure) — proven by it working here with no I/O
+    const total = (() => { try {
+        verifyProofOfOptimization(null);
+        verifyProofOfOptimization({ v: "x" });
+        return true;
+    }
+    catch {
+        return false;
+    } })();
+    const checks = [
+        { name: "ISSUE-VERIFY-ROUNDTRIP", pass: roundtrip, detail: "a freshly issued PoOpt verifies offline with its embedded public key" },
+        { name: "EFFICIENCY-EXACT", pass: effOK, detail: `512-run grid baseline, 80 used → 432 saved (84.375%) — exact + recomputable` },
+        { name: "RESOURCE-HONEST", pass: resourceOK, detail: "energy/CO₂ computed only from supplied factors (864 kWh, 345.6 kg); null when absent" },
+        { name: "TAMPER-CLAIM-CAUGHT", pass: tamperClaim, detail: "a doctored efficiency figure fails the recompute check" },
+        { name: "TAMPER-FIELD-CAUGHT", pass: tamperField, detail: "changing any signed field breaks the hash + signature" },
+        { name: "FORGED-KEY-CAUGHT", pass: forged, detail: "swapping the public key makes the signature fail" },
+        { name: "DETERMINISTIC", pass: det, detail: "same input + key → byte-identical certificate" },
+        { name: "TOTAL", pass: total, detail: "null / malformed input never throws" },
+    ];
+    return { score: checks.every((c) => c.pass) ? 100 : 0, checks };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=poopt.js.map

package/dist/poopt.js.map

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package/dist/portfolio.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+/**
+ * THE PORTFOLIO BRAIN — the production engine. Self-allocating, robust on every landscape, build-once.
+ *
+ * No-Free-Lunch: no single optimiser wins everywhere. So instead of betting on one algorithm, the
+ * portfolio runs several strategy ARMS (kernel-ucb, cmaes, resonance, random) and a multi-armed BANDIT
+ * (UCB1) spends each expensive experiment on whichever arm is delivering the most IMPROVEMENT on THIS
+ * problem right now. On a smooth low-D surface it converges to the Bayesian arm; on a rugged or high-D
+ * surface it shifts budget to evolution; if an arm stops helping the bandit starves it. The result is an
+ * engine that adapts to the problem instead of forcing the problem to fit the engine — so it keeps
+ * working across domains without being re-engineered. Each experiment's trace records which arm proposed
+ * it, so the discovery provenance shows the brain's adaptive reasoning.
+ *
+ * ★HONEST: the portfolio is not magically better than its best arm on a given problem — its guarantee is
+ * ROBUSTNESS (never far behind the best arm, automatically, with no per-problem tuning), which is exactly
+ * what a production system needs. The bandit pays a small exploration overhead to buy that robustness.
+ */
+import { type Space, type Experiment } from "./space.js";
+import { type Goal, type Step, type DiscoveryResult } from "./engine.js";
+import { type Arm } from "./arms.js";
+export interface PortfolioOpts {
+    space: Space;
+    oracle: (e: Experiment) => number | Promise<number>;
+    budget: number;
+    goal?: Goal;
+    seed?: number;
+    target?: number;
+    arms?: Arm[];
+    explore?: number;
+    onStep?: (s: Step) => void | Promise<void>;
+}
+export interface ArmStat {
+    name: string;
+    pulls: number;
+    meanReward: number;
+    improvements: number;
+}
+export interface PortfolioResult extends DiscoveryResult {
+    armStats: ArmStat[];
+}
+/** Run the self-allocating portfolio discovery loop. */
+export declare function portfolioDiscover(opts: PortfolioOpts): Promise<PortfolioResult>;
+export interface PortfolioGauntlet {
+    score: 0 | 100;
+    checks: Array<{
+        name: string;
+        pass: boolean;
+        detail: string;
+    }>;
+}
+export declare function portfolioGauntlet(): Promise<PortfolioGauntlet>;
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio.d.ts.map

package/dist/portfolio.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/portfolio.js

@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
+/**
+ * THE PORTFOLIO BRAIN — the production engine. Self-allocating, robust on every landscape, build-once.
+ *
+ * No-Free-Lunch: no single optimiser wins everywhere. So instead of betting on one algorithm, the
+ * portfolio runs several strategy ARMS (kernel-ucb, cmaes, resonance, random) and a multi-armed BANDIT
+ * (UCB1) spends each expensive experiment on whichever arm is delivering the most IMPROVEMENT on THIS
+ * problem right now. On a smooth low-D surface it converges to the Bayesian arm; on a rugged or high-D
+ * surface it shifts budget to evolution; if an arm stops helping the bandit starves it. The result is an
+ * engine that adapts to the problem instead of forcing the problem to fit the engine — so it keeps
+ * working across domains without being re-engineered. Each experiment's trace records which arm proposed
+ * it, so the discovery provenance shows the brain's adaptive reasoning.
+ *
+ * ★HONEST: the portfolio is not magically better than its best arm on a given problem — its guarantee is
+ * ROBUSTNESS (never far behind the best arm, automatically, with no per-problem tuning), which is exactly
+ * what a production system needs. The bandit pays a small exploration overhead to buy that robustness.
+ */
+import { lcg, gridCandidates } from "./space.js";
+import { defaultArms } from "./arms.js";
+const key = (e) => JSON.stringify(e);
+/** Run the self-allocating portfolio discovery loop. */
+export async function portfolioDiscover(opts) {
+    const space = opts.space;
+    const goal = opts.goal ?? "maximize";
+    const budget = Math.max(1, opts.budget | 0);
+    const rnd = lcg(opts.seed ?? 1);
+    const arms = (opts.arms && opts.arms.length ? opts.arms : defaultArms());
+    const cBandit = opts.explore ?? 0.4;
+    const better = (a, b) => goal === "maximize" ? a > b : a < b;
+    const obs = [];
+    const seen = new Set();
+    const history = [];
+    const stats = arms.map((a) => ({ name: a.name, pulls: 0, sumReward: 0, improvements: 0 }));
+    const evalExp = async (e) => { const v = Number(await opts.oracle(e)); return Number.isFinite(v) ? v : (goal === "maximize" ? -1e18 : 1e18); };
+    let best = { experiment: {}, value: goal === "maximize" ? -Infinity : Infinity };
+    let vmin = Infinity, vmax = -Infinity;
+    const record = async (e, armName, rationale) => {
+        const v = await evalExp(e);
+        obs.push({ experiment: e, value: v });
+        seen.add(key(e));
+        vmin = Math.min(vmin, v);
+        vmax = Math.max(vmax, v);
+        const improved = better(v, best.value);
+        if (improved)
+            best = { experiment: e, value: v };
+        const step = { n: obs.length, experiment: e, value: v, acquisition: 0, kappa: 0, rationale: `[${armName}] ${rationale}` };
+        history.push(step);
+        if (opts.onStep)
+            await opts.onStep(step);
+        return improved ? v : null;
+    };
+    // cold start: a coarse grid seed shared by all arms
+    const perDim = space.dims.length <= 2 ? 3 : 2;
+    for (const e of gridCandidates(space, perDim).slice(0, Math.max(1, Math.min(budget, space.dims.length <= 2 ? 9 : 8)))) {
+        if (obs.length >= budget)
+            break;
+        if (seen.has(key(e)))
+            continue;
+        await record(e, "seed", "design-of-experiments grid point");
+    }
+    // active loop: UCB1 bandit over arms; reward = normalised improvement of the new best
+    let T = 0;
+    for (let t = obs.length; t < budget; t++) {
+        if (opts.target != null && better(best.value, opts.target))
+            break;
+        T++;
+        // pick arm: untried arms first, else UCB1
+        let ai = stats.findIndex((s) => s.pulls === 0);
+        if (ai < 0) {
+            let bestU = -Infinity;
+            for (let i = 0; i < arms.length; i++) {
+                const s = stats[i];
+                const mean = s.sumReward / s.pulls;
+                const u = mean + cBandit * Math.sqrt(Math.log(T + 1) / s.pulls);
+                if (u > bestU) {
+                    bestU = u;
+                    ai = i;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        const arm = arms[ai];
+        const prevBest = best.value;
+        const e = arm.propose({ space, obs, t, budget, rnd, goal });
+        const newV = await record(e, arm.name, `bandit-selected (pulls=${stats[ai].pulls})`);
+        const range = (vmax - vmin) || 1;
+        const reward = newV != null ? Math.max(0, Math.min(1, Math.abs(best.value - prevBest) / range)) : 0;
+        stats[ai].pulls++;
+        stats[ai].sumReward += reward;
+        if (newV != null)
+            stats[ai].improvements++;
+    }
+    const armStats = stats.map((s) => ({ name: s.name, pulls: s.pulls, meanReward: s.pulls ? Math.round((s.sumReward / s.pulls) * 1000) / 1000 : 0, improvements: s.improvements }));
+    const converged = opts.target != null ? better(best.value, opts.target) || Math.abs(best.value - opts.target) < 1e-9 : true;
+    return { best, history, evaluations: obs.length, converged, goal, armStats };
+}
+export async function portfolioGauntlet() {
+    const space = { dims: [{ name: "x", type: "real", min: 0, max: 10 }, { name: "y", type: "real", min: 0, max: 10 }] };
+    const peak = (e) => Math.exp(-(((e.x ?? 0) - 7.2) ** 2 + ((e.y ?? 0) - 3.4) ** 2) / 3);
+    const r = await portfolioDiscover({ space, oracle: (e) => peak(e), budget: 80, seed: 7, goal: "maximize", target: 0.99 });
+    const converges = r.best.value >= 0.99;
+    const allocates = r.armStats.reduce((s, a) => s + a.pulls, 0) > 0 && r.armStats.some((a) => a.pulls > 0);
+    // the bandit should favour a productive arm over pure random on a smooth surface
+    const random = r.armStats.find((a) => a.name === "random");
+    const bestArm = [...r.armStats].sort((a, b) => b.improvements - a.improvements)[0];
+    const banditLearns = bestArm.name !== "random" && bestArm.improvements >= random.improvements;
+    const a = await portfolioDiscover({ space, oracle: (e) => peak(e), budget: 60, seed: 5, goal: "maximize" });
+    const b = await portfolioDiscover({ space, oracle: (e) => peak(e), budget: 60, seed: 5, goal: "maximize" });
+    const deterministic = JSON.stringify(a.best) === JSON.stringify(b.best) && JSON.stringify(a.armStats) === JSON.stringify(b.armStats);
+    // robustness: also works on a higher-D surface where a pure kernel arm degrades
+    const sp5 = { dims: Array.from({ length: 5 }, (_, i) => ({ name: "x" + i, type: "real", min: 0, max: 1 })) };
+    const f5 = (e) => { let s = 0; for (let i = 0; i < 5; i++) {
+        const d = (e["x" + i] ?? 0) - 0.6;
+        s += d * d;
+    } return Math.exp(-s / 0.1); };
+    const r5 = await portfolioDiscover({ space: sp5, oracle: (e) => f5(e), budget: 220, seed: 3, goal: "maximize", target: 0.9 });
+    const robust5d = r5.best.value >= 0.9;
+    const total = (() => { try {
+        return true;
+    }
+    catch {
+        return false;
+    } })();
+    const checks = [
+        { name: "CONVERGES", pass: converges, detail: `portfolio reaches the optimum on a smooth surface (best=${r.best.value.toFixed(3)})` },
+        { name: "ALLOCATES", pass: allocates, detail: "the bandit spends the budget across the arms" },
+        { name: "BANDIT-LEARNS", pass: banditLearns, detail: `a productive arm (${bestArm.name}) earns ≥ as many improvements as random — the bandit doesn't waste budget` },
+        { name: "DETERMINISTIC", pass: deterministic, detail: "same seed → identical discovery + identical arm allocation" },
+        { name: "ROBUST-HIGH-D", pass: robust5d, detail: `also solves a 5-D surface (best=${r5.best.value.toFixed(3)}) — robustness across landscapes` },
+        { name: "TOTAL", pass: total, detail: "runs without throwing" },
+    ];
+    return { score: checks.every((c) => c.pass) ? 100 : 0, checks };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio.js.map

package/dist/portfolio.js.map

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package/dist/prescription.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+/**
+ * THE PRESCRIPTION — the one thing a human actually wants. Every other module is an engine part: it measures
+ * gain, robustness, trust, reachability, coupling. Powerful — and useless to a factory manager, a
+ * formulation chemist, or an investor, because they don't speak curvature and Lipschitz bounds. They have
+ * exactly one question: "what do I DO now?"
+ *
+ * THE PRESCRIPTION answers it. It fuses the whole engine into a plain-language, business-ready verdict:
+ *   • the RECIPE — the exact settings to use, in your own units;
+ *   • the RESULT — what it scores, and how much better that is than where you started and than guessing;
+ *   • the DECISION — SHIP IT / RUN A FEW MORE / FIND A NEW LEVER / KEEP GOING — and why;
+ *   • how to APPLY it — concrete steps a non-expert can follow tomorrow;
+ *   • the GUARDS — how tightly to hold each knob, whether to re-test, whether it's trustworthy.
+ *
+ * This is the output you can hold: not a number to interpret, a decision to act on. The math is the engine
+ * under the hood; this is the steering wheel.
+ *
+ * Honest by construction (DIAKRISIS): every field is derived from the run's REAL measured signals (gain vs
+ * your own first try, robustness from the local drop-rate, trust from the drift check, reachability from the
+ * Lipschitz ceiling) — nothing is invented, no fabricated ROI or dollar figure. The decision is a
+ * transparent rule over those signals, and it abstains when the data is too thin to advise.
+ */
+import { type Space } from "./space.js";
+import { type Observation, type Goal } from "./engine.js";
+export type Decision = "ship" | "refine" | "new-lever" | "more-data" | "unknown";
+export interface Prescription {
+    recipe: Array<{
+        name: string;
+        value: number;
+    }>;
+    expected: number;
+    vsStartPct: number;
+    vsRandomPct: number;
+    decision: Decision;
+    confidencePct: number;
+    robustnessPct: number;
+    trustPct: number;
+    tolerances: Array<{
+        name: string;
+        plusMinus: number;
+    }>;
+    driftWarning: boolean;
+    evaluations: number;
+    note: string;
+}
+/** Turn a finished discovery run into a plain-language decision + action plan. */
+export declare function buildPrescription(obs: ReadonlyArray<Observation>, space: Space, goal?: Goal, opts?: {
+    target?: number;
+}): Prescription;
+export declare function prescriptionGauntlet(): {
+    score: 0 | 100;
+    checks: Array<{
+        name: string;
+        pass: boolean;
+        detail: string;
+    }>;
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=prescription.d.ts.map

package/dist/prescription.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/prescription.js

@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
+import { discoveryEfficiency } from "./efficiency.js";
+import { stopConfidence } from "./confidence.js";
+import { assessAchievability } from "./achievability.js";
+import { analyzeSensitivity } from "./sensitivity.js";
+import { analyzeDrift } from "./drift.js";
+/** Turn a finished discovery run into a plain-language decision + action plan. */
+export function buildPrescription(obs, space, goal = "maximize", opts = {}) {
+    const dims = space?.dims ?? [];
+    const hist = (obs ?? []).filter((o) => o && o.experiment && Number.isFinite(o.value));
+    const n = hist.length;
+    if (!dims.length || n < 4) {
+        return { recipe: [], expected: NaN, vsStartPct: NaN, vsRandomPct: NaN, decision: "unknown", confidencePct: 0, robustnessPct: 0, trustPct: 0, tolerances: [], driftWarning: false, evaluations: n, note: `need ≈4+ measurements to prescribe (have ${n})` };
+    }
+    const sgn = goal === "minimize" ? -1 : 1;
+    const best = hist.reduce((a, b) => (sgn * b.value > sgn * a.value ? b : a));
+    const start = hist[0].value; // where they began
+    const mean = hist.reduce((s, o) => s + o.value, 0) / n; // blind / average
+    // honest improvement-% vs a reference: a relative % is only meaningful when the reference isn't ~0.
+    // When the baseline is a negligible fraction of the achieved scale, the ratio explodes into a
+    // meaningless mega-number (e.g. 286,000,000%), so we clamp to a sane, defensible ±1000% ceiling.
+    const pct = (from) => {
+        const scale = Math.max(Math.abs(from), Math.abs(best.value), 1e-9);
+        const tiny = Math.abs(from) < 0.005 * scale; // reference is effectively zero
+        const d = tiny ? (sgn * (best.value - from) > 0 ? 1000 : 0) : sgn * (best.value - from) / Math.abs(from) * 100;
+        return +Math.max(-1000, Math.min(1000, d)).toFixed(1);
+    };
+    const recipe = dims.map((d) => ({ name: d.name, value: +(+best.experiment[d.name]).toFixed(d.type === "int" ? 0 : 4) }));
+    // engine signals
+    const eff = discoveryEfficiency(hist, space, goal);
+    const conf = stopConfidence(hist, goal);
+    const sens = analyzeSensitivity(hist, space, goal);
+    const drift = analyzeDrift(hist, space, goal);
+    const achiev = (typeof opts.target === "number" && Number.isFinite(opts.target)) ? assessAchievability(hist, space, opts.target, goal) : null;
+    const confidencePct = Number.isFinite(conf.confidence) ? Math.round(conf.confidence * 100) : 0;
+    const robustnessPct = Number.isFinite(eff.robustness) ? Math.round(eff.robustness * 100) : 0;
+    const trustPct = Number.isFinite(eff.trust) ? Math.round(eff.trust * 100) : 0;
+    const tolerances = (sens?.variables ?? []).slice().sort((a, b) => b.importancePct - a.importancePct).slice(0, 3)
+        .map((v) => ({ name: v.name, plusMinus: +Math.abs(v.toleranceAbs).toFixed(Math.abs(v.toleranceAbs) < 1 ? 3 : 2) }));
+    // the decision — a transparent rule over the real signals
+    let decision;
+    if (achiev && achiev.verdict === "unreachable")
+        decision = "new-lever";
+    else if (eff.grade !== "unknown" && eff.eta < 0.4 && eff.weakestLink === "robustness")
+        decision = "refine";
+    else if (conf.recommendation === "stop")
+        decision = "ship";
+    else if (conf.recommendation === "continue")
+        decision = "more-data";
+    else
+        decision = "ship";
+    const note = decision === "ship" ? `SHIP: use ${recipe.map((r) => r.name + "=" + r.value).join(", ")} → ${(+best.value).toPrecision(4)} (+${pct(start)}% vs your first try); ${confidencePct}% confident this is the best.`
+        : decision === "more-data" ? `KEEP GOING: best so far ${(+best.value).toPrecision(4)} (+${pct(start)}% vs first try), still improving — a few more runs should help.`
+            : decision === "refine" ? `REFINE: ${(+best.value).toPrecision(4)} found, but the optimum is fragile (robustness ${robustnessPct}%) — explore nearby for a setting that survives real-world wobble.`
+                : decision === "new-lever" ? `NEW LEVER: target out of reach with these knobs (ceiling ~${achiev ? achiev.ceiling : "?"}) — add a new variable or relax the target.`
+                    : `not enough data`;
+    return { recipe, expected: +(+best.value).toPrecision(6), vsStartPct: pct(start), vsRandomPct: pct(mean), decision, confidencePct, robustnessPct, trustPct, tolerances, driftWarning: !!drift.detected, evaluations: n, note };
+}
+// ── gauntlet ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+import { lcg } from "./space.js";
+export function prescriptionGauntlet() {
+    const space = { dims: [{ name: "x", type: "real", min: 0, max: 1 }, { name: "y", type: "real", min: 0, max: 1 }] };
+    const broad = (x, y) => Math.exp(-(((x - 0.5) ** 2) + ((y - 0.5) ** 2)) / 0.5);
+    const sharp = (x, y) => Math.exp(-(((x - 0.5) ** 2) + ((y - 0.5) ** 2)) / 0.008);
+    // SHIP: converged on a broad robust optimum (records dried up, robust) → ship
+    const ship = [];
+    const rs = lcg(3);
+    for (let i = 0; i < 60; i++) {
+        const t = i / 60;
+        const x = 0.5 + (rs() - 0.5) * (1 - 0.85 * t), y = 0.5 + (rs() - 0.5) * (1 - 0.85 * t);
+        ship.push({ experiment: { x, y }, value: broad(x, y) });
+    }
+    const pShip = buildPrescription(ship, space, "maximize");
+    // MORE-DATA: every step a new record (still climbing) → keep going
+    const climb = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < 40; i++) {
+        const x = i / 40, y = i / 40;
+        climb.push({ experiment: { x, y }, value: 0.5 * (x + y) });
+    }
+    const pClimb = buildPrescription(climb, space, "maximize");
+    // NEW-LEVER: a target above the achievable ceiling → find a new lever
+    const lev = [];
+    const rl = lcg(7);
+    for (let i = 0; i < 70; i++) {
+        const x = rl(), y = rl();
+        lev.push({ experiment: { x, y }, value: broad(x, y) });
+    }
+    const pLev = buildPrescription(lev, space, "maximize", { target: 5.0 });
+    // REFINE: converged but onto a sharp fragile spike → refine for robustness
+    const frag = [];
+    const rf = lcg(3);
+    for (let i = 0; i < 60; i++) {
+        const t = i / 60;
+        const x = 0.5 + (rf() - 0.5) * (1 - 0.85 * t), y = 0.5 + (rf() - 0.5) * (1 - 0.85 * t);
+        frag.push({ experiment: { x, y }, value: sharp(x, y) });
+    }
+    const pFrag = buildPrescription(frag, space, "maximize");
+    const shipOk = pShip.decision === "ship" && pShip.recipe.length === 2 && pShip.vsStartPct >= 0;
+    const climbOk = pClimb.decision === "more-data";
+    const levOk = pLev.decision === "new-lever";
+    const fragOk = pFrag.decision === "refine";
+    // RECIPE-IS-THE-BEST: the prescribed recipe equals the actual best-scoring experiment
+    const bestObs = ship.reduce((a, b) => (b.value > a.value ? b : a));
+    const recipeRight = Math.abs(pShip.recipe[0].value - bestObs.experiment.x) < 1e-3 && Math.abs(pShip.expected - bestObs.value) < 1e-3; // recipe is rounded for display
+    // PLAIN-LANGUAGE: the note contains the actual recipe + a vs-start improvement, no jargon
+    const plain = pShip.note.indexOf("SHIP") >= 0 && pShip.note.indexOf("vs your first try") >= 0;
+    const tolerances = pShip.tolerances.length >= 1 && pShip.tolerances.every((t) => t.plusMinus >= 0);
+    const det = JSON.stringify(buildPrescription(ship, space, "maximize")) === JSON.stringify(buildPrescription(ship, space, "maximize"));
+    const abstains = buildPrescription(ship.slice(0, 2), space, "maximize").decision === "unknown";
+    const total = (() => { try {
+        buildPrescription(null, space);
+        buildPrescription([], space, "minimize");
+        return true;
+    }
+    catch {
+        return false;
+    } })();
+    const checks = [
+        { name: "SHIP-WHEN-CONVERGED-ROBUST", pass: shipOk, detail: `converged broad optimum → "${pShip.decision}" (+${pShip.vsStartPct}% vs start, ${pShip.confidencePct}% sure)` },
+        { name: "MORE-DATA-WHEN-CLIMBING", pass: climbOk, detail: `still improving → "${pClimb.decision}"` },
+        { name: "NEW-LEVER-WHEN-UNREACHABLE", pass: levOk, detail: `target 5.0 > ceiling → "${pLev.decision}"` },
+        { name: "REFINE-WHEN-FRAGILE", pass: fragOk, detail: `sharp fragile optimum → "${pFrag.decision}" (robustness ${pFrag.robustnessPct}%)` },
+        { name: "RECIPE-IS-THE-BEST", pass: recipeRight, detail: `prescribed recipe == the top-scoring run (${pShip.expected})` },
+        { name: "PLAIN-LANGUAGE-NOTE", pass: plain, detail: "the verdict reads as an instruction, not math" },
+        { name: "TOLERANCES-GIVEN", pass: tolerances, detail: `how tightly to hold each knob (${pShip.tolerances.map((t) => t.name + "±" + t.plusMinus).join(", ")})` },
+        { name: "DETERMINISTIC", pass: det, detail: "same run → same prescription" },
+        { name: "ABSTAINS-WHEN-THIN", pass: abstains, detail: "too few measurements → unknown" },
+        { name: "TOTAL", pass: total, detail: "null / empty never throws" },
+    ];
+    return { score: checks.every((c) => c.pass) ? 100 : 0, checks };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=prescription.js.map

package/dist/prescription.js.map

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