melete-ai 0.88.2

package/dist/sovereign.js

@@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
+/**
+ * SOVEREIGN — the ecosystem spine. Melete is "The Sovereign Verifiable AI Analyst & Optimizer": you bring a
+ * system you can MEASURE (an ML pipeline, an infra/DB/network config, a process, a simulation), and in ONE
+ * call Melete plays four roles end-to-end and hands back a single, signed, offline-verifiable verdict:
+ *
+ *   ① DISCOVER  — find the best setting in the fewest experiments
+ *   ② DECIDE    — the Φ brain's safety-first verdict + AEGIS's ROBUST (survives-the-real-world) answer
+ *   ③ DIAGNOSE  — the analyst's plain-language read: which knobs matter, where the cliffs are, the shape,
+ *                 the achievable ceiling, the family of equally-good recipes
+ *   ④ CERTIFY   — an Ed25519-signed PROVENANCE certificate: a tamper-evident record of WHAT was tested and
+ *                 the result reached, verifiable offline with the embedded public key, no Melete needed
+ *
+ * This is the product face (one call, one verdict — usable) AND the moat (sovereign + a signed, vendor-
+ * neutral verdict FORMAT others must speak to audit it). It runs entirely on the caller's machine.
+ *
+ * Honest by construction (DIAKRISIS): "verifiable" means PROVENANCE + REPRODUCIBILITY — the certificate
+ * proves, offline, exactly what was measured and the result found, and that the signed payload wasn't
+ * altered. It is NOT a proof that the customer's code is bug-free or exploit-free (that is undecidable in
+ * general and we refuse to fake it). Every facet of the verdict comes from an independently-tested engine.
+ */
+import { createHash, generateKeyPairSync, sign as edSign, verify as edVerify, createPublicKey } from "node:crypto";
+import { meletePrime } from "./prime.js";
+import { analyzeShape } from "./shape.js";
+import { analyzeCliffs } from "./cliff.js";
+import { analyzeSloppiness } from "./sloppiness.js";
+import { assessAchievability } from "./achievability.js";
+import { analyzeRashomon } from "./rashomon.js";
+/** Stable JSON (sorted keys) so the signed payload hashes identically on every machine. */
+function canonical(o) {
+    if (o === null || typeof o !== "object")
+        return JSON.stringify(o);
+    if (Array.isArray(o))
+        return "[" + o.map(canonical).join(",") + "]";
+    const keys = Object.keys(o).sort();
+    return "{" + keys.map((k) => JSON.stringify(k) + ":" + canonical(o[k])).join(",") + "}";
+}
+/** Run the full Sovereign analysis on a finished (or in-progress) run and sign the verdict. */
+export function sovereignAnalyze(obs, space, goal = "maximize", opts = {}) {
+    const hist = (obs ?? []).filter((o) => o && o.experiment && Number.isFinite(o.value));
+    const sgn = goal === "minimize" ? -1 : 1;
+    const best = hist.length ? hist.reduce((a, b) => (sgn * b.value > sgn * a.value ? b : a)) : null;
+    const prime = safe(() => meletePrime(hist, space, goal));
+    const diagnose = {
+        shape: safe(() => analyzeShape(hist, space, goal)),
+        cliffs: safe(() => analyzeCliffs(hist, space, goal)),
+        sloppiness: safe(() => analyzeSloppiness(hist, space, goal)),
+        achievability: typeof opts.target === "number" ? safe(() => assessAchievability(hist, space, opts.target, goal)) : null,
+        options: safe(() => analyzeRashomon(hist, space, goal)),
+    };
+    const decide = prime
+        ? { processIQ: prime.processIQ ?? NaN, grade: prime.grade ?? "unknown", decision: prime.decisive?.kind ?? "unknown", briefing: prime.briefing ?? "" }
+        : { processIQ: NaN, grade: "unknown", decision: "unknown", briefing: "" };
+    const payload = {
+        product: "Melete — The Sovereign Verifiable AI Analyst & Optimizer",
+        discover: { best, evaluations: hist.length, goal },
+        decide,
+        diagnose,
+        verdict: prime?.briefing ? String(prime.briefing).split(". ")[0] : (best ? `best ${(+best.value).toPrecision(4)} in ${hist.length} experiments` : "no measurements yet"),
+    };
+    // CERTIFY — sign the canonical payload (provenance + reproducibility), verifiable offline
+    const kp = opts.keys ?? generateKeyPairSync("ed25519");
+    const payloadHash = createHash("sha256").update(canonical(payload)).digest("hex");
+    const signature = edSign(null, Buffer.from(payloadHash, "hex"), kp.privateKey).toString("base64");
+    const publicKeyPem = kp.publicKey.export({ type: "spki", format: "pem" }).toString();
+    const certify = { standard: "melete-sovereign-verdict/v1", payloadHash, signature, publicKeyPem, algo: "ed25519+sha256", issuedAtMs: Math.max(0, Math.floor(opts.issuedAtMs ?? 0)) };
+    return { ...payload, certify };
+}
+/** Re-verify a Sovereign Verdict OFFLINE: recompute the payload hash + check the Ed25519 signature. */
+export function verifySovereign(v) {
+    try {
+        if (!v || !v.certify || v.certify.standard !== "melete-sovereign-verdict/v1")
+            return { ok: false, reason: "not a melete-sovereign-verdict/v1 certificate" };
+        const { certify, ...payload } = v;
+        const hash = createHash("sha256").update(canonical(payload)).digest("hex");
+        if (hash !== certify.payloadHash)
+            return { ok: false, reason: "payload hash mismatch — the verdict was altered after signing" };
+        const pub = createPublicKey(certify.publicKeyPem);
+        const ok = edVerify(null, Buffer.from(hash, "hex"), pub, Buffer.from(certify.signature, "base64"));
+        return ok ? { ok: true, reason: "signature valid — provenance verified offline" } : { ok: false, reason: "signature does not match the public key" };
+    }
+    catch (e) {
+        return { ok: false, reason: "verify error: " + e.message.slice(0, 100) };
+    }
+}
+function safe(f) { try {
+    return f();
+}
+catch {
+    return null;
+} }
+// ── gauntlet ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+import { lcg } from "./space.js";
+export function sovereignGauntlet() {
+    const space = { dims: [{ name: "x", type: "real", min: 0, max: 1 }, { name: "y", type: "real", min: 0, max: 1 }] };
+    const f = (x, y) => Math.exp(-(((x - 0.4) ** 2) + ((y - 0.6) ** 2)) / 0.2);
+    const rnd = lcg(7);
+    const obs = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < 50; i++) {
+        const x = rnd(), y = rnd();
+        obs.push({ experiment: { x, y }, value: f(x, y) });
+    }
+    const kp = generateKeyPairSync("ed25519");
+    const v = sovereignAnalyze(obs, space, "maximize", { keys: kp, issuedAtMs: 1000 });
+    const composesLayers = !!v.discover && !!v.decide && !!v.diagnose && !!v.certify && !!v.discover.best
+        && !!v.diagnose.shape && !!v.diagnose.cliffs && !!v.diagnose.sloppiness && !!v.diagnose.options;
+    const signedVerifies = verifySovereign(v).ok === true;
+    // TAMPER: alter the discovered best value → verify must fail
+    const tampered = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(v));
+    if (tampered.discover.best)
+        tampered.discover.best.value = 999;
+    const tamperCaught = verifySovereign(tampered).ok === false;
+    // TAMPER the signature itself
+    const tampered2 = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(v));
+    tampered2.certify.signature = Buffer.from("nope").toString("base64");
+    const sigTamperCaught = verifySovereign(tampered2).ok === false;
+    // a DIFFERENT key cannot validate
+    const v2 = sovereignAnalyze(obs, space, "maximize", { keys: generateKeyPairSync("ed25519"), issuedAtMs: 1000 });
+    const forgedKey = (() => { const swap = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(v)); swap.certify.publicKeyPem = v2.certify.publicKeyPem; return verifySovereign(swap).ok === false; })();
+    // DETERMINISTIC payload (same keys + time → identical signed verdict)
+    const v3 = sovereignAnalyze(obs, space, "maximize", { keys: kp, issuedAtMs: 1000 });
+    const deterministic = canonical(v) === canonical(v3);
+    const usesPrime = v.decide.decision !== "unknown" && Number.isFinite(v.decide.processIQ);
+    const total = (() => { try {
+        const z = sovereignAnalyze([], space, "maximize");
+        verifySovereign(z);
+        sovereignAnalyze(null, space);
+        return true;
+    }
+    catch {
+        return false;
+    } })();
+    const checks = [
+        { name: "COMPOSES-ALL-4-LAYERS", pass: composesLayers, detail: "discover + decide + diagnose + certify all populated in one verdict" },
+        { name: "SIGNED-VERIFIES-OFFLINE", pass: signedVerifies, detail: "the Ed25519 provenance certificate re-verifies with the embedded public key" },
+        { name: "TAMPER-CAUGHT", pass: tamperCaught, detail: "altering the result after signing breaks verification" },
+        { name: "FORGED-SIGNATURE-CAUGHT", pass: sigTamperCaught, detail: "a fake signature is rejected" },
+        { name: "WRONG-KEY-CANNOT-VALIDATE", pass: forgedKey, detail: "swapping in another key fails verification" },
+        { name: "DECISION-FROM-PRIME-BRAIN", pass: usesPrime, detail: `verdict carries the Φ brain's decision (IQ ${v.decide.processIQ}, "${v.decide.decision}")` },
+        { name: "DETERMINISTIC", pass: deterministic, detail: "same data + keys → byte-identical signed verdict" },
+        { name: "TOTAL", pass: total, detail: "empty / null never throws" },
+    ];
+    return { score: checks.every((c) => c.pass) ? 100 : 0, checks };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=sovereign.js.map

package/dist/sovereign.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/space.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+/**
+ * SEARCH SPACE — the set of experiments the brain may propose.
+ *
+ * A space is a list of dimensions, each real (continuous) or int (discrete-integer), with bounds. An
+ * "experiment" is one point in that space (a Record<dim, number>). The brain proposes experiments; the
+ * oracle returns a result per experiment. Deterministic: candidate generation is seeded, so a discovery
+ * run is reproducible (which is what makes the signed trace meaningful).
+ */
+export interface Dim {
+    name: string;
+    type: "real" | "int";
+    min: number;
+    max: number;
+}
+export interface Space {
+    dims: Dim[];
+}
+export type Experiment = Record<string, number>;
+/** Deterministic LCG — reproducible across runs (no Math.random). */
+export declare function lcg(seed: number): () => number;
+export declare function clampExperiment(space: Space, e: Experiment): Experiment;
+/** A coarse grid of `perDim` points per dimension (bounded cartesian) — the cold-start design of experiments. */
+export declare function gridCandidates(space: Space, perDim?: number, cap?: number): Experiment[];
+/** `n` deterministic random candidates (seeded) — the dense candidate pool the acquisition maximises over. */
+export declare function randomCandidates(space: Space, n: number, rnd: () => number): Experiment[];
+/** `n` candidates sampled in a shrinking Gaussian ball around a center — the local refinement that zooms
+ * into an optimum (global random candidates alone can't hit a tight target precisely). radius ∈ (0,1] is a
+ * fraction of each dimension's span. */
+export declare function localCandidates(space: Space, center: Experiment, n: number, radius: number, rnd: () => number): Experiment[];
+export declare function dist2(space: Space, a: Experiment, b: Experiment): number;
+export declare function spaceGauntlet(): {
+    score: 0 | 100;
+    checks: Array<{
+        name: string;
+        pass: boolean;
+    }>;
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=space.d.ts.map

package/dist/space.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"space.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/space.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;GAOG;AACH,MAAM,WAAW,GAAG;IAAG,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAAC,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC;IAAC,GAAG,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAAC,GAAG,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;CAAE;AACrF,MAAM,WAAW,KAAK;IAAG,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAA;CAAE;AACtC,MAAM,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC;AAEhD,qEAAqE;AACrE,wBAAgB,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,MAAM,CAG9C;AAMD,wBAAgB,eAAe,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,UAAU,GAAG,UAAU,CAIvE;AAED,iHAAiH;AACjH,wBAAgB,cAAc,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,SAAI,EAAE,GAAG,SAAO,GAAG,UAAU,EAAE,CAYjF;AAED,8GAA8G;AAC9G,wBAAgB,gBAAgB,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,UAAU,EAAE,CAIzF;AAED;;wCAEwC;AACxC,wBAAgB,eAAe,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,UAAU,EAAE,CAa5H;AAED,wBAAgB,KAAK,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,UAAU,GAAG,MAAM,CAExE;AAGD,wBAAgB,aAAa,IAAI;IAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC;IAAC,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC;QAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,CAAA;KAAE,CAAC,CAAA;CAAE,CAgBlG"}

package/dist/space.js

@@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
+/** Deterministic LCG — reproducible across runs (no Math.random). */
+export function lcg(seed) {
+    let s = (seed >>> 0) || 1;
+    return () => { s = (Math.imul(s, 1103515245) + 12345) >>> 0; return s / 0xffffffff; };
+}
+const clampDim = (d, v) => {
+    const c = Math.max(d.min, Math.min(d.max, v));
+    return d.type === "int" ? Math.round(c) : c;
+};
+export function clampExperiment(space, e) {
+    const out = {};
+    for (const d of space?.dims ?? [])
+        out[d.name] = clampDim(d, Number(e?.[d.name]) || d.min);
+    return out;
+}
+/** A coarse grid of `perDim` points per dimension (bounded cartesian) — the cold-start design of experiments. */
+export function gridCandidates(space, perDim = 4, cap = 8000) {
+    const dims = space?.dims ?? [];
+    if (!dims.length)
+        return [{}];
+    let rows = [{}];
+    for (const d of dims) {
+        const steps = [];
+        const n = Math.max(2, perDim);
+        for (let i = 0; i < n; i++)
+            steps.push(clampDim(d, d.min + (d.max - d.min) * (i / (n - 1))));
+        const next = [];
+        for (const r of rows) {
+            for (const v of steps) {
+                next.push({ ...r, [d.name]: v });
+                if (next.length >= cap)
+                    break;
+            }
+            if (next.length >= cap)
+                break;
+        }
+        rows = next;
+    }
+    return rows;
+}
+/** `n` deterministic random candidates (seeded) — the dense candidate pool the acquisition maximises over. */
+export function randomCandidates(space, n, rnd) {
+    const dims = space?.dims ?? [];
+    const out = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+        const e = {};
+        for (const d of dims)
+            e[d.name] = clampDim(d, d.min + (d.max - d.min) * rnd());
+        out.push(e);
+    }
+    return out;
+}
+/** `n` candidates sampled in a shrinking Gaussian ball around a center — the local refinement that zooms
+ * into an optimum (global random candidates alone can't hit a tight target precisely). radius ∈ (0,1] is a
+ * fraction of each dimension's span. */
+export function localCandidates(space, center, n, radius, rnd) {
+    const dims = space?.dims ?? [];
+    const out = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+        const e = {};
+        for (const d of dims) {
+            const span = d.max - d.min;
+            // box-muller-ish via two uniforms → roughly normal jitter, scaled by radius·span
+            const g = (rnd() + rnd() + rnd() + rnd() - 2) / 2; // ~N(0, ~0.29), bounded
+            e[d.name] = clampDim(d, (Number(center?.[d.name]) || d.min) + g * radius * span);
+        }
+        out.push(e);
+    }
+    return out;
+}
+export function dist2(space, a, b) {
+    let s = 0;
+    for (const d of space?.dims ?? []) {
+        const span = (d.max - d.min) || 1;
+        const dv = ((Number(a?.[d.name]) || 0) - (Number(b?.[d.name]) || 0)) / span;
+        s += dv * dv;
+    }
+    return s; // normalised squared distance
+}
+// ── gauntlet ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+export function spaceGauntlet() {
+    const space = { dims: [{ name: "x", type: "real", min: 0, max: 10 }, { name: "k", type: "int", min: 1, max: 5 }] };
+    const rnd = lcg(42);
+    const grid = gridCandidates(space, 4);
+    const gridOK = grid.length === 16 && grid.every((e) => e.x >= 0 && e.x <= 10 && Number.isInteger(e.k) && e.k >= 1 && e.k <= 5);
+    const rc = randomCandidates(space, 50, rnd);
+    const randOK = rc.length === 50 && rc.every((e) => Number.isInteger(e.k));
+    const determinism = JSON.stringify(randomCandidates(space, 5, lcg(7))) === JSON.stringify(randomCandidates(space, 5, lcg(7)));
+    const clampOK = clampExperiment(space, { x: 999, k: 99 }).x === 10 && clampExperiment(space, { x: -5, k: 0 }).k === 1;
+    const distOK = dist2(space, { x: 0, k: 1 }, { x: 0, k: 1 }) === 0 && dist2(space, { x: 0, k: 1 }, { x: 10, k: 1 }) === 1;
+    const total = (() => { try {
+        gridCandidates(null);
+        randomCandidates(null, 3, rnd);
+        clampExperiment(null, {});
+        dist2(null, {}, {});
+        return true;
+    }
+    catch {
+        return false;
+    } })();
+    const checks = [
+        { name: "GRID", pass: gridOK }, { name: "RANDOM", pass: randOK }, { name: "DETERMINISM", pass: determinism },
+        { name: "CLAMP", pass: clampOK }, { name: "DISTANCE", pass: distOK }, { name: "TOTAL", pass: total },
+    ];
+    return { score: checks.every((c) => c.pass) ? 100 : 0, checks };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=space.js.map

package/dist/space.js.map

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package/dist/surprise.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+/**
+ * BREAKTHROUGH RADAR (SURPRISE) — the result the model never saw coming. Optimization quietly assumes the
+ * response is well-behaved, so it can miss the most important thing that can happen in a real lab: a setting
+ * that performs FAR better (or worse) than everything around it predicts. A surprising high is a possible
+ * breakthrough — a sweet spot, a synergy, a regime nobody expected — and it deserves to be chased, not
+ * averaged away. A surprising low is a warning — a likely measurement error, or a hidden penalty worth
+ * re-checking before you trust it.
+ *
+ * SURPRISE predicts each measurement from all the OTHERS (a leave-one-out stand-in for your process) and
+ * flags the ones whose actual result departs far more than the typical prediction error. It separates them
+ * by direction: a big positive surprise is tagged a potential breakthrough to verify and explore around; a
+ * big negative one is tagged an anomaly to re-check.
+ *
+ * Honest by construction (DIAKRISIS): a surprise is a residual outlier against your own data's smooth trend
+ * — strong EVIDENCE that a point is special, not proof it's a breakthrough (it could still be a lucky
+ * misread; that's exactly why the advice is "verify it"). Distinct from the noise lens (near-neighbour
+ * disagreement / meter reliability); this is departure from the global trend. Abstains on thin data.
+ */
+import { type Space } from "./space.js";
+import { type Observation, type Goal } from "./engine.js";
+export interface SurpriseItem {
+    at: Record<string, number>;
+    value: number;
+    expected: number;
+    sigma: number;
+    direction: "high" | "low";
+}
+export interface SurpriseReport {
+    surprises: SurpriseItem[];
+    breakthrough: SurpriseItem | null;
+    note: string;
+}
+/** Flag measurements that depart far more than usual from what the rest of the data predicts. */
+export declare function analyzeSurprise(obs: ReadonlyArray<Observation>, space: Space, goal?: Goal): SurpriseReport;
+export declare function surpriseGauntlet(): {
+    score: 0 | 100;
+    checks: Array<{
+        name: string;
+        pass: boolean;
+        detail: string;
+    }>;
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=surprise.d.ts.map

package/dist/surprise.d.ts.map

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package/dist/surprise.js

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+const dst = (a, c) => { let s = 0; for (let i = 0; i < a.length; i++)
+    s += (a[i] - c[i]) ** 2; return Math.sqrt(s); };
+/** Flag measurements that depart far more than usual from what the rest of the data predicts. */
+export function analyzeSurprise(obs, space, goal = "maximize") {
+    const dims = space?.dims ?? [];
+    const D = dims.length;
+    const hist = (obs ?? []).filter((o) => o && o.experiment && Number.isFinite(o.value));
+    const n = hist.length;
+    if (D === 0 || n < 8)
+        return { surprises: [], breakthrough: null, note: `need ≈8+ measurements to spot surprises (have ${n})` };
+    const lo = (i) => dims[i].min ?? 0, hi = (i) => dims[i].max ?? 1;
+    const toN = (e) => dims.map((d, i) => { const sp = hi(i) - lo(i) || 1; return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, ((+e[d.name] || 0) - lo(i)) / sp)); });
+    const P = hist.map((o) => toN(o.experiment));
+    const V = hist.map((o) => o.value);
+    const vRange = Math.max(1e-9, Math.max(...V) - Math.min(...V));
+    // leave-one-out LOCAL prediction (k nearest neighbours, IDW) → residual for each point.
+    // k-nearest (not all points) keeps the prediction on the LOCAL trend, so a point on a smooth slope is
+    // predicted well by its neighbours and only a genuine departure stands out — no boundary-bias false alarms.
+    const K = Math.min(6, n - 1);
+    const resid = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+        const near = [];
+        for (let j = 0; j < n; j++) {
+            if (j === i)
+                continue;
+            near.push({ d: dst(P[i], P[j]), v: V[j] });
+        }
+        near.sort((a, b) => a.d - b.d);
+        // MEDIAN of the k nearest values — robust to a single extreme neighbour, so one outlier doesn't
+        // contaminate its neighbours' predictions (which would manufacture phantom surprises).
+        const kv = near.slice(0, K).map((x) => x.v).sort((a, b) => a - b);
+        const pred = kv.length ? kv[Math.floor(kv.length / 2)] : V[i];
+        resid.push(V[i] - pred);
+    }
+    // robust scale = median absolute residual
+    const absR = resid.map((r) => Math.abs(r)).sort((a, b) => a - b);
+    const scale = Math.max(1e-9, absR[Math.floor(n / 2)]);
+    const items = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+        const sigma = resid[i] / scale;
+        if (Math.abs(sigma) > 4 && Math.abs(resid[i]) > 0.25 * vRange) {
+            const at = {};
+            dims.forEach((d, k) => { const real = lo(k) + P[i][k] * (hi(k) - lo(k)); at[d.name] = +(d.type === "int" ? Math.round(real) : +real.toFixed(4)); });
+            let pred = V[i] - resid[i];
+            items.push({ at, value: +V[i].toFixed(6), expected: +pred.toFixed(4), sigma: +Math.abs(sigma).toFixed(1), direction: resid[i] > 0 ? "high" : "low", score: Math.abs(sigma), i });
+        }
+    }
+    items.sort((a, b) => b.score - a.score);
+    const surprises = items.slice(0, 5).map(({ at, value, expected, sigma, direction }) => ({ at, value, expected, sigma, direction }));
+    // a breakthrough = the strongest surprising HIGH in the goal's favoured direction
+    const favHigh = goal !== "minimize";
+    const breakthrough = surprises.find((s) => (favHigh ? s.direction === "high" : s.direction === "low")) ?? null;
+    const fmt = (x) => (Math.abs(x) < 1 ? +x.toFixed(3) : +x.toFixed(2));
+    const note = surprises.length === 0
+        ? "no surprises — every result is in line with the smooth trend of your data"
+        : breakthrough
+            ? `⭐ possible breakthrough: a result of ${fmt(breakthrough.value)} where the trend predicted ~${fmt(breakthrough.expected)} (${breakthrough.sigma}× the usual surprise). Verify it and explore around it.`
+            : `${surprises.length} surprising result${surprises.length > 1 ? "s" : ""} — likely measurement issues; re-check before trusting.`;
+    return { surprises, breakthrough, note };
+}
+// ── gauntlet ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+import { lcg } from "./space.js";
+export function surpriseGauntlet() {
+    const space = { dims: [{ name: "x", type: "real", min: 0, max: 1 }, { name: "y", type: "real", min: 0, max: 1 }] };
+    const smooth = (x, y) => 0.5 * (x + y);
+    // SMOOTH + one injected BREAKTHROUGH spike far above the trend
+    const r1 = lcg(15);
+    const o1 = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < 70; i++) {
+        const x = r1(), y = r1();
+        o1.push({ experiment: { x, y }, value: smooth(x, y) });
+    }
+    o1.push({ experiment: { x: 0.3, y: 0.3 }, value: smooth(0.3, 0.3) + 0.7 }); // a surprising HIGH at (0.3,0.3)
+    const s1 = analyzeSurprise(o1, space, "maximize");
+    const detectsHigh = !!s1.breakthrough && s1.breakthrough.direction === "high";
+    const locatedRight = !!s1.breakthrough && Math.abs(s1.breakthrough.at.x - 0.3) < 0.08 && Math.abs(s1.breakthrough.at.y - 0.3) < 0.08;
+    // PURE SMOOTH → no surprises
+    const r2 = lcg(6);
+    const o2 = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < 80; i++) {
+        const x = r2(), y = r2();
+        o2.push({ experiment: { x, y }, value: smooth(x, y) });
+    }
+    const s2 = analyzeSurprise(o2, space, "maximize");
+    const smoothClean = s2.surprises.length === 0 && s2.breakthrough === null;
+    // a surprising LOW (anomaly / error), not a breakthrough
+    const r3 = lcg(9);
+    const o3 = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < 70; i++) {
+        const x = r3(), y = r3();
+        o3.push({ experiment: { x, y }, value: smooth(x, y) });
+    }
+    o3.push({ experiment: { x: 0.6, y: 0.6 }, value: smooth(0.6, 0.6) - 0.7 });
+    const s3 = analyzeSurprise(o3, space, "maximize");
+    const lowIsAnomaly = s3.surprises.length >= 1 && s3.surprises[0].direction === "low" && s3.breakthrough === null;
+    // bigger spike → bigger sigma
+    const o4 = o1.slice(0, 70).concat([{ experiment: { x: 0.3, y: 0.3 }, value: smooth(0.3, 0.3) + 1.4 }]);
+    const s4 = analyzeSurprise(o4, space, "maximize");
+    const monotone = !!s4.breakthrough && !!s1.breakthrough && s4.breakthrough.sigma >= s1.breakthrough.sigma - 0.1;
+    const det = JSON.stringify(analyzeSurprise(o1, space, "maximize")) === JSON.stringify(analyzeSurprise(o1, space, "maximize"));
+    const abstains = analyzeSurprise(o1.slice(0, 5), space, "maximize").note.indexOf("need") >= 0;
+    const total = (() => { try {
+        analyzeSurprise([], space);
+        analyzeSurprise(null, space);
+        analyzeSurprise(o1, { dims: [] });
+        return true;
+    }
+    catch {
+        return false;
+    } })();
+    const checks = [
+        { name: "DETECTS-BREAKTHROUGH", pass: detectsHigh, detail: `a +0.7 spike on a smooth trend → flagged as a surprising HIGH (${s1.breakthrough?.sigma}×)` },
+        { name: "LOCATES-IT", pass: locatedRight, detail: `breakthrough at (${s1.breakthrough?.at.x}, ${s1.breakthrough?.at.y}) ≈ (0.3, 0.3)` },
+        { name: "SMOOTH-NO-FALSE-SURPRISE", pass: smoothClean, detail: `smooth data → ${s2.surprises.length} surprises (no false alarm)` },
+        { name: "LOW-IS-ANOMALY-NOT-BREAKTHROUGH", pass: lowIsAnomaly, detail: `a surprising LOW → anomaly to re-check, not a breakthrough` },
+        { name: "BIGGER-SPIKE-BIGGER-SIGMA", pass: monotone, detail: `+1.4 spike ≥ +0.7 spike in surprise (${s1.breakthrough?.sigma}→${s4.breakthrough?.sigma})` },
+        { name: "DETERMINISTIC", pass: det, detail: "same data → same surprises" },
+        { name: "ABSTAINS-WHEN-THIN", pass: abstains, detail: "too few measurements → no claim" },
+        { name: "TOTAL", pass: total, detail: "empty / null / no-dims never throws" },
+    ];
+    return { score: checks.every((c) => c.pass) ? 100 : 0, checks };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=surprise.js.map

package/dist/surprise.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/territory.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+/**
+ * TERRITORY — the leap-into-the-unknown detector. Virgin ground no optimizer maps: when the engine hands you
+ * the next experiment, is it a SAFE REFINEMENT (sitting inside the region you've already measured, so the
+ * prediction is supported by data) or a BOLD LEAP (out beyond everything you've tried, where the score is
+ * essentially a guess)?
+ *
+ * For an expensive or dangerous experiment this is the difference between a routine tweak and a shot in the
+ * dark that could waste a batch or stress a machine. Bayesian optimisers deliberately explore into the
+ * unknown — but they never TELL the operator "heads up, this one is a leap". TERRITORY does: it measures how
+ * far a proposal sits from your data relative to the data's own spacing, classifies it refine / explore /
+ * leap, and reports how much of the space you've actually charted (the unexplored gaps).
+ *
+ * Honest by construction (DIAKRISIS): novelty is relative to YOUR sampling density (a leap means "much
+ * farther than your points usually sit from each other", not an absolute safety claim); it abstains with too
+ * little data. Decision support for where you're stepping — not a guarantee the leap is bad (leaps are often
+ * how you find the big win) or that a refinement is correct.
+ */
+import { type Space, type Experiment } from "./space.js";
+import { type Observation } from "./engine.js";
+export interface TerritoryAssessment {
+    classification: "refine" | "explore" | "leap" | "unknown";
+    noveltyScore: number;
+    nearestDist: number;
+    typicalDist: number;
+    note: string;
+}
+/** Is `proposal` a safe refinement inside the measured region, or a leap into unmeasured territory? */
+export declare function assessTerritory(proposal: Experiment, obs: ReadonlyArray<Observation>, space: Space): TerritoryAssessment;
+/** Fraction of the search space that has been charted (a coarse grid; how many cells hold a measurement). */
+export declare function coverageScore(obs: ReadonlyArray<Observation>, space: Space): {
+    coverage: number;
+    cells: number;
+    filled: number;
+};
+export declare function territoryGauntlet(): {
+    score: 0 | 100;
+    checks: Array<{
+        name: string;
+        pass: boolean;
+        detail: string;
+    }>;
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=territory.d.ts.map

package/dist/territory.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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