kanmi-perf-revenue 1.0.0

package/dist/empirical/index.js

@@ -0,0 +1,267 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+/**
+ * Empirical Performance Revenue Engine
+ *
+ * A simpler, more transparent approach to performance-revenue analysis.
+ * Uses actual session-level data to build empirical conversion curves.
+ *
+ * Key differences from coefficient-based models:
+ * - No assumed "0.5% CVR per 100ms LCP" coefficients
+ * - Measures actual CVR at each performance bucket from YOUR data
+ * - More honest about what we know vs. assume
+ *
+ * Usage:
+ *   // With Datadog credentials
+ *   const result = await analyzeWithDatadog({
+ *     apiKey: 'xxx',
+ *     appKey: 'xxx',
+ *     startDate: '2024-01-01',
+ *     endDate: '2024-01-14',
+ *   });
+ *
+ *   // With mock data (for testing)
+ *   const result = analyzeWithMockData({
+ *     sessionCount: 50000,
+ *     startDate: '2024-01-01',
+ *     endDate: '2024-01-14',
+ *   });
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+import { queryDatadogSessions, generateMockSessions, } from './datadog-session-query.js';
+import { buildAllCurves } from './conversion-curve.js';
+import { calculateAllOpportunities, getTopOpportunity, } from './opportunity-calculator.js';
+import { generateReport } from './report.js';
+import { importFromFile } from './data-import.js';
+// =============================================================================
+// MAIN ANALYSIS FUNCTIONS
+// =============================================================================
+/**
+ * Run full analysis using Datadog RUM data.
+ */
+export async function analyzeWithDatadog(options) {
+    // Query Datadog for session data
+    const queryResult = await queryDatadogSessions(options);
+    return processSessionData(queryResult, {
+        clientName: options.clientName,
+        period: queryResult.metadata.period,
+    });
+}
+/**
+ * Run analysis with mock data (for testing/demo).
+ */
+export function analyzeWithMockData(options) {
+    // Generate mock session data
+    const queryResult = generateMockSessions({
+        count: options.sessionCount,
+        startDate: options.startDate,
+        endDate: options.endDate,
+        baseConversionRate: options.baseConversionRate,
+    });
+    return processSessionData(queryResult, {
+        clientName: options.clientName,
+        period: queryResult.metadata.period,
+    });
+}
+/**
+ * Run analysis from CSV or JSON file.
+ * Bring your own data from any source.
+ */
+export function analyzeFromFile(options) {
+    const queryResult = importFromFile(options.filePath, {
+        startDate: options.startDate,
+        endDate: options.endDate,
+    });
+    return processSessionData(queryResult, {
+        clientName: options.clientName,
+        period: queryResult.metadata.period,
+    });
+}
+/**
+ * Process session data through the full analysis pipeline.
+ */
+function processSessionData(queryResult, config) {
+    const { sessions, metadata } = queryResult;
+    // Build empirical conversion curves
+    const curves = buildAllCurves(sessions);
+    // Calculate opportunities
+    const opportunities = calculateAllOpportunities(curves, {
+        periodDays: metadata.period.days,
+    });
+    // Find top opportunity
+    const topOpp = getTopOpportunity(opportunities);
+    const topOpportunity = topOpp
+        ? {
+            metric: topOpp.metric,
+            monthlyRevenue: topOpp.scenario.conservative_monthly_revenue,
+            summary: opportunities[topOpp.metric].recommendation.summary,
+        }
+        : null;
+    // Generate report
+    const reportConfig = {
+        clientName: config.clientName,
+        period: config.period,
+    };
+    const report = generateReport({ curves, opportunities }, reportConfig);
+    return {
+        curves,
+        opportunities,
+        topOpportunity,
+        report,
+        metadata: {
+            totalSessions: metadata.total_sessions,
+            sessionsWithLcp: metadata.sessions_with_lcp,
+            sessionsWithConversions: metadata.sessions_with_conversions,
+            period: metadata.period,
+        },
+    };
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// CLI ENTRY POINT
+// =============================================================================
+/**
+ * CLI entry point.
+ */
+export async function main() {
+    const args = process.argv.slice(2);
+    if (args.includes('--help') || args.includes('-h')) {
+        printHelp();
+        return;
+    }
+    // Check for file import mode
+    const filePath = getArg(args, '--file');
+    const clientName = getArg(args, '--client');
+    if (filePath) {
+        console.log(`Importing data from ${filePath}...\n`);
+        try {
+            const result = analyzeFromFile({
+                filePath,
+                clientName,
+                startDate: getArg(args, '--start'),
+                endDate: getArg(args, '--end'),
+            });
+            console.log(result.report);
+            printSummary(result);
+            return;
+        }
+        catch (error) {
+            console.error('Import failed:', error);
+            process.exit(1);
+        }
+    }
+    // Check for demo mode
+    const demoMode = args.includes('--demo');
+    if (demoMode) {
+        console.log('Running in demo mode with mock data...\n');
+        const result = analyzeWithMockData({
+            sessionCount: 50000,
+            startDate: '2024-01-01',
+            endDate: '2024-01-14',
+            clientName: clientName || 'Demo Company',
+            baseConversionRate: 0.03,
+        });
+        console.log(result.report);
+        printSummary(result);
+        return;
+    }
+    // Check for Datadog credentials
+    const apiKey = process.env.DD_API_KEY || getArg(args, '--api-key');
+    const appKey = process.env.DD_APP_KEY || getArg(args, '--app-key');
+    const startDate = getArg(args, '--start') || getDefaultStartDate();
+    const endDate = getArg(args, '--end') || getDefaultEndDate();
+    if (!apiKey || !appKey) {
+        console.error('Error: Datadog credentials required.');
+        console.error('Set DD_API_KEY and DD_APP_KEY environment variables,');
+        console.error('or use --api-key and --app-key arguments.');
+        console.error('\nOr run with --demo for mock data demo.\n');
+        printHelp();
+        process.exit(1);
+    }
+    console.log(`Analyzing ${startDate} to ${endDate}...\n`);
+    try {
+        const result = await analyzeWithDatadog({
+            apiKey,
+            appKey,
+            startDate,
+            endDate,
+            clientName,
+        });
+        console.log(result.report);
+    }
+    catch (error) {
+        console.error('Analysis failed:', error);
+        process.exit(1);
+    }
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// HELPERS
+// =============================================================================
+function printHelp() {
+    console.log(`
+Empirical Performance Revenue Engine
+
+Usage:
+  npx tsx src/empirical/index.ts [options]
+
+Data Sources (choose one):
+  --file PATH         Import from CSV or JSON file (recommended)
+  --demo              Run with mock data (for testing)
+  --api-key KEY       Datadog API key (or set DD_API_KEY env var)
+
+Options:
+  --start DATE        Start date (YYYY-MM-DD). Default: 14 days ago
+  --end DATE          End date (YYYY-MM-DD). Default: today
+  --client NAME       Client name for report header
+  --help, -h          Show this help message
+
+Examples:
+  # Import from your own CSV/JSON
+  npx tsx src/empirical/index.ts --file sessions.csv --client "Acme Corp"
+
+  # Demo with mock data
+  npx tsx src/empirical/index.ts --demo
+
+  # With Datadog credentials
+  DD_API_KEY=xxx DD_APP_KEY=xxx npx tsx src/empirical/index.ts
+
+CSV/JSON Format:
+  Required columns: session_id, converted (or has_purchase)
+  Optional: lcp_ms, inp_ms, cls, order_value, device, page_type
+`);
+}
+function printSummary(result) {
+    console.log('\n--- Analysis Summary ---\n');
+    console.log(`Total Sessions: ${result.metadata.totalSessions.toLocaleString()}`);
+    console.log(`Sessions with LCP: ${result.metadata.sessionsWithLcp.toLocaleString()}`);
+    console.log(`Conversions: ${result.metadata.sessionsWithConversions.toLocaleString()}`);
+    if (result.topOpportunity) {
+        console.log(`\nTop Opportunity: ${result.topOpportunity.metric.toUpperCase()}`);
+        console.log(`Monthly Revenue: $${result.topOpportunity.monthlyRevenue.toLocaleString()}`);
+    }
+}
+function getArg(args, flag) {
+    const index = args.indexOf(flag);
+    if (index !== -1 && args[index + 1]) {
+        return args[index + 1];
+    }
+    return undefined;
+}
+function getDefaultStartDate() {
+    const date = new Date();
+    date.setDate(date.getDate() - 14);
+    return date.toISOString().split('T')[0];
+}
+function getDefaultEndDate() {
+    return new Date().toISOString().split('T')[0];
+}
+// Re-export functions for library use
+export { queryDatadogSessions, generateMockSessions } from './datadog-session-query.js';
+export { buildConversionCurve, buildAllCurves, buildSegmentedCurves } from './conversion-curve.js';
+export { calculateOpportunity, calculateAllOpportunities, getTopOpportunity } from './opportunity-calculator.js';
+export { generateReport } from './report.js';
+export { importFromFile, importFromCsv, importFromJson } from './data-import.js';
+// Run if executed directly
+if (import.meta.url === `file://${process.argv[1]}`) {
+    main().catch(console.error);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/empirical/index.js.map

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package/dist/empirical/opportunity-calculator.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
+/**
+ * Revenue Opportunity Calculator
+ *
+ * Calculates revenue opportunity from distribution shifts.
+ * Given an empirical conversion curve, we calculate:
+ * "If X sessions move from slow bucket to fast bucket, revenue increases by $Y"
+ *
+ * This is based on MEASURED CVR differences, not assumed coefficients.
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+import type { ConversionCurve } from './conversion-curve.js';
+export interface OpportunityScenario {
+    /** Descriptive name for the scenario */
+    name: string;
+    /** Target metric value in ms (sessions above this are "slow") */
+    target_ms: number;
+    /** Current sessions above target (slow) */
+    slow_sessions: number;
+    /** Current sessions at or below target (fast) */
+    fast_sessions: number;
+    /** Measured CVR for slow sessions */
+    slow_cvr: number;
+    /** Measured CVR for fast sessions */
+    fast_cvr: number;
+    /** Absolute CVR difference (fast - slow) */
+    cvr_delta: number;
+    /** Relative CVR improvement ((fast - slow) / slow) */
+    relative_improvement: number;
+    /** Additional conversions if ALL slow sessions became fast */
+    max_additional_conversions: number;
+    /** Additional monthly revenue (max scenario) */
+    max_monthly_revenue: number;
+    /** Conservative estimate (50% of sessions improved) */
+    conservative_monthly_revenue: number;
+    /** Average order value used */
+    aov: number;
+    /** Statistical confidence */
+    confidence: 'high' | 'medium' | 'low';
+}
+export interface OpportunityReport {
+    /** The metric analyzed */
+    metric: 'lcp' | 'inp' | 'cls';
+    /** Analysis period */
+    period: {
+        days: number;
+        monthly_factor: number;
+    };
+    /** Scenarios at different target thresholds */
+    scenarios: OpportunityScenario[];
+    /** Recommended priority based on opportunity size */
+    recommendation: {
+        priority: 'high' | 'medium' | 'low';
+        target_ms: number;
+        monthly_opportunity: number;
+        summary: string;
+    };
+    /** Raw curve data for transparency */
+    curve_summary: {
+        total_sessions: number;
+        overall_cvr: number;
+        overall_aov: number;
+        cvr_range: number;
+    };
+}
+export interface OpportunityConfig {
+    /** Period in days for the data (for monthly normalization) */
+    periodDays: number;
+    /** Custom target thresholds to evaluate. Default: CWV thresholds */
+    targetThresholds?: number[];
+    /** Minimum sessions to consider scenario valid. Default: 50 */
+    minSessionsForScenario?: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate revenue opportunity from an empirical conversion curve.
+ *
+ * The core calculation:
+ * 1. Count sessions above target threshold (slow)
+ * 2. Get measured CVR for fast vs slow buckets
+ * 3. Calculate: additional_conversions = slow_sessions × (fast_cvr - slow_cvr)
+ * 4. Calculate: revenue = additional_conversions × AOV
+ */
+export declare function calculateOpportunity(curve: ConversionCurve, config: OpportunityConfig): OpportunityReport;
+/**
+ * Calculate opportunity for all CWV metrics.
+ */
+export declare function calculateAllOpportunities(curves: {
+    lcp: ConversionCurve;
+    inp: ConversionCurve;
+    cls: ConversionCurve;
+}, config: OpportunityConfig): {
+    lcp: OpportunityReport;
+    inp: OpportunityReport;
+    cls: OpportunityReport;
+};
+/**
+ * Get the single highest-impact opportunity across all metrics.
+ */
+export declare function getTopOpportunity(opportunities: {
+    lcp: OpportunityReport;
+    inp: OpportunityReport;
+    cls: OpportunityReport;
+}): {
+    metric: 'lcp' | 'inp' | 'cls';
+    scenario: OpportunityScenario;
+} | null;
+//# sourceMappingURL=opportunity-calculator.d.ts.map

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package/dist/empirical/opportunity-calculator.js

@@ -0,0 +1,238 @@
+/**
+ * Revenue Opportunity Calculator
+ *
+ * Calculates revenue opportunity from distribution shifts.
+ * Given an empirical conversion curve, we calculate:
+ * "If X sessions move from slow bucket to fast bucket, revenue increases by $Y"
+ *
+ * This is based on MEASURED CVR differences, not assumed coefficients.
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+// =============================================================================
+// OPPORTUNITY CALCULATOR
+// =============================================================================
+const STANDARD_MONTH_DAYS = 30;
+/**
+ * Calculate revenue opportunity from an empirical conversion curve.
+ *
+ * The core calculation:
+ * 1. Count sessions above target threshold (slow)
+ * 2. Get measured CVR for fast vs slow buckets
+ * 3. Calculate: additional_conversions = slow_sessions × (fast_cvr - slow_cvr)
+ * 4. Calculate: revenue = additional_conversions × AOV
+ */
+export function calculateOpportunity(curve, config) {
+    const { periodDays, minSessionsForScenario = 50, } = config;
+    const monthlyFactor = STANDARD_MONTH_DAYS / periodDays;
+    const targets = config.targetThresholds || getDefaultTargets(curve.metric);
+    const scenarios = [];
+    for (const targetMs of targets) {
+        const scenario = calculateScenarioAtTarget(curve, targetMs, monthlyFactor, minSessionsForScenario);
+        if (scenario) {
+            scenarios.push(scenario);
+        }
+    }
+    // Sort by opportunity size
+    scenarios.sort((a, b) => b.conservative_monthly_revenue - a.conservative_monthly_revenue);
+    // Generate recommendation
+    const recommendation = generateRecommendation(scenarios, curve);
+    return {
+        metric: curve.metric,
+        period: {
+            days: periodDays,
+            monthly_factor: monthlyFactor,
+        },
+        scenarios,
+        recommendation,
+        curve_summary: {
+            total_sessions: curve.summary.total_sessions,
+            overall_cvr: curve.summary.overall_cvr,
+            overall_aov: curve.summary.overall_aov,
+            cvr_range: curve.summary.cvr_range,
+        },
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate opportunity for all CWV metrics.
+ */
+export function calculateAllOpportunities(curves, config) {
+    return {
+        lcp: calculateOpportunity(curves.lcp, config),
+        inp: calculateOpportunity(curves.inp, config),
+        cls: calculateOpportunity(curves.cls, config),
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Get the single highest-impact opportunity across all metrics.
+ */
+export function getTopOpportunity(opportunities) {
+    const allScenarios = [];
+    for (const [metric, report] of Object.entries(opportunities)) {
+        for (const scenario of report.scenarios) {
+            allScenarios.push({
+                metric: metric,
+                scenario,
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    if (allScenarios.length === 0)
+        return null;
+    // Sort by conservative revenue opportunity
+    allScenarios.sort((a, b) => b.scenario.conservative_monthly_revenue - a.scenario.conservative_monthly_revenue);
+    return allScenarios[0];
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// SCENARIO CALCULATION
+// =============================================================================
+function calculateScenarioAtTarget(curve, targetMs, monthlyFactor, minSessions) {
+    // Partition buckets into fast (at or below target) and slow (above target)
+    const fastBuckets = [];
+    const slowBuckets = [];
+    for (const bucket of curve.buckets) {
+        if (bucket.upper_ms <= targetMs) {
+            fastBuckets.push(bucket);
+        }
+        else if (bucket.lower_ms >= targetMs) {
+            slowBuckets.push(bucket);
+        }
+        else {
+            // Bucket spans the threshold - split proportionally
+            const belowPortion = (targetMs - bucket.lower_ms) / (bucket.upper_ms - bucket.lower_ms);
+            const abovePortion = 1 - belowPortion;
+            if (belowPortion > 0) {
+                fastBuckets.push({
+                    ...bucket,
+                    sessions: Math.round(bucket.sessions * belowPortion),
+                    conversions: Math.round(bucket.conversions * belowPortion),
+                    revenue: bucket.revenue * belowPortion,
+                });
+            }
+            if (abovePortion > 0) {
+                slowBuckets.push({
+                    ...bucket,
+                    sessions: Math.round(bucket.sessions * abovePortion),
+                    conversions: Math.round(bucket.conversions * abovePortion),
+                    revenue: bucket.revenue * abovePortion,
+                });
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    const fastSessions = fastBuckets.reduce((sum, b) => sum + b.sessions, 0);
+    const slowSessions = slowBuckets.reduce((sum, b) => sum + b.sessions, 0);
+    // Need minimum sessions in both groups for valid scenario
+    if (fastSessions < minSessions || slowSessions < minSessions) {
+        return null;
+    }
+    const fastConversions = fastBuckets.reduce((sum, b) => sum + b.conversions, 0);
+    const slowConversions = slowBuckets.reduce((sum, b) => sum + b.conversions, 0);
+    const fastCvr = fastConversions / fastSessions;
+    const slowCvr = slowConversions / slowSessions;
+    const cvrDelta = fastCvr - slowCvr;
+    // If slow sessions already convert better, no opportunity
+    if (cvrDelta <= 0) {
+        return null;
+    }
+    const totalRevenue = fastBuckets.reduce((sum, b) => sum + b.revenue, 0) +
+        slowBuckets.reduce((sum, b) => sum + b.revenue, 0);
+    const totalConversions = fastConversions + slowConversions;
+    const aov = totalConversions > 0 ? totalRevenue / totalConversions : 0;
+    // Calculate opportunity
+    // If all slow sessions achieved fast CVR, how many additional conversions?
+    const maxAdditionalConversions = slowSessions * cvrDelta;
+    const maxRevenue = maxAdditionalConversions * aov * monthlyFactor;
+    // Conservative: assume only 50% of sessions can realistically be improved
+    const conservativeRevenue = maxRevenue * 0.5;
+    // Determine confidence
+    let confidence = 'low';
+    const minBucketSessions = Math.min(...fastBuckets.map((b) => b.sessions), ...slowBuckets.map((b) => b.sessions));
+    if (minBucketSessions >= 100) {
+        confidence = 'high';
+    }
+    else if (minBucketSessions >= 30) {
+        confidence = 'medium';
+    }
+    const metricLabel = curve.metric.toUpperCase();
+    const targetLabel = formatTargetLabel(targetMs, curve.metric);
+    return {
+        name: `Improve ${metricLabel} to ${targetLabel}`,
+        target_ms: targetMs,
+        slow_sessions: slowSessions,
+        fast_sessions: fastSessions,
+        slow_cvr: slowCvr,
+        fast_cvr: fastCvr,
+        cvr_delta: cvrDelta,
+        relative_improvement: slowCvr > 0 ? cvrDelta / slowCvr : 0,
+        max_additional_conversions: Math.round(maxAdditionalConversions * monthlyFactor),
+        max_monthly_revenue: Math.round(maxRevenue),
+        conservative_monthly_revenue: Math.round(conservativeRevenue),
+        aov,
+        confidence,
+    };
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// RECOMMENDATION GENERATION
+// =============================================================================
+function generateRecommendation(scenarios, curve) {
+    if (scenarios.length === 0) {
+        return {
+            priority: 'low',
+            target_ms: curve.thresholds.good,
+            monthly_opportunity: 0,
+            summary: `No significant ${curve.metric.toUpperCase()} opportunity detected. Current performance distribution shows minimal CVR variation.`,
+        };
+    }
+    // Find the best scenario (highest conservative revenue with good confidence)
+    const viableScenarios = scenarios.filter((s) => s.confidence !== 'low');
+    const bestScenario = viableScenarios[0] || scenarios[0];
+    // Determine priority
+    let priority = 'low';
+    if (bestScenario.conservative_monthly_revenue >= 10000) {
+        priority = 'high';
+    }
+    else if (bestScenario.conservative_monthly_revenue >= 2500) {
+        priority = 'medium';
+    }
+    const metricLabel = curve.metric.toUpperCase();
+    const targetLabel = formatTargetLabel(bestScenario.target_ms, curve.metric);
+    const slowPct = ((bestScenario.slow_sessions / curve.summary.total_sessions) * 100).toFixed(0);
+    const cvrLiftPct = (bestScenario.relative_improvement * 100).toFixed(1);
+    return {
+        priority,
+        target_ms: bestScenario.target_ms,
+        monthly_opportunity: bestScenario.conservative_monthly_revenue,
+        summary: `${slowPct}% of sessions have ${metricLabel} > ${targetLabel}. These sessions convert ${cvrLiftPct}% worse than faster sessions. Improving them could generate ~$${formatCurrency(bestScenario.conservative_monthly_revenue)}/month.`,
+    };
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// HELPERS
+// =============================================================================
+function getDefaultTargets(metric) {
+    switch (metric) {
+        case 'lcp':
+            return [2500, 3000, 4000]; // Good threshold, mid, poor threshold
+        case 'inp':
+            return [200, 300, 500];
+        case 'cls':
+            return [100, 150, 250]; // Scaled by 1000
+    }
+}
+function formatTargetLabel(targetMs, metric) {
+    if (metric === 'cls') {
+        return (targetMs / 1000).toFixed(2);
+    }
+    if (targetMs >= 1000) {
+        return `${(targetMs / 1000).toFixed(1)}s`;
+    }
+    return `${targetMs}ms`;
+}
+function formatCurrency(value) {
+    if (value >= 1_000_000) {
+        return `${(value / 1_000_000).toFixed(1)}M`;
+    }
+    if (value >= 1_000) {
+        return `${(value / 1_000).toFixed(0)}K`;
+    }
+    return value.toFixed(0);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=opportunity-calculator.js.map

package/dist/empirical/opportunity-calculator.js.map

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