conatus 0.1.0

package/dist/portfolio-manager.d.ts.map

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package/dist/portfolio-manager.js

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+import { StrategySchema, PortfolioSchema } from "./types/strategy.js";
+import { PortfolioConfigSchema } from "./types/portfolio.js";
+import { calculateInitialAllocations, countConsecutiveLowestRebalances, redistributeAllocation, adjustAllocations, handleWaitStrategyExpiry as _handleWaitStrategyExpiry, selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals as _selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals, getCurrentGapForDimension as _getCurrentGapForDimension, calculateGapDeltaForStrategy as _calculateGapDeltaForStrategy, } from "./portfolio-rebalance.js";
+/**
+ * PortfolioManager provides portfolio-level orchestration on top of StrategyManager.
+ *
+ * Responsibilities:
+ * - Deterministic task-strategy selection (which strategy should generate the next task)
+ * - Effectiveness measurement per strategy (gap delta / sessions consumed)
+ * - Rebalance triggering and execution (allocation adjustment, termination)
+ * - Wait-strategy lifecycle management
+ *
+ * PortfolioManager does NOT replace StrategyManager — it coordinates across strategies.
+ */
+export class PortfolioManager {
+    strategyManager;
+    stateManager;
+    config;
+    /** goalId → timestamp of last rebalance */
+    lastRebalanceTime = new Map();
+    /** goalId → list of past rebalance results */
+    rebalanceHistory = new Map();
+    /** strategyId → timestamp of last task completion */
+    lastTaskCompletionByStrategy = new Map();
+    constructor(strategyManager, stateManager, config) {
+        this.strategyManager = strategyManager;
+        this.stateManager = stateManager;
+        this.config = PortfolioConfigSchema.parse(config ?? {});
+    }
+    // ─── Public Methods ───
+    /**
+     * Select the next strategy that should generate a task for the given goal.
+     *
+     * Uses a deterministic "wait ratio" approach: for each active strategy,
+     * compute (time since last task completion) / allocation. The strategy
+     * with the highest ratio is the most "starved" and gets selected next.
+     *
+     * WaitStrategy instances are skipped (they do not generate tasks).
+     * Returns null if no eligible active strategies exist.
+     */
+    async selectNextStrategyForTask(goalId) {
+        const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
+        if (!portfolio)
+            return null;
+        const activeStrategies = portfolio.strategies.filter((s) => s.state === "active" || s.state === "evaluating");
+        const eligible = activeStrategies.filter((s) => !this.isWaitStrategy(s));
+        if (eligible.length === 0)
+            return null;
+        const now = Date.now();
+        const portfolioCreatedAt = new Date(portfolio.last_rebalanced_at).getTime();
+        let bestStrategy = null;
+        let bestRatio = -Infinity;
+        for (const strategy of eligible) {
+            const lastCompletion = this.lastTaskCompletionByStrategy.get(strategy.id) ??
+                (strategy.started_at
+                    ? new Date(strategy.started_at).getTime()
+                    : portfolioCreatedAt);
+            const elapsed = now - lastCompletion;
+            const allocation = strategy.allocation > 0 ? strategy.allocation : 0.01;
+            const ratio = elapsed / allocation;
+            if (ratio > bestRatio) {
+                bestRatio = ratio;
+                bestStrategy = strategy;
+            }
+        }
+        if (!bestStrategy)
+            return null;
+        return {
+            strategy_id: bestStrategy.id,
+            reason: `Highest wait ratio (${bestRatio.toFixed(0)}ms/alloc) — most starved for task execution`,
+            wait_ratio: bestRatio,
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Calculate effectiveness records for all active strategies of a goal.
+     *
+     * effectiveness_score = gap_delta_attributed / sessions_consumed
+     *
+     * Uses dimension-target matching (method 2): sum gap changes in each
+     * strategy's target_dimensions and attribute them to that strategy.
+     *
+     * Requires a minimum number of task completions (default 3) before
+     * producing a non-null score.
+     */
+    async calculateEffectiveness(goalId) {
+        const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
+        if (!portfolio)
+            return [];
+        const activeStrategies = portfolio.strategies.filter((s) => s.state === "active" || s.state === "evaluating");
+        const now = new Date().toISOString();
+        const records = [];
+        for (const strategy of activeStrategies) {
+            const sessionsConsumed = strategy.tasks_generated.length;
+            const gapDelta = await this.calculateGapDeltaForStrategy(strategy, goalId);
+            let score = null;
+            if (sessionsConsumed >= this.config.effectiveness_min_tasks) {
+                score =
+                    sessionsConsumed > 0 ? gapDelta / sessionsConsumed : 0;
+            }
+            records.push({
+                strategy_id: strategy.id,
+                gap_delta_attributed: gapDelta,
+                sessions_consumed: sessionsConsumed,
+                effectiveness_score: score,
+                last_calculated_at: now,
+            });
+        }
+        return records;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Check whether a rebalance is needed for the given goal.
+     *
+     * Two trigger types:
+     * - periodic: rebalance_interval has elapsed since last rebalance
+     * - score_change: any effectiveness_score changed 50%+ since last rebalance
+     *
+     * Returns the trigger or null.
+     */
+    async shouldRebalance(goalId) {
+        const now = Date.now();
+        const lastRebalance = this.lastRebalanceTime.get(goalId) ?? 0;
+        const intervalMs = this.config.rebalance_interval_hours * 60 * 60 * 1000;
+        if (lastRebalance > 0 && now - lastRebalance >= intervalMs) {
+            return {
+                type: "periodic",
+                strategy_id: null,
+                details: `Rebalance interval (${this.config.rebalance_interval_hours}h) has elapsed`,
+            };
+        }
+        const currentRecords = await this.calculateEffectiveness(goalId);
+        const history = this.rebalanceHistory.get(goalId) ?? [];
+        if (history.length === 0)
+            return null;
+        for (const record of currentRecords) {
+            if (record.effectiveness_score === null)
+                continue;
+            const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
+            if (!portfolio)
+                continue;
+            const strategy = portfolio.strategies.find((s) => s.id === record.strategy_id);
+            if (!strategy || strategy.effectiveness_score === null)
+                continue;
+            const previousScore = strategy.effectiveness_score;
+            if (previousScore === 0)
+                continue;
+            const changeRatio = Math.abs((record.effectiveness_score - previousScore) / previousScore);
+            if (changeRatio >= 0.5) {
+                return {
+                    type: "score_change",
+                    strategy_id: record.strategy_id,
+                    details: `Effectiveness score changed by ${(changeRatio * 100).toFixed(0)}% (${previousScore.toFixed(3)} → ${record.effectiveness_score.toFixed(3)})`,
+                };
+            }
+        }
+        return null;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Execute a rebalance for the given goal based on the trigger.
+     *
+     * Logic (design doc sec 6.3):
+     * - All scores null: no change
+     * - Score ratio < 2.0: no change
+     * - Score ratio >= 2.0: increase high-performer allocation, decrease low-performer
+     *   (respect min 0.1)
+     * - Check termination conditions and terminate if met
+     * - If all terminated: set new_generation_needed = true
+     * - Redistribute terminated strategy allocation proportionally
+     */
+    async rebalance(goalId, trigger) {
+        const now = new Date().toISOString();
+        const records = await this.calculateEffectiveness(goalId);
+        const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
+        const result = {
+            triggered_by: trigger.type,
+            timestamp: now,
+            adjustments: [],
+            terminated_strategies: [],
+            new_generation_needed: false,
+        };
+        if (!portfolio) {
+            await this.recordRebalance(goalId, result);
+            return result;
+        }
+        const activeStrategies = portfolio.strategies.filter((s) => s.state === "active" || s.state === "evaluating");
+        for (const strategy of activeStrategies) {
+            if (this.checkTermination(strategy, records)) {
+                await this.strategyManager.updateState(strategy.id, "terminated");
+                result.terminated_strategies.push(strategy.id);
+            }
+        }
+        const remainingStrategies = activeStrategies.filter((s) => !result.terminated_strategies.includes(s.id));
+        if (remainingStrategies.length === 0 &&
+            result.terminated_strategies.length > 0) {
+            result.new_generation_needed = true;
+            await this.recordRebalance(goalId, result);
+            return result;
+        }
+        if (result.terminated_strategies.length > 0 && remainingStrategies.length > 0) {
+            const freedAllocation = result.terminated_strategies.reduce((sum, sid) => {
+                const s = activeStrategies.find((st) => st.id === sid);
+                return sum + (s?.allocation ?? 0);
+            }, 0);
+            redistributeAllocation(goalId, remainingStrategies, records, freedAllocation, this.config, result, (gId, sId, alloc) => this.updateStrategyAllocation(gId, sId, alloc));
+        }
+        const scoredRecords = records.filter((r) => r.effectiveness_score !== null &&
+            remainingStrategies.some((s) => s.id === r.strategy_id));
+        if (scoredRecords.length >= 2) {
+            const scores = scoredRecords.map((r) => r.effectiveness_score);
+            const maxScore = Math.max(...scores);
+            const minScore = Math.min(...scores);
+            if (minScore > 0 && maxScore / minScore >= this.config.score_ratio_threshold) {
+                adjustAllocations(goalId, remainingStrategies, scoredRecords, this.config, result, (gId, sId, alloc) => this.updateStrategyAllocation(gId, sId, alloc));
+            }
+        }
+        this.recordRebalance(goalId, result);
+        return result;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Check whether a strategy should be terminated.
+     *
+     * Three conditions (design doc sec 6.4):
+     * 1. Lowest effectiveness score for 3 consecutive rebalances at min allocation
+     * 2. consecutive_stall_count >= 3
+     * 3. Resource consumption > 2x estimate
+     */
+    checkTermination(strategy, records) {
+        if (strategy.consecutive_stall_count >= this.config.termination_stall_count) {
+            return true;
+        }
+        const sessionsConsumed = strategy.tasks_generated.length;
+        const estimatedSessions = strategy.resource_estimate.sessions;
+        if (estimatedSessions > 0 &&
+            sessionsConsumed >
+                estimatedSessions * this.config.termination_resource_multiplier) {
+            return true;
+        }
+        if (strategy.allocation <= this.config.min_allocation) {
+            const record = records.find((r) => r.strategy_id === strategy.id);
+            if (record?.effectiveness_score !== null && record !== undefined) {
+                const otherScores = records
+                    .filter((r) => r.strategy_id !== strategy.id &&
+                    r.effectiveness_score !== null)
+                    .map((r) => r.effectiveness_score);
+                if (otherScores.length > 0) {
+                    const isLowest = otherScores.every((s) => s >= record.effectiveness_score);
+                    if (isLowest) {
+                        const history = this.rebalanceHistory.get(strategy.goal_id) ?? [];
+                        const recentCount = countConsecutiveLowestRebalances(strategy.id, history, this.config.min_allocation);
+                        if (recentCount >= this.config.termination_min_rebalances) {
+                            return true;
+                        }
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        return false;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Activate multiple strategies with initial allocation.
+     *
+     * Single strategy: allocation = 1.0
+     * Multiple: equal split as default, respecting min 0.1 and max 0.7, sum = 1.0
+     */
+    activateStrategies(goalId, strategyIds) {
+        if (strategyIds.length === 0)
+            return;
+        const allocations = calculateInitialAllocations(strategyIds.length, this.config);
+        for (let i = 0; i < strategyIds.length; i++) {
+            const strategyId = strategyIds[i];
+            this.strategyManager.updateState(strategyId, "active");
+            this.updateStrategyAllocation(goalId, strategyId, allocations[i]);
+        }
+    }
+    /**
+     * Check if a strategy is a WaitStrategy (has wait-specific fields).
+     */
+    isWaitStrategy(strategy) {
+        const waitFields = strategy;
+        return (typeof waitFields["wait_reason"] === "string" &&
+            typeof waitFields["wait_until"] === "string" &&
+            typeof waitFields["measurement_plan"] === "string");
+    }
+    /**
+     * Handle expiry of a WaitStrategy.
+     *
+     * When wait_until has passed:
+     * - Gap improved: return null (let the wait strategy continue its evaluation)
+     * - Gap unchanged: activate fallback strategy if one exists
+     * - Gap worsened: return rebalance trigger
+     */
+    async handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId, strategyId) {
+        const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
+        if (!portfolio)
+            return null;
+        const strategy = portfolio.strategies.find((s) => s.id === strategyId);
+        if (!strategy)
+            return null;
+        return _handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId, strategyId, strategy, (s) => this.isWaitStrategy(s), (gId, dim) => this.getCurrentGapForDimension(gId, dim), (sId, state) => this.strategyManager.updateState(sId, state), async (gId) => (await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(gId))?.strategies ?? []);
+    }
+    /**
+     * Record a task completion timestamp for a strategy.
+     * Called externally when a task finishes execution.
+     */
+    recordTaskCompletion(strategyId) {
+        this.lastTaskCompletionByStrategy.set(strategyId, Date.now());
+    }
+    /**
+     * Get the rebalance history for a goal.
+     */
+    getRebalanceHistory(goalId) {
+        return this.rebalanceHistory.get(goalId) ?? [];
+    }
+    /**
+     * Select the next strategy to execute across multiple goals.
+     *
+     * Uses CrossGoalPortfolio's allocation to determine which goal gets the
+     * next turn (most underserved relative to its allocation), then selects
+     * a strategy within that goal using selectNextStrategyForTask().
+     *
+     * Returns null if no strategies are available across all goals.
+     */
+    async selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals(goalIds, goalAllocations) {
+        return _selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals(goalIds, goalAllocations, this.goalTaskCounts, (goalId) => this.selectNextStrategyForTask(goalId));
+    }
+    /**
+     * Track how many tasks have been dispatched per goal.
+     * Updated via recordGoalTaskDispatched().
+     */
+    goalTaskCounts = new Map();
+    /**
+     * Record that a task was dispatched for the given goal.
+     * Used by selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals() to track saturation.
+     */
+    recordGoalTaskDispatched(goalId) {
+        this.goalTaskCounts.set(goalId, (this.goalTaskCounts.get(goalId) ?? 0) + 1);
+    }
+    // ─── Private Helpers ───
+    async calculateGapDeltaForStrategy(strategy, goalId) {
+        return _calculateGapDeltaForStrategy(strategy, goalId, async (path) => await this.stateManager.readRaw(path));
+    }
+    async getCurrentGapForDimension(goalId, dimension) {
+        return _getCurrentGapForDimension(goalId, dimension, async (path) => await this.stateManager.readRaw(path));
+    }
+    /**
+     * Update a single strategy's allocation in the portfolio.
+     * Reads portfolio, modifies the strategy, and writes back.
+     */
+    async updateStrategyAllocation(goalId, strategyId, allocation) {
+        const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
+        if (!portfolio)
+            return;
+        const updated = {
+            ...portfolio,
+            strategies: portfolio.strategies.map((s) => s.id === strategyId
+                ? StrategySchema.parse({ ...s, allocation })
+                : s),
+        };
+        await this.stateManager.writeRaw(`strategies/${goalId}/portfolio.json`, PortfolioSchema.parse(updated));
+    }
+    /**
+     * Record a rebalance result and update tracking state.
+     */
+    async recordRebalance(goalId, result) {
+        this.lastRebalanceTime.set(goalId, Date.now());
+        const history = this.rebalanceHistory.get(goalId) ?? [];
+        history.push(result);
+        this.rebalanceHistory.set(goalId, history);
+        await this.stateManager.writeRaw(`strategies/${goalId}/rebalance-history.json`, history);
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio-manager.js.map

package/dist/portfolio-manager.js.map

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package/dist/portfolio-rebalance.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+/**
+ * portfolio-rebalance.ts
+ *
+ * Pure/stateless helpers for PortfolioManager rebalancing logic.
+ * Functions here take configuration and data as explicit parameters
+ * and return results without side effects (except via the provided
+ * callbacks).
+ */
+import type { PortfolioConfig, EffectivenessRecord, RebalanceResult, RebalanceTrigger, TaskSelectionResult } from "./types/portfolio.js";
+import type { Strategy } from "./types/strategy.js";
+/**
+ * Get the current gap value for a specific dimension of a goal.
+ * Reads from gap data provided by the caller (StateManager.readRaw).
+ */
+export declare function getCurrentGapForDimension(goalId: string, dimension: string, readRaw: (path: string) => unknown | Promise<unknown>): Promise<number | null>;
+/**
+ * Calculate gap delta attributed to a strategy using dimension-target matching.
+ * Sums gap improvements across the strategy's target_dimensions.
+ */
+export declare function calculateGapDeltaForStrategy(strategy: Strategy, goalId: string, readRaw: (path: string) => unknown | Promise<unknown>): Promise<number>;
+/**
+ * Calculate initial equal-split allocations for N strategies.
+ * Single strategy: [1.0].
+ * Multiple: equal split clamped to [min_allocation, max_allocation], sum = 1.0.
+ */
+export declare function calculateInitialAllocations(count: number, config: Pick<PortfolioConfig, "min_allocation" | "max_allocation">): number[];
+/**
+ * Count how many consecutive recent rebalances a strategy has been the lowest scorer
+ * (i.e., was adjusted down to min_allocation).
+ */
+export declare function countConsecutiveLowestRebalances(strategyId: string, history: RebalanceResult[], minAllocation: number): number;
+/**
+ * Redistribute freed allocation proportionally among remaining strategies
+ * based on effectiveness scores.
+ *
+ * Calls updateAllocation(goalId, strategyId, newAllocation) for each change.
+ */
+export declare function redistributeAllocation(goalId: string, remaining: Strategy[], records: EffectivenessRecord[], freedAllocation: number, config: Pick<PortfolioConfig, "max_allocation">, result: RebalanceResult, updateAllocation: (goalId: string, strategyId: string, allocation: number) => void): void;
+/**
+ * Adjust allocations based on effectiveness scores.
+ * Increases high-performers, decreases low-performers.
+ *
+ * Calls updateAllocation(goalId, strategyId, newAllocation) for each change.
+ */
+export declare function adjustAllocations(goalId: string, strategies: Strategy[], scoredRecords: EffectivenessRecord[], config: Pick<PortfolioConfig, "min_allocation" | "max_allocation">, result: RebalanceResult, updateAllocation: (goalId: string, strategyId: string, allocation: number) => void): void;
+/**
+ * Handle expiry of a WaitStrategy.
+ *
+ * When wait_until has passed:
+ * - Gap improved: return null
+ * - Gap unchanged: activate fallback strategy if one exists
+ * - Gap worsened: return rebalance trigger
+ *
+ * @param isWaitStrategy - predicate to detect WaitStrategy instances
+ * @param getGap - get current gap for a dimension of a goal
+ * @param updateState - transition a strategy to a new state
+ * @param getPortfolioStrategies - get all strategies for a goal
+ */
+export declare function handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId: string, strategyId: string, strategy: Strategy, isWaitStrategy: (s: Strategy) => boolean, getGap: (goalId: string, dimension: string) => number | null | Promise<number | null>, updateState: (strategyId: string, state: string) => void | Promise<void>, getPortfolioStrategies: (goalId: string) => Strategy[] | Promise<Strategy[]>): Promise<RebalanceTrigger | null>;
+/**
+ * Select the next strategy across multiple goals.
+ *
+ * Sorts goals by "saturation ratio" (tasks dispatched / allocation) — the most
+ * underserved goal (lowest saturation) gets the next task. Within that goal,
+ * selectStrategyForTask() picks the best strategy.
+ *
+ * @param goalTaskCounts - map of goalId → total tasks dispatched
+ * @param selectStrategyForTask - select best strategy within one goal
+ */
+export declare function selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals(goalIds: string[], goalAllocations: Map<string, number>, goalTaskCounts: Map<string, number>, selectStrategyForTask: (goalId: string) => TaskSelectionResult | null | Promise<TaskSelectionResult | null>): Promise<{
+    goal_id: string;
+    strategy_id: string | null;
+    selection_reason: string;
+} | null>;
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio-rebalance.d.ts.map

package/dist/portfolio-rebalance.d.ts.map

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