conatus 0.1.0

package/dist/strategy/portfolio-allocation.js

@@ -0,0 +1,215 @@
+// ─── Helpers ───
+function clamp(value, min, max) {
+    return Math.min(Math.max(value, min), max);
+}
+// ─── Resource Allocation ───
+/**
+ * Allocate resource shares across goals based on their priority scores.
+ *
+ * Rules:
+ *   1. If goals > max_concurrent_goals, lowest priority goals get allocation=0
+ *      and are labelled "waiting".
+ *   2. Active goals (up to max_concurrent_goals) share 1.0 proportionally to
+ *      computed_priority, with a floor of min_goal_share.
+ *   3. Sum of active allocations = 1.0.
+ *
+ * @param priorities — output from calculateGoalPriorities
+ * @param config — allocation configuration (max_concurrent_goals, min_goal_share)
+ * @param strategy   — optional AllocationStrategy (default: 'priority')
+ * @param momentumMap — goalId → MomentumInfo, required when strategy.type === 'momentum'
+ * @param depSchedule — DependencySchedule, required when strategy.type === 'dependency_aware'
+ * @returns CrossGoalAllocation[] in the same order as priorities
+ */
+export function allocateResources(priorities, config, strategy, momentumMap, depSchedule) {
+    if (priorities.length === 0)
+        return [];
+    const { max_concurrent_goals, min_goal_share } = config;
+    // Split into active (top N) and waiting (rest), already sorted desc
+    const activeCount = Math.min(priorities.length, max_concurrent_goals);
+    const activePriorities = priorities.slice(0, activeCount);
+    const waitingPriorities = priorities.slice(activeCount);
+    // Build allocations for waiting goals (zero share)
+    const waitingAllocations = waitingPriorities.map((p) => ({
+        goal_id: p.goal_id,
+        priority: p.computed_priority,
+        resource_share: 0,
+        adjustment_reason: `waiting: exceeds max_concurrent_goals (${max_concurrent_goals})`,
+    }));
+    if (activePriorities.length === 0)
+        return waitingAllocations;
+    // Single goal gets everything
+    if (activePriorities.length === 1) {
+        return [
+            {
+                goal_id: activePriorities[0]?.goal_id ?? "",
+                priority: activePriorities[0]?.computed_priority ?? 0,
+                resource_share: 1.0,
+                adjustment_reason: "sole active goal",
+            },
+            ...waitingAllocations,
+        ];
+    }
+    const n = activePriorities.length;
+    // --- Strategy-specific weight computation ---
+    const strategyType = strategy?.type ?? "priority";
+    let weights;
+    let strategyReason;
+    if (strategyType === "equal") {
+        weights = activePriorities.map(() => 1);
+        strategyReason = "equal allocation";
+    }
+    else if (strategyType === "momentum" && momentumMap && momentumMap.size > 0) {
+        const momentumWeight = strategy?.momentumWeight ?? 0.5;
+        // Blend priority and momentum velocity
+        weights = activePriorities.map((p) => {
+            const mom = momentumMap.get(p.goal_id);
+            const vel = mom ? Math.max(mom.velocity, 0) : 0;
+            return (1 - momentumWeight) * p.computed_priority + momentumWeight * vel;
+        });
+        strategyReason = "momentum-weighted";
+    }
+    else if (strategyType === "dependency_aware" && depSchedule) {
+        // Goals on critical path and unblocked goals get a boost
+        const criticalSet = new Set(depSchedule.criticalPath);
+        // Determine which goals are currently unblocked (in phase 0 or phase whose blockedBy are empty)
+        const unblockedGoals = new Set();
+        for (const phase of depSchedule.phases) {
+            if (phase.blockedBy.length === 0) {
+                for (const id of phase.goalIds)
+                    unblockedGoals.add(id);
+            }
+        }
+        weights = activePriorities.map((p) => {
+            let w = p.computed_priority;
+            if (criticalSet.has(p.goal_id))
+                w *= 1.5;
+            if (unblockedGoals.has(p.goal_id))
+                w *= 1.2;
+            return w;
+        });
+        strategyReason = "dependency_aware";
+    }
+    else {
+        // Default: priority-proportional
+        weights = activePriorities.map((p) => p.computed_priority);
+        strategyReason = "priority";
+    }
+    // Proportional allocation with guaranteed min_goal_share floor.
+    //
+    // Algorithm:
+    //   1. Reserve min_goal_share for every active goal.
+    //   2. Distribute the remaining budget (1 - n * min_goal_share) proportionally
+    //      by computed weight.
+    //   3. This guarantees every active goal has at least min_goal_share.
+    //
+    // Edge case: if n * min_goal_share >= 1 (too many goals for the floor to
+    // allow proportional distribution), fall back to equal distribution.
+    const reservedTotal = n * min_goal_share;
+    let finalShares;
+    if (reservedTotal >= 1) {
+        // No room for proportional top-up — give everyone an equal share
+        finalShares = activePriorities.map(() => 1 / n);
+    }
+    else {
+        const remainingBudget = 1 - reservedTotal;
+        const totalWeight = weights.reduce((sum, w) => sum + w, 0);
+        if (totalWeight === 0) {
+            // All zero — split remaining budget equally
+            finalShares = activePriorities.map(() => min_goal_share + remainingBudget / n);
+        }
+        else {
+            finalShares = weights.map((w) => min_goal_share + remainingBudget * (w / totalWeight));
+        }
+    }
+    // Track which goals received the floor for reason strings
+    const totalWeightForReason = weights.reduce((sum, w) => sum + w, 0);
+    const rawShares = totalWeightForReason === 0
+        ? activePriorities.map(() => 1 / n)
+        : weights.map((w) => w / totalWeightForReason);
+    const activeAllocations = activePriorities.map((p, i) => {
+        const share = finalShares[i];
+        const raw = rawShares[i];
+        let reason;
+        if (raw < min_goal_share) {
+            reason = `min_goal_share floor applied (raw=${raw.toFixed(3)}, strategy=${strategyReason})`;
+        }
+        else {
+            reason = `${strategyReason}: weight=${(weights[i] ?? 0).toFixed(3)}`;
+        }
+        return {
+            goal_id: p.goal_id,
+            priority: p.computed_priority,
+            resource_share: share,
+            adjustment_reason: reason,
+        };
+    });
+    return [...activeAllocations, ...waitingAllocations];
+}
+// ─── Stall Rebalancing ───
+/**
+ * Detect stalled goals and redistribute their resources to progressing goals.
+ *
+ * A goal is considered stalled if its MomentumInfo.trend === 'stalled'.
+ * Resources from stalled goals are redistributed proportionally to
+ * non-stalled goals based on their velocity.
+ *
+ * @param currentAllocations — current CrossGoalAllocation array
+ * @param momentumMap — goalId → MomentumInfo
+ * @returns array of RebalanceActions taken (empty if no stalled goals)
+ */
+export function rebalanceOnStall(currentAllocations, momentumMap) {
+    const actions = [];
+    if (currentAllocations.length === 0)
+        return actions;
+    const stalled = [];
+    const progressing = [];
+    for (const alloc of currentAllocations) {
+        const mom = momentumMap.get(alloc.goal_id);
+        if (!mom)
+            continue; // unknown momentum — keep current allocation
+        if (mom.trend === "stalled") {
+            stalled.push(alloc);
+        }
+        else {
+            progressing.push(alloc);
+        }
+    }
+    if (stalled.length === 0)
+        return actions;
+    // Nothing to redistribute to
+    if (progressing.length === 0)
+        return actions;
+    // Calculate total share to redistribute
+    const redistributeTotal = stalled.reduce((s, a) => s + a.resource_share, 0);
+    // Compute target shares for progressing goals, weighted by velocity
+    const totalVelocity = progressing.reduce((s, a) => {
+        const mom = momentumMap.get(a.goal_id);
+        return s + Math.max(mom?.velocity ?? 0, 0);
+    }, 0);
+    for (const alloc of stalled) {
+        actions.push({
+            goalId: alloc.goal_id,
+            action: "reduce",
+            reason: "stalled: momentum velocity ≈ 0",
+            previousShare: alloc.resource_share,
+            newShare: 0,
+        });
+    }
+    for (const alloc of progressing) {
+        const mom = momentumMap.get(alloc.goal_id);
+        const vel = Math.max(mom?.velocity ?? 0, 0);
+        const bonus = totalVelocity > 0
+            ? redistributeTotal * (vel / totalVelocity)
+            : redistributeTotal / progressing.length;
+        const newShare = clamp(alloc.resource_share + bonus, 0, 1);
+        actions.push({
+            goalId: alloc.goal_id,
+            action: "increase",
+            reason: `received share from stalled goals (velocity=${vel.toFixed(4)})`,
+            previousShare: alloc.resource_share,
+            newShare,
+        });
+    }
+    return actions;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio-allocation.js.map

package/dist/strategy/portfolio-allocation.js.map

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package/dist/strategy/portfolio-momentum.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+import type { MomentumInfo } from "../types/cross-portfolio.js";
+/**
+ * Calculate momentum for a single goal based on recent state snapshots.
+ *
+ * @param goalId — goal to evaluate
+ * @param snapshots — array of recent progress values (0-1), ordered oldest → newest
+ *                    (typically last 5 iterations). Minimum 2 values required.
+ * @returns MomentumInfo
+ */
+export declare function calculateMomentum(goalId: string, snapshots: number[]): MomentumInfo;
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio-momentum.d.ts.map

package/dist/strategy/portfolio-momentum.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/strategy/portfolio-momentum.js

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+// ─── Momentum ───
+/**
+ * Calculate momentum for a single goal based on recent state snapshots.
+ *
+ * @param goalId — goal to evaluate
+ * @param snapshots — array of recent progress values (0-1), ordered oldest → newest
+ *                    (typically last 5 iterations). Minimum 2 values required.
+ * @returns MomentumInfo
+ */
+export function calculateMomentum(goalId, snapshots) {
+    if (snapshots.length === 0) {
+        return { goalId, recentProgress: 0, velocity: 0, trend: "stalled" };
+    }
+    if (snapshots.length === 1) {
+        return { goalId, recentProgress: 0, velocity: 0, trend: "stalled" };
+    }
+    // recentProgress = total delta from first to last snapshot
+    const recentProgress = snapshots[snapshots.length - 1] - snapshots[0];
+    // velocity = smoothed average per-step delta (EMA-style: weight recent steps more)
+    const deltas = [];
+    for (let i = 1; i < snapshots.length; i++) {
+        deltas.push(snapshots[i] - snapshots[i - 1]);
+    }
+    // Simple smoothed velocity: weighted average where later deltas have higher weight
+    let weightedSum = 0;
+    let weightTotal = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < deltas.length; i++) {
+        const w = i + 1; // weight increases for more recent deltas
+        weightedSum += deltas[i] * w;
+        weightTotal += w;
+    }
+    const velocity = weightTotal > 0 ? weightedSum / weightTotal : 0;
+    // Trend detection:
+    //   stalled:       velocity ≈ 0 (< 0.005)
+    //   accelerating:  later half average > earlier half average
+    //   decelerating:  later half average < earlier half average (by ≥ threshold)
+    //   steady:        otherwise
+    let trend;
+    const STALL_THRESHOLD = 0.005;
+    if (Math.abs(velocity) < STALL_THRESHOLD) {
+        trend = "stalled";
+    }
+    else if (deltas.length >= 2) {
+        const mid = Math.floor(deltas.length / 2);
+        const earlyAvg = deltas.slice(0, mid).reduce((s, d) => s + d, 0) / mid;
+        const lateAvg = deltas.slice(mid).reduce((s, d) => s + d, 0) / (deltas.length - mid);
+        const ACCEL_THRESHOLD = 0.002;
+        if (lateAvg > earlyAvg + ACCEL_THRESHOLD) {
+            trend = "accelerating";
+        }
+        else if (lateAvg < earlyAvg - ACCEL_THRESHOLD) {
+            trend = "decelerating";
+        }
+        else {
+            trend = "steady";
+        }
+    }
+    else {
+        // Only 1 delta — classify by sign
+        trend = velocity > 0 ? "steady" : "stalled";
+    }
+    return { goalId, recentProgress, velocity, trend };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio-momentum.js.map

package/dist/strategy/portfolio-momentum.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/strategy/portfolio-scheduling.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+import type { GoalDependencyGraph } from "../goal/goal-dependency-graph.js";
+import type { DependencySchedule } from "../types/cross-portfolio.js";
+/**
+ * Build a phased dependency schedule for the given goals using the provided
+ * GoalDependencyGraph instance.
+ *
+ * The schedule uses topological sort to group goals into phases where all
+ * goals in a phase can run concurrently. Phase 0 contains goals with no
+ * prerequisites; subsequent phases contain goals whose prerequisites are
+ * all satisfied by earlier phases.
+ *
+ * The critical path is the longest chain of prerequisite edges through the
+ * DAG (measured in number of nodes).
+ *
+ * @param goalIds — IDs of goals to schedule
+ * @param graph — the GoalDependencyGraph instance to query
+ * @returns DependencySchedule
+ */
+export declare function buildDependencySchedule(goalIds: string[], graph: GoalDependencyGraph): DependencySchedule;
+/**
+ * Compute the critical path (longest prerequisite chain) among the given goals.
+ * Returns the sequence of goalIds on the critical path.
+ */
+export declare function computeCriticalPath(goalIds: string[], prereqMap: Map<string, Set<string>>): string[];
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio-scheduling.d.ts.map

package/dist/strategy/portfolio-scheduling.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/strategy/portfolio-scheduling.js

@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
+// ─── Scheduling ───
+/**
+ * Build a phased dependency schedule for the given goals using the provided
+ * GoalDependencyGraph instance.
+ *
+ * The schedule uses topological sort to group goals into phases where all
+ * goals in a phase can run concurrently. Phase 0 contains goals with no
+ * prerequisites; subsequent phases contain goals whose prerequisites are
+ * all satisfied by earlier phases.
+ *
+ * The critical path is the longest chain of prerequisite edges through the
+ * DAG (measured in number of nodes).
+ *
+ * @param goalIds — IDs of goals to schedule
+ * @param graph — the GoalDependencyGraph instance to query
+ * @returns DependencySchedule
+ */
+export function buildDependencySchedule(goalIds, graph) {
+    if (goalIds.length === 0) {
+        return { phases: [], criticalPath: [] };
+    }
+    const goalSet = new Set(goalIds);
+    // Build adjacency: prereqMap[child] = Set of parents that must complete first
+    const prereqMap = new Map();
+    for (const id of goalIds) {
+        prereqMap.set(id, new Set());
+    }
+    for (const id of goalIds) {
+        const blockers = graph.getBlockingGoals(id).filter((b) => goalSet.has(b));
+        for (const blocker of blockers) {
+            prereqMap.get(id)?.add(blocker);
+        }
+    }
+    // Kahn's algorithm for topological sort into phases
+    const phases = [];
+    const completed = new Set();
+    const remaining = new Set(goalIds);
+    let phaseIndex = 0;
+    while (remaining.size > 0) {
+        // Goals whose all prerequisites are completed
+        const readyGoals = [];
+        for (const id of remaining) {
+            const prereqs = prereqMap.get(id);
+            const allSatisfied = [...prereqs].every((p) => completed.has(p));
+            if (allSatisfied) {
+                readyGoals.push(id);
+            }
+        }
+        if (readyGoals.length === 0) {
+            // Cycle detected or unresolvable — put all remaining in one phase
+            const cycleGoals = [...remaining];
+            const blockedBy = cycleGoals.flatMap((id) => [...(prereqMap.get(id) ?? [])].filter((p) => !completed.has(p)));
+            phases.push({
+                phase: phaseIndex,
+                goalIds: cycleGoals,
+                blockedBy: [...new Set(blockedBy)],
+            });
+            break;
+        }
+        // Collect the set of blockers for this phase's goals
+        const phaseBlockedBy = readyGoals.flatMap((id) => [...(prereqMap.get(id) ?? [])]);
+        phases.push({
+            phase: phaseIndex,
+            goalIds: readyGoals,
+            blockedBy: [...new Set(phaseBlockedBy)],
+        });
+        for (const id of readyGoals) {
+            completed.add(id);
+            remaining.delete(id);
+        }
+        phaseIndex++;
+    }
+    // Critical path: longest chain of prerequisite edges (BFS/DFS from each node)
+    const criticalPath = computeCriticalPath(goalIds, prereqMap);
+    return { phases, criticalPath };
+}
+/**
+ * Compute the critical path (longest prerequisite chain) among the given goals.
+ * Returns the sequence of goalIds on the critical path.
+ */
+export function computeCriticalPath(goalIds, prereqMap) {
+    // dp[id] = longest path length ending at id (in nodes)
+    const dp = new Map();
+    const parent = new Map();
+    function longestFrom(id) {
+        const cached = dp.get(id);
+        if (cached !== undefined)
+            return cached;
+        const prereqs = prereqMap.get(id) ?? new Set();
+        if (prereqs.size === 0) {
+            dp.set(id, 1);
+            parent.set(id, null);
+            return 1;
+        }
+        let best = 0;
+        let bestParent = null;
+        for (const p of prereqs) {
+            const len = longestFrom(p);
+            if (len > best) {
+                best = len;
+                bestParent = p;
+            }
+        }
+        dp.set(id, best + 1);
+        parent.set(id, bestParent);
+        return best + 1;
+    }
+    // Compute for all goals
+    for (const id of goalIds) {
+        longestFrom(id);
+    }
+    // Find the goal with the highest dp value
+    let maxLen = 0;
+    let maxGoal = goalIds[0] ?? "";
+    for (const id of goalIds) {
+        const len = dp.get(id) ?? 0;
+        if (len > maxLen) {
+            maxLen = len;
+            maxGoal = id;
+        }
+    }
+    if (maxLen === 0)
+        return [];
+    // Reconstruct path by following parent pointers
+    const path = [];
+    let current = maxGoal;
+    while (current !== null) {
+        path.unshift(current);
+        current = parent.get(current) ?? null;
+    }
+    return path;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio-scheduling.js.map

package/dist/strategy/portfolio-scheduling.js.map

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package/dist/strategy/strategy-helpers.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,109 @@
+import { z } from "zod";
+import type { StrategyState } from "../types/core.js";
+import type { Strategy } from "../types/strategy.js";
+import type { KnowledgeGapSignal } from "../types/knowledge.js";
+export declare const VALID_TRANSITIONS: Record<StrategyState, StrategyState[]>;
+export declare const StrategyArraySchema: z.ZodArray<z.ZodObject<{
+    id: z.ZodOptional<z.ZodString>;
+    hypothesis: z.ZodString;
+    expected_effect: z.ZodArray<z.ZodObject<{
+        dimension: z.ZodString;
+        direction: z.ZodEnum<["increase", "decrease"]>;
+        magnitude: z.ZodEnum<["small", "medium", "large"]>;
+    }, "strip", z.ZodTypeAny, {
+        dimension: string;
+        direction: "increase" | "decrease";
+        magnitude: "small" | "medium" | "large";
+    }, {
+        dimension: string;
+        direction: "increase" | "decrease";
+        magnitude: "small" | "medium" | "large";
+    }>, "many">;
+    resource_estimate: z.ZodObject<{
+        sessions: z.ZodNumber;
+        duration: z.ZodObject<{
+            value: z.ZodNumber;
+            unit: z.ZodEnum<["minutes", "hours", "days", "weeks"]>;
+        }, "strip", z.ZodTypeAny, {
+            value: number;
+            unit: "minutes" | "hours" | "days" | "weeks";
+        }, {
+            value: number;
+            unit: "minutes" | "hours" | "days" | "weeks";
+        }>;
+        llm_calls: z.ZodDefault<z.ZodNullable<z.ZodNumber>>;
+    }, "strip", z.ZodTypeAny, {
+        sessions: number;
+        duration: {
+            value: number;
+            unit: "minutes" | "hours" | "days" | "weeks";
+        };
+        llm_calls: number | null;
+    }, {
+        sessions: number;
+        duration: {
+            value: number;
+            unit: "minutes" | "hours" | "days" | "weeks";
+        };
+        llm_calls?: number | null | undefined;
+    }>;
+    allocation: z.ZodDefault<z.ZodNumber>;
+}, "strip", z.ZodTypeAny, {
+    hypothesis: string;
+    expected_effect: {
+        dimension: string;
+        direction: "increase" | "decrease";
+        magnitude: "small" | "medium" | "large";
+    }[];
+    resource_estimate: {
+        sessions: number;
+        duration: {
+            value: number;
+            unit: "minutes" | "hours" | "days" | "weeks";
+        };
+        llm_calls: number | null;
+    };
+    allocation: number;
+    id?: string | undefined;
+}, {
+    hypothesis: string;
+    expected_effect: {
+        dimension: string;
+        direction: "increase" | "decrease";
+        magnitude: "small" | "medium" | "large";
+    }[];
+    resource_estimate: {
+        sessions: number;
+        duration: {
+            value: number;
+            unit: "minutes" | "hours" | "days" | "weeks";
+        };
+        llm_calls?: number | null | undefined;
+    };
+    id?: string | undefined;
+    allocation?: number | undefined;
+}>, "many">;
+export declare function buildGenerationPrompt(goalId: string, primaryDimension: string, targetDimensions: string[], context: {
+    currentGap: number;
+    pastStrategies: Strategy[];
+}, enrichment?: {
+    templatesBlock?: string;
+    lessonsBlock?: string;
+}): string;
+/**
+ * Redistribute freed allocation proportionally among remaining strategies.
+ * Returns a new array with updated allocations. Pure function.
+ */
+export declare function redistributeAllocation(strategies: Strategy[], excludeId: string, freedAllocation: number): Strategy[];
+/**
+ * Detect whether a set of strategy candidates indicates a knowledge gap.
+ *
+ * Rules:
+ *   - Zero candidates → `strategy_deadlock` (no hypotheses can be formed)
+ *   - All candidates have effectiveness_score < 0.3 AND not null →
+ *     `strategy_deadlock` (all known approaches exhausted)
+ *
+ * Returns null when candidates look viable.
+ */
+export declare function detectStrategyGap(candidates: Strategy[]): KnowledgeGapSignal | null;
+//# sourceMappingURL=strategy-helpers.d.ts.map

package/dist/strategy/strategy-helpers.d.ts.map

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