claude-flow-novice 2.15.11 → 2.16.0

package/claude-assets/skills/cfn-loop-orchestration/src/helpers/CONFIDENCE_AGGREGATOR.md

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+# Confidence Score Aggregation Module
+
+**Phase 4 · P1 Priority · Loop 3 Score Aggregation**
+
+## Overview
+
+The Confidence Score Aggregator is a comprehensive TypeScript module for collecting, analyzing, and reporting on confidence scores from CFN Loop 3 (implementer) agents. It provides advanced statistical analysis, outlier detection, and weighted averaging capabilities.
+
+**Module Location:** `src/helpers/confidence-aggregator.ts`
+**Test Suite:** `tests/confidence-aggregator.test.ts`
+**Implementation:** 230+ LOC
+**Test Coverage:** 53 comprehensive tests
+
+## Key Features
+
+### 1. Score Validation
+- Validates confidence scores are within valid range [0.0, 1.0]
+- Filters invalid scores while preserving valid ones
+- Provides detailed validation error reporting
+
+### 2. Statistical Analysis
+- **Min/Max:** Identifies extreme values
+- **Average:** Calculates mean confidence
+- **Median:** Finds middle value (robust to outliers)
+- **Standard Deviation:** Measures consistency
+- **Variance:** Calculates squared deviation
+- **Range:** Shows span of scores
+
+### 3. Outlier Detection
+- **IQR Method:** Interquartile Range analysis
+- **Customizable Threshold:** Adjust sensitivity (default 1.5)
+- **Outlier Identification:** Lists anomalous scores
+- **Percentage Calculation:** Shows outlier prevalence
+
+### 4. Aggregation Metrics
+- **Aggregate Score:** Confidence average
+- **Confidence Rating:** Composite metric based on consistency and agent count
+- **Validity Status:** Boolean indicating data quality
+
+### 5. Weighted Averaging
+- **Default Weighting:** Equal distribution
+- **Custom Weights:** Agent-specific contribution
+- **Weight Normalization:** Automatic scaling to sum = 1.0
+- **Contribution Map:** Shows each agent's impact
+
+### 6. Analysis by Agent Type
+- **Grouping:** Organize scores by agent type
+- **Type Statistics:** Separate analysis per type
+- **Performance Comparison:** Identify high/low performing types
+- **Low Performer Detection:** Find problematic agent types
+
+### 7. Reporting
+- **Summary Generation:** Human-readable reports
+- **Structured Output:** Complete aggregation result object
+- **Error Reporting:** Detailed validation messages
+- **Timestamp Tracking:** When aggregation occurred
+
+## Core Interfaces
+
+```typescript
+/**
+ * Individual confidence score from an agent
+ */
+export interface ConfidenceScore {
+  agentId: string;              // Unique agent identifier
+  agentType: string;            // Type of agent (e.g., 'backend-dev')
+  score: number;                // Confidence value [0.0, 1.0]
+  timestamp: number;            // Unix timestamp of score
+  metadata?: Record<string, any>; // Optional additional data
+}
+
+/**
+ * Statistical measures for aggregated scores
+ */
+export interface ScoreStatistics {
+  min: number;                  // Minimum score
+  max: number;                  // Maximum score
+  average: number;              // Mean score
+  median: number;               // Median score
+  stddev: number;               // Standard deviation
+  count: number;                // Number of scores
+  range: number;                // Max - min
+  variance: number;             // Squared standard deviation
+}
+
+/**
+ * Aggregated confidence with full analysis
+ */
+export interface AggregatedConfidence {
+  scores: ConfidenceScore[];    // Valid scores only
+  statistics: ScoreStatistics;  // Statistical analysis
+  outliers: ConfidenceScore[];  // Detected outliers
+  aggregateScore: number;       // Average of scores
+  confidence: number;           // Composite confidence metric
+  isValid: boolean;             // Data quality indicator
+  validationErrors: string[];   // List of validation issues
+  timestamp: number;            // When aggregation occurred
+}
+
+/**
+ * Weighted confidence score result
+ */
+export interface WeightedAggregation {
+  weights: Map<string, number>;           // Original weights
+  weightedScore: number;                  // Calculated weighted average
+  normalizedWeights: Map<string, number>; // Normalized to sum = 1.0
+  contributionMap: Map<string, number>;   // Per-agent contribution
+}
+```
+
+## API Reference
+
+### validateScoreRange(score: number): boolean
+
+Validates that a score is within valid range [0.0, 1.0].
+
+```typescript
+validateScoreRange(0.85);  // → true
+validateScoreRange(1.5);   // → false
+validateScoreRange(-0.1);  // → false
+```
+
+### aggregateScores(scores: ConfidenceScore[]): AggregatedConfidence
+
+Core function for aggregating confidence scores with complete statistical analysis.
+
+```typescript
+const scores: ConfidenceScore[] = [
+  { agentId: 'a1', agentType: 'backend', score: 0.92, timestamp: Date.now() },
+  { agentId: 'a2', agentType: 'backend', score: 0.88, timestamp: Date.now() },
+  { agentId: 'a3', agentType: 'frontend', score: 0.95, timestamp: Date.now() }
+];
+
+const result = aggregateScores(scores);
+console.log(result.statistics.average);  // 0.917
+console.log(result.confidence);          // ~0.85
+console.log(result.isValid);             // true
+```
+
+**Returns:**
+- Statistical analysis of all valid scores
+- Detected outliers (IQR method)
+- Composite confidence metric
+- Validation error list
+
+### detectOutliers(scores: ConfidenceScore[], threshold?: number): OutlierDetectionResult
+
+Identifies anomalous scores using Interquartile Range (IQR) method.
+
+```typescript
+const result = detectOutliers(scores, 1.5); // Default threshold = 1.5
+
+console.log(result.outlierCount);      // Number of outliers
+console.log(result.outlierPercentage); // % of data
+console.log(result.outliers);          // List of outlier scores
+console.log(result.isOutlier(score));  // Predicate function
+```
+
+**Parameters:**
+- `scores`: Array of confidence scores
+- `threshold`: IQR multiplier for sensitivity (default: 1.5)
+  - Lower threshold = stricter outlier detection
+  - Higher threshold = lenient outlier detection
+
+**Returns:**
+- `outliers`: Identified outlier scores
+- `isOutlier()`: Function to test if a score is outlier
+- `outlierCount`: Number of outliers
+- `outlierPercentage`: Percentage of scores that are outliers
+
+### calculateWeightedAverage(scores: ConfidenceScore[], weightMap?: Map): WeightedAggregation
+
+Calculates weighted average with custom or equal weights.
+
+```typescript
+// Equal weights (default)
+const result1 = calculateWeightedAverage(scores);
+console.log(result1.weightedScore); // 0.917
+
+// Custom weights - prioritize senior developers
+const weights = new Map([
+  ['senior-1', 3],
+  ['mid-1', 2],
+  ['junior-1', 1]
+]);
+const result2 = calculateWeightedAverage(scores, weights);
+console.log(result2.weightedScore);
+console.log(result2.normalizedWeights); // Normalized to sum = 1.0
+console.log(result2.contributionMap);   // Per-agent contribution
+```
+
+### groupByAgentType(scores: ConfidenceScore[]): Map<string, ConfidenceScore[]>
+
+Groups scores by agent type for type-specific analysis.
+
+```typescript
+const grouped = groupByAgentType(scores);
+// Map {
+//   'backend-dev': [ ... ],
+//   'frontend-dev': [ ... ],
+//   'devops-engineer': [ ... ]
+// }
+```
+
+### analyzeByAgentType(scores: ConfidenceScore[]): Map<string, ScoreStatistics>
+
+Calculates statistics for each agent type separately.
+
+```typescript
+const analysis = analyzeByAgentType(scores);
+const backendStats = analysis.get('backend-dev');
+
+console.log(backendStats?.average);  // Backend avg confidence
+console.log(backendStats?.stddev);   // Backend consistency
+console.log(backendStats?.count);    // Number of backend agents
+```
+
+### identifyLowPerformers(scores: ConfidenceScore[], threshold?: number): ConfidenceScore[]
+
+Identifies agents from types with below-threshold average scores.
+
+```typescript
+// Find agents from poorly performing agent types
+const lowPerformers = identifyLowPerformers(scores, 0.75);
+
+console.log(lowPerformers.length); // Number of low performers
+// Returns all agents from agent types averaging < 0.75
+```
+
+### generateSummary(aggregated: AggregatedConfidence): string
+
+Generates human-readable summary report.
+
+```typescript
+const aggregated = aggregateScores(scores);
+const summary = generateSummary(aggregated);
+
+console.log(summary);
+// Output:
+// === Confidence Score Aggregation Summary ===
+// Total Agents: 5
+// Aggregate Score: 0.904
+// Confidence: 0.856
+//
+// Statistics:
+//   Min: 0.870
+//   Max: 0.950
+//   Average: 0.904
+//   Median: 0.900
+//   StdDev: 0.028
+//   Range: 0.080
+```
+
+## Usage Examples
+
+### Example 1: Basic Aggregation
+
+```typescript
+import {
+  ConfidenceScore,
+  aggregateScores
+} from '@orchestrator/helpers/confidence-aggregator';
+
+const scores: ConfidenceScore[] = [
+  { agentId: 'impl-1', agentType: 'backend-dev', score: 0.92, timestamp: Date.now() },
+  { agentId: 'impl-2', agentType: 'backend-dev', score: 0.88, timestamp: Date.now() },
+  { agentId: 'impl-3', agentType: 'frontend-dev', score: 0.95, timestamp: Date.now() }
+];
+
+const result = aggregateScores(scores);
+
+if (result.isValid) {
+  console.log(`Average confidence: ${result.aggregateScore.toFixed(3)}`);
+  console.log(`Overall confidence: ${result.confidence.toFixed(3)}`);
+} else {
+  console.error('Validation errors:', result.validationErrors);
+}
+```
+
+### Example 2: Outlier Detection
+
+```typescript
+import { aggregateScores, detectOutliers } from '@orchestrator/helpers/confidence-aggregator';
+
+const aggregated = aggregateScores(scores);
+
+if (aggregated.outliers.length > 0) {
+  console.warn('Outliers detected:');
+  for (const outlier of aggregated.outliers) {
+    console.warn(`  ${outlier.agentId}: ${outlier.score.toFixed(3)}`);
+  }
+}
+```
+
+### Example 3: Performance Analysis by Type
+
+```typescript
+import { analyzeByAgentType, identifyLowPerformers } from '@orchestrator/helpers/confidence-aggregator';
+
+const analysis = analyzeByAgentType(scores);
+
+// Show statistics per type
+for (const [type, stats] of analysis.entries()) {
+  console.log(`${type}:`);
+  console.log(`  Avg: ${stats.average.toFixed(3)}`);
+  console.log(`  StdDev: ${stats.stddev.toFixed(3)}`);
+  console.log(`  Count: ${stats.count}`);
+}
+
+// Identify problematic types
+const lowPerformers = identifyLowPerformers(scores, 0.80);
+if (lowPerformers.length > 0) {
+  console.warn('Low performing agent types detected');
+}
+```
+
+### Example 4: Weighted Aggregation
+
+```typescript
+import { calculateWeightedAverage } from '@orchestrator/helpers/confidence-aggregator';
+
+// Prioritize scores from more experienced agents
+const weights = new Map([
+  ['senior-backend-1', 3],
+  ['mid-backend-1', 2],
+  ['junior-backend-1', 1]
+]);
+
+const weighted = calculateWeightedAverage(scores, weights);
+
+console.log(`Standard average: ${weighted.weightedScore.toFixed(3)}`);
+console.log('Agent contributions:');
+for (const [agentId, contribution] of weighted.contributionMap.entries()) {
+  console.log(`  ${agentId}: ${(contribution * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
+}
+```
+
+### Example 5: Loop 3 Integration
+
+```typescript
+import { aggregateScores, generateSummary } from '@orchestrator/helpers/confidence-aggregator';
+
+// Collect scores from all Loop 3 implementers
+async function aggregateLoop3Scores(taskId: string, iteration: number) {
+  const scores = await collectScoresFromRedis(taskId, iteration);
+
+  const result = aggregateScores(scores);
+
+  // Generate report
+  const summary = generateSummary(result);
+  console.log(summary);
+
+  // Use aggregate for gate check
+  const passGate = result.aggregateScore >= 0.85 && result.isValid;
+
+  return { result, passGate };
+}
+```
+
+## Statistical Details
+
+### Confidence Calculation
+
+The confidence metric combines three factors:
+
+```
+confidence = (aggregateScore + consistencyBonus + agentCountBonus) / 3
+
+where:
+  aggregateScore = average of all valid scores
+  consistencyBonus = max(0, 1 - (stddev / 0.5))
+  agentCountBonus = min(1, agentCount / 5)
+```
+
+This favors:
+- Higher average scores
+- More consistent scores (lower stddev)
+- More agents reporting confidence
+
+### Outlier Detection (IQR Method)
+
+```
+Q1 = value at 25th percentile
+Q3 = value at 75th percentile
+IQR = Q3 - Q1
+
+Lower Bound = Q1 - (threshold × IQR)
+Upper Bound = Q3 + (threshold × IQR)
+
+Outlier = score < Lower Bound OR score > Upper Bound
+```
+
+Default threshold 1.5 is standard statistical practice.
+
+## Error Handling
+
+### Validation Errors
+
+The module gracefully handles invalid data:
+
+```typescript
+const mixed = [
+  { agentId: 'a1', agentType: 'dev', score: 0.90, timestamp: Date.now() },
+  { agentId: 'a2', agentType: 'dev', score: 1.5, timestamp: Date.now() },  // Invalid
+  { agentId: 'a3', agentType: 'dev', score: -0.1, timestamp: Date.now() }  // Invalid
+];
+
+const result = aggregateScores(mixed);
+
+console.log(result.isValid);           // false
+console.log(result.statistics.count);  // 1 (only valid score counted)
+console.log(result.validationErrors);  // Array of error messages
+```
+
+### Edge Cases
+
+The module handles:
+- Empty score arrays
+- Null/undefined input
+- Single score (stddev = 0)
+- All identical scores (stddev = 0)
+- Insufficient data for outlier detection (< 4 scores)
+
+## Testing
+
+### Test Coverage: 53 Tests
+
+**Test Categories:**
+
+1. **Score Validation (7 tests)**
+   - Valid ranges
+   - Invalid scores
+   - Non-numeric values
+
+2. **Outlier Detection (6 tests)**
+   - Uniform scores
+   - Extreme values
+   - Insufficient data
+   - Custom thresholds
+
+3. **Aggregation (17 tests)**
+   - Statistics calculation
+   - Validity checking
+   - Confidence scoring
+   - Invalid score filtering
+   - Metadata preservation
+
+4. **Weighted Averaging (7 tests)**
+   - Equal weights
+   - Custom weights
+   - Weight normalization
+   - Contribution mapping
+
+5. **Grouping & Analysis (7 tests)**
+   - Type-based grouping
+   - Per-type statistics
+   - Low performer detection
+
+6. **Reporting (5 tests)**
+   - Summary generation
+   - Error reporting
+   - Statistics inclusion
+
+7. **Integration (4 tests)**
+   - End-to-end pipeline
+   - Real-world scenarios
+   - Loop 2 consensus validation
+
+**Running Tests:**
+
+```bash
+# All confidence aggregator tests
+npm test -- confidence-aggregator.test.ts
+
+# Watch mode
+npm test -- confidence-aggregator.test.ts --watch
+
+# With coverage
+npm test -- confidence-aggregator.test.ts --coverage
+```
+
+## Performance Characteristics
+
+- **Time Complexity:**
+  - Aggregation: O(n log n) due to sorting for median/quartiles
+  - Weighted averaging: O(n)
+  - Outlier detection: O(n log n)
+
+- **Space Complexity:** O(n) for storing results
+
+- **Typical Performance:**
+  - 1,000 scores: < 1ms
+  - 10,000 scores: < 5ms
+  - 100,000 scores: < 50ms
+
+## Integration with CFN Loop v3
+
+### Loop 3 Integration
+
+```typescript
+// In orchestrator after Loop 3 completion
+const aggregated = aggregateScores(loop3Scores);
+
+// Use for gate check
+if (aggregated.aggregateScore >= gateThreshold && aggregated.isValid) {
+  // Proceed to Loop 2
+} else {
+  // Iterate Loop 3
+}
+```
+
+### Loop 2 Consensus
+
+```typescript
+// Alias confidence scores as consensus for Loop 2
+const consensusScores: ConfidenceScore[] = validatorScores.map(v => ({
+  agentId: v.validatorId,
+  agentType: 'validator',
+  score: v.consensusScore,
+  timestamp: v.reportedAt
+}));
+
+const consensus = aggregateScores(consensusScores);
+```
+
+## Dependencies
+
+- **No external dependencies** - Pure TypeScript
+- **Target Environment:** Node.js 18+, ES2022+
+- **Type Safety:** Full strict mode compliance
+
+## Export Path
+
+```typescript
+import {
+  aggregateScores,
+  detectOutliers,
+  calculateWeightedAverage,
+  analyzeByAgentType,
+  identifyLowPerformers,
+  generateSummary,
+  type ConfidenceScore,
+  type AggregatedConfidence,
+  type ScoreStatistics,
+  type WeightedAggregation
+} from '@cfn/loop-orchestration';
+```
+
+## Future Enhancements
+
+Potential future improvements:
+1. **Temporal Analysis** - Track score trends over iterations
+2. **Prediction** - Estimate future confidence trajectories
+3. **Regression Detection** - Identify quality decline patterns
+4. **Custom Metrics** - Pluggable statistical algorithms
+5. **Persistence** - Store aggregation history
+6. **Visualization** - Generate charts/graphs
+
+## References
+
+- **Test Suite:** `tests/confidence-aggregator.test.ts` (53 tests)
+- **Type Definitions:** Core interfaces in module header
+- **CFN Loop Documentation:** `.claude/skills/cfn-loop-orchestration/`
+- **Gate Checking:** Uses aggregateScore for Loop 3 gate validation