bmad-method 5.1.3 → 6.0.0-alpha.1

package/src/modules/bmm/workflows/1-analysis/research/instructions-market.md

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+# Market Research Workflow Instructions
+
+<critical>The workflow execution engine is governed by: {project_root}/bmad/core/tasks/workflow.xml</critical>
+<critical>You MUST have already loaded and processed: {installed_path}/workflow.yaml</critical>
+<critical>This is an INTERACTIVE workflow with web research capabilities. Engage the user at key decision points.</critical>
+
+<!-- IDE-INJECT-POINT: market-research-subagents -->
+
+<workflow>
+
+<step n="1" goal="Research Discovery and Scoping">
+<action>Welcome the user and explain the market research journey ahead</action>
+
+Ask the user these critical questions to shape the research:
+
+1. **What is the product/service you're researching?**
+   - Name and brief description
+   - Current stage (idea, MVP, launched, scaling)
+
+2. **What are your primary research objectives?**
+   - Market sizing and opportunity assessment?
+   - Competitive intelligence gathering?
+   - Customer segment validation?
+   - Go-to-market strategy development?
+   - Investment/fundraising support?
+   - Product-market fit validation?
+
+3. **Research depth preference:**
+   - Quick scan (2-3 hours) - High-level insights
+   - Standard analysis (4-6 hours) - Comprehensive coverage
+   - Deep dive (8+ hours) - Exhaustive research with modeling
+
+4. **Do you have any existing research or documents to build upon?**
+
+<template-output>product_name</template-output>
+<template-output>product_description</template-output>
+<template-output>research_objectives</template-output>
+<template-output>research_depth</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="2" goal="Market Definition and Boundaries">
+<action>Help the user precisely define the market scope</action>
+
+Work with the user to establish:
+
+1. **Market Category Definition**
+   - Primary category/industry
+   - Adjacent or overlapping markets
+   - Where this fits in the value chain
+
+2. **Geographic Scope**
+   - Global, regional, or country-specific?
+   - Primary markets vs. expansion markets
+   - Regulatory considerations by region
+
+3. **Customer Segment Boundaries**
+   - B2B, B2C, or B2B2C?
+   - Primary vs. secondary segments
+   - Segment size estimates
+
+<ask>Should we include adjacent markets in the TAM calculation? This could significantly increase market size but may be less immediately addressable.</ask>
+
+<template-output>market_definition</template-output>
+<template-output>geographic_scope</template-output>
+<template-output>segment_boundaries</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="3" goal="Live Market Intelligence Gathering" if="enable_web_research == true">
+<action>Conduct real-time web research to gather current market data</action>
+
+<critical>This step performs ACTUAL web searches to gather live market intelligence</critical>
+
+Conduct systematic research across multiple sources:
+
+<step n="3a" title="Industry Reports and Statistics">
+<action>Search for latest industry reports, market size data, and growth projections</action>
+Search queries to execute:
+- "[market_category] market size [geographic_scope] [current_year]"
+- "[market_category] industry report Gartner Forrester IDC McKinsey"
+- "[market_category] market growth rate CAGR forecast"
+- "[market_category] market trends [current_year]"
+
+<invoke-task halt="true">{project-root}/bmad/core/tasks/adv-elicit.xml</invoke-task>
+</step>
+
+<step n="3b" title="Regulatory and Government Data">
+<action>Search government databases and regulatory sources</action>
+Search for:
+- Government statistics bureaus
+- Industry associations
+- Regulatory body reports
+- Census and economic data
+</step>
+
+<step n="3c" title="News and Recent Developments">
+<action>Gather recent news, funding announcements, and market events</action>
+Search for articles from the last 6-12 months about:
+- Major deals and acquisitions
+- Funding rounds in the space
+- New market entrants
+- Regulatory changes
+- Technology disruptions
+</step>
+
+<step n="3d" title="Academic and Research Papers">
+<action>Search for academic research and white papers</action>
+Look for peer-reviewed studies on:
+- Market dynamics
+- Technology adoption patterns
+- Customer behavior research
+</step>
+
+<template-output>market_intelligence_raw</template-output>
+<template-output>key_data_points</template-output>
+<template-output>source_credibility_notes</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="4" goal="TAM, SAM, SOM Calculations">
+<action>Calculate market sizes using multiple methodologies for triangulation</action>
+
+<critical>Use actual data gathered in previous steps, not hypothetical numbers</critical>
+
+<step n="4a" title="TAM Calculation">
+**Method 1: Top-Down Approach**
+- Start with total industry size from research
+- Apply relevant filters and segments
+- Show calculation: Industry Size × Relevant Percentage
+
+**Method 2: Bottom-Up Approach**
+
+- Number of potential customers × Average revenue per customer
+- Build from unit economics
+
+**Method 3: Value Theory Approach**
+
+- Value created × Capturable percentage
+- Based on problem severity and alternative costs
+
+<ask>Which TAM calculation method seems most credible given our data? Should we use multiple methods and triangulate?</ask>
+
+<template-output>tam_calculation</template-output>
+<template-output>tam_methodology</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="4b" title="SAM Calculation">
+<action>Calculate Serviceable Addressable Market</action>
+
+Apply constraints to TAM:
+
+- Geographic limitations (markets you can serve)
+- Regulatory restrictions
+- Technical requirements (e.g., internet penetration)
+- Language/cultural barriers
+- Current business model limitations
+
+SAM = TAM × Serviceable Percentage
+Show the calculation with clear assumptions.
+
+<template-output>sam_calculation</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="4c" title="SOM Calculation">
+<action>Calculate realistic market capture</action>
+
+Consider competitive dynamics:
+
+- Current market share of competitors
+- Your competitive advantages
+- Resource constraints
+- Time to market considerations
+- Customer acquisition capabilities
+
+Create 3 scenarios:
+
+1. Conservative (1-2% market share)
+2. Realistic (3-5% market share)
+3. Optimistic (5-10% market share)
+
+<template-output>som_scenarios</template-output>
+</step>
+</step>
+
+<step n="5" goal="Customer Segment Deep Dive">
+<action>Develop detailed understanding of target customers</action>
+
+<step n="5a" title="Segment Identification" repeat="for-each-segment">
+For each major segment, research and define:
+
+**Demographics/Firmographics:**
+
+- Size and scale characteristics
+- Geographic distribution
+- Industry/vertical (for B2B)
+
+**Psychographics:**
+
+- Values and priorities
+- Decision-making process
+- Technology adoption patterns
+
+**Behavioral Patterns:**
+
+- Current solutions used
+- Purchasing frequency
+- Budget allocation
+
+<invoke-task halt="true">{project-root}/bmad/core/tasks/adv-elicit.xml</invoke-task>
+<template-output>segment*profile*{{segment_number}}</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="5b" title="Jobs-to-be-Done Framework">
+<action>Apply JTBD framework to understand customer needs</action>
+
+For primary segment, identify:
+
+**Functional Jobs:**
+
+- Main tasks to accomplish
+- Problems to solve
+- Goals to achieve
+
+**Emotional Jobs:**
+
+- Feelings sought
+- Anxieties to avoid
+- Status desires
+
+**Social Jobs:**
+
+- How they want to be perceived
+- Group dynamics
+- Peer influences
+
+<ask>Would you like to conduct actual customer interviews or surveys to validate these jobs? (We can create an interview guide)</ask>
+
+<template-output>jobs_to_be_done</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="5c" title="Willingness to Pay Analysis">
+<action>Research and estimate pricing sensitivity</action>
+
+Analyze:
+
+- Current spending on alternatives
+- Budget allocation for this category
+- Value perception indicators
+- Price points of substitutes
+
+<template-output>pricing_analysis</template-output>
+</step>
+</step>
+
+<step n="6" goal="Competitive Intelligence" if="enable_competitor_analysis == true">
+<action>Conduct comprehensive competitive analysis</action>
+
+<step n="6a" title="Competitor Identification">
+<action>Create comprehensive competitor list</action>
+
+Search for and categorize:
+
+1. **Direct Competitors** - Same solution, same market
+2. **Indirect Competitors** - Different solution, same problem
+3. **Potential Competitors** - Could enter market
+4. **Substitute Products** - Alternative approaches
+
+<ask>Do you have a specific list of competitors to analyze, or should I discover them through research?</ask>
+</step>
+
+<step n="6b" title="Competitor Deep Dive" repeat="5">
+<action>For top 5 competitors, research and analyze</action>
+
+Gather intelligence on:
+
+- Company overview and history
+- Product features and positioning
+- Pricing strategy and models
+- Target customer focus
+- Recent news and developments
+- Funding and financial health
+- Team and leadership
+- Customer reviews and sentiment
+
+<invoke-task halt="true">{project-root}/bmad/core/tasks/adv-elicit.xml</invoke-task>
+<template-output>competitor*analysis*{{competitor_number}}</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="6c" title="Competitive Positioning Map">
+<action>Create positioning analysis</action>
+
+Map competitors on key dimensions:
+
+- Price vs. Value
+- Feature completeness vs. Ease of use
+- Market segment focus
+- Technology approach
+- Business model
+
+Identify:
+
+- Gaps in the market
+- Over-served areas
+- Differentiation opportunities
+
+<template-output>competitive_positioning</template-output>
+</step>
+</step>
+
+<step n="7" goal="Industry Forces Analysis">
+<action>Apply Porter's Five Forces framework</action>
+
+<critical>Use specific evidence from research, not generic assessments</critical>
+
+Analyze each force with concrete examples:
+
+<step n="7a" title="Supplier Power">
+Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
+- Key suppliers and dependencies
+- Switching costs
+- Concentration of suppliers
+- Forward integration threat
+</step>
+
+<step n="7b" title="Buyer Power">
+Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
+- Customer concentration
+- Price sensitivity
+- Switching costs for customers
+- Backward integration threat
+</step>
+
+<step n="7c" title="Competitive Rivalry">
+Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
+- Number and strength of competitors
+- Industry growth rate
+- Exit barriers
+- Differentiation levels
+</step>
+
+<step n="7d" title="Threat of New Entry">
+Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
+- Capital requirements
+- Regulatory barriers
+- Network effects
+- Brand loyalty
+</step>
+
+<step n="7e" title="Threat of Substitutes">
+Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
+- Alternative solutions
+- Switching costs to substitutes
+- Price-performance trade-offs
+</step>
+
+<template-output>porters_five_forces</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="8" goal="Market Trends and Future Outlook">
+<action>Identify trends and future market dynamics</action>
+
+Research and analyze:
+
+**Technology Trends:**
+
+- Emerging technologies impacting market
+- Digital transformation effects
+- Automation possibilities
+
+**Social/Cultural Trends:**
+
+- Changing customer behaviors
+- Generational shifts
+- Social movements impact
+
+**Economic Trends:**
+
+- Macroeconomic factors
+- Industry-specific economics
+- Investment trends
+
+**Regulatory Trends:**
+
+- Upcoming regulations
+- Compliance requirements
+- Policy direction
+
+<ask>Should we explore any specific emerging technologies or disruptions that could reshape this market?</ask>
+
+<template-output>market_trends</template-output>
+<template-output>future_outlook</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="9" goal="Opportunity Assessment and Strategy">
+<action>Synthesize research into strategic opportunities</action>
+
+<step n="9a" title="Opportunity Identification">
+Based on all research, identify top 3-5 opportunities:
+
+For each opportunity:
+
+- Description and rationale
+- Size estimate (from SOM)
+- Resource requirements
+- Time to market
+- Risk assessment
+- Success criteria
+
+<invoke-task halt="true">{project-root}/bmad/core/tasks/adv-elicit.xml</invoke-task>
+<template-output>market_opportunities</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="9b" title="Go-to-Market Recommendations">
+Develop GTM strategy based on research:
+
+**Positioning Strategy:**
+
+- Value proposition refinement
+- Differentiation approach
+- Messaging framework
+
+**Target Segment Sequencing:**
+
+- Beachhead market selection
+- Expansion sequence
+- Segment-specific approaches
+
+**Channel Strategy:**
+
+- Distribution channels
+- Partnership opportunities
+- Marketing channels
+
+**Pricing Strategy:**
+
+- Model recommendation
+- Price points
+- Value metrics
+
+<template-output>gtm_strategy</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="9c" title="Risk Analysis">
+Identify and assess key risks:
+
+**Market Risks:**
+
+- Demand uncertainty
+- Market timing
+- Economic sensitivity
+
+**Competitive Risks:**
+
+- Competitor responses
+- New entrants
+- Technology disruption
+
+**Execution Risks:**
+
+- Resource requirements
+- Capability gaps
+- Scaling challenges
+
+For each risk: Impact (H/M/L) × Probability (H/M/L) = Risk Score
+Provide mitigation strategies.
+
+<template-output>risk_assessment</template-output>
+</step>
+</step>
+
+<step n="10" goal="Financial Projections" optional="true" if="enable_financial_modeling == true">
+<action>Create financial model based on market research</action>
+
+<ask>Would you like to create a financial model with revenue projections based on the market analysis?</ask>
+
+<check if="yes">
+  Build 3-year projections:
+
+- Revenue model based on SOM scenarios
+- Customer acquisition projections
+- Unit economics
+- Break-even analysis
+- Funding requirements
+
+<template-output>financial_projections</template-output>
+</check>
+
+</step>
+
+<step n="11" goal="Executive Summary Creation">
+<action>Synthesize all findings into executive summary</action>
+
+<critical>Write this AFTER all other sections are complete</critical>
+
+Create compelling executive summary with:
+
+**Market Opportunity:**
+
+- TAM/SAM/SOM summary
+- Growth trajectory
+
+**Key Insights:**
+
+- Top 3-5 findings
+- Surprising discoveries
+- Critical success factors
+
+**Competitive Landscape:**
+
+- Market structure
+- Positioning opportunity
+
+**Strategic Recommendations:**
+
+- Priority actions
+- Go-to-market approach
+- Investment requirements
+
+**Risk Summary:**
+
+- Major risks
+- Mitigation approach
+
+<template-output>executive_summary</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="12" goal="Report Compilation and Review">
+<action>Compile full report and review with user</action>
+
+<action>Generate the complete market research report using the template</action>
+<action>Review all sections for completeness and consistency</action>
+<action>Ensure all data sources are properly cited</action>
+
+<ask>Would you like to review any specific sections before finalizing? Are there any additional analyses you'd like to include?</ask>
+
+<goto step="9a" if="user requests changes">Return to refine opportunities</goto>
+
+<template-output>final_report_ready</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="13" goal="Appendices and Supporting Materials" optional="true">
+<ask>Would you like to include detailed appendices with calculations, full competitor profiles, or raw research data?</ask>
+
+<check if="yes">
+  Create appendices with:
+
+- Detailed TAM/SAM/SOM calculations
+- Full competitor profiles
+- Customer interview notes
+- Data sources and methodology
+- Financial model details
+- Glossary of terms
+
+<template-output>appendices</template-output>
+</check>
+
+</step>
+
+<step n="14" goal="Update status file on completion">
+<action>Search {output_folder}/ for files matching pattern: bmm-workflow-status.md</action>
+<action>Find the most recent file (by date in filename)</action>
+
+<check if="status file exists">
+  <invoke-workflow path="{project-root}/bmad/bmm/workflows/workflow-status">
+    <param>mode: update</param>
+    <param>action: complete_workflow</param>
+    <param>workflow_name: research</param>
+  </invoke-workflow>
+
+  <check if="success == true">
+    <output>Status updated! Next: {{next_workflow}}</output>
+  </check>
+</check>
+
+<output>**✅ Research Complete ({{research_mode}} mode)**
+
+**Research Report:**
+
+- Research report generated and saved
+
+**Status file updated:**
+
+- Current step: research ({{research_mode}}) ✓
+- Progress: {{new_progress_percentage}}%
+
+**Next Steps:**
+
+- **Next required:** {{next_workflow}} ({{next_agent}} agent)
+- **Optional:** Review findings with stakeholders, or run additional analysis workflows (product-brief, game-brief, etc.)
+
+Check status anytime with: `workflow-status`
+</output>
+</check>
+
+<check if="status file not found">
+  <output>**✅ Research Complete ({{research_mode}} mode)**
+
+**Research Report:**
+
+- Research report generated and saved
+
+Note: Running in standalone mode (no status file).
+
+**Next Steps:**
+
+Since no workflow is in progress:
+
+- Review research findings
+- Refer to the BMM workflow guide if unsure what to do next
+- Or run `workflow-init` to create a workflow path and get guided next steps
+  </output>
+  </check>
+  </step>
+
+</workflow>