alphacouncil-agent 0.9.4 → 1.0.1

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/decision_policy.json

@@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
+{
+  "abstention_policy": "fail_closed",
+  "dsl_version": "1.1",
+  "eligibility": {
+    "all": [
+      {
+        "condition": {
+          "op": "exists",
+          "value": {
+            "fact_id": "fund.top_ten_weight"
+          }
+        },
+        "condition_id": "master_bogle.holdings_breadth_visible",
+        "on_false": {
+          "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+          "native_state": "provisional_insufficient_return_inputs"
+        },
+        "on_uncomputable": {
+          "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+          "native_state": "provisional_insufficient_return_inputs"
+        },
+        "source_ids": [
+          "proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"
+        ]
+      }
+    ]
+  },
+  "fact_gate": {
+    "on_missing_critical": {
+      "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+      "native_state": "provisional_insufficient_return_inputs"
+    }
+  },
+  "hard_vetoes": [
+    {
+      "condition": {
+        "left": {
+          "output_id": "index.fundamental_expected_return.master_bogle"
+        },
+        "op": "lte",
+        "right": {
+          "fact_id": "macro.breakeven_inflation"
+        }
+      },
+      "on_trigger": {
+        "common_stance": "opposed",
+        "native_state": "provisional_overpriced_market"
+      },
+      "on_uncomputable": {
+        "action": "abstain",
+        "decision": {
+          "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+          "native_state": "provisional_insufficient_return_inputs"
+        }
+      },
+      "source_ids": [
+        "proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"
+      ],
+      "veto_id": "master_bogle.expected_return_below_inflation"
+    }
+  ],
+  "native_decision_schema": "expected_market_return_v1",
+  "native_output_fields": [
+    {
+      "field": "metric_1",
+      "on_missing": "fail",
+      "value": {
+        "output_id": "index.fundamental_expected_return.master_bogle"
+      }
+    },
+    {
+      "field": "metric_2",
+      "on_missing": "fail",
+      "value": {
+        "output_id": "index.expected_return_over_long_bond.master_bogle"
+      }
+    }
+  ],
+  "native_states": [
+    "provisional_insufficient_return_inputs",
+    "provisional_overpriced_market",
+    "provisional_fair_expected_return",
+    "provisional_low_cost_index_candidate"
+  ],
+  "schema_version": 1,
+  "score_bands": [
+    {
+      "decision": {
+        "common_stance": "opposed",
+        "native_state": "provisional_overpriced_market"
+      },
+      "min_ratio": 0
+    },
+    {
+      "decision": {
+        "common_stance": "cautious",
+        "native_state": "provisional_fair_expected_return"
+      },
+      "min_ratio": 0.5
+    },
+    {
+      "decision": {
+        "common_stance": "constructive",
+        "native_state": "provisional_low_cost_index_candidate"
+      },
+      "min_ratio": 1
+    }
+  ],
+  "scoring": {
+    "max_score": 3,
+    "min_coverage": 1,
+    "on_insufficient_coverage": {
+      "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+      "native_state": "provisional_insufficient_return_inputs"
+    },
+    "rules": [
+      {
+        "condition": {
+          "left": {
+            "output_id": "index.expected_return_over_long_bond.master_bogle"
+          },
+          "op": "gt",
+          "right": {
+            "literal": 0
+          }
+        },
+        "coverage_weight": 1,
+        "points": 1,
+        "rule_id": "bogle_fundamental_return_beats_long_bond",
+        "source_ids": [
+          "proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"
+        ]
+      },
+      {
+        "condition": {
+          "left": {
+            "fact_id": "index.aggregate_earnings_yield"
+          },
+          "op": "gte",
+          "right": {
+            "literal": 0.0667
+          }
+        },
+        "coverage_weight": 1,
+        "points": 1,
+        "rule_id": "bogle_multiple_at_or_below_long_run_norm",
+        "source_ids": [
+          "proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"
+        ]
+      },
+      {
+        "condition": {
+          "left": {
+            "fact_id": "fund.top_ten_weight"
+          },
+          "op": "lte",
+          "right": {
+            "literal": 0.5
+          }
+        },
+        "coverage_weight": 1,
+        "points": 1,
+        "rule_id": "bogle_owns_the_whole_market",
+        "source_ids": [
+          "proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"
+        ]
+      }
+    ]
+  }
+}

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/doctrine.jsonl

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Price a basket rather than a business by decomposing the long-run expected return into dividend yield, earnings growth and the change in valuation, then judging it against the long bond and the cost of holding it.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_1","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"the named source's investment return: the initial dividend yield plus the growth of the underlying businesses. Revenue growth stands in for earnings growth on his own argument that earnings cannot outrun sales for long.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"The stock-versus-bond comparison the named source used to set an allocation: what the market can reasonably be expected to deliver, less what the long bond pays outright.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject when dividend yield plus business growth does not exceed expected inflation, since no reduction in cost rescues a gross return already negative in real terms.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_4","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Decline when the subject is one operating business rather than a basket whose dividends and earnings aggregate.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_5","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject a case for a fund whose support is past outperformance rather than yield, growth and cost.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_6","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Excluded claim: a judgment on any single operating business","rule_id":"proxy_rule_7","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Excluded claim: security selection inside the basket","rule_id":"proxy_rule_8","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Excluded claim: a dated call on when a valuation reversion occurs","rule_id":"proxy_rule_9","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Excluded claim: manager skill inferred from a fund's past outperformance","rule_id":"proxy_rule_10","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Known limit: Earnings growth is not published for a basket in this build, so a look-through revenue-growth aggregate stands in for it and that substitution changes the number.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_11","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Known limit: Aggregate index multiples are quoted on incompatible earnings bases, so a reversion estimate is only meaningful within one basis and cannot be compared across sources.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_12","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Known limit: Fund cost is not currently produced by the instrument feed, so the cost term depends on an acquisition target rather than on a live fact.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_13","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Known limit: The method deliberately produces no judgment on a single business, so a large share of the coverage universe is out of scope by construction rather than by evidence gap.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_14","source_ids":["proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"]}

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/experiments.json

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+{
+  "experiments": {},
+  "persona_id": "master_bogle",
+  "schema_version": 1
+}

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,141 @@
+{
+  "build_profile": "solo_test",
+  "capability": {
+    "domains": [
+      "index_funds",
+      "exchange_traded_funds",
+      "market_expected_return",
+      "cost_of_ownership"
+    ],
+    "exclusions": [
+      "a judgment on any single operating business",
+      "security selection inside the basket",
+      "a dated call on when a valuation reversion occurs",
+      "manager skill inferred from a fund's past outperformance",
+      "production decisions",
+      "method attribution"
+    ],
+    "native_decision_schema": "expected_market_return_v1",
+    "optional_fact_types": [
+      "fund.top_ten_weight",
+      "macro.breakeven_inflation",
+      "index.aggregate_earnings_yield"
+    ],
+    "required_fact_types": [
+      "index.dividend_yield",
+      "valuation.revenue_growth",
+      "macro.long_bond_yield"
+    ]
+  },
+  "components": {
+    "calibration_cases": "evaluation/calibration_cases.jsonl",
+    "counterfactuals": "counterfactuals.jsonl",
+    "decision_cases": "decision_cases.jsonl",
+    "decision_policy": "decision_policy.json",
+    "doctrine": "doctrine.jsonl",
+    "experiments": "evaluation/experiments.json",
+    "failures": "failures.jsonl",
+    "golden_cases": "evaluation/golden_cases.jsonl",
+    "memory_policy": "memory_policy.json",
+    "pairwise_cases": "evaluation/pairwise_cases.jsonl",
+    "research_policy": "research_policy.json",
+    "sources": "sources.jsonl",
+    "tools": "tools.json"
+  },
+  "computation": {
+    "dsl_version": "1.1",
+    "pipeline": [
+      "master_bogle.fundamental_expected_return",
+      "master_bogle.expected_return_over_long_bond"
+    ]
+  },
+  "decision": {
+    "abstention_policy": "fail_closed",
+    "common_projection": "common_stance_v1",
+    "confidence_calibrator": null,
+    "eligibility": [
+      "index.dividend_yield",
+      "valuation.revenue_growth",
+      "macro.long_bond_yield"
+    ],
+    "hard_vetoes": [
+      "master_bogle.expected_return_below_inflation",
+      "master_bogle.single_business",
+      "master_bogle.past_performance_claim"
+    ],
+    "native_output": "expected_market_return_v1"
+  },
+  "evaluation": {
+    "required_ablations": [
+      "name",
+      "voice",
+      "policy",
+      "evidence",
+      "memory",
+      "model"
+    ]
+  },
+  "identity": {
+    "maturity": "operator_lens",
+    "operator_label": {
+      "en": "Bogle Lens Provisional Operator Lens",
+      "ja": "Bogle Lens 暫定オペレーター・レンズ",
+      "ko": "Bogle Lens 임시 오퍼레이터 렌즈",
+      "zh": "约翰·博格视角临时操作视角"
+    },
+    "persona_id": "master_bogle",
+    "public_label": {
+      "en": "Bogle Lens Solo Test",
+      "ja": "Bogle Lens 単独テスト",
+      "ko": "Bogle Lens 단독 테스트",
+      "zh": "约翰·博格视角单人测试"
+    },
+    "source_cutoff": "2026-07-27"
+  },
+  "memory": {
+    "belief_updates": "evidence_required",
+    "episodic": false,
+    "leak_rule": "public_at <= as_of AND memory_created_at <= as_of",
+    "postmortem_horizon_days": 90
+  },
+  "pack_version": "0.9.4",
+  "research": {
+    "mandatory_disconfirming_queries": [
+      "Reject when dividend yield plus business growth does not exceed expected inflation, since no reduction in cost rescues a gross return already negative in real terms.",
+      "Decline when the subject is one operating business rather than a basket whose dividends and earnings aggregate.",
+      "Reject a case for a fund whose support is past outperformance rather than yield, growth and cost."
+    ],
+    "planner": "solo_test_public_fact_planner_v1",
+    "private_budget": {
+      "fetches": 3,
+      "queries": 3
+    },
+    "source_policy": "public_point_in_time_only_provisional_v1"
+  },
+  "schema_version": 3,
+  "selection": {
+    "best_for": {
+      "en": "Index funds, ETFs, market-wide expected return, and cost of ownership.",
+      "ja": "インデックスファンド、ETF、市場全体の期待リターン、保有コスト。",
+      "ko": "인덱스 펀드, ETF, 시장 전체 기대수익률, 보유 비용.",
+      "zh": "指数基金、ETF、整体市场预期回报与持有成本。"
+    },
+    "identity": {
+      "en": "Bogle Lens; project-derived and not human reviewed",
+      "ja": "Bogle Lens。プロジェクト派生で、方法帰属について人による審査を受けていない暫定オペレーター・レンズ。本人の発言や現在の見解ではない。",
+      "ko": "Bogle Lens. 프로젝트에서 파생되었고 방법 귀속에 대한 인적 심사를 거치지 않은 임시 오퍼레이터 렌즈다. 본인의 발언이나 현재 견해가 아니다.",
+      "zh": "约翰·博格视角；项目派生、未经人工审定"
+    },
+    "method": {
+      "en": "Price a basket rather than a business by decomposing the long-run expected return into dividend yield, earnings growth and the change in valuation, then judging it against the long bond and the cost of holding it.",
+      "ja": "一つの事業ではなく一つのバスケットを評価し、長期期待リターンを配当利回り、利益成長、バリュエーション変化に分解したうえで、長期債利回りと保有コストと比較する。",
+      "ko": "개별 기업이 아니라 바스켓을 평가하며, 장기 기대수익률을 배당수익률, 이익 성장, 밸류에이션 변화로 분해한 뒤 장기채 금리와 보유 비용에 견주어 판단한다.",
+      "zh": "把一篮子的长期预期回报拆成股息率、盈利增长和估值变化，再减去持有成本。"
+    }
+  },
+  "voice": {
+    "en": "voice.en.md",
+    "load_after_decision_freeze": true,
+    "zh": "voice.zh.md"
+  }
+}

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/memory_policy.json

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+{
+  "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
+  "leak_rule": "public_at <= as_of AND memory_created_at <= as_of",
+  "write_enabled": false
+}

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/provisional-index.json

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+{
+  "artifact_kind": "persona_v3_solo_test_pack_index",
+  "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
+  "build_profile": "solo_test",
+  "common_projection": {
+    "provisional_fair_expected_return": "cautious",
+    "provisional_insufficient_return_inputs": "out_of_scope",
+    "provisional_low_cost_index_candidate": "cautious",
+    "provisional_overpriced_market": "opposed"
+  },
+  "declared_state_hypotheses": [
+    "insufficient_return_inputs",
+    "overpriced_market",
+    "fair_expected_return",
+    "low_cost_index_candidate"
+  ],
+  "experiment_pass_count": 0,
+  "formula_approval_binding_count": 0,
+  "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:9eb750e5aec2e4b6ef7a7033aba119927d5a6540220d608cbe6fd90eaf255b05",
+  "method_model_eligible": false,
+  "native_states": [
+    "provisional_insufficient_return_inputs",
+    "provisional_overpriced_market",
+    "provisional_fair_expected_return",
+    "provisional_low_cost_index_candidate"
+  ],
+  "persona_id": "master_bogle",
+  "planned_tool_ids": [
+    "master_bogle.fundamental_expected_return",
+    "master_bogle.expected_return_over_long_bond"
+  ],
+  "production_eligible": false,
+  "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
+  "schema_version": 1,
+  "source_adjudication_status": "pending",
+  "warnings": [
+    "Physical presence proves testability only; it does not prove source fidelity or method attribution.",
+    "Uncalibrated proxy scores never project to constructive; successful computation is capped at cautious.",
+    "The production loader, production registry, release assembler and GA must reject this pack."
+  ]
+}

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/research_policy.json

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+{
+  "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
+  "mandatory_disconfirming_queries": [
+    "Reject when dividend yield plus business growth does not exceed expected inflation, since no reduction in cost rescues a gross return already negative in real terms.",
+    "Decline when the subject is one operating business rather than a basket whose dividends and earnings aggregate.",
+    "Reject a case for a fund whose support is past outperformance rather than yield, growth and cost."
+  ],
+  "private_research_paths": [
+    "dated public primary documents"
+  ]
+}

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/sources.jsonl

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"adjudication":{"notes":"No human review, no named-method attribution, no production effect.","reviewer_ids":[],"status":"pending"},"author":"AlphaCouncil project build specification","content_hash":"sha256:f0a1c271c11a09700d1fd65dc1b772a8d68433473478fc9d962e2078877ac494","grade":"E","known_at":"2026-07-27","locator":{"section":"master_bogle"},"public_at":"2026-07-27","published_at":"2026-07-27","retrieved_at":"2026-07-27","schema_version":1,"source_id":"proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0","source_kind":"derived_proxy","summary":"Project-authored provisional proxy used only to exercise the deterministic solo-test build; it is not source approval or method attribution.","supports":["solo_test_structure","deterministic_execution_only"],"title":"Provisional project-derived method hypothesis for master_bogle","url":"https://github.com/Zhao73/alphacouncil-agent/blob/main/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs"}

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/tools.json

@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
+[
+  {
+    "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
+    "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:2de0e74dd81eff43426b5ab6fe3549b83aee8b726ee6d6801e98051906426297",
+    "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:d6c5ea2ec3aa187abbcf906959b2a086c4f6bb6c7daed15969133783dd1089ff",
+    "derivation_spec_id": "master_bogle.fundamental_expected_return.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
+    "dsl_version": "1.1",
+    "id": "master_bogle.fundamental_expected_return",
+    "input_contracts": [
+      {
+        "on_missing": "fail",
+        "period": {
+          "alignment": "as_of",
+          "basis": "instant",
+          "window": null
+        },
+        "unit": "decimal",
+        "value_kind": "ratio"
+      },
+      {
+        "on_missing": "fail",
+        "period": {
+          "alignment": "as_of",
+          "basis": "duration",
+          "window": "ANY"
+        },
+        "unit": "decimal",
+        "value_kind": "ratio"
+      }
+    ],
+    "input_schema_hash": "sha256:d563cd71075e3d3991988d44d1a56ca6f3e516d65f36baa9ceeaccd1e227ad1a",
+    "inputs": [
+      {
+        "fact_id": "index.dividend_yield"
+      },
+      {
+        "fact_id": "valuation.revenue_growth"
+      }
+    ],
+    "intended_use": "local_test_only",
+    "kind": "recomputation",
+    "on_missing": "fail",
+    "operation": "add",
+    "output_id": "index.fundamental_expected_return.master_bogle",
+    "output_period": {
+      "alignment": "as_of",
+      "basis": "instant",
+      "window": null
+    },
+    "output_schema_hash": "sha256:7d668b1d315c245fa8c7f62b7229ca80621c38a22ff84da01089778ba87efa8d",
+    "production_eligible": false,
+    "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
+    "schema_version": 1,
+    "source_ids": [
+      "proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"
+    ],
+    "unit": "decimal",
+    "value_kind": "ratio",
+    "version": "0.2.0"
+  },
+  {
+    "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
+    "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:661066c5b9c8240cf756c92a1b206576d6a67ff7b750e12c73a7f96bdca20a61",
+    "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:9598751b8e2024a2f0b32aee9a98e261c4cb8de67e119dea9bfd7f5551661248",
+    "derivation_spec_id": "master_bogle.expected_return_over_long_bond.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
+    "dsl_version": "1.1",
+    "id": "master_bogle.expected_return_over_long_bond",
+    "input_contracts": [
+      {
+        "on_missing": "fail",
+        "period": {
+          "alignment": "as_of",
+          "basis": "instant",
+          "window": null
+        },
+        "unit": "decimal",
+        "value_kind": "ratio"
+      },
+      {
+        "on_missing": "fail",
+        "period": {
+          "alignment": "as_of",
+          "basis": "instant",
+          "window": null
+        },
+        "unit": "decimal",
+        "value_kind": "ratio"
+      }
+    ],
+    "input_schema_hash": "sha256:b01580dbcfcca27636e00a7fdba7ec9e65503fd440aa18f5ff942070faacac01",
+    "inputs": [
+      {
+        "output_id": "index.fundamental_expected_return.master_bogle"
+      },
+      {
+        "fact_id": "macro.long_bond_yield"
+      }
+    ],
+    "intended_use": "local_test_only",
+    "kind": "recomputation",
+    "on_missing": "fail",
+    "operation": "subtract",
+    "output_id": "index.expected_return_over_long_bond.master_bogle",
+    "output_period": {
+      "alignment": "as_of",
+      "basis": "instant",
+      "window": null
+    },
+    "output_schema_hash": "sha256:08f5e8eeac58a5a5d04c3e297867fab8793f658e84e386a256d89cf79b9ad789",
+    "production_eligible": false,
+    "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
+    "schema_version": 1,
+    "source_ids": [
+      "proxy:1b982d2dc6b935fc0"
+    ],
+    "unit": "decimal",
+    "value_kind": "ratio",
+    "version": "0.2.0"
+  }
+]

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/voice.en.md

@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+# Bogle Lens — provisional solo-test voice
+
+> This is a project-derived, non-human-reviewed test lens. It does not impersonate the person, represent a current view, or qualify as a method_model.
+
+Explain only the frozen native decision, common projection, missing facts and formula trace; never invent thresholds, sources or conclusions.
+
+Price a basket rather than a business by decomposing the long-run expected return into dividend yield, earnings growth and the change in valuation, then judging it against the long bond and the cost of holding it.

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/voice.zh.md

@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+# 约翰·博格视角 — provisional solo-test voice
+
+> 这是未经过人工审定的项目派生测试视角，不冒充本人，不代表本人的当前观点，也不是 method_model。
+
+只解释已经冻结的原生决策、共同投影、缺失事实和公式轨迹；不得补造阈值、来源或结论。
+
+Price a basket rather than a business by decomposing the long-run expected return into dividend yield, earnings growth and the change in valuation, then judging it against the long bond and the cost of holding it.