aios-core 2.1.0

package/.aios-core/development/tasks/calculate-roi.md

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+# Calculate ROI and Cost Savings
+
+> Task ID: brad-calculate-roi
+> Agent: Brad (Design System Architect)
+> Version: 1.0.0
+
+## Execution Modes
+
+**Choose your execution mode:**
+
+### 1. YOLO Mode - Fast, Autonomous (0-1 prompts)
+- Autonomous decision making with logging
+- Minimal user interaction
+- **Best for:** Simple, deterministic tasks
+
+### 2. Interactive Mode - Balanced, Educational (5-10 prompts) **[DEFAULT]**
+- Explicit decision checkpoints
+- Educational explanations
+- **Best for:** Learning, complex decisions
+
+### 3. Pre-Flight Planning - Comprehensive Upfront Planning
+- Task analysis phase (identify all ambiguities)
+- Zero ambiguity execution
+- **Best for:** Ambiguous requirements, critical work
+
+**Parameter:** `mode` (optional, default: `interactive`)
+
+---
+
+## Task Definition (AIOS Task Format V1.0)
+
+```yaml
+task: calculateRoi()
+responsável: Morgan (Strategist)
+responsavel_type: Agente
+atomic_layer: Strategy
+
+**Entrada:**
+- campo: task
+  tipo: string
+  origem: User Input
+  obrigatório: true
+  validação: Must be registered task
+
+- campo: parameters
+  tipo: object
+  origem: User Input
+  obrigatório: false
+  validação: Valid task parameters
+
+- campo: mode
+  tipo: string
+  origem: User Input
+  obrigatório: false
+  validação: yolo|interactive|pre-flight
+
+**Saída:**
+- campo: execution_result
+  tipo: object
+  destino: Memory
+  persistido: false
+
+- campo: logs
+  tipo: array
+  destino: File (.ai/logs/*)
+  persistido: true
+
+- campo: state
+  tipo: object
+  destino: State management
+  persistido: true
+```
+
+---
+
+## Pre-Conditions
+
+**Purpose:** Validate prerequisites BEFORE task execution (blocking)
+
+**Checklist:**
+
+```yaml
+pre-conditions:
+  - [ ] Task is registered; required parameters provided; dependencies met
+    tipo: pre-condition
+    blocker: true
+    validação: |
+      Check task is registered; required parameters provided; dependencies met
+    error_message: "Pre-condition failed: Task is registered; required parameters provided; dependencies met"
+```
+
+---
+
+## Post-Conditions
+
+**Purpose:** Validate execution success AFTER task completes
+
+**Checklist:**
+
+```yaml
+post-conditions:
+  - [ ] Task completed; exit code 0; expected outputs created
+    tipo: post-condition
+    blocker: true
+    validação: |
+      Verify task completed; exit code 0; expected outputs created
+    error_message: "Post-condition failed: Task completed; exit code 0; expected outputs created"
+```
+
+---
+
+## Acceptance Criteria
+
+**Purpose:** Definitive pass/fail criteria for task completion
+
+**Checklist:**
+
+```yaml
+acceptance-criteria:
+  - [ ] Task completed as expected; side effects documented
+    tipo: acceptance-criterion
+    blocker: true
+    validação: |
+      Assert task completed as expected; side effects documented
+    error_message: "Acceptance criterion not met: Task completed as expected; side effects documented"
+```
+
+---
+
+## Tools
+
+**External/shared resources used by this task:**
+
+- **Tool:** task-runner
+  - **Purpose:** Task execution and orchestration
+  - **Source:** .aios-core/core/task-runner.js
+
+- **Tool:** logger
+  - **Purpose:** Execution logging and error tracking
+  - **Source:** .aios-core/utils/logger.js
+
+---
+
+## Scripts
+
+**Agent-specific code for this task:**
+
+- **Script:** execute-task.js
+  - **Purpose:** Generic task execution wrapper
+  - **Language:** JavaScript
+  - **Location:** .aios-core/scripts/execute-task.js
+
+---
+
+## Error Handling
+
+**Strategy:** fallback
+
+**Common Errors:**
+
+1. **Error:** Task Not Found
+   - **Cause:** Specified task not registered in system
+   - **Resolution:** Verify task name and registration
+   - **Recovery:** List available tasks, suggest similar
+
+2. **Error:** Invalid Parameters
+   - **Cause:** Task parameters do not match expected schema
+   - **Resolution:** Validate parameters against task definition
+   - **Recovery:** Provide parameter template, reject execution
+
+3. **Error:** Execution Timeout
+   - **Cause:** Task exceeds maximum execution time
+   - **Resolution:** Optimize task or increase timeout
+   - **Recovery:** Kill task, cleanup resources, log state
+
+---
+
+## Performance
+
+**Expected Metrics:**
+
+```yaml
+duration_expected: 5-20 min (estimated)
+cost_estimated: $0.003-0.015
+token_usage: ~2,000-8,000 tokens
+```
+
+**Optimization Notes:**
+- Iterative analysis with depth limits; cache intermediate results; batch similar operations
+
+---
+
+## Metadata
+
+```yaml
+story: N/A
+version: 1.0.0
+dependencies:
+  - N/A
+tags:
+  - automation
+  - workflow
+updated_at: 2025-11-17
+```
+
+---
+
+
+## Description
+
+Calculate real cost savings from pattern consolidation with hard numbers. Estimates monthly/annual maintenance costs before and after, projects ROI timeline, shows when investment breaks even.
+
+## Prerequisites
+
+- Consolidation completed (*consolidate command run successfully)
+- .state.yaml contains pattern reduction metrics
+- Optional: Team salary data for accurate calculations
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Interactive Elicitation
+
+This task uses interactive elicitation to gather cost parameters.
+
+1. **Gather Team Context**
+   - Team size (number of developers)
+   - Average developer hourly rate (default: $150/hr)
+   - Monthly hours spent on UI maintenance (estimate if unknown)
+   - Implementation cost estimate
+
+2. **Review Pattern Metrics**
+   - Show consolidation metrics (patterns before/after)
+   - Confirm reduction percentages
+   - Identify highest-impact reductions
+
+3. **Configure Calculation**
+   - Ask for conservative vs aggressive estimates
+   - Include or exclude training costs
+   - Set ROI calculation period (1 year default)
+
+### Steps
+
+1. **Load Consolidation Metrics**
+   - Read .state.yaml for pattern reduction data
+   - Extract before/after counts for all pattern types
+   - Calculate reduction percentages
+   - Validation: Consolidation data exists
+
+2. **Calculate Maintenance Cost (Before)**
+   - Formula: patterns × hours_per_pattern_monthly × hourly_rate × 12
+   - Default: 2 hours/month per pattern for maintenance
+   - Include debugging, updates, consistency fixes
+   - Validation: Reasonable cost estimate generated
+
+3. **Calculate Maintenance Cost (After)**
+   - Same formula with consolidated pattern count
+   - Factor in design system overhead (small)
+   - Validation: Post-consolidation cost calculated
+
+4. **Calculate Monthly and Annual Savings**
+   - Monthly savings = cost_before - cost_after
+   - Annual savings = monthly_savings × 12
+   - Validation: Positive savings or explain why not
+
+5. **Estimate Implementation Cost**
+   - Developer time to create design system
+   - Migration effort (from migration strategy)
+   - Training time
+   - Default: $10,000-15,000 for medium teams
+   - Validation: Implementation cost estimated
+
+6. **Calculate ROI Metrics**
+   - ROI ratio = annual_savings / implementation_cost
+   - Breakeven point = implementation_cost / monthly_savings (in months)
+   - 3-year projection = (annual_savings × 3) - implementation_cost
+   - Validation: ROI calculations complete
+
+7. **Calculate Velocity Impact**
+   - Estimate time saved per feature (fewer component decisions)
+   - Project velocity multiplier (3-6x typical)
+   - Convert to dollar value (time = money)
+   - Validation: Velocity impact quantified
+
+8. **Generate ROI Report**
+   - Create roi-analysis.md with executive summary
+   - Include detailed calculations with formulas
+   - Generate charts (text-based or recommend tools)
+   - Show sensitivity analysis (best/worst case)
+   - Validation: Comprehensive ROI document created
+
+9. **Create Stakeholder Summary**
+   - One-page executive summary
+   - Key numbers only (investment, savings, breakeven)
+   - Visual comparison (before/after costs)
+   - Validation: Stakeholder-ready summary
+
+10. **Update State File**
+    - Add ROI section to .state.yaml
+    - Record all cost calculations
+    - Update phase to "roi_calculated"
+    - Validation: State updated with financial data
+
+## Output
+
+- **roi-analysis.md**: Detailed ROI analysis with calculations
+- **executive-summary.md**: One-page stakeholder summary
+- **cost-breakdown.yaml**: Structured cost data
+- **.state.yaml**: Updated with ROI metrics
+
+### Output Format
+
+```yaml
+# roi section in .state.yaml
+roi:
+  calculated_at: "2025-10-27T14:00:00Z"
+
+  before:
+    patterns: 176
+    monthly_cost: $38,100
+    annual_cost: $457,200
+    hours_per_month: 352
+
+  after:
+    patterns: 32
+    monthly_cost: $6,900
+    annual_cost: $82,800
+    hours_per_month: 64
+
+  savings:
+    monthly: $31,200
+    annual: $374,400
+    hours_saved_monthly: 288
+
+  implementation:
+    estimated_cost: $12,000
+    developer_weeks: 4
+
+  roi_metrics:
+    ratio: 31.2
+    breakeven_months: 0.38
+    year_1_net: $362,400
+    year_3_cumulative: $1,111,200
+
+  velocity_impact:
+    multiplier: "4-6x"
+    time_savings: "70% reduction in UI decisions"
+```
+
+## Success Criteria
+
+- [ ] Realistic cost estimates based on team context
+- [ ] Both pre and post-consolidation costs calculated
+- [ ] ROI ratio shows positive return (>2x minimum)
+- [ ] Breakeven point calculated (typically <1 year)
+- [ ] Velocity impact quantified
+- [ ] Executive summary is stakeholder-ready
+- [ ] All calculations show formulas used
+
+## Error Handling
+
+- **No consolidation data**: Exit with message to run *consolidate first
+- **Unrealistic costs**: Warn user, suggest reviewing inputs
+- **Negative ROI**: Explain why, suggest higher-impact consolidation
+- **Missing team data**: Use industry defaults, flag estimates as rough
+
+## Security Considerations
+
+- Salary data is sensitive - only used for calculations, not logged
+- Cost reports stored securely
+- No external data transmission
+- User can review before sharing with stakeholders
+
+## Examples
+
+### Example 1: ROI Calculation
+
+```bash
+*calculate-roi
+```
+
+Output:
+```
+💰 Brad: Calculating ROI from pattern consolidation...
+
+Team Context:
+  - Developers: 8
+  - Hourly rate: $150/hr
+  - Patterns maintained: 176 → 32
+
+📊 COST ANALYSIS:
+
+BEFORE consolidation:
+  176 patterns × 2 hrs/month × $150/hr = $52,800/month
+  Annual cost: $633,600
+
+AFTER consolidation:
+  32 patterns × 2 hrs/month × $150/hr = $9,600/month
+  Annual cost: $115,200
+
+💵 SAVINGS:
+  Monthly: $43,200
+  Annual: $518,400
+  3-year total: $1,555,200
+
+🎯 ROI METRICS:
+  Implementation cost: $15,000
+  ROI ratio: 34.6x
+  Breakeven: 0.35 months (10 days!)
+  Year 1 net profit: $503,400
+
+⚡ VELOCITY IMPACT:
+  Estimated 5x faster feature development
+  288 hours/month saved = 1.8 FTE equivalent
+
+✅ Report saved: outputs/design-system/my-app/roi/roi-analysis.md
+✅ Executive summary: outputs/design-system/my-app/roi/executive-summary.md
+
+Brad says: Numbers don't lie. Show this to your boss.
+```
+
+### Example 2: Executive Summary
+
+```markdown
+# Design System ROI - Executive Summary
+
+## Investment
+**$15,000** (4 developer-weeks)
+
+## Return
+**$518,400/year** savings
+
+## ROI
+**34.6x return** on investment
+
+## Breakeven
+**10 days**
+
+## Impact
+- 81.8% pattern reduction (176 → 32)
+- 5x velocity improvement
+- 1.8 FTE equivalent time savings
+
+**Recommendation**: Immediate approval. Payback in under 2 weeks.
+```
+
+## Notes
+
+- Default 2 hours/month per pattern for maintenance (conservative)
+- Includes: debugging, updates, consistency fixes, code reviews
+- Velocity multiplier (3-6x) based on industry research
+- Implementation cost varies by team size and existing tech debt
+- ROI improves over time as system matures
+- Brad's estimates are conservative (actual savings often higher)
+- Use this report to justify design system to stakeholders
+- Recalculate ROI after Phase 2 migration to validate projections