aigroup-workflow 1.0.0 → 1.1.0

package/skills/jarvis/engineering-team/c-level-advisor/executive-mentor/skills/stress-test/SKILL.md

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----
-name: "stress-test"
-description: "/em -stress-test — Business Assumption Stress Testing"
----
-
-# /em:stress-test — Business Assumption Stress Testing
-
-**Command:** `/em:stress-test <assumption>`
-
-Take any business assumption and break it before the market does. Revenue projections. Market size. Competitive moat. Hiring velocity. Customer retention.
-
----
-
-## Why Most Assumptions Are Wrong
-
-Founders are optimists by nature. That's a feature — you need optimism to start something from nothing. But it becomes a liability when assumptions in business models get inflated by the same optimism that got you started.
-
-**The most dangerous assumptions are the ones everyone agrees on.**
-
-When the whole team believes the $50M market is real, when every investor call goes well so you assume the round will close, when your model shows $2M ARR by December and nobody questions it — that's when you're most exposed.
-
-Stress testing isn't pessimism. It's calibration.
-
----
-
-## The Stress-Test Methodology
-
-### Step 1: Isolate the Assumption
-
-State it explicitly. Not "our market is large" but "the total addressable market for B2B spend management software in German SMEs is €2.3B."
-
-The more specific the assumption, the more testable it is. Vague assumptions are unfalsifiable — and therefore useless.
-
-**Common assumption types:**
-- **Market size** — TAM, SAM, SOM; growth rate; customer segments
-- **Customer behavior** — willingness to pay, churn, expansion, referrals
-- **Revenue model** — conversion rates, deal size, sales cycle, CAC
-- **Competitive position** — moat durability, competitor response speed, switching cost
-- **Execution** — team velocity, hire timeline, product timeline, operational scaling
-- **Macro** — regulatory environment, economic conditions, technology availability
-
-### Step 2: Find the Counter-Evidence
-
-For every assumption, actively search for evidence that it's wrong.
-
-Ask:
-- Who has tried this and failed?
-- What data contradicts this assumption?
-- What does the bear case look like?
-- If a smart skeptic was looking at this, what would they point to?
-- What's the base rate for assumptions like this?
-
-**Sources of counter-evidence:**
-- Comparable companies that failed in adjacent markets
-- Customer churn data from similar businesses
-- Historical accuracy of similar forecasts
-- Industry reports with conflicting data
-- What competitors who tried this found
-
-The goal isn't to find a reason to stop — it's to surface what you don't know.
-
-### Step 3: Model the Downside
-
-Most plans model the base case and the upside. Stress testing means modeling the downside explicitly.
-
-**For quantitative assumptions (revenue, growth, conversion):**
-
-| Scenario | Assumption Value | Probability | Impact |
-|----------|-----------------|-------------|--------|
-| Base case | [Original value] | ? | |
-| Bear case | -30% | ? | |
-| Stress case | -50% | ? | |
-| Catastrophic | -80% | ? | |
-
-Key question at each level: **Does the business survive? Does the plan make sense?**
-
-**For qualitative assumptions (moat, product-market fit, team capability):**
-
-- What's the earliest signal this assumption is wrong?
-- How long would it take you to notice?
-- What happens between when it breaks and when you detect it?
-
-### Step 4: Calculate Sensitivity
-
-Some assumptions matter more than others. Sensitivity analysis answers: **if this one assumption changes, how much does the outcome change?**
-
-Example: 
-- If CAC doubles, how does that change runway?
-- If churn goes from 5% to 10%, how does that change NRR in 24 months?
-- If the deal cycle is 6 months instead of 3, how does that affect Q3 revenue?
-
-High sensitivity = the assumption is a key lever. Wrong = big problem.
-
-### Step 5: Propose the Hedge
-
-For every high-risk assumption, there should be a hedge:
-
-- **Validation hedge** — test it before betting on it (pilot, customer conversation, small experiment)
-- **Contingency hedge** — if it's wrong, what's plan B?
-- **Early warning hedge** — what's the leading indicator that would tell you it's breaking before it's too late to act?
-
----
-
-## Stress Test Patterns by Assumption Type
-
-### Revenue Projections
-
-**Common failures:**
-- Bottom-up model assumes 100% of pipeline converts
-- Doesn't account for deal slippage, churn, seasonality
-- New channel assumed to work before tested at scale
-
-**Stress questions:**
-- What's your actual historical win rate on pipeline?
-- If your top 3 deals slip to next quarter, what happens to the number?
-- What's the model look like if your new sales rep takes 4 months to ramp, not 2?
-- If expansion revenue doesn't materialize, what's the growth rate?
-
-**Test:** Build the revenue model from historical win rates, not hoped-for ones.
-
-### Market Size
-
-**Common failures:**
-- TAM calculated top-down from industry reports without bottoms-up validation
-- Conflating total market with serviceable market
-- Assuming 100% of SAM is reachable
-
-**Stress questions:**
-- How many companies in your ICP actually exist and can you name them?
-- What's your serviceable obtainable market in year 1-3?
-- What percentage of your ICP is currently spending on any solution to this problem?
-- What does "winning" look like and what market share does that require?
-
-**Test:** Build a list of target accounts. Count them. Multiply by ACV. That's your SAM.
-
-### Competitive Moat
-
-**Common failures:**
-- Moat is technology advantage that can be built in 6 months
-- Network effects that haven't yet materialized
-- Data advantage that requires scale you don't have
-
-**Stress questions:**
-- If a well-funded competitor copied your best feature in 90 days, what do customers do?
-- What's your retention rate among customers who have tried alternatives?
-- Is the moat real today or theoretical at scale?
-- What would it cost a competitor to reach feature parity?
-
-**Test:** Ask churned customers why they left and whether a competitor could have kept them.
-
-### Hiring Plan
-
-**Common failures:**
-- Time-to-hire assumes standard recruiting cycle, not current market
-- Ramp time not modeled (3-6 months before full productivity)
-- Key hire dependency: plan only works if specific person is hired
-
-**Stress questions:**
-- What happens if the VP Sales hire takes 5 months, not 2?
-- What does execution look like if you only hire 70% of planned headcount?
-- Which single person, if they left tomorrow, would most damage the plan?
-- Is the plan achievable with current team if hiring freezes?
-
-**Test:** Model the plan with 0 net new hires. What still works?
-
-### Competitive Response
-
-**Common failures:**
-- Assumes incumbents won't respond (they will if you're winning)
-- Underestimates speed of response
-- Doesn't model resource asymmetry
-
-**Stress questions:**
-- If the market leader copies your product in 6 months, how does pricing change?
-- What's your response if a competitor raises $30M to attack your space?
-- Which of your customers have vendor relationships with your competitors?
-
----
-
-## The Stress Test Output
-
-```
-ASSUMPTION: [Exact statement]
-SOURCE: [Where this came from — model, investor pitch, team gut feel]
-
-COUNTER-EVIDENCE
-• [Specific evidence that challenges this assumption]
-• [Comparable failure case]
-• [Data point that contradicts the assumption]
-
-DOWNSIDE MODEL
-• Bear case (-30%): [Impact on plan]
-• Stress case (-50%): [Impact on plan]
-• Catastrophic (-80%): [Impact on plan — does the business survive?]
-
-SENSITIVITY
-This assumption has [HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW] sensitivity.
-A 10% change → [X] change in outcome.
-
-HEDGE
-• Validation: [How to test this before betting on it]
-• Contingency: [Plan B if it's wrong]
-• Early warning: [Leading indicator to watch — and at what threshold to act]
-```

package/skills/jarvis/engineering-team/c-level-advisor/founder-coach/SKILL.md

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----
-name: "founder-coach"
-description: "Personal leadership development for founders and first-time CEOs. Covers founder archetype identification, delegation frameworks, energy management, CEO calendar audits, leadership style evolution, blind spot identification, imposter syndrome, founder mental health, and succession planning. Use when a founder feels like the bottleneck, struggles to delegate, is burning out, transitioning from IC to executive, managing a board, or when user mentions founder mode, CEO growth, leadership development, delegation, burnout, or imposter syndrome."
-license: MIT
-metadata:
-  version: 1.0.0
-  author: Alireza Rezvani
-  category: c-level
-  domain: founder-development
-  updated: 2026-03-05
-  frameworks: leadership-growth, founder-toolkit
----
-
-# Founder Development Coach
-
-Your company can only grow as fast as you do. This skill treats founder development as a strategic priority — not a personal indulgence.
-
-## Keywords
-founder, CEO, founder mode, delegation, burnout, imposter syndrome, leadership growth, energy management, calendar audit, executive team, board management, succession planning, IC to manager, leadership style, founder trap, blind spots, personal OKRs, CEO reflection
-
-## Core Truth
-
-The founder is always the constraint. Not intentionally — it's structural. You built the company. You know everything. Decisions flow through you. This works until it doesn't.
-
-At ~15 people, you hit the first ceiling: you can't be in every meeting and still think. At ~50 people, the second: your style starts creating culture problems. At ~150 people, the third: you need a real executive team or you become the reason the company can't scale.
-
-The earlier you address this, the better.
-
----
-
-## 1. Founder Archetype Identification
-
-Most founders are primarily one archetype. Knowing yours predicts what you'll struggle with.
-
-| Archetype | Strength | Blind spot | What they need |
-|-----------|----------|------------|----------------|
-| **Builder** | Product, engineering, technical depth | Go-to-market, storytelling, people | A seller / GTM partner |
-| **Seller** | Revenue, relationships, vision communication | Operations, follow-through, process | An operator / COO |
-| **Operator** | Execution, process, reliability | Vision, product intuition, risk | A visionary / strategic co-founder |
-| **Visionary** | Strategy, narrative, pattern-recognition | Execution, details, grounding | An integrator / COO |
-
-**Self-assessment questions:**
-- What do you do when you have a free hour?
-- What do you procrastinate on most?
-- What do your co-founders or early team complain you don't do?
-- What's the best feedback you've received about your leadership?
-
-Most founders are Builder or Visionary. Most scaling problems happen because they don't hire their complementary type early enough.
-
----
-
-## 2. Delegation Framework
-
-Founders fail to delegate for four reasons:
-1. "Nobody does it as well as I do" (often true short-term, fatal long-term)
-2. "It takes longer to explain than to do it" (true once; not true the 10th time)
-3. "I lose control if I don't do it myself" (control is an illusion at scale)
-4. "If it fails, it's my fault" (it's your fault if you never let anyone else try)
-
-### The Skill × Will Matrix
-
-| | High Skill | Low Skill |
-|---|-----------|----------|
-| **High Will** | Delegate fully | Coach and develop |
-| **Low Will** | Motivate or reassign | Manage out or redesign role |
-
-**Rules:**
-- High skill + high will → Give the work and get out of the way
-- High will + low skill → Invest in them. They want to grow.
-- High skill + low will → Find out why. Fix the environment or accept the mismatch.
-- Low skill + low will → Don't delegate to them. Address the performance issue.
-
-### The Delegation Ladder
-
-Not all delegation is equal. Build up gradually:
-
-1. "Do exactly what I tell you" — not delegation, instruction
-2. "Research this and report back" — information gathering
-3. "Propose a solution and I'll decide" — thinking delegation
-4. "Decide and tell me what you decided" — decision delegation with review
-5. "Handle it completely — update me if it's outside these parameters" — full delegation
-
-Start at level 2–3. Move people up as trust is established. Most founders never get past level 3 with their team — that's the bottleneck.
-
-### What to delegate first
-
-**Delegate first (high volume, low stakes):**
-- Recurring operational tasks you do the same way every time
-- Information gathering and synthesis
-- Meeting coordination and scheduling
-- Reports and updates you produce regularly
-
-**Delegate next (skill-buildable):**
-- Customer interactions (with clear principles)
-- Hiring screens (after you've trained judgment)
-- Partner relationship management
-- Budget management within parameters
-
-**Delegate last (strategic, irreversible):**
-- Major strategic pivots
-- Executive hires
-- Large financial commitments
-- M&A decisions
-
----
-
-## 3. Energy Management
-
-Founders manage energy, not just time. Time is fixed. Energy is renewable — but only if you manage it.
-
-### The Energy Audit
-
-Map your week by energy, not tasks. See `references/founder-toolkit.md` for the full template.
-
-**Categories:**
-- 🟢 **Energizing:** Activities that leave you sharper after doing them
-- 🟡 **Neutral:** Neither energizing nor draining
-- 🔴 **Draining:** Activities that leave you depleted
-
-**Common founder energy patterns:**
-- **Builders:** Energized by creating, drained by politics and process
-- **Sellers:** Energized by people and wins, drained by detail work and admin
-- **Operators:** Energized by solving, drained by ambiguity and indecision
-- **Visionaries:** Energized by strategy and ideas, drained by execution and repetition
-
-**The rule:** Maximize green. Eliminate or delegate red. Accept yellow as the price of leadership.
-
-### Energy management practices
-
-**Protect deep work time.** 2–4 hours of uninterrupted thinking time, 3–5 days per week. Schedule it. Defend it. This is where strategy happens.
-
-**Batch shallow work.** Email, Slack, administrative tasks — twice a day maximum.
-
-**Single-task during recovery.** If you're depleted, don't try to do your best work. Do tasks that don't require your best.
-
-**Identify your peak window.** Most people have 4–6 peak hours per day. Schedule your hardest work in those windows.
-
----
-
-## 4. CEO Calendar Audit
-
-The calendar is the most honest document in a founder's life. It shows what you actually prioritize, not what you say you prioritize.
-
-### Running the audit
-
-Pull the last 4 weeks of calendar data. Categorize every meeting/block:
-
-| Category | Description | Target % |
-|----------|-------------|----------|
-| Strategy | Thinking, planning, direction-setting | 20–25% |
-| People | 1:1s, coaching, recruiting | 20–25% |
-| External | Customers, investors, partners | 20% |
-| Execution | Direct work, decisions | 15% |
-| Admin | Email, scheduling, overhead | < 15% |
-| Recovery | Exercise, meals, thinking | 10–15% |
-
-**Red flags in the audit:**
-- Admin > 20%: You're a coordinator, not a CEO. Fix your systems.
-- Execution > 30%: You're still an IC. Build the team.
-- People < 10%: Your team is running on empty. They need more of you.
-- No recovery blocks: You're running on adrenaline. It ends badly.
-- Strategy < 10%: You're running the company, not leading it.
-
-### The CEO's primary job at each stage
-
-| Stage | CEO should spend most time on... |
-|-------|--------------------------------|
-| Seed | Product and customers. Directly. |
-| Series A | Hiring the executive team. Recruiting is your job. |
-| Series B | Culture, strategy, and external (investors/partners/customers) |
-| Series C+ | Vision, board, external narrative, executive development |
-
-If you're spending time on things from two stages ago, you haven't made the transition.
-
----
-
-## 5. Leadership Style Evolution
-
-The job changes at every stage. Most founders don't change with it.
-
-**IC → Manager (0 to ~10 people):**
-You need to teach and build trust. People are watching how you treat failure. The skill: give clear context, set expectations, check in frequently.
-
-**Manager → Leader (~10 to ~50 people):**
-You can't manage everyone directly. You need people who manage people. The skill: hire managers you trust, let them manage.
-
-**Leader → Executive (~50 to ~200 people):**
-You're now setting culture and direction, not managing work. The skill: communicate obsessively, decide at the right altitude, develop your leadership team.
-
-**Executive → Institutional CEO (200+):**
-You're a symbol as much as a manager. The skill: build systems that work without you; focus on board, investors, and external narrative.
-
-**The hardest transition:** Manager → Leader. You have to stop doing things yourself and trust people you're still getting to know.
-
----
-
-## 6. Blind Spot Identification
-
-Everyone has them. Founders more than most — because nobody in the early company had the authority or safety to tell you.
-
-### Common founder blind spots
-
-- **Communication:** "I said it once, they should know" — you said it; they didn't hear it or didn't believe it
-- **Decision speed:** Moving so fast that teams can't orient or build on your direction
-- **Context hoarding:** Knowing what's happening without sharing it, then being frustrated that teams make bad decisions
-- **Optimism bias:** Consistently underestimating timelines, cost, and difficulty
-- **Founder exceptionalism:** Rules that apply to everyone don't apply to you
-- **Feedback avoidance:** Creating an environment where no one gives you honest feedback
-
-### How to find your blind spots
-
-1. **360 feedback (anonymous):** Once a year. Ask direct reports, peers, board members. Include "What does [name] do that gets in the way of our success?"
-2. **Exit interview analysis:** What do departing employees consistently say? Find the pattern.
-3. **Failure post-mortems:** What do your worst decisions have in common? What were you assuming that wasn't true?
-4. **The energy audit:** Where do you consistently drain the people around you?
-
----
-
-## 7. Imposter Syndrome Toolkit
-
-It doesn't go away. It evolves. The founder who was scared to pitch to investors is now scared to manage a board. The founder who was scared to hire is now scared to fire.
-
-**The reframe:** Imposter syndrome is proportional to stretch. If you never feel it, you're not growing.
-
-**Practical tools:**
-- **Evidence file:** Document wins, compliments, decisions that worked. Read it when the doubt hits.
-- **Normalize the feeling:** "I feel underprepared for this" ≠ "I am an imposter." Feeling and fact are different.
-- **Do the thing anyway.** Competence comes from doing, not from feeling ready.
-- **Name it:** Saying "I'm feeling imposter syndrome about this investor meeting" to a trusted person removes 50% of its power.
-
----
-
-## 8. Founder Mental Health
-
-Burnout isn't weakness. It's a predictable outcome of high-demand + low-recovery + no control over inputs.
-
-### Burnout signals
-
-Early: Irritability, difficulty sleeping, decisions feel harder than they should, loss of enthusiasm for the mission.
-Mid: Physical symptoms (headaches, illness), cynicism about the company, social withdrawal, all tasks feel equally important (priority paralysis).
-Late: Can't function, decisions have stopped, team notices before you do.
-
-**If you're in late burnout:** Stop performing. Get support. The company needs a functioning founder more than it needs a martyred one.
-
-### Structural prevention
-
-- **Protect recovery time.** Not weekends — protected time during the week where you're not available.
-- **Therapy or coaching.** Not optional for founders. The job is isolating and the stakes are high.
-- **Peer group.** Other founders at similar stages. They're the only people who actually understand the job.
-- **Clear off-ramps.** Know what "enough for today" looks like. Don't let the work be infinite.
-
----
-
-## 9. The Founder Mode Trap
-
-Paul Graham's "Founder Mode" essay made the case that great founders stay deeply involved in operations — skip middle management and go direct. It resonated because it's sometimes true.
-
-**When founder mode helps:**
-- Crisis recovery (company needs direct leadership)
-- Product-market fit search (speed matters more than org health)
-- High-value, irreversible decisions (you should be in the room)
-- Early stages when the team is small
-
-**When founder mode hurts:**
-- When it undermines managers you've hired (they can't lead if you override them)
-- When it's driven by distrust rather than strategy
-- When it prevents the team from developing judgment
-- When you're doing it because you miss doing, not because the company needs you to
-
-**The test:** Are you going deep because the situation requires it, or because you're uncomfortable with the loss of control? The first is leadership. The second is the trap.
-
----
-
-## 10. Succession Planning
-
-Building a company that works without you is not disloyalty — it's the ultimate expression of leadership.
-
-**Succession is not just about exit.** It's about resilience. What happens if you're sick? On sabbatical? Acquired?
-
-**Succession readiness levels:**
-- Level 1: You've documented your key knowledge and processes
-- Level 2: At least one person can cover each of your key functions for 2 weeks
-- Level 3: Your leadership team can run the company for a quarter without you
-- Level 4: You've identified and developed your potential successor
-
-Most founders are at Level 0. Level 2 is a reasonable target. Level 3 is a strategic asset.
-
----
-
-## Key Questions for Founder Development
-
-- "What decisions did you make last week that someone else could have made?"
-- "What are you still doing that you should have delegated 6 months ago?"
-- "When did you last get honest, critical feedback? From whom? What did it say?"
-- "What would need to be true for the company to run for a week without you?"
-- "What's draining your energy that you've accepted as unavoidable?"
-
-## Detailed References
-- `references/leadership-growth.md` — Maxwell levels, situational leadership, founder-to-CEO transition
-- `references/founder-toolkit.md` — Weekly reflection, energy audit, delegation matrix, 1:1 templates