agileflow 3.4.3 → 4.0.0-alpha.1

package/src/core/commands/velocity.md

@@ -1,630 +0,0 @@
----
-description: Track velocity and forecast sprint capacity
-argument-hint: "[PERIOD=week|sprint|month|all] [FORECAST=<EP-ID>] [FORMAT=report|chart|json]"
-model: haiku
-compact_context:
-  priority: medium
-  preserve_rules:
-    - "ACTIVE COMMAND: /agileflow:velocity - Velocity analyst and forecaster (read-only)"
-    - "MUST read docs/09-agents/bus/log.jsonl (parse done status changes with timestamps)"
-    - "MUST read docs/06-stories/**/US-*.md for estimates (frontmatter)"
-    - "MUST calculate over 3+ time periods for reliability"
-    - "MUST warn if sample size <5 stories (unreliable forecast)"
-    - "MUST exclude outliers (>3x average) from velocity calc"
-    - "MUST save velocity history to docs/08-project/velocity/"
-    - "MUST show trend analysis (↗ ↘ →) with % change"
-  state_fields:
-    - current_velocity
-    - trend_pct
-    - period
-    - sample_size
----
-
-# velocity
-
-Track team velocity, calculate trends, and forecast completion dates.
-
----
-
-## STEP 0: Gather Context
-
-```bash
-node .agileflow/scripts/obtain-context.js velocity
-```
-
-This gathers git status, stories/epics, session state, and registers for PreCompact.
-
----
-
-<!-- COMPACT_SUMMARY_START -->
-
-## ⚠️ COMPACT SUMMARY - /agileflow:velocity IS ACTIVE
-
-**CRITICAL**: You are the Velocity Analyst. This command analyzes team productivity trends (read-only).
-
----
-
-### 🚨 RULE #1: ALWAYS Parse bus/log.jsonl for Completions
-
-Extract "done" status changes:
-1. Read docs/09-agents/bus/log.jsonl
-2. Find entries with type="status" and status="done"
-3. Extract timestamps and story IDs
-4. Match to story files for estimates (frontmatter)
-5. Group by time period (week/sprint/month)
-6. Calculate velocity per period
-
-### 🚨 RULE #2: ALWAYS Calculate Over 3+ Time Periods
-
-- Minimum 3 periods for trend reliability
-- Warn if sample size <5 stories (unreliable)
-- Exclude outliers >3x average from calc
-- Show moving average trend (↗ ↘ →)
-
-### 🚨 RULE #3: ALWAYS Show Confidence Levels
-
-Confidence = 100% - (StdDev / Velocity Avg) * 100
-- >80% = High confidence (stable velocity)
-- 60-80% = Medium confidence (some variance)
-- <60% = Low confidence (unreliable, don't forecast)
-
-### 🚨 RULE #4: ALWAYS Save History
-
-Save velocity reports to:
-- docs/08-project/velocity/velocity-YYYYMMDD.md
-- Track trends over time for capacity planning
-
----
-
-## Key Files & Data
-
-**Input Parameters** (all optional):
-```
-PERIOD=week|sprint|month|all    # Time grouping (default: sprint)
-FORECAST=<EPIC_ID>               # Predict epic completion date
-FORMAT=report|chart|json          # Output format (default: report)
-```
-
-**Data Sources** (read-only):
-1. docs/09-agents/bus/log.jsonl - Completion events with timestamps
-2. docs/06-stories/**/US-*.md - Story estimates (frontmatter)
-3. docs/05-epics/*.md - Epic totals
-4. docs/08-project/milestones.md - Milestone targets
-
----
-
-## Key Calculations
-
-**Velocity Formula**:
-```
-Velocity = Total points completed / Number of periods
-Points = story estimate converted to days (1d = 1 point)
-```
-
-**Forecast Formula**:
-```
-Days to complete = (Remaining points / Velocity) * 7
-Completion date = Today + Days to complete
-```
-
-**Trend Analysis**:
-```
-% Change = ((Current velocity - Previous velocity) / Previous velocity) * 100
-Trend: ↗ (positive), ↘ (negative), → (stable)
-```
-
----
-
-## Output Structure
-
-**Velocity Report Includes**:
-- Current velocity (avg points/period)
-- Trend analysis (↗ ↘ → with % change)
-- Historical breakdown (by week/sprint/month)
-- Velocity by owner (individual agent productivity)
-- Forecasts (if requested)
-- Risk analysis (what could slow us down)
-- Capacity recommendations (plan next sprint)
-- Velocity goals (targets to achieve)
-
-**Forecast Details**:
-- Remaining points to complete epic
-- Weeks needed at current velocity
-- Predicted completion date
-- Confidence level (80%/70%/60%)
-- Risk assumptions
-
----
-
-## Anti-Patterns & Correct Usage
-
-❌ **DON'T**:
-- Forecast with <5 stories in sample (unreliable)
-- Ignore outliers (can skew velocity)
-- Forecast without confidence levels
-- Use velocity from <3 time periods
-
-✅ **DO**:
-- Calculate over 3+ time periods
-- Show trend analysis with % changes
-- Warn if sample size too small
-- Exclude outliers >3x average
-- Show confidence levels (High/Medium/Low)
-
----
-
-## Follow-up Integration
-
-After displaying velocity report, suggest:
-- `/agileflow:sprint-plan` - Plan next sprint using velocity
-- `/agileflow:metrics` - See detailed metrics (cycle time, WIP)
-- `/agileflow:board` - See current board state
-- Save velocity report for stakeholder updates
-
----
-
-## REMEMBER AFTER COMPACTION
-
-- Command is read-only (analyzes bus/log.jsonl + story estimates)
-- Parses "done" status changes from bus log
-- Calculates over 3+ time periods (minimum for reliability)
-- Shows trend analysis (↗ ↘ →) with % change
-- Warns if sample size <5 stories (unreliable forecast)
-- Excludes outliers >3x average from velocity
-- Saves velocity history to docs/08-project/velocity/
-- Shows confidence levels (High/Medium/Low)
-
-<!-- COMPACT_SUMMARY_END -->
-
-## Prompt
-
-ROLE: Velocity Analyst & Forecaster
-
-OBJECTIVE
-Calculate team velocity from completed stories, identify trends, and forecast epic/milestone completion dates.
-
-CONTEXT
-
-Live repository state:
-- Current branch: !`git branch --show-current`
-- Commits this week: !`git log --since="7 days ago" --oneline | wc -l`
-- Bus log activity: !`tail -5 docs/09-agents/bus/log.jsonl 2>/dev/null || echo "No bus log found"`
-- Stories completed recently: !`grep -c '"status":"done"' docs/09-agents/status.json 2>/dev/null || echo "0"`
-
-INPUTS (optional)
-- PERIOD=week|sprint|month|all (default: sprint - last 2 weeks)
-- FORECAST=<EPIC_ID or milestone> (predict completion date)
-- FORMAT=report|chart|json (default: report)
-
-DATA SOURCES
-
-1. **Story Completion Data**
-   - docs/09-agents/status.json (current state)
-   - docs/09-agents/bus/log.jsonl (historical status changes)
-   - docs/06-stories/**/US-*.md (story estimates and metadata)
-
-2. **Epic/Milestone Data**
-   - docs/05-epics/*.md (epic definitions)
-   - docs/08-project/milestones.md (milestone targets)
-
-VELOCITY CALCULATION
-
-### Story Points Completed
-Parse bus/log.jsonl for status changes to "done":
-```json
-{"ts":"2025-10-10T10:00:00Z","type":"status","story":"US-0030","status":"done"}
-{"ts":"2025-10-11T14:30:00Z","type":"status","story":"US-0031","status":"done"}
-```
-
-For each story, get estimate from story file frontmatter:
-```yaml
-estimate: 1.5d
-```
-
-Convert to points (1d = 1 point) and sum by time period.
-
-### Velocity Calculation
-```
-Velocity = Total points completed / Number of time periods
-```
-
-Example:
-- Week 1: 8 points
-- Week 2: 10 points
-- Week 3: 7 points
-- **Average velocity**: (8+10+7)/3 = **8.3 points/week**
-
-VELOCITY REPORT
-
-```markdown
-# Velocity Report
-
-**Generated**: 2025-10-17 14:30
-**Period**: Last 4 sprints (8 weeks)
-**Team**: AG-UI, AG-API, AG-CI, AG-DEVOPS
-
----
-
-## 📊 Current Velocity
-
-**Average**: 8.3 points/week
-**Trend**: ↗️ +15% (improving)
-**Last sprint**: 10 points
-**Best sprint**: 12 points (Week of 2025-09-15)
-**Worst sprint**: 5 points (Week of 2025-09-01)
-
----
-
-## 📈 Historical Velocity
-
-```
-Points
- 12 │           ●
- 11 │         ╱
- 10 │   ●   ●     ●
-  9 │  ╱ ╲ ╱
-  8 │ ●   ●
-  7 │               ●
-  6 │              ╱
-  5 │    ●       ●
-  4 │   ╱
-  3 │
-    └────────────────────
-     W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8
-
-Trend line: ─── (moving average)
-Actual: ● ─ ●
-```
-
-**Weekly Breakdown**:
-| Week | Points | Stories | Avg Size | Notes |
-|------|--------|---------|----------|-------|
-| 2025-10-14 | 10 | 6 | 1.7d | ↗️ +25% |
-| 2025-10-07 | 8  | 5 | 1.6d | ↗️ +14% |
-| 2025-09-30 | 7  | 4 | 1.8d | ↘️ -30% |
-| 2025-09-23 | 10 | 7 | 1.4d | ↗️ +100% |
-| 2025-09-16 | 5  | 3 | 1.7d | ↘️ -50% |
-| 2025-09-09 | 10 | 6 | 1.7d | - |
-
-**Insights**:
-- Velocity is trending upward (+15% over 6 weeks)
-- Best performance when story size ≤1.5d
-- Week of 2025-09-23 had highest throughput (7 stories)
-- Consistency improving (std dev: 2.1 → 1.8)
-
----
-
-## 👥 Velocity by Owner
-
-| Owner | Points/Week | Stories/Week | Utilization | Trend |
-|-------|-------------|--------------|-------------|-------|
-| AG-UI | 3.2 | 2.1 | 80% | ↗️ +10% |
-| AG-API | 4.1 | 2.8 | 85% | ↗️ +20% |
-| AG-CI | 0.8 | 0.6 | 40% | → Stable |
-| AG-DEVOPS | 0.2 | 0.2 | 10% | 🆕 New |
-
-**Observations**:
-- AG-API is the team workhorse (4.1 pts/wk)
-- AG-CI underutilized (consider more stories)
-- AG-DEVOPS just started (too early for trends)
-
----
-
-## 🎯 Forecast: Epic Completion
-
-### EP-0010: User Authentication
-- **Stories**: 12 total
-- **Completed**: 8 (66%)
-- **Remaining**: 4 stories, 6 points
-- **At current velocity** (8.3 pts/wk): **< 1 week**
-- **Forecast completion**: **2025-10-24** (7 days)
-- **Confidence**: High (85%)
-
-### EP-0011: Payment Integration
-- **Stories**: 8 total
-- **Completed**: 2 (25%)
-- **Remaining**: 6 stories, 9 points
-- **At current velocity** (8.3 pts/wk): **~1.1 weeks**
-- **Forecast completion**: **2025-10-28** (11 days)
-- **Confidence**: Medium (70%)
-
-### Milestone: Public Beta Launch
-- **Target date**: 2025-11-15
-- **Total remaining**: 15 stories, 24 points
-- **Weeks needed**: 24/8.3 = **2.9 weeks**
-- **Forecast completion**: **2025-11-07** (21 days)
-- **Status**: ✅ **On track** (8 days buffer)
-- **Risk level**: Low
-
----
-
-## ⚠️ Risk Analysis
-
-### Velocity Risks
-1. **AG-API dependency**: 50% of points from one agent
-   - *Mitigation*: Cross-train, pair programming
-2. **Story size variance**: Some 2d stories slow velocity
-   - *Mitigation*: Split stories >1.5d
-3. **Seasonal slowdown**: Historical dip in Week 5
-   - *Mitigation*: Add buffer to forecasts
-
-### Schedule Risks
-- EP-0011 blocking Milestone: Public Beta
-- If velocity drops 20% → Beta delayed to 2025-11-12
-- If AG-API unavailable → 50% velocity loss
-
----
-
-## 📅 Capacity Planning
-
-**Current Capacity**: 8.3 points/week (4 agents)
-
-**Recommendations**:
-1. **This Sprint** (2 weeks):
-   - Plan: 16-18 points (2x velocity)
-   - Buffer: Keep 2-3 ready stories
-   - Focus: Complete EP-0010
-
-2. **Next Sprint**:
-   - Plan: 16-20 points
-   - Priority: EP-0011 (Beta blocker)
-   - Consider: Add stories for AG-CI (underutilized)
-
-3. **Long-term**:
-   - Maintain 8-10 points/week sustained velocity
-   - Reserve 20% for tech debt (/agileflow:tech-debt command)
-   - Keep story sizes ≤1.5d for predictability
-
----
-
-## 🎯 Velocity Goals
-
-**Current**: 8.3 points/week
-**Target**: 10 points/week (by end of quarter)
-**Stretch**: 12 points/week
-
-**Action Items**:
-- [ ] Split 2 large stories (US-0050, US-0051)
-- [ ] Assign 2 more stories to AG-CI
-- [ ] Review blockers (US-0041)
-- [ ] Celebrate hitting 10 pts/wk milestone! 🎉
-
----
-
-## 📊 Export Options
-
-Save this report?
-- `docs/08-project/velocity/velocity-2025-10-17.md`
-- Update velocity dashboard
-- Add to stakeholder update
-```
-
-FORECASTING ALGORITHM
-
-### Simple Linear Forecast
-```
-Days to complete = (Remaining points / Velocity) * 7
-Completion date = Today + Days to complete
-```
-
-### Confidence Calculation
-```
-Confidence = 100% - (Velocity std dev / Velocity avg) * 100
-
-High confidence: >80% (stable velocity)
-Medium: 60-80% (some variance)
-Low: <60% (high variance, unreliable)
-```
-
-### Monte Carlo Simulation (optional, advanced)
-Run 1000 simulations with velocity variance:
-```
-For each simulation:
-  - Sample velocity from normal distribution (mean, std dev)
-  - Calculate completion date
-  - Record result
-
-Forecast:
-  - P50 (median): 50% chance of completing by this date
-  - P80: 80% chance
-  - P90: 90% chance (conservative estimate)
-```
-
-VELOCITY CHART (ASCII Art)
-
-```
-Velocity Trend (8 weeks)
-
-Points/Week
- 12 ┤           ●●●
- 11 ┤         ●
- 10 ┤   ●●  ●
-  9 ┤  ●  ●
-  8 ┤ ●            ← Current (8.3 avg)
-  7 ┤               ●
-  6 ┤              ●
-  5 ┤    ●       ●
-  4 ┤   ●
-  3 ┤
-    └─────────────────────────────────────
-     W1  W2  W3  W4  W5  W6  W7  W8
-
-Legend:
-  ● Actual velocity
-  ─ Trend line (moving average)
-  ↗️ Trend: +15% over period
-```
-
-VELOCITY BY STORY SIZE
-
-```
-Velocity by Story Size
-
-Size    | Count | Avg Days | Success Rate
---------|-------|----------|-------------
-≤0.5d   |   8   |   0.4d   | 100% ✅
-0.5-1d  |  12   |   0.9d   |  92% ✅
-1-1.5d  |  10   |   1.3d   |  80% ⚠️
-1.5-2d  |   6   |   2.1d   |  67% ⚠️
->2d     |   3   |   3.5d   |  33% 🔴
-
-**Insight**: Stories ≤1d complete faster and more reliably.
-**Recommendation**: Split stories >1.5d into smaller increments.
-```
-
-JSON OUTPUT (for tooling)
-
-```json
-{
-  "generated": "2025-10-17T14:30:00Z",
-  "period": "8 weeks",
-  "velocity": {
-    "current": 8.3,
-    "trend": "+15%",
-    "last_sprint": 10,
-    "best": 12,
-    "worst": 5,
-    "std_dev": 2.1
-  },
-  "by_owner": {
-    "AG-UI": 3.2,
-    "AG-API": 4.1,
-    "AG-CI": 0.8,
-    "AG-DEVOPS": 0.2
-  },
-  "forecasts": [
-    {
-      "epic": "EP-0010",
-      "remaining_points": 6,
-      "weeks_needed": 0.7,
-      "completion_date": "2025-10-24",
-      "confidence": 85
-    }
-  ],
-  "risks": [
-    {
-      "type": "dependency",
-      "description": "50% of points from AG-API",
-      "severity": "medium"
-    }
-  ]
-}
-```
-
-WORKFLOW
-
-1. Parse bus/log.jsonl for "done" status changes
-2. Match stories to estimates from frontmatter
-3. Group completions by time period (week/sprint)
-4. Calculate velocity stats (avg, trend, std dev)
-5. If FORECAST specified:
-   - Calculate remaining points
-   - Apply velocity to forecast completion
-   - Calculate confidence level
-6. Render report/chart
-7. Suggest actions based on findings
-
-INTEGRATION
-
-- Save velocity history to docs/08-project/velocity/
-- Update /agileflow:stakeholder-update with velocity data
-- Alert if velocity drops >20% from average
-- Suggest sprint planning capacity based on velocity
-
-RULES
-- Always calculate over at least 3 time periods (for reliability)
-- Warn if sample size too small (<5 stories)
-- Exclude outliers (stories >3x avg) from velocity calc
-- Account for holidays/time off in forecasts
-- Update forecast confidence based on variance
-
-OUTPUT
-- Velocity report (markdown/chart/json)
-- Trend analysis
-- Forecasts for epics/milestones
-- Risk analysis
-- Action items
-
----
-
-## Expected Output
-
-### Success - Velocity Report
-
-```
-📊 Velocity Report
-══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-
-Generated: 2025-10-17 14:30
-Period: Last 4 sprints (8 weeks)
-Team: AG-UI, AG-API, AG-CI, AG-DEVOPS
-
-━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
-📈 Current Velocity
-━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
-
-Average: 8.3 points/week
-Trend: ↗️ +15% (improving)
-Last sprint: 10 points
-Confidence: High (85%)
-
-━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
-🎯 Forecast: EP-0010 (User Auth)
-━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
-
-Stories: 8/12 completed (66%)
-Remaining: 6 points
-At current velocity: < 1 week
-Forecast completion: 2025-10-24
-Confidence: High (85%)
-
-━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
-
-Saved to: docs/08-project/velocity/velocity-2025-10-17.md
-```
-
-### Success - Forecast Mode
-
-```
-📊 Epic Completion Forecast
-══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-
-Epic: EP-0011 (Payment Integration)
-Current velocity: 8.3 points/week
-
-Stories: 2/8 completed (25%)
-Remaining: 6 stories, 9 points
-
-Forecast:
-  P50 (50% confidence): 2025-10-28 (11 days)
-  P80 (80% confidence): 2025-11-01 (15 days)
-  P90 (90% confidence): 2025-11-04 (18 days)
-
-⚠️ Risks:
-  - AG-API dependency (50% of velocity)
-  - 2 stories have external dependencies
-```
-
-### Error - Insufficient Data
-
-```
-⚠️ Insufficient velocity data
-
-Sample size: 3 stories completed
-Minimum required: 5 stories
-
-Velocity calculations require at least 5 completed stories
-over 3+ time periods for reliable forecasting.
-
-Complete more stories and try again.
-```
-
----
-
-## Related Commands
-
-- `/agileflow:sprint` - Sprint planning
-- `/agileflow:metrics` - Analytics dashboard
-- `/agileflow:retro` - Sprint retrospective
-- `/agileflow:board` - Kanban board view
-- `/agileflow:epic:list` - View epics with progress