@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.2 → 2.7.4

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-ic-memo/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: china-ic-memo
+description: Investment Committee memo drafting for China-focused PE/IB deals. Adapted from the original ic-memo skill for Chinese market context, terminology, and decision frameworks. Triggers on "A股投委会", "IC Memo", "investment memo China", "投委会材料", "IC memo A-share", or "committee memo [company]".
+---
+
+# china-ic-memo
+
+## Purpose
+
+Draft **A股投资委员会备忘录 (IC Memo)** — structured decision documents for investment committee reviews.
+
+## Data Sources
+
+### Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
+
+```python
+get_quote(ticker)                        → Valuation context
+get_financials(ticker, "income")         → Financials
+get_industry_stocks(industry="...")       → Peer comparables
+```
+
+### Secondary Sources
+- 巨潮 — company filings
+- Wind / Choice — comprehensive data
+- 券商研报 — existing research
+- 尽调报告 — DD findings
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Step 1: Structure the Memo
+
+**Standard A-share IC memo format:**
+
+```
+【机密】投资委员会备忘录
+
+项目名称：[Target Company]
+交易类型：[Investment type: 股权投资 / 并购 / 老股转让]
+推荐团队：[Team name]
+日期：[Date]
+
+═══════════════════════════════════════════
+
+一、投资建议 (Recommendation)
+   [One-paragraph summary]
+   建议：[批准 / 有条件批准 / 否决]
+   投资金额：[XX亿]
+   目标股权：[XX%]
+   目标价格：[¥XX / EV XX亿]
+
+二、交易概述 (Transaction Overview)
+   - 标的公司：[Name], [Industry], [Listing status]
+   - 交易结构：[Structure description]
+   - 预计交割：[Date]
+   - 投资回报预期：[Xx% IRR, Xx MOIC]
+
+三、投资逻辑 (Investment Thesis)
+   [3-5 bullet points]
+   1. [Key driver 1]
+   2. [Key driver 2]
+   3. [Key driver 3]
+
+四、市场与行业分析 (Market & Industry)
+   - 市场规模：[XX亿], 增速 [X%]
+   - 竞争格局：[Description]
+   - 政策环境：[Policy context]
+   - 趋势判断：[Secular trends]
+
+五、目标公司分析 (Target Analysis)
+   - 商业模式：[Description]
+   - 竞争优势：[Bullets]
+   - 管理团队：[Assessment]
+   - 财务表现：[Summary]
+
+六、估值分析 (Valuation)
+   - 交易估值：[XX亿 / Xx PE]
+   - 可比交易：[Comparable M&A]
+   - DCF估值：[XX亿]
+   - 估值区间：[XX-XX亿]
+   - Upside/Downside：[X% / X%]
+
+七、风险因素 (Risk Factors)
+   - [Risk 1]: [Mitigation]
+   - [Risk 2]: [Mitigation]
+   - [Risk 3]: [Mitigation]
+
+八、交易结构 (Transaction Structure)
+   - 投资金额：[XX亿]
+   - 股权比例：[XX%]
+   - 董事会席位：[X席]
+   - 业绩承诺：[如有]
+   - 反稀释条款：[Description]
+   - 退出安排：[IPO / 并购 / 回购]
+
+九、退出策略 (Exit Strategy)
+   - 主要路径：[A股IPO / 并购 / 老股转让]
+   - 预计时间：[3-5年]
+   - 目标回报：[Xx IRR]
+   - 备选方案：[Alternative exits]
+
+十、结论与建议 (Conclusion)
+   [Summary and committee ask]
+   需要委员会决策的事项：
+   1. [Decision item 1]
+   2. [Decision item 2]
+```
+
+### Step 2: Key Sections Detail
+
+#### Investment Thesis
+
+**Thesis quality check:**
+- Is it specific (not generic)?
+- Are the 2-3 key drivers clear?
+- Is there a clear "why now"?
+- Is the return potential quantified?
+
+#### Valuation
+
+**China-specific valuation considerations:**
+- A-share premium context
+- Comparable transactions (precedent deals)
+- Control premium (20-40% typical)
+- Liquidity discount for restricted shares
+- DCF with China-specific assumptions
+
+#### Risk Factors
+
+**Standard A-share IC risk framework:**
+
+| Risk Category | Specific Risks |
+|--------------|---------------|
+| 市场风险 | A-share volatility, 涨跌停, retail sentiment |
+| 政策风险 | Regulatory changes, 行业政策 |
+| 公司治理 | 关联交易, 股东质押, 同业竞争 |
+| 行业风险 | 产能过剩, 技术迭代, 竞争恶化 |
+| 流动性风险 | 解禁压力, 交易量不足 |
+| 退出风险 | IPO窗口, 并购买家兴趣 |
+| 汇率风险 | For USD-denominated funds |
+
+#### Exit Strategy
+
+**A-share exit analysis:**
+
+| Route | Timeline | Probability | Expected Multiple |
+|-------|----------|-------------|-------------------|
+| A股IPO | 3-5 years | Medium | 3-8x |
+| 并购退出 | 2-4 years | High | 2-4x |
+| 老股转让 | 2-4 years | Medium | 1.5-3x |
+| S基金 | 1-3 years | Low-Medium | 0.8-1.5x NAV |
+
+### Step 3: Decision Framework
+
+**Investment committee decision criteria:**
+
+| Criterion | Weight | Assessment |
+|-----------|--------|------------|
+| 投资逻辑清晰度 | 20% | Strong / Adequate / Weak |
+| 团队质量 | 20% | Strong / Adequate / Weak |
+| 市场吸引力 | 15% | Large / Medium / Small |
+| 竞争壁垒 | 15% | High / Medium / Low |
+| 财务表现 | 15% | Strong / Adequate / Weak |
+| 估值合理性 | 10% | Cheap / Fair / Expensive |
+| 风险可控性 | 5% | Low / Medium / High |
+
+**Overall recommendation:**
+- 强烈推荐 (Strong recommend): >80% criteria met
+- 推荐 (Recommend): 60-80% met
+- 有条件推荐 (Conditional): 40-60% met, conditions clear
+- 不推荐 (Not recommend): <40% met or red flags
+
+### Step 4: Conditions & Follow-up
+
+**If conditional approval:**
+
+| Condition | Owner | Deadline |
+|-----------|-------|----------|
+| e.g., 管理层尽调确认 | [Name] | [Date] |
+| e.g., 估值上限确认 | [Name] | [Date] |
+| e.g., 监管可行性确认 | [Name] | [Date] |
+
+## China-Specific Considerations
+
+### Decision-Making Context
+
+| Factor | China Context |
+|--------|--------------|
+| Decision speed | Can be faster or slower depending on SOE vs private |
+| Approval layers | Multiple for large deals (>1亿 threshold) |
+| Policy alignment | 产业政策 alignment important |
+| Relationship | 关系 (guanxi) influences deal flow and terms |
+| Documentation | Detailed Chinese documentation required |
+
+### Common IC Discussion Points
+
+- 退出确定性 (Exit certainty)
+- 估值谈判空间 (Negotiation room)
+- 业绩对赌可行性 (Earnout practicality)
+- 董事会席位 (Board representation)
+- 反稀释保护 (Anti-dilution)
+- 优先清算权 (Liquidation preference)
+- 监管审批风险 (Regulatory risk)
+
+### Red Flags for IC
+
+| Red Flag | Typical IC Reaction |
+|----------|-------------------|
+| 实际控制人不明 | Require ownership clarification |
+| 关联交易占比高 | Require ring-fencing |
+| 大额质押 | Require investigation |
+| 持续经营能力质疑 | Require CF projections review |
+| 估值显著高于同行 | Require premium justification |
+| 退出路径不清晰 | Require exit analysis |
+| 管理层不稳定 | Require retention analysis |
+
+## Quality Checks
+
+Before presenting:
+- [ ] Memo structure complete
+- [ ] Investment thesis compelling
+- [ ] Valuation analysis thorough
+- [ ] Risks comprehensively identified
+- [ ] Mitigations documented
+- [ ] Exit strategy clear
+- [ ] Conditions specific and measurable
+- [ ] Recommendation supported by analysis
+> **Data Source Mode Switch**: Set env var `IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE` to control data source preference.
+> - `ifind-only` (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
+> - `ifind-fallback` (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
+> - `akshare-only`: Skip iFind, use AkShare only

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-portfolio-monitoring/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: china-portfolio-monitoring
+description: Track and report on A-share portfolio company performance for China-focused private equity funds. Monitors KPIs, financials, and strategic milestones. Adapted from the original portfolio-monitoring skill for Chinese portfolio companies. Triggers on "A股投后管理", "基金投后监控", "portfolio monitoring China", "monitor portfolio company", "投后报告", or "portfolio company review".
+---
+
+# china-portfolio-monitoring
+
+## Purpose
+
+Monitor **A股及中国市场投资组合公司表现** — financial performance, operational KPIs, strategic milestones, and risk indicators.
+
+## Data Sources
+
+### Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
+
+```python
+get_quote(ticker)                        → Stock performance
+get_historical_data(ticker)              → Price trend
+get_financials(ticker, "income")         → Revenue, profit
+get_financials(ticker, "balance")        → Balance sheet health
+get_financials(ticker, "cashflow")        → Cash generation
+get_stock_info(ticker)                   → Company updates
+```
+
+### Secondary Sources
+- 巨潮公告 — material announcements
+- 业绩说明会 — management updates
+- Wind / Choice — ownership, institutional data
+- 券商研报 — analyst updates
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Step 1: Define KPIs by Company
+
+**Financial KPIs (standard):**
+
+| KPI | Frequency | Target / Benchmark |
+|-----|-----------|-------------------|
+| Revenue growth (YoY) | Quarterly | >XX% |
+| Gross margin | Quarterly | >XX% |
+| Net margin | Quarterly | >XX% |
+| EBITDA | Quarterly | Growing |
+| Net debt/EBITDA | Quarterly | <Xx |
+| FCF | Quarterly | Positive |
+| ROE | Quarterly / Annual | >XX% |
+
+**Operational KPIs (company-specific):**
+
+| Sector | Key KPIs |
+|--------|---------|
+| 白酒 | 批价, 动销, 渠道库存, 回款 |
+| 半导体 | 产能利用率, 出货量, 良率 |
+| 新能源 | 装机量, 产能利用率, 技术参数 |
+| 医药 | 研发进度, 临床数据, 集采中标 |
+| 消费 | 门店数量, 同店增速, 库存周转 |
+| SaaS/科技 | ARR, 客户数, NRR, churn |
+
+### Step 2: Financial Monitoring
+
+**Quarterly review template:**
+
+```
+【投后监控】[Company] [Q20XX] 回顾
+
+一、财务表现
+   营业收入: [XX亿] (YoY: [X%]) [vs plan: +/-X%]
+   毛利率: [XX%] (vs plan: +/-X bps)
+   净利润: [XX亿] (YoY: [X%]) [vs plan: +/-X%]
+   EBITDA: [XX亿] (Margin: [XX%])
+   经营现金流: [XX亿]
+   资本支出: [XX亿]
+   自由现金流: [XX亿]
+
+二、资产负债表
+   现金余额: [XX亿]
+   有息负债: [XX亿]
+   净债务: [XX亿]
+   净资产: [XX亿]
+   商誉: [XX亿] (% of equity: [XX%])
+
+三、估值跟踪
+   Current price: [¥XX.XX]
+   Market cap: [XX亿]
+   PE (TTM): [Xx]
+   vs Entry valuation: [Premium/Discount X%]
+   vs Sector median: [Premium/Discount X%]
+
+四、关键运营指标
+   [Sector-specific KPIs with trends]
+
+五、重大事项
+   [Announcements, management changes, M&A, etc.]
+
+六、风险预警
+   [Risk flags, concerns]
+
+七、下一步
+   [Actions, meetings, reviews]
+```
+
+### Step 3: Strategic Milestones
+
+**Milestone tracking:**
+
+| Milestone | Target Date | Status | Notes |
+|-----------|-------------|--------|-------|
+| e.g., New product launch | Q2 2025 | On track | |
+| e.g., Capacity expansion | Q3 2025 | Delayed | 1 quarter |
+| e.g., Management hire | Q1 2025 | Complete | |
+| e.g., IPO filing | Q4 2025 | In progress | |
+
+### Step 4: Value Creation Tracking
+
+**Value creation levers:**
+
+| Lever | Status | Impact |
+|-------|--------|--------|
+| Revenue growth acceleration | | |
+| Margin expansion | | |
+| M&A consolidation | | |
+| International expansion | | |
+| Digital transformation | | |
+| Management upgrade | | |
+
+### Step 5: Risk Monitoring
+
+**Red flag indicators:**
+
+| Risk | Indicator | Threshold | Action |
+|------|-----------|-----------|--------|
+| 经营现金流 | Operating CF | Consecutive quarters negative | Escalate |
+| 毛利率 | Gross margin | Decline >500 bps | Review |
+| 有息负债 | Net debt/EBITDA | >4.0x | Review |
+| 应收账款 | AR days | >120 days | Review |
+| 存货 | Inventory days | >90 days | Review |
+| 股价 | Share price | -30% from entry | Review |
+| 解禁 | Lock-up expiry | <3 months | Monitor |
+| 质押 | Pledge ratio | >50% | Flag |
+
+### Step 6: Reporting
+
+**Monthly / Quarterly report structure:**
+
+```
+【投后月度/季度报告】[Company]
+
+一、期间概要
+   [Executive summary of period]
+
+二、财务更新
+   [Financial KPI table with trends]
+
+三、运营更新
+   [Operational KPIs, milestones]
+
+四、估值更新
+   [Current valuation, mark-to-market]
+
+五、风险与问题
+   [Risk flags, mitigation status]
+
+六、下一步行动
+   [Board meeting, management call, DD items]
+```
+
+## China-Specific Monitoring Considerations
+
+### Market Context
+
+| Factor | Monitoring Implication |
+|--------|----------------------|
+| 涨跌停 | Price movement constraints |
+| 北向资金 | Foreign flow trends |
+| 龙虎榜 | Unusual trading activity |
+| 政策变化 | Regulatory impact on business |
+| 行业景气 | Sector cyclical position |
+
+### Common Issues in A-share Portfolio Companies
+
+| Issue | Warning Signs | Response |
+|-------|--------------|----------|
+| 商誉减值 | Goodwill >30% of equity | Impairment testing |
+| 应收账款积压 | AR growth > revenue growth | Collections push |
+| 存货积压 | Inventory days rising | Discounting, write-downs |
+| 经营现金流差 | CF < Net income repeatedly | Working capital review |
+| 大股东质押 | Pledge ratio rising | Engagement, covenant |
+| 关联交易 | Related party revenue high | Monitor for leakage |
+| 退市风险 | *ST designation, losses | Exit planning |
+
+### Value Creation Levers (China-specific)
+
+| Lever | Description | Typical Impact |
+|-------|-------------|----------------|
+| 精益管理 | Operational efficiency | 10-20% margin improvement |
+| 渠道优化 | Distribution optimization | 15-30% revenue uplift |
+| 数字化转型 | Digital transformation | 20-40% efficiency gain |
+| 并购整合 | Add-on acquisitions | 20-50% value creation |
+| 国际化 | Overseas expansion | New growth vectors |
+| 股权激励 | ESOP implementation | Management alignment |
+| 品牌建设 | Brand investment | Pricing power |
+
+## Quality Checks
+
+Before delivering report:
+- [ ] All financial data sourced and current
+- [ ] KPIs tracked against targets
+- [ ] Milestones updated
+- [ ] Valuation current
+- [ ] Risk flags addressed
+- [ ] Action items clear
+> **Data Source Mode Switch**: Set env var `IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE` to control data source preference.
+> - `ifind-only` (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
+> - `ifind-fallback` (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
+> - `akshare-only`: Skip iFind, use AkShare only

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/china-returns-analysis/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,176 @@
+---
+name: china-returns-analysis
+description: IRR and MOIC analysis for China-focused private equity and investment funds. Adapted from the original returns-analysis skill for RMB/USD fund structures, China market conventions, and Chinese portfolio companies. Triggers on "A股基金回报", "IRR分析", "returns China", "MOIC analysis China", "基金业绩分析", or "portfolio returns review".
+---
+
+# china-returns-analysis
+
+## Purpose
+
+Analyze and report on **中国私募基金回报表现** using IRR, MOIC, and related metrics.
+
+## Key Metrics
+
+### Core Metrics (Same as Global)
+
+| Metric | Formula | Benchmark |
+|--------|---------|-----------|
+| IRR (Internal Rate of Return) | Discounted cash flow rate | 15-20%+ for top China PE |
+| MOIC (Multiple on Invested Capital) | Total returned / Total invested | 2.0-3.0x typical |
+| TVPI (Total Value to Paid-In) | (Distributed + NAV) / Paid-in | >2.0x target |
+| DPI (Distributed to Paid-In) | Distributions / Paid-in | 0.5-1.0x early stage |
+| RVPI (Residual Value to Paid-In) | NAV / Paid-in | >1.0x for active funds |
+
+### China-Specific Metrics
+
+| Metric | Description | Benchmark |
+|--------|-------------|-----------|
+| 人民币IRR | Returns in CNY | 12-18% for quality funds |
+| 美元IRR | Returns in USD (hedged/unhedged) | 15-25% |
+| 项目回报 | Per-investment IRR/MOIC | 20-30% IRR target |
+| 基金回报 | Fund-level IRR | Top quartile: 20%+ |
+| 现金回款 | Distributions received | Annual yield target |
+
+## Data Sources (Multi-Tier)
+
+### Tier 0 — 万得 Wind（最全面付费数据）
+- 覆盖：A股/港美股/基金/指数/债券/宏观/研报/分析（44个工具）
+- MCP 服务：`wind-mcp`（需 `WIND_API_KEY` 密钥，以 `ak_` 开头）
+- 优势：全市场覆盖面最广、数据最全面、包含研报和量化分析
+- 密钥申请：https://aifinmarket.wind.com.cn/#/home
+
+### Tier 1 - iFind (paid)
+> When IFIND_AUTH_TOKEN is configured, iFind is the preferred data source.
+> For equivalent iFind tools, see `china-market-data` skill.
+
+
+### Primary Sources
+
+| Data | Source | Notes |
+|------|--------|-------|
+| 基金估值报告 | Fund administrator | Monthly/quarterly NAV |
+| 投资项目数据 | Portfolio company reports | Financials, valuations |
+| 交易文件 | Investment agreements | Deal terms, waterfalls |
+| 清科 / 投中 | Industry data | Benchmark comparisons |
+
+### Secondary Sources
+- 巨潮 — public portfolio company filings
+- AkShare — market data for public holdings
+- 交易所 — trading data
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Step 1: Fund-Level Summary
+
+**Fund overview table:**
+
+| Fund | Vintage | Size (亿) | Committed | Called | Distributed | NAV | TVPI | IRR |
+|------|---------|-----------|-----------|--------|-------------|-----|------|-----|
+| Fund I | 2018 | 30 | | | | | | |
+| Fund II | 2021 | 50 | | | | | | |
+
+### Step 2: Portfolio-Level Analysis
+
+**By investment:**
+
+| Investment | Date | Cost (亿) | Fair Value (亿) | MOIC | IRR | Status |
+|-----------|------|-----------|----------------|------|-----|--------|
+| | | | | | | Active / Exited / Written off |
+
+### Step 3: Vintage Analysis
+
+**Vintage year performance:**
+
+| Vintage | IRR | MOIC | # Deals | # Exits | TVPI |
+|---------|-----|------|---------|---------|------|
+| | | | | | |
+
+**Benchmark comparison:**
+- vs 沪深300
+- vs 中国PE/VC指数 (if available)
+- vs peer fund performance
+
+### Step 4: Sector Analysis
+
+**Returns by sector:**
+
+| Sector | Invested (亿) | Realized (亿) | NAV (亿) | MOIC | IRR |
+|--------|--------------|--------------|----------|------|-----|
+| 半导体 | | | | | |
+| 新能源 | | | | | |
+| 医药 | | | | | |
+| 消费 | | | | | |
+
+### Step 5: J-Curve Analysis
+
+**Typical China PE J-curve:**
+- Year 0-2: Negative DPI (capital called, no distributions)
+- Year 3-5: DPI starts building
+- Year 5-7: MOIC > 1.0x
+- Year 7+: Strong distributions
+
+### Step 6: Sensitivity Analysis
+
+**Sensitivity on key assumptions:**
+
+| Variable | -20% | -10% | Base | +10% | +20% |
+|----------|------|------|------|------|------|
+| Exit multiple | | | | | |
+| EBITDA growth | | | | | |
+| Time to exit | | | | | |
+
+## China-Specific Considerations
+
+### Fund Structures
+
+| Structure | Description | Common Use |
+|-----------|-------------|-------------|
+| 人民币基金 (RMB fund) | Domestic currency | Onshore investments |
+| 美元基金 (USD fund) | Offshore currency | Cross-border, tech |
+| 双语基金 (Dual currency) | Both RMB and USD | Flexible allocation |
+| 母基金 (Fund of funds) | FoF structure | Diversified access |
+
+### Return Expectations
+
+| Fund Type | IRR Target | MOIC Target | Hold Period |
+|-----------|-----------|-------------|-------------|
+| VC (种子/早期) | 30-40% | 5-10x | 5-8 years |
+| Growth equity | 20-30% | 3-5x | 4-7 years |
+| Buyout | 15-25% | 2-4x | 4-7 years |
+| Distressed | 20-30% | 2-5x | 3-5 years |
+
+### Exit Routes
+
+| Route | Description | Typical Timeline | Multiple |
+|-------|-------------|-----------------|----------|
+| A股IPO | IPO on A-share market | 5-8 years from investment | 3-10x |
+| 并购退出 | Trade sale to strategic | 3-6 years | 2-5x |
+| 老股转让 | Secondary sale | 3-5 years | 1.5-3x |
+| 借壳上市 | Reverse merger | 3-5 years | 2-6x |
+| 回购 | Sponsor/management buyback | 5-8 years | 1.5-2.5x |
+| 基金份额转让 | Fund secondary | Ongoing | 0.7-1.2x NAV |
+
+### Benchmark Indices
+
+| Index | Description |
+|-------|-------------|
+| 沪深300 | Broad A-share market |
+| 中证1000 | Small-cap A-share |
+| 中国PE/VC指数 | PE/VC performance index |
+| 清科指数 | Zero2IPO index |
+| 投中指数 | CVSource index |
+
+## Quality Checks
+
+Before delivering:
+- [ ] All cash flows documented
+- [ ] IRR/MOIC calculations verified
+- [ ] Benchmark comparisons included
+- [ ] Sector analysis complete
+- [ ] Vintage analysis included
+- [ ] J-curve position clear
+- [ ] Sensitivities run
+> **Data Source Mode Switch**: Set env var `IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE` to control data source preference.
+> - `ifind-only` (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
+> - `ifind-fallback` (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
+> - `akshare-only`: Skip iFind, use AkShare only