@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.12 → 2.8.0

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/SKILL.md

@@ -40,645 +40,18 @@ Data & Sources
 
 Comprehensive capital allocation analysis covering dividend safety, growth trajectory, share buyback discipline, M&A track record, debt management, and FCF deployment quality for US-listed stocks, REITs, and income-focused portfolios.
 
-## Analysis Framework
+## Read the Parts
 
-### 1. Dividend Safety Analysis
+Everything below the surface of this file lives in `references/`. **whole, with no line window** — quoting a rule or a template out of a slice of one is how a
+file gets reported as read when it was only skimmed. The file names below are the only
+addressing this entry has.
 
-Assess the reliability and sustainability of the dividend:
+- `references/10-analysis-framework.md` — Analysis Framework
+- `references/11-dividend-history-and-reliability.md` — (continued) Analysis Framework; Capital Allocation — Beyond Dividends
+- `references/12-share-buyback-analysis.md` — (continued) Capital Allocation — Beyond Dividends
+- `references/13-fcf-deployment-scorecard.md` — (continued) Capital Allocation — Beyond Dividends; Data Sources; Input Formats
+- `references/14-output.md` — Output; Standard Signal Output; Thesis Invalidation
 
-**Payout Ratio Analysis**
-- **EPS-based payout ratio**: Dividends per share / Earnings per share. Simple but earnings can be distorted by non-cash items.
-- **FCF-based payout ratio**: Dividends paid / Free cash flow. More reliable measure — cash must be available to actually pay dividends.
-- **AFFO payout ratio** (REITs): Dividends / Adjusted Funds From Operations. Standard metric for REITs since depreciation distorts net income.
-
-**Safety Thresholds by Sector**
-```
-Sector               Very Safe    Moderate     Elevated     Danger
-General (FCF)          <50%        50-70%       70-85%       >85%
-Utilities (FCF)        <60%        60-75%       75-85%       >85%
-REITs (AFFO)           <70%        70-80%       80-90%       >90%
-Banks (Earnings)       <30%        30-40%       40-55%       >55%
-MLPs (DCF)             <60%        60-75%       75-90%       >90%
-```
-
-**Dividend Safety Score (0-100)**
-
-Weighted composite score:
-- FCF payout ratio (25 pts): <50% = 25, 50-70% = 20, 70-85% = 10, >85% = 0
-- FCF coverage ratio (20 pts): >2x = 20, 1.5-2x = 15, 1.0-1.5x = 8, <1.0x = 0
-- Debt-to-EBITDA (20 pts): <1.5x = 20, 1.5-2.5x = 14, 2.5-3.5x = 7, >3.5x = 0
-- Earnings stability (20 pts): Positive EPS 5yr = 20, 1 down year = 12, 2+ down years = 4
-- Dividend history (15 pts): 10+ yr streak = 15, 5-9 yrs = 10, 2-4 yrs = 5, <2 yrs = 0
-
-```
-Score      Grade    Safety Assessment
-90-100       A+     Very Safe
-75-89        A      Safe
-60-74        B      Borderline Safe
-45-59        C      Elevated Risk
-30-44        D      Unsafe
-0-29         F      Danger Zone
-```
-
-**Dividend Stress Test**
-- Scenario 1: Earnings decline 20% — can dividend be maintained at current payout?
-- Scenario 2: Earnings decline 40% — what happens to dividend?
-- Scenario 3: FCF drops to 5-year trough — payout ratio at trough FCF?
-- Scenario 4: Revenue declines to 2020 COVID levels — stress test against prior recession data
-- Pass/Fail for each scenario with projected payout ratio under stress
-
-### 2. Dividend Growth Analysis
-
-Measure the trajectory and sustainability of dividend increases:
-
-**Dividend Growth Rate Calculations**
-- 1-year DGR: Most recent annual dividend / Prior year annual dividend - 1
-- 3-year DGR CAGR: (Current annual dividend / Dividend 3 years ago)^(1/3) - 1
-- 5-year DGR CAGR: (Current / 5yr ago)^(1/5) - 1
-- 10-year DGR CAGR: (Current / 10yr ago)^(1/10) - 1
-
-```
-DGR Tier        Range          Characteristic
-Exceptional      >15%          High-growth compounders (FAST Graphs category)
-Strong           8-15%         Solid dividend growers, re-rated higher
-Moderate         4-8%          In line with or above inflation
-Slow             1-4%          Token increases, inflation parity risk
-Frozen           0%            No recent growth
-Cut             <0%            Dividend reduced — major red flag
-```
-
-**Dividend Aristocrats and Kings**
-- **Dividend Aristocrats**: S&P 500 constituents with 25+ consecutive years of dividend increases
-- **Dividend Kings**: Stocks with 50+ consecutive years of consecutive increases (elite tier)
-- **Dividend Achievers**: Stocks with 10+ consecutive years of increases (Nasdaq definition)
-- Status confirmation adds credibility to safety assessment
-
-**Chowder Rule**
-```
-Chowder Number = Current Yield + 5-Year DGR
-
-Thresholds:
-- Growth stocks (yield <3%): Chowder Number >= 12%
-- High-yield stocks (yield >= 3%): Chowder Number >= 8%
-- Utilities: Chowder Number >= 8% (special lower threshold)
-
-Example: Yield 2.5% + 5yr DGR 10% = Chowder 12.5% (PASS for growth stock)
-```
-
-**Dividend Growth Sustainability Analysis**
-- EPS growth rate vs. dividend growth rate: DGR > EPS growth = unsustainable (payout expansion)
-- Payout ratio trend: expanding payout ratio limits future growth capacity
-- FCF per share growth trend (primary driver of long-term DGR)
-- Analyst consensus EPS growth estimate → maximum sustainable DGR = EPS growth + (payout reduction capacity)
-- Revenue growth required to sustain dividend at current margins
-
-### 3. Yield Analysis
-
-Evaluate current yield attractiveness in historical and relative context:
-
-**Current and Forward Yield**
-- **Trailing yield**: Last 12 months dividends paid / Current price
-- **Forward yield**: Projected next 12 months dividends / Current price (based on most recent quarterly dividend × 4)
-- **Yield spread**: Forward yield minus 10-year Treasury yield. Positive spread = attractive income premium vs. risk-free rate.
-
-**Historical Yield Context**
-```
-Yield Position          Interpretation
-Current yield < 5yr avg   Stock trading at premium to historical (yield compressed = expensive)
-Current yield ≈ 5yr avg   Fairly valued relative to history
-Current yield > 5yr avg   Stock trading at discount (yield elevated = potentially cheap or risk elevated)
-Current yield > 10yr avg  Historically cheap zone (requires safety check)
-```
-
-**Yield vs. 10-Year Treasury Analysis**
-- Yield spread over 10-year Treasury: track historical spread compression/expansion
-- Equity risk premium: compensates for equity risk vs. guaranteed government yield
-- When spread < 1%: dividend yield barely compensates for equity risk vs. bonds
-- When spread > 3%: significantly better income from equity vs. bonds (attractive)
-
-**Yield-on-Cost (YOC) for Existing Holders**
-- YOC = Original purchase price yield × (1 + DGR)^years held
-- Demonstrates power of growing dividends on a fixed cost basis
-- Example: 2% yield at purchase with 10% DGR for 10 years = 5.2% YOC
-
-**Yield Trap Detection**
-
-High yield + deteriorating business = value trap. Scrutiny triggers:
-- Yield exceeds 7%: require thorough FCF analysis before investing
-- Yield > 2x sector average: market pricing in dividend risk
-- Yield spiked due to price decline (not dividend increase): investigate cause
-- Consecutive quarters of FCF deterioration while yield elevated
-- Debt issuance to fund dividend payments
-- Red flags: declining revenue, rising payout ratio, credit rating downgrades, management tone change on dividend
-
-### 4. Dividend History and Reliability
-
-Assess the track record of consistent payments:
-
-**Payment History Metrics**
-- Consecutive years of uninterrupted dividend payments
-- Consecutive years of dividend increases (key Aristocrat/King qualifier)
-- Longest streak before any interruption
-
-**Recession Durability**
-- 2000-2002 dot-com recession: Was dividend maintained? Cut? Raised?
-- 2008-2009 financial crisis: Stress test benchmark — worst modern recession for dividends
-- 2020 COVID-19 pandemic: Industry-specific stress (travel, retail vs. tech, healthcare)
-- Pattern: Companies that maintained dividends in 2008-2009 AND 2020 = highest quality
-
-**Dividend Variability Score**
-- Standard deviation of quarterly dividend payments over 5 years
-- Low variability = consistent, predictable income
-- High variability = irregular payments (often MLPs, resource companies)
-- Flag: Any quarters with 0 dividend (interrupted streak)
-
-**Special Dividends History**
-- Frequency of special/supplemental dividends
-- Size relative to regular dividend (>25% = meaningful supplement)
-- Source: excess FCF, asset sales, one-time items
-- Interpretation: signals strong balance sheet but not guaranteed income
-
-### 5. Financial Health Supporting Dividends
-
-Analyze the underlying balance sheet and cash flow capacity:
-
-**Free Cash Flow Coverage**
-- FCF coverage = FCF / Total dividends paid
-- Target: >1.5x (dividend consumes <67% of FCF)
-- Warning: <1.2x (thin margin of safety)
-- Danger: <1.0x (dividend exceeds FCF — funded by debt or asset sales)
-
-**Leverage Analysis**
-```
-Debt-to-EBITDA    Dividend Capacity
-<2.0x             Comfortable — dividend growth well supported
-2.0-3.0x          Moderate — growth may slow, dividend stable
-3.0-4.0x          Constrained — dividend at risk if earnings decline
->4.0x             High risk — debt servicing may crowd out dividends
-```
-
-**Interest Coverage Ratio**
-- EBIT / Interest expense
-- >5x: Strong — debt servicing leaves ample room for dividends
-- 3-5x: Adequate — moderate buffer
-- 2-3x: Tight — interest burden limits flexibility
-- <2x: Concerning — dividends may compete with debt service
-
-**Liquidity Analysis**
-- Cash and equivalents on balance sheet
-- Months of dividends covered by current cash (Cash / Annual dividend)
-- Revolving credit facility availability
-- Upcoming debt maturities that require cash allocation
-
-**Credit Rating Impact**
-- Investment-grade rating (BBB- and above): access to capital markets supports dividend
-- Below investment-grade: higher borrowing cost constrains dividend flexibility
-- Rating watch negative: proactive concern — dividend may be reviewed
-- Downgrade history relative to dividend decisions
-
-### 6. Income Optimization Analysis
-
-Model the income generation and compounding potential:
-
-**Total Return Decomposition**
-- Income component: dividend yield contribution to annual return
-- Price appreciation component: capital gains contribution
-- For dividend investors: income component often 30-60% of total return over time
-
-**DRIP Reinvestment Analysis**
-- Compound growth projection assuming dividends reinvested at current yield
-- Year 1, 5, 10, 20 projections at: 0% DGR (frozen), 3% DGR, 7% DGR, 10% DGR
-- Example: $10,000 investment at 3% yield, 7% DGR, DRIP for 20 years = [calculated value]
-- DRIP accelerates wealth building by purchasing additional shares at each dividend
-
-**Tax Efficiency**
-- **Qualified dividends**: taxed at lower capital gains rates (0%, 15%, or 20%)
-  - Requirements: US corporation, held >60 days in 120-day window around ex-div
-- **Non-qualified (ordinary) dividends**: taxed at ordinary income rates (up to 37%)
-- **REIT distributions**: largely ordinary income (not qualified) — best in tax-advantaged accounts
-- **Foreign withholding taxes**: may apply to ADRs and foreign-domiciled companies
-- **MLP distributions**: return of capital treatment (reduces cost basis)
-
-**Ex-Dividend Date Calendar**
-- Ex-dividend date: must own shares before this date to receive dividend
-- Record date: typically 1 business day after ex-div
-- Payment date: typically 2-4 weeks after record date
-- Impact: stock typically declines by approximately dividend amount on ex-div date
-
-**Portfolio Income Modeling**
-- At current prices and yields: projected annual income from portfolio
-- Annual income per $100,000 invested by ticker
-- Weighted average portfolio yield
-- Quarterly income distribution timeline
-
-### 7. Peer Comparison
-
-Benchmark the stock's dividend metrics against sector:
-
-**Comparison Metrics Table**
-
-| Metric | [Stock] | Sector Median | Sector Top Quartile | Assessment |
-|--------|---------|---------------|--------------------|-|
-| Dividend Yield | X.X% | X.X% | X.X% | Above/Below |
-| FCF Payout Ratio | XX% | XX% | XX% | Safe/Risky |
-| 5-yr DGR | X.X% | X.X% | X.X% | Strong/Weak |
-| Chowder Number | XX.X | XX.X | XX.X | Pass/Fail |
-| Safety Score | XX | XX | XX | Grade |
-| Consecutive Increases | XX yrs | XX yrs | XX yrs | — |
-
-**Value vs. Yield Matrix**
-- Identify sector peers with better yield at similar or lower valuation
-- Compare P/E vs. yield to identify mispriced dividend payers
-- Best-in-class: highest Chowder Number, highest Safety Score, lowest payout ratio
-
----
-
-## Capital Allocation — Beyond Dividends
-
-### 8. Share Buyback Analysis
-
-Evaluate the quality, discipline, and shareholder value impact of the buyback program:
-
-**Buyback Authorization vs. Execution Rate**
-- Board-authorized repurchase program size ($B and % of market cap)
-- Actual shares repurchased over trailing 1, 3, and 5 years vs. authorization
-- Execution rate = Actual buybacks / Authorized amount. <50% execution signals authorization is more PR than commitment.
-- Open-ended vs. time-limited program structure
-
-**Buyback Yield**
-```
-Buyback Yield = Annual Buybacks ($) / Market Cap
-
-Interpretation:
->5%     Very High — meaningful return of capital
-3-5%    High — material shareholder benefit
-1-3%    Moderate — supplementary to other returns
-<1%     Low — minimal buyback impact
-```
-
-**Price Discipline: Are They Buying Smart?**
-- Compare average buyback price (total buybacks / shares retired) to estimated intrinsic value
-- Cross-reference buyback timing with stock price history: did they buy at peaks or troughs?
-- Assess whether management references valuation discipline in earnings calls or 8-K filings
-- Red flag: heavy buybacks at peak multiples followed by equity issuance at lower prices (value destruction cycle)
-- Green flag: buybacks accelerate when stock trades below 52-week average and slow at all-time highs
-
-**EPS Accretion / Dilution Impact**
-- Shares outstanding trend (5-year): shrinking = accretive, flat = offset by stock comp, growing = dilutive
-- Net buyback rate = (Buybacks - Stock-based compensation issuance) / Beginning shares outstanding
-- Positive net buyback rate: genuine per-share value creation
-- Stock-based compensation as % of FCF: >15% indicates compensation is largely offsetting buyback benefits
-
-**Insider Ownership Change from Buybacks**
-- Management and insider ownership % before and after buyback program
-- Higher ownership % via buybacks (without insider sales) = alignment signal
-- Watch for executives simultaneously selling shares while company repurchases — misalignment flag
-
-### 9. M&A Capital Allocation
-
-Evaluate how management deploys capital in acquisitions:
-
-**Historical Acquisition Multiples Paid**
-- List of major acquisitions (last 10 years) with: deal size, EV/EBITDA paid, EV/Revenue paid
-- Compare deal multiples to prevailing sector averages at time of acquisition
-- Premium paid vs. 30-day pre-announcement trading price
-```
-Acquisition Multiple Assessment:
-EV/EBITDA paid     Assessment
-<8x                Disciplined — below sector norm
-8-12x              Fair — in line with sector
-12-18x             Premium — requires strong strategic rationale
->18x               Rich — significant execution risk, high dilution risk
-```
-
-**Acquisition Integration Track Record**
-- For each major deal: post-acquisition revenue growth vs. original projections
-- Goodwill impairments taken (a direct admission of overpayment)
-- Post-deal margin trajectory: synergies realized vs. promised synergies?
-- Management tenure on acquired businesses: assets retained or subsequently divested?
-- Rule of thumb: companies that regularly impair goodwill are serial overpayers
-
-**Deal Discipline: Overpaying Risk Score**
-```
-Risk Factor                                    Points
-History of goodwill impairments                +2
-Average EV/EBITDA paid > sector median + 20%  +2
-Acquisitions during peak market periods        +1
-Frequent large deals (>3 major in 5 yrs)       +1
-Post-deal margin compression                   +1
-Management turnover post-acquisition           +1
-Overpaying Risk Score: 0 = Disciplined | 3+ = Caution | 5+ = Dealmaker Risk
-```
-
-**Organic vs. Inorganic Growth Split**
-- Revenue growth decomposed: organic growth % vs. acquisition contribution %
-- Companies growing primarily through acquisitions carry execution and integration risk
-- Preferred profile: >60% organic growth with acquisitions as bolt-ons, not growth substitutes
-- M&A dependency ratio: Acquired revenue in period / Total revenue growth in period
-
-### 10. Debt Management
-
-Evaluate how management structures and manages the balance sheet:
-
-**Debt Paydown Pace vs. Optimal Leverage**
-- Current net debt / EBITDA vs. management's stated target leverage
-- Annual debt reduction pace (last 3 years): de-levering or re-levering?
-- Post-acquisition leverage spike: how quickly did they return to target?
-- Optimal leverage range by sector:
-```
-Sector              Conservative    Moderate    Stretched
-Technology          0-0.5x          0.5-1.5x    >2.0x
-Consumer Staples    1.0-2.0x        2.0-3.0x    >3.5x
-Industrials         1.5-2.5x        2.5-3.5x    >4.0x
-Utilities           2.5-4.0x        4.0-5.0x    >6.0x
-REITs               4.0-6.0x        6.0-7.0x    >8.0x
-```
-
-**Refinancing Risk (Maturity Schedule)**
-- Debt maturity wall: total maturities due in the next 1, 2, 3, and 5 years
-- Maturity concentration: >30% of debt maturing in a single year = elevated refinancing risk
-- Current interest rate environment vs. existing fixed coupon: rising-rate risk on floating debt
-- Undrawn revolving credit facility as buffer against maturity pressure
-
-**Covenant Headroom**
-- Key financial covenants (Debt/EBITDA, Interest Coverage minimums) from credit agreement disclosures
-- Current ratio vs. covenant threshold: headroom percentage
-- Historical covenant compliance record
-- Waiver history: any covenant waivers obtained = yellow flag
-
-**Credit Rating Trend**
-- Current rating from Moody's, S&P, Fitch (note most recent action)
-- Rating trajectory (last 3 rating actions: upgrades, downgrades, outlook changes)
-- Investment-grade threshold: BBB-/Baa3 and above — critical for institutional ownership and dividend sustainability
-- Negative outlook or credit watch = potential near-term action risk
-- Spread on bonds vs. comparable investment-grade index: market's implied rating view
-
-### 11. FCF Deployment Scorecard
-
-Evaluate how every dollar of free cash flow is allocated across competing priorities:
-
-**Where Does Every $1 of FCF Go?**
-
-Break down actual FCF deployment over trailing 3 years (TTM and 3-year average):
-```
-FCF Deployment Breakdown:
-  Dividends paid:          XX%   ($X.Xb)
-  Share buybacks:          XX%   ($X.Xb)
-  Debt reduction:          XX%   ($X.Xb)
-  Capital expenditures:    XX%   (already deducted from FCF — note if gross capex used)
-  M&A and investments:     XX%   ($X.Xb)
-  Cash accumulation:        XX%   ($X.Xb)
-  Total:                  100%
-```
-- Note: if using levered FCF, capex is already deducted; use gross cash deployment including capex separately if unlevered FCF is the base
-- Trend: is FCF deployment mix shifting? (e.g., buybacks replacing dividends, or debt paydown replacing buybacks)
-
-**Capital Return Yield vs. Peers**
-```
-Capital Return Yield = Dividend Yield + Buyback Yield
-
-Stock         Div Yield   Buyback Yield   Total Return Yield   vs. Peer Median
-[Stock]         X.X%         X.X%              X.X%               +/- X.Xpp
-[Peer 1]        X.X%         X.X%              X.X%               Median
-[Peer 2]        X.X%         X.X%              X.X%               +/- X.Xpp
-[Peer 3]        X.X%         X.X%              X.X%               +/- X.Xpp
-```
-
-**Management Capital Allocation Grade**
-
-Score each dimension and assign an overall letter grade:
-
-| Dimension | Score | Grade | Key Evidence |
-|-----------|-------|-------|--------------|
-| Dividend safety & growth | X/10 | A-F | Payout ratio, streak, DGR |
-| Buyback discipline | X/10 | A-F | Price timing, net share reduction |
-| M&A track record | X/10 | A-F | Goodwill impairments, synergy delivery |
-| Debt management | X/10 | A-F | Leverage trajectory, maturity management |
-| FCF deployment efficiency | X/10 | A-F | Return yield vs. peers, cash hoarding |
-| **Overall Grade** | **X/10** | **A-F** | **Composite assessment** |
-
-```
-Grade Criteria:
-A (9-10): Consistent compounders — buyback below fair value, dividend aristocrat, M&A creates value, optimal leverage
-B (7-8):  Good stewards — solid on most dimensions, one area of weakness
-C (5-6):  Average — market-rate capital return, limited M&A track record
-D (3-4):  Poor — overpays for M&A, buybacks at peak, dividend growth stagnant
-F (0-2):  Value destroyers — goodwill impairments, dividend cuts, re-levering balance sheet
-```
-
-### 12. Capital Allocation Quality Score (Composite 0–10)
-
-Single composite score summarizing overall capital allocation quality:
-
-```
-Component                        Weight   Score (0-10)   Weighted Score
-Dividend Safety Score              20%      X.X            X.X
-Dividend Growth Quality            10%      X.X            X.X
-Buyback Discipline                 20%      X.X            X.X
-M&A Track Record                   20%      X.X            X.X
-Debt Management Quality            15%      X.X            X.X
-FCF Deployment Efficiency          15%      X.X            X.X
-━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
-Capital Allocation Quality Score   100%                    X.X / 10
-```
-
-```
-Score    Interpretation
-9-10     Exceptional stewardship — rare, compounding machines
-7-8      Strong allocators — above-average long-term value creation
-5-6      Average — market-rate capital allocation, no clear edge
-3-4      Below average — capital misallocation risk weighs on returns
-0-2      Poor stewardship — history of value destruction through M&A, buybacks at peaks, or dividend unsustainability
-```
-
----
-
-## Data Sources
-
-**Primary Financials**
-- SEC filings (10-K / 10-Q): FCF, net income, dividends paid (cash flow statement), share repurchase disclosures
-- Company investor relations pages: dividend history, buyback program announcements, earnings call transcripts
-
-**Dividend Research Platforms**
-- **Simply Safe Dividends**: Dividend Safety Scores, comprehensive dividend data (premium)
-- **Dividend.com**: Dividend yield, history, DRIP calculators
-- **DRIP Investing Resource Center (dripinvesting.org)**: Aristocrats/Kings lists
-- **Seeking Alpha Dividends**: Analyst commentary on dividend sustainability
-- **S&P Global**: Official Dividend Aristocrats and Kings lists
-
-**Capital Allocation Research**
-- **Compustat / FactSet**: Multi-year buyback and M&A data
-- **Bloomberg**: Credit ratings, bond spreads, covenant disclosures
-- **Morningstar**: Capital allocation ratings, M&A track record, stewardship grade
-- **GuruFocus**: FCF analysis, buyback history, insider ownership
-
-**Screening Tools**
-- Finviz screener: Filter by dividend yield, payout ratio, buyback yield
-- Morningstar: Capital Allocation rating (Exemplary / Standard / Poor)
-- GuruFocus: Capital allocation and management quality scores
-
-## Input Formats
-
-### Format 1: Single Ticker
-```
-User: /dividend-analysis AAPL
-
-Claude analyzes AAPL across all capital allocation dimensions
-```
-
-### Format 2: Portfolio Income Review
-```
-User: /dividend-analysis --portfolio AAPL,JNJ,KO,PEP,XOM
-
-Claude provides comparative analysis across all tickers with portfolio-level income model and capital return yields
-```
-
-### Format 3: Sector Screen
-```
-User: /dividend-analysis --sector utilities
-
-Claude screens utilities sector for best capital allocation quality using safety, growth, buyback yield, and M&A discipline criteria
-```
-
-## Output
-
-Provide a comprehensive capital allocation analysis report with the following sections:
-
-### 1. Executive Summary
-- **Capital Allocation Quality Score**: [0-10] with interpretation
-- **Dividend Safety Score**: [0-100] with letter grade (A+/A/B/C/D/F)
-- **Safety Assessment**: Very Safe / Safe / Borderline / Unsafe / Danger
-- **Current Yield**: X.X% trailing | X.X% forward
-- **Capital Return Yield**: X.X% (dividend + buyback yield)
-- **Chowder Number**: X.X (Pass/Fail)
-- **Management Allocation Grade**: A/B/C/D/F
-- **Key Finding**: 2-3 sentence summary of most important conclusion
-
-### 2. Dividend Safety Analysis
-```
-FCF Payout Ratio:       XX%     (Target <70%)
-FCF Coverage Ratio:     X.Xx    (Target >1.5x)
-Debt-to-EBITDA:         X.Xx    (Target <3x)
-Interest Coverage:      X.Xx    (Target >3x)
-Stress Test (20% EPS):  PASS/FAIL
-Stress Test (40% EPS):  PASS/FAIL
-Safety Score:           XX/100  Grade [X]
-```
-
-### 3. Dividend Growth Metrics
-```
-1-Year DGR:             X.X%
-3-Year DGR (CAGR):      X.X%
-5-Year DGR (CAGR):      X.X%
-10-Year DGR (CAGR):     X.X%
-Aristocrat Status:      Yes/No (XX consecutive years)
-Chowder Number:         X.X% (Pass/Fail at X% threshold)
-Payout Ratio Trend:     Expanding / Stable / Contracting
-```
-
-### 4. Share Buyback Scorecard
-```
-Buyback Yield (TTM):    X.X%
-Net Share Reduction:    X.X% annualized (shares outstanding trend)
-Stock Comp Offset:      XX% of buybacks offset by SBC
-Price Discipline:       Buying below / at / above estimated intrinsic value
-EPS Accretion Impact:   +X.X% annual EPS lift from net share reduction
-Buyback Grade:          A / B / C / D / F
-```
-
-### 5. M&A Track Record
-- Summary table of major acquisitions with multiples paid and outcome
-- Goodwill impairment history
-- Organic vs. inorganic revenue growth split
-- Overpaying Risk Score: X/8 (Low / Moderate / High)
-- M&A Grade: A / B / C / D / F
-
-### 6. Debt Management Assessment
-```
-Net Debt / EBITDA:      X.Xx  (Target range: X.X-X.Xx)
-Management Target:      X.Xx  (stated in investor materials)
-Leverage Trend:         De-levering / Stable / Re-levering
-Nearest Maturity Wall:  $Xb due in [Year] (XX% of total debt)
-Credit Rating:          [Moody's] / [S&P] / Outlook
-Covenant Headroom:      XX% above nearest covenant threshold
-Debt Grade:             A / B / C / D / F
-```
-
-### 7. FCF Deployment Breakdown
-- Pie breakdown: dividends %, buybacks %, M&A %, debt paydown %, cash accumulation %
-- Capital return yield vs. 3-5 sector peers
-- Management Capital Allocation Grade table (all 5 dimensions)
-
-### 8. Capital Allocation Quality Score Summary
-Full scoring table with component weights and final 0-10 composite score
-
-### 9. Yield Trap Assessment
-- Is current yield elevated vs. historical? If yes, why?
-- FCF trend supporting or undermining yield?
-- Red flag checklist (5-7 criteria, checked or clear)
-- Verdict: Genuine Value / Yield Trap Risk / Monitoring Required
-
-### 10. Peer Comparison Table
-Full comparison table vs. 3-5 sector peers across key metrics (dividend yield, buyback yield, total return yield, FCF payout, DGR, capital allocation score)
-
-### 11. Income Projections
-```
-$10,000 Invested at Current Price:
-  Annual income (Year 1):    $XXX
-  Annual income (Year 5):    $XXX  (at X% projected DGR)
-  Annual income (Year 10):   $XXX
-  Yield-on-Cost (Year 10):   X.X%
-  DRIP value (Year 10):      $XX,XXX
-```
-
-### 12. Key Risks to Capital Allocation
-- Ranked list of top 3-5 risks (dividend cut, M&A misstep, leverage spike, buyback cessation)
-- Probability assessment (Low/Medium/High) for each risk
-
-### 13. Monitoring Triggers
-- Specific metrics and thresholds that would change the safety assessment or overall score
-- Next dividend declaration date / ex-div date
-- Upcoming earnings where FCF and buyback data will be updated
-- Key M&A watch: is management signaling appetite for large deals?
-
-## Standard Signal Output
-
-All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
-
-```
-## Thesis Invalidation
-
-After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
-
-**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- dividend cut announced OR debt/EBITDA exceeds 4x
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- dividend raised AND FCF payout ratio improves below 50%
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**Re-run this analysis when:**
-- [ ] Next earnings release
-- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
-- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
-- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
-
-╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
-║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
-║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
-║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
-║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
-║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
-╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
-```
-
-Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
-Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
-Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
-
-**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
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