@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.12 → 2.8.0

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/SKILL.md

@@ -40,463 +40,16 @@ Data & Sources
 
 Comprehensive analysis of insider transaction activity to identify investment signals, patterns, and potential red flags from SEC Form 4 filings.
 
-## Analysis Framework
+## Read the Parts
 
-### 1. Transaction Summary (Last 6-12 Months)
+Everything below the surface of this file lives in `references/`. **whole, with no line window** — quoting a rule or a template out of a slice of one is how a
+file gets reported as read when it was only skimmed. The file names below are the only
+addressing this entry has.
 
-Provide overview of insider trading activity:
+- `references/10-analysis-framework.md` — Analysis Framework
+- `references/11-pattern-recognition.md` — (continued) Analysis Framework; Input Formats; Output
+- `references/12-interpretation-guidelines.md` — Interpretation Guidelines; Usage Examples; Integration Notes; Standard Signal Output; Thesis Invalidation
 
-**Transaction Counts**
-- Total transactions: [Number]
-- Buys: [Number] ([%] of total)
-- Sells: [Number] ([%] of total)
-- Exercises/Awards: [Number] (non-market transactions)
-
-**Transaction Volume**
-- Total value traded: $[Amount]
-- Buy volume: $[Amount]
-- Sell volume: $[Amount]
-- Net insider sentiment: $[Net Amount] (Buy - Sell)
-
-**Active Period Analysis**
-- Most active month: [Month]
-- Clustered activity periods: [Dates]
-- Quiet periods: [Dates]
-
-### 2. Insider Sentiment Analysis
-
-Calculate and interpret net insider sentiment:
-
-**Net Sentiment Calculation**
-```
-Net Sentiment = (Buy $ - Sell $) / (Buy $ + Sell $)
-
-Ranges:
-+0.5 to +1.0  = Strongly Bullish
-+0.2 to +0.5  = Moderately Bullish
--0.2 to +0.2  = Neutral
--0.5 to -0.2  = Moderately Bearish
--1.0 to -0.5  = Strongly Bearish
-```
-
-**Sentiment Context**
-- Current sentiment vs. historical baseline
-- Sentiment trend (improving/deteriorating)
-- Significance level (number and size of transactions)
-- Comparison to peer company insiders
-
-**Reliability Factors**
-- Sample size (number of insiders trading)
-- Transaction size relative to holdings
-- Timing relative to information events
-- Consistency across multiple insiders
-
-### 3. Significant Transactions
-
-Highlight meaningful insider trades:
-
-**Criteria for Significance**
-- Transaction size > $1 million
-- Position change > 10% of holdings
-- Unusual timing (near lows/highs, before announcements)
-- CEO or CFO transactions
-- Multiple insiders trading in same direction within short period
-
-**For Each Significant Transaction**
-
-| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value | % of Holdings | Price | Notes |
-|------|---------|----------|-------------|--------|-------|---------------|-------|-------|
-| [Date] | [Name] | [Title] | Buy/Sell | [#] | $[Amount] | [%] | $[Price] | [Context] |
-
-**Transaction Analysis**
-- **Bullish Signals**: Large insider buys, clustered buying, CEO purchases, buying near 52-week lows
-- **Bearish Signals**: Large insider sells, clustered selling, executive selling before bad news
-- **Neutral Signals**: Small routine sells for diversification, 10b5-1 plan executions
-
-### 4. Insider Categories
-
-Analyze transactions by insider role:
-
-**Executive Officers (CEO, CFO, COO)**
-- Highest signal value due to information access
-- Large transactions particularly meaningful
-- Sales less concerning if part of regular compensation
-
-**Board of Directors**
-- Independent directors' purchases carry strong signals
-- Less frequent trading but often meaningful
-- May have strategic visibility beyond operations
-
-**Major Shareholders (>10% owners)**
-- Often have board seats or strategic influence
-- Large transactions can move markets
-- Sales may be for portfolio rebalancing
-
-**Other Insiders (VPs, Senior Managers)**
-- Weaker signal but useful in aggregate
-- Clustered activity more meaningful than individual trades
-- May indicate operational knowledge
-
-### 5. Transaction Types & SEC Forms
-
-Interpret different transaction codes:
-
-**Form 4 Transaction Codes**
-- **P (Purchase)**: Open market buy - BULLISH SIGNAL
-- **S (Sale)**: Open market sell - BEARISH SIGNAL (but often routine)
-- **M (Exercise)**: Option exercise - Neutral
-- **F (Tax Payment)**: Shares surrendered for taxes - Neutral
-- **A (Award)**: Stock grant/award - Neutral
-- **G (Gift)**: Gift transfer - Neutral
-- **D (Disposition)**: Return to company - Neutral
-
-**Form 3 vs. Form 4 vs. Form 5**
-- **Form 3**: Initial statement of beneficial ownership (new insider)
-- **Form 4**: Changes in ownership (filed within 2 business days)
-- **Form 5**: Annual statement of changes (deferred reporting)
-
-**10b5-1 Trading Plans**
-- Pre-arranged trading plans to avoid insider trading allegations
-- Marked in filings if transaction was under 10b5-1
-- Less signal value than discretionary trades
-- Look for plan adoption/termination patterns
-
-### 6. Ownership Trends
-
-Track changes in insider ownership percentage:
-
-**Current Ownership Structure**
-- Total insider ownership: [%]
-- CEO ownership: [%]
-- Top 5 insiders combined: [%]
-
-**Ownership Trend (12 months)**
-```
-Quarter        Total Insider %    Change from Prior
-[Qn YYYY]          [%]              [±%]
-[Qn-1 YYYY]        [%]              [±%]
-[Qn-2 YYYY]        [%]              [±%]
-[Qn-3 YYYY]        [%]              [±%]
-```
-
-**Interpretation**
-- **Increasing ownership**: Insiders accumulating = Bullish
-- **Stable ownership**: Confidence maintained = Neutral to Bullish
-- **Decreasing ownership**: Distribution = Bearish (but check reasons)
-
-**Skin in the Game Assessment**
-- High insider ownership (>20%): Strong alignment
-- Medium ownership (10-20%): Adequate alignment
-- Low ownership (<10%): Weaker alignment
-- CEO ownership relative to compensation
-
-### 7. Timing Analysis
-
-Evaluate timing of insider transactions:
-
-**Relative to Stock Price**
-- Buying near 52-week lows: Strong bullish signal
-- Buying after significant decline: Contrarian confidence
-- Selling near 52-week highs: Less bearish (profit-taking)
-- Selling before decline: Red flag if not disclosed later
-
-**Relative to Information Events**
-- Before earnings release
-- Before major announcements (M&A, product launches)
-- During blackout periods (should be restricted)
-- After significant news (reaction to public information)
-
-**Seasonal Patterns**
-- Post-earnings window trading (common)
-- Year-end tax-loss selling
-- Quarterly option exercise cycles
-- Annual equity grant patterns
-
-**Red Flag Timing**
-- Trading during supposed blackout periods
-- Selling shortly before bad news announcement
-- Exercising and immediately selling (vs. holding)
-- Rapid succession of sells by multiple insiders
-
-### 8. Pattern Recognition
-
-Identify meaningful patterns in trading activity:
-
-**Bullish Patterns**
-- Clustered buying by multiple insiders within 1-2 weeks
-- First-time purchases by long-tenured executives
-- Buying during period of stock weakness or negative sentiment
-- Insiders increasing position size significantly (>25%)
-- CEO making largest purchase of tenure
-
-**Bearish Patterns**
-- Clustered selling by multiple insiders
-- CEO or CFO selling large percentage of holdings
-- First-time sells by insiders who previously only bought
-- Selling despite stock decline (urgency to exit)
-- Executive departures followed by sales
-
-**Neutral Patterns**
-- Regular quarterly option exercises and sells
-- Small percentage sells for diversification (<5% of holdings)
-- Tax payment share forfeitures
-- Routine 10b5-1 plan executions
-- Gift transfers to family trusts
-
-### 9. Red Flags & Warning Signs
-
-Identify concerning patterns:
-
-**High-Severity Red Flags**
-- CEO or CFO selling >50% of holdings
-- Clustered selling before earnings miss or guidance cut
-- Trading during blackout window
-- Late Form 4 filing (>2 days) without explanation
-- Pattern of selling before negative news
-
-**Medium-Severity Red Flags**
-- Increasing rate of insider selling
-- Multiple executives selling simultaneously
-- Selling despite recent insider buying by others
-- Large sales shortly after option vesting
-- Board member resignations followed by sales
-
-**Context Matters**
-- Insider selling is common and often benign
-- Check for 10b5-1 plans (pre-arranged sales)
-- Consider personal circumstances (divorce, estate planning)
-- Look at historical patterns for that individual
-- Assess whether selling is proportional to holdings
-
-### 10. Data Sources & Research Tools
-
-Reference the following sources for insider trading data:
-
-**Primary Source - SEC EDGAR**
-- Form 4 filings: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&type=4&company=[TICKER]
-- Form 3 filings: Initial beneficial ownership
-- Form 5 filings: Annual statements
-- File within 2 business days of transaction (Form 4)
-
-**Aggregator Websites**
-- **OpenInsider.com**: Free, comprehensive database with filters
-  - Cluster analysis tools
-  - Screeners for significant transactions
-  - Historical data back 10+ years
-
-- **SEC Form 4 Tracker**: Real-time Form 4 monitoring
-- **Finviz Insider**: Basic insider data with visualizations
-- **GuruFocus Insider**: Premium insider analysis
-
-**Premium Tools**
-- **Bloomberg Terminal**: Comprehensive insider data and analytics
-- **FactSet**: Insider transaction database
-- **S&P Capital IQ**: Detailed ownership and transaction data
-
-**Key Data Points to Extract**
-- Insider name and title
-- Transaction date and filing date
-- Shares bought/sold
-- Price per share
-- Shares owned after transaction
-- Transaction code (P, S, M, etc.)
-- Form 4 footnotes (10b5-1 plan indicator)
-
-## Input Formats
-
-### Format 1: Ticker Symbol
-```
-User: /insider-trading AAPL
-
-Claude retrieves recent Form 4 data from SEC EDGAR and analyzes
-```
-
-### Format 2: Specific Time Period
-```
-User: /insider-trading TSLA --period 2024-Q4
-
-Claude focuses on Q4 2024 insider transactions
-```
-
-### Format 3: Custom Data Paste
-```
-User: /insider-trading --data
-
-[Paste Form 4 data table or CSV from OpenInsider/SEC]
-
-Claude analyzes provided data
-```
-
-## Output
-
-Provide comprehensive insider trading analysis report with:
-
-### 1. Executive Summary
-- **Overall Insider Sentiment**: Bullish / Neutral / Bearish
-- **Confidence Level**: High / Medium / Low
-- **Key Takeaways**: 3-5 most important findings
-- **Investment Signal**: Buy / Hold / Sell indication
-- **Time Period Analyzed**: [Date range]
-
-### 2. Transaction Summary Table
-```
-Period: Last 6 Months
-Total Transactions: [N]
-Total Buy Transactions: [N] ($[Amount])
-Total Sell Transactions: [N] ($[Amount])
-Net Insider Activity: $[Amount]
-Net Sentiment Score: [+0.XX or -0.XX]
-```
-
-### 3. Significant Transactions (Top 10)
-Detailed table with context for each major transaction
-
-### 4. Insider Category Breakdown
-Analysis by executive officers, board members, and major shareholders
-
-### 5. Ownership Trend Analysis
-Current ownership % and historical trend (4 quarters)
-
-### 6. Timing & Pattern Analysis
-- Stock price context during trading periods
-- Identified bullish or bearish patterns
-- Seasonal or cyclical factors
-
-### 7. Red Flags & Concerns
-- List any identified warning signs
-- Severity assessment
-- Recommended monitoring
-
-### 8. Comparison to Peers
-Brief comparison of insider sentiment vs. industry peers (if available)
-
-### 9. Historical Context
-- How current activity compares to historical baseline
-- Notable changes in behavior
-- Track record of insider signals
-
-### 10. Investment Implications
-- Overall assessment and confidence level
-- Key bullish factors from insider activity
-- Key bearish factors or concerns
-- Recommended action
-- Monitoring plan for future activity
-
-### 11. Data Sources Used
-- SEC EDGAR filings referenced
-- Date range of analysis
-- Number of Form 4 filings reviewed
-
-## Interpretation Guidelines
-
-### When Insider Buying is STRONGLY Bullish
-1. Multiple insiders buying in 1-2 week period
-2. CEO making unusually large purchase
-3. Buying after significant stock decline (>20%)
-4. Insiders buying with personal cash (not option exercises)
-5. First-time buyers or return to buying after long gap
-
-### When Insider Buying is MODERATELY Bullish
-1. Single insider making meaningful purchase
-2. Regular accumulation pattern
-3. Buying at all-time highs (conviction in further growth)
-4. Board member purchases
-
-### When Insider Selling is LESS Concerning
-1. 10b5-1 pre-arranged plan sales
-2. Small percentage of holdings (<5%)
-3. Regular quarterly pattern
-4. Diversification after large stock appreciation
-5. Tax payments or estate planning
-
-### When Insider Selling is CONCERNING
-1. Clustered selling by multiple executives
-2. CEO/CFO selling >25% of holdings
-3. Selling despite stock decline
-4. No 10b5-1 plan indicated
-5. Selling shortly before negative news
-
-### Signal Reliability Factors
-- **Sample size**: More insiders trading = stronger signal
-- **Magnitude**: Larger $ amounts = stronger signal
-- **Timing**: Unusual timing = stronger signal
-- **Context**: Contrarian trades (buying weakness) = stronger signal
-- **Track record**: Historically accurate insiders = stronger signal
-
-## Usage Examples
-
-### Example 1: Basic Analysis
-```
-User: /insider-trading NVDA
-
-Claude: Pulls the last 6 months of NVDA Form 4 filings and reports net
-open-market buys vs. sells, separates 10b5-1 plan sales from discretionary
-trades, flags clustered buying, and closes with the signal block.
-```
-
-### Example 2: Before Earnings
-```
-User: /insider-trading AAPL --period "before-earnings"
-
-Claude: Examines trading in the 30–60 days before the most recent earnings
-release and states whether anything beyond scheduled 10b5-1 sales occurred.
-```
-
-### Example 3: Red Flag Detection
-```
-User: /insider-trading ABC --focus red-flags
-
-Claude: Checks each red-flag pattern above (large % of holdings sold,
-clustered director exits, selling into a decline) and reports which fired,
-with the filing dates that support each.
-```
-
-## Integration Notes
-
-- Combine with /stock-eval for complete due diligence
-- Use /institutional-ownership for full insider + institutional picture
-- Feed analysis to /report-generator for visual charts of insider activity
-- Best used monthly or after significant insider filing activity
-- Particularly valuable when analyzing small-mid cap stocks (insiders have more edge)
-
-## Standard Signal Output
-
-All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
-
-```
-## Thesis Invalidation
-
-After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
-
-**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- 3+ insiders file Form 4 sells within a 30-day window OR CEO sells >5% of holdings
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- CEO/CFO initiate new purchases >$1M within 30 days
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**Re-run this analysis when:**
-- [ ] Next earnings release
-- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
-- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
-- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
-
-╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
-║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
-║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
-║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
-║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
-║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
-╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
-```
-
-**Score Guide**: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
-**Confidence**: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
-**Horizon**: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
-
-**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
+Loading this file is not reading the skill: the steps, templates, and thresholds exist only
+in the parts above. Say which parts you opened, name the ones you did not, and never report a
+step or a template you have not read in this session.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/references/10-analysis-framework.md

@@ -0,0 +1,185 @@
+# Analysis Framework
+
+Part 1 of 3 for `insider-trading` — Analysis Framework
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Analysis Framework
+
+### 1. Transaction Summary (Last 6-12 Months)
+
+Provide overview of insider trading activity:
+
+**Transaction Counts**
+- Total transactions: [Number]
+- Buys: [Number] ([%] of total)
+- Sells: [Number] ([%] of total)
+- Exercises/Awards: [Number] (non-market transactions)
+
+**Transaction Volume**
+- Total value traded: $[Amount]
+- Buy volume: $[Amount]
+- Sell volume: $[Amount]
+- Net insider sentiment: $[Net Amount] (Buy - Sell)
+
+**Active Period Analysis**
+- Most active month: [Month]
+- Clustered activity periods: [Dates]
+- Quiet periods: [Dates]
+
+### 2. Insider Sentiment Analysis
+
+Calculate and interpret net insider sentiment:
+
+**Net Sentiment Calculation**
+```
+Net Sentiment = (Buy $ - Sell $) / (Buy $ + Sell $)
+
+Ranges:
++0.5 to +1.0  = Strongly Bullish
++0.2 to +0.5  = Moderately Bullish
+-0.2 to +0.2  = Neutral
+-0.5 to -0.2  = Moderately Bearish
+-1.0 to -0.5  = Strongly Bearish
+```
+
+**Sentiment Context**
+- Current sentiment vs. historical baseline
+- Sentiment trend (improving/deteriorating)
+- Significance level (number and size of transactions)
+- Comparison to peer company insiders
+
+**Reliability Factors**
+- Sample size (number of insiders trading)
+- Transaction size relative to holdings
+- Timing relative to information events
+- Consistency across multiple insiders
+
+### 3. Significant Transactions
+
+Highlight meaningful insider trades:
+
+**Criteria for Significance**
+- Transaction size > $1 million
+- Position change > 10% of holdings
+- Unusual timing (near lows/highs, before announcements)
+- CEO or CFO transactions
+- Multiple insiders trading in same direction within short period
+
+**For Each Significant Transaction**
+
+| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value | % of Holdings | Price | Notes |
+|------|---------|----------|-------------|--------|-------|---------------|-------|-------|
+| [Date] | [Name] | [Title] | Buy/Sell | [#] | $[Amount] | [%] | $[Price] | [Context] |
+
+**Transaction Analysis**
+- **Bullish Signals**: Large insider buys, clustered buying, CEO purchases, buying near 52-week lows
+- **Bearish Signals**: Large insider sells, clustered selling, executive selling before bad news
+- **Neutral Signals**: Small routine sells for diversification, 10b5-1 plan executions
+
+### 4. Insider Categories
+
+Analyze transactions by insider role:
+
+**Executive Officers (CEO, CFO, COO)**
+- Highest signal value due to information access
+- Large transactions particularly meaningful
+- Sales less concerning if part of regular compensation
+
+**Board of Directors**
+- Independent directors' purchases carry strong signals
+- Less frequent trading but often meaningful
+- May have strategic visibility beyond operations
+
+**Major Shareholders (>10% owners)**
+- Often have board seats or strategic influence
+- Large transactions can move markets
+- Sales may be for portfolio rebalancing
+
+**Other Insiders (VPs, Senior Managers)**
+- Weaker signal but useful in aggregate
+- Clustered activity more meaningful than individual trades
+- May indicate operational knowledge
+
+### 5. Transaction Types & SEC Forms
+
+Interpret different transaction codes:
+
+**Form 4 Transaction Codes**
+- **P (Purchase)**: Open market buy - BULLISH SIGNAL
+- **S (Sale)**: Open market sell - BEARISH SIGNAL (but often routine)
+- **M (Exercise)**: Option exercise - Neutral
+- **F (Tax Payment)**: Shares surrendered for taxes - Neutral
+- **A (Award)**: Stock grant/award - Neutral
+- **G (Gift)**: Gift transfer - Neutral
+- **D (Disposition)**: Return to company - Neutral
+
+**Form 3 vs. Form 4 vs. Form 5**
+- **Form 3**: Initial statement of beneficial ownership (new insider)
+- **Form 4**: Changes in ownership (filed within 2 business days)
+- **Form 5**: Annual statement of changes (deferred reporting)
+
+**10b5-1 Trading Plans**
+- Pre-arranged trading plans to avoid insider trading allegations
+- Marked in filings if transaction was under 10b5-1
+- Less signal value than discretionary trades
+- Look for plan adoption/termination patterns
+
+### 6. Ownership Trends
+
+Track changes in insider ownership percentage:
+
+**Current Ownership Structure**
+- Total insider ownership: [%]
+- CEO ownership: [%]
+- Top 5 insiders combined: [%]
+
+**Ownership Trend (12 months)**
+```
+Quarter        Total Insider %    Change from Prior
+[Qn YYYY]          [%]              [±%]
+[Qn-1 YYYY]        [%]              [±%]
+[Qn-2 YYYY]        [%]              [±%]
+[Qn-3 YYYY]        [%]              [±%]
+```
+
+**Interpretation**
+- **Increasing ownership**: Insiders accumulating = Bullish
+- **Stable ownership**: Confidence maintained = Neutral to Bullish
+- **Decreasing ownership**: Distribution = Bearish (but check reasons)
+
+**Skin in the Game Assessment**
+- High insider ownership (>20%): Strong alignment
+- Medium ownership (10-20%): Adequate alignment
+- Low ownership (<10%): Weaker alignment
+- CEO ownership relative to compensation
+
+### 7. Timing Analysis
+
+Evaluate timing of insider transactions:
+
+**Relative to Stock Price**
+- Buying near 52-week lows: Strong bullish signal
+- Buying after significant decline: Contrarian confidence
+- Selling near 52-week highs: Less bearish (profit-taking)
+- Selling before decline: Red flag if not disclosed later
+
+**Relative to Information Events**
+- Before earnings release
+- Before major announcements (M&A, product launches)
+- During blackout periods (should be restricted)
+- After significant news (reaction to public information)
+
+**Seasonal Patterns**
+- Post-earnings window trading (common)
+- Year-end tax-loss selling
+- Quarterly option exercise cycles
+- Annual equity grant patterns
+
+**Red Flag Timing**
+- Trading during supposed blackout periods
+- Selling shortly before bad news announcement
+- Exercising and immediately selling (vs. holding)
+- Rapid succession of sells by multiple insiders
+
+
+This section is not finished here: `Analysis Framework` continues in `references/11-pattern-recognition.md`.