@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.12 → 2.8.0

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/SKILL.md

@@ -40,601 +40,18 @@ Data & Sources
 
 Derive a rigorous intrinsic value estimate using multiple independent valuation methodologies, then triangulate to a single probability-weighted target price. Never rely on a single method — cross-validation across DCF, comparable company analysis (CCA), EV/EBITDA, and residual income models builds conviction and exposes assumption fragility.
 
-## Overview
+## Read the Parts
 
-Valuation is an art grounded in financial science. Each method has strengths and weaknesses depending on the business type, stage of maturity, and data availability. This skill applies four to five valuation methods, then reconciles them into a football field chart to show the implied value range. Wherever there is consensus across methods, conviction is high. Where methods diverge significantly, that gap tells you something important about market expectations.
+Everything below the surface of this file lives in `references/`. **whole, with no line window** — quoting a rule or a template out of a slice of one is how a
+file gets reported as read when it was only skimmed. The file names below are the only
+addressing this entry has.
 
----
-
-## When to Use Each Method
-
-```
-Valuation Method          Best For                           Avoid For
-────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-DCF (Free Cash Flow)      Mature, FCF-positive businesses    Pre-revenue, banks, REITs
-Comparable Company (CCA)  Any publicly traded company        No good public comps
-EV/EBITDA Multiple        Capital-intensive industrials      Asset-light, high-SBC tech
-Price/Earnings (P/E)      Stable earnings businesses         Negative earnings
-Price/Sales (P/S)         Revenue-stage growth companies     Mature high-margin businesses
-EV/Revenue                High-growth, low-margin SaaS       Mature, cyclical businesses
-Residual Income (RI)      Financial companies, book-value    Asset-light businesses
-Dividend Discount (DDM)   Dividend-paying value stocks       Growth stocks, no dividend
-Asset-Based NAV           Real estate, holding companies     Operating businesses
-────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-```
-
----
-
-## Method 1: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
-
-### Step 1: Base Financial Metrics
-
-Collect trailing twelve months (TTM) data:
-
-```
-Base Metrics:
-  Revenue (TTM):                    $___M
-  Operating Cash Flow (TTM):        $___M
-  Capital Expenditures (TTM):       $___M
-  Free Cash Flow (TTM):             $___M  (OCF - Capex)
-  FCF Margin (TTM):                 ___%
-  Stock-Based Compensation (TTM):   $___M
-  True Economic FCF (SBC-adjusted): $___M
-  Diluted Shares Outstanding:       ___M
-  Net Debt / (Net Cash):            $___M
-  Effective Tax Rate:               ___%
-```
-
-### Step 2: Three-Scenario Projections (10-Year)
-
-```
-Scenario Assumptions:
-                        Bull        Base        Bear
-Probability:            20%         60%         20%
-Revenue CAGR Y1-5:      ___%        ___%        ___%
-Revenue CAGR Y6-10:     ___%        ___%        ___%
-FCF Margin Y5:          ___%        ___%        ___%
-FCF Margin Y10:         ___%        ___%        ___%
-WACC:                   ___%        ___%        ___%
-Terminal Growth Rate:   ___%        ___%        ___%
-```
-
-### Step 3: WACC Calculation
-
-```
-Cost of Equity (CAPM):
-  Risk-Free Rate (10Y Treasury):  ___%
-  Beta (5-year monthly):          ___
-  Equity Risk Premium:            ___%
-  Size Premium (if applicable):   ___%
-  Cost of Equity:                 ___% = Rf + β × ERP + Size
-
-Cost of Debt:
-  Interest Expense (TTM):         $___M
-  Total Debt:                     $___M
-  Effective Interest Rate:        ___%
-  Tax Rate:                       ___%
-  After-Tax Cost of Debt:         ___%
-
-Capital Structure:
-  Equity Market Cap:              $___M
-  Total Debt:                     $___M
-  E/V (Equity Weight):            ___%
-  D/V (Debt Weight):              ___%
-
-WACC = Ke × (E/V) + Kd × (D/V) = ___%
-```
-
-### Step 4: DCF Valuation Table
-
-```
-10-Year FCF Projection (Base Case):
-Year    Revenue ($M)    FCF Margin%    FCF ($M)    Discount Factor    PV of FCF ($M)
-1       ___             ___%           ___         ___                ___
-2       ___             ___%           ___         ___                ___
-3       ___             ___%           ___         ___                ___
-4       ___             ___%           ___         ___                ___
-5       ___             ___%           ___         ___                ___
-6       ___             ___%           ___         ___                ___
-7       ___             ___%           ___         ___                ___
-8       ___             ___%           ___         ___                ___
-9       ___             ___%           ___         ___                ___
-10      ___             ___%           ___         ___                ___
-────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-Sum of PV (FCF 1-10):                                                ___
-Terminal Value = FCF10 × (1+g) / (WACC-g):                          ___
-PV of Terminal Value:                                                ___
-Enterprise Value:                                                    ___
-Less: Net Debt:                                                      ___
-Equity Value:                                                        ___
-Diluted Shares:                                                      ___M
-DCF Intrinsic Value per Share:                                       $___
-TV as % of EV (flag if >75%):                                        ___%
-```
-
-### Step 5: Sensitivity Table
-
-```
-Intrinsic Value per Share — WACC vs. Terminal Growth Rate
-              Terminal Growth Rate
-WACC     1.0%     1.5%     2.0%     2.5%     3.0%
-6.0%     $___     $___     $___     $___     $___
-7.0%     $___     $___     $___     $___     $___
-8.0%     $___     $___     $___     $___     $___   ← Base Case
-9.0%     $___     $___     $___     $___     $___
-10.0%    $___     $___     $___     $___     $___
-```
-
----
-
-## Method 2: Comparable Company Analysis (CCA)
-
-Select 5–8 comparable public companies based on:
-- Same industry and sub-industry
-- Similar business model (SaaS vs. perpetual license, etc.)
-- Similar growth profile (high-growth vs. mature)
-- Similar size (market cap within 0.5–2.0x range preferred)
-
-### Comparable Company Table
-
-```
-Comparable Company Multiples:
-Company    Mkt Cap    EV/Rev    EV/EBITDA    P/E (FWD)    P/FCF    EV/FCF    Rev Growth%    EBITDA Mg%
-Target     ___        ___       ___          ___          ___      ___       ___%           ___%
-Peer 1     ___        ___       ___          ___          ___      ___       ___%           ___%
-Peer 2     ___        ___       ___          ___          ___      ___       ___%           ___%
-Peer 3     ___        ___       ___          ___          ___      ___       ___%           ___%
-Peer 4     ___        ___       ___          ___          ___      ___       ___%           ___%
-Peer 5     ___        ___       ___          ___          ___      ___       ___%           ___%
-───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-Peer Mean  ___        ___       ___          ___          ___      ___       ___%           ___%
-Peer Median___        ___       ___          ___          ___      ___       ___%           ___%
-```
-
-### CCA Implied Value
-
-Apply peer median multiples to the target's metrics:
-
-```
-CCA Valuation:
-Metric          Target Value    Peer Median Multiple    Implied EV ($M)    Implied Price    Weight
-EV/Revenue      $___M Rev       ___x                    $___               $___             25%
-EV/EBITDA       $___M EBITDA    ___x                    $___               $___             25%
-P/E (Forward)   $___  EPS       ___x                    n/a (equity)       $___             25%
-EV/FCF          $___M FCF       ___x                    $___               $___             25%
-──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-EV-based rows: Implied Price = (Implied EV − Net Debt − Minority Interest + Non-operating Assets) ÷ Diluted Shares
-P/E row:       Implied Price = Peer Median P/E × Target EPS   (already a per-share equity value — no EV bridge)
-The weighted average below is taken over the Implied Price column only.
-CCA Weighted Average Implied Price:                      $___
-Premium/Discount Applied (for size, quality):            ±___%
-CCA Adjusted Implied Price:                              $___
-```
-
-**Premium/Discount Adjustment Factors:**
-- Apply a +10–20% premium if the target has: superior growth, higher margins, stronger balance sheet
-- Apply a -10–25% discount if: smaller/less liquid, weaker fundamentals, regulatory overhang
-
----
-
-## Method 3: EV/EBITDA Multiple Valuation
-
-Simple multiple-based valuation used primarily as a sanity check:
-
-```
-EV/EBITDA Valuation:
-  TTM EBITDA:                    $___M
-  Forward EBITDA (NTM):          $___M
-  Historical EV/EBITDA Average:  ___x  (5-year own history)
-  Peer Median EV/EBITDA:         ___x
-  Sector Median EV/EBITDA:       ___x
-
-  Conservative Multiple (peer discount): ___x
-  Base Multiple (peer median):           ___x
-  Premium Multiple (peer premium):       ___x
-
-  Conservative Implied EV:       $___M  → Per Share: $___
-  Base Implied EV:               $___M  → Per Share: $___
-  Premium Implied EV:            $___M  → Per Share: $___
-
-  Net Debt/(Cash):               $___M
-  Shares Outstanding:            ___M
-```
-
----
-
-## Method 4: Price/Earnings (P/E) Valuation
-
-For companies with stable, growing earnings:
-
-```
-P/E Valuation:
-  TTM GAAP EPS:                  $___
-  NTM Consensus EPS:             $___
-  2-Year Forward EPS:            $___
-
-  Historical P/E Average (5yr):  ___x
-  Peer Median P/E (NTM):         ___x
-  S&P 500 P/E (NTM):             ___x   [for context]
-
-  PEG Ratio (NTM P/E / Growth):  ___    [<1.0 = undervalued, >2.0 = expensive]
-
-  Conservative P/E (10% discount to peer): ___x → Implied Price: $___
-  Base P/E (peer median):                  ___x → Implied Price: $___
-  Premium P/E (10% premium to peer):       ___x → Implied Price: $___
-```
-
----
-
-## Method 5: Residual Income / Economic Value Added
-
-For financial companies or businesses where book value is meaningful:
-
-```
-Residual Income Model:
-  Book Value per Share (current):        $___
-  Cost of Equity (Ke):                   ___%
-  Expected ROE (avg next 5 years):       ___%
-  Residual Income (ROE - Ke) × BV:       $___
-
-  Justified P/B = 1 + (ROE - Ke) / (Ke - g)
-                = 1 + (___ - ___) / (___ - ___)
-                = ___x
-
-  Book Value per Share:                  $___
-  Justified P/B:                         ___x
-  Residual Income Implied Price:         $___
-```
-
----
-
-## Football Field Summary — Valuation Range
-
-Present all methods together in a football field chart:
-
-```
-Football Field Valuation Summary — [TICKER]
-Current Market Price: $___
-
-Method                      Bear (Low)    Base (Mid)    Bull (High)    Confidence
-────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-DCF — Bear/Base/Bull         $___          $___          $___           HIGH/MED/LOW
-CCA — Peer Multiples         $___          $___          $___           HIGH/MED/LOW
-EV/EBITDA Multiple           $___          $___          $___           HIGH/MED/LOW
-P/E Multiple                 $___          $___          $___           HIGH/MED/LOW
-Residual Income (if used)    $___          $___          $___           HIGH/MED/LOW
-52-Week Range                $___          ─────────     $___           [Market]
-Analyst Consensus            $___          $___          $___           [Street]
-────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-COMPOSITE INTRINSIC VALUE    $___          $___          $___
-
-Visual Football Field:
-$[low] |────────[bear range]────|────────[base range]────|────────[bull range]────| $[high]
-                                              ▲
-                                       Current Price $___
-```
-
-### Composite Valuation Calculation
-
-```
-Method Weighting (adjust based on applicable methods):
-  DCF Valuation:              ___% weight    Implied: $___
-  CCA (Comps):                ___% weight    Implied: $___
-  EV/EBITDA Multiple:         ___% weight    Implied: $___
-  P/E Multiple:               ___% weight    Implied: $___
-  Residual Income:            ___% weight    Implied: $___
-  ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-  Composite Weighted IV:                     $___
-  Current Market Price:                      $___
-  Margin of Safety:                          ___%  (discount to IV)
-  Upside/Downside Potential:                 ___%
-```
-
----
-
-## Margin of Safety Framework
-
-```
-Margin of Safety = (Intrinsic Value − Market Price) / Intrinsic Value × 100%
-
-Assessment:
->30% discount to IV    → Compelling value — strong margin of safety
-10–30% discount        → Fair value — reasonable entry
-0–10% discount         → Fairly priced — limited margin of safety
-10–30% premium         → Slightly expensive — requires growth conviction
->30% premium           → Expensive — priced for perfection
->50% premium           → Very expensive — significant risk of multiple compression
-
-Investor Type Minimums:
-  Deep Value:       25–35% margin of safety required
-  GARP:             10–20% margin of safety
-  Growth:           0–10% (or slight premium for high-quality growth)
-  Momentum:         Not applicable
-```
-
----
-
-## Risk-Adjusted Expected Return
-
-Calculate the expected return across scenarios:
-
-```
-Expected Return Analysis:
-Scenario    Probability    Price Target    Return vs. Current    Expected Return
-────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-Bull         ___%           $___           +___%                 ___% contribution
-Base         ___%           $___           +/-___%               ___% contribution
-Bear         ___%           $___           -___%                 ___% contribution
-────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-Probability-Weighted Expected Return:                            ___%
-
-Risk/Reward Ratio:  [Bull upside] / [Bear downside] = ___x
-(Good investments typically offer 3:1 or better risk/reward)
-```
-
----
-
-## Analyst Consensus vs. Intrinsic Value
-
-```
-Street vs. Model Comparison:
-  Analyst Consensus Target (Mean):    $___
-  Analyst Consensus Target (High):    $___
-  Analyst Consensus Target (Low):     $___
-  # Analysts covering:                ___
-  Buy / Hold / Sell ratings:          ___ / ___ / ___
-
-  Our Composite IV:                   $___
-  vs. Consensus Mean:                 ___% [premium/discount]
-
-  Interpretation:
-  - Model > Consensus: Market may be underestimating growth/margin potential
-  - Model < Consensus: Street may be pricing in too-optimistic assumptions
-  - Large divergence: Investigate the key assumption difference
-```
-
----
-
-## Deep DCF Modeling
-
-This section provides the full step-by-step DCF construction methodology for analysts who need a more rigorous, first-principles build. Use this when the quick DCF in Method 1 above requires deeper documentation, when running a standalone DCF, or when preparing material for an investment committee.
-
-### Revenue Growth — Multi-Anchor Approach
-
-Use multiple anchors to triangulate a defensible growth assumption:
-
-- **Segment approach**: Project each revenue segment separately when possible (e.g., services vs. hardware, cloud vs. on-prem, international vs. domestic)
-- **Historical growth analysis**: 3yr, 5yr, and 10yr revenue CAGR as a baseline anchor
-- **Analyst consensus estimates**: Use sell-side consensus for years 1–3 as a cross-check
-- **Management guidance**: Forward revenue guidance and long-term targets from earnings calls and investor days
-- **Industry growth rate**: Use as a ceiling anchor (a company cannot sustainably grow faster than its industry forever)
-- **Growth tapering**: Apply higher growth in years 1–5, decelerating in years 6–10 toward the terminal growth rate
-
-### FCF Margin Construction
-
-Project future FCF margins based on operating leverage and business model dynamics:
-
-- **Historical FCF margin trend** (expanding, stable, or compressing — identify the driver)
-- **Operating leverage potential**: As revenue scales, what fixed costs are being leveraged? (R&D, G&A, sales infrastructure)
-- **Capex intensity** (% of revenue): Is capex increasing (scaling infrastructure) or decreasing (mature asset base)?
-- **Working capital changes**: Is the company a working capital consumer or generator? (subscription businesses often generate WC)
-- **Normalize for one-time items**: Strip out litigation settlements, asset sale gains, restructuring charges
-- **SBC adjustment**: Subtract SBC from reported operating cash flow to get true economic FCF
-
-### Terminal Value — Two Methods
-
-Terminal value represents all cash flows beyond the 10-year explicit forecast period:
-
-- **Terminal growth rate (g)**: Typically 2–3% (anchored to nominal GDP growth). Never set g > WACC — this implies infinite value
-- **Gordon Growth Model (preferred)**:
-  ```
-  TV = FCF₁₀ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)
-  ```
-- **Exit Multiple Method (alternative)**:
-  ```
-  TV = FCFₙ × (EV / FCF exit multiple)
-  ```
-  Use industry-appropriate EV/FCF multiples from comparable mature companies
-- **Terminal value as % of Enterprise Value**: If TV > 80% of total EV, the model is highly sensitive to terminal assumptions. Flag this explicitly and widen the sensitivity range
-
-### WACC Decomposition Table
-
-Complete WACC build with component-level transparency:
-
-```
-WACC Decomposition
-──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-Component                          Value      Notes
-──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-Risk-Free Rate (Rf)                ___%       10-year US Treasury yield
-Beta (β)                           ___        5-year monthly vs. S&P 500
-Equity Risk Premium (ERP)          ___%       Damodaran estimate (5–6%)
-Size Premium                       ___%       0–2% for small/mid-cap
-──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-Cost of Equity  Ke = Rf + β×ERP + Size       ___%
-──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-Interest Expense (TTM)             $___M
-Total Debt                         $___M
-Pre-tax Cost of Debt               ___%
-Effective Tax Rate                 ___%
-──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-After-Tax Cost of Debt  Kd×(1−t)             ___%
-──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-Equity Market Cap (E)              $___M
-Total Debt (D)                     $___M
-E/V (Equity Weight)                ___%       Market value weights
-D/V (Debt Weight)                  ___%       Market value weights
-──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-WACC = Ke×(E/V) + Kd×(D/V)                  ___%
-──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-
-Typical WACC Ranges by Risk Profile:
-Risk Profile         WACC Range    Company Examples
-─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-Low risk (utility)   6–8%          Regulated utilities, large cap staples
-Medium risk          8–11%         Large cap tech, established growth
-High risk            11–15%        Small cap, emerging market, cyclical
-Very high risk       15–20%+       Early-stage, distressed, pre-revenue
-```
-
-### Three-Scenario Model — Full Detail
-
-Always present three scenarios with explicit assumption differences and probability-weighted output:
-
-```
-Three-Scenario DCF Framework
-Scenario    Probability    Revenue CAGR (Y1-5)    FCF Margin (Y5)    WACC    Terminal g
-Bull         20%           [higher growth]         [higher margin]    [lower]  [2.5%]
-Base         60%           [consensus growth]      [stable margin]    [base]   [2.0%]
-Bear         20%           [lower growth]          [compressed]       [higher] [1.5%]
-
-Scenario Narratives:
-  Bull Case:  Favorable macro, market share gains, operating leverage, margin expansion
-  Base Case:  Historical trend continuation, modest improvement in line with guidance
-  Bear Case:  Competitive pressure, margin compression, macro headwinds, execution risk
-
-Intrinsic Value Output:
-  Bull Case IV:    $[value]
-  Base Case IV:    $[value]
-  Bear Case IV:    $[value]
-
-Probability-Weighted IV = (20% × Bull IV) + (60% × Base IV) + (20% × Bear IV) = $[value]
-```
-
-The probability-weighted IV is the primary output used for investment decision-making.
-
-### 5×5 Sensitivity Table — Interpretation Guide
-
-```
-Sensitivity Table — Intrinsic Value per Share ($)
-
-              Terminal Growth Rate
-WACC     1.0%    1.5%    2.0%    2.5%    3.0%
-6.0%     $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx
-7.0%     $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx
-8.0%     $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx  ← Base Case
-9.0%     $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx
-10.0%    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx
-
-[*] Shaded cell = Base Case assumption
-```
-
-Interpretation guide:
-- If the **entire table** shows a margin of safety vs. current price → high confidence in undervaluation
-- If **only a few cells** show margin of safety → valuation depends critically on specific assumptions
-- If **no cells** show margin of safety → stock is expensive under all reasonable DCF scenarios
-
-### Common DCF Pitfalls
-
-1. **Garbage in, garbage out**: Extrapolating recent high-growth rates too far into the future. Be conservative, especially in years 6–10.
-2. **Terminal value dominance**: If TV > 70% of enterprise value, the model is more speculation than analysis. Stress-test terminal assumptions aggressively.
-3. **WACC too low**: Using a WACC below the risk-free rate, or ignoring size/liquidity premiums for smaller companies, artificially inflates intrinsic value.
-4. **Ignoring cyclicality**: Using peak FCF margins as the base for a cyclical business. Always normalize FCF through a full business cycle.
-5. **Ignoring stock-based compensation**: SBC is a real, dilutive cost. Subtract it from operating cash flow when calculating true economic FCF.
-6. **Single scenario thinking**: Presenting only a base case. Always run Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios with explicit assumption differences.
-7. **Hidden working capital and capex changes**: Rapidly growing companies often consume significant working capital. Ensure this drag is reflected in FCF projections, not hidden in operating cash flow.
-8. **Currency and geographic mix**: For international businesses, project by geography and apply appropriate discount rates by region.
-
-### When DCF Is (and Isn't) the Right Tool
-
-**When DCF is most reliable**:
-- Stable, mature businesses with predictable, consistent FCF
-- Asset-light businesses with high FCF conversion (e.g., software, consumer brands)
-- Companies with 10+ years of FCF generation history
-- Businesses where future cash flows are reasonably bounded (regulated utilities, subscription SaaS)
-
-**When DCF is less reliable (use relative valuation instead)**:
-- Early-stage growth companies with no positive FCF yet — value lies in future optionality
-- Highly cyclical businesses where normalizing FCF requires significant judgment
-- Financial companies (banks, insurance, REITs) — use Price/Book, Price/Earnings, or dividend discount models instead
-- Companies with lumpy or unpredictable capex cycles
-- Turnaround situations where the path to profitability is uncertain
-
----
-
-## Input Formats
-
-```bash
-# Auto-calculate from public financial data
-/stock-valuation AAPL
-
-# Specify methods to use
-/stock-valuation MSFT --methods dcf,cca,ev-ebitda
-
-# Full multi-method analysis with visual output
-/stock-valuation NVDA --full --visual
-
-# Quick single-method valuation
-/stock-valuation GOOGL --method dcf --quick
-
-# Custom assumption overrides
-/stock-valuation AMZN --growth 15% --wacc 9% --terminal 2.5%
-
-# Compare multiple stocks
-/stock-valuation AAPL,MSFT,GOOGL --compare
-
-# With peer set specification
-/stock-valuation META --peers SNAP,PINS,TWTR,RDDT
-```
-
----
-
-## Output Summary
-
-Complete valuation report including:
-
-1. **Business Summary**: One-paragraph description of the business model and competitive position
-2. **Method Selection Rationale**: Why each method was selected or excluded
-3. **DCF Analysis**: Full 10-year projections, WACC decomposition, sensitivity table (3 scenarios)
-4. **Comparable Company Analysis**: Peer table with multiples and implied values
-5. **Multiple-Based Valuations**: EV/EBITDA, P/E, P/FCF implied ranges
-6. **Football Field Chart**: Visual range of all methods
-7. **Composite Intrinsic Value**: Weighted average across all methods
-8. **Margin of Safety Assessment**: Discount/premium to current price
-9. **Risk-Adjusted Expected Return**: Scenario-weighted expected return calculation
-10. **Key Valuation Risks**: What assumptions could most materially change the outcome
-11. **Analyst Consensus Comparison**: How model compares to Street consensus
-
----
-
-## Standard Signal Output
-
-All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
-
-```
-## Thesis Invalidation
-
-After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
-
-**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- intrinsic value declines >20% on updated assumptions OR multiple compression vs. peers worsens
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- all 5 valuation methods show >20% upside at current price simultaneously
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**Re-run this analysis when:**
-- [ ] Next earnings release
-- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
-- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
-- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
-
-╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
-║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
-║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
-║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
-║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
-║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
-╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
-```
-
-Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
-Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
-Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+- `references/10-overview.md` — Overview; When to Use Each Method; Method 1: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
+- `references/11-method-2-comparable-company.md` — Method 2: Comparable Company Analysis (CCA); Method 3: EV/EBITDA Multiple Valuation; Method 4: Price/Earnings (P/E) Valuation; Method 5: Residual Income / Economic Value Added
+- `references/12-football-field-summary-valuation.md` — Football Field Summary — Valuation Range; Margin of Safety Framework; Risk-Adjusted Expected Return; Analyst Consensus vs. Intrinsic Value; Deep DCF Modeling
+- `references/13-terminal-value-two-methods.md` — (continued) Deep DCF Modeling
+- `references/14-when-dcf-is.md` — (continued) Deep DCF Modeling; Input Formats; Output Summary; Standard Signal Output; Thesis Invalidation
 
-**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
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