@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.0 → 2.7.2

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: insider-trading
+description: Track and analyze insider buying/selling activity from SEC Form 4 filings
+---
+
+# Insider Trading Analysis
+
+## ⚠️ Data Verification — Do This Before Any Analysis
+
+Before running any analysis, always retrieve the latest market data for the ticker:
+
+1. **Fetch current price** — get the live price, 52-week range, and market cap through the host's own data path. In a host that splits roles, delegate the request with an exact brief (ticker, fields, as-of date) rather than searching from this step. Never assume a price from training data.
+2. **Confirm key figures** — recent earnings, revenue, key ratios (P/E, P/S, etc.) as applicable to this skill.
+3. **State your data source** — fill in the `Data & Sources` header (next section) so the origin, as-of date, retrieval path, and confidence of every figure are explicit at the top of the output.
+4. **Stop on missing data** — if a figure cannot be retrieved through the host's data path, name what is missing and stop; the analysis does not run on remembered values:
+
+> ⚠️ **Data unavailable.** <list the figures this analysis could not retrieve>. Those fields are reported as missing and are not estimated — retrieval is a precondition, not a nicety.
+
+Never substitute a remembered value for a retrieved one. Getting the number is the host data path's job — delegate it; asking the user to paste is the last resort only where the host has no retrieval path at all.
+
+---
+
+## 📋 Data & Sources Header — Open Every Output With It
+
+The first thing in the output is this provenance block, filled in — never left as placeholders. It is the standard documented on the [Data & Accuracy](https://yennanliu.github.io/InvestSkill/data-and-accuracy.html) page and the first thing `result-validator` looks for:
+
+```
+Data & Sources
+  As of:      <date the figures represent, e.g. 2026-06-30>
+  Source:     <primary docs — SEC EDGAR 10-K/10-Q, company IR, FRED, exchange data …>
+  Retrieval:  <delegated retrieval | web/tool retrieval | pasted by user>
+  Confidence: <HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW>
+```
+
+- Memory is not a retrieval path. A figure that was neither retrieved nor supplied by the user is reported as missing, never estimated — and never written into this block as if it had been retrieved.
+- Mixed sources: list each with its own as-of date rather than blending them.
+- Data the user pasted is reported as `pasted by user`; do not upgrade its confidence beyond what the user's own source supports.
+
+---
+
+Comprehensive analysis of insider transaction activity to identify investment signals, patterns, and potential red flags from SEC Form 4 filings.
+
+## Analysis Framework
+
+### 1. Transaction Summary (Last 6-12 Months)
+
+Provide overview of insider trading activity:
+
+**Transaction Counts**
+- Total transactions: [Number]
+- Buys: [Number] ([%] of total)
+- Sells: [Number] ([%] of total)
+- Exercises/Awards: [Number] (non-market transactions)
+
+**Transaction Volume**
+- Total value traded: $[Amount]
+- Buy volume: $[Amount]
+- Sell volume: $[Amount]
+- Net insider sentiment: $[Net Amount] (Buy - Sell)
+
+**Active Period Analysis**
+- Most active month: [Month]
+- Clustered activity periods: [Dates]
+- Quiet periods: [Dates]
+
+### 2. Insider Sentiment Analysis
+
+Calculate and interpret net insider sentiment:
+
+**Net Sentiment Calculation**
+```
+Net Sentiment = (Buy $ - Sell $) / (Buy $ + Sell $)
+
+Ranges:
++0.5 to +1.0  = Strongly Bullish
++0.2 to +0.5  = Moderately Bullish
+-0.2 to +0.2  = Neutral
+-0.5 to -0.2  = Moderately Bearish
+-1.0 to -0.5  = Strongly Bearish
+```
+
+**Sentiment Context**
+- Current sentiment vs. historical baseline
+- Sentiment trend (improving/deteriorating)
+- Significance level (number and size of transactions)
+- Comparison to peer company insiders
+
+**Reliability Factors**
+- Sample size (number of insiders trading)
+- Transaction size relative to holdings
+- Timing relative to information events
+- Consistency across multiple insiders
+
+### 3. Significant Transactions
+
+Highlight meaningful insider trades:
+
+**Criteria for Significance**
+- Transaction size > $1 million
+- Position change > 10% of holdings
+- Unusual timing (near lows/highs, before announcements)
+- CEO or CFO transactions
+- Multiple insiders trading in same direction within short period
+
+**For Each Significant Transaction**
+
+| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value | % of Holdings | Price | Notes |
+|------|---------|----------|-------------|--------|-------|---------------|-------|-------|
+| [Date] | [Name] | [Title] | Buy/Sell | [#] | $[Amount] | [%] | $[Price] | [Context] |
+
+**Transaction Analysis**
+- **Bullish Signals**: Large insider buys, clustered buying, CEO purchases, buying near 52-week lows
+- **Bearish Signals**: Large insider sells, clustered selling, executive selling before bad news
+- **Neutral Signals**: Small routine sells for diversification, 10b5-1 plan executions
+
+### 4. Insider Categories
+
+Analyze transactions by insider role:
+
+**Executive Officers (CEO, CFO, COO)**
+- Highest signal value due to information access
+- Large transactions particularly meaningful
+- Sales less concerning if part of regular compensation
+
+**Board of Directors**
+- Independent directors' purchases carry strong signals
+- Less frequent trading but often meaningful
+- May have strategic visibility beyond operations
+
+**Major Shareholders (>10% owners)**
+- Often have board seats or strategic influence
+- Large transactions can move markets
+- Sales may be for portfolio rebalancing
+
+**Other Insiders (VPs, Senior Managers)**
+- Weaker signal but useful in aggregate
+- Clustered activity more meaningful than individual trades
+- May indicate operational knowledge
+
+### 5. Transaction Types & SEC Forms
+
+Interpret different transaction codes:
+
+**Form 4 Transaction Codes**
+- **P (Purchase)**: Open market buy - BULLISH SIGNAL
+- **S (Sale)**: Open market sell - BEARISH SIGNAL (but often routine)
+- **M (Exercise)**: Option exercise - Neutral
+- **F (Tax Payment)**: Shares surrendered for taxes - Neutral
+- **A (Award)**: Stock grant/award - Neutral
+- **G (Gift)**: Gift transfer - Neutral
+- **D (Disposition)**: Return to company - Neutral
+
+**Form 3 vs. Form 4 vs. Form 5**
+- **Form 3**: Initial statement of beneficial ownership (new insider)
+- **Form 4**: Changes in ownership (filed within 2 business days)
+- **Form 5**: Annual statement of changes (deferred reporting)
+
+**10b5-1 Trading Plans**
+- Pre-arranged trading plans to avoid insider trading allegations
+- Marked in filings if transaction was under 10b5-1
+- Less signal value than discretionary trades
+- Look for plan adoption/termination patterns
+
+### 6. Ownership Trends
+
+Track changes in insider ownership percentage:
+
+**Current Ownership Structure**
+- Total insider ownership: [%]
+- CEO ownership: [%]
+- Top 5 insiders combined: [%]
+
+**Ownership Trend (12 months)**
+```
+Quarter        Total Insider %    Change from Prior
+[Qn YYYY]          [%]              [±%]
+[Qn-1 YYYY]        [%]              [±%]
+[Qn-2 YYYY]        [%]              [±%]
+[Qn-3 YYYY]        [%]              [±%]
+```
+
+**Interpretation**
+- **Increasing ownership**: Insiders accumulating = Bullish
+- **Stable ownership**: Confidence maintained = Neutral to Bullish
+- **Decreasing ownership**: Distribution = Bearish (but check reasons)
+
+**Skin in the Game Assessment**
+- High insider ownership (>20%): Strong alignment
+- Medium ownership (10-20%): Adequate alignment
+- Low ownership (<10%): Weaker alignment
+- CEO ownership relative to compensation
+
+### 7. Timing Analysis
+
+Evaluate timing of insider transactions:
+
+**Relative to Stock Price**
+- Buying near 52-week lows: Strong bullish signal
+- Buying after significant decline: Contrarian confidence
+- Selling near 52-week highs: Less bearish (profit-taking)
+- Selling before decline: Red flag if not disclosed later
+
+**Relative to Information Events**
+- Before earnings release
+- Before major announcements (M&A, product launches)
+- During blackout periods (should be restricted)
+- After significant news (reaction to public information)
+
+**Seasonal Patterns**
+- Post-earnings window trading (common)
+- Year-end tax-loss selling
+- Quarterly option exercise cycles
+- Annual equity grant patterns
+
+**Red Flag Timing**
+- Trading during supposed blackout periods
+- Selling shortly before bad news announcement
+- Exercising and immediately selling (vs. holding)
+- Rapid succession of sells by multiple insiders
+
+### 8. Pattern Recognition
+
+Identify meaningful patterns in trading activity:
+
+**Bullish Patterns**
+- Clustered buying by multiple insiders within 1-2 weeks
+- First-time purchases by long-tenured executives
+- Buying during period of stock weakness or negative sentiment
+- Insiders increasing position size significantly (>25%)
+- CEO making largest purchase of tenure
+
+**Bearish Patterns**
+- Clustered selling by multiple insiders
+- CEO or CFO selling large percentage of holdings
+- First-time sells by insiders who previously only bought
+- Selling despite stock decline (urgency to exit)
+- Executive departures followed by sales
+
+**Neutral Patterns**
+- Regular quarterly option exercises and sells
+- Small percentage sells for diversification (<5% of holdings)
+- Tax payment share forfeitures
+- Routine 10b5-1 plan executions
+- Gift transfers to family trusts
+
+### 9. Red Flags & Warning Signs
+
+Identify concerning patterns:
+
+**High-Severity Red Flags**
+- CEO or CFO selling >50% of holdings
+- Clustered selling before earnings miss or guidance cut
+- Trading during blackout window
+- Late Form 4 filing (>2 days) without explanation
+- Pattern of selling before negative news
+
+**Medium-Severity Red Flags**
+- Increasing rate of insider selling
+- Multiple executives selling simultaneously
+- Selling despite recent insider buying by others
+- Large sales shortly after option vesting
+- Board member resignations followed by sales
+
+**Context Matters**
+- Insider selling is common and often benign
+- Check for 10b5-1 plans (pre-arranged sales)
+- Consider personal circumstances (divorce, estate planning)
+- Look at historical patterns for that individual
+- Assess whether selling is proportional to holdings
+
+### 10. Data Sources & Research Tools
+
+Reference the following sources for insider trading data:
+
+**Primary Source - SEC EDGAR**
+- Form 4 filings: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&type=4&company=[TICKER]
+- Form 3 filings: Initial beneficial ownership
+- Form 5 filings: Annual statements
+- File within 2 business days of transaction (Form 4)
+
+**Aggregator Websites**
+- **OpenInsider.com**: Free, comprehensive database with filters
+  - Cluster analysis tools
+  - Screeners for significant transactions
+  - Historical data back 10+ years
+
+- **SEC Form 4 Tracker**: Real-time Form 4 monitoring
+- **Finviz Insider**: Basic insider data with visualizations
+- **GuruFocus Insider**: Premium insider analysis
+
+**Premium Tools**
+- **Bloomberg Terminal**: Comprehensive insider data and analytics
+- **FactSet**: Insider transaction database
+- **S&P Capital IQ**: Detailed ownership and transaction data
+
+**Key Data Points to Extract**
+- Insider name and title
+- Transaction date and filing date
+- Shares bought/sold
+- Price per share
+- Shares owned after transaction
+- Transaction code (P, S, M, etc.)
+- Form 4 footnotes (10b5-1 plan indicator)
+
+## Input Formats
+
+### Format 1: Ticker Symbol
+```
+User: /insider-trading AAPL
+
+Claude retrieves recent Form 4 data from SEC EDGAR and analyzes
+```
+
+### Format 2: Specific Time Period
+```
+User: /insider-trading TSLA --period 2024-Q4
+
+Claude focuses on Q4 2024 insider transactions
+```
+
+### Format 3: Custom Data Paste
+```
+User: /insider-trading --data
+
+[Paste Form 4 data table or CSV from OpenInsider/SEC]
+
+Claude analyzes provided data
+```
+
+## Output
+
+Provide comprehensive insider trading analysis report with:
+
+### 1. Executive Summary
+- **Overall Insider Sentiment**: Bullish / Neutral / Bearish
+- **Confidence Level**: High / Medium / Low
+- **Key Takeaways**: 3-5 most important findings
+- **Investment Signal**: Buy / Hold / Sell indication
+- **Time Period Analyzed**: [Date range]
+
+### 2. Transaction Summary Table
+```
+Period: Last 6 Months
+Total Transactions: [N]
+Total Buy Transactions: [N] ($[Amount])
+Total Sell Transactions: [N] ($[Amount])
+Net Insider Activity: $[Amount]
+Net Sentiment Score: [+0.XX or -0.XX]
+```
+
+### 3. Significant Transactions (Top 10)
+Detailed table with context for each major transaction
+
+### 4. Insider Category Breakdown
+Analysis by executive officers, board members, and major shareholders
+
+### 5. Ownership Trend Analysis
+Current ownership % and historical trend (4 quarters)
+
+### 6. Timing & Pattern Analysis
+- Stock price context during trading periods
+- Identified bullish or bearish patterns
+- Seasonal or cyclical factors
+
+### 7. Red Flags & Concerns
+- List any identified warning signs
+- Severity assessment
+- Recommended monitoring
+
+### 8. Comparison to Peers
+Brief comparison of insider sentiment vs. industry peers (if available)
+
+### 9. Historical Context
+- How current activity compares to historical baseline
+- Notable changes in behavior
+- Track record of insider signals
+
+### 10. Investment Implications
+- Overall assessment and confidence level
+- Key bullish factors from insider activity
+- Key bearish factors or concerns
+- Recommended action
+- Monitoring plan for future activity
+
+### 11. Data Sources Used
+- SEC EDGAR filings referenced
+- Date range of analysis
+- Number of Form 4 filings reviewed
+
+## Interpretation Guidelines
+
+### When Insider Buying is STRONGLY Bullish
+1. Multiple insiders buying in 1-2 week period
+2. CEO making unusually large purchase
+3. Buying after significant stock decline (>20%)
+4. Insiders buying with personal cash (not option exercises)
+5. First-time buyers or return to buying after long gap
+
+### When Insider Buying is MODERATELY Bullish
+1. Single insider making meaningful purchase
+2. Regular accumulation pattern
+3. Buying at all-time highs (conviction in further growth)
+4. Board member purchases
+
+### When Insider Selling is LESS Concerning
+1. 10b5-1 pre-arranged plan sales
+2. Small percentage of holdings (<5%)
+3. Regular quarterly pattern
+4. Diversification after large stock appreciation
+5. Tax payments or estate planning
+
+### When Insider Selling is CONCERNING
+1. Clustered selling by multiple executives
+2. CEO/CFO selling >25% of holdings
+3. Selling despite stock decline
+4. No 10b5-1 plan indicated
+5. Selling shortly before negative news
+
+### Signal Reliability Factors
+- **Sample size**: More insiders trading = stronger signal
+- **Magnitude**: Larger $ amounts = stronger signal
+- **Timing**: Unusual timing = stronger signal
+- **Context**: Contrarian trades (buying weakness) = stronger signal
+- **Track record**: Historically accurate insiders = stronger signal
+
+## Usage Examples
+
+### Example 1: Basic Analysis
+```
+User: /insider-trading NVDA
+
+Claude: Pulls the last 6 months of NVDA Form 4 filings and reports net
+open-market buys vs. sells, separates 10b5-1 plan sales from discretionary
+trades, flags clustered buying, and closes with the signal block.
+```
+
+### Example 2: Before Earnings
+```
+User: /insider-trading AAPL --period "before-earnings"
+
+Claude: Examines trading in the 30–60 days before the most recent earnings
+release and states whether anything beyond scheduled 10b5-1 sales occurred.
+```
+
+### Example 3: Red Flag Detection
+```
+User: /insider-trading ABC --focus red-flags
+
+Claude: Checks each red-flag pattern above (large % of holdings sold,
+clustered director exits, selling into a decline) and reports which fired,
+with the filing dates that support each.
+```
+
+## Integration Notes
+
+- Combine with /stock-eval for complete due diligence
+- Use /institutional-ownership for full insider + institutional picture
+- Feed analysis to /report-generator for visual charts of insider activity
+- Best used monthly or after significant insider filing activity
+- Particularly valuable when analyzing small-mid cap stocks (insiders have more edge)
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- 3+ insiders file Form 4 sells within a 30-day window OR CEO sells >5% of holdings
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- CEO/CFO initiate new purchases >$1M within 30 days
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
+- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
+- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
+
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+**Score Guide**: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+**Confidence**: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+**Horizon**: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.