@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.0 → 2.7.2

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/full-report/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: full-report
+description: Run InvestSkill analysis modules on a stock at configurable depth and compile a professional HTML report saved to the output/ directory
+---
+
+# Full Report — Comprehensive Stock Analysis Orchestrator
+
+Orchestrate InvestSkill analysis modules on one ticker at your chosen depth, synthesize findings into a unified investment thesis with composite scoring, and produce a standalone professional HTML report with interactive Chart.js visualizations.
+
+## Depth Flags
+
+Select how many modules to run with `--depth`:
+
+| Flag | Modules | Best For |
+|------|---------|----------|
+| `--depth quick` | 5 core modules | Rapid screen, time-constrained due diligence |
+| `--depth standard` | 10 modules | Balanced research before initiating a position |
+| `--depth comprehensive` | All 15 modules | Full pre-commitment due diligence (default) |
+
+---
+
+## Module Sets by Depth
+
+### Quick (5 modules)
+
+| # | Module | Focus |
+|---|--------|-------|
+| 1 | `stock-eval` | Company overview, competitive position, relative valuation |
+| 2 | `technical-analysis` | MA, RSI, MACD, volume, support/resistance |
+| 3 | `stock-valuation` | DCF intrinsic value (bear/base/bull), P/E, EV/EBITDA, peer multiples |
+| 4 | `insider-trading` | SEC Form 4 patterns, net insider sentiment |
+| 5 | `earnings-call-analysis` | Management tone, guidance quality, key themes |
+
+### Standard (10 modules — Quick + 5 more)
+
+| # | Module | Focus |
+|---|--------|-------|
+| 6 | `institutional-ownership` | 13F holdings, smart money flows |
+| 7 | `competitor-analysis` | Moat, market share, Porter's Five Forces |
+| 8 | `sector-analysis` | Sector rotation, relative strength |
+| 9 | `options-analysis` | IV, Put/Call ratio, max pain, strategies |
+| 10 | `short-interest` | Short ratio, squeeze risk, days-to-cover |
+
+### Comprehensive (15 modules — Standard + 5 more)
+
+| # | Module | Focus |
+|---|--------|-------|
+| 11 | `bear-case` | Short-seller red-team, Thesis-Killers, downside target |
+| 12 | `catalyst-calendar` | Dated events in the next 90 days and their expected impact |
+| 13 | `economics-analysis` | Macro environment, rate sensitivity |
+| 14 | `financial-report-analyst` | 10-K/10-Q deep dive, risk factors |
+| 15 | `dividend-analysis` | Yield, payout ratio, sustainability |
+
+---
+
+## Research Process (5 Phases)
+
+Modules are grouped into phases regardless of depth. Earlier phases inform later-phase assumptions.
+
+### Phase 1 — Business & Competitive Foundation
+
+Establish qualitative and quantitative foundation before attempting valuation.
+
+- **stock-eval** — Company overview, competitive position, relative valuation vs. peers
+- **competitor-analysis** *(standard+)* — Moat depth, Porter's Five Forces, pricing power
+
+Output: **Business Quality Score (0–10)**
+Score reflects durability of competitive advantages, financial health, and consistency of returns.
+
+### Phase 2 — Valuation
+
+Determine intrinsic and relative worth of the business.
+
+- **stock-valuation** — DCF intrinsic value with Bull/Base/Bear scenarios, plus P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S, P/FCF peer multiples
+
+Output: **Valuation Score (0–10)** — 10 = deep discount to intrinsic value; 5 = fair value; 0 = extreme overvaluation.
+
+### Phase 3 — Market Signals
+
+Understand what sophisticated market participants are signaling.
+
+- **insider-trading** — SEC Form 4 patterns, net insider sentiment
+- **institutional-ownership** *(standard+)* — Smart money 13F changes, concentration
+- **earnings-call-analysis** — Management tone, guidance quality, forward signals
+
+Output: **Market Signal Score (0–10)** — High = insider buying + institutional accumulation + positive management tone.
+
+### Phase 4 — Technical Timing
+
+Identify current technical setup to optimize entry timing.
+
+- **technical-analysis** — Trend structure, support/resistance, volume, momentum
+- **sector-analysis** *(standard+)* — Sector rotation, relative strength vs. benchmark
+
+Output: **Technical Setup Score (0–10)** — Strong (8–10), Moderate (4–7), Weak (0–3).
+
+### Phase 5 — Risk Assessment
+
+Quantify downside risks and positioning pressure.
+
+- **short-interest** *(standard+)* — Short positioning, days-to-cover, squeeze risk
+- **options-analysis** *(standard+)* — Implied volatility, put/call ratios, options flow
+- **economics-analysis** *(comprehensive)* — Macro environment, rate sensitivity
+- **financial-report-analyst** *(comprehensive)* — 10-K/10-Q risk factors
+- **bear-case** *(comprehensive)* — Short-seller red-team: Thesis-Killers and a downside target. Its downside target sets the Bear scenario in the Valuation Summary and Exit Strategy, its Thesis-Killers become the Bear Case section of the thesis narrative, and the Thesis Invalidation checks whether they are refuted
+- **catalyst-calendar** *(comprehensive)* — Dated events in the next 90 days and their expected price impact. High-impact binary events lower the Risk Profile score, and the dated events populate "next catalyst dates" in the Monitoring Plan
+
+Output: **Risk Profile Score (0–10)** — Inverse of risk: Low risk = high score (8–10), High risk = low score (0–3).
+
+---
+
+## Composite Scoring Framework
+
+```
+Full Report Score = Weighted Composite
+
+Component                Weight    Sub-Score (0-10)
+─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+Business Quality          25%      [Phase 1 modules]
+Valuation                 25%      [Phase 2 modules]
+Market Signals            20%      [Phase 3 modules]
+Technical Setup           15%      [Phase 4 modules]
+Risk Profile              15%      [Phase 5 modules]
+─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+COMPOSITE SCORE          100%      X.X / 10
+
+Composite Interpretation:
+8.0–10.0  → Strong Buy   (all signals aligned)
+6.5–7.9   → Buy          (most signals positive)
+5.0–6.4   → Hold/Watch   (mixed signals)
+3.5–4.9   → Underweight  (mostly negative signals)
+0.0–3.4   → Sell/Avoid   (strong negative signals)
+```
+
+Sub-score derivation:
+- Business Quality: average of moat score (competitor-analysis) + financial strength (stock-eval)
+- Valuation: 10 = deep discount to intrinsic value; 5 = at fair value; 0 = extreme overvaluation
+- Market Signals: weighted average of insider, institutional, and earnings call scores
+- Technical Setup: Strong=8–10, Moderate=4–7, Weak=0–3
+- Risk Profile: inverse of risk — Low risk = 8–10, High risk = 0–3; at comprehensive depth this includes the `bear-case` downside severity and the `catalyst-calendar` event risk
+
+When running quick or standard depth, scores for missing modules default to neutral (5.0) and are flagged as "not assessed" in the scorecard.
+
+---
+
+## Conflict Resolution
+
+When signals conflict across modules, apply these rules:
+
+- **Fundamental overrides technical**: Business quality and intrinsic value take precedence over short-term price action.
+- **Consensus overrides outlier**: When 4 of 5 phases agree on direction, document the outlier but do not let it dominate the composite score.
+- **Document all conflicts explicitly**: Never suppress conflicting signals. Present the full bull and bear case and explain how the weighting resolves the conflict.
+- **Flag unresolvable conflicts**: When signals are deeply contradictory (e.g., strong fundamentals + extreme overvaluation + heavy insider selling), flag as "Conflicted — Monitor Only" until resolution.
+
+---
+
+## Investment Thesis Narrative
+
+Every full-report output must include a narrative investment thesis structured as:
+
+1. **Investment Thesis** (2–3 paragraphs): What does the company do, why is it a compelling or poor investment now, and what is the key insight driving the thesis?
+2. **Bull Case** (3–5 quantifiable reasons with supporting evidence from phase outputs)
+3. **Bear Case** (3–5 specific risks with probability assessment and potential intrinsic value impact)
+4. **Composite Score Card** (visual table with all component scores, weighted scores, and interpretation)
+5. **Valuation Summary** (intrinsic value per share, current price, margin of safety, upside/downside % per scenario)
+6. **Entry Strategy** (technical setup description, ideal entry range, position sizing: Aggressive 5–7% / Moderate 2–4% / Starter 1–2%)
+7. **Exit Strategy** (base/bull/bear price targets, stop-loss level, time horizon)
+8. **Monitoring Plan** (key metrics to track quarterly, thesis-changing events, early warning signals, next catalyst dates)
+
+---
+
+## HTML Report Structure
+
+The output file is a standalone HTML document (no external dependencies except CDN Chart.js):
+
+- **Cover page** — ticker, price, date, depth flag used, overall composite score, recommendation
+- **Sidebar TOC** — sticky navigation linking to each section
+- **Analysis sections** — one per executed module plus final synthesis
+- **Interactive charts** — MA overlay, RSI, MACD, volume, composite score radar, phase score bar
+- **Composite Score Card** — weighted multi-factor scorecard with color coding
+- **Signal block** — standardized investment signal at report end
+
+### Design Principles
+
+- Clean, minimal design — white background, navy accents, Inter/system font
+- Data-dense tables with clear visual hierarchy
+- Color coding: green = bullish, amber = neutral, red = bearish
+- Print-friendly (no fixed sidebars when printing)
+- Self-contained: one `.html` file, no local assets
+
+---
+
+## Usage
+
+```
+/full-report AAPL
+/full-report NVDA --depth quick
+/full-report MSFT --depth standard
+/full-report TSLA --depth comprehensive --lang zh-TW
+/full-report AMZN --output ~/Desktop/
+```
+
+**Arguments:**
+- `<TICKER>` — required, any US-listed stock
+- `--depth` — `quick` | `standard` | `comprehensive` (default: `comprehensive`)
+- `--lang` — output language, default `en`, supports `zh-TW`, `zh-CN`, `ja`
+- `--output` — custom save path, default `output/`
+
+---
+
+## Output File Naming
+
+```
+output/<TICKER>_report_<YYYY-MM-DD>.html
+```
+
+Example: `output/AAPL_report_2025-06-19.html`
+
+---
+
+## Workflow
+
+1. Parse `--depth` flag and determine which modules to run
+2. Gather all available data for `<TICKER>` (financials, price, filings, macro)
+3. Execute modules in phase order; each phase's output informs the next
+4. Compute composite weighted score (0–10) using framework above
+5. Build investment thesis narrative with bull/bear case
+6. Render complete HTML with all sections, charts, and scorecard
+7. Write file to output path and confirm location
+
+---
+
+## Data Verification
+
+**Open the report with a `Data & Sources` header** (see [Data & Accuracy](https://yennanliu.github.io/InvestSkill/data-and-accuracy.html)) so provenance is explicit:
+
+```
+Data & Sources
+  As of:      <date the figures represent>
+  Source:     <primary docs — SEC EDGAR 10-K/10-Q, company IR, FRED, …>
+  Retrieval:  <pasted by user | web/tool retrieval | model memory>
+  Confidence: <HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW>
+```
+
+Before rendering the final report, verify:
+- The `Data & Sources` header is present and the Retrieval/Confidence are honest (flag "model memory" as LOW)
+- All executed modules returned scores (not blank)
+- Scores are within 0–10 range
+- Weighted composite arithmetic is correct (weights sum to 100%)
+- Missing modules for quick/standard depth are flagged as "not assessed"
+- No data older than 90 days used without explicit warning
+
+**Then run `fact-check` on the composite** (every figure the modules produced, verified against the filing and market data, with citations), **and hand `result-validator` two separate things**: the *corrected composite* as the analysis to validate (so its "Original Score" is the investment score, not the Verification Score), and the fact-check *ledger and Verification Score* as evidence for its Data Quality dimension. Include both scores in the report footer, labelled — a composite thesis should never ship without this verification-and-validation pass.
+
+---
+
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+The composite thesis is only as good as its weakest well-weighted module. After the final synthesis, state what would reverse the composite call:
+
+**If the composite is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- Any module weighted ≥ 15% flips from BULLISH to BEARISH at the next re-run (name the module and the metric that would flip it)
+- The `bear-case` module's Thesis-Killers are *not* refuted — a bull composite that cannot answer its own red-team is not bullish, it is unexamined
+- Price rises far enough that the valuation modules' fair-value range is exceeded while the fundamental modules are unchanged (multiple expansion doing all the work)
+
+**If the composite is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- The specific deterioration that drove the low-scoring modules reverses (margins re-expand, guidance is raised, insider selling stops)
+- Valuation falls below the bear-case downside target with fundamentals stable (the bad news is priced)
+- Two or more independent modules (e.g. `insider-trading` + `institutional-ownership`) turn positive together
+
+**Re-run this report when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release (every module's inputs change)
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from the level in the `Data & Sources` header
+- [ ] Any single module's signal flips
+- [ ] 90 days have elapsed
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+End with the standard signal block after the final synthesis section:
+
+```
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/fundamental-analysis/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: fundamental-analysis
+description: Deep fundamental analysis of US stocks using financial statements
+---
+
+# Fundamental Analysis
+
+> **This skill has been merged into `stock-eval`.** Use `/us-stock-analysis:stock-eval` for comprehensive fundamental + quality + valuation analysis.
+
+## Quick Reference — Key Ratios
+
+| Ratio | Formula | What It Measures |
+|-------|---------|-----------------|
+| **P/E** (Price-to-Earnings) | Market Price / EPS | How much investors pay per dollar of earnings; compare to peers and history |
+| **P/B** (Price-to-Book) | Market Price / Book Value per Share | Premium over net asset value; useful for financials and asset-heavy businesses |
+| **P/S** (Price-to-Sales) | Market Cap / Revenue | Valuation relative to revenue; useful when earnings are negative or depressed |
+| **EV/EBITDA** | Enterprise Value / EBITDA | Capital-structure-neutral earnings multiple; standard M&A and cross-sector benchmark |
+| **ROE** (Return on Equity) | Net Income / Shareholders' Equity | Profitability relative to equity book value; decompose with DuPont for quality assessment |
+| **ROIC** (Return on Invested Capital) | NOPAT / Invested Capital | True economic return on all capital deployed; compare to WACC to assess value creation |
+| **Current Ratio** | Current Assets / Current Liabilities | Short-term liquidity; >1.5x generally healthy; <1.0x signals potential liquidity stress |
+| **D/E** (Debt-to-Equity) | Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity | Financial leverage; higher ratio = more risk but also more return amplification |
+
+For the full analysis framework — income statement line-item breakdown, working capital cycle, DuPont decomposition, cash conversion cycle, Porter's Five Forces, Piotroski F-Score, DCF, ROIC/WACC, and risk matrix — use `/us-stock-analysis:stock-eval`.
+
+---
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- revenue growth decelerates below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters AND gross margin contracts >200bps
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- revenue reaccelerates >15% AND margin expansion resumes
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
+- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
+- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
+
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.