@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.0 → 2.7.2

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,456 @@
+---
+name: earnings-call-analysis
+description: Analyze earnings call transcripts for sentiment, key themes, and management tone
+---
+
+# Earnings Call Analysis
+
+## ⚠️ Data Verification — Do This Before Any Analysis
+
+Before running any analysis, always retrieve the latest market data for the ticker:
+
+1. **Fetch current price** — get the live price, 52-week range, and market cap through the host's own data path. In a host that splits roles, delegate the request with an exact brief (ticker, fields, as-of date) rather than searching from this step. Never assume a price from training data.
+2. **Confirm key figures** — recent earnings, revenue, key ratios (P/E, P/S, etc.) as applicable to this skill.
+3. **State your data source** — fill in the `Data & Sources` header (next section) so the origin, as-of date, retrieval path, and confidence of every figure are explicit at the top of the output.
+4. **Stop on missing data** — if a figure cannot be retrieved through the host's data path, name what is missing and stop; the analysis does not run on remembered values:
+
+> ⚠️ **Data unavailable.** <list the figures this analysis could not retrieve>. Those fields are reported as missing and are not estimated — retrieval is a precondition, not a nicety.
+
+Never substitute a remembered value for a retrieved one. Getting the number is the host data path's job — delegate it; asking the user to paste is the last resort only where the host has no retrieval path at all.
+
+---
+
+## 📋 Data & Sources Header — Open Every Output With It
+
+The first thing in the output is this provenance block, filled in — never left as placeholders. It is the standard documented on the [Data & Accuracy](https://yennanliu.github.io/InvestSkill/data-and-accuracy.html) page and the first thing `result-validator` looks for:
+
+```
+Data & Sources
+  As of:      <date the figures represent, e.g. 2026-06-30>
+  Source:     <primary docs — SEC EDGAR 10-K/10-Q, company IR, FRED, exchange data …>
+  Retrieval:  <delegated retrieval | web/tool retrieval | pasted by user>
+  Confidence: <HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW>
+```
+
+- Memory is not a retrieval path. A figure that was neither retrieved nor supplied by the user is reported as missing, never estimated — and never written into this block as if it had been retrieved.
+- Mixed sources: list each with its own as-of date rather than blending them.
+- Data the user pasted is reported as `pasted by user`; do not upgrade its confidence beyond what the user's own source supports.
+
+---
+
+Comprehensive analysis of earnings call transcripts to extract investment insights, management sentiment, strategic themes, and potential red flags.
+
+## Analysis Framework
+
+### 1. Executive Summary Analysis
+
+Extract and synthesize:
+- **Overall Sentiment**: Bullish / Neutral / Bearish
+- **Key Takeaways**: 3-5 most important points from the call
+- **Guidance Changes**: Raised / Maintained / Lowered / Withdrawn
+- **Surprise Factors**: Unexpected announcements or revelations
+- **Market-Moving Statements**: Comments likely to impact stock price
+
+### 2. Management Tone Assessment
+
+Analyze management's communication style and confidence:
+
+**Confidence Indicators**
+- Use of definitive language ("will", "committed", "confident")
+- Specific quantitative guidance with narrow ranges
+- Proactive discussion of challenges with clear solutions
+- Long-term vision and strategic clarity
+
+**Caution Indicators**
+- Hedging language ("may", "could", "hope", "expect")
+- Wide guidance ranges or lack of specific targets
+- Deflection of difficult questions
+- Focus on short-term rather than strategic issues
+
+**Red Flag Indicators**
+- Evasive or defensive responses
+- Frequent changes in financial definitions or metrics
+- Blame shifting to external factors
+- Reduced transparency or detail vs. prior quarters
+
+### 3. Key Themes Extraction
+
+Identify and categorize main topics discussed:
+
+**Strategic Initiatives**
+- New product launches or market expansion
+- M&A activity and integration plans
+- Digital transformation initiatives
+- Cost reduction or efficiency programs
+- R&D investments and innovation pipeline
+
+**Operational Performance**
+- Revenue drivers and growth catalysts
+- Margin trends and cost pressures
+- Supply chain and operational challenges
+- Customer trends and demand patterns
+- Geographic or segment performance variations
+
+**Market Dynamics**
+- Competitive landscape changes
+- Industry trends and macro headwinds/tailwinds
+- Regulatory or policy impacts
+- Technology disruptions or opportunities
+
+**Capital Allocation**
+- Dividend policy and changes
+- Share buyback plans
+- Capex priorities and timing
+- Debt management and balance sheet strategy
+
+### 4. Financial Guidance Analysis
+
+Compare and analyze forward-looking statements:
+
+**Guidance Components**
+- Revenue guidance: Range, growth rate, key assumptions
+- Earnings guidance: EPS range, margin expectations
+- Segment-specific guidance
+- Full-year vs. next-quarter outlook
+
+**Guidance Changes from Prior Quarter**
+- Magnitude of change (%)
+- Reasons cited for changes
+- Credibility assessment based on track record
+- Comparison to analyst consensus expectations
+
+**Key Assumptions**
+- Macro assumptions (GDP, rates, FX)
+- Volume and pricing assumptions
+- Cost inflation expectations
+- One-time items or adjustments
+
+### 5. Q&A Session Analysis
+
+Evaluate analyst questions and management responses:
+
+**Question Themes** (by frequency)
+1. [Most frequently asked topics]
+2. [Second most common questions]
+3. [Emerging concerns]
+
+**Management Response Quality**
+- Direct and substantive vs. evasive
+- Quantitative detail provided
+- Consistency with prepared remarks
+- New information revealed vs. scripted responses
+
+**Analyst Concerns**
+- Recurring questions (indicating lack of clarity)
+- Challenging questions about weaknesses
+- Questions about competitive threats
+- Governance or strategic direction inquiries
+
+**Notable Exchanges**
+- Tense or defensive moments
+- Particularly illuminating answers
+- Questions management avoided or deflected
+
+### 6. Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
+
+Compare with previous earnings calls (if available):
+
+**Messaging Consistency**
+- Changed narratives or priorities
+- Previously emphasized themes now downplayed
+- New strategic focuses or pivots
+
+**Tone Shifts**
+- More/less confident than prior quarters
+- Defensive vs. offensive positioning
+- Transparency level changes
+
+**Performance vs. Prior Guidance**
+- Did they deliver on previous commitments?
+- Track record of guidance accuracy
+- Patterns of over-promising or sandbagging
+
+### 7. Red Flags & Warning Signs
+
+Identify potential concerns:
+
+**Financial Red Flags**
+- Missed guidance for consecutive quarters
+- Declining margins despite revenue growth
+- Working capital deterioration
+- FCF significantly below net income
+- One-time charges becoming recurring
+
+**Operational Red Flags**
+- Customer concentration risks
+- Key executive departures
+- Product delays or quality issues
+- Market share losses
+- Failed M&A integrations
+
+**Communication Red Flags**
+- Lack of transparency or detail reduction
+- Frequent changes in reporting metrics
+- Aggressive accounting interpretations
+- Dismissive attitude toward legitimate concerns
+- Unrealistic optimism despite evidence
+
+**Governance Red Flags**
+- Board or management conflicts
+- Related-party transactions
+- Insider selling patterns
+- Lack of succession planning
+
+### 8. Investment Implications
+
+Synthesize analysis into actionable insights:
+
+**Overall Assessment**
+- Bullish / Neutral / Bearish sentiment justified by evidence
+- Confidence level in management's strategy and execution
+- Visibility and predictability of future performance
+
+**Key Investment Drivers**
+- Most important positive factors
+- Most significant risks and concerns
+- Catalysts for outperformance
+- Potential downside scenarios
+
+**Valuation Impact**
+- Likely direction of analyst estimate revisions
+- Impact on earnings growth rate expectations
+- Multiple expansion/contraction considerations
+- Fair value reassessment based on new information
+
+**Recommended Action**
+- Buy / Hold / Sell recommendation with rationale
+- Price target adjustment (if applicable)
+- Position sizing considerations
+- Time horizon for thesis to play out
+
+## Data Sources
+
+Reference the following sources when analyzing earnings calls:
+
+### Primary Sources
+- **SEC EDGAR 8-K Filings**: Official transcripts filed within 4 days of call
+  - Search: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
+  - Look for: Item 2.02 (Results of Operations and Financial Condition)
+
+- **Company Investor Relations**: Live webcasts and archived recordings
+  - Typically at: [company-website.com]/investors/earnings
+  - May include slides and supplemental materials
+
+### Transcript Services
+- **Seeking Alpha**: Free transcript archive with searchable database
+  - Format: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/[TICKER]/earnings/transcripts
+
+- **AlphaSense**: Premium transcript service with AI search (paid)
+- **Bloomberg Terminal**: Real-time transcripts and historical archive (paid)
+- **FactSet**: Transcript archive with analytics (paid)
+
+### Supplementary Information
+- **Earnings Press Release**: Published before call, contains prepared financial results
+- **Investor Presentation Slides**: Visual aids referenced during call
+- **10-Q/10-K Filings**: Detailed financials for context
+- **Prior Quarter Calls**: For comparison and trend analysis
+
+## Input Formats
+
+Accept earnings call data in the following formats:
+
+### Format 1: Transcript Text
+```
+Paste the full transcript text from the earnings call, including:
+- Corporate Participants section
+- Prepared Remarks
+- Q&A Session
+- Forward-Looking Statements disclaimer (if present)
+```
+
+### Format 2: Transcript URL
+```
+Provide URL to transcript:
+- Seeking Alpha URL
+- Company IR page URL
+- SEC EDGAR filing link
+```
+
+### Format 3: Call Details for Manual Analysis
+```
+Company: [Name]
+Ticker: [SYMBOL]
+Quarter: Q[1-4] [YEAR]
+Call Date: [MM/DD/YYYY]
+
+Key Questions to Focus On:
+- [Specific aspects to analyze]
+```
+
+## Output
+
+Provide comprehensive earnings call analysis report with:
+
+### 1. Call Metadata
+- Company name and ticker
+- Quarter and fiscal year
+- Call date and time
+- Participating executives
+- Transcript source
+
+### 2. Executive Summary (1-2 paragraphs)
+- Overall assessment and sentiment
+- Key takeaways (3-5 bullet points)
+- Investment implication (Buy/Hold/Sell)
+
+### 3. Management Tone Rating
+- Confidence Level: High / Medium / Low
+- Transparency: Excellent / Good / Fair / Poor
+- Notable tone characteristics
+- Supporting evidence (quotes)
+
+### 4. Key Themes (Ranked by Importance)
+For each theme:
+- Description
+- Management's stance
+- Supporting quotes
+- Investment relevance
+
+### 5. Guidance Analysis
+- Detailed guidance breakdown
+- Changes from prior guidance
+- Comparison to consensus estimates
+- Credibility assessment
+
+### 6. Q&A Insights
+- Top 5 analyst questions
+- Quality of management responses
+- New information revealed
+- Questions avoided or deflected
+
+### 7. Red Flags & Concerns
+- Identified warning signs (if any)
+- Severity assessment
+- Historical context
+- Recommended monitoring items
+
+### 8. Quarter-over-Quarter Changes
+- Messaging shifts
+- Tone differences
+- Strategic pivots
+- Performance vs. prior commitments
+
+### 9. Investment Recommendation
+- Overall sentiment: Bullish / Neutral / Bearish
+- Confidence level: High / Medium / Low
+- Key investment drivers (bullish case)
+- Key risks (bearish case)
+- Suggested action with rationale
+- Time horizon
+
+### 10. Notable Quotes
+5-10 most significant quotes from management with context
+
+## Analysis Guidelines
+
+### Best Practices
+
+1. **Read the Entire Transcript**: Don't rely only on prepared remarks; Q&A often reveals more
+2. **Compare to Prior Calls**: Context is critical for identifying changes
+3. **Cross-Reference with Financials**: Verify claims against actual 10-Q/10-K data
+4. **Watch for Language Patterns**: Hedging, definitiveness, evasiveness
+5. **Note What's NOT Said**: Absence of previously discussed topics is meaningful
+6. **Consider the Audience**: Different messages for different analyst types
+
+### Common Pitfalls to Avoid
+
+1. **Over-Optimism Bias**: Management is inherently promotional
+2. **Recency Bias**: One quarter doesn't make a trend
+3. **Cherry-Picking**: Consider full context, not just favorable quotes
+4. **Ignoring Tone**: What's said matters, but HOW it's said matters more
+5. **Missing Red Flags**: Defensiveness and evasion are important signals
+
+### Analyst Question Interpretation
+
+- **If analysts ask about guidance**: They may expect a beat or miss
+- **If questions focus on one issue**: It's likely a consensus concern
+- **If analysts challenge management**: Credibility may be in question
+- **If questions are softball**: Either results are stellar or relationships are managed
+
+## Usage Examples
+
+### Example 1: Basic Transcript Analysis
+```
+User: /earnings-call-analysis AAPL
+
+[Paste transcript text or provide URL]
+
+Claude analyzes the transcript and provides comprehensive report with all sections
+```
+
+### Example 2: Focused Analysis
+```
+User: /earnings-call-analysis TSLA --focus "production guidance,margin outlook"
+
+[Provide transcript]
+
+Claude emphasizes analysis of specified topics while still covering full call
+```
+
+### Example 3: Comparative Analysis
+```
+User: /earnings-call-analysis NVDA --compare Q3-2024
+
+[Provide current quarter transcript]
+
+Claude compares with prior quarter (Q3 2024) to highlight changes and trends
+```
+
+## Integration Notes
+
+- Can be used standalone or in conjunction with /stock-eval
+- Output can be fed to /report-generator for HTML/PDF export
+- Particularly valuable around earnings season (Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct)
+- Best used within 1-2 days of earnings release while market is digesting information
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- management lowers full-year guidance by >10% OR CEO/CFO departure announced within 30 days
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- major earnings beat >15% AND multi-year guidance raised significantly
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
+- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
+- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
+
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+**Score Guide**: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+**Confidence**: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+**Horizon**: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.